Worst building i visted was a university department where each floor had an inner central open plan offices which had glass roofs like a greenhouse and glass walls all round. Walkway around each was surrounded by other smaller offices to the outside world, which were all glass....
What you have done their is make a greenhouses inside a greenhouse....
I imagine great for growing tomatoes, less so growing PhD students.
Is the Cambridge History Library still a thing? A friend of mine lived in Fenland City and studied there in the summer hols - I remember him telling me about its sun-concentrating design, two blocks at an angle reflecting onto the inner quarter-domed reading room.
It's now the Seeley History Library, and seems to be up for decolonisation by the Planks:
Three university societies have backed the petition which is calling on the university's history department to rename the Seeley Historical Library because its current name celebrates John Robert Seeley, a Cambridge historian “known for his justification of the British Empire" (Wiki)
Governments change the names of their departments all the time (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities?). Companies change their names all the time (Meta?). Even Prince Charles is planning to change his name on accession to the throne! Why can’t historical libraries change their names too?
Because the entire point of a historical library is to preserve the past - warts and all - not to whitewash it and pretend it never happened?
There's a difference between providing access to historical books no matter how offensive, and honouring a historical figure by naming the library after them.
Sure there is, and I for one totally believe that bowing to pressure on the latter will absolutely not ultimately lead to movement on the former.
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
Rishi Sunak is a Hindu. Does that mean disestablishment, too? Nasty undercurrent pops up every so often.
For a long time, it was legal for the heir to the throne to marry a Hindu, but not a Catholic.
Boris is a Catholic on paper. just means he is recused from choosing bishops. This guy needs to keep up.
Unionist, and (at least formerly) UUP, so possibly - but not at all certainly - Presbyterian so I wondered if he had ever been consistent and complained about the lack of non-CoE bishop-analogues in the lords.
But no mention in Wiki, though some other stuff of, erm, interest, such as the fact that 'Taylor had previously been labelled an "old racist dinosaur" by Piers Morgan', which I thought was particularly unkind, and 'During the Euro 2021 football competition, Taylor posted remarks on Twitter criticising the Spain national football team for not singing their national anthem at the start of football matches. Commentators responded by pointing out that the Spanish national anthem does not, in fact, have any lyrics.[29]'
Among nearly 21,000 people in the U.K. Biobank cohort, alcohol intake above 7 weekly units (56 g, or about four standard drinks per week in the U.S.) was associated with markers of higher brain iron in multiple basal ganglia regions, according to Anya Topiwala, PhD, of the University of Oxford in England, and co-authors
Markers of higher brain iron were in turn associated with poorer scores on tests of executive function, fluid intelligence, and reaction speed, Topiwala and colleagues reported in PLoS Medicine.
"This is the first study, to our knowledge, demonstrating higher brain iron in moderate drinkers," Topiwala told MedPage Today. "The findings offer a potential pathway through which alcohol can cause cognitive decline."...
We don’t need all this academic studying, when we have Leon.
I was born with a marked deficiency of brain iron in my basal ganglia regions.
Seems she's worried she doesn't have the numbers. I suspect she's right. I think she'll finish third.
Neither Sunak not Truss will lend votes to the other to push Mordaunt out, because neither have enough to lend.
But between Braverman and Badenoch I think Truss has more support than Mordaunt does.
You are presuming too much about the Badenoch votes all piling on Truss to sneak her over the line.
Truss is untrusted. She bombed. She is already out mate.
PM is PM because the polls of voters, Tory members and focus groups of working class voters on red wall all prefer her to both Sunak and Starmer, there is no stopping that sort of momentum.
It's funny that Sunak is being criticised for his Covid-onomics on here when IIRC it was only @contrarian who from the getgo foresaw the eventual situation we're in now.
Hold on a minute, I remember raising a lot of objections around the furlough scheme being as generous as it was and the seemingly unlimited extensions that kept being given. It should have been lesser funded and ended in April 2021 once we came out of lockdown. I was also unconvinced around the idea of just giving out loans to any "business" that asked for one without requiring proof that it actually traded and that it existed for at least some amount of time before COVID started. Additionally I'm also pretty sure I said that the self-employment grants were far, far too generous and impossible to properly police and should have been done as reclaimable rebate by HMRC depending on full year income vs previous year income.
There were a lot of people worrying about the eventual COVID bill at the time, you and I included.
Indeed, the criticism from early 2021 onwards especially was very widespread and from late 2021 Sunak's policies have been extremely criticised here.
The problem with contrarian was not that he didn't ask some good questions (he did) but that he used some very poor and extreme arguments to come to opposing conclusions.
Too many critics of lockdown policies were basically saying that there was no problem and people wouldn't die and it was all being done to further an agenda. That was gibberish.
I've quite openly said, and others like yourself have too, that we need to be more accepting of death and that trying to prevent every death isn't either possible or desirable at any price.
He was the forceful voice, of course jagged around the edges, that sounded warnings from the start. He foresaw that the measures would end up with the crisis we currently face.
In particular it gave us zero wiggle room if any exogenous shocks arose. And arisen they have.
He was boringly overstating the obvious. Analogously, if the unanimous medical advice was that you needed one of your legs amputated, he was the voice crying in the wilderness "You'll be really crap in the 100 metre hurdles, I hope you realise."
Don't delude yourself Ishmael,. You were clapping lockdown like all the other seals on the site in 2020 and 2021. There was almost universal approval of shutting schools down for months on here.
Policies that no sensible person would suggest nowadays were rapturously applauded and defended to the hilt. You were in the vanguard of that defence.
You weren't here so how do you know? Quotes to illustrate please, or it didn't happen.
And you entirely miss the point anyway. Per the analogy, anyone sane is recommending the amputation as against the alternative.
I seem to recall a post from Robert confirming that Misty was very much present when Contrarian was posting. Could be my bad memory though.
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Who, aside from Gove, are the Badenoch - Sunak switchers ?
You’d think that most of the Badenoch vote goes to Truss, rather than Sunak.
A fair amount of the Braverman vote probably goes to Badenoch then to Truss, rather than to Truss directly in the next round too.
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
BJ was born RC, and became Anglican at school aiui.
Has he de-converted back?
You can't conclude from his marriage at Westminster Cathedral unless there has been a specific statement. The RC Church have no problem with Protestants being married in an RC Church, but I think they may expect the children to be RC.
