Unless something utterly dramatic happens, the UK is going to break 40C. Astonishing
A huge complex of concrete, infrastucture, cars, air con and jet engines gets hot you say ?
It won't just be Heathrow, you silly person
If the same location was wild land it would be 5/6 degrees cooler. Measuring temperatures in heat islands is a fantastic way to break temperature records.
Charlwood is quite rural.
Besides, not all "wild land" is cooler. Sandy grasslands round here are exceedingly hot.
Heathrow will not hold the record for long.
Santon Downham in Suffolk is often mentioned as being the hottest place in the UK, and that is very sandy and grassy.
Starmer went to a school that became private while he was there.
As that is the only piece of being "posh" that the Tory party have on SKS it continually appears in the hope that people have never investigated the detail.
For those who have investigated the detail it's a pack of lies that confirms (again) that the Tory party are dishonest.
A bit like Kemi's claim in the Telegraph: " I know what it's like flipping burgers at 16, on minimum wage, and then watching my pay slip away to taxes..."
The minimum wage didn't exist in 1996 (and would she have been paying income tax ?).
The personal allowance was only about 4k or so then so it's entirely possible. I worked in Tescos around the same time, and remember there being some tax.
She'd have to have been working full time throughout the whole year at McDonalds, while doing her A-levels. Even then, if she's working 40 hours (which is tough during A-Levels), she'd earn maybe £120 and still take home over £100.
That's not exactly watching your pay slip away to taxes.
🤨
For someone counting every penny and earning only £120 losing £20 to taxes does indeed feel like watching it slip away.
What's wrong with paying taxes? Services don't come for free you know.
Pay for the services then.
Taxes should be kept low, but too many services that ought to be privately paid for, are paid for out of taxes instead.
Oh, like hospitals? Fire stations?, schools? ICBMs? Why don't you talk some sense sometimes.
You might want to have a look at what proportion of taxes actually goes on ICBMs, schools, fire stations or the NHS and what proportion of taxes goes on stuff I'd quite happily oppose it going on.
Our taxes could be much, much lower, if our spending was lower.
Strategically, the problem is we spend an awful lot to keep over 65s in clover during the last 20 years of their lives. Both on the NHS, benefits and pensions (spend) and in removing NI and protecting house prices (tax).
That's where a rebalance is needed. It should more into education, science, R&D, infrastructure, defence and crime & justice.
Older citizens need to work more for longer (flexibly, of course) and use their own resources more.
Technically, we now spend an awful lot to keep over 66s in clover, as the pension age is being increased. But, yes, I agree with you and Bart about the need for a rebalance. We could increase the pension age further than current plans. We could build more houses and tax house price wealth.
Indeed how we rebalance is up for political debate, as you know I'm a keen advocate for building more houses etc and I'd be OK with taxing houses more and incomes less so long as taxes as a share of GDP goes down.
But some people ask "what would you cut" as if its a rhetorical question with no viable answer. Off the top of my head I just named half a dozen things I'd cut - all of which are on topics regularly discussed on this site.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Perhaps they all need to limit themselves to Reithian English, too.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
To give her the benefit of the doubt, "minimum wage" job is a fair shorthand for the work she was doing, even if it was just before the official minimum wage came in.
However, it is unlikely she paid much, if any tax, and suggesting that her low tax politics were formed because she was being taxed so highly is frankly bullshit.
Is it though? The income tax threshold was £4k in 1997 and the lower NI threshold about £3.2k.
So she'd have been paying both if she'd done it for more than a few months.
She'd have needed to work around 40 hours a week at £3 an hour for the whole year to be paying something like £20 tax on wages of £120. That's at the same time as doing A-levels, which are pretty time consuming.
Perhaps she was - I do know some people who did nothing but work/study, but even if she's really pushing it with the work hours, is tax of £20 from a £120 wage really that dramatic?
It *sounds* dramatic today, but of course this isn't corrected for inflation! So the rhetoric works all the better.
I really do wonder if it was a case of tax deducted on the assumption of FT work - which would be a pain, and an immediate one - and only reclaimed later, much later (if she understood the need to do it, and how to do it: I am not being disparaging, lots of people found tax intimidating).
The pb trustafarians never experienced paye? Even if she did get a rebate at the end, she'd still have paid tax on a week-by-week basis.
A better question is whether Kemi needed to work at McDonalds or it was just pin money in university vacs.
