Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect – politicalbetting.com

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Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect – politicalbetting.com

According to the Times Johnson is trying to stop Sunak from replacing him and is telling those who have been defeated in the race to support anybody else. This is from the report:

Read the full story here

tlg86

First

eristdoof

It probably won't make any difference. Someone who takes Mr Johnson's advice and votes anyone but Sunak, would probably have voted anyone but Sunak anyway.

Benpointer

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

El_Capitano

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

DavidL

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

StuartDickson

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

MJW

Does kind of make me want Sunak to win now, as it is a stain on the country this appalling human being has had major influence over politics. The idea he gets to cast a shadow over who should succeed him is dismal. Though if he wants to torpedo the Tory Party for the next decade while working out his transparently psychopathic tendencies, I'm quite relaxed about that as it means we might actually get a government worthy of the name rather than the parade of clowns we've had over the last decade.

eristdoof

Jonathan said:

Apparently the hot weather is due to Aliens using AI

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch

With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.

I think you’re wrong. Politics is about timing. There would have been moments when a Mourdaunt premiership would have been something to worry about, but now is not that moment. [snip]

Isn't a Mordaunt Moment something you find in a box of Milk Tray?

MarqueeMark

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

Who?

HYUFD

In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

StuartDickson

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Eabhal said:

Eabhal said:

The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.

Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.

Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.

Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.

I was in Paris at the height of the 2003 heatwave. It was bloody hot, but we still managed our site seeing. The glass pyramid at the Louvre was like a greenhouse in full sun, but the sprinklers on in the green areas around the city were wonderful for the kids.

Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.

If it gets near 40C in London (quite likely now) I reckon we’ll see people jumping in the Thames. Which can be properly dangerous

Go on Boris. You love leading folk into hairbrained endeavours.

DavidL

El_Capitano said:

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

Truss.

Slackbladder

El_Capitano said:

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

Truss. Shes supported by JRM and Dorries and the ERG.

Andy_JS

It was 38.5C in August 2003.

Barnesian

I think it's going to be close.

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

Try getting on yer bike in a skirt.

Benpointer

El_Capitano said:

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

I prefer the @MikeL (I think it was) theory: Johnson engineers Truss into PM, Truss is a disaster, VoNC in September 2023, Johnson comes riding over the hill on a white charger to save the Tories.

So ridiculous it might just play out.

Genuine thought - I don't think Johnson has given up on politics yet.

StuartDickson

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

An all-female shortlist? Very un-Tory.

Benpointer

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

Barnesian

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

You can try different percentages here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

Edit: I've just given it editing privilege.

Leon

Benpointer said:

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England

algarkirk

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

DavidL

StuartDickson said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

An all-female shortlist? Very un-Tory.

Not really. For PMs they have gone Maggie, Major, Cameron, May, Boris then ? Another female PM is due.

StuartDickson

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch

With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
I think your analysis is spot on.

Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.

Morris_Dancer

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Leon

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

You can try different percentages here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

Edit: I've just given it editing privilege.

Any predictions are a gamble, given that we have debates - starting tonight - which could change everything

HYUFD

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

So Rishi is knocked out in the final MPs ballot if that is correct like Portillo 2001, it looks plausible.

Slackbladder

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.

numbertwelve

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

Penny really needs a good chunk of those TT transfers. I suspect she gets them due to candidate profile etc but a lot of these things are things we can’t predict ie personal relationships and the like so it’s very hard to forecast.

Benpointer

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England

The full quote was:

"43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

No reference, explicit or otherwise, to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

So Rishi is knocked out in the final MPs ballot if that is correct like Portillo 2001, it looks plausible.

I have a little money riding on that already, just in case

Barnesian

Leon said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

You can try different percentages here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

Edit: I've just given it editing privilege.

Any predictions are a gamble, given that we have debates - starting tonight - which could change everything

Yes they are a gamble! That's why there is a spread of odds.

DavidL

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch

With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.

I think your analysis is spot on.

Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.

I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England

The full quote was:

"43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

No reference to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.

It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk

Benpointer

Slackbladder said:

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.

May's still there.

Eabhal

@Carnyx FPT I meant rioting in England, like 2011. We don't really do that in Scotland, though Kelvingrove can be fun during Royal Weddings.