Doesn't need to be baptised again, which is what counts.
Another issue AIUI is the prior marriage(s). It's not possible to marry as a divorcee in a RC church without, de facto and perhaps de jure, wirting off the earlier marriages as invalid, which means signing up to RC doctrine.
It's funny that Sunak is being criticised for his Covid-onomics on here when IIRC it was only @contrarian who from the getgo foresaw the eventual situation we're in now.
Hold on a minute, I remember raising a lot of objections around the furlough scheme being as generous as it was and the seemingly unlimited extensions that kept being given. It should have been lesser funded and ended in April 2021 once we came out of lockdown. I was also unconvinced around the idea of just giving out loans to any "business" that asked for one without requiring proof that it actually traded and that it existed for at least some amount of time before COVID started. Additionally I'm also pretty sure I said that the self-employment grants were far, far too generous and impossible to properly police and should have been done as reclaimable rebate by HMRC depending on full year income vs previous year income.
There were a lot of people worrying about the eventual COVID bill at the time, you and I included.
Indeed, the criticism from early 2021 onwards especially was very widespread and from late 2021 Sunak's policies have been extremely criticised here.
The problem with contrarian was not that he didn't ask some good questions (he did) but that he used some very poor and extreme arguments to come to opposing conclusions.
Too many critics of lockdown policies were basically saying that there was no problem and people wouldn't die and it was all being done to further an agenda. That was gibberish.
I've quite openly said, and others like yourself have too, that we need to be more accepting of death and that trying to prevent every death isn't either possible or desirable at any price.
He was the forceful voice, of course jagged around the edges, that sounded warnings from the start. He foresaw that the measures would end up with the crisis we currently face.
In particular it gave us zero wiggle room if any exogenous shocks arose. And arisen they have.
He was boringly overstating the obvious. Analogously, if the unanimous medical advice was that you needed one of your legs amputated, he was the voice crying in the wilderness "You'll be really crap in the 100 metre hurdles, I hope you realise."
Don't delude yourself Ishmael,. You were clapping lockdown like all the other seals on the site in 2020 and 2021. There was almost universal approval of shutting schools down for months on here.
Policies that no sensible person would suggest nowadays were rapturously applauded and defended to the hilt. You were in the vanguard of that defence.
You weren't here so how do you know? Quotes to illustrate please, or it didn't happen.
And you entirely miss the point anyway. Per the analogy, anyone sane is recommending the amputation as against the alternative.
I seem to recall a post from Robert confirming that Misty was very much present when Contrarian was posting. Could be my bad memory though.
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
Rishi Sunak is a Hindu. Does that mean disestablishment, too? Nasty undercurrent pops up every so often.
For a long time, it was legal for the heir to the throne to marry a Hindu, but not a Catholic.
Am well aware of that. I was brought up to know I could aspire to be anything in the UK. Except marry a royal or be PM. That was illegal. Thankfully we've moved on. Or most of us anyways.
The royal family should be allowed to marry whoever they want. They should also be able to divorce whoever they like, which is a sticking point.
By the way I am belatedly on the Kemi train having watched some of her recent q&a’s on YouTube. Intriguing that the ERG are split. There’s got to be a chance that Kemi storms the debates, edges out Truss and then takes down one of Sunak or Mordaunt into the final two. From there I think she beats whoever is against her.
I think it was Woolie that posted, the libdems were getting bigger swings from Tory’s in blue wall again this week, than the midling con>Lab lab getting in redwall - did this leap out to you too as you were doing your analysis James?
The LibDems certainly seem to have a higher ceiling than Lab for swings. It'll be interesting to see what happens after the new Con leader is chosen.
Despite being midterm and everything anti Tory going on, the Tory vote all this year does seem a bit sticky in the redwall and hard for Labour to grab back. There is enough evidence to say that without anyone disagreeing with me isn’t there?
If she did though she'd make it to the final and the members because the Truss votes would go disproportionately to her, not Mordaunt or Sunak.
I wouldn’t expect 40% of TT to break to Kemi. Some maybe, but they don’t strike me as being particularly aligned from a candidate profile. PM seems much more transfer friendly re TT.
More likely IMHO is the ERG don’t follow Baker, Braverman and Francois to Truss, and Braverman’s backers instead heavily break for Kemi. You end up with Truss-Kemi in the mid-high 60s apiece, so close to each other that it gives Badenoch the momentum to push above Truss in the next round as the right desert her and see she can’t win.
Plausible with a barnstorming set of debate performances from Kemi and a car crash from Liz, which must at least be possible.
With my hindsight vision enabled, personally I would have basically done very little to halt COVID in the UK. I have now come to realise that the old people for whom we burned through £400bn to save the lives are bunch of ungrateful bastards and will continue to screw every last penny out of working age people until they die. If a few hundred thousand extra had snuffed it then it would have solved the care crisis, the NHS crisis, pensions overhang and freed up hundreds of thousands of homes for working age people, and we wouldn't have spent £400bn to keep them alive. My generation and my daughter's generation wouldn't be facing decades of high taxes for it and we'd have a lot of fiscal headroom.
If they weren't so ungrateful I'd maybe feel differently about it, but all I see is the old wankers we ruined two years of our lives for, spend £400bn on saving rinse generations below them for all we're worth so they can live forever with their hands in our pockets.
If your life was 'ruined' by the Covid rules for two years, then I'd argue it might be a problem with your 'life'. The Covid restrictions were sh*t, but there was still lots to do. True, it might not be quite what you would ordinarily do, but there was still stuff to do. Heck, I had a five/six-year old to homeschool, and I don't appear to have found it as a challenging as you.
And if it saved a few hundred thousand people (not just oldies either), then fair enough. Especially for the first lockdown, where we were unsure what the heck we were facing. Sometimes you just have to knuckle down and get on with things.
I really don't understand how you can say your life was 'ruined'. And before you say, I like going out. I like doing things. I like visiting places. But when I could not do these, I adapted. I even found some new things I enjoyed.
I'm actually quite an insular person. My favourite hobbies are things like knitting and walking, which weren't affected by lockdown. I expected to sail through it. There were a few jokes along the lines of, "this is what we've been training for."
But it really was monumentally awful. I find it so much harder to leave the house at all now. And I was lucky in where I spent my lockdowns and with whom. I don't think it does to underestimate the sacrifice made.
