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Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?
    Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

    https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


    So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C
    OK, I didn't realise that Florida was as moderate as that, I should have said Australians then.

    I grew up in Melbourne, Vic, close to a golf course and we'd get 40C+ temperatures most summers. The golf course would be very popular and not shut down in that temperature.

    Those in Queensland and NSW would get those temperatures even more often.
    Are there only the 3 east coast states in Aus?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337

    Techne poll thus morning with a partial reversion of the defenestration/chaos slump. Tories i suspect helped by 24/7 coverage this week

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB 40% (-1)
    CON 31% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (-)

    via @techneUK, 14 Jul
    https://t.co/5ksWvcS8Xq

    YouGov has it sleazy broken Lib Dems on the slide.

    Labour 11 points ahead for a second consecutive week in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 29 (=)
    LAB 40 (=)
    LD 13 (-2)
    GREEN 7 (+1)
    REFUK 4 (+1)

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1547847888998244358
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

    Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
    The business about the veto over Turkey joining the EU.
    Thanks; I missed that. Do you mean the things she said in 2016?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-eu-a7041956.html

    From memory, many people on here seemed to agree with her... ;)
    It was always a "have you stopped beating your wife?" question. Say you are burgling my house, and I say I have a gun in the house and I am not afraid to use it. That remains technically true if the gun is locked in a gun cabinet and I lost the keys 10 years ago.

    But anyway my new philosophy is to believe the worst of new leaders because it always turns out to be true. So she is a liar.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    Given its recent track record in backing winning causes, I’m not sure Truss should be delighted by the Daily Mail’s enthusiastic endorsement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    Sir Keir Starmer believes “for the first time” that Labour can win the next general election regardless of who succeeds Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, sources close to him have said.

    The Labour leader and senior figures in his shadow cabinet are increasingly optimistic that whoever wins the Tory leadership race will be beatable, despite having staked his leadership on criticism of Johnson’s character.

    With the opposition 11 points ahead in YouGov’s latest poll and the government in disarray, senior Labour sources said that Starmer sees “a path” to a majority in 2024.

    “He always felt that with Boris in place, Labour would end up losing,” a source familiar with the leader’s thinking said. “Despite the sleaze, he thought that by 2024 it would have faded into the background and Labour would struggle to win back the seats in the north and Midlands that it lost in 2019. That’s now changed.”

    While Labour would need to reassess its strategy, both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt were at risk of “imploding” in any election campaign.

    “Yes, we’re going to need a change of approach because you haven’t got the probity card to play,” they said. “But someone like Sunak is vulnerable to traditional attack lines. He’s very rich and people don’t like that. Mordaunt is a bit more unknowable but she could well implode.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a45688-03b4-11ed-a4ba-b61f33f3c1cb?shareToken=d65a0aa35c6609bd6eca933225687d5a

    I reckon MRDA is apt here.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    On this day in 1988, Die Hard starring Bruce Willis was released.

    I mean you don't release a Christmas film in the middle of summer do you? DO YOU?

    Timed so that the VHS release would be oven ready to go exactly where it belongs, in Christmas stockings.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    Andy_JS said:

    If Badenoch gets knocked out, Truss is probably going to be elected leader.

    If you don't want Truss, support Badenoch.

    Sounds like wishcasting.
  • On this day in 1988, Die Hard starring Bruce Willis was released.

    I mean you don't release a Christmas film in the middle of summer do you? DO YOU?

    In just under 3 weeks we'll have the 80th anniversary of the release of Holiday Inn, the Christmas movie featuring Bing Crosby's White Christmas.

    Last month we had the 75th anniversary of the release of Miracle on 34th Street.

    And lets not forget the famous Christmas action movie classic which was released 30 years ago last month, Batman Begins Ok that's a stretch, ed.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,813

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

    Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
    All politicians have at best a nodding acquaintanceship with the truth. It is never a close friendship.

    As far as I can see, PM is no better or no worse than most of the other 648 MPs.

    648, because I have obviously taken Boris out of the sample as a gross outlier.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,372

    Techne poll thus morning with a partial reversion of the defenestration/chaos slump. Tories i suspect helped by 24/7 coverage this week

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB 40% (-1)
    CON 31% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (-)

    via @techneUK, 14 Jul
    https://t.co/5ksWvcS8Xq

    YouGov has it sleazy broken Lib Dems on the slide.

    Labour 11 points ahead for a second consecutive week in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 29 (=)
    LAB 40 (=)
    LD 13 (-2)
    GREEN 7 (+1)
    REFUK 4 (+1)

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1547847888998244358
    YouGov not buying the rally!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Andy_JS said:

    If Badenoch gets knocked out, Truss is probably going to be elected leader.

    If you don't want Truss, support Badenoch.

    Yes, there's a path for Truss and it isn't that narrow. She'll be feeling quite excited this morning, I'd imagine. Could be the next PM. Gosh.

    3 results still possible though. Mordaunt and Sunak won't be giving up yet, not by a long chalk.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    MrEd said:

    Keystone said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
    It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

    May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

    I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

    Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.
    Here's a thought. Do the Remainers in the party gang up to eliminate Truss before she gets to the final three?

    She's 15 votes ahead of Badenoch which is large but not huge and a smaller gap than between Truss and Mordaunt.