MRP poll out for Italy. Depending on the nature of the left alliance predicting anything from the right of centre alliance being just shy of a majority (with an increasingly unlikely big tent M5S-PD-Centrists and Leftists), to a right of centre (house) majority of 40 (PD-M5S no centrists, out of 400 seats), to a majority of 80 (PD-Centrists, with the state of M5S currently the more likely looking alliance).
"Bankok, Taiwan, Singapore, Seoul, Panama, Puerto Rico, Jamaica... Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
After all the chaos and angst of Brexit, Covid, Boris, Partygate, the Unjustified Banning of Leon on PB, once again Britain can walk talk, even swagger, in the hallways of the world, as bystanders whisper. admiringly
Truss would be Labour's preferred opponent, for sure. Mordaunt probably their least preferred of the three likely to make it. I reckon the final round is something like Sunak 135, Mordaunt 116, Truss 106 with Mordaunt winning the members, although I think Sunak is the strongest candidate and he could still beat Mordaunt given the resources behind his campaign and the fact that Mordaunt is still quite untested and could blow up.
Mordaunt has done a great deal of blowing up already, it's unlikely that she will stop doing so under the pressure of hustings and further TV appearances.
Not quite as much in the Navy as we were led to believe though.
To me, she seriously lacks substance. I don't agree with Truss's ideas on economic policy but at least she is offering a fairly clear alternative with some degree of coherence. I genuinely don't know what PM is offering as a package. Unfunded tax cuts which she doesn't seem to know what they would cost (principally the increase in personal allowances) but nothing inflationary, no sirree.
I agree, Mordaunt is vacuous and would be a very bad choice. The same is true of Truss but she is a more obvious fake and is exceptionally easy to dislike. Badenoch is much better than either of them, but still has a lot to learn (see the 'minimum wage' storm-in-a-teacup for a trivial illustration). She is nowhere near ready to be catapulted into No10 at a time of multiple national crises. .
That leaves one serious candidate. He's not great, but he's the only credible one left. It really is as simple as that.
Yep, its been that way since the start really. Only the Conhome polling suggested any real doubt.
In two and half years since getting a huge majority, the conservatives have delivered continuity Brownism. If Sunak gets the top job, you can make that five years.
The tories will never take power again in our lifetimes.
I disagree but I have to recognise that it is also possible. In my adult life (ie able to vote) there have been all of 2 changes of power. If there is another one in late 2024, early 2025 that may well see me out.
I've made this point before but the advantages of office seem to have increased sharply since 1979. You really need to screw up badly to get chucked out and when you do the political careers of all those at the top at that point are over. This idea that the the Tories can lose office to some minority Labour government, get a grip of themselves and then come swiftly back again is a dangerous delusion. If they lose they should count on being out of power for at least a decade.
There was an idea around 2010 that Labour required a period of time in opposition for renewal and that they'd be back when Cameron was exposed for being an empty suit. Seeing opposition as a choice to make is the ultimate in political self-indulgence and a party might find that a period in opposition stretches longer than they imagined.
David Wilcock @DavidTWilcock As someone else who worked at McDonalds in the mid-late 1990s, there was no burger flipping as grills were double-sided, and also no minimum wage.
Is that REALLY an attack line ?!
I once did a job "Flipping burgers" at Burgerking (About the same time that Kemi would have actually) , and yes no burgers were actually flipped. It's a fair expression to use if you're working in fast food.
To be honest I'm nervous about Kemi. She is a massive unknown quantity, which Rishi is not. But if this is the argument against Kemi - that she said she 'flipped' burgers when in fact the machines flipped them automatically - well I'm quite reassured.
Unless something utterly dramatic happens, the UK is going to break 40C. Astonishing
A huge complex of concrete, infrastucture, cars, air con and jet engines gets hot you say ?
It won't just be Heathrow, you silly person
If the same location was wild land it would be 5/6 degrees cooler. Measuring temperatures in heat islands is a fantastic way to break temperature records.
Charlwood is quite rural.
Besides, not all "wild land" is cooler. Sandy grasslands round here are exceedingly hot.
Heathrow will not hold the record for long.
From the unofficial stations you can already see the heat moving east and north - somewhere in the East Midlands is going to depose Cambridge, I suspect
If I were a Tory MP feeling particularly Machiavellian today I would be switching to Kemi to knock Liz Truss out of the race, particularly if I had been supporting TT.
