Swamp (evaporative) coolers also good, which you can rig up with box fan & wet towel (use cold water!)
Correct where you live, but virtually useless here due to our much higher humidity. Swamp coolers rely on it being desert dry. Doesn't stop argos etc selling them though.
Since until recently we lived darn sarf we have several air conditioning units that have been sitting in our shed. We have pledged the majority of them to family members for Monday/Tuesday though as we reckon so long as our bedroom is fine the rest we can cope with so not especially bothered about this heat wave on a personal level, but am deeply concerned about what this sort of thing means for the country - it's becoming unliveable down in the south east.
Anyway my betting position on the next PM market - green on everyone since have been playing this since Boris became PM and with all the volatility we've had only an imbecile could have failed to make money (I see stuff like laying Nigel Farage at 38 in my history) - but my current postion is essentially:
1. Piled onto Badenoch. I cannot justify this rationally. It's pure gut feel and a 'vanity bet' where I'm spending a few hundred quid of my green which I cannot recommend copying. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing. 2. Having previously backed the shit out of her, laid the shit out of Penny as a trading bet. Rather pleased I have a local maximum backing price on her of 2.86 from an order I left in but sadly it's only £28 of the order. Still, some chance I can get some more back. A quick trading position and I will probably go neutral soon. 3. Suank is value at these odds. I'm currently short him from much lower and trading out of the position. Once I've done that I may back him too 4. Truss beats Sunak and loses to Penny. Her price has the feel of market manipulation. Avoiding touching. 5. TT/Raab/Starmer - not much point in doing anything.
In Italy, with temps at 36, no one was outside and every shutter was closed.
Also interesting to hear the advice about keeping south facing windows closed - would never occur to me that having them open would increase temperatures.
Yes - keep them closed and close curtains. The room never gets warm and so you have a cool dark room at the end of the day.
"Never gets warm?" This is an exaggeration to put it mildly, unless perhaps you live in a very old stone cottage.
The modern British home is custom built to trap heat, because they're all constructed to deal with wet, chilly days not roasting hot ones. Hardly any of them have been built with such conditions in mind.
It's really all about damage limitation: trying to make the interior of one's home hot rather than actually lethal.
Trapping heat is identical to trapping cool. Keep all your windows and door shut, and a well insulated house will do a fine job of keeping the heat out.
The average human generates about 100W of heat continuously. Your fridge will also dump heat into your house, as will, most obviously, any cooking that you do, or hot water that you use for washing dishes, or yourself. If you can't lose this heat to the outside world, then your house will warm up over time.
Swamp (evaporative) coolers also good, which you can rig up with box fan & wet towel (use cold water!)
Correct where you live, but virtually useless here due to our much higher humidity. Swamp coolers rely on it being desert dry. Doesn't stop argos etc selling them though.
Since until recently we lived darn sarf we have several air conditioning units that have been sitting in our shed. We have pledged the majority of them to family members for Monday/Tuesday though as we reckon so long as our bedroom is fine the rest we can cope with so not especially bothered about this heat wave on a personal level, but am deeply concerned about what this sort of thing means for the country - it's becoming unliveable down in the south east.
Anyway my betting position on the next PM market - green on everyone since have been playing this since Boris became PM and with all the volatility we've had only an imbecile could have failed to make money (I see stuff like laying Nigel Farage at 38 in my history) - but my current postion is essentially:
1. Piled onto Badenoch. I cannot justify this rationally. It's pure gut feel and a 'vanity bet' where I'm spending a few hundred quid of my green which I cannot recommend copying. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing. 2. Having previously backed the shit out of her, laid the shit out of Penny as a trading bet. Rather pleased I have a local maximum backing price on her of 2.86 from an order I left in but sadly it's only £28 of the order. Still, some chance I can get some more back. A quick trading position and I will probably go neutral soon. 3. Suank is value at these odds. I'm currently short him from much lower and trading out of the position. Once I've done that I may back him too 4. Truss beats Sunak and loses to Penny. Her price has the feel of market manipulation. Avoiding touching. 5. TT/Raab/Starmer - not much point in doing anything.
You have a point re: humidity, though Western WA is NOT Arizona or even Eastern WA, even when we're getting kissed with a blast of their air.