Benpointer

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England

The full quote was:

"43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

No reference to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.

It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk

Where is the explicit reference in your post?

There was no blockquote, no link, no paste of that chart.

IshmaelZ

Benpointer said:

Slackbladder said:

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.

May's still there.

Bear in mind he has still got the Privileges committee on his ass. A suspension and lost recall election would be so humiliating he might jump in advance of that.

Slackbladder

Benpointer said:

Slackbladder said:

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.

May's still there.

May is a very different person to Johnson. She clearly enjoys being an MP. Boris wants power and fame and money. Being a backbencher doesn't give you any of those things.

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

"We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?

Benpointer

IshmaelZ said:

Benpointer said:

Slackbladder said:

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.

If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.

May's still there.

Bear in mind he has still got the Privileges committee on his ass. A suspension and lost recall election would be so humiliating he might jump in advance of that.

Good points

Stocky

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

NickPalmer

Benpointer said:

El_Capitano said:

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

I prefer the @MikeL (I think it was) theory: Johnson engineers Truss into PM, Truss is a disaster, VoNC in September 2023, Johnson comes riding over the hill on a white charger to save the Tories.

So ridiculous it might just play out.

Genuine thought - I don't think Johnson has given up on politics yet.

I think the last sentence is correct. One of his quite attractive qualities is that he's resilient, almost Kiplingesque ("treat triumph and disaster just the same"). I can't imagine him settling by the fire and spending his days watching daytime TV. That's why I suggested he might have another try for London Mayor, but being a backbench rebel might amuse him too.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch

With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.

I think your analysis is spot on.

Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.

I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining

Less than 200 posts to go to the 100k @HYUFD - I'll almost certainly miss the 100,000th but well done in advance!

Edit: I've bollocksed up blockquote and don't have time to sort it out, so I've also pinched your comment - sorry!

MJW

HYUFD said:

In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

The idea Sunak is the Heseltine shows how far the party has gone down the rabbithole. Heseltine, and Clarke after him lost as were open pro-Europeans in a party that isn't. Which is fine. A leader can't be that at odds with their party on such a big issue, so they generally pre-Brexit selected Eurosceptic leaders who none-the-less thought it was a bad idea to leave altogether rather than gripe from within. The fact Sunak, an actual dyed-in -the-wool Brexiteer who believes it can be made a success of rather than suffered, is apparently the moderate unloved by the party, shows quit what a bonkers and ludicrous situation the Conservative Party is in.

DavidL

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

"We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?

The various points made by various contributors yesterday. I freely admit that she was not on my radar until the end of last week. Reversing ferret on transgender issues having won the Pink News Parliamentarian of the year was one of the stand outs IIRC. And an unfortunate change at that, from my perspective.

Big_G_NorthWales

Good morning

The Mail today is conducting a comprehensive hatchet job on Mordaunt and has clearly not given up on Johnson who in their poll tops the list of best for PM

This is a defining moment for today's conservative party, and hopefully the vast majority of their mps recognise the damage to their prospects that would follow if they entertain the ERG and pro Johnson wing and ensure Mordaunt at least is put to the membership

LostPassword

With respect to the heat wave, it's worth recalling that in Canada last summer they broke their national temperature record by 4.6C. An equivalent for the UK would see a new record of 43.3C.

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps

BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places

Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.

Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours

And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record

I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%

How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?

Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.

Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.

Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.

You have a go

What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of

1. The all time UK high temp record going

2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C

50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.

We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%

So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England

The full quote was:

"43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

No reference to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.

It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk

Where is the explicit reference in your post?

There was no blockquote, no link, no paste of that chart.

Are you just a fucking moron? Or actually the full and complete fucking moron?

My comment directly preceding that was THIS:



****
If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

These are lethal temperatures and many will die




***

So that’s what I was referring to in my very next comment, you pitiful dung-eater

Barnesian

There are only three realistic outcomes:

Sunak/Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. She is the overwhelming favourite of the Tory membership.
Truss/ Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. As above.
Sunak/Truss - Sunak is PM. Membership upset with Truss for edging out Mordaunt, don't want continuity Boris, and don't see Truss as an election winner.

In no case is Truss PM - unfortunately for the opposition and fortunately for the country.