And then there really should be a quid pro quo for such sacrifices, given the age profile of who the disease killed. But Max is right. Not only did the young give up their freedom to save the old, they're now being expected to pay for the privilege.
I don't go as far as Max and day that I'd kill all the old if I had my time in the pandemic over again. But I can't disagree that the old are talking the piss.
By the way I am belatedly on the Kemi train having watched some of her recent q&a’s on YouTube. Intriguing that the ERG are split. There’s got to be a chance that Kemi storms the debates, edges out Truss and then takes down one of Sunak or Mordaunt into the final two. From there I think she beats whoever is against her.
Yes, it’s a narrow path but she can definitely still win. A genuinely impressive candidate, as David Cameron was in 2005.
She certainly has little to lose at this stage, should go all-in with lots of interviews and hustings.
"Oof. Wrong to leave EU now 53%, a new high, right to leave 35%, a new low. Meanwhile the Tory leadership candidates compete to show their Brexit purity.
The Brexit boat is close to capsizing. The point is rapidly approaching where the consensus is that Brexit is a mistake to be mitigated. The politicians are well behind this curve."
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Who, aside from Gove, are the Badenoch - Sunak switchers ?
Do we think Gove is a Badenoch-Sunak switcher? Genuinely curious on this one. I guess it makes sense given they were in government together and Sunak is not the continuity Boris candidate, but what of PM? She’s a Brexiteer and a bit Cameroony which is of course the wing of the party Gove started out on. I have no insight into their relationship however.
By the way I am belatedly on the Kemi train having watched some of her recent q&a’s on YouTube. Intriguing that the ERG are split. There’s got to be a chance that Kemi storms the debates, edges out Truss and then takes down one of Sunak or Mordaunt into the final two. From there I think she beats whoever is against her.
Yes, it’s a narrow path but she can definitely still win. A genuinely impressive candidate, as David Cameron was in 2005.
She certainly has little to lose at this stage, should go all-in with lots of interviews and hustings.
She’s one of the few uk politicians that you might be arsed to sit through a Joe Rogan length free range interview. The key is her taking down Truss. Tommy Tug described her on LBC as a personal friend, so you never know how things might play out with the debates. Might we see a Kemi-gasm among Tory MPs?
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Who, aside from Gove, are the Badenoch - Sunak switchers ?
Do we think Gove is a Badenoch-Sunak switcher? Genuinely curious on this one. I guess it makes sense given they were in government together and Sunak is not the continuity Boris candidate, but what of PM? She’s a Brexiteer and a bit Cameroony which is of course the wing of the party Gove started out on. I have no insight into their relationship however.
Gove's a crafty git. The ideal place to be to exert maximum influence is to back the fourth placed candidate.
Seems she's worried she doesn't have the numbers. I suspect she's right. I think she'll finish third.
Neither Sunak not Truss will lend votes to the other to push Mordaunt out, because neither have enough to lend.
But between Braverman and Badenoch I think Truss has more support than Mordaunt does.
You are presuming too much about the Badenoch votes all piling on Truss to sneak her over the line.
Truss is untrusted. She bombed. She is already out mate.
PM is PM because the polls of voters, Tory members and focus groups of working class voters on red wall all prefer her to both Sunak and Starmer, there is no stopping that sort of momentum.
I know all this because I told I so.
She isn't out yet and may still win.
I gave my numbers earlier. I'm not assuming that all Badenoch votes pile on Truss, if you did then she'd come first by a landslide.
I estimated 60% of Badenoch and Braverman's votes transfer to Truss, and 60% of Tugendhat's to Mordaunt. With Sunak getting 30% of everyone's.
That's just a finger in the air guesstimate but that leaves Mordaunt languishing in third by just a few votes.
But she could come first, second or third depending upon how things play out. Nothing is certain.
With my hindsight vision enabled, personally I would have basically done very little to halt COVID in the UK. I have now come to realise that the old people for whom we burned through £400bn to save the lives are bunch of ungrateful bastards and will continue to screw every last penny out of working age people until they die. If a few hundred thousand extra had snuffed it then it would have solved the care crisis, the NHS crisis, pensions overhang and freed up hundreds of thousands of homes for working age people, and we wouldn't have spent £400bn to keep them alive. My generation and my daughter's generation wouldn't be facing decades of high taxes for it and we'd have a lot of fiscal headroom.
If they weren't so ungrateful I'd maybe feel differently about it, but all I see is the old wankers we ruined two years of our lives for, spend £400bn on saving rinse generations below them for all we're worth so they can live forever with their hands in our pockets.
If your life was 'ruined' by the Covid rules for two years, then I'd argue it might be a problem with your 'life'. The Covid restrictions were sh*t, but there was still lots to do. True, it might not be quite what you would ordinarily do, but there was still stuff to do. Heck, I had a five/six-year old to homeschool, and I don't appear to have found it as a challenging as you.
And if it saved a few hundred thousand people (not just oldies either), then fair enough. Especially for the first lockdown, where we were unsure what the heck we were facing. Sometimes you just have to knuckle down and get on with things.
I really don't understand how you can say your life was 'ruined'. And before you say, I like going out. I like doing things. I like visiting places. But when I could not do these, I adapted. I even found some new things I enjoyed.
I'm actually quite an insular person. My favourite hobbies are things like knitting and walking, which weren't affected by lockdown. I expected to sail through it. There were a few jokes along the lines of, "this is what we've been training for."
But it really was monumentally awful. I find it so much harder to leave the house at all now. And I was lucky in where I spent my lockdowns and with whom. I don't think it does to underestimate the sacrifice made.
And then there really should be a quid pro quo for such sacrifices, given the age profile of who the disease killed. But Max is right. Not only did the young give up their freedom to save the old, they're now being expected to pay for the privilege.
I don't go as far as Max and day that I'd kill all the old if I had my time in the pandemic over again. But I can't disagree that the old are talking the piss.
Really, you can't say that sort of thing about "the old" any more than you can say it about "the Jews." This is not a quibble: in both cases you are labelling a whole class whose membership of that class is determined 100% by accident of birth. I am not sure if I am old or not - I'm 60 - but I am as appalled as anyone by the loading of NI on to working age people.
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Who, aside from Gove, are the Badenoch - Sunak switchers ?
Do we think Gove is a Badenoch-Sunak switcher? Genuinely curious on this one. I guess it makes sense given they were in government together and Sunak is not the continuity Boris candidate, but what of PM? She’s a Brexiteer and a bit Cameroony which is of course the wing of the party Gove started out on. I have no insight into their relationship however.