    If you are worried the ERG will propel her through, maybe better to knock her out now.

    I don’t think you can afford to do that given the law of unintended consequences ie some former Badenoch voters may already be switching based on the fact that they realise she isn’t going to make it (same as happened to Braverman and Tugendhat in the last round)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780

    Sir Keir Starmer believes “for the first time” that Labour can win the next general election regardless of who succeeds Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, sources close to him have said.

    The Labour leader and senior figures in his shadow cabinet are increasingly optimistic that whoever wins the Tory leadership race will be beatable, despite having staked his leadership on criticism of Johnson’s character.

    With the opposition 11 points ahead in YouGov’s latest poll and the government in disarray, senior Labour sources said that Starmer sees “a path” to a majority in 2024.

    “He always felt that with Boris in place, Labour would end up losing,” a source familiar with the leader’s thinking said. “Despite the sleaze, he thought that by 2024 it would have faded into the background and Labour would struggle to win back the seats in the north and Midlands that it lost in 2019. That’s now changed.”

    While Labour would need to reassess its strategy, both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt were at risk of “imploding” in any election campaign.

    “Yes, we’re going to need a change of approach because you haven’t got the probity card to play,” they said. “But someone like Sunak is vulnerable to traditional attack lines. He’s very rich and people don’t like that. Mordaunt is a bit more unknowable but she could well implode.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a45688-03b4-11ed-a4ba-b61f33f3c1cb?shareToken=d65a0aa35c6609bd6eca933225687d5a

    I reckon MRDA is apt here.

    WTF has the Men’s Roller Derby Association got to do with anything?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?
    Air-conditioned golf buggies are a great invention!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    .
    DougSeal said:

    Sir Keir Starmer believes “for the first time” that Labour can win the next general election regardless of who succeeds Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, sources close to him have said.

    The Labour leader and senior figures in his shadow cabinet are increasingly optimistic that whoever wins the Tory leadership race will be beatable, despite having staked his leadership on criticism of Johnson’s character.

    With the opposition 11 points ahead in YouGov’s latest poll and the government in disarray, senior Labour sources said that Starmer sees “a path” to a majority in 2024.

    “He always felt that with Boris in place, Labour would end up losing,” a source familiar with the leader’s thinking said. “Despite the sleaze, he thought that by 2024 it would have faded into the background and Labour would struggle to win back the seats in the north and Midlands that it lost in 2019. That’s now changed.”

    While Labour would need to reassess its strategy, both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt were at risk of “imploding” in any election campaign.

    “Yes, we’re going to need a change of approach because you haven’t got the probity card to play,” they said. “But someone like Sunak is vulnerable to traditional attack lines. He’s very rich and people don’t like that. Mordaunt is a bit more unknowable but she could well implode.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a45688-03b4-11ed-a4ba-b61f33f3c1cb?shareToken=d65a0aa35c6609bd6eca933225687d5a

    I reckon MRDA is apt here.

    WTF has the Men’s Roller Derby Association got to do with anything?
    Roller Derby can be very brutal, a bit like a Tory leadership contest or a general election campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    edited July 15
    Russian acting commander of 41st army meeting with soldiers' families:

    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1547589337398722568

    Quite a loss to motivational speaking that guy....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780

    .

    DougSeal said:

    Sir Keir Starmer believes “for the first time” that Labour can win the next general election regardless of who succeeds Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, sources close to him have said.

    The Labour leader and senior figures in his shadow cabinet are increasingly optimistic that whoever wins the Tory leadership race will be beatable, despite having staked his leadership on criticism of Johnson’s character.

    With the opposition 11 points ahead in YouGov’s latest poll and the government in disarray, senior Labour sources said that Starmer sees “a path” to a majority in 2024.

    “He always felt that with Boris in place, Labour would end up losing,” a source familiar with the leader’s thinking said. “Despite the sleaze, he thought that by 2024 it would have faded into the background and Labour would struggle to win back the seats in the north and Midlands that it lost in 2019. That’s now changed.”

    While Labour would need to reassess its strategy, both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt were at risk of “imploding” in any election campaign.

    “Yes, we’re going to need a change of approach because you haven’t got the probity card to play,” they said. “But someone like Sunak is vulnerable to traditional attack lines. He’s very rich and people don’t like that. Mordaunt is a bit more unknowable but she could well implode.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a45688-03b4-11ed-a4ba-b61f33f3c1cb?shareToken=d65a0aa35c6609bd6eca933225687d5a

    I reckon MRDA is apt here.

    WTF has the Men’s Roller Derby Association got to do with anything?
    Roller Derby can be very brutal, a bit like a
    Tory leadership contest or a general election campaign.
    Ah! Gotcha! Thanks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    Ok, fair enough, Phoenix then.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,276

    Techne poll thus morning with a partial reversion of the defenestration/chaos slump. Tories i suspect helped by 24/7 coverage this week

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB 40% (-1)
    CON 31% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (-)

    via @techneUK, 14 Jul
    https://t.co/5ksWvcS8Xq

    YouGov has it sleazy broken Lib Dems on the slide.

