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The next CON poll lead in September looks a good bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Andy_JS said:

    Liz Truss is the next PM, probably.

    Seems very likely now. I don't see how Mordaunt gets more of Kemi's MPs than Truss, unfortunately.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    That was boringly predictable with none of the excitment promised. Hey ho.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    So it comes down to how bat-shit crazy are the 59 Badenoch supporting MPs.....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Sandpit said:

    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.

    She is now.

    Truss 1.95/1.96
    Sunak 2.7/2.78
    Mordaunt 8/9.6
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653

    Penny really must be dreadful if more Tom went to Truss than her

    There is a fair bit of churn too, I expect.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Surprised how well Truss did out of the Tugendhat vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Tim Stanley
    @timothy_stanley

    Michael Gove quotes De Gaulle and his “certain idea of France.” Says the next PM must have a certain idea of the U.K. This, is he says, is a multiethnic state that works because it has strong institutions.

    State should do fewer things but better. “I am a Hamiltonian not a Jeffersonian.” The government has been “ knocked off course” by people with stronger narratives.

    Globalisation led to greater inequality which the state has to play a role in ameliorating. Tories should be party of those on “average and below average” wages.
    Wokery is being driven by people who want a bigger state and don’t believe in the nation.


    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1549365386050674690

    I don't think either model of revolutionary America is particularly relevant to 21C UK.

    'Wokery' is just bullshit shorthand for saying we want a culture war.
  • tlg86 said:

    Beth Rigby keeps making factual mistakes. She said that Badenoch lost votes since the previous round but she gained one.

    Rigby is a moron.
    She really isn't very impressive
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    .

    Sunak will have to lend a lot of votes to Pendolino now

    But not too many...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    If Badenoch's 59 votes went 33 to Truss and 26 to Mordaunt it would be:

    Truss 119
    Mordaunt 118
    Sunak 118
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    Sandpit said:

    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.

    Truss is evens.
    Now she's odds on. Let's see how it settles down in five minutes.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Sunak is not in a position to lend votes. Sunak vs Truss looks nailed-on to me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Rain incoming for Bath and Bournemouth
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    How many Rishi-supporting MPs read the latest polling and think "Fuck.....PM Truss."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    Sunak isn't guaranteed to make it if the "Stop Liz Truss" vote goes for Mordaunt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    Par score I have for today is:

    Sunak 124, Penny 100, Truss 73, Badenoch 60

    Would see Penny expanding her lead, and "breaking" the 100 mark but eliminated tomorrow:

    Sunak 142, Penny 106, Truss 109
    Change versus my forecast par score:

    Sunak 118 (-6)
    Penny 92 (-8)
    Truss 86 (+13)
    Badenoch 59 (-1)

    Sunak v Truss nailed on. Great result for Truss!
    Yes, despite everything it looks like the contest will come down to the Foreign Secretary vs the recently resigned Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the rule that a PM is always previously Leader of the Opposition, or a holder of one of the Great Offices of State will have held.
    And went to Oxford!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    In Sept we'll have PM Sunak and CoE Gove.

    Save this tweet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    This is a weird result which can only be explained I think by Rishi loaning votes to Kemi to try to stop Liz.
  • Nobody can afford to lend votes this contest. If Sunak tried to do any silly buggers there's a risk that he'll come second which would really weaken his message for the membership.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653

    It's Liz the Biz! (Sir Keir will now be counting the days.)

    From Thatcher, to May, to Truss.

    It shows progression in that a woman can now succeed when as incompetent as any man.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Me too. I get a smaller amount than £5k and a Labour victory in 2024. If she lasts that long.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,146
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Rain incoming for Bath and Bournemouth

    ..and the Tory party. An early bath..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    tlg86 said:

    Beth Rigby keeps making factual mistakes. She said that Badenoch lost votes since the previous round but she gained one.

    Rigby is a moron.
    That’s a little harsh, on morons.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    moonshine said:

    Given Sunak is polled to lose against them both, might we see something strange in the final round, where his backers vote for their least worst candidate aka the Jim Hacker?

    MPs must be tempted to do this. Knowing that Sunak will lose, which of Truss or Mordaunt do they most want to stop becoming PM?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Liz Truss is the next PM, probably.

    Certainly looks like it now, with the possible question of how many of Badenoch's supporters see Truss as a risk to their seats. However KB is definitely more anti-PM and I can see her more likely to endorse LT.

    Ah well, you live and learn.

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited July 2022

    How long will PM Truss survive? I reckon 15 months.