HYUFD

MJW said:

HYUFD said:

In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

The idea Sunak is the Heseltine shows how far the party has gone down the rabbithole. Heseltine, and Clarke after him lost as were open pro-Europeans in a party that isn't. Which is fine. A leader can't be that at odds with their party on such a big issue, so they generally pre-Brexit selected Eurosceptic leaders who none-the-less thought it was a bad idea to leave altogether rather than gripe from within. The fact Sunak, an actual dyed-in -the-wool Brexiteer who believes it can be made a success of rather than suffered, is apparently the moderate unloved by the party, shows quit what a bonkers and ludicrous situation the Conservative Party is in.

Tugendhat is ideologically closer to Heseltine, Sunak to Portillo but the point was the Boris camp is seeking to stop Sunak as Thatcher tried to stop Heseltine in 1990. Sunak maybe heading for defeat like Heseltine in 1990 or even knock out like Portillo 2001

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

"We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?

The various points made by various contributors yesterday. I freely admit that she was not on my radar until the end of last week. Reversing ferret on transgender issues having won the Pink News Parliamentarian of the year was one of the stand outs IIRC. And an unfortunate change at that, from my perspective.

Did she 'reverse ferret' ? What exactly did she say before and after this 'reverse ferret'?

People are freely calling PM a liar on here, but when asked, no-one seems to be able to point out to *how* she is lying, aside from the fact others claim she is. Perhaps she is, but it would be good to see the evidence - and also whether the other candidates are being held up to the same standards.

Leon

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

squareroot2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

The Mail today is conducting a comprehensive hatchet job on Mordaunt and has clearly not given up on Johnson who in their poll tops the list of best for PM

This is a defining moment for today's conservative party, and hopefully the vast majority of their mps recognise the damage to their prospects that would follow if they entertain the ERG and pro Johnson wing and ensure Mordaunt at least is put to the membership

The Mail is a malign influence on our culture.

squareroot2

squareroot2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

The Mail today is conducting a comprehensive hatchet job on Mordaunt and has clearly not given up on Johnson who in their poll tops the list of best for PM

This is a defining moment for today's conservative party, and hopefully the vast majority of their mps recognise the damage to their prospects that would follow if they entertain the ERG and pro Johnson wing and ensure Mordaunt at least is put to the membership

The Mail is a malign influence on our culture.

Mind you... if the Mail doesn't like her, she us the one to vote for.

BartholomewRoberts

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.

OldKingCole

Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

numbertwelve

Barnesian said:

There are only three realistic outcomes:

Sunak/Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. She is the overwhelming favourite of the Tory membership.
Truss/ Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. As above.
Sunak/Truss - Sunak is PM. Membership upset with Truss for edging out Mordaunt, don't want continuity Boris, and don't see Truss as an election winner.

In no case is Truss PM - unfortunately for the opposition and fortunately for the country.

I wish I could be convinced of this but I am 99% certain Truss beats Sunak in a match up.

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

In August 2003 temperature in the UK reached 38.5 degrees C. At the time I was on my coastal walk, but as I was in the very north of Scotland the weather was much cooler - in fact from memory it was perfect walking weather.

Another coastal walker was much further south, and he was starting his walk at three or four in the morning each day to avoid the heat, finishing well before midday. I got the impression he did not enjoy himself.

IanB2

NickPalmer said:

Benpointer said:

El_Capitano said:

So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

I prefer the @MikeL (I think it was) theory: Johnson engineers Truss into PM, Truss is a disaster, VoNC in September 2023, Johnson comes riding over the hill on a white charger to save the Tories.

So ridiculous it might just play out.

Genuine thought - I don't think Johnson has given up on politics yet.

I think the last sentence is correct. One of his quite attractive qualities is that he's resilient, almost Kiplingesque ("treat triumph and disaster just the same"). I can't imagine him settling by the fire and spending his days watching daytime TV. That's why I suggested he might have another try for London Mayor, but being a backbench rebel might amuse him too.

There is no way London would vote for him again. His electoral magic is gone, and London is in any case moving further away from the Tories.

