The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
Today it wasn't hot in London, just pleasantly warm.
Hmm. I'd say hot but with a strong, cooling breeze. When the breeze dropped, the still air was suddenly stifling.
I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.
The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.
Those voting for TT are voting for a paragon of *Teutonic* virtue. Nominally at least.
It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.
I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
Well that's a good point. Who knows if the SNP would really vote for it at Westminster, or find some excuse to block it. You see they say they want it but they don't really any more than turkeys want Christmas.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy. Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Another amazing prediction is the speed at which the temperature FALLS (thank God)
In some places it is predicted to fall by 20C in 6-12 hours. That's like extreme Chicago weather - in Blighty
Indeed would that be the steepest temporal temperature gradient ever? in the UK?
I have a friend in Kentucky and her weather once went from summer temperatures in the high 20sC to below freezing in a single week.
It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.
I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
Starmer only does PR in the event of a Hung Parliament
Which is probably the only way he’ll be PM after Penny.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
Today it wasn't hot in London, just pleasantly warm.
Hmm. I'd say hot but with a strong, cooling breeze. When the breeze dropped, the still air was suddenly stifling.
Yes, I've felt the same (having just come back from the Med). Quite odd
With a breeze it's a highly pleasant summer's day. Yet when it goes and you're in the sun, it doesn't feel like London at all. More like Spain
So Suella is out and the momentum continues to be with Mordaunt who picked up the most extra support in terms of new MPs backing since the first round.
However some suspicion she is too woke, not only from Cyclefree it seems but also Toby Young
It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.
I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
Starmer only does PR in the event of a Hung Parliament
Which is probably the only way he’ll be PM after Penny.
It’s my central forecast.
I think Penny puts up a respectable performance but time for a change will resonate hard
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
Excellent news for Kemi Badenoch.
If Tugendhat were to support her it'd be very interesting.
So Suella is out and the momentum continues to be with Mordaunt who picked up the most extra support in terms of new MPs backing since the first round.
However some suspicion she is too woke, not only from Cyclefree it seems but also Toby Young
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
- There is signs of plateauing in hospital admissions in nearly all areas and age groups. R is fairly flat at the moment, but we should expect the flattening to feed through into the calculation soon. - Some signs that In hospital is plateauing, as you might expect. MV beds still going up - Deaths - UP.
One thing I've noticed since brexit: a decrease in eastern European staff in local pubs and hostelries, and an increase in young British staff - particularly teenage women.
And, do you know what? They're absolutely fine.
They lack a bit of confidence and can be a bit shy, but they're very nice and work hard. In my local (although I've noticed this elsewhere) they are now all entirely British and all about 19-20 years old, and don't seem to have any worse work ethic. I've seen the landlord ask for extra help, or for them to take on an extra task, and they jump to it. Otherwise they wait around politely or chat with fellow staff, and never unprofessionally.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
The only time you've ever prayed is if you were trying to get off with a pack of Nuns. (I'm sure 'pack' isn't the right collective, but I can't think what is)
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
On topic, I have the same reservations about Penny Mordaunt.
I don't take Kemi Badenoch's more dogmatic positions too seriously. She's far too intelligent to be taken in by dogma alone and I think she'd learn on the job; crucially, I think she'd learn without being captured by the establishment.
She is what we'll wish the Tories would have picked in 2-3 years time but won't now.
Oh shut up you Queen, you're turning into a bigger knob that SeanT who kept on sharing this model in 2020 that said 3 billion were going to die from Covid-19 by September 2020.
One thing I've noticed since brexit: a decrease in eastern European staff in local pubs and hostelries, and an increase in young British staff - particularly teenage women.
And, do you know what? They're absolutely fine.
They lack a bit of confidence and can be a bit shy, but they're very nice and work hard. In my local (although I've noticed this elsewhere) they are now all entirely British and all about 19-20 years old, and don't seem to have any worse work ethic. I've seen the landlord ask for extra help, or for them to take on an extra task, and they jump to it. Otherwise they wait around politely or chat with fellow staff, and never unprofessionally.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
Oh shut up you Queen, you're turning into a bigger knob that SeanT who kept on sharing this model in 2020 that said 3 billion were going to die from Covid-19 by September 2020.