    Following the general lead and paraphrasing Yes Minister’s Party Games:
    “If Rishi gets it there’ll be a split in the party in six months, if Liz gets it there’ll be a split in the party in six weeks”. The fiscal conservatives will fight any effort at unfunded tax cuts, and the ERG will try to wreck and attempt Rishi makes to mend fences with Europe. They should have picked Badenoch or Mordaunt.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    The members vote will be fairly close but Truss gets it I think.

    I'm not voting for her - it's Rishi now for me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Odd that Sunak only got 3 votes from Tugendhat's 31.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924

    Sunak isn't guaranteed to make it if the "Stop Liz Truss" vote goes for Mordaunt.

    He needs 2 guaranteed Badenoch votes to get to 120 and certain to be in the last 2.

    If he gets more offers than that he can lend some MPs to Mordaunt to try and keep out Truss
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    So betting on Labour majority in 2024 is looking good

    Did you get your couple of quid on Labour gaining Basingstoke, Horse?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567

    How long will PM Truss survive? I reckon 15 months.

    Nearer to 5.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Nobody can afford to lend votes this contest. If Sunak tried to do any silly buggers there's a risk that he'll come second which would really weaken his message for the membership.

    Someone is lending votes though, because the net increases surely don’t tally against what was available from Tom.
  • OldBasing said:

    So betting on Labour majority in 2024 is looking good

    Did you get your couple of quid on Labour gaining Basingstoke, Horse?
    Yes! :)

    How are you fellow Hampshire friend?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Looks like Truss for PM.

    Tragic and another two years of EU hate on steroids and a trade war . With the ERG pulling the strings . Would the last sane person to leave the UK please turn off the lights .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    How many Rishi-supporting MPs read the latest polling and think "Fuck.....PM Truss."

    The problem is that Penny has performed terribly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Proof that wearing Mrs Thatcher's clothes gets you into Number 10.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak isn't guaranteed to make it if the "Stop Liz Truss" vote goes for Mordaunt.

    He needs 2 guaranteed Badenoch votes to get to 120 and certain to be in the last 2.

    If he gets more offers than that he can lend some MPs to Mordaunt to try and keep out Truss
    If you're an MP who's backed Sunak up to now but thinks he'll lose against Truss, you might be tempted to switch to Mordaunt as the person more likely to beat her.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    My guess is that she will be the next but one conservative leader, and the next but two PM.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Andy_JS said:

    Odd that Sunak only got 3 votes from Tugendhat's 31.

    Downright weird.

    I think, underneath the bonnet, the right have coalesced around Liz and Kemi lost votes to her.

    But Kemi has been propped up by Tom and Rishi voters, so it looks like she merely stood still.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    I think Rishi now has to promise some immediate tax cuts to match Truss.

    Just saying "fairytales" and a future unspecified something won't be enough.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


  • Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Considering Rishi and Boris lost my vote when they raised NI, I am bordering on not giving a shit if Labour win the next GE. If the Tories stand for raising Brown's preferred taxes and raising taxes to a 74 year high, why not have Labour doing that instead?

    Liz might at least would do some Conservative economics with the remaining time before Labour take over. I back her as best person to do the job, to the way I want it done, not best person to win the election as I don't especially care right now who wins the election.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    My guess is that she will be the next but one conservative leader, and the next but two PM.
    Doubt it - if she goes for the next but one leadership she will be the Hague of this generation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Sunak isn't guaranteed to make it if the "Stop Liz Truss" vote goes for Mordaunt.

    Indeed.

    Mordaunt vs Truss is not out of the question...??

  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    I love the idea that Conservative MPs and members have reflected on the last 3 years of Johnson and decided that the answer to their problems is 'Liz Truss".
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    nico679 said:

    Looks like Truss for PM.

    Tragic and another two years of EU hate on steroids and a trade war . With the ERG pulling the strings . Would the last sane person to leave the UK please turn off the lights .

    Perhaps it will be a blessing in disguise. We might get a small majority Labour government out of it, kept sane by the small majority but not having to placate the SNP et al.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    How long will PM Truss survive? I reckon 15 months.

    Nearer to 5.....
    Boris to stand for the leadership in January?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    HYUFD said:

    Dear God. Truss as PM....

    That does look more likely now, Truss did better this round than yesterday, if she picks up most Badenoch votes she is in the last 2 and if Yougov and Conhome member polls and surveys are correct she then beats Sunak.

    That would be great news for Labour, not so great news for the Tories I fear
    I think Sunak is beatable and Truss is thrashable.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,146
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    How many Rishi-supporting MPs read the latest polling and think "Fuck.....PM Truss."

