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The next CON poll lead in September looks a good bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    **Breaking**

    Tories and OnlyFans scandal


    Just take off your jackets, please. Everyone should take sensible precautions. A bunch of (mainly) overweight middle aged men in 40C heat should minimise their risks.
    I'm wearing shorts today and I never wear shorts.
    So you're naked?
    Doing a Winnie for his Zoom meetings.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    **Breaking**

    Tories and OnlyFans scandal


    Just take off your jackets, please. Everyone should take sensible precautions. A bunch of (mainly) overweight middle aged men in 40C heat should minimise their risks.
    I'm wearing shorts today and I never wear shorts.
    So you're naked?
    Elon shorted the shorts. So they lost their shorts.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Voting has ended in the Tory leadership ballot.

    When is the announcement?
    3pm.
    So only 34 minutes more of Magical Kemi Thinking to endure...
    it is a decision like this that makes me think that Kemi is on to something re net zero: https://caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2022/1841
    Basically the Court has ruled that the Business Secretary did not have sufficient information in terms of the quantification of our carbon output to certify that the net zero target would be met.

    This is how politicians make rods for their own back and how gesture politics comes back and bites them on the bum. These areas are not, in my view, proper areas for legislation but for policy. But if you pass laws the court will give them substance.
    A bit like when the threat of EU legal action forced the water companies to treat waste water rather than pump it straight into the sea? With the consequence that bathing beaches were dotted with becalmed floaters throughout the 70s and 80s?

    Arguing for policy rather than legislation is an argument for inaction.
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    kinabalu said:

    but as to views and politics I don't see a great difference between her and your standard reactionary right wing tory.

    But she's the only one standing..
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Rain and 15 degrees in my home village right now. It’ll be 6 degrees tonight.

    The BBC are arseholes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    That happened in 2001 and on that occasion they re-ran the vote:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Conservative_Party_leadership_election#MPs'_ballots

    In the event, one was eliminated and the other withdrew!
  • Whats the difference between BT FTTP and virgin cable? (Not asking for well one has shit customer service...is there something technically different?).

    FTTP is fibre all the way to your home (Fibre To The Premises) . Literally into your modem.

    A part of Virgin is now fibre, but they have lots of old coax cable stuff out there.

    The big improvement you get with full fibre is symmetrical connections - your upload speed can be as fast as your download. Which is nice for video conferencing and gaming.
    Virgin are replacing all coax with FTTP by 2028.

    Right now new deployments do use FTTP but I think only as far as your door when it goes to coax into your home. This will presumably change in time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    According to the rules there is a re-run of the ballot, and if the tie remains both are eliminated.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    I thought it wad most votes in the previous round?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the difference between BT FTTP and virgin cable? (Not asking for well one has shit customer service...is there something technically different?).

    FTTP is true gigabit.
    Are they not both fibre to the property? Or is there something technically different between them.
    The issue comes down to the size of the return path - Virgin offer 1gb download but only 52Mb upload. BT offers 910Mb download and 110Mb upload..
    Quite a few vendors of FTTP are offering symmetrical connections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    So who won the accuracy competition, Met Office or BBC?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    According to the rules there is a re-run of the ballot, and if the tie remains both are eliminated.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks for clearing that up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    Sky banging on about "climate emergency" all through this good weather it seems.

    FFS I believe in tackling climate change, but if all you're going to say is "if we don't tackle climate change, then we're going to get more good weather like this" then its hardly a threat, is it? 🤦‍♂️

    Also, such action wouldn't take effect for 40-50 years even if we did.

    So we're going to get this (and more) for the rest of our lives regardless of what we do.

    It's about making sure grandchildren/great grandchildren (and future generations) all have stability in 80-100 years once we're all gone now.
  • tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    That happened in 2001 and on that occasion they re-ran the vote:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Conservative_Party_leadership_election#MPs'_ballots

    In the event, one was eliminated and the other withdrew!
    Harriet Harman's best ever quote iirc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Five minutes to go!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    According to the rules there is a re-run of the ballot, and if the tie remains both are eliminated.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks for clearing that up.
    Well the rules could change at any moment, hah!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    kinabalu said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/19/kemi-badenoch-moves-away-from-net-zero-by-2050-in-double-climate-u-turn

    Badenoch unable to give a straight answer to the question of her position on net zero.

