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The next CON poll lead in September looks a good bet – politicalbetting.com
The next CON poll lead in September looks a good bet – politicalbetting.com
As the Wikipedia poll table shows there has been no recovery in the Tory polling position since Johnson decided to throw in the towel and step down as PM.
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I'm -£408 in the next PM market. I was banking on Boris surviving so I laid the field. But in the next Tory leader market I backed Truss at 12.0 and Rishi at 4.3 so I've managed to cash out there at +£378.
Overall -£30. Phew!
If Truss becomes PM however unfortunately I think the bounce might actually be in Labour's favour
I have mine open. Yet it lets hotter air in, but it also adds a breeze. Warm with a breeze is more pleasant than warm without a breeze.
It's the same reason as to why people use fans, despite the fact that fans actually arguably increase the temperature of the room they don't decrease it. Hotter temperature with circulating air is more pleasant.
I'm loving this weather. I'm not trying to cool my house down, if I was I'd close the windows, I'm trying to enjoy the gorgeous and glorious summer weather instead.
When driving OTOH I have the Air Con on and the windows closed. Since I park in the sunlight, the car is like a sauna otherwise which isn't as pleasant as the home.
In 2019, in every ballot, the person eliminated was the one who came bottom in the previous ballot, except in the second ballot (when Stewart and Javid overtook Raab).
The 2016 leadership only had two ballots, but the candidate eliminated in the second ballot was the one who had fewest votes of the three in the first ballot. That also applies to 2005. That also applies to the 1997 second ballot. (2001 was weird.)
So, it is very unusual for the person bottom in one ballot not to be eliminated in the next round (excluding any withdrawals).
But people object to politically-continuation of Johnson which is fairly odd. Because politically, Johnson got the big calls right. That helped him win an 80 seat majority etc.
For the last few years almost everyone has been arguing that regardless of the politics, Johnson personally is unacceptable. So continuing with the manifesto that won the 80 seat majority (and returning to it where it was breached like reversing the NI tax rise) but without Johnson himself in Downing Street lying in response to every issue . . . what's actually wrong with that?
I have a portable a/c unit that I keep in my (upstairs) study. I didn't use it at all during the day yesterday. I thought that having the window open with the pipe going outside would allow more heat in. I used it in the evening to help get the upstairs temperatures down a bit.
@hzeffman
NEW: Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood has been stripped of the whip by Boris Johnson for failing to support the government in last night’s confidence vote
9:51 AM · Jul 19, 2022"
https://order-order.com/2022/07/19/tobias-ellwood-loses-the-whip/
Imagine leaving your mother's deathbed to vote confidence in phatboi.
@yuanyi_z
I don’t understand how the British ever conquered all these hot places.
https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/1549037573518942210
Presumably he was also the MP absent from the leadership vote yesterday, or can you send a proxy for that?
Imagine voting confidence in phatboi, full stop.
Got a blow up pool out in the garden, just absolutely making the most of it. Would have to pay to fly to enjoy weather this glorious.
I've tried not to mention it much on here, but am encouraged by @CorrectHorseBattery whose been brave at mentioning his struggles so I've been struggling for the last couple of years with my mental health, especially since lockdown began. Felt very cooped up, not flown overseas in a few years now since before Covid, which I'm not used to and won't again until next summer which we have planned already. Last night, playing with the kids with the pool in the garden in this heat - that was one of the best random days I've enjoyed in years.
Its fantastic weather, really enjoying making the most of it. 👍
However, BoJo announcing his departure doesn't seem to have shifted the numbers- though that could be because he hasn't actually gone yet. Also, by September we will have had another six weeks of economic squeeze.
Tobias Ellwood was a Mordaunt supporter and won't now be able to vote in the remaining ballots.
A rangers v Celtic match in Belfast at the time of the good Friday agreement with each team wearing the others shirt.
https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1549314852165787649?s=21&t=OciRZ_OBCcDNF0h6yOFZuA
Doubt it will happen but it would be hilarious.