Doubt it will happen but it would be hilarious.
I think there might well be some of that.
If it happens, then I hope Truss voters go to Kemi so we get a Sunak v Kemi run-off, which would probably be won by Kemi.
Sunak was always getting through the MPs and remains for me the Tories best hope of providing sane governance and having a shot at winning the election.
But - and its a big but - there is something intriguing about Badenoch. The idea of Sunak vs Badenoch for Tory leader is itself rather transformational, and the outcome potentially even more so.
I read various things about Kemi being on the right of the party and perhaps she is. But that she *exists* is not of the right, but points towards a more progressive modern Britain which is the antithesis of what the right of the Tory party wants.
There is that. But her social attitudes seem to be a very long way indeed from progressive. The prospect of the UK moving in the direction of a post-racial society is a very encouraging one - but it doesn't mean that right wing politics ceases.
The interesting thing is that we have the knuckle-dragging BF racists backing someone they want to deport because she is anti-woke. And I can imagine that a choice of Sunak or Badenoch would be hard to stomach for many Tory members.
But her mere presence is progressive - so if she ended up pandering to the people who want to marginalise people like her for their crime of being black and of being a woman, that would be unexpected.
People say all kinds of things to get elected. I don't expect they to pay more than lip service to a lot of those promises. Its like "eugh, Starmer lied to us". Yeah, he did you trot idiots. To get elected by you so that he can remove you.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
Fast forward to autumn. A man with a 750 million pound fortune is going around Britain telling people choosing between heat and eat that now is not the time for tax cuts. And not just a few of them. Millions.
He says he empathises with them and the poorest of them might get a further handout. When pressed on their plight he gets tetchy and irritable and refuses to answer some questions.
In what universe is that a recipe for election victory in England?
In what universe is that a recipe for election victory in [insert country of choice]?
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
ECMWF had a max of 38 C so far as I could see yesterday.
David Wilcock @DavidTWilcock As someone else who worked at McDonalds in the mid-late 1990s, there was no burger flipping as grills were double-sided, and also no minimum wage.
This is getting silly now.
I'm beginning to wish I'd never mentioned it.
But the bigger point - that it's largely the legislation of parties other than hers that has improved the lot of the lowest paid - is a reasonable one.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
"Bankok, Taiwan, Singapore, Seoul, Panama, Puerto Rico, Jamaica... Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
After all the chaos and angst of Brexit, Covid, Boris, Partygate, the Unjustified Banning of Leon on PB, once again Britain can walk talk, even swagger, in the hallways of the world, as bystanders whisper. admiringly
Is it not a banning offence to criticise the decisions of the moderators ?
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.
They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.
A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?
It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
A decent defence.
Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.
Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.
As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.
By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
Correction... It was the Thatcher Government that started the power grab over education. Blair just made it worse.
My strong subjective impression is that Truss would be terrible at projecting as PM via the media and gaining support from floating voters. The other three would be much better.
Agreed. Not always fair, but she herself acknowledged she doesnt present as well.
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.
They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.
A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?
It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
A decent defence.
Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.
Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.
As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.
By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
Her school was pretty good though. She was weaving a narrative to suit. Not (for me) a major crime to rework memories to support the notion of yourself you feel most comfortable with - it's a rare person who doesn't do that to some extent - but it can become a problem and I'd prefer whoever is PM not to be doing too much of it.
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
41C is very possible, 42C could just be out of reach. However, that front is progressing quite slowly so it’s still possible. Many models suggested a quicker movement of that front.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
Limited congrats, that was just the springboard for my 11.5 bet of 42+, which is just silly (but is a free bet now with the 40+ winnings)
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
Limited congrats, that was just the springboard for my 11.5 bet of 42+, which is just silly (but is a free bet now with the 40+ winnings)
fingers xed
Ooh. Good bet!
Rough guess you have a 20-30% chance of winning that 42C wager
There could easily be some random station in East Anglia, Lincs, that makes 42C as the rain/cloud stays west
Does anyone have any wisdom on whether warm air outlets attract said insects?
I've been playing with an efficient aircon, and using a reversible heatpump for cooling. Both of these involve air outlets as warm, or warmer than, ambient.