    She's seen as fresh and exciting because she's a young black woman with a shot at being PM - and that is genuinely a bit of a thrill - but as to views and politics I don't see a great difference between her and your standard reactionary right wing tory.
    God, that is such a predictable boilerplate Islington Leftie take.

    Do they make you guys in a factory somewhere?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the bottom two get the same number of votes I think they both get eliminated.

    According to the rules there is a re-run of the ballot, and if the tie remains both are eliminated.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Will be interesting if one is Mordaunt with the whip removed from Ellwood.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW YouGov Conservative members polling suggests Sunak would lose to whoever he faces in the final round

    Badenoch beats everyone

    Sunak 35 - Truss 54
    Sunak 37 - Mordaunt 51
    Sunak 34 - Badenoch 56

    Truss 48 - Mordaunt 42
    Truss 43 - Badenoch 46

    Mordaunt 43 - Badenoch 48

    Wow. Those are devastating figures for Rishi.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:
    She probably has but who knows.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    MY HEART IS RACING
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW YouGov Conservative members polling suggests Sunak would lose to whoever he faces in the final round

    Badenoch beats everyone

    Sunak 35 - Truss 54
    Sunak 37 - Mordaunt 51
    Sunak 34 - Badenoch 56

    Truss 48 - Mordaunt 42
    Truss 43 - Badenoch 46

    Mordaunt 43 - Badenoch 48

    Wow. Those are devastating figures for Rishi.
    But that's always been the case all YouGov's membership polling.

    The unknown question is how representative is YouGov's panel to the overall Tory party membership...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    AlistairM said:

    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the difference between BT FTTP and virgin cable? (Not asking for well one has shit customer service...is there something technically different?).

    FTTP is true gigabit.
    Are they not both fibre to the property? Or is there something technically different between them.
    I thought virgin was coaxal, not fibre?

    From what I’ve read, virgins network is pretty much at its max speed unless they start replacing the cables, whereas the new FTTP installs can theoretically push towards 100gbps just by swapping out the back end equipment.
    Which is currently a complete waste of time. In the vast majority of households the speed is limited by the WiFi in the house. I know people who have Gigabit into the house and they run entirely on WiFi which tops out at 200Mbps (if they're lucky). Even if you have wired your house with Gigabit ethernet (very rare) then you will have to upgrade every device in your house to 2.5G+ to experience any benefit whatsoever.

    I know this is verging on the 640KB is enough for anyone (mis)quote but I am struggling to see much need for the average household to go above 1Gbps. Most don't need more than 200Mbps.
    I am getting 506Mbps on my ancient Mac Book Pro 2015 - Wifi from a 1Gbps/1Gbps connection. What are they using for their Wifi - rust tin cans?

    Run multiple video conferences/calls at the same time to see why 1Gbps is good idea.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    RobD said:

    So who won the accuracy competition, Met Office or BBC?

    It isn't over. We've got another 3°C warmer to come according to Met Office.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Here we go...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    So who won the accuracy competition, Met Office or BBC?

    It isn't over. We've got another 3°C warmer to come according to Met Office.
    But what are the BBC saying?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,802
    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW YouGov Conservative members polling suggests Sunak would lose to whoever he faces in the final round

    Badenoch beats everyone

    Sunak 35 - Truss 54
    Sunak 37 - Mordaunt 51
    Sunak 34 - Badenoch 56

    Truss 48 - Mordaunt 42
    Truss 43 - Badenoch 46

    Mordaunt 43 - Badenoch 48

    Wow. Those are devastating figures for Rishi.
    But that's always been the case all YouGov's membership polling.

    The unknown question is how representative is YouGov's panel to the overall Tory party membership...
    I would also expect that people hold views on which potential leader is best much more fluidly than they do on which party is best. Minds are very changeable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Sky banging on about "climate emergency" all through this good weather it seems.

    FFS I believe in tackling climate change, but if all you're going to say is "if we don't tackle climate change, then we're going to get more good weather like this" then its hardly a threat, is it? 🤦‍♂️

    Also, such action wouldn't take effect for 40-50 years even if we did.

    So we're going to get this (and more) for the rest of our lives regardless of what we do.

