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@paulhutcheon: Looks like Team Scotland is going to vote No #indyref0
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@ianssmart: @iainmartin1 I'm sure he can afford it but it is still probably the most expensive tweet of all time.peter_from_putney said:Isn't Andy Murray a tax exile like that other SNP luvvie Sean Connery?
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Sweet of you to be checking in on him! Want to take him off my hands?JohnO said:James Kelly has conceded defeat.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/
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We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours.
One of PB's busiest days ever.0 -
Indeed and its seems Cameron is doing his best to maximise the number of seats that UKIP take off him.HYUFD said:ManofKent Depends too on the seats won by UKIP
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Currently the betting odds are suggesting that No will be < 43%.Pulpstar said:
I have a match charity bet with James Bond on a 43% pivot - in the balance that one I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Survation's phone poll will win that bet, regardless.Pulpstar said:
Hmm that final Yougov was asking people how they'd voted - might ask for my tenner back on that market tbh !TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.Pulpstar said:
Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Their final ones.Pulpstar said:Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending
Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?
Survation's pre-closing poll was probably closer.
Edit: Poop, I've made a mistake.0 -
Shetland follows Orkney, not quite a 2:1 majority but close.0
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The place to be for national events.TheScreamingEagles said:We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours.
One of PB's busiest days ever.0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
"We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours."
Do you have the figures for the "utter bullshit" comments yet? Or an idea when they will be available?
Edited due overdose of alchohol.
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If you ask Robert nicely, he might be able to get those figures for them.Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
"We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours."
Do you have the for the "utter bullshit" comments yet? or an idea when they will be available?0 -
BBC misses the Shetland result.0
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Sulky Smarmy!!!!!!Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
"We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours."
Do you have the for the "utter bullshit" comments yet? or an idea when they will be available?
The hale world knows I'm not original - tick, tock boom loser.
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Shetland another predictable NO?0
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Yellow card.Neil said:
Sweet of you to be checking in on him! Want to take him off my hands?JohnO said:James Kelly has conceded defeat.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/0 -
Simon Jenkins and Owen Jones now on BBC, Jenkins in particular was urging a Yes from London, now says victory for establishment, Jones says chance to rewrite UK relationship0
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I cannot emphasis enough just what a pivotal role Ruth Davidson has played in the Better Together campaign. She has turned up time and again at various events, and she has been totally on top of her brief and big on the facts and risks of Independence. She is also an extremely passionate politician and a very savvy media performer.
My youngest son attended the Big Debate last week, and after watching her performance he told me that I had definitely made the right call choosing her over Murdo Fraser in the Scottish Referendum. Been blown away on twitter and elsewhere at the very positive reaction she has received from both Libdem and Labour Better Together supporters I have met and engaged with. This by the way has developed into an amazing cross party coalition, and we had a bit of last night love in last night.
Although, I did ask if come a No result in the early hours of Friday, would normal tribal service resume and see us all at logger heads again!
If you didn't catch last weeks BBC Radio4 Any Questions, would highly recommend it, Ruth Davidson and Jim Murphy giving a master class in why they have definitely become the Better Together A team during the whole campaign.foxinsoxuk said:
Ruth Davidson comes out of this looking good.Scott_P said:@jameschappers: Scottish Conservative leader @RuthDavidsonMSP on the lead for No: 'It could be double digits.' #indyref
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Scottish Labour woman on Sky totally blanking notion of EVEL and WLQ...arguing for more powers to large English metro authorities (coincidently Labour controlled). Shows their planned approach. Dishonourable, shameless scummers.0
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Well. It's been raining in our house0
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If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!0 -
To borrow on what has turned out to be a pretty disastrous Tory slogan EVfEL as a policy is
'In England but Not Run By England'
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Shy Tories, or Shy UKIP?peter_from_putney said:If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!0 -
Martin Boon admitted he thought all the polls were underestimating No voters.peter_from_putney said:If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!0 -
Heard a number of Labourites pushing the votes for 16 year olds. It seems a clear "on the crib sheet" for the evening.
If Cameron is going for EV4EL, which is a problem for Labour, how is he going to deal with issue of 16 year old votes which clearly the Tories wont want.0 -
Shetland Yes 5969 No 99510
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Not BBC Scotland on BBC parliament. 'Normal' BBC is a bit more amateur.AndyJS said:BBC misses the Shetland result.
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Lets just see if either Salmond or Sturgeon now try to claim that anyone voting No isn't on Team Scotland just because they also support team Great Britain! That was a huge own goal by the SNP/Yes campaign, and it really pi**sed off a lot Scots in the leg of this campaign. One of the classic cases of the SNP Cybernat campaign backfiring and then biting them on the behookie on Social Network sites.Scott_P said:
@paulhutcheon: Looks like Team Scotland is going to vote No #indyref
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Hope you're having fun Smarmy,
I'm watching Ed Conway.0 -
Jim Murphy suggests 16/17 year olds get vote at general election0
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If you're nervous about <40% you could always close out now.Casino_Royale said:
Good call! Luckily I bet on that band myself before you posted that. I got on at 3.2!peter_from_putney said:
That 2/1 bet I suggested on 40% - 45% No is now the 4/6 favourite, so it's looking pretty good so far!Casino_Royale said:Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?