As for cooler, my cube job I got a few summers ago puts out a good deal of COLD air in a SMALL area, say about 9-10 cubic feet. Won't cool a room but will help you stop sweating in bed (for a bit) and get to sleep.
EDIT - Think you are correct with respect to the homemade kind of swamp cooler in higher humidity. Just isn't cool enough that situation.
Where I'm typing this from right now, the floor is directly over earth. Which creates a cooling effect, I can feel the cooler air on my legs under the table. Very nice on a warm let alone hot day.
My WeatherPro app (powered by German met models I think) now showing 40C for London on Tuesday
Absolutely unprecedented
Some apps show measured temp, some show “feels like”. For records, the measured temp is important, for the human experience, feels-like is.
Which is your data?
(I have booked a hotel for the duration.)
It will be actual measured temperature.
One thing noticeable about this heat is that unlike many of our normal hot days in summer, it will not be humid. Humidity might be as low as 20%, so it will feel more like opening an oven than sitting in a sauna. A wet t-shirt will dry very quickly but will also be very effective at cooling.
I rather extravagantly bought a portable air conditioner a week ago to make sure my elderly dad doesn't fry, so I'll be sitting in one noisy room for the worst of it.
Might have to take a t-shirt out the freezer before going out anywhere.
This portable air conditioner. Where and how does it vent the hot air? I ask in case you've made things worse by needing an open window.
That's a thought. If you must drive, maybe check the a/c is on recirculated air, rather than pulling in hot air from outside, although that will make it worse for Covid transmission!
Vent through the window, yes. I made a cardboard template to plug the gap and cut a hole in it. Not rocket science!
They are pretty noisy though - mainly due to the compressor. Not something you'd normally want in a room, particularly as you have to keep the door shut. I suspect the best use of one would be to cool a bedroom down before going to bed.
Was thinking it might be a bit excessive but dare I suggest that some models are suggesting a reload the following weekend...
Swamp (evaporative) coolers also good, which you can rig up with box fan & wet towel (use cold water!)
Correct where you live, but virtually useless here due to our much higher humidity. Swamp coolers rely on it being desert dry. Doesn't stop argos etc selling them though.
Since until recently we lived darn sarf we have several air conditioning units that have been sitting in our shed. We have pledged the majority of them to family members for Monday/Tuesday though as we reckon so long as our bedroom is fine the rest we can cope with so not especially bothered about this heat wave on a personal level, but am deeply concerned about what this sort of thing means for the country - it's becoming unliveable down in the south east.
Anyway my betting position on the next PM market - green on everyone since have been playing this since Boris became PM and with all the volatility we've had only an imbecile could have failed to make money (I see stuff like laying Nigel Farage at 38 in my history) - but my current postion is essentially:
1. Piled onto Badenoch. I cannot justify this rationally. It's pure gut feel and a 'vanity bet' where I'm spending a few hundred quid of my green which I cannot recommend copying. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing. 2. Having previously backed the shit out of her, laid the shit out of Penny as a trading bet. Rather pleased I have a local maximum backing price on her of 2.86 from an order I left in but sadly it's only £28 of the order. Still, some chance I can get some more back. A quick trading position and I will probably go neutral soon. 3. Suank is value at these odds. I'm currently short him from much lower and trading out of the position. Once I've done that I may back him too 4. Truss beats Sunak and loses to Penny. Her price has the feel of market manipulation. Avoiding touching. 5. TT/Raab/Starmer - not much point in doing anything.
“Piled onto Badenoch. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing.”
Is this man pulling the strings of the Badenoch Campaign?
And with the explosive ammo it’s being rumoured he is sitting on, can he actually pull it off?
Swamp (evaporative) coolers also good, which you can rig up with box fan & wet towel (use cold water!)
Correct where you live, but virtually useless here due to our much higher humidity. Swamp coolers rely on it being desert dry. Doesn't stop argos etc selling them though.
Since until recently we lived darn sarf we have several air conditioning units that have been sitting in our shed. We have pledged the majority of them to family members for Monday/Tuesday though as we reckon so long as our bedroom is fine the rest we can cope with so not especially bothered about this heat wave on a personal level, but am deeply concerned about what this sort of thing means for the country - it's becoming unliveable down in the south east.