    Labour 11 points ahead for a second consecutive week in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 29 (=)
    LAB 40 (=)
    LD 13 (-2)
    GREEN 7 (+1)
    REFUK 4 (+1)

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1547847888998244358
    Any change of 3% or less is standard margin of error
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?
    Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

    https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


    So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C
    OK, I didn't realise that Florida was as moderate as that, I should have said Australians then.

    I grew up in Melbourne, Vic, close to a golf course and we'd get 40C+ temperatures most summers. The golf course would be very popular and not shut down in that temperature.

    Those in Queensland and NSW would get those temperatures even more often.
    Are there only the 3 east coast states in Aus?!
    Assuming you don't count Tasmania, yes. There's also the ACT but that isn't a State and doesn't reach the coast.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,897
    edited July 15
    The Tory party has now changed to a party that is run by and welcomes swivel-eyed loons into its membership.

    Labour are in a mess with SKS leading them. The country missed a trick by not issuing him a FPN.

    Lib Dems not making much progress, certainly not “winning here”. Though to be fair they will win in my constituency at the next GE.

    Greens could be a force but are run by fruitcakes.

    SNP perhaps but will they appear on my ballot paper in 2024?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Hmm, one for TSE if he hasn't seen it:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/15/sandringham-estate-police-barred-investigating-wildlife-crime

    'On a pleasant autumn evening in 2007, a wildlife warden at the Dersingham Bog nature reserve in Norfolk took a friend to see two female hen harriers returning home to roost. But as dusk descended, they were startled by the sound of shotgun blasts.

    After the first shot, they saw one of the rare birds of prey “immediately fold and drop out of sight”. About 30 seconds later they heard a second blast – and another harrier fell from the sky.

    The shots appeared to have come from inside Sandringham, the Queen’s rural retreat bordering the reserve [...]

    According to internal Natural England documents obtained by the Guardian, their urgency was in vain. To their surprise, they were told by Norfolk constabulary that no immediate action was possible: the police said they needed to ask Sandringham officials for permission to go on to the estate.

    One Natural England memo states its officials had pressed for an immediate search that night, but were told by a Norfolk officer that his chief inspector “had advised that he contact the Royal Sandringham Estate and ask for entry in the morning”.'

    (Hen Harriers are a protected species btw.)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    I’d be very surprised if it got to 40C outside London even on Tuesday. I’m not golfing in London.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    I went to Cali and Florida as a kid, California was hotter but Florida felt way worse.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    edited July 15
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    I’d be very surprised if it got to 40C outside London even on Tuesday. I’m not golfing in London.

    It makes a difference whether you walk the course or hire a buggy of course.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    edited July 15
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    It will be more like Phoenix than Florida, given the low humidity.

    The Tour de France was racing yesterday in temperatures of 35C in the alpine valleys so it clearly can be done.

    However, pouring chilled drinks bottles over your head is not normal for a round of golf, nor is having a car follow you round with an endless supply of same.

    I suppose if you are one of those golfers with a hideous motorised trolley, or worse, a buggy, you could load it up with 8 litres of water.

    Personally, I wouldn't do it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    Pulpstar said:

    I went to Cali and Florida as a kid, California was hotter but Florida felt way worse.

    Florida can be swelteringly humid.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    Stocky said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    I’d be very surprised if it got to 40C outside London even on Tuesday. I’m not golfing in London.

    It makes a difference whether you walk the course or hire a buggy of course.
    So long as I’m physically capable of carrying a bag, or pushing a trolley, I’m never going to hire a buggy. It’s supposed to be exercise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    Ok, fair enough, Phoenix then.
    I know Phoenix. The desert climate is delightful Fall-Spring

    In summer, when it goes over 40C, it’s horrible and dangerous. Everyone hides indoors with the aircon

    But if you play golf in that weather, I salute your courage if not your sanity. Mad dogs and Englishmen, eh

    And now I must get up and do some WORK. Stay chilled, everyone
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    It will be more like Phoenix than Florida, given the low humidity.

    The Tour de France was racing yesterday in temperatures of 35C in the alpine valleys so it clearly can be done.

    However, pouring chilled drinks bottles over your head is not normal for a round of golf, nor is having a car follow you round with an endless supply of same.

    I suppose if you are one of those golfers with a hideous motorised trolley you could load it up with 8 litres of water.

    Personally, I wouldn't do it.
    Push trolleys for me in the UK, every time. Get a better workout then.

    If I cease posting from next Weds you'll know I didn't make it!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    On this day in 1988, Die Hard starring Bruce Willis was released.

    I mean you don't release a Christmas film in the middle of summer do you? DO YOU?

    In just under 3 weeks we'll have the 80th anniversary of the release of Holiday Inn, the Christmas movie featuring Bing Crosby's White Christmas.

    Last month we had the 75th anniversary of the release of Miracle on 34th Street.

    And lets not forget the famous Christmas action movie classic which was released 30 years ago last month, Batman Begins Ok that's a stretch, ed.
    And of course, that famous summer holiday movie "White Christmas" was released at the end of April 1954...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    What's the humidity level for Mon/Tue ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,225

    Russian acting commander of 41st army meeting with soldiers' families:

    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1547589337398722568

    Quite a loss to motivational speaking that guy....

    There are a few interesting things about that talk, if it is real.