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
Excellent news for Kemi Badenoch.
If Tugendhat were to support her it'd be very interesting.
I was wondering who TT will support. Penny, I suppose. Possibly Rishi, though there'd have to be a few contortions. Not Liz. Kemi strikes me us unlikely, but not inconceivable.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.
Excellent news for Kemi Badenoch.
If Tugendhat were to support her it'd be very interesting.
I was wondering who TT will support. Penny, I suppose. Possibly Rishi, though there'd have to be a few contortions. Not Liz. Kemi strikes me us unlikely, but not inconceivable.
Kemi could have Gove in the treasury and TT in the FO, and Patel would most likely be up for the Home Office.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
Hardly, even Starmer backs Brexit now, unless the LDs win the next election Brexit will still be a big factor
On topic, I have the same reservations about Penny Mordaunt.
I don't take Kemi Badenoch's more dogmatic positions too seriously. She's far too intelligent to be taken in by dogma alone and I think she'd learn on the job; crucially, I think she'd learn without being captured by the establishment.
She is what we'll wish the Tories would have picked in 2-3 years time but won't now.
IF Suella Braverman is so intelligent, then - according to Cyclefree - why/how is it that SB's "incoherence on all matters legal marks her out as one of the worst Attorneys-General of recent times"?
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy. Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
All the main forecast centres run their main models every 6 hours*. GFS is used most widely because the US government insist that NOAA give away their forecast data for free. This means any Tom, Dick or Harry can create a weather app that uses GFS model data, whereas if you want to use Met Office or ECMWF data you have to pay for it.
To be fair, some of the independent weather outfits, like Meteogroup, do use some fancy statistical downscaling to produce local weather forecasts from the raw GFS model data. But, they're still using GFS model data. And GFS model data is consistently the third most accurate model, after ECMWF and the Met Office. But reality might still come on the high side of expectations.
* I think the Met Office run some of their local area models every 3 hours, but I haven't checked the details recently. They were thinking about it though.
"It feels increasingly like the Tory leadership contest is now Mordaunt's to lose. The question is whether the final two will be Mordaunt versus Truss or Sunak."
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
What do you mean by that though? Brexit as an end has been achieved. So what is the ideology of Brexit? Are you regarding it as isolationist?
Have I woken up in the early 2000s......what's going on in the cricket....this isn't modern ODI cricket.
Tribute to the 2019 world cup final, which was three years ago today.
England will still find a way to lose this.
We wouldn't have it any other way.
Speak for yourself!
Would we have enjoyed the world cup win if England scored 500/4 from 50 overs and we skittled New Zealand for 150 all out as much as the actual result.
I think my resting heart rate was around 160 that late afternoon.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
Hardly, even Starmer backs Brexit now, unless the LDs win the next election Brexit will still be a big factor
He doesn’t “back” Brexit, he accepts it. The amount of “backers” is in rapid decay.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
No. Boris was our Berlusconi.
More Berlusconi than Trump yes, Farage would have been our Trump policy wise
How many debates did we have for the last general election? I'm sort of wondering if, relative to that, 3 Conservative leadership TV debates isn't one or maybe two too many.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
No. Boris was our Berlusconi.
But with even lower level of competence AND integrity.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Wait a minute.. James O'Brien doesn't like Brexit?
Have I woken up in the early 2000s......what's going on in the cricket....this isn't modern ODI cricket.
Tribute to the 2019 world cup final, which was three years ago today.
England will still find a way to lose this.
We wouldn't have it any other way.
Speak for yourself!
Would we have enjoyed the world cup win if England scored 500/4 from 50 overs and we skittled New Zealand for 150 all out as much as the actual result.
I think my resting heart rate was around 160 that late afternoon.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Except in this case we are now odds on 38C+ and around 40% likely to hit 40C.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
Model run, though last I saw was 00z for Mogreps.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
I always saw your idol as Trump-lite, but you may be correct, he is probably Berlusconi-lite.