Congrats to @IshmaelZ for winning his temperature bet. I fear I had Normalcy Bias, just could not believe we'd get 40C even tho every model (almost) was saying Yes we will
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
Already there in much of the continent, 42C in Nantes in France and 43C in Northern Spain
Does anyone have any wisdom on whether warm air outlets attract said insects?
I've been playing with an efficient aircon, and using a reversible heatpump for cooling. Both of these involve air outlets as warm, or warmer than, ambient.
Any thoughts are welcome.
I’ve lived in villas with heat pumps for over 15 years, and never noticed any irregular insect activity in the vicinity of the air outlets.
David Wilcock @DavidTWilcock As someone else who worked at McDonalds in the mid-late 1990s, there was no burger flipping as grills were double-sided, and also no minimum wage.
Is that REALLY an attack line ?!
I once did a job "Flipping burgers" at Burgerking (About the same time that Kemi would have actually) , and yes no burgers were actually flipped. It's a fair expression to use if you're working in fast food.
To be honest I'm nervous about Kemi. She is a massive unknown quantity, which Rishi is not. But if this is the argument against Kemi - that she said she 'flipped' burgers when in fact the machines flipped them automatically - well I'm quite reassured.
It's a step up from "she mentioned minimum wage, but actually she probably earned less, because minimum wage didn't exist".
Michael Gove quotes De Gaulle and his “certain idea of France.” Says the next PM must have a certain idea of the U.K. This, is he says, is a multiethnic state that works because it has strong institutions.
State should do fewer things but better. “I am a Hamiltonian not a Jeffersonian.” The government has been “ knocked off course” by people with stronger narratives.
Globalisation led to greater inequality which the state has to play a role in ameliorating. Tories should be party of those on “average and below average” wages. Wokery is being driven by people who want a bigger state and don’t believe in the nation.
Making the point that in referring (accurately) to "decades of low growth" the leadership contenders (and esp Truss) are debunking the notion that Tory government is somehow better for the economy.
Important because if this myth can be punctured they will find it harder to win elections from now on - starting with the next one.
Didn't Blair and Brown (aided and abetted by the Conservative Party) puncture this in the 90s? It's cyclical, and I think the public are more willing to believe the Conservatives are generally better for the economy until evidence to the contrary is found. Once found, give it a couple of leaders and the public are right back to believing the Conservatives are better for the economy.
They were in the process of doing so but the Crash put a stop to that and we ended up with an even harder coding of "Tories = Better Economy".
The long run comparison indicates it makes little difference to growth whether we have a Labour or a Conservative government. Caveat: there's been a lot more Con than Lab so to some extent Con just tends to the national performance (which is relatively poor).
But anyway, point is, politicians wildly exaggerate the impact they can have on sustainable GDP.
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
If I were a Tory MP feeling particularly Machiavellian today I would be switching to Kemi to knock Liz Truss out of the race, particularly if I had been supporting TT.
Doubt it will happen but it would be hilarious.
I think there might well be some of that.
If it happens, then I hope Truss voters go to Kemi so we get a Sunak v Kemi run-off, which would probably be won by Kemi.
Sunak was always getting through the MPs and remains for me the Tories best hope of providing sane governance and having a shot at winning the election.
But - and its a big but - there is something intriguing about Badenoch. The idea of Sunak vs Badenoch for Tory leader is itself rather transformational, and the outcome potentially even more so.
I read various things about Kemi being on the right of the party and perhaps she is. But that she *exists* is not of the right, but points towards a more progressive modern Britain which is the antithesis of what the right of the Tory party wants.
There is that. But her social attitudes seem to be a very long way indeed from progressive. The prospect of the UK moving in the direction of a post-racial society is a very encouraging one - but it doesn't mean that right wing politics ceases.
The interesting thing is that we have the knuckle-dragging BF racists backing someone they want to deport because she is anti-woke. And I can imagine that a choice of Sunak or Badenoch would be hard to stomach for many Tory members.
But her mere presence is progressive - so if she ended up pandering to the people who want to marginalise people like her for their crime of being black and of being a woman, that would be unexpected.
People say all kinds of things to get elected. I don't expect they to pay more than lip service to a lot of those promises. Its like "eugh, Starmer lied to us". Yeah, he did you trot idiots. To get elected by you so that he can remove you.