Anyway my betting position on the next PM market - green on everyone since have been playing this since Boris became PM and with all the volatility we've had only an imbecile could have failed to make money (I see stuff like laying Nigel Farage at 38 in my history) - but my current postion is essentially:
1. Piled onto Badenoch. I cannot justify this rationally. It's pure gut feel and a 'vanity bet' where I'm spending a few hundred quid of my green which I cannot recommend copying. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing. 2. Having previously backed the shit out of her, laid the shit out of Penny as a trading bet. Rather pleased I have a local maximum backing price on her of 2.86 from an order I left in but sadly it's only £28 of the order. Still, some chance I can get some more back. A quick trading position and I will probably go neutral soon. 3. Suank is value at these odds. I'm currently short him from much lower and trading out of the position. Once I've done that I may back him too 4. Truss beats Sunak and loses to Penny. Her price has the feel of market manipulation. Avoiding touching. 5. TT/Raab/Starmer - not much point in doing anything.
“Piled onto Badenoch. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing.”
Is this man pulling the strings of the Badenoch Campaign?
And with the explosive ammo it’s being rumoured he is sitting on, can he actually pull it off?
Dunno. Is he pulling the strings? Is he sitting on explosive ammo? It may be worth remembering that Boris's downfall was of his own making and not because anyone was practising the dark arts, as Nadine Dorries might have it. (And it might be kinder just to type Cummings' name rather than post a photo because some people will be chewing through their mobile phone data.)
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Betfair's final two market agrees that Rishi is most likely to qualify for the runoff, along with one of the women, probably Penny Mordaunt. Look at the implied probability percentages on the right.
1.29 Rishi Sunak 78% 1.41 Penny Mordaunt 71% 2.12 Liz Truss 47% 14 Kemi Badenoch 7% 55 Tom Tugendhat
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Obviously there are the two debates before the next vote (possibly more if the heatwave means the vote is postponed) and we are already seeing attacks by camp followers and in the press.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Stood out for being bonkers, not good.
The demise of the ERG is something I look forward to.
Funny how the Tory leadership contest is going to reach boiling point on Monday and Tuesday when it's going to be 39 degrees in London.
Yes, the BBC just predicted 39C in London on Tuesday. That - tho they didn't mention it - is an all-time UK heat record
Have just noticed we are predicted 25 and 26 over Sunday to Tuesday on the Met Office site. So what you say? That's not much. But that is a serious upgrade on 24 hours ago. We.were set for 22 and 23 then. So. The heat seems to be firming up.
BBC/Meteo has us peaking at 28C on Monday, thanks to the sea breeze. But I see that central London is now forecast 37-38C for both Monday and Tuesday. Ouch.
In Italy, with temps at 36, no one was outside and every shutter was closed.
Also interesting to hear the advice about keeping south facing windows closed - would never occur to me that having them open would increase temperatures.
Yes - keep them closed and close curtains. The room never gets warm and so you have a cool dark room at the end of the day.
"Never gets warm?" This is an exaggeration to put it mildly, unless perhaps you live in a very old stone cottage.
The modern British home is custom built to trap heat, because they're all constructed to deal with wet, chilly days not roasting hot ones. Hardly any of them have been built with such conditions in mind.
It's really all about damage limitation: trying to make the interior of one's home hot rather than actually lethal.
Trapping heat is identical to trapping cool. Keep all your windows and door shut, and a well insulated house will do a fine job of keeping the heat out.
The average human generates about 100W of heat continuously. Your fridge will also dump heat into your house, as will, most obviously, any cooking that you do, or hot water that you use for washing dishes, or yourself. If you can't lose this heat to the outside world, then your house will warm up over time.
So the secret to having a cool house is to sit outside?
Anyhow, once the air temperature reaches normal body temperature - which it will next week - that ceases to apply.
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Stood out for being bonkers, not good.
The demise of the ERG is something I look forward to.
They need to move on from their obsession with finding new fronts in their war the EU. There are many other far more urgent problems in the world that need attention... China, Russia etc; not to mention to the assault on western liberalism from within. In the end even very successful political movements eventually become irrelevant.