Johnson just got a FPN versus Berlusconi's conviction for tax fraud. Berlusconi was a media magnate whereas Johnson was a failed journalist. Johnson was one of the shortest serving PMs of his country whereas Berlusconi the longest.
On topic, I have the same reservations about Penny Mordaunt.
I don't take Kemi Badenoch's more dogmatic positions too seriously. She's far too intelligent to be taken in by dogma alone and I think she'd learn on the job; crucially, I think she'd learn without being captured by the establishment.
She is what we'll wish the Tories would have picked in 2-3 years time but won't now.
IF Suella Braverman is so intelligent, then - according to Cyclefree - why/how is it that SB's "incoherence on all matters legal marks her out as one of the worst Attorneys-General of recent times"?
She's been using the job as a platform to variously help Boris bodge around the lies he told about deals he signed and impress the Tory membership. Her intelligence isn't applied to legal coherence because legal coherence isn't a goal.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
What do you mean by that though? Brexit as an end has been achieved. So what is the ideology of Brexit? Are you regarding it as isolationist?
The ECHR-hate, the mindless recital that we will unlock “opportunities”, the belief that we can Brexit our way to wealth or good governance.
Winviz 97% England...that's absolutely crazy. They only need 100, you get 2 batters in and you can chase that down in 18 overs (especially in modern game). That is more likely than 3 in 100 attempts.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman · 1h Excl: Andrea Leadsom would be Penny Mordaunt's chancellor if she succeeds Boris Johnson, Conservative MPs believe
It's gotten to the point where I can't tell whether that's one of the rivals' camps briefing something damaging, or the candidate herself is just a lunatic.
I'm going to believe the former just because it's easier to process.
Have I woken up in the early 2000s......what's going on in the cricket....this isn't modern ODI cricket.
Tribute to the 2019 world cup final, which was three years ago today.
England will still find a way to lose this.
We wouldn't have it any other way.
Speak for yourself!
Would we have enjoyed the world cup win if England scored 500/4 from 50 overs and we skittled New Zealand for 150 all out as much as the actual result.
I think my resting heart rate was around 160 that late afternoon.
Yes.
Yes too. Also see the 2003 rugby World Cup where we should have won in normal time by 20 points but for the atrocious refereeing at the scrum.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Wait a minute.. James O'Brien doesn't like Brexit?
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Well, 200,000 have. An order of magnitude more than the 20,000 figure touted at one stage early in the first wave.
I think that qualifies as half right as far as predictions go.
Have I woken up in the early 2000s......what's going on in the cricket....this isn't modern ODI cricket.
Tribute to the 2019 world cup final, which was three years ago today.
England will still find a way to lose this.
We wouldn't have it any other way.
Speak for yourself!
Would we have enjoyed the world cup win if England scored 500/4 from 50 overs and we skittled New Zealand for 150 all out as much as the actual result.
I think my resting heart rate was around 160 that late afternoon.
Yes.
Nah, my mood swings that last hour were giving me whiplash which made the victory even sweeter.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
I think he means that Brexit was pointless, which it was. Nonetheless, for whatever reason it has happened and we have to get on with it. Right wingers will carry on droning on about it until enough people say very loudly "nobody cares".
One thing I've noticed since brexit: a decrease in eastern European staff in local pubs and hostelries, and an increase in young British staff - particularly teenage women.
And, do you know what? They're absolutely fine.
They lack a bit of confidence and can be a bit shy, but they're very nice and work hard. In my local (although I've noticed this elsewhere) they are now all entirely British and all about 19-20 years old, and don't seem to have any worse work ethic. I've seen the landlord ask for extra help, or for them to take on an extra task, and they jump to it. Otherwise they wait around politely or chat with fellow staff, and never unprofessionally.
Great to see.
I was talking to an Aberdonian taxi driver..
Do you want to come to my local pub yourself and take a look?