    Firstly, the absolute paranoia exhibited by him. The idea that Ukraine would invade Russia - especially to the areas he mentioned like Tomsk or Moscow. Paranoia is slightly understandable given Russia's history, but it's still paranoia.

    Secondly, the number of refuseniks in the army, and the (relatively) lax punishments. From the sounds of it, they do not become official veterans, they lose money, and they may get their names on 'boards of shame'. I was expecting them al to be sent to Siberia.

    Thirdly, it is very defeatist; it also seems rather realistic as to Russia's situation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    DougSeal said:

    Stocky said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    I’d be very surprised if it got to 40C outside London even on Tuesday. I’m not golfing in London.

    It makes a difference whether you walk the course or hire a buggy of course.
    So long as I’m physically capable of carrying a bag, or pushing a trolley, I’m never going to hire a buggy. It’s supposed to be exercise.
    I agree. In the UK. In places like Arizona buggies are assumed to be required. You see the odd walker but very much the exception.

    In the UK it is a rule of thumb that the best golfers carry their bags, the next best have a manual trolley, and the worst are in the buggies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    Pulpstar said:

    What's the humidity level for Mon/Tue ?

    At peak temperature it's is under 30%, which I think is a positive.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,228
    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    Same thing with Truss, although I think the Tory party might end up in civil war before the honeymoon period is over.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    Tories would rather lose than be ideologically impure. Same as Labour under Jezbollah.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Keystone said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
    It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

    May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

    I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

    Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.
    Here's a thought. Do the Remainers in the party gang up to eliminate Truss before she gets to the final three?

    She's 15 votes ahead of Badenoch which is large but not huge and a smaller gap than between Truss and Mordaunt.

    If you are worried the ERG will propel her through, maybe better to knock her out now.

    I don’t think you can afford to do that given the law of unintended consequences ie some former Badenoch voters may already be switching based on the fact that they realise she isn’t going to make it (same as happened to Braverman and Tugendhat in the last round)
    My guess is they wait until after the debates to decide what to do.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176
    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    It will be more like Phoenix than Florida, given the low humidity.

    The Tour de France was racing yesterday in temperatures of 35C in the alpine valleys so it clearly can be done.

    However, pouring chilled drinks bottles over your head is not normal for a round of golf, nor is having a car follow you round with an endless supply of same.

    I suppose if you are one of those golfers with a hideous motorised trolley you could load it up with 8 litres of water.

    Personally, I wouldn't do it.
    Push trolleys for me in the UK, every time. Get a better workout then.

    If I cease posting from next Weds you'll know I didn't make it!
    I always carried a bag over the shoulder and hated any kind of trolley as they just slow you down, although I haven't played for a few years now.

    Maybe ought to dig the clubs out again (although my Northwestern driver from 1985 might have to be replaced if I want to do some bombing and gouging).
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,893

    Keystone said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
    It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

    May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

    I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

    Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.
    I agree re Truss. But I also don't think that Mordaunt would amount to much.

    Given the 12 years she's been in parliament, 5 in government, it's hard to point to much that she's achieved. She's still pretty anonymous, despite quite a long period in which she could have made a name for herself. That's consistent with Lord Frost's criticism of her, which was basically not being someone you could rely on to get things done. A government of drift without much leadership might beckon.

    Obviously as Prime Minister that anonymity wouldn't last. So I think that, as a blank sheet, and someone who would only be defined by default rather than doings of her own making, she would come to be defined by the cost of living crisis and accompanying recession that we're at the start of. Heading into stagflation beyond mid-term, the political and economic cycles seem out of kilter now, and the Conservatives will be very lucky if the economy and living standards recover by the end of 2024.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    PB train fans: Class 52 Western in Rail Blue livery parked outside NRM at York, looks very nice.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,228

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    It will be more like Phoenix than Florida, given the low humidity.

    The Tour de France was racing yesterday in temperatures of 35C in the alpine valleys so it clearly can be done.

    However, pouring chilled drinks bottles over your head is not normal for a round of golf, nor is having a car follow you round with an endless supply of same.

    I suppose if you are one of those golfers with a hideous motorised trolley you could load it up with 8 litres of water.

    Personally, I wouldn't do it.
    Push trolleys for me in the UK, every time. Get a better workout then.

    If I cease posting from next Weds you'll know I didn't make it!
    I always carried a bag over the shoulder and hated any kind of trolley as they just slow you down, although I haven't played for a few years now.

    Maybe ought to dig the clubs out again (although my Northwestern driver from 1985 might have to be replaced if I want to do some bombing and gouging).
    I keep thinking about going back to playing golf. We have good public courses here that aren’t too expensive. My clubs are in the back of the garage and actually accessible now so I don’t have much excuse apart from money.
  • Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    Tories would rather lose than be ideologically impure. Same as Labour under Jezbollah.
    That's actually fairly logical. The Tories have been in power 12 years now already, the end of their time in office is a matter of when, not if.

    So do you use what time you have remaining with someone who will implement Labour policies, and may still lose anyway?

    Or do you use what time you have remaining with someone who will deliver what you want and if they they lose, at least we'll have a Labour government implementing Labour's policies and be able to have an actual opposition to Labour's policies from the right?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167

    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

    My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.
    image
    Braverman has 27 currently, not 32
    I didn't spot that, I only editted the percentages not the numbers. The original I replied to had 32 for Braverman too it seems.