I am seriously considering booking an airconned hotel room for two nights
Sunday-Tuesday are going to be intolerably hot to the point of UGH
Now you've mentioned this I'm thinking of doing the same thing. I'll be fine on Sunday as it's not so hot and I'll be at the coast but, from travelling back on Monday afternoon through to Tuesday night, where we live (near Cambridge) is going to be absolutely dreadful. Might be worth the expense to be spared most of the suffering.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
What happens if it is a tie between 2 second place candidates ?
It is going to be so close that this is not inconceivable.
It happened in 1997 (for last place) and they re-ran the round.
If it was still tied at that point I suspect they would draw lots.
Ah, you mean 2001, I think -- the two bottom placed candidates (Davis+Ancram) were tied. That is quick to fix.
If it is Rishi in a slight lead and Liz+Penny tied in the final round ballot, that is harder to fix.
Yes, sorry, 2001.
And I agree it would be harder but I don’t see they have many other choices. Unless they send all three forward because i don’t think (although I haven’t checked) the rules actually state there must be two, just that there must be ‘a selection’.
Has to be said, the Tory party rules on the leadership haven’t shown to best advantage in this contest.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
They're unhinged. Braverman "Stood out among all the others"!!
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
She's not 'talent' enough for you, Roger?
I found myself at a table next to 12 Russians last night who were having what looked like a party. About half were children. I wasn't sure of the protocol. Should I have demanded to be moved?
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
She's not 'talent' enough for you, Roger?
I found myself at a table next to 12 Russians last night who were having what looked like a party. About half were children. I wasn't sure of the protocol. Should I have demanded to be moved?
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
Mr. Tubbs, already had several days of terrible sleep (heat-related to start with, good old insomnia last few days). Three days of hot nights would be less than helpful...
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Possibly, though I would question: "Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss".
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
This is fairly interesting news if true, and it's a shame Dura_Ace is not around too pour his customary scorn onto it:
"Britain and Japan are close to an agreement to merge their next-generation Tempest and F-X fighter jet programmes, with the two countries aiming for a deal on a new joint project by year-end"
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
She's not 'talent' enough for you, Roger?
I found myself at a table next to 12 Russians last night who were having what looked like a party. About half were children. I wasn't sure of the protocol. Should I have demanded to be moved?
What an odd question.
I agree to anybody else it would be. But I couldn't help wondering 'What would Josias do now?' Surely not nothing! With the enemy in his sights would he just place his order and carry on eating?
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
As I commented below, they really are the Judean People's Front Suicide Squad.
In Italy, with temps at 36, no one was outside and every shutter was closed.
Also interesting to hear the advice about keeping south facing windows closed - would never occur to me that having them open would increase temperatures.
Yes - keep them closed and close curtains. The room never gets warm and so you have a cool dark room at the end of the day.
"Never gets warm?" This is an exaggeration to put it mildly, unless perhaps you live in a very old stone cottage.
The modern British home is custom built to trap heat, because they're all constructed to deal with wet, chilly days not roasting hot ones. Hardly any of them have been built with such conditions in mind.
It's really all about damage limitation: trying to make the interior of one's home hot rather than actually lethal.
Trapping heat is identical to trapping cool. Keep all your windows and door shut, and a well insulated house will do a fine job of keeping the heat out.
The average human generates about 100W of heat continuously. Your fridge will also dump heat into your house, as will, most obviously, any cooking that you do, or hot water that you use for washing dishes, or yourself. If you can't lose this heat to the outside world, then your house will warm up over time.
An excellent piece of work by Peter Oborne. That's how to do a polemic. If PM4PM had made her promotional video as interesting instead of that vacuous pseudo patriotic drivel the commentariat wouldn't now be thinking her an airhead.
She's not 'talent' enough for you, Roger?
I found myself at a table next to 12 Russians last night who were having what looked like a party. About half were children. I wasn't sure of the protocol. Should I have demanded to be moved?
What an odd question.
I agree to anybody else it would be. But I couldn't help wondering 'What would Josias do now?' Surely not nothing! With the enemy in his sights would he just place his order and carry on eating?
I'm glad that I have such a positive effect on your life, Roger. If you continue thinking how your betters may act then you might even develop a better moral base.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
As I commented below, they really are the Judean People's Front Suicide Squad.