It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%0 -
Absolutely stunning that a Grand Slam winning Rugby captain was not on Eck's Team Scotlandfitalass said:Lets just see if either Salmond or Sturgeon now try to claim that anyone voting No isn't on Team Scotland! God that was a huge own goal and real pi**sed so many Scots off in the leg of this campaign. One of the classic cases of the SNP cyber campaign backfiring and then biting them on the behookie on Social Network sites.
Numpty0 -
Looks like his Blue Book did wonders.Scott_P said:@WingsScotland: Shetland. Here comes another shoeing.
Heart of stone...0 -
Well 45 to 50 for yes now 5.1 amazing value imo
it is going to be between 43 and 46 for yes0 -
Indeed!!Casino_Royale said:
Not BBC Scotland on BBC parliament. 'Normal' BBC is a bit more amateur.AndyJS said:BBC misses the Shetland result.
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I can't see No going over 60 but it's covered as a saver0
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I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?Speedy said:
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform.HYUFD said:ManofKent Depends too on the seats won by UKIP
Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.0 -
But that's good, right? If NO win by a heavy enough margin that they can claim a majority in all key sections of the Scottish electorate (e.g. Scottish men) that might help broad acceptance of the legitimacy of the result, and put it to bed.peter_from_putney said:If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!0 -
When Labour say they want to devolve power to English regions, Conservatives must say:
"Are you proposing different Income tax in Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Surrey and Kent?"
"If Scotland is having power over Income Tax then so must England."
If you aren't devolving Income Tax to regions then it must be devolved to England."0 -
It is hard to underestimate the importance of the No campaign holding the Lanarkshire results to about 50/50. Lanarkshire has more votes than Glasgow in total. Three weeks ago it was beginning to look like a disaster. The fight back came back with Labour accepting help from the other parties and business waking up to the threat. Over the last 3 weeks I gave up most of my day to day work to persuade my staff, my suppliers and associates to both vote and vote No. Many other businesses in the area did the same. This was a campaign fought on the streets.
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Yes failing to win a single council isn't an impossibility.
Did anyone placed a bet on that outcome?0 -
I've just realised ..... OGH has slept like a baby throughout tonight's events.0
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I sort of wish I had a copy now. It will be an object of great interest to future historiansTheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like his Blue Book did wonders.0 -
Yes out to 100 on Betfair.0
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Shy UKIP? Yeah, right.... UKIP are shy in the same way that ScotNats are shy. And come next May, with similar consequences.Lennon said:
Shy Tories, or Shy UKIP?peter_from_putney said:If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
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BBC TV misses the result; R5L carried it (well, most of it but they were in in time for the numbers that mattered).AndyJS said:BBC misses the Shetland result.
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Mike Hancock MP resigns from Liberal Democrat Party0
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@faisalislam: "NO" areas of Edinburgh falling 70:30 No.."Yes" falling 50:50... Says one of the observers... Explaining sight of huddled inquest of Yessers0
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Any of you turnip heads seen that other big jessie?0
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Typical Scottish Labour sticking their noses in where they have no business to be!FattyBolger said:Scottish Labour woman on Sky totally blanking notion of EVEL and WLQ...arguing for more powers to large English metro authorities (coincidently Labour controlled). Shows their planned approach. Dishonourable, shameless scummers.
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I cashed out my (Hedged with other bookies) position on Betfair for a loss of £39. Took £1.37 for £129 profit on Yes ^_~. James Kelly conceeding convinced me it was at ~ million to one or more.TheScreamingEagles said:Yes out to 100 on Betfair.
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@hamiltonace
" Over the last 3 weeks I gave up most of my day to day work to persuade my staff, my suppliers and associates to both vote and vote No"
You also posted on here that you would no longer use a business contact because he was voting "Yes"?0 -
He's awake now.peter_from_putney said:I've just realised ..... OGH has slept like a baby throughout tonight's events.
It was a conscious strategy, I went to bed around 2.30pm on Thursday, and woke up around 7pm. I'd take over PB from 10pm onwards, when Mike went to bed and Mike would take over, Friday morning.
We put a lot of planning into this, to make sure PBers were looked after.0 -
Surely they will win DundeeAndyJS said:Yes failing to win a single council isn't an impossibility.
Did anyone placed a bet on that outcome?0 -
Yellow boxes!JohnO said:
Yellow card.Neil said:
Sweet of you to be checking in on him! Want to take him off my hands?JohnO said:James Kelly has conceded defeat.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/
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Were they actually proposed to devolve income tax setting to Scotland (remember they already have the power to vary the basic rate of tax)? I thought they were proposing to devolve income tax receipts? (not that i really understand how the devolving of any isolated set of taxes makes much sense whilst simultaneously having nationally allocated funding formulas (Barnett) continue.MikeL said:When Labour say they want to devolve power to English regions, Conservatives must say:
"Are you proposing different Income tax in Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Surrey and Kent?"
"If Scotland is having power over Income Tax then so must England."