Johnson really is a wazzock.
If you want a change of politics, that should be done via winning the next election, continuing with the policies that won the last one by a very large majority shouldn't be considered a flaw.
@andrew_lilico
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Today we find out whether Truss or Badenoch is going to be our next PM, essentially. Something odd *could* conceivably happen even after today to mean it's neither of them, but that's seeming increasingly unlikely now. It's really down to the Tory MPs to choose btwn those two.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico
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Not what bookies are saying frankly.
The kindest thing that can be said is that she hasn’t a clue. The equally likely explanation is that is that she is merely mouthing Gove’s words…SNP 'blames England' for its problems, claims Tory leadership candidate Kemi Badenoch - Daily Record
https://twitter.com/feorlean/status/1549069954120441858
MPs took a year to ditch Boris - their judgement is garbage.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1549321907790647298
IMHO if Truss goes out tonight, almost all her vote goes to Kemi and the Saffron Walden MP is through to the members.
IMHO if Kemi goes out tonight, a lot (but not all) of her vote goes to Truss, making it close to a thre-way tie tomorrow - assuming Gove doesn’t have a couple of dozen Kemi supporters all switching to Sunak.
Any of the other 3 at least have a chance of narrowly winning a GE, scraping back in as a minority, or at least keeping losses to a build-back-able level. Some are riskier than others.
Liz just feels to me like a guaranteed election loser.
Really funny.
Boris takes away whip and 1 vote from PM4PM
If the greatest criticism of Truss is that she said "pork markets" oddly ten years ago, and wants to mostly continue with the policies that won an eighty seat majority a couple of years ago, and believes in low taxes - then none of those criticisms really amount to much.
But I don't think we have to wait until an election to express a view on a political forum as to whether Johnson got the big calls right. The claims he did, whether they are correct or false, were put out as Tory spin. They are up for debate.
Yes, the Conservative government, under its new leader, whoever that is, has a mandate to deliver on its manifesto. But the supposed "big calls" that Johnson supposedly got right are mostly not things that were in the manifesto, but responses to events. (Generally, people talk about vaccines, Ukraine and Brexit, so 2/3 were not in the manifesto and 1/3 was.) So why are you jumping from the "big calls" to "the policies that won the last [election]"?
Of course, the policy that won the last election was an oven-ready Brexit deal that would definitely not impose any paperwork on GB<->NI trade. Which was a big fat lie.
It all began to fall apart for Boris and Rishi when they started raising taxes, especially NI. Rishi seemed to want to blame that on Boris, but now Boris is gone and he's insisting on more of the same. Truss is saying to reverse that mistake.
For that alone, Truss is better, despite my book. Raising NI and raising taxes to a 74 year high isn't "smart" or "rational" or good economics, and if Truss reverses that then that would be a good call. Cutting taxes on people who work for a living rather than always ratchetting them up might actually end up being popular too. 👍
A few other MPs also missed it.
A reminder that Chris Pincher still holds the whip.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1549321825020256256
Edit - Sky got it wrong.
Edit 2 - others absent:
12 Conservative MP's did not record a vote in the confidence vote yesterday: John Baron, Scott Benton, Theo Clarke, Tobias Ellwood, Nusrat Ghani, Anthony Higginbottom, Tom Hunt, Johnny Mercer, Gagan Mohindra, Jill Mortimer, Andrew Rosindell and Andrew Sealous. How many pairs?
https://twitter.com/HarryHayfield/status/1549324466789949441
Wonder what’s going on. Maybe the Russians are being silly buggers?
I can accept that she may be a good administrator, that’s as far as I can go. She isn’t going to win the Tories a general election. I have not seen a high level politician who is so utterly poor at presentation and communication. She cannot connect with voters. She is stiff, cold and robotic. She is not a front woman. The public do not like her and given she is more high-profile than any other candidate bar Rishi, there will be an element of that being priced in.
