One thing I've noticed since brexit: a decrease in eastern European staff in local pubs and hostelries, and an increase in young British staff - particularly teenage women.
And, do you know what? They're absolutely fine.
They lack a bit of confidence and can be a bit shy, but they're very nice and work hard. In my local (although I've noticed this elsewhere) they are now all entirely British and all about 19-20 years old, and don't seem to have any worse work ethic. I've seen the landlord ask for extra help, or for them to take on an extra task, and they jump to it. Otherwise they wait around politely or chat with fellow staff, and never unprofessionally.
Great to see.
I was talking to an Aberdonian taxi driver..
Do you want to come to my local pub yourself and take a look?
DM me. I'll give you the address.
Heavens no.
Anyway, calm doon. It was a riff on the Albanian taxi driver meme, but replacing it with something British. It was entirely light-hearted.
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
I always saw your idol as Trump-lite, but you may be correct, he is probably Berlusconi-lite.
Johnson just got a FPN versus Berlusconi's conviction for tax fraud. Berlusconi was a media magnate whereas Johnson was a failed journalist. Johnson was one of the shortest serving PMs of his country whereas Berlusconi the longest.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
I think he means that Brexit was pointless, which it was. Nonetheless, for whatever reason it has happened and we have to get on with it. Right wingers will carry on droning on about it until enough people say very loudly "nobody cares".
The reason there is an ongoing debate is that there's still a substantial number of people who want to reverse it. It's hypocritical for anyone who forms part of that group to complain about the other side "droning on about it".
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
I think there's truth in that: EU membership is unlikely to be a serious proposition in any of our lifetimes.
But that doesn't stop the nature of our relationship with the EU being a perpetual scab.
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
I watched someone in a two-seater rear wheel drive BMW convertible, with essentially no boot, trying to deliver packages round a very hilly housing scheme in the middle of winter 2021.
With Rees Mogg, Braverman, Dorries, Francois, Steve Baker and IDS behind her, Truss is now clearly the candidate of the ERG. I would expect Priti Patel to declare for Truss too before the last ballot.
With Badenoch now likely eliminated early next week once Braverman voters get behind Truss (and with most Tugenhadt voters likely going to Sunak or Mordaunt), Truss could still make the last 2 if she gets virtually all Badenoch backing MPs behind her in the final ballot
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
I watched someone in a two-seater rear wheel drive BMW convertible, with essentially no boot, trying to deliver packages round a very hilly housing scheme in the middle of winter 2021.
Practical, it did not look.
Past couple of weeks I have had blokes in a BMW, Merc and Audi....no one buys ones of those to hop from door to door delivering Amazon packages.
With Mogg, Braverman, Dorries, Francois, Steve Baker and IDS behind her, Truss is now clearly the candidate of the ERG.
With Badenoch now likely eliminated early next week once Braverman voters get behind Truss (and with most Tugenhadt voters likely going to Sunak or Mordaunt), Truss could still make the last 2 if she gets virtually all Badenoch backing MPs behind her in the final ballot
Facing whom? I struggle to see a path where Sunak doesn't make the runoff (which means he's going to come third next week...)
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
They haven't had their Johnson or Trump yet, that will likely come at the next general election when Lega Nord's Salvini or Brothers of Italy's Giorgia Meloni lead current polls
They had their Boris/Trump years ago in Berlusconi. The question is when they get their second!
Berlusconi was more Boris in personality, Salvini or Meloni will be more Trump in policy
I always saw your idol as Trump-lite, but you may be correct, he is probably Berlusconi-lite.
Johnson just got a FPN versus Berlusconi's conviction for tax fraud. Berlusconi was a media magnate whereas Johnson was a failed journalist. Johnson was one of the shortest serving PMs of his country whereas Berlusconi the longest.
Nah, Johnson is still the Poundshop Trump
He wasn't, Farage was our Trump
Boris was our American Berlusconi. Trump was the Italian Boris. Berlusconi was the British Trump. Farage was our Philippine Bolsonaro. Duterte was the Argentine Stalin. Mehmed II was the the Panamanian Hitler.
The Leadsom rumour is obviously emanating from the Rishi camp.
Yes. I'd be surprised and disappointed if Mordaunt made Leadsom CoE.