I'm melting on Monday in Cambridge. On Tuesday I'll be flowing into the boiling Cam. And on Wednesday I'll be evaporating into the dissipated atmosphere.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Except in this case we are now odds on 38C+ and around 40% likely to hit 40C.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
Model run, though last I saw was 00z for Mogreps.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
No, I said hat dinner at 40, not 36. And I’m not downplaying what is looking an extreme event, albeit likely short lived. Over on netweather something described it as perfect conditions for this to happen. We may well get a record. We may get over 40, but I stand by my comments re models, and 7 day predictions.
Comments
Nobody is stupid enough to do that, not even the Lib Dems.
With a breeze it's a highly pleasant summer's day. Yet when it goes and you're in the sun, it doesn't feel like London at all. More like Spain
However some suspicion she is too woke, not only from Cyclefree it seems but also Toby Young
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1547533888968445954?s=20&t=VlJvvsBJS3PZSn9cpkcVvA
We need someone to lead us in prayer
I think Penny puts up a respectable performance but time for a change will resonate hard
Presumably that will be for the Final Three.
(Unless Tom pulls out, but even if he does they may delay final MPs ballot to Wednesday).
- There is signs of plateauing in hospital admissions in nearly all areas and age groups. R is fairly flat at the moment, but we should expect the flattening to feed through into the calculation soon.
- Some signs that In hospital is plateauing, as you might expect. MV beds still going up
- Deaths - UP.
And, do you know what? They're absolutely fine.
They lack a bit of confidence and can be a bit shy, but they're very nice and work hard. In my local (although I've noticed this elsewhere) they are now all entirely British and all about 19-20 years old, and don't seem to have any worse work ethic. I've seen the landlord ask for extra help, or for them to take on an extra task, and they jump to it. Otherwise they wait around politely or chat with fellow staff, and never unprofessionally.
Great to see.
I don't envy you lot down south.
I don't take Kemi Badenoch's more dogmatic positions too seriously. She's far too intelligent to be taken in by dogma alone and I think she'd learn on the job; crucially, I think she'd learn without being captured by the establishment.
She is what we'll wish the Tories would have picked in 2-3 years time but won't now.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1547634702000877568?s=20&t=VlJvvsBJS3PZSn9cpkcVvA
But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
To be fair, some of the independent weather outfits, like Meteogroup, do use some fancy statistical downscaling to produce local weather forecasts from the raw GFS model data. But, they're still using GFS model data. And GFS model data is consistently the third most accurate model, after ECMWF and the Met Office. But reality might still come on the high side of expectations.
* I think the Met Office run some of their local area models every 3 hours, but I haven't checked the details recently. They were thinking about it though.
Choppers, Telegraph.
I think my resting heart rate was around 160 that late afternoon.
make the final two
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
We've decided to go to a working man's champagne bar.
The amount of “backers” is in rapid decay.
@hzeffman
·
1h
Excl: Andrea Leadsom would be Penny Mordaunt's chancellor if she succeeds Boris Johnson, Conservative MPs believe
Are you sure?
Why haven't I heard this before?
Gotta be a question for the TV debates:
"We are in utter shit economically with worse to come: who will be your chancellor?"
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
Johnson just got a FPN versus Berlusconi's conviction for tax fraud. Berlusconi was a media magnate whereas Johnson was a failed journalist. Johnson was one of the shortest serving PMs of his country whereas Berlusconi the longest.
Nah, Johnson is still the Poundshop Trump
I'm going to believe the former just because it's easier to process.
Also see the 2003 rugby World Cup where we should have won in normal time by 20 points but for the atrocious refereeing at the scrum.
'As a mother I know about importance of controlling the household bills'
I think that qualifies as half right as far as predictions go.
DM me. I'll give you the address.
On Tuesday I'll be flowing into the boiling Cam.
And on Wednesday I'll be evaporating into the dissipated atmosphere.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1547652125169094657?s=20&t=p3lPWF6Q-VALs5-UKNPADg
We may well get a record. We may get over 40, but I stand by my comments re models, and 7 day predictions.