"That'll show em!"
Iain Duncan Smith, @trussliz supporter, on Mordaunt's lead in polls among Tory members and in being the candidate to best beat Labour: “The most important thing is not to look at what the polls say," he tells @BBCr4today
You’ve got to love the ERG - the Tories’ very own Socialist Campaign Group, but actually relevant. It remains amazing that the Tories watched Labour almost destroy itself over Corbynism and learned all the wrong lessons.
As I commented below, they really are the Judean People's Front Suicide Squad.
"That'll show em!"
Iain Duncan Smith, @trussliz supporter, on Mordaunt's lead in polls among Tory members and in being the candidate to best beat Labour: “The most important thing is not to look at what the polls say," he tells @BBCr4today
IDS really is monumentally thick. He is like a walking slab of granite.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
As I commented below, they really are the Judean People's Front Suicide Squad.
"That'll show em!"
Iain Duncan Smith, @trussliz supporter, on Mordaunt's lead in polls among Tory members and in being the candidate to best beat Labour: “The most important thing is not to look at what the polls say," he tells @BBCr4today
IDS really is monumentally thick. He is like a walking slab of granite.
Minor point of order, the Cass review is broadly about paediatric gender services, not focused on teenage birth females wanting to transition. It is fair to say that the rapid rise in gender dysphoria among children is largely driven by teenage birth females, so to some extent I'm splitting hairs, but the review is much broader than that, looking at the pros and cons of various treatment options and the (lack of) evidence.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
It’s a very pleasant 26-28 degrees in the week ahead down here in Cyprus. And we have air con, pools and the beautiful clear sea to chill down in. Enjoy being baked alive folks.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
It's really hard to see how anyone who has not acted as a party leader or a leader of a large group for some time will cope as PM. In Johnson's case, his time as MoL did not bode well. But none of the candidates have that sort of experience.
It will definitely be a sink-or-swim moment for whoever gets the job.
Backed Mordaunt a little more at 2.15. Greener on everyone else, but evens the scales a little bit.
Trouble is, I sense an insider/outsider issue here (as per the Oborne video) and it looks like Truss may be the insiders' fallback if they can't lever Sunak into the top job. As the fresh face, Mordaunt is already on the receiving end of an attempted hatchet job.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Wise point. Thatcher was initially considered to be a dream opponent. She turned into a nightmare.
I’m starting to get a bit concerned about Mordaunt. I think she might be good. Very good.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
She's the right choice for them. 👍
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Cyclefree's article us up to her usual high standard. I agree totally with her on the merits of my local MP, Suella. From what I've read on here today about Penny Mordaunt but also about Liz Truss, it seems that Rishi Sunak shouldn't be written off yet. Both Mordaunt and Truss seem to have actions in their past which could get exposure in the campaign and put the Tory membership off them. Rishi could be the grown up in the last two.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Obviously there are the two debates before the next vote (possibly more if the heatwave means the vote is postponed) and we are already seeing attacks by camp followers and in the press.
As I stated here yesterday, the 2nd round results weren't bad for Truss and slightly disappointing for Mordaunt. The betting markets have now moved in line with that assessment and tbh I think they were a bit slow to move. Braverman's endorsement helps slightly, but it was always the case that the bulk of her support could be expected to fall in behind Truss, whether or not there was a formal endorsement.
So, in Italy, Draghi's resignation was bounced. And he goes on a trade mission to Algeria on Monday/Tuesday, seeking alternative fuel.sources, then addresses parliament on Wednesday.
Technically, all parties still claim to be in the coalition and on paper Draghi still has a substantial majority in his unity government but:
- M5S did not attend the cost of living bill vote which was considered a matter of confidence, but could still come back to the fold - Lega, seeing the left have now ruptured due to M5S's actions and knowing it's own poll ratings aren't going to.improve are actioning for a September election on the basis that the wider centre-right are in a good position.
What those 2 elements now choose determines whether Draghi's resignation is ultimately accepted.
The work to shore up Italy for the coming winter emergencies is not yet considered done, the question is whether it can be better taken forward by Draghi with a fractious unity or by the likely post election right of centre government.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Wise point. Thatcher was initially considered to be a dream opponent. She turned into a nightmare.