‘Unexpected’ - hmmm perhaps. I think it illustrates that for the right wing elites, whether they’re born in to it or whether they climb their way up the greasy pole, cutting taxes and slashing the state to maximise their personal money pile far transcends any notion of class, ethnic or racial - indeed human - solidarity or empathy.
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.
They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.
A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?
It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
A decent defence.
Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.
Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.
As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.
By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
Her school was pretty good though. She was weaving a narrative to suit. Not (for me) a major crime to rework memories to support the notion of yourself you feel most comfortable with - it's a rare person who doesn't do that to some extent - but it can become a problem and I'd prefer whoever is PM not to be doing too much of it.
Not to mention the national curriculum and associated changes were introduced by Ken Baker in the Thatcher governments, long before Blair. ETA just in time for Liz Truss if I've got her age right.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
I agree entirely. Popular suburbs around and just outside the M25 should be able to expand, rather than people living there pulling up the gates behind them.
In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.
They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.
A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?
It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
A decent defence.
Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.
Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.
As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.
By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
The problem was lack of resources from the government of the time, not the politics of the LEA.
Completely disagreed.
Resources spent on education through the 80s was the same orhigher as a proportion of GDP than it is now. Politically motivated LEAs made some terrible choices despite having the resources, because they could blame central government for anything that went wrong while pushing their own agenda unaccountably and without competition.
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
That is a fair slap at the Germans - they thought that Leopard was a shoe in for the tanks at least.
I suspect that the various manoeuvrings regarding suppling arms and spare at the beginning of the Ukraine War figured into that decision.
Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.
Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
Yes. See also privatised train companies.
The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.
Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.
There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.
People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
I'm not clear on which candidate Sunak would rather face wrt the membership vote out of Mordaunt and Truss. Any ideas?
I would have said Truss originally, now I suspect Penny.
Rishi and Penny both have drawbacks to the membership - the former on tax, the latter on ‘woke’. Whereas Truss speaks to member sensibilities more on tax and Brexit.
Rishi could beast Penny in a 1 on 1 debate based on previous performances. Truss isn’t a great debater but just needs to keep doubling down on membership-friendly issues and she’ll scrape through.
Sunak isn’t guaranteed to win a membership vote against any of them IMHO, but he can pivot to being the attractive choice over Penny IMHO (experience, competence etc), whereas it’s harder against Truss.
Surely you can win a competency battle against Truss - after all we don't have a magic money tree and Corporation Tax cuts won't help anyone battle the energy price crisis.
He's not in a competency battle, he's in a 'please the members' battle.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
I agree entirely. Popular suburbs around and just outside the M25 should be able to expand, rather than people living there pulling up the gates behind them.
In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
No, we need to rebalance the nation and that means new homes and even new towns up north. We cannot go on concentrating economic activity and prosperity in the south-east.
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
That’s good news. I wonder what Poland might have planned for their old tanks? 🇺🇦
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
That is a fair slap at the Germans - they thought that Leopard was a shoe in for the tanks at least.
I suspect that the various manoeuvrings regarding suppling arms and spare at the beginning of the Ukraine War figured into that decision.
Perhaps also strings attached to the purchase (more likely from Germany), and future manufacturing offsets offered (likely better from S. Korea) ? And almost certainly delivered at a faster pace than the German equivalent.
There will be an upgrade to the K2 available in fairly short order, so some of this delivery might well be sold on to other eastern European states, and replaced with the newer kit.
The balance of power over the next few years is definitely tilting away form Russia, in any event.
I agree with OGH's posts on this site: Badenoch is the candidate Labour is likely to fear the most.
As a relative unknown she has the capacity to represent something entirely new - an apparent change of party, even. This is certainly a risk, but when you have been in government for 12 years, the electorate are going to want something new anyway, so it's worth a try.
With polling suggesting that Sunak could easily lose to any of the other candidates - making clear that this is unlikely to be a coronation - Tory MPs should make sure that both candidates in the final two are potential PMs they would be happy with. A Mordaunt-led Conservative party solves none of the professed problems in Boris Johnson's leadership style, and Liz Truss, while in my view a perfectly competent administrator (I appreciate I am in the minority here), is not a general election winner. Sunak vs Badenoch would be much more interesting.
On the Britain First endorsement: Sunder Katwala on Twitter notes Britain First's Telegram channel suggests this to be a bit of 4Chan-style trolling.
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
That is a fair slap at the Germans - they thought that Leopard was a shoe in for the tanks at least.