Whoever came up with that suggestion thought of the most risible candidate possible without their being totally implausible. They would've suggested that Mordaunt was willing to install Michael Fabricant in No.11 if they thought they could get away with it.
With Rees Mogg, Braverman, Dorries, Francois, Steve Baker and IDS behind her, Truss is now clearly the candidate of the ERG. I would expect Priti Patel to declare for Truss too before the last ballot.
With Badenoch now likely eliminated early next week once Braverman voters get behind Truss (and with most Tugenhadt voters likely going to Sunak or Mordaunt), Truss could still make the last 2 if she gets virtually all Badenoch backing MPs behind her in the final ballot
I don’t really mind Sunak as far as it goes. I seem to be in a very a small minority, but when I hear the nonsense most of the rest come out with I look at Rishi and think: yes, you’re a bog standard Tory, yes you’re somewhat implicated in partygate, no you don’t really have any meaningful solutions to the UK’s long term economic malaise. But at least you’re not obsessing over bashing Brussels or defining what a woman is or competing for the most uncosted tax cut possible.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
I think he means that Brexit was pointless, which it was. Nonetheless, for whatever reason it has happened and we have to get on with it. Right wingers will carry on droning on about it until enough people say very loudly "nobody cares".
The reason there is an ongoing debate is that there's still a substantial number of people who want to reverse it. It's hypocritical for anyone who forms part of that group to complain about the other side "droning on about it".
OK, I have stopped laughing at you using the hypocritical word there Paul (or should I call you Saul )
I am certainly not in favour of reversing it. My main objection to it was that it was divisive unnecessary and without any merit. Going through a further divisive referendum would not be in the country's interest unless there were indications of a huge groundswell of opinion in that direction.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Well, 200,000 have. An order of magnitude more than the 20,000 figure touted at one stage early in the first wave.
I think that qualifies as half right as far as predictions go.
That James O’Brien rant posted upthread is wrong about Kemi and the Rishi-as-generation-game-contestant metaphor doesn’t really work, but he’s right overall —— Brexit is well past it’s apogee and well into it’s rotting stage.
Yes and no. Whilst decay is creeping in, and it's all rather whiffy, it's also at the "not in front of the children grandparents" stage where alternatives can't (yet) be discussed. That's going to take 10-15 years to resolve itself, unfortunately.
To resolve, sure. But Brexit as a governing ideology will as dead as the Jacobites come 2025.
That sounds meaningless to me. If 'Brexit' is the rejection of political integration, it can't die unless people wholly embrace the EU and decide the answer to our problems is to ditch the pound and give up on any alternative project.
It seems more likely that a new generation of politicians, such as Kemi Badenoch or her equivalent on the left, will come along and make the whole debate about EU membership look irrelevant.
I think there's truth in that: EU membership is unlikely to be a serious proposition in any of our lifetimes.
But that doesn't stop the nature of our relationship with the EU being a perpetual scab.
I really struggle to give a toss about the EU. We'd have exactly the same problems (just look at how well they're doing against the Dollar) as well as some new ones, in exchange for some frictional trading benefits. It's provide no solutions to our long-term domestic challenges and cause a lot of political federalist depression and malaise.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Except in this case we are now odds on 38C+ and around 40% likely to hit 40C.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
Model run, though last I saw was 00z for Mogreps.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
Where do you look at the Mogreps data? I didn't think the Met Office gave that away for free.
I don’t really mind Sunak as far as it goes. I seem to be in a very a small minority, but when I hear the nonsense most of the rest come out with I look at Rishi and think: yes, you’re a bog standard Tory, yes you’re somewhat implicated in partygate, no you don’t really have any meaningful solutions to the UK’s long term economic malaise. But at least you’re not obsessing over bashing Brussels or defining what a woman is or competing for the most uncosted tax cut possible.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Except in this case we are now odds on 38C+ and around 40% likely to hit 40C.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
Model run, though last I saw was 00z for Mogreps.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
No, I said hat dinner at 40, not 36. And I’m not downplaying what is looking an extreme event, albeit likely short lived. Over on netweather something described it as perfect conditions for this to happen.
We may well get a record. We may get over 40, but I stand by my comments re models, and 7 day predictions.