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

Leon

Let’s hope Mordaunt trounces Truss tonight

DecrepiterJohnL

Betfair next PM

2.2 Penny Mordaunt 45%
3.55 Liz Truss 28%
4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
28 Kemi Badenoch
170 Tom Tugendhat
170 Dominic Raab

Betfair to reach the final two (note Sunak shortest but only third best for next pm)

1.3 Rishi Sunak 77%
1.37 Penny Mordaunt 73%
2.26 Liz Truss 44%
15 Kemi Badenoch 7%
60 Tom Tugendhat

Keystone

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.

tlg86

LostPassword said:

With respect to the heat wave, it's worth recalling that in Canada last summer they broke their national temperature record by 4.6C. An equivalent for the UK would see a new record of 43.3C.

What surprised me about that was that Canada hadn't recorded those sorts of temperatures before. It's part of a continental landmass, so I'd have thought it would have got very hot at times.

geoffw

Penny's lack of experience is a concern. She's probably aware that she'll need a Willie.

Leon

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

MarqueeMark

Truss: all the worst bits of the Johnson government without anything positive to add.

And not a party I would be supporting.

londonpubman

OldKingCole said:

Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

Absolutely, Boris will resign his seat in the autumn and there will be a by election by the end of the year.

Pulpstar

Final 2 prices

RS 1.3 / 1.36 73.5% - 76.9%
PM 1.37 / 1.4 71.4% - 73%
LT 2.26/2.38 42.0% - 44.2%

Winner prices (Next Con)

RS 4.7
PM 2.16
LT 3.5

Implied probability at members stage

RS 27.7% / 28.9%
PM 63.4% / 64.8%
LT 64.6% / 68%

Mordaunt has to be way more than a 63% chance against Sunak (And at least that with Truss) with the members surely ?

DougSeal

In terms of charisma, Truss makes Starmer look like Don Draper.

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

Truss: all the worst bits of the Johnson government without anything positive to add.

And not a party I would be supporting.

Liz Truss, the only person who would become smarter after a lobotomy.

Wulfrun_Phil

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

As a golfer, I endorse that entirely. And remember that the temperatures quoted in weather forecasts are only those in the shade.

IshmaelZ

OldKingCole said:

Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

Never mind bored, he needs to get out from under committees enquiring into lies and Italy trips and peerages and Kabul asap.

IshmaelZ

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.

Sorry, you are telling us what we should wear as a health precaution, despite hot summers having become endemic? Do you want to live forever?

EPG

Why would Johnson quit as MP? He must have a decent chance in the next leadership election.

HYUFD

Keystone said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.

Raab has to hold his seat first

No_Offence_Alan

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

"We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?

The business about the veto over Turkey joining the EU.

BartholomewRoberts

IshmaelZ said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.

Sorry, you are telling us what we should wear as a health precaution, despite hot summers having become endemic? Do you want to live forever?

No, I'm giving friendly advice. Its entirely up to you what you choose to wear.

There's nothing wrong with giving advice, when you expect that advice to be taken that's where we have a problem.

DecrepiterJohnL

Pulpstar said:

Final 2 prices

RS 1.3 / 1.36 73.5% - 76.9%
PM 1.37 / 1.4 71.4% - 73%
LT 2.26/2.38 42.0% - 44.2%

Winner prices (Next Con)

RS 4.7
PM 2.16
LT 3.5

Implied probability at members stage

RS 27.7% / 28.9%
PM 63.4% / 64.8%
LT 64.6% / 68%

Mordaunt has to be way more than a 63% chance against Sunak (And at least that with Truss) with the members surely ?

iirc Opinium had Rishi beating Penny in a head-to-head but everyone remembers the other way round on Yougov.

E2A link to Opinium
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/con-members-polling-09072022/

wooliedyed

Techne poll thus morning with a partial reversion of the defenestration/chaos slump. Tories i suspect helped by 24/7 coverage this week

Westminster voting intention:

LAB 40% (-1)
CON 31% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-)

via @techneUK, 14 Jul
https://t.co/5ksWvcS8Xq

Leon

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C

numbertwelve

Keystone said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.

It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.

Wulfrun_Phil

Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
"....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

The remaining % is don't knows.

Fishing

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.

It depends on the humidity. 104 in dry heat is endurable. 104 in 100% humidity is life-threatening even for healthy people.

OldKingCole

IshmaelZ said:

OldKingCole said:

Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

Never mind bored, he needs to get out from under committees enquiring into lies and Italy trips and peerages and Kabul asap.