    It's about making sure grandchildren/great grandchildren (and future generations) all have stability in 80-100 years once we're all gone now.
    +1 - the issue isn't a few days of very warm weather - the issue is that we end up in the position (as places in central Europe have already hit) where it is this warm for a prolonged period of time. Remember today is warmer than yesterday because it started at a warmer starting point.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    Betfair next prime minister
    2 Rishi Sunak 50%
    3.35 Liz Truss 30%
    6 Penny Mordaunt 17%
    21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    330 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2 Rishi Sunak 50%
    3.35 Liz Truss 30%
    6.2 Penny Mordaunt 16%
    21 Kemi Badenoch 5%

    To be in final two
    1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
    1.6 Liz Truss 63%
    3 Penny Mordaunt 33%
    10 Kemi Badenoch 10%

    Half-way through voting which closes at 2; results expected at 3pm. Rishi is drifting; Penny shortening.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.54 Rishi Sunak 39%
    3 Liz Truss 33%
    4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%
    21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    370 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2.56 Rishi Sunak 39%
    2.6 Liz Truss 38%
    4.1 Penny Mordaunt 24%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%

    To be in final two
    1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
    1.72 Liz Truss 58%
    2.44 Penny Mordaunt 41%
    10 Kemi Badenoch 10%
    Just before the announcement:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.46 Rishi Sunak 41%
    3 Liz Truss 33%
    4.1 Penny Mordaunt 24%
    26 Kemi Badenoch
    370 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2.48 Rishi Sunak 40%
    2.92 Liz Truss 34%
    4 Penny Mordaunt 25%
    32 Kemi Badenoch

    To be in final two
    1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
    1.68 Liz Truss 60%
    2.3 Penny Mordaunt 43%
    12.5 Kemi Badenoch 8%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Any second now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    Whats the difference between BT FTTP and virgin cable? (Not asking for well one has shit customer service...is there something technically different?).

    FTTP is fibre all the way to your home (Fibre To The Premises) . Literally into your modem.

    A part of Virgin is now fibre, but they have lots of old coax cable stuff out there.

    The big improvement you get with full fibre is symmetrical connections - your upload speed can be as fast as your download. Which is nice for video conferencing and gaming.
    Virgin are replacing all coax with FTTP by 2028.

    Right now new deployments do use FTTP but I think only as far as your door when it goes to coax into your home. This will presumably change in time.
    A number of vendors are doing fibre to modem, symmetrical connections. Future proofing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Central Lincs tops 39 C
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    Top 3 converging on 3s..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    My heartfelt thanks to the Kemi rampers, you've helped make a huge contribution to the TSE shoe fund.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,936
    4th round of Conservative leadership contest resuts

    Badenoch 59
    Mordaunt 92
    Sunak 118
    Truss 86

    Badenoch out
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Badenoch 59
    Mordaunt 92
    Sunak 118
    Truss 86
  • Wow Kemi out!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Sunak 118
    Mordaunt 92
    Truss 86
    Badenoch 59

    355 votes cast.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Boring!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Bye Kemi
  • Surely nailed on Truss vs Rishi now?
  • It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    Par score I have for today is:

    Sunak 124, Penny 100, Truss 73, Badenoch 60

    Would see Penny expanding her lead, and "breaking" the 100 mark but eliminated tomorrow:

    Sunak 142, Penny 106, Truss 109
    Change versus my forecast par score:

    Sunak 118 (-6)
    Penny 92 (-8)
    Truss 86 (+13)
    Badenoch 59 (-1)

    Sunak v Truss nailed on. Great result for Truss!
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    dixiedean said:

    Badenoch 59
    Mordaunt 92
    Sunak 118
    Truss 86

    Great day for Mr Starmer.

    Last one out of the Uk please turn out the lights.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Rishi, Liz or Penny

    Yawn!

    Could be #SuperDavey24!

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Kemigasm over.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Boring. It'll be Sunak v. Truss now I reckon.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,657
    Great Labour Party Ad. They are getting their comments much better organised.

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1549346192005517314?t=1r7HztCG8V7UGc_2NAxFzg&s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Liz Truss is the next PM, probably.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    Wow Kemi out!

    Why wow? She was last in the betting and bottom of the last round's votes.
  • Starmer will be very pleased.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,640
    Nowhere near. PM Truss it is.
  • Wow Kemi out!

    Why wow? She was last in the betting and bottom of the last round's votes.
    It was sarcastic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,306

    Boring. It'll be Sunak v. Truss now I reckon.