    Doesn't change the outcome. On my percentages Mordaunt is narrowly knocked out, though it does narrow the gap.
    My mistake on Braverman. Now corrected.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining

    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    See e.g. previous thread header by Cyclefree.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,225
    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    May faced two massive issues: she had to get a Brexit deal; and Boris wanted her job.

    Boris then used Brexit and Brexit supporters within the party to undermine May. She did not help matters though.

    The next PM will face a much quieter Brexit situation, and there are no prominent pretenders to the throne once Boris disappears off. I can see the next PM having the solid support of the party - especially if she inherits a party that is already far behind in the polls.

    In fact, I'd argue that being 11 to 15 points behind in the polls is in some ways good for the new leader, as the party cannot realistically fall much further in the polls, and any rise could be credited to them. Whereas if they inherited a large lead, any reduction in that lead would be blamed on them. And historically, such deficits have been overturned in a few years. In May 2012, Labour were 4-13 points ahead.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176
    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are

    she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did

    said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.

    Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,225
    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    See e.g. previous thread header by Cyclefree.
    Was there any actual evidence on that threader, or was it just assertions?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    Ok, fair enough, Phoenix then.
    I know Phoenix. The desert climate is delightful Fall-Spring

    In summer, when it goes over 40C, it’s horrible and dangerous. Everyone hides indoors with the aircon

    But if you play golf in that weather, I salute your courage if not your sanity. Mad dogs and Englishmen, eh

    And now I must get up and do some WORK. Stay chilled, everyone
    I did a birding trip to Arizona in late May. Which was toasty around Tucson but quite wonderful at 9,000 feet around Mount Lemon.

    I was a group f lads from Brum. We were in two cars. I pulled into one car park to see the lads in shorts and tees forming a circle around something.

    "What you got lads?"

    "A rattlesnake..."

    "Er...aren't you a bit close?"

    (In best Brummy accent:) "We want to hear it rattle...."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)




    Bye Bye PM Starmer part two
    The economic crisis the reds were hoping could sneak them into office, is coming to an end. As RCS posted the other day, it could all go away as quickly as it came. Penny Mordaunt already a lucky PM?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited July 15
    One thing is for sure, the Tory membership will not forgive the MPs if a Truss-Sunak stitch up is presented to them. I'd expect an abysmal turnout.
    Edit: Not sure the country would either.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)




    Not the Mail. Hatchet job in progress.

    I wonder whether the Tory members are Mail readers? I would guess more likely Telegraph?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    See e.g. previous thread header by Cyclefree.
    Was there any actual evidence on that threader, or was it just assertions?
    Have to go and work, but there's enough detail there to have a google.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    edited July 15
    Deleted. Screwed up the quotes and wasn’t worth fixing
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    Tories would rather lose than be ideologically impure. Same as Labour under Jezbollah.
    That's actually fairly logical. The Tories have been in power 12 years now already, the end of their time in office is a matter of when, not if.

    So do you use what time you have remaining with someone who will implement Labour policies, and may still lose anyway?

    Or do you use what time you have remaining with someone who will deliver what you want and if they they lose, at least we'll have a Labour government implementing Labour's policies and be able to have an actual opposition to Labour's policies from the right?
    Yeah that would make sense - if that was their rationale. But I think it is a little dumber than that. When you get these echo chamber cults everyone inside is absolutely convinced that they are right.

    So its not that they think "we're going to lose anyway", its "we will win and we need to ensure we have the right kind of policies and leader".

    I said less than a week ago that I knew nothing about Badenoch. I now know a little, and have been intrigued by the prospect of her becoming PM. But if she is as right wing as is being suggested then it must be well hidden - she doesn't look and sound like one in the traditional sense.

    Which means she could lead an intriguing new kind of modernist right wing government. That really could be interesting - I may disagree with most policy positions on the right but that is usually because they are divisive and reactionary. Badenoch doesn't sound like either of those, so what would her brand of Conservatism look like?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are

    she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did

    said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.

    Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
    I’m not sure that necessarily makes her any worse than the other candidates but that’s cynicism. The first is a claim all of vote leave made. It was wank but then any leaver needs to own that. The second is understandable. The Tory bete noir must be stroked but I’d rather she didn’t obfuscate. “I have changed my mind” is the easiest reverse ferret ever, even if transparent bollocks. And I am shocked, shocked that politicians would claim credit for other peoples work.

    Doesn’t mean I especially like her but I don’t think it’s materially worse than the script kiddie, the tax dodger or the fruitcake. If anything it shows how shaky that field is.
  • The Mail has a lot of sway unfortunately. Of course Penny should win.

    As for the new leader they need to overturn a double digit lead, what bounce did Johnson get?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    May faced two massive issues: she had to get a Brexit deal; and Boris wanted her job.

    Boris then used Brexit and Brexit supporters within the party to undermine May. She did not help matters though.

    The next PM will face a much quieter Brexit situation, and there are no prominent pretenders to the throne once Boris disappears off. I can see the next PM having the solid support of the party - especially if she inherits a party that is already far behind in the polls.