I’m starting to get a bit concerned about Mordaunt. I think she might be good. Very good.
If she may be good or very good why are you worried?
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.
The party is really determined to choose a loser isn't it?
It couldn't be clearer that Penny is the candidate for the Tories. She's who I fear the most as a Labour member but the country is more important - she might actually do a good job and get us off these pointless culture wars.
Country over party, I think the Tories should pick Truss.
She is in my opinion the best candidate for the country, and the best person to be PM. But I'm not convinced she'd win an election, but that's not really my concern since I'm not backing the Tories anymore, but I might again if Truss wins.
Wallet over country, I still want Rishi to win. Sorry.
Kudos for your honesty. I'm not really getting the Truss hate.
Me neither. As I've said a few times, this is someone who has been in the Cabinet for a decade, has held some of the biggest jobs in that time, from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary . . . and all her critics ever come back to is she spoke oddly while DEFRA Secretary nearly a decade ago in a speech about cheese and pork markets.
Like him or loathe him, Boris's critics had a litany of reasons they disliked him that was virtually endless. Truss made a funny speech about a decade ago and . . . that's about it. That's all her opponents ever harp on about, from a decade as a big beast at the top of Government all she's done wrong is say "that is a disgrace" nearly a decade ago. 🤷♂️
And tbf. That was about her peculiar cadence. She isn't a good public speaker. That is a fair critique. But then I thought Boris was poor. A forest of ums and errs disguised by the odd memorable phrase.
He could overcome it with energy and bumbling charm.
The unelected Boris peer Lord Frost gets a spot in the Telegraph to urge one leadership candidate to stand down, offering her a major job in the future cabinet of another. WTF does he think he is?
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
This is fairly interesting news if true, and it's a shame Dura_Ace is not around too pour his customary scorn onto it:
"Britain and Japan are close to an agreement to merge their next-generation Tempest and F-X fighter jet programmes, with the two countries aiming for a deal on a new joint project by year-end"
He seems to get treated as a big beast of the party for some reason. He came from nowhere, served briefly in a job usually done by nameless officials, and was ennobled, that's it.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
I am hoping either the government or my work will tell me to stay home Monday and Tuesday, I am not sure about a 20k round trip cycle ride each day in 40C heat. Luckily I have aircon in my garden office so should be reasonably pleasant at home too.
Expect the crap speakers in the debate to say something like "I'm not some slick salesman like my opponents, I'm for real". If you dont present well you have to try and make it a positive.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Wise point. Thatcher was initially considered to be a dream opponent. She turned into a nightmare.
I’m starting to get a bit concerned about Mordaunt. I think she might be good. Very good.
If she may be good or very good why are you worried?
Because, unlike the Unionists, we are not complacent.
If the Unionists have reasonable, competent, likeable leaders then they will be harder to beat. It is plain common sense.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
The party is really determined to choose a loser isn't it?
It couldn't be clearer that Penny is the candidate for the Tories. She's who I fear the most as a Labour member but the country is more important - she might actually do a good job and get us off these pointless culture wars.
Country over party, I think the Tories should pick Truss.
She is in my opinion the best candidate for the country, and the best person to be PM. But I'm not convinced she'd win an election, but that's not really my concern since I'm not backing the Tories anymore, but I might again if Truss wins.
Wallet over country, I still want Rishi to win. Sorry.
Kudos for your honesty. I'm not really getting the Truss hate.
Me neither. As I've said a few times, this is someone who has been in the Cabinet for a decade, has held some of the biggest jobs in that time, from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary . . . and all her critics ever come back to is she spoke oddly while DEFRA Secretary nearly a decade ago in a speech about cheese and pork markets.
Like him or loathe him, Boris's critics had a litany of reasons they disliked him that was virtually endless. Truss made a funny speech about a decade ago and . . . that's about it. That's all her opponents ever harp on about, from a decade as a big beast at the top of Government all she's done wrong is say "that is a disgrace" nearly a decade ago. 🤷♂️
And tbf. That was about her peculiar cadence. She isn't a good public speaker. That is a fair critique. But then I thought Boris was poor. A forest of ums and errs disguised by the odd memorable phrase.