He can still be dragged in front of the committee even if he's no longer a Member! And committees have quite considerable powers to exact penalties!

IshmaelZ

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Pulpstar said:

Final 2 prices

RS 1.3 / 1.36 73.5% - 76.9%
PM 1.37 / 1.4 71.4% - 73%
LT 2.26/2.38 42.0% - 44.2%

Winner prices (Next Con)

RS 4.7
PM 2.16
LT 3.5

Implied probability at members stage

RS 27.7% / 28.9%
PM 63.4% / 64.8%
LT 64.6% / 68%

Mordaunt has to be way more than a 63% chance against Sunak (And at least that with Truss) with the members surely ?

iirc Opinium had Rishi beating Penny in a head-to-head but everyone remembers the other way round on Yougov.

E2A link to Opinium
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/con-members-polling-09072022/

Times voodoo poll has Rishi 43% to PM 30%

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/91101146-03ba-11ed-aa15-45d37b45dc0d?shareToken=712bc9ac92f42b9a57abeb4625a1b40b

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C

OK, I didn't realise that Florida was as moderate as that, I should have said Australians then.

I grew up in Melbourne, Vic, close to a golf course and we'd get 40C+ temperatures most summers. The golf course would be very popular and not shut down in that temperature.

Those in Queensland and NSW would get those temperatures even more often.

numbertwelve

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
"....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

The remaining % is don't knows.

Those are interesting in the sense that they don’t really give anyone a massive boost.

RandallFlagg

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.

Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.

The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.

The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.

That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.

There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.

I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.

I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch

With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.

"I think your analysis is spot on.

Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins."

Interesting that you think Badenoch is less electable than Truss. I think there's 80% chance Badenoch would be a flop and give Labour a working majority, but I don't think it's impossible she could turn out to be surprisingly popular.
Cosplay Thatcher, on the other hand, I'm near certain will be a disaster.

IshmaelZ

OldKingCole said:

IshmaelZ said:

OldKingCole said:

Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

Never mind bored, he needs to get out from under committees enquiring into lies and Italy trips and peerages and Kabul asap.

He can still be dragged in front of the committee even if he's no longer a Member! And committees have quite considerable powers to exact penalties!

He can but I am pretty sure hes has more wiggle room as xMP than MP.

Leon

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.

You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

That’s…..

….

…..,,,

… brave

Sounds glorious.

Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

You don’t get out much, do you?

40C is not golfing weather

I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.

It depends on the humidity. 104 in dry heat is endurable. 104 in 100% humidity is life-threatening even for healthy people.

And that’s endurable, not enjoyable

At ~40C the sensible instinct of 97% of humanity will be: head to the shade, have a cold shower, drink lots of water, find aircon, don’t do anything too energetic

Go out onto a sun-crushed golf course to vigorously thwack a ball around? Er, no

JosiasJessop

No_Offence_Alan said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.

"We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?

The business about the veto over Turkey joining the EU.

Thanks; I missed that. Do you mean the things she said in 2016?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-eu-a7041956.html

From memory, many people on here seemed to agree with her...

Wulfrun_Phil

BartholomewRoberts said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.

Braverman has 27 currently, not 32

TheScreamingEagles

On this day in 1988, Die Hard starring Bruce Willis was released.

I mean you don't release a Christmas film in the middle of summer do you? DO YOU?

BartholomewRoberts

Wulfrun_Phil said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Barnesian said:

I think it's going to be close.

Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.

Braverman has 27 currently, not 32

I didn't spot that, I only editted the percentages not the numbers. The original I replied to had 32 for Braverman too it seems.

Doesn't change the outcome. On my percentages Mordaunt is narrowly knocked out, though it does narrow the gap.

MrEd

numbertwelve said:

Keystone said:

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.

It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.

Here's a thought. Do the Remainers in the party gang up to eliminate Truss before she gets to the final three?

She's 15 votes ahead of Badenoch which is large but not huge and a smaller gap than between Truss and Mordaunt.

If you are worried the ERG will propel her through, maybe better to knock her out now.

Wulfrun_Phil

numbertwelve said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
"....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

The remaining % is don't knows.

Those are interesting in the sense that they don’t really give anyone a massive boost.

That was my immediate reaction too.