    In fact, I'd argue that being 11 to 15 points behind in the polls is in some ways good for the new leader, as the party cannot realistically fall much further in the polls, and any rise could be credited to them. Whereas if they inherited a large lead, any reduction in that lead would be blamed on them. And historically, such deficits have been overturned in a few years. In May 2012, Labour were 4-13 points ahead.
    The economy has the potential to make Brexit like a picnic and Mordaunt will face a number of people who think that the job is theirs and there to be taken. I wouldn’t assume that the malign influence of Boris will go away completely. It could very well be brutal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, the Tory membership will not forgive the MPs if a Truss-Sunak stitch up is presented to them. I'd expect an abysmal turnout.
    Edit: Not sure the country would either.

    MPs will be back in their own patches this weekend. No doubt local members will make their feelings very known if they are all desperate to vote for PM and not see a Truss-Sunak stitch up.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    edited July 15

    PB train fans: Class 52 Western in Rail Blue livery parked outside NRM at York, looks very nice.

    What takes you to York today, @OnlyLivingBoy ?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,237

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)




    Which might pose an interesting question if she doesn't get through to the membership round but she keeps that kind of level of support. Will this pose problems for a Sunak or a Truss?

    Will she run again in 2024 when Labour win the GE and the vacancy comes up for Leader of the Opposition? If she remains popular with the membership and works on establishing her policies and positions on various subjects then she could be primed for another shot at it

    It might turn out that her time might actually be next time.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,897
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, the Tory membership will not forgive the MPs if a Truss-Sunak stitch up is presented to them. I'd expect an abysmal turnout.
    Edit: Not sure the country would either.

    The country wouldn’t give a flying f *ck!

    They are more concerned by the CoL crisis, the failing NHS and the negative impacts of Brexit.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780

    The Mail has a lot of sway unfortunately. Of course Penny should win.

    As for the new leader they need to overturn a double digit lead, what bounce did Johnson get?

    It failed in it’s stated aims of to saving Johnson or defenestrating Starmer - all within the last month.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,228

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)


    Bye Bye PM Starmer part two
    The economic crisis the reds were hoping could sneak them into office, is coming to an end. As RCS posted the other day, it could all go away as quickly as it came. Penny Mordaunt already a lucky PM?




    Gas isn’t going to fall any time soon (the major inflationary driver) and the weak dollar means petrol prices will stay high. Food prices are still going to be high for as long as the UA war goes on. Labour supply is still short (as can be seen by the airports). I’d quite like it all to go away soon for personal reasons, but I think it’s fantasy to believe it so.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,402
    edited July 15
    Cocked up post. No idea how.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    OnboardG1 said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    It will be more like Phoenix than Florida, given the low humidity.

    The Tour de France was racing yesterday in temperatures of 35C in the alpine valleys so it clearly can be done.

    However, pouring chilled drinks bottles over your head is not normal for a round of golf, nor is having a car follow you round with an endless supply of same.

    I suppose if you are one of those golfers with a hideous motorised trolley you could load it up with 8 litres of water.

    Personally, I wouldn't do it.
    Push trolleys for me in the UK, every time. Get a better workout then.

    If I cease posting from next Weds you'll know I didn't make it!
    I always carried a bag over the shoulder and hated any kind of trolley as they just slow you down, although I haven't played for a few years now.

    Maybe ought to dig the clubs out again (although my Northwestern driver from 1985 might have to be replaced if I want to do some bombing and gouging).
    I keep thinking about going back to playing golf. We have good public courses here that aren’t too expensive. My clubs are in the back of the garage and actually accessible now so I don’t have much excuse apart from money.
    Yes, it is expensive if you aren't committed to playing 'full time' as it were, particularly if you want to play at a decent course.

    It isn't that so much, though. I always enjoyed the game and the competition (particularly matchplay) but don't get on that well with Golf Clubs. Perhaps I'm just antisocial or perhaps I just get bored talking about the latest football goings on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    I said that yesterday - tighter than a pismire's posterior.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,362
    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)


    Which might pose an interesting question if she doesn't get through to the membership round but she keeps that kind of level of support. Will this pose problems for a Sunak or a Truss?

    Will she run again in 2024 when Labour win the GE and the vacancy comes up for Leader of the Opposition? If she remains popular with the membership and works on establishing her policies and positions on various subjects then she could be primed for another shot at it

    It might turn out that her time might actually be next time.

    If she retaiins her seat in the Truss-led wipeout.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,372
    Thetford Boudica (Breckland) council by-election result:

    LAB: 51.0% (+4.7)
    CON: 49.0% (-4.7)

    Votes cast: 781
    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Labour gain one in Truss' constituency as i suggested would happen yesterday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, the Tory membership will not forgive the MPs if a Truss-Sunak stitch up is presented to them. I'd expect an abysmal turnout.
    Edit: Not sure the country would either.

    MPs will be back in their own patches this weekend. No doubt local members will make their feelings very known if they are all desperate to vote for PM and not see a Truss-Sunak stitch up.

    They would vote for Truss heavily in that scenario anyway.

    It looks like defeat whichever way for Sunak now, whether knocked out by MPs in the final round next week or heavily beaten by Mordaunt or Truss if he gets to the members ballot
  • IshmaelZ said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are

    she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did

    said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.

    Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
    I agree with the other things you've mentioned, and don't want Mordaunt to win, but feel compelled to defend her on the Turkey issue as she was absolutely correct then. Remember this is before the failed coup in Turkey and the retaliation by Erdogan which saw accession moves halted.