He could overcome it with energy and bumbling charm.
Putting Truss in overall charge of the nukes is going to keep me awake at nights. I just have a feeling that of all the candidates left she is the one that the top job will send bonkers very quickly.
He seems to get treated as a big beast of the party for some reason. He came from nowhere, served briefly in a job usually done by nameless officials, and was ennobled, that's it.
Good to see other people asking this question. The rise of the mediocrity Frost is one of the mysteries of modern politics. At least someone got a Brexit dividend I suppose.
Comments
Since until recently we lived darn sarf we have several air conditioning units that have been sitting in our shed. We have pledged the majority of them to family members for Monday/Tuesday though as we reckon so long as our bedroom is fine the rest we can cope with so not especially bothered about this heat wave on a personal level, but am deeply concerned about what this sort of thing means for the country - it's becoming unliveable down in the south east.
Anyway my betting position on the next PM market - green on everyone since have been playing this since Boris became PM and with all the volatility we've had only an imbecile could have failed to make money (I see stuff like laying Nigel Farage at 38 in my history) - but my current postion is essentially:
1. Piled onto Badenoch. I cannot justify this rationally. It's pure gut feel and a 'vanity bet' where I'm spending a few hundred quid of my green which I cannot recommend copying. She's the sensible choice that tories *should* pick and I've emailed my MP (with a majority of 1500) urging him to endorse her rather than Rishi who he's curently behind. He's completely doomed with Sunak, I don't understand what he's doing.
2. Having previously backed the shit out of her, laid the shit out of Penny as a trading bet. Rather pleased I have a local maximum backing price on her of 2.86 from an order I left in but sadly it's only £28 of the order. Still, some chance I can get some more back. A quick trading position and I will probably go neutral soon.
3. Suank is value at these odds. I'm currently short him from much lower and trading out of the position. Once I've done that I may back him too
4. Truss beats Sunak and loses to Penny. Her price has the feel of market manipulation. Avoiding touching.
5. TT/Raab/Starmer - not much point in doing anything.
Never heard of these guys before, so am obliged to you.
Please get snow cones in your fav flavors for your & yours - will reimburse next (or first) time we meet!
As for cooler, my cube job I got a few summers ago puts out a good deal of COLD air in a SMALL area, say about 9-10 cubic feet. Won't cool a room but will help you stop sweating in bed (for a bit) and get to sleep.
EDIT - Think you are correct with respect to the homemade kind of swamp cooler in higher humidity. Just isn't cool enough that situation.
Where I'm typing this from right now, the floor is directly over earth. Which creates a cooling effect, I can feel the cooler air on my legs under the table. Very nice on a warm let alone hot day.
Just seems bizarre to me the country may end up with Penny Mordaunt... I don't think most people even know who she is.
Surely it will be Rishi or Truss... both of whom have actually done major jobs in govt before.
They are pretty noisy though - mainly due to the compressor. Not something you'd normally want in a room, particularly as you have to keep the door shut. I suspect the best use of one would be to cool a bedroom down before going to bed.
Was thinking it might be a bit excessive but dare I suggest that some models are suggesting a reload the following weekend...
Is this man pulling the strings of the Badenoch Campaign?
And with the explosive ammo it’s being rumoured he is sitting on, can he actually pull it off?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXWFLRmCO6M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWsa_sqdYzM
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
1.29 Rishi Sunak 78%
1.41 Penny Mordaunt 71%
2.12 Liz Truss 47%
14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
55 Tom Tugendhat
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
2.12 Penny Mordaunt 47%
3.5 Liz Truss 29%
4.6 Rishi Sunak 22%
30 Kemi Badenoch
110 Dominic Raab
170 Tom Tugendhat
Obviously there are the two debates before the next vote (possibly more if the heatwave means the vote is postponed) and we are already seeing attacks by camp followers and in the press.
She did not say who she would support if Badenoch is knocked out but she certainly didn't come across as likely to switch to Truss.
And finally ragtime pianists are adding Radiohead to their repertoires.
https://twitter.com/tedgioia/status/1547788422344953858
It is going to be so close that this is not inconceivable.
The demise of the ERG is something I look forward to.