I suspect that the various manoeuvrings regarding suppling arms and spare at the beginning of the Ukraine War figured into that decision.
Perhaps also strings attached to the purchase (more likely from Germany), and manufacturing offsets offered (likely better from S. Korea) ?
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
I agree entirely. Popular suburbs around and just outside the M25 should be able to expand, rather than people living there pulling up the gates behind them.
In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
Changing the planning category of golf courses to development land, meaning that you could suddenly build on them, but also can't easily build more on greenfield sites would be one of the earliest technical changes of my administration, were I ever to become prime minister - talk about annoying *all* the right people...
S. Korea reportedly picks up a major export order for its MBT from under the noses of the Germans. Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670 By South Korean press; On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
That’s good news. I wonder what Poland might have planned for their old tanks? 🇺🇦
Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.
Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
Yes. See also privatised train companies.
The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.
Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.
There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.
People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
We've covered this before - it just wasn't possible because of the way the Government wished to retain the real assets and the way the franchise system was split up...
And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.
Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)
(not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.
Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.
Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.
Why does this matter?
Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.
They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.
A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?
It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
A decent defence.
Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.
Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.
As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.
By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
The problem was lack of resources from the government of the time, not the politics of the LEA.
Completely disagreed.
Resources spent on education through the 80s was the same orhigher as a proportion of GDP than it is now. Politically motivated LEAs made some terrible choices despite having the resources, because they could blame central government for anything that went wrong while pushing their own agenda unaccountably and without competition.
Any evidence to back that assertion up?
1990 education as percentage of GDP was 4.31% 2022 education as percentage of GDP is 4.20%
Higher spending then, but the atrocious LEAs are nerfed now.
NEW from Labour: The Forde Report completely debunks the conspiracy theory that the 2017 general election was somehow deliberately sabotaged by Labour Party staff opposed to Corbyn's leadership.
Quote from Forde: In Labour in 2017 there was a "debilitating inertia, factionalism and infighting which then distracted from what all profess to be a common cause - electoral success."
"The evidence clearly demonstrated that a vociferous faction in the Party sees any issues regarding antisemitism as exaggerated by the Right to embarrass the Left. The authors of the Leaked Report were supportive of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, enthusiastic and fully committed.”
Signs you've spent too long mucking about on Betfair: You are forced to put a pound on (already eliminated) Jeremy Hunt as Tory leader, because you've run out of funds and he's your biggest negative exposure and you need it cleared to keep playing the market.
Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.
Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
Yes. See also privatised train companies.
The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.
Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.
There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.
People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
We've covered this before - it just wasn't possible because of the way the Government wished to retain the real assets and the way the franchise system was split up...
Aye they screwed it up.
It was possible, but the Government shouldn't have retained the assets. Retaining the assets isn't how proper privatisation is done.
Japan did privatisation better, they privatised the assets, they removed subsidies, and they have a better system without subsidies than we do.
It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.
Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.
She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
I agree entirely. Popular suburbs around and just outside the M25 should be able to expand, rather than people living there pulling up the gates behind them.
In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
No, we need to rebalance the nation and that means new homes and even new towns up north. We cannot go on concentrating economic activity and prosperity in the south-east.
I don't see any reason we can't encourage growth in the north while continuing to allow our economic powerhouse to grow. We live in a globalised world after all.
All the green belt does is cause people to commute to London from towns further away than the green belt. And increase the values of properties in or close to the protected areas. It does bugger all to help northern economies.
Paging TSE....Westworld confirmed unwatchable shit. After reasonably promising start, now descended into utterly stupid bollocks. It what I imagine Boris would come up with tasksd with writing the plot.
If Sunak is likely to lose in the members' ballot whoever he's up against, it provides an incentive for his backers to vote for the person they could live with winning rather than the person they think is beatable.
"We have also seen evidence of denialism about antisemitism amongst some on the Left, who asserted that the issue was being exaggerated to undermine the leader..
Signs you've spent too long mucking about on Betfair: You are forced to put a pound on (already eliminated) Jeremy Hunt as Tory leader, because you've run out of funds and he's your biggest negative exposure and you need it cleared to keep playing the market.
Sigh.
I've got £1 I need to lay on Javid at 1000-1 if anyone else needs to free up their book.
Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.
Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
Yes. See also privatised train companies.
The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.
Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.
There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.