    We, the British public, did not have a veto over any nation acceding. David Cameron as PM (or his successor) could veto it, absolutely, but it was stated policy of David Cameron's government at the time to have Turkey accede. In fact Cameron had spoken vocally and clearly on why Turkey should accede and what steps should be taken to accelerate that.

    Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were elected on a referendum commitment not to implement the EU Constitution without a referendum, yet it was rebranded the Lisbon Treaty and implemented without one anyway after which point it was impossible to reverse it. The UK public lacked a veto, despite Gordon Brown having one.

    If Turkey had acceded in the same way, with the government of the day allowing it just as Brown allowed Lisbon (and it was Cameron's stated policy to not just allow but encourage and facilitate it) then we the public would never have had a say and never have had a veto to wield.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    Fairly normal for Dubai this time of year though
  • PaulSimonPaulSimon Posts: 9
    I can't quite put my finger on why, but I just don't trust Mordaunt. She consistently refuses to articulate a coherent political or philosophical position, which to me suggests she either doesn't have one, or she does, but knows it wouldn't be popular with the selectorate. My suspicion is we'd get the policies of Theresa May wrapped up in the presentational skills of David Cameron. Yuck.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

    BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

    Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
    Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

    And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

    I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
    How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

    Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
    Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

    Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
    You have a go

    What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

    1. The all time UK high temp record going

    2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

    50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.
    We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%
    So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

    (Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

    Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

    And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England


    The full quote was:

    "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"


    No reference to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

    But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.
    It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk
    Where is the explicit reference in your post?

    There was no blockquote, no link, no paste of that chart.
    Are you just a fucking moron? Or actually the full and complete fucking moron?
    ....

    So that’s what I was referring to in my very next comment, you pitiful dung-eater
    Is the heat getting to you ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    Pro_Rata said:

    PB train fans: Class 52 Western in Rail Blue livery parked outside NRM at York, looks very nice.

    What takes you to York today, @OnlyLivingBoy ?
    Post-wedding party of an old school friend up in Aviemore. Lunch with my brother in Edinburgh first. Accompanied by my lovely 15yo daughter. We were meant to go up on the sleeper last night but it got cancelled. 😢
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Think we're seeing further evidence for Cummings' claim that if the ERG had been left in charge of the Leave campaign we'd still be in the EU. https://twitter.com/JackElsom/status/1547846783467802630
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    Pro_Rata said:

    PB train fans: Class 52 Western in Rail Blue livery parked outside NRM at York, looks very nice.

    What takes you to York today, @OnlyLivingBoy ?
    Post-wedding party of an old school friend up in Aviemore. Lunch with my brother in Edinburgh first. Accompanied by my lovely 15yo daughter. We were meant to go up on the sleeper last night but it got cancelled. 😢
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    PaulSimon said:

    I can't quite put my finger on why, but I just don't trust Mordaunt. She consistently refuses to articulate a coherent political or philosophical position, which to me suggests she either doesn't have one, or she does, but knows it wouldn't be popular with the selectorate. My suspicion is we'd get the policies of Theresa May wrapped up in the presentational skills of David Cameron. Yuck.

    Her background is PR.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    PaulSimon said:

    I can't quite put my finger on why, but I just don't trust Mordaunt. She consistently refuses to articulate a coherent political or philosophical position, which to me suggests she either doesn't have one, or she does, but knows it wouldn't be popular with the selectorate. My suspicion is we'd get the policies of Theresa May wrapped up in the presentational skills of David Cameron. Yuck.

    She's written a whole book on it; what has Truss ever written?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    edited July 15

    Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
    "....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

    Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

    Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

    Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

    The remaining % is don't knows.

    So Mordaunt is the public's preferred PM over Sunak and Truss but Sunak is preferred to Truss.

    So Truss the public's least popular choice for next Tory leader and PM.

    Conservative 2019 voters also prefer Mordaunt to Sunak 45% to 32% and Mordaunt to Truss 33% to 30%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1547873650899951617?s=20&t=n2BA8zomNv3YQTg1mjlCgA
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    Cookie said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

    Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

    The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
    The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
    That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

    There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
    Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋

    Bye Bye PM Starmer part one
    Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling.
    (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)


    Which might pose an interesting question if she doesn't get through to the membership round but she keeps that kind of level of support. Will this pose problems for a Sunak or a Truss?

    Will she run again in 2024 when Labour win the GE and the vacancy comes up for Leader of the Opposition? If she remains popular with the membership and works on establishing her policies and positions on various subjects then she could be primed for another shot at it

    It might turn out that her time might actually be next time.
    If she retaiins her seat in the Truss-led wipeout.

    The paradox is that of all those remaining (pun there), Lizzy Lightweight is the only one that would guarantee me voting LD (or poss even Labour) at the next GE. She is continuity Bozo. How the feck can someone genuinely go on a political journey from LD to Tory remainer and then to being the darling of the ERG? Like Johnson she is a liar, a chancer. Worse than that she is a hopeless lightweight too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Okay guys, instead of wild hysteria, some serious advice for coping with extreme temperatures.