Gove's a crafty git. The ideal place to be to exert maximum influence is to back the fourth placed candidate.
There's a rumour that Gove wants Sunak to win and is pushing Badenoch to split the opposition on the right, knowing Badenoch would lose.
Cynical rumour, but he's one person Machiavellian enough that it might actually be true!
With my hindsight vision enabled, personally I would have basically done very little to halt COVID in the UK. I have now come to realise that the old people for whom we burned through £400bn to save the lives are bunch of ungrateful bastards and will continue to screw every last penny out of working age people until they die. If a few hundred thousand extra had snuffed it then it would have solved the care crisis, the NHS crisis, pensions overhang and freed up hundreds of thousands of homes for working age people, and we wouldn't have spent £400bn to keep them alive. My generation and my daughter's generation wouldn't be facing decades of high taxes for it and we'd have a lot of fiscal headroom.
If they weren't so ungrateful I'd maybe feel differently about it, but all I see is the old wankers we ruined two years of our lives for, spend £400bn on saving rinse generations below them for all we're worth so they can live forever with their hands in our pockets.
If your life was 'ruined' by the Covid rules for two years, then I'd argue it might be a problem with your 'life'. The Covid restrictions were sh*t, but there was still lots to do. True, it might not be quite what you would ordinarily do, but there was still stuff to do. Heck, I had a five/six-year old to homeschool, and I don't appear to have found it as a challenging as you.
And if it saved a few hundred thousand people (not just oldies either), then fair enough. Especially for the first lockdown, where we were unsure what the heck we were facing. Sometimes you just have to knuckle down and get on with things.
I really don't understand how you can say your life was 'ruined'. And before you say, I like going out. I like doing things. I like visiting places. But when I could not do these, I adapted. I even found some new things I enjoyed.
I'm actually quite an insular person. My favourite hobbies are things like knitting and walking, which weren't affected by lockdown. I expected to sail through it. There were a few jokes along the lines of, "this is what we've been training for."
But it really was monumentally awful. I find it so much harder to leave the house at all now. And I was lucky in where I spent my lockdowns and with whom. I don't think it does to underestimate the sacrifice made.
And then there really should be a quid pro quo for such sacrifices, given the age profile of who the disease killed. But Max is right. Not only did the young give up their freedom to save the old, they're now being expected to pay for the privilege.
I don't go as far as Max and day that I'd kill all the old if I had my time in the pandemic over again. But I can't disagree that the old are talking the piss.
I'm sorry you went through that, but my argument is with use of the word 'ruined'. The people whose lives were ruined were those who died, or who lost loved ones. Max, you and I still have our lives.
As an aside, we were blooming lucky during this pandemic in one regard: it did not affect the young as much. Imagine how much more hideous it would have been if the ambulances had been filled with people under 18, rather than those over 50.
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
Rishi Sunak is a Hindu. Does that mean disestablishment, too? Nasty undercurrent pops up every so often.
For a long time, it was legal for the heir to the throne to marry a Hindu, but not a Catholic.
Am well aware of that. I was brought up to know I could aspire to be anything in the UK. Except marry a royal or be PM. That was illegal. Thankfully we've moved on. Or most of us anyways.
You could marry a Royal, it's just that they'd have given up their place in the succession to do so. I think someone in the Queen's family did that.
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
Rishi Sunak is a Hindu. Does that mean disestablishment, too? Nasty undercurrent pops up every so often.
For a long time, it was legal for the heir to the throne to marry a Hindu, but not a Catholic.
Am well aware of that. I was brought up to know I could aspire to be anything in the UK. Except marry a royal or be PM. That was illegal. Thankfully we've moved on. Or most of us anyways.
You could marry a Royal, it's just that they'd have given up their place in the succession to do so. I think someone in the Queen's family did that.
All or most of the Duke of Kent's grandchildren, who would otherwise be in the high 20s I think, have poped themselves out of contention (by converting, not marrying).
Coronavirus continues to have an impact overseas, and it's been reported that China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter of this year as widespread lockdowns hit businesses and consumers.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.6% in the three months to the end of June from the previous quarter.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:
Mordaunt Sunak Tugenhadt Truss Badenoch
With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
I think your analysis is spot on.
Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
Everyone loves Penny now, even HY 😋
Bye Bye PM Starmer part one Penny’s in Heaven say the Papers. 😇 She really is the media’s darling. (And according to polling and focus groups, the electorate are in love with her too)
Bye Bye PM Starmer part two The economic crisis the reds were hoping could sneak them into office, is coming to an end. As RCS posted the other day, it could all go away as quickly as it came. Penny Mordaunt already a lucky PM?
Gas isn’t going to fall any time soon (the major inflationary driver) and the weak dollar means petrol prices will stay high. Food prices are still going to be high for as long as the UA war goes on. Labour supply is still short (as can be seen by the airports). I’d quite like it all to go away soon for personal reasons, but I think it’s fantasy to believe it so.
“ As RCS posted the other day, it could all go away as quickly as it came. ”
Where are you Robert? You convinced me, others need convincing.
The Dollar is strong, not weak.
The rate at which natural gas wells/trains are coming back on line in the US is quite impressive.
The next bottleneck is LNG ships.
Malmsy^
Me
The problem when the mini thread goes wrong (the last block quote doesn’t work) it sneaks other people words into your bit, probably why so many deleted posts below - the weak dollar bit not my line.
But RCS did post stuff the other day convincing me the crisis could ease quite quickly. Indeed, that was the original prediction before it came, up sharply down sharply wasn’t it?
Related to Penny as our new PM, voters will see her come into power and inflation fall, cost of living under control, and she is sure to get all the credit to increase her popularity with the electorate ahead of the general election, isn’t she?
The bottleneck will soon be LNG tankers. Invest in South Korean shipyard stocks - they will be working 3 shifts.
Does anyone who isn't a supporter of Kemi Badenoch see any plausible way she wins this contest?
If Truss completely bombs at the tv hustings, Kemi does excellently, then she only needs a few Truss supporters to switch to be in 3rd place on Monday. Makes the final two with Truss votes and beats Rishi. Maybe 10% chance?