If you aren't devolving Income Tax to regions then it must be devolved to England."
I think there's a lot of overexcited assumptions about what will actually happen on devolution. Theory and practical implementation are two very different beasts.0 -
Not too bad for YES in Orkney and Shetland, actually.
Revise them up a bit >40%
Central NO forecast lead 313,0000 -
The Union is safe. I will away to my bed with a final raising of the glass to JackW and his McARSE - a better performer than any other of the mainstream pollsters it would seem.
Those who would scorn him should remember that he also has firmly held views that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister. Doubt him at your perils.
Goodnight all.
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Only the Libreral Democrats would try to bury good news!FrancisUrquhart said:Mike Hancock MP resigns from Liberal Democrat Party
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I would if I could! Unfortunately, I screwed up my betting on this market by getting nervous and chasing my tail, so I can only close out there at a loss. Or I can gamble and 'hold' for a small win anywhere in the YES 40-50% bracket.peter_from_putney said:
If you're nervous about <40% you could always close out now.</p>Casino_Royale said:
Good call! Luckily I bet on that band myself before you posted that. I got on at 3.2!peter_from_putney said:
That 2/1 bet I suggested on 40% - 45% No is now the 4/6 favourite, so it's looking pretty good so far!Casino_Royale said:Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?
It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%0 -
Gove doing a good job of spinning that Cameron has a cunning plan...how true it is or how much it is Oliver Letwin-esque on the back of an envelope idea.0
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Making predictions for the three island areas was always a stab in the dark.0
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When even WingsOverScotland is conceding defeat....SeanT said:Betfair seems to have completely collapsed in terms of NO.
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Some of us were questioning the polls four weeks before the election, and questioning them from both sides i.e. not simply that they could be understating Yes and the possibility of independence, but that they could equally be understating No. To be fair to the pollsters, they had very little precedent to go on and to model with.peter_from_putney said:If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!0 -
Speak English!!!0
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Can't understand a bloody word of the Western Isles declaration..0
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Western Isles declaring - anyone speak Gaelic?0
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Precisely.manofkent2014 said:
I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?Speedy said:
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform.HYUFD said:ManofKent Depends too on the seats won by UKIP
Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.0 -
Do we have any hints from Edinburgh - the postal votes were apparently very good for No.bigjohnowls said:Well 45 to 50 for yes now 5.1 amazing value imo
it is going to be between 43 and 46 for yes0 -
Yes 9,195
No 10,544
Michael Thrasher thought this was Yes's best hope.0 -
Western Islanders vote NO?
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NO wins in a SNP heartland, dear me.0
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Western Isles 9195 Yes, 10544 No - Another No victory in a strong SNP area.0
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Jesus has voted NO0
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Yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss The NO campaign has narrowly WON in the Western Isles!0
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Much appreciated, both of you. We punters do tend to take the smooth running of pb.com for granted.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's awake now.peter_from_putney said:I've just realised ..... OGH has slept like a baby throughout tonight's events.
It was a conscious strategy, I went to bed around 2.30pm on Thursday, and woke up around 7pm. I'd take over PB from 10pm onwards, when Mike went to bed and Mike would take over, Friday morning.
We put a lot of planning into this, to make sure PBers were looked after.0 -
Western Isles - No 53.4%
And they have an SNP MP.
LOL!0 -
Another win for No in the Western Isles. I am beginning to believe those who claimed that this was not going to be close were nearer to the truth than I was.
I think I can live with that.0 -
Nice.0
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Oh Smarmy, fair enough.Smarmeron said:@JBriskin
" I just hope, as a fellow PB Scot, that I don't sound as much of a twat online as you do."
Look at the face (human, not horse) in my current avatar.
Is that the face of someone who gives a damn about what you or anyone else thinks of him?
You should be giving me a LOT more respect right now though.
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I am sure you can!!!DavidL said:Another win for No in the Western Isles. I am beginning to believe those who claimed that this was not going to be close were nearer to the truth than I was.
I think I can live with that.
So far so good.
You must be buzzing David.
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Do I need to upgrade to Scottish water?0
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Looks like the pollsters have had a lucky escape. Imagine if their closing polls had all been 52:48 yes...0
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What % did he get in 2010?MikeL said:Western Isles - No 53.4%
And they have an SNP MP.
LOL!0 -
ManofKent/Speedy Indeed clear boost for Farage regardless
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New Thread0
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I agree there will be plenty pissed off with Cameron's latest panic stricken omnishambles in the making.Speedy said:
Precisely.manofkent2014 said:
I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?Speedy said:
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform.HYUFD said:ManofKent Depends too on the seats won by UKIP
Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.0 -
Western Isles Result Yes 9195 No 105440
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Still a market both ways on Yes, but peanuts compared with the money in it earlier. Also still some money on both sides for Yes at 50-55in the vote share market. Still, the only market worth speaking of is whether Yes will be 40-45, under or over.SeanT said:Betfair seems to have completely collapsed in terms of NO.
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John Curtice comes out well and the Labour lead holding was crucial-Carswell's defection being timed to ensure this happened.The Quebec shuffle may well have occurred as predicted.0