    Assuming you don’t have air-con at home, keep South-facing windows closed and covered, from the outside if possible. Don’t open windows unless its windy outside. Drink lots of water. Use an electric fan, dehumidifier, HEPA filter etc, if you have one. Keep internal doors and curtains closed during the day.

    Consider spending the heat of the day (midday-4pm ish) in your car (in the shade), or an air-conditioned building such as an office, shopping mall or large bar. If you go anywhere in your car, take a gallon of drinking water in case of accident or breakdown.

    Don’t exercise outdoors, even if you consider it part of your routine.

    Wearing a cold and wet t-shirt (no sniggering!) can also help cool you down. Otherwise, cotton underwear and as little additional clothing as is decent.

    If it’s humid, don’t go outside for more than a few minutes. The body cannot sweat if the air temperature is higher than the body temperature and humidity is high. This WILL kill you.

    Remember to check on elderly and vulnerable people you know, make sure they understand the above. Watch each other for symptoms of sunstroke and heat exhaustion. Children are also more affected by heat, make sure they’re wearing sunscreen if running around the garden. Don’t forget the dog, give them lots of water and don’t go for long walks.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited July 15
    Heh it looks like @Leon might have been right about the weather. I am happy to hold my hands up and say I got it wrong
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,112
    In the small print he says this requires movement from the EU. It is arguable that all policies which make this requirement are versions of cakeism.

    He doesn't explain what the policies are that work outside 'flexibility' from the EU.

  • Sandpit said:

    Okay guys, instead of wild hysteria, some serious advice for coping with extreme temperatures.

    Assuming you don’t have air-con at home, keep South-facing windows closed and covered, from the outside if possible. Don’t open windows unless its windy outside. Drink lots of water. Use an electric fan, dehumidifier, HEPA filter etc, if you have one. Keep internal doors and curtains closed during the day.

    Consider spending the heat of the day (midday-4pm ish) in your car (in the shade), or an air-conditioned building such as an office, shopping mall or large bar. If you go anywhere in your car, take a gallon of drinking water in case of accident or breakdown.

    Don’t exercise outdoors, even if you consider it part of your routine.

    Wearing a cold and wet t-shirt (no sniggering!) can also help cool you down. Otherwise, cotton underwear and as little additional clothing as is decent.

    If it’s humid, don’t go outside for more than a few minutes. The body cannot sweat if the air temperature is higher than the body temperature and humidity is high. This WILL kill you.

    Remember to check on elderly and vulnerable people you know, make sure they understand the above. Watch each other for symptoms of sunstroke and heat exhaustion. Children are also more affected by heat, make sure they’re wearing sunscreen if running around the garden. Don’t forget the dog, give them lots of water and don’t go for long walks.

    Why are you such a snowflake?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited July 15

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

    Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
    All politicians have at best a nodding acquaintanceship with the truth. It is never a close friendship.

    As far as I can see, PM is no better or no worse than most of the other 648 MPs.

    648, because I have obviously taken Boris out of the sample as a gross outlier.
    Gross-out liar?
    I seem to recall his pledging not to get involved in the contest for his successor, a couple of days ago.
    I'm astonished that he might not have been telling the truth.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,227
    edited July 15

    The paradox is that of all those remaining (pun there), Lizzy Lightweight is the only one that would guarantee me voting LD (or poss even Labour) at the next GE. She is continuity Bozo. How the feck can someone genuinely go on a political journey from LD to Tory remainer and then to being the darling of the ERG? Like Johnson she is a liar, a chancer. Worse than that she is a hopeless lightweight too.

    Errr, have you never heard of the zeal of the convert?

    I went from Lab in my first election to Tory Remainer to ERG-style views (only on the issue of Europe, I dislike much of the ERG on other issue).

    Williamglenn and RochdalePioneers have equally been on journeys too.

    I find it hard to trust people who haven't been on political journeys. It implies like with Jezza Corbyn that they're too thick to think through the issues and so have stuck with their ossified views from decades ago regardless of what has changed since then.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    HYUFD said:

    Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
    "....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

    Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

    Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

    Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

    The remaining % is don't knows.

    So Mordaunt is the public's preferred PM over Sunak and Truss but Sunak is preferred to Truss.

    So Truss the public's least popular choice for next Tory leader and PM
    Those are hardly overwhelming, mind.
    Probably a lot to do with name recognition. It's noticeable both polls with Sunak have over 70% opinions.
    Trust /Mordaunt barely over 50%. Suggesting vast numbers don't know them.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.

    True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
    What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
    I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are

    she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did

    said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.

    Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
    Thanks for the summary. Well, if these are the best her opponents can get it is not really a knockout blow. I am all in favour of honesty in politics (hence why I was so agin Johnson), but really? How many politicians haven't said a couple of inaccuracies or claimed credit for something that was someone elses?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,602
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    That's normal for those of us who go on golfing holidays to Florida and Phoenix!
    As I have just proved, 40C is not normal at all in Florida. It’s a coastal state

    You get 40C on the odd day - once a decade. So, you’re wrong


    Fairly normal for Dubai this time of year though
    Not unusual in northern India in April/May - beginning of June until the monsoon brings relief. Most people don't have air conditioning. As a young man I survived Indian summers without much problem, though for sure it was uncomfortable sometimes.
    But it gets tougher the older you get.
This discussion has been closed.