I'd like to know why all the broadcasters are giving free political advertising to the conservatives with these tv debates etc. I know a new PM is being discovered, but surely the tv commentators should be asking less about who can beat who and can appeal to 200,000 superannuated well off old fossils and 3 or 4 newspaper proprietors, and more about how they are going to deal with the crisis of the cost of living in this country affecting many millions?
Seems she's worried she doesn't have the numbers. I suspect she's right. I think she'll finish third.
Neither Sunak not Truss will lend votes to the other to push Mordaunt out, because neither have enough to lend.
But between Braverman and Badenoch I think Truss has more support than Mordaunt does.
You are presuming too much about the Badenoch votes all piling on Truss to sneak her over the line.
Truss is untrusted. She bombed. She is already out mate.
PM is PM because the polls of voters, Tory members and focus groups of working class voters on red wall all prefer her to both Sunak and Starmer, there is no stopping that sort of momentum.
I know all this because I told I so.
She isn't out yet and may still win.
I gave my numbers earlier. I'm not assuming that all Badenoch votes pile on Truss, if you did then she'd come first by a landslide.
I estimated 60% of Badenoch and Braverman's votes transfer to Truss, and 60% of Tugendhat's to Mordaunt. With Sunak getting 30% of everyone's.
That's just a finger in the air guesstimate but that leaves Mordaunt languishing in third by just a few votes.
But she could come first, second or third depending upon how things play out. Nothing is certain.
It is certain though, Truss campaign bombed, the Tory right are in disarray and don’t actual rate her. It’s not about maths Bart, she is languishing where she is because her natural voter base thinks she is rubbish, just like everyone everywhere thinks she’s rubbish. She delivered her campaign launch off her mobile phone reading half a line at a time, and then couldn’t even find her way out the room.
Truss is like a bad actress in a bad drive in movie. Even if she takes her clothes off it won’t redeem the time invested in her.
Meanwhile Penny is UKs next PM, this was decided days ago. It’s all over as a contest except the formalities.
The media and the country at large have chosen Penny to replace Boris. It was all over days ago as a live contest.
CRYSTAL PALACE have sent a depleted squad on their pre-season tour with a number of un-jabbed players denied entry into Singapore. The Eagles face Liverpool in Singapore on Friday but Patrick Vieira will have just eight senior players to call on.
I'd like to know why all the broadcasters are giving free political advertising to the conservatives with these tv debates etc. I know a new PM is being discovered, but surely the tv commentators should be asking less about who can beat who and can appeal to 200,000 superannuated well off old fossils and 3 or 4 newspaper proprietors, and more about how they are going to deal with the crisis of the cost of living in this country affecting many millions?
How much do you want to bet that cost of living won’t come up in the debates?
The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.
True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are
she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did
said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.
Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
On the last, I'm not disputing that Truss was involved in commissioning the Cass Review (as I don't know the facts around that). But if she was, then why? None of her ministerial roles seem to have that within her purview. She was international trade sec when it was actually commissioned by the NHS. Prior to that (when it might have first been initiated, she was chief secretary to the treasury.
I don't know. as I say, it would be great if those making the allegations would set out the evidence. Al looks very smeary at the moment. Agree about Truss and Cass.
It's probably been said already (as I'm a couple of hours behind on this thread) but Liz Truss is also Minister for Women & Equalities. https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
@LostPassword I am sorry to read that, I am hear if you need me having had my own struggles through lockdown, especially with mental health. I know how difficult it can be, I too thought I would sail through it but these things build up inside you over time.
I will never tell you what to do because it isn't my place but counselling was a massive help for me, have you looked into this at all?
Looney appears to have missed the religion of the current pm 'if' the UK.
BJ was born RC, and became Anglican at school aiui.
Has he de-converted back?
You can't conclude from his marriage at Westminster Cathedral unless there has been a specific statement. The RC Church have no problem with Protestants being married in an RC Church, but I think they may expect the children to be RC.
There's a TON of confusions here: 1. Carrie's Catholic, and their son Wilfrid was baptised a Catholic. 2. Under Catholic doctrine, Johnson never became Anglican. He just dallied with a heretical religion in his youth - a sin, but not an act of self-excommunication. 3. So there'd be no novelty about Penny being PM and a Catholic. Nor would there be any constitutional issues: it'd just raise the kind of admin complications that not having one of those written constitution nonsenses makes it a doddle to handle. Anglican episcopal nominations just get made by a tame official and passed on to Buckingham and Lambeth Palaces.
Kilclooney's just another trouble-making Ulster Unionist spouting anything he can dream up to rubbish Papes. His Wiki entry is an extraordinary list of pig-ignorance and gratuitously offensive remarks against anyone he thinks might not share his views.
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Who, aside from Gove, are the Badenoch - Sunak switchers ?
You’d think that most of the Badenoch vote goes to Truss, rather than Sunak.
A fair amount of the Braverman vote probably goes to Badenoch then to Truss, rather than to Truss directly in the next round too.
I think some of the Badenoch vote will go to Mordaunt, as being a fresh start from the Johnson Cabinet.
Given how lacklustre the numbers for Sunak and Truss have both been, and the early failure of other Cabinet contenders like Javid and Zahawi, I think the chances of a Truss/Sunak final two must be very slim. It will be Mordaunt vs another in my view, unless the debates shake things up
"Oof. Wrong to leave EU now 53%, a new high, right to leave 35%, a new low. Meanwhile the Tory leadership candidates compete to show their Brexit purity.
The Brexit boat is close to capsizing. The point is rapidly approaching where the consensus is that Brexit is a mistake to be mitigated. The politicians are well behind this curve."
I think he is right.
That's quite a jump in a week. The only thing that might have caused that psychological shift is Boris leaving. Anything else?
CRYSTAL PALACE have sent a depleted squad on their pre-season tour with a number of un-jabbed players denied entry into Singapore. The Eagles face Liverpool in Singapore on Friday but Patrick Vieira will have just eight senior players to call on.
Leicester will be pretty bad. We are a long way from the coast, and the city sits in a shallow bowl, with no wind and a petrochemical haze when we get a high pressure sitting over us. The hospital isn't air-conditioned (apart from a few management offices and the operating theatres). It will be pretty hellish...
Leave some of these new AI stethoscopes in the waiting room and get the patients to diagnose themselves.
Does anyone who isn't a supporter of Kemi Badenoch see any plausible way she wins this contest?