    And the members choose Truss?

    Christ
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Well thats a dogs dinner for sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Boring. It'll be Sunak v. Truss now I reckon.

    And Truss will probably win.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Truss wins from here. Might even top the ballot in the final MPs round.

    Bugger.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Thankfully, the MPs aren’t as barking as the membership.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    So much for Truss MPs moving to Kemi
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Truss up 15, Mordaunt up 11
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    Sandpit said:

    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.

    Truss is evens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Beth Rigby gets it wrong again, saying Badenoch lost a vote when she put one on.
  • Penny really must be dreadful if more Tom went to Truss than her
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Truss wins from here I fear.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Do we really think Truss got 15 of TT's votes?
  • So betting on Labour majority in 2024 is looking good
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Eep. Liz Truss is going to be our next PM.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Truss comes first in the MPs vote I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Sunak 3 Mordaunt 10 Truss 15 Badenoch 1.
    That's extra votes.
    Liz PM.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    It's Liz the Biz! (Sir Keir will now be counting the days.)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Dear God. Truss as PM....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064

    Wow Kemi out!

    Can I just say to all the Magical Kemi Thinkers here... told you so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    I hope you all laid Badenoch like I told you to
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    Down to the three CINOs.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Good result for Truss
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Goodbye Tories 2024/2025
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,640
    Beth Rigby keeps making factual mistakes. She said that Badenoch lost votes since the previous round but she gained one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    So every prediction as to who most votes from the candidates eliminated would move to has been wrong?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Leon said:

    Boring. It'll be Sunak v. Truss now I reckon.

    And the members choose Truss?

    Christ
    Yep - remember Truss has discovered the magic money tree and is planning to use it to solve all problems (where problems are things freebie loving pensioners want)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour have won in 2024. Tory MPs have eliminated the candidate with ideas. Now we’ve got a proven liar, a cosplaying Thatcher and Rich Rishi to choose from.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Given Sunak is polled to lose against them both, might we see something strange in the final round, where his backers vote for their least worst candidate aka the Jim Hacker?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    Boring. It'll be Sunak v. Truss now I reckon.

    And Truss will probably win.
    God help us
  • Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Very good numbers for Truss. Surely it's Truss v Sunak in the final round.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sunak has only taken 3 votes from Tugendhat, despite Tom’s support.

    Yes, I know it’s not as simple as that, but still.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,147
    edited July 2022
    A Truss victory means Labour in 2024.

    So I'm happy.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Tory MPs just knocked out the candidate most popular with the members. Labour probably wish they'd done the same in 2015.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Truss best person to be PM? Yee Gods.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Beth Rigby keeps making factual mistakes. She said that Badenoch lost votes since the previous round but she gained one.

    Rigby is a moron.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    How long will PM Truss survive? I reckon 15 months.
  • Sunak will have to lend a lot of votes to Pendolino now
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    moonshine said:

    Given Sunak is polled to lose against them both, might we see something strange in the final round, where his backers vote for their least worst candidate aka the Jim Hacker?

    I'm not sure Rishi & Penny have the votes between them to stitch Truss up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    The members vote will be fairly close but Truss gets it I think.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    edited July 2022

    It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    Par score I have for today is:

    Sunak 124, Penny 100, Truss 73, Badenoch 60

    Would see Penny expanding her lead, and "breaking" the 100 mark but eliminated tomorrow:

    Sunak 142, Penny 106, Truss 109
    Change versus my forecast par score:

    Sunak 118 (-6)
    Penny 92 (-8)
    Truss 86 (+13)
    Badenoch 59 (-1)

    Sunak v Truss nailed on. Great result for Truss!
    Yes, despite everything it looks like the contest will come down to the Foreign Secretary vs the recently resigned Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the rule that a PM is always previously Leader of the Opposition, or a holder of one of the Great Offices of State will have held.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,936

    Dear God. Truss as PM....

    That does look more likely now, Truss did better this round than yesterday, if she picks up most Badenoch votes she is in the last 2 and if Yougov and Conhome member polls and surveys are correct she then beats Sunak.

    That would be great news for Labour, not so great news for the Tories I fear
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    Penny really must be dreadful if more Tom went to Truss than her

    No, I don't think that's what happened. Some fluidity between all candidates I suspect. Perhaps some of it tactical.
This discussion has been closed.