People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
We've covered this before - it just wasn't possible because of the way the Government wished to retain the real assets and the way the franchise system was split up...
Aye they screwed it up.
It was possible, but the Government shouldn't have retained the assets. Retaining the assets isn't how proper privatisation is done.
Japan did privatisation better, they privatised the assets, they removed subsidies, and they have a better system without subsidies than we do.
Problem is the bits without subsidies (I believe the ECML and WCML are highly profitable again) could never make money.
The ECML has to be seriously profitable at the moment - I wasn't able to reserve seats on any train last Friday morning because all seats (first and standard class) were fully booked for all services between 10am and 2pm.
If Sunak is likely to lose in the members' ballot whoever he's up against, it provides an incentive for his backers to vote for the person they could live with winning rather than the person they think is beatable.
True but ideally we'd have an another poll from Opinium, who had Sunak winning amongst members, or anyone else bar Yougov (and Conhome) in case we are just seeing House effects owing to unbalanced panels.
Paging TSE....Westworld confirmed unwatchable shit. After reasonably promising start, now descended into utterly stupid bollocks. It what I imagine Boris would come up with tasksd with writing the plot.
Thanks for the heads up, I'll delete it from my Sky Q box.
Picture doing the rounds of Bonzo receiving a leaving present from the cabinet. As he and they remain the government for weeks surely there will be other cabinet meetings?
He never even made a final. 4 semis, each one lost. I remember the frustration so well. Please, I used to say (addressing the heavens), PLEASE let me at least see Tim in a Wimbledon final. Just the one will do. Don't care if he wins it, I just want to see that neat little embodiment of English home counties sensibilities come out there in a final and be a part of it. My prayers were not answered.
Comments
https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1547616293569720320?t=PCoAxge6WWy0o6Zb6Mj3Iw&s=09
https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1547616293569720320?t=PCoAxge6WWy0o6Zb6Mj3Iw&s=09
But some people ask "what would you cut" as if its a rhetorical question with no viable answer. Off the top of my head I just named half a dozen things I'd cut - all of which are on topics regularly discussed on this site.
Here's the extent in England:
Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.
Perhaps they all need to limit themselves to Reithian English, too.
Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
A better question is whether Kemi needed to work at McDonalds or it was just pin money in university vacs.
Sky reporting here:
https://tg24.sky.it/politica/2022/07/19/sondaggi-politici-oggi
21 point poll deficit and 16/1 to be next FM.
Jim Murphy et al really scorched the ground good.
But if this is the argument against Kemi - that she said she 'flipped' burgers when in fact the machines flipped them automatically - well I'm quite reassured.
But her mere presence is progressive - so if she ended up pandering to the people who want to marginalise people like her for their crime of being black and of being a woman, that would be unexpected.
People say all kinds of things to get elected. I don't expect they to pay more than lip service to a lot of those promises. Its like "eugh, Starmer lied to us". Yeah, he did you trot idiots. To get elected by you so that he can remove you.
The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.
London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
However he might lose his bet if it broaches 42C, and goes beyond his winning range?
And 42C is - incredibly - now possible. Not likely, but it could happen. Eyes down for the next 2-4 hours
EDIT For 30 seconds!
But the bigger point - that it's largely the legislation of parties other than hers that has improved the lot of the lowest paid - is a reasonable one.
The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
fingers xed
Betfair next prime minister
2.54 Rishi Sunak 39%
3 Liz Truss 33%
4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%
21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
370 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.56 Rishi Sunak 39%
2.6 Liz Truss 38%
4.1 Penny Mordaunt 24%
20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
To be in final two
1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
1.72 Liz Truss 58%
2.44 Penny Mordaunt 41%
10 Kemi Badenoch 10%
Rough guess you have a 20-30% chance of winning that 42C wager
There could easily be some random station in East Anglia, Lincs, that makes 42C as the rain/cloud stays west
Does anyone have any wisdom on whether warm air outlets attract said insects?
I've been playing with an efficient aircon, and using a reversible heatpump for cooling. Both of these involve air outlets as warm, or warmer than, ambient.
Any thoughts are welcome.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62216159
Tackling error and fraud in the Covid-19 support schemes
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hmrc-issue-briefing-tackling-error-and-fraud-in-the-covid-19-support-schemes/tackling-error-and-fraud-in-the-covid-19-support-schemes
In all the excitement these temps will be scary for many
@timothy_stanley
Michael Gove quotes De Gaulle and his “certain idea of France.” Says the next PM must have a certain idea of the U.K. This, is he says, is a multiethnic state that works because it has strong institutions.