If Truss completely bombs at the tv hustings, Kemi does excellently, then she only needs a few Truss supporters to switch to be in 3rd place on Monday. Makes the final two with Truss votes and beats Rishi. Maybe 10% chance?
Yes that’s definitely the cleanest way through for her. The route is through a Truss collapse and significant Suella transfers, not through TT (IMHO).
The important thing about these Mordaunt attacks is that they will not go away if she wins. They will dial down during the honeymoon, but when the bumps come ( and there will be many) she will be constantly undermined. I cite May.
True. She really needs to issue a statement now clearing the issues up.
What issues? That’s not sarcastic or rhetorical, I’m genuinely not sure what truthfulness issues are being ascribed to Mordaunt.
I am a bit vague about them and wish someone would do a 2 column list, What She Said vs What Actually happened, but the allegations are
she said in 2016 we didn't have a veto over Turkey joining EU. we did
said she had never supported gender self ID. she has.
Claimed to have initiated cass report into transitioning teens. truss did.
On the last, I'm not disputing that Truss was involved in commissioning the Cass Review (as I don't know the facts around that). But if she was, then why? None of her ministerial roles seem to have that within her purview. She was international trade sec when it was actually commissioned by the NHS. Prior to that (when it might have first been initiated, she was chief secretary to the treasury.
I don't know. as I say, it would be great if those making the allegations would set out the evidence. Al looks very smeary at the moment. Agree about Truss and Cass.
It's probably been said already (as I'm a couple of hours behind on this thread) but Liz Truss is also Minister for Women & Equalities. https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
Thanks, good point
The report itself says it was commissioned by NHS England, which I suppose is what gives wiggle room about who was "really behind it."
"Oof. Wrong to leave EU now 53%, a new high, right to leave 35%, a new low. Meanwhile the Tory leadership candidates compete to show their Brexit purity.
The Brexit boat is close to capsizing. The point is rapidly approaching where the consensus is that Brexit is a mistake to be mitigated. The politicians are well behind this curve."
I think he is right.
That's quite a jump in a week. The only thing that might have caused that psychological shift is Boris leaving. Anything else?
First wave back from euro hols and pissed off about passport queues?
With my hindsight vision enabled, personally I would have basically done very little to halt COVID in the UK. I have now come to realise that the old people for whom we burned through £400bn to save the lives are bunch of ungrateful bastards and will continue to screw every last penny out of working age people until they die. If a few hundred thousand extra had snuffed it then it would have solved the care crisis, the NHS crisis, pensions overhang and freed up hundreds of thousands of homes for working age people, and we wouldn't have spent £400bn to keep them alive. My generation and my daughter's generation wouldn't be facing decades of high taxes for it and we'd have a lot of fiscal headroom.
If they weren't so ungrateful I'd maybe feel differently about it, but all I see is the old wankers we ruined two years of our lives for, spend £400bn on saving rinse generations below them for all we're worth so they can live forever with their hands in our pockets.
And you base this contention on what evidence exactly, beyond your own bitter, twisted logic that is?
Maths, the known costs of healthcare, care and other costs (pensions, benefits) of keeping someone over 80 alive for an additional year is very high, multiply that by a big number and you get a huge ongoing saving.
My contention that they are ungrateful is based on the polling support among the old for an NI rise they stand to benefit from which is being reaped from working age people. They are stealing from our generation because they don't want to stand the cost of their own care and healthcare. Fewer of them means less need for the theft.
Utter bollocks. Given that there is little in the way of tax changes being considered or suggested by either Government that would affect the retired as much as it would affect those of working age all you are actually saying is that pensioners are terrible because they think taxes should rise. By wishing people dead simply because you have to pay a bit more tax you are a fuckwit of the first order. Maybe we should be hoping you will die before you get to retirement age so you can ease the burden on future generations.
"Oof. Wrong to leave EU now 53%, a new high, right to leave 35%, a new low. Meanwhile the Tory leadership candidates compete to show their Brexit purity.
The Brexit boat is close to capsizing. The point is rapidly approaching where the consensus is that Brexit is a mistake to be mitigated. The politicians are well behind this curve."
I think he is right.
That's quite a jump in a week. The only thing that might have caused that psychological shift is Boris leaving. Anything else?
Or the public is generally sick and tired of the divisiveness in politics / in general with the EU (who on the whole we need good relations with)
Hence why if the ERG and their love in with Frosty get their way and choose a candidate based on their “purist” Brexit agenda, they will be doomed at the next election
Among nearly 21,000 people in the U.K. Biobank cohort, alcohol intake above 7 weekly units (56 g, or about four standard drinks per week in the U.S.) was associated with markers of higher brain iron in multiple basal ganglia regions, according to Anya Topiwala, PhD, of the University of Oxford in England, and co-authors
Markers of higher brain iron were in turn associated with poorer scores on tests of executive function, fluid intelligence, and reaction speed, Topiwala and colleagues reported in PLoS Medicine.
"This is the first study, to our knowledge, demonstrating higher brain iron in moderate drinkers," Topiwala told MedPage Today. "The findings offer a potential pathway through which alcohol can cause cognitive decline."...
We don’t need all this academic studying, when we have Leon.
I KNOW
I'm already about 42 IQ points smarter than you when I'm a pathetic alky
Imagine how embarrassing the gulf would be if I ever sobered up. Scary
It is a well known fact that alcohol makes you think you are significantly better at stuff, whereas the reality is you are much worse. Sorry that +42 on the IQ is really a -42.
With my hindsight vision enabled, personally I would have basically done very little to halt COVID in the UK. I have now come to realise that the old people for whom we burned through £400bn to save the lives are bunch of ungrateful bastards and will continue to screw every last penny out of working age people until they die. If a few hundred thousand extra had snuffed it then it would have solved the care crisis, the NHS crisis, pensions overhang and freed up hundreds of thousands of homes for working age people, and we wouldn't have spent £400bn to keep them alive. My generation and my daughter's generation wouldn't be facing decades of high taxes for it and we'd have a lot of fiscal headroom.
If they weren't so ungrateful I'd maybe feel differently about it, but all I see is the old wankers we ruined two years of our lives for, spend £400bn on saving rinse generations below them for all we're worth so they can live forever with their hands in our pockets.
If your life was 'ruined' by the Covid rules for two years, then I'd argue it might be a problem with your 'life'. The Covid restrictions were sh*t, but there was still lots to do. True, it might not be quite what you would ordinarily do, but there was still stuff to do. Heck, I had a five/six-year old to homeschool, and I don't appear to have found it as a challenging as you.