Mr. B2, forecast to be 37C, feels like 40C here on Tuesday. 26C at 10pm that 'night'.
Anyhow, once the air temperature reaches normal body temperature - which it will next week - that ceases to apply.
If it was still tied at that point I suspect they would draw lots.
If it is Rishi in a slight lead and Liz+Penny tied in the final round ballot, that is harder to fix.
https://youtu.be/N3Mk8fo71RM
And I agree it would be harder but I don’t see they have many other choices. Unless they send all three forward because i don’t think (although I haven’t checked) the rules actually state there must be two, just that there must be ‘a selection’.
Has to be said, the Tory party rules on the leadership haven’t shown to best advantage in this contest.
They should be on their way to the funny farm
Female 1.21
Male 3.6
Gender of next Lab leader:
Female 1.54
Male 2.22
'A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.'
Two candidates makes that simpler.
So there is no reason why it couldn't be three candidates using AV.
That might be the way they go in the event of a tie.
But I don't think it's very likely. In 2001 there was still one vote in it, and there are more than twice as many MPs now.
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
I thank you.
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
"Britain and Japan are close to an agreement to merge their next-generation Tempest and F-X fighter jet programmes, with the two countries aiming for a deal on a new joint project by year-end"
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-britain-japan-aim-merge-tempest-f-x-fighter-programmes-sources-2022-07-14/
"That'll show em!"
And you've never heard 'Mud, mud, glorious mud'?
I don't think your odds are too far out.
“The most important thing is not to look at what the polls say," he tells @BBCr4today
When writing the leadership rules, the Tories should have allowed for this eventuality. I wonder if they did.
"The two tied candidates select their seconds & flintlocks and repair to Friar's Common to settle the matter in the time honoured manner."
Or maybe a bikini mud wrestle between Liz and Penny ? (Penny would win that).
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
It will definitely be a sink-or-swim moment for whoever gets the job.
It will be Nicola Murray on steroids.
Never mind learning to walk, she gets lost in a room with a single door...
Quiet Bat people?
Emergency reshuffle on a train to Doncaster.
It's going to be epic (and shit)
I’m starting to get a bit concerned about Mordaunt. I think she might be good. Very good.
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
I agree totally with her on the merits of my local MP, Suella.
From what I've read on here today about Penny Mordaunt but also about Liz Truss, it seems that Rishi Sunak shouldn't be written off yet. Both Mordaunt and Truss seem to have actions in their past which could get exposure in the campaign and put the Tory membership off them. Rishi could be the grown up in the last two.
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
It seems only fair that the same (mud wrasslin) applies to the males if we end up with two males (admittedly unlikely).
So, in Italy, Draghi's resignation was bounced. And he goes on a trade mission to Algeria on Monday/Tuesday, seeking alternative fuel.sources, then addresses parliament on Wednesday.
Technically, all parties still claim to be in the coalition and on paper Draghi still has a substantial majority in his unity government but:
- M5S did not attend the cost of living bill vote which was considered a matter of confidence, but could still come back to the fold
- Lega, seeing the left have now ruptured due to M5S's actions and knowing it's own poll ratings aren't going to.improve are actioning for a September election on the basis that the wider centre-right are in a good position.
What those 2 elements now choose determines whether Draghi's resignation is ultimately accepted.
The work to shore up Italy for the coming winter emergencies is not yet considered done, the question is whether it can be better taken forward by Draghi with a fractious unity or by the likely post election right of centre government.
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1547838706312101888
https://twitter.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1547835505315758082
That you consider her batshit crazy utterly justifies the ERG backing her. She's completely sound. 👍
PB does need to chill out about the weather - going to be hot enough for everyone down south.
The unelected Boris peer Lord Frost gets a spot in the Telegraph to urge one leadership candidate to stand down, offering her a major job in the future cabinet of another. WTF does he think he is?
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1547839713926492160
I'd still prefer (betting-wise) Sunak to be in the top 2.
Mordaunt does seem to prefer rewriting her own history to admitting that she changed her mind, a rigidity that isn't good in politics.
If the Unionists have reasonable, competent, likeable leaders then they will be harder to beat. It is plain common sense.
London might just beat that on Monday/Tuesday
Don't say I didn't warn you all.