State should do fewer things but better. “I am a Hamiltonian not a Jeffersonian.” The government has been “ knocked off course” by people with stronger narratives.
Globalisation led to greater inequality which the state has to play a role in ameliorating. Tories should be party of those on “average and below average” wages.
Wokery is being driven by people who want a bigger state and don’t believe in the nation.
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1549365386050674690
The long run comparison indicates it makes little difference to growth whether we have a Labour or a Conservative government. Caveat: there's been a lot more Con than Lab so to some extent Con just tends to the national performance (which is relatively poor).
But anyway, point is, politicians wildly exaggerate the impact they can have on sustainable GDP.
Will Norway follow suit ?
https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1549283130707697670
By South Korean press;
On the order of the Polish MoD, Hyundai Rotem will deliver 180 K2 (USD 7.6 million per vehicle) by 2024, and Polish side also interested in purchasing the FA-50, IFV Redback, K9 and KM-SAM Block 2.Contract expected within next week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/58522704
In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
I suspect that the various manoeuvrings regarding suppling arms and spare at the beginning of the Ukraine War figured into that decision.
Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.
There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.
People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
And almost certainly delivered at a faster pace than the German equivalent.
There will be an upgrade to the K2 available in fairly short order, so some of this delivery might well be sold on to other eastern European states, and replaced with the newer kit.
The balance of power over the next few years is definitely tilting away form Russia, in any event.
Truss 54%
Sunak 37%
Mordaunt 51%
Sunak 34%
Badenoch 56%
YouGov poll of Tory party members
Some places will record temps 4-5C in excess of anything they have seen before. The Canadian Heat Dome has come home to Yorkshire and Lincs
As a relative unknown she has the capacity to represent something entirely new - an apparent change of party, even. This is certainly a risk, but when you have been in government for 12 years, the electorate are going to want something new anyway, so it's worth a try.
With polling suggesting that Sunak could easily lose to any of the other candidates - making clear that this is unlikely to be a coronation - Tory MPs should make sure that both candidates in the final two are potential PMs they would be happy with. A Mordaunt-led Conservative party solves none of the professed problems in Boris Johnson's leadership style, and Liz Truss, while in my view a perfectly competent administrator (I appreciate I am in the minority here), is not a general election winner. Sunak vs Badenoch would be much more interesting.
On the Britain First endorsement: Sunder Katwala on Twitter notes Britain First's Telegram channel suggests this to be a bit of 4Chan-style trolling.
Gone, already I believe.....
Rishi has a big problem.
2022 education as percentage of GDP is 4.20%
Higher spending then, but the atrocious LEAs are nerfed now.
NEW from Labour: The Forde Report completely debunks the conspiracy theory that the 2017 general election was somehow deliberately sabotaged by Labour Party staff opposed to Corbyn's leadership.
Quote from Forde: In Labour in 2017 there was a "debilitating inertia, factionalism and infighting which then distracted from what all profess to be a common cause - electoral success."
"The evidence clearly demonstrated that a vociferous faction in the Party sees any issues regarding antisemitism as exaggerated by the Right to embarrass the Left. The authors of the Leaked Report were supportive of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, enthusiastic and fully committed.”
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1549361178685603842
Any Party chairman worth his salt would be picking up on this.
You are forced to put a pound on (already eliminated) Jeremy Hunt as Tory leader, because you've run out of funds and he's your biggest negative exposure and you need it cleared to keep playing the market.
Sigh.
It was possible, but the Government shouldn't have retained the assets. Retaining the assets isn't how proper privatisation is done.
Japan did privatisation better, they privatised the assets, they removed subsidies, and they have a better system without subsidies than we do.
All the green belt does is cause people to commute to London from towns further away than the green belt. And increase the values of properties in or close to the protected areas. It does bugger all to help northern economies.
The official 10am to 10am highest minimum record will go to Kenley, Surrey with 25.8C.
Emily Moor didn't drop below 25.9C overnight, but was below that yesterday morning.
We wuz robbed.
The ECML has to be seriously profitable at the moment - I wasn't able to reserve seats on any train last Friday morning because all seats (first and standard class) were fully booked for all services between 10am and 2pm.