And if it saved a few hundred thousand people (not just oldies either), then fair enough. Especially for the first lockdown, where we were unsure what the heck we were facing. Sometimes you just have to knuckle down and get on with things.
I really don't understand how you can say your life was 'ruined'. And before you say, I like going out. I like doing things. I like visiting places. But when I could not do these, I adapted. I even found some new things I enjoyed.
I'm actually quite an insular person. My favourite hobbies are things like knitting and walking, which weren't affected by lockdown. I expected to sail through it. There were a few jokes along the lines of, "this is what we've been training for."
But it really was monumentally awful. I find it so much harder to leave the house at all now. And I was lucky in where I spent my lockdowns and with whom. I don't think it does to underestimate the sacrifice made.
And then there really should be a quid pro quo for such sacrifices, given the age profile of who the disease killed. But Max is right. Not only did the young give up their freedom to save the old, they're now being expected to pay for the privilege.
I don't go as far as Max and day that I'd kill all the old if I had my time in the pandemic over again. But I can't disagree that the old are talking the piss.
Really, you can't say that sort of thing about "the old" any more than you can say it about "the Jews." This is not a quibble: in both cases you are labelling a whole class whose membership of that class is determined 100% by accident of birth. I am not sure if I am old or not - I'm 60 - but I am as appalled as anyone by the loading of NI on to working age people.
s/old/a majority of the old/gc And go fuck yourself for a meaningless nitpick over a shorthand. Especially a nitpick that tries to associate me with antisemitism.
@LostPassword I am sorry to read that, I am hear if you need me having had my own struggles through lockdown, especially with mental health. I know how difficult it can be, I too thought I would sail through it but these things build up inside you over time.
I will never tell you what to do because it isn't my place but counselling was a massive help for me, have you looked into this at all?
I am speaking to a professional, yes. Thanks for checking.
Seems she's worried she doesn't have the numbers. I suspect she's right. I think she'll finish third.
Neither Sunak not Truss will lend votes to the other to push Mordaunt out, because neither have enough to lend.
But between Braverman and Badenoch I think Truss has more support than Mordaunt does.
I think Penny will just squeeze through, but some or all of the following probably need to happen:
1. Some possible softness creeping in re Rishi’s support. She’d be in a much better place if she can tempt 5 or so switchers to come over from his campaign.
2. Absorbing a lot of TT support. I’d be aiming for his endorsement.
3. A strong performance at the debate.
4. An ERG split between Kemi/Liz would be much more preferable than Liz absorbing Cruella’s votes. In the next round keeping second place is going to be very important psychologically.
Honestly though I am hopeful that Tory MPs realise over the weekend that a final 2 without Penny in it risks PM Truss under the influence of the ERG, and that is a situation they have to avoid at all costs.
No, a final two with Truss in it is what risks Truss winning.
I hope the MPs can somehow freeze Rishi out. Truss vs Mordaunt would be great news... for my book
It’s definitely not impossible.
He’s 19 short. People are assuming he can pick those up from the TT campaign but let’s say the lions share goes to PM, he is then relying on some Kemi and Suella switchers in the same way as Penny is.
In the meantime let’s say he has some poor debates and some more sub-optimal polling lands over the weekend.
Do a few MPs get nervous? Maybe start looking for a different horse?
Liz v Penny appears to me to be a perfectly possible end result. A bit of a shocker, but it wouldn’t take much to happen.
Not much of a shocker. Rishi is 1/3 to make the final two, so 3/1 to miss out, or a 25 per cent chance in new money.
I’m at my mate’s where I’ve been helping with gardening again (I’ve been here pretty much every weekend since I got home from my holiday in April) and I realised I hadn’t delighted you all with a report on my progress for a while
The potatoes and onions have grown well and are now being eaten; there should be enough to last until at least the end of September. We’ve also got fifteen tomato plants that have all got their first fruit nearly ready, thirty pea plants that we’ve had a load of mange tout from and some peas nearly there, three kinds of courgette (two each of normal, yellow and “8-ball”), about a hundred spring onions, and ten runner beans. We’ve also got various salad leaves, a couple of cucumbers and a few kinds of squash/pumpkin that I didn’t bother getting pictures of.
I’d suggest MorrisDancing if anyone wants to reply to me to avoid repeating the photos!
Does anyone who isn't a supporter of Kemi Badenoch see any plausible way she wins this contest?
Truss implodes during the debates and her backers switch to Kemi. Or Kemi takes the Mrs Thatcher route of being elected by mistake if enough people use her as a protest or message vote.
Is Kemi the new Nigel Farage? A charismatic and persuasive speaker with firm opinions about things they know nothing about.
Thinking longer term about temperature in buildings: For some years I have argued that it would make economic sense -- in some buildings and some climates -- to have roofs that became reflective in hot weather, and absorbent in cold weather. I can think of several ways to do that, but have never tried to go beyond the basic concept because I don't have the technical knowledge to explore them, and don't want to take months out of my retirement to acquire it.
But if you do, feel free to use this "chameleon roof" idea.
I suspect (no calculations) that using solar roof tiles to power a reversible heat pump would be more effective.
These are actually a thing now although they aren't cheap.
Comments
They're the same issue.
But no mention in Wiki, though some other stuff of, erm, interest, such as the fact that 'Taylor had previously been labelled an "old racist dinosaur" by Piers Morgan', which I thought was particularly unkind, and 'During the Euro 2021 football competition, Taylor posted remarks on Twitter criticising the Spain national football team for not singing their national anthem at the start of football matches. Commentators responded by pointing out that the Spanish national anthem does not, in fact, have any lyrics.[29]'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Taylor,_Baron_Kilclooney
Truss is untrusted. She bombed. She is already out mate.
PM is PM because the polls of voters, Tory members and focus groups of working class voters on red wall all prefer her to both Sunak and Starmer, there is no stopping that sort of momentum.
I know all this because I told I so.
A fair amount of the Braverman vote probably goes to Badenoch then to Truss, rather than to Truss directly in the next round too.
Another issue AIUI is the prior marriage(s). It's not possible to marry as a divorcee in a RC church without, de facto and perhaps de jure, wirting off the earlier marriages as invalid, which means signing up to RC doctrine.
They should also be able to divorce whoever they like, which is a sticking point.