    The problem is that Penny has performed terribly.
    I would say she has performed adequately, but large parts of the party - particularly the right - have turned on her, because her general tone and mood music are quite progressive. She's still a much, much better performer than Truss.

    Still, Starmer will be happy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Very good call by Sunak and Truss to step out of another debate. Risk avoided.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    A Truss victory means Labour in 2024.

    So I'm happy.

    I think so.

    I could vote for Truss over SKS. Not sure with Sunak.

  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    OldBasing said:

    So betting on Labour majority in 2024 is looking good

    Did you get your couple of quid on Labour gaining Basingstoke, Horse?
    Yes! :)

    How are you fellow Hampshire friend?
    Swealtering. If Truss does become PM, I'm betting on Basingstoke LAB gain too.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    New thread.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    NEW THREAD

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    My guess is that Badenoch lost some votes to Truss this round and this is hidden because she gained some Sunak/Tugendhat votes in a failed attempt to knock out Truss.

    So I wouldn't necessarily expect Truss to gain an overwhelming proportion of the Badenoch vote, but she's probably close enough to Mordaunt that she will get at least second place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the difference between BT FTTP and virgin cable? (Not asking for well one has shit customer service...is there something technically different?).

    FTTP is true gigabit.
    Are they not both fibre to the property? Or is there something technically different between them.
    The issue comes down to the size of the return path - Virgin offer 1gb download but only 52Mb upload. BT offers 910Mb download and 110Mb upload..
    Quite a few vendors of FTTP are offering symmetrical connections.
    The differentiator is whether or not it's contended.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    AlistairM said:

    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!

    I don't think Truss is continuity Boris I think Mordaunt fits that description better. Bit empty, eye-catching behaviour, doesn't think things through, fancies herself. That's how I see it.

    There has long been chatter about MPs keeping Truss off the membership ballot - this can't happen now can it?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    This is a weird result which can only be explained I think by Rishi loaning votes to Kemi to try to stop Liz.

    Perhaps it was the other way round given how popular Kemi seems to be with the grass roots.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    Leon said:

    OK I'm going out to see what it's like to live in an oven. Wish me luck

    @Leon walking down the street....

    image
    I feel it's what he'd have wanted. I can hear the triumphant cries of '40 degrees! 40 degrees!' as he disintegrates.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/19/kemi-badenoch-moves-away-from-net-zero-by-2050-in-double-climate-u-turn

    Badenoch unable to give a straight answer to the question of her position on net zero.

    She's seen as fresh and exciting because she's a young black woman with a shot at being PM - and that is genuinely a bit of a thrill - but as to views and politics I don't see a great difference between her and your standard reactionary right wing tory.
    God, that is such a predictable boilerplate Islington Leftie take.

    Do they make you guys in a factory somewhere?
    I'm not Islington, I'm Hampstead. But, sure, it is predictable I'd see a young black woman making waves in the tory party as a good thing whilst at the same time disliking her stale reactionary politics.
  • It is September 5th, not 6th
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Odd that Sunak only got 3 votes from Tugendhat's 31.

    Is it possible that some of those votes which went to Truss were tactical, to guarantee Kemi Badenoch's elimination ?
  • Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Odd that Sunak only got 3 votes from Tugendhat's 31.

    Is it possible that some of those votes which went to Truss were tactical, to guarantee Kemi Badenoch's elimination ?
    Big question is what the main motivation here, is it to knock out the crazy candidates? In which case these votes are going to to Mordaunt next and 2nd place is really tight. Or is to try and give Rishi the best chance in the final 2, which means they stay with Truss.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Driver said:

    Sandpit said:

    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.

    She is now.

    Truss 1.95/1.96
    Sunak 2.7/2.78
    Mordaunt 8/9.6
    Now is the time perhaps to start betting on Sunak? I think Truss should be favourite, but they've got a campaign to get through and don't underestimate Rishi.
  • Driver said:

    Sandpit said:

    Liz Truss should be odds-on favourite, on those numbers.

    She is now.

    Truss 1.95/1.96
    Sunak 2.7/2.78
    Mordaunt 8/9.6
    Now is the time perhaps to start betting on Sunak? I think Truss should be favourite, but they've got a campaign to get through and don't underestimate Rishi.
    I think Mordaunt is great value there, there is something weird going on with the voting patterns.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    It is September 5th, not 6th

    6th is when the new leader goes to the Palace to become PM.
This discussion has been closed.