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Rule breaking Rishi wins the debate as Kemi puts the bad in Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Rule breaking Rishi wins the debate as Kemi puts the bad in Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
A snap Opinium poll of 1,001 people who watched the debate shows Rishi Sunak won, with 24% of those surveyed thinking he performed best, followed by Tom Tugendhat (19%)Penny Mordaunt got 17%, followed by Liz Truss (15%) and Kemi Badenoch (12%) https://t.co/dFXRsPHra8 pic.twitter.com/RTEmBebBE5
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Badenoch had a quiet evening, but even without that after the impressive opening rounds I feel like the MPs will have been thinking about her lack of experience over the weekend. I think she and Tugendhat will both suffer as their backers ponder what the point is of continuing to back them when they clearly will not be in the running much longer, so I think some of hers will drift away.
I think this is shaping up to be a nightmare for most of us but a dream for Labour.
Mordaunt really seems to have fluffed her lines. Badenoch won’t quite make the cut, so it’s going to end up being a runoff between dull and flawed but fundamentally fairly professional Rishi, and Truss.
The membership will vote for Liz. She will prove to be every bit as bad as her predecessor, and surrounded by the same clowns. Meanwhile the economy will get worse as will relations with the EU and the coherence of the Union, The public will think “bugger this for a laugh” and seriously shit on
the Tories in 2024.
Out of all the candidates, the one who will generate zero polling bounce or even a new nadir is Truss.
Badenoch also easily beats Truss 61% to 31%.
However she likely goes out before the last 3
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/17/the-complete-run-offs-from-our-next-tory-leader-survey-badenoch-first-truss-second-sunak-third-mordaunt-fourth-tugendhat-fifth/
Who said that the BoJ did a great job keeping inflation low? That's a spectacularly moronic comment.
I'm not sure he can do that.
Against Truss it may not matter as I don't think she will argue only she can win, she will campaign to be as pure a tory as ever existed.
It’s still basically, “Hmm, not sure.”
She won, relative to Mordaunt, in my eyes because she seemed the most anti-Sunak, had no major presentational problems, and Mordaunt seemed oddly subdued.
I still think after a campaign there is every chance the members vote Sunak over Truss.
No surprise Labour are using her responses in tonight's debates in their attack ads.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1548751253068562433
MPs know these characters way better than all of us so they shouldn't be too influenced by surveys of members who barely know them.
Tory contest prediction 17 July
So, second round was:
Sunak - 101
Mordaunt - 83
Truss - 64
Badenoch - 49
Tugendhat - 32
Braverman - 27
Prediction for the next round:
Sunak - 116 (+13)
Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
Truss - 84 (+20)
Badenoch - 45 (-4)
Tugendhat - 25 (-7)
Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.
Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.
Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.
Prediction for the fourth round:
Sunak - 119 (+6)
Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
Truss - 92 (+8)
Badenoch - 40 (-5)
Prediction for the final round:
Sunak - 133 (+14)
Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
Truss - 112 (+20)
Right know I don't think she's going to make it, Sunak will get the MPs and so will Truss. But in two years time when they need someone to lead them in opposition she could be a good bet. She would have to really take the time to learn a few things these next two years, develop her policies more and establish her stance on certain issues. Not an unrealistic prospect at all.
You're so woke.
Truss will communicate it as well as a Vogon poet reading his magnum opus.
And always remember who you are batting for: Mogadon Man. Just think how this contest would have looked in 1995 with a LOTO who was not one of the undead.
And I say this as a Labour chap who, if asked a week ago, would have said: a) PM was my preferred PM out of the candidates, and b) PM would be the one Labour feared most.
Not any more. I neither want her as PM, nor fear her as an opponent.
The chef said they were out of the beef, but the pork was still available, and you end up loving it.
2.36 Rishi Sunak 42%
3.4 Penny Mordaunt 29%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
140 Tom Tugendhat
220 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.38 Rishi Sunak 42%
3.3 Penny Mordaunt 30%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
170 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two
1.06 Rishi Sunak 94%
1.7 Penny Mordaunt 59%
2.46 Liz Truss 41%
10 Kemi Badenoch 10%
100 Tom Tugendhat
Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.
PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.
Hint: MOPP 4 noddy suits don't do a great deal for one's blonde hairstyle.
THE Scottish Tories have insisted Liz Truss will undermine the Union if she becomes Prime Minister and set back the party's recovery north of the border.
The six Scottish MPs and 31 MSPs are currently split on who to support in the leadership race, with West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine MP Andrew Bowie, Highland MSP Donald Cameron and mid-Scotland MSP Dean Lockhart throwing their weight behind Rishi Sunak, while others have chosen to support Penny Mordaunt including Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk MP John Lamont and Glasgow MSP Annie Wells.
The SNP maintains that all five candidates are out of tune with Scottish opinion and continue to deny democracy over a referendum, but some nationalists believe that a Truss victory and her association with Johnson would play most to their advantage.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20284822.liz-truss-undermine-union-say-scottish-tories/
Now we see a few colours being added and they're not exactly Michaelangelo.
That said, Sunak is almost sure to make the last 2, so 2.4 means he's not odds on yet. I really liked Badenoch and felt she could potentially reach beyond the Tories, but I agree with others that she's had her moment - enough for a good Cabinet seat, not more. I'd be surprised if she endorses Sunak but it might stop Truss if she did - otherwise I think Truss will edge it to the final 2.
I have been readying for our trip to Scotland and the Caledonian canal and only caught the end of the debate
Sunak seemed to be the best and I just find the rest very run of the mill
While we are talking of hot weather, we lost a local 24 year old female paddle boarder in Conwy on Friday evening, notwithstanding all the efforts of the RNLI and the coastguard, my son and his colleagues rescued a father and son who had fallen out of their kayak and been in the sea for 40 minutes the night previously, and tonight they have been out to rescue a lilo floating out to sea with its occupant
Indeed the coastguard are receiving numerous 999 calls at present, and people need to respect the sea and not put their lives at risk or the volunteer RNLI crews
I wonder if he was offered a good post, and the reason for that was to help with members to blunt the continuity Boris attacks - after all, Raab definitely was loyal to the end with Boris.
What am I missing?
Having thought debates never made a difference, they obviously have here
Not sure about this.
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
Then add in her republicanism.
Sunak - 110 (+9)
Mordaunt - 84 (+1)
Truss - 89 (+25)
Badenoch - 50 (+1)
Tugendhat - 22 (-9)
But a Black Tory PM would still cause many Labour activists to froth.
Ambassador to USA 7/1
Editor of Evening Standard 10/1
Next host of Countdown 10/1
Mayor of London 16/1
Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1
Speaker 50/1
Classics master at Eton 50/1
Ambassador to the EU 80/1
Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1
Controller of Channel 4 100/1
Interior designer 250/1
500 bar
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Osborne was heavily criticised for trying to bring down the deficit a full 2-3 years after the crash, Sunak says he wants to do it during what will likely prove the most difficult fiscal year for growth in the next decade.
I hope it’s just messaging and he knows better. But he talks about it with the closest he gets to passion. And that should be more than a little worrying for us all.
I really feel like media people are trying to hype disagreements over tax and some minor personal sniping as more significant than is the case.