She will be a disaster for the Tories. If they want to spend the next two years feeling happy about someone cosplaying Maggie and droning on about low taxes, then that’s their prerogative but it’s not going to keep them in office.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing
My scorecard:
Brexit - right.
NI (Northern Ireland) - right.
NI (National Insurance) - wrong.
Ukraine - right.
Covid - wrong, but better than all the alternatives except Stefan Lofven
Vaccines - right
A solid 7.5/10 and better than the alternatives. "He got the big calls right, but treated the small calls with utter contempt" is a good epitaph for him.
It's plausible that someone could fear a candidate for the former and yet completely the reverse for the latter. Indeed, this is the only logical position if you were to believe that most people mostly share your political views. That assumption might be erroneous, but it wouldn't be unusual for people to make faulty assumptions.
But - and its a big but - there is something intriguing about Badenoch. The idea of Sunak vs Badenoch for Tory leader is itself rather transformational, and the outcome potentially even more so.
I read various things about Kemi being on the right of the party and perhaps she is. But that she *exists* is not of the right, but points towards a more progressive modern Britain which is the antithesis of what the right of the Tory party wants.
I see no evidence of the left of centre being "utterly terrified" of fighting a campaign against Truss, although they might be utterly terrified of having her as PM before we get an election.
If 40% of Tugendhat's votes go to Badenoch, then Truss should be able to get some of those from Badenoch, but you've not assigned her any of them. Mordaunt gaining 21 when Badenoch is eliminated seems . . . odd.
NI - wrong
NI - wrong
Ukraine - he has done his bit, in a desperate attempt to cover his links with dodgy Russians and their money
Covid - wrong, multiple times
Vaccines - all he did right was to do as he was told and stay well out of it
2 Rishi Sunak 50%
3.35 Liz Truss 30%
6 Penny Mordaunt 17%
21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
330 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2 Rishi Sunak 50%
3.35 Liz Truss 30%
6.2 Penny Mordaunt 16%
21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
To be in final two
1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
1.6 Liz Truss 63%
3 Penny Mordaunt 33%
10 Kemi Badenoch 10%
Sunak 133, Mordaunt 115, Truss 109.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4032893#Comment_4032893
which is pretty close to what you've got. But because you have Badenoch being knocked out by just one vote in the next round, the forecast has to be very sensitive to small changes. If it does end up as Sunak/Mordaunt/Badenoch final in the MPs' section, it is possible as @BartholomewRoberts suggests that Mordaunt will be knocked out by Truss supporters switching to Badenoch.
Either way, I'm puzzled by the current odds. Truss looks too short to me.
As that is the only piece of being "posh" that the Tory party have on SKS it continually appears in the hope that people have never investigated the detail.
For those who have investigated the detail it's a pack of lies that confirms (again) that the Tory party are dishonest.
Putting up NI and removing the £20 UC uplift hurt a lot of voters, before any of the Partygate stuff broke. A lot of voters were in a foul mood with Boris and Sunak pre-Partygate.
If nothing else, a Truss win of the premiership would be gift week for Sturgeon. Every week. For 2 years. I can write the script now for even the indy sceptics. OK so independence may be a leap into the dark. But when the light treats us like this, the dark may be better.
I can see him defecting to LibDems and carrying a substantial personal vote into the next GE.
Jon Nicholas, the current Lib DEm PPC for Bournemeouth East,
got 6.5% of the vote when he last stood in 2017.
So if we Tories have comp and non Oxbridge educated Penny leading us against Starmer we will ensure the redwall voters know that and if that makes Starmer the posh, privately educated candidate, tough. Labour attacked posh Boris and Cameron's private school education regularly so they may now get a taste of their own medicine!
@hzeffman
Striking how many of Badenoch's MPs are 'shy'
She got 58 votes last night but only has 27 public endorsements - so 53% aren't public
Truss next with 44% shy support. I make it 43% for Mordaunt and 37% for Sunak
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1549330005099945985
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1549266689115803649?s=20&t=JVfnO-yBenqS5Jh5-dZMjw