More likely IMHO is the ERG don’t follow Baker, Braverman and Francois to Truss, and Braverman’s backers instead heavily break for Kemi. You end up with Truss-Kemi in the mid-high 60s apiece, so close to each other that it gives Badenoch the momentum to push above Truss in the next round as the right desert her and see she can’t win.
Plausible with a barnstorming set of debate performances from Kemi and a car crash from Liz, which must at least be possible.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20281769.scotrail-confirms-date-return-normal-timetable---expect/?ref=ebbn
But it really was monumentally awful. I find it so much harder to leave the house at all now. And I was lucky in where I spent my lockdowns and with whom. I don't think it does to underestimate the sacrifice made.
And then there really should be a quid pro quo for such sacrifices, given the age profile of who the disease killed. But Max is right. Not only did the young give up their freedom to save the old, they're now being expected to pay for the privilege.
I don't go as far as Max and day that I'd kill all the old if I had my time in the pandemic over again. But I can't disagree that the old are talking the piss.
She certainly has little to lose at this stage, should go all-in with lots of interviews and hustings.
"Oof. Wrong to leave EU now 53%, a new high, right to leave 35%, a new low. Meanwhile the Tory leadership candidates compete to show their Brexit purity.
The Brexit boat is close to capsizing. The point is rapidly approaching where the consensus is that Brexit is a mistake to be mitigated. The politicians are well behind this curve."
I think he is right.
The ideal place to be to exert maximum influence is to back the fourth placed candidate.
I gave my numbers earlier. I'm not assuming that all Badenoch votes pile on Truss, if you did then she'd come first by a landslide.
I estimated 60% of Badenoch and Braverman's votes transfer to Truss, and 60% of Tugendhat's to Mordaunt. With Sunak getting 30% of everyone's.
That's just a finger in the air guesstimate but that leaves Mordaunt languishing in third by just a few votes.
But she could come first, second or third depending upon how things play out. Nothing is certain.
It's amusing that her odds have stayed pretty much the same (barring a brief leap out to 38 or so) through the rounds.
Cynical rumour, but he's one person Machiavellian enough that it might actually be true!
Prob 7-8% chance at best.
As an aside, we were blooming lucky during this pandemic in one regard: it did not affect the young as much. Imagine how much more hideous it would have been if the ambulances had been filled with people under 18, rather than those over 50.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.6% in the three months to the end of June from the previous quarter.
Me
The problem when the mini thread goes wrong (the last block quote doesn’t work) it sneaks other people words into your bit, probably why so many deleted posts below - the weak dollar bit not my line.
But RCS did post stuff the other day convincing me the crisis could ease quite quickly. Indeed, that was the original prediction before it came, up sharply down sharply wasn’t it?
Related to Penny as our new PM, voters will see her come into power and inflation fall, cost of living under control, and she is sure to get all the credit to increase her popularity with the electorate ahead of the general election, isn’t she?
The bottleneck will soon be LNG tankers. Invest in South Korean shipyard stocks - they will be working 3 shifts.
Truss is like a bad actress in a bad drive in movie. Even if she takes her clothes off it won’t redeem the time invested in her.
Meanwhile Penny is UKs next PM, this was decided days ago. It’s all over as a contest except the formalities.
The media and the country at large have chosen Penny to replace Boris. It was all over days ago as a live contest.
Your bunch of
wankersanti-vaxxers...https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
I will never tell you what to do because it isn't my place but counselling was a massive help for me, have you looked into this at all?
1. Carrie's Catholic, and their son Wilfrid was baptised a Catholic.
2. Under Catholic doctrine, Johnson never became Anglican. He just dallied with a heretical religion in his youth - a sin, but not an act of self-excommunication.
3. So there'd be no novelty about Penny being PM and a Catholic. Nor would there be any constitutional issues: it'd just raise the kind of admin complications that not having one of those written constitution nonsenses makes it a doddle to handle. Anglican episcopal nominations just get made by a tame official and passed on to Buckingham and Lambeth Palaces.
Kilclooney's just another trouble-making Ulster Unionist spouting anything he can dream up to rubbish Papes. His Wiki entry is an extraordinary list of pig-ignorance and gratuitously offensive remarks against anyone he thinks might not share his views.
Penny Mordaunt tells Beth Rigby she believes cis-women have the right to exclude trans-women from single-sex spaces
Given how lacklustre the numbers for Sunak and Truss have both been, and the early failure of other Cabinet contenders like Javid and Zahawi, I think the chances of a Truss/Sunak final two must be very slim. It will be Mordaunt vs another in my view, unless the debates shake things up
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62138545
I fear expressing my views on them might get me a permaban...
FDA clears way for an AI stethoscope to detect heart disease
Algorithm proves better than primary care doctors at recognizing signs of heart trouble
https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/14/us_fda_approves_first_ai/
The report itself says it was commissioned by NHS England, which I suppose is what gives wiggle room about who was "really behind it."
Or outlier of course.
The public want to know about CoL, they are fed up with Brexit and they think in hindsight it was a mistake.
So the Tory leadership contest focusses on trans people and how great Brexit is.
Anyone getting 2005 "are you thinking what we're thinking" vibes?
She also announces a 'temporary moratorium' on the green energy levy on energy bills - she says that would save people £153 a year
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1547922864380133376
Oh look the magic money tree is back, if Labour announced this they would be rightly ripped to shreds.
Hence why if the ERG and their love in with Frosty get their way and choose a candidate based on their “purist” Brexit agenda, they will be doomed at the next election
rethought its position on Self ID
And go fuck yourself for a meaningless nitpick over a shorthand. Especially a nitpick that tries to associate me with antisemitism.
The potatoes and onions have grown well and are now being eaten; there should be enough to last until at least the end of September. We’ve also got fifteen tomato plants that have all got their first fruit nearly ready, thirty pea plants that we’ve had a load of mange tout from and some peas nearly there, three kinds of courgette (two each of normal, yellow and “8-ball”), about a hundred spring onions, and ten runner beans. We’ve also got various salad leaves, a couple of cucumbers and a few kinds of squash/pumpkin that I didn’t bother getting pictures of.
I’d suggest MorrisDancing if anyone wants to reply to me to avoid repeating the photos!
Is Kemi the new Nigel Farage? A charismatic and persuasive speaker with firm opinions about things they know nothing about.
These are actually a thing now although they aren't cheap.