I must apologise for mistaken identity. Turns out it was Andy JS who made the hat 36 promise:
“Andy_JS Posts: 17,655 July 9
If it reaches more than 36 degrees anywhere in the UK this summer I'll eat my hat”
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
You should come up to the Lakes my darling. The weather is gloriously pleasant: sunny but comfortable. (PS Have sent you a VM.)
I did not realise that the TiT slogan was a spoof. Apologies. I wrote this at 5 am as I did not sleep last night and only updated this evening. Have been out all day.
I am allergic to liars, I'm afraid. Penny did not impress me during the referendum campaign and nothing I have seen since has changed my mind.
But, tbh, none of them are really talking about the stuff that matters to voters.
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
This might also explain why the quality of Hermes deliveries have improved.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
You should come up to the Lakes my darling. The weather is gloriously pleasant: sunny but comfortable.
I did not realise that the TiT slogan was a spoof. Apologies. I wrote this at 5 am as I did not sleep last night and only updated this evening. Have been out all day.
I am allergic to liars, I'm afraid. Penny did not impress me during the referendum campaign and nothing I have seen since has changed my mind.
But, tbh, none of them are really talking about the stuff that matters to voters.
Is that because you would prefer a Starmer administration?
With Rees Mogg, Braverman, Dorries, Francois, Steve Baker and IDS behind her, Truss is now clearly the candidate of the ERG. I would expect Priti Patel to declare for Truss too before the last ballot.
With Badenoch now likely eliminated early next week once Braverman voters get behind Truss (and with most Tugenhadt voters likely going to Sunak or Mordaunt), Truss could still make the last 2 if she gets virtually all Badenoch backing MPs behind her in the final ballot
She wont get all the Badenoch MPs.
Looking like Sunak v Penny to me tonight.
If we assume that Badenoch is the next to fall after Tugendhat, she could choose to support Sunak and persuade some of her support to do likewise. Badenoch seems to be more the choice of those who yearn for a return to Conservative economic orthodoxy than to keep on bleating endlessly about Europe - and what better way for Sunak to repair his own reputation in that area than by letting it be known that he's considering Badenoch for Chancellor?
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
It's a bit unfair on Sunak to compare him with Hillary.
What high office of state has Braverman been promised should Truss win?
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
Except in this case we are now odds on 38C+ and around 40% likely to hit 40C.
The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
"Some models"
Do you doubt this?
Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
Model run, though last I saw was 00z for Mogreps.
All major models have upper air at 22-23C in their op runs (a couple are a tad higher) and the ensemble means are the same. That equates to 39-40 C in good conditions.
You seem consistently very keen on the idea this will be a non event. I recall you were going to eat you hat if we got to 36C.
Where do you look at the Mogreps data? I didn't think the Met Office gave that away for free.
Brian Gaze (TWO) buys it and publishes some, but not all data - eg not the max temp maps - on his site but comments on what they are showing.
I find GFS an interesting example of soft power. A kind of BBC world service of met. Because it’s free and plentiful whilst ECM and UKMO are paywalled, it’s ubiquitous and powers most of the free apps too. So people pay it attention.
Best for surface temps and cloud seems to be the French Arome though. That’s the one I’ll be glued to on Sunday.
What high office of state has Braverman been promised should Truss win?
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
I hope it's not Education.
While from a selfish point of view her policies would cause demand for private tuition to skyrocket, that wouldn't compensate for further damage to the lives of millions of children.
I don’t really mind Sunak as far as it goes. I seem to be in a very a small minority, but when I hear the nonsense most of the rest come out with I look at Rishi and think: yes, you’re a bog standard Tory, yes you’re somewhat implicated in partygate, no you don’t really have any meaningful solutions to the UK’s long term economic malaise. But at least you’re not obsessing over bashing Brussels or defining what a woman is or competing for the most uncosted tax cut possible.
You are not alone there.
Yes you are right. But Liz Truss scares me so much that if I was an MP I would vote for Penny to keep her (LT) from the members.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
It's a bit unfair on Sunak to compare him with Hillary.
Maybe. But then that is not MY point. Do YOU believe that "even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss"?
The Left/Moderates need to get a plan - and quick - to stop the odious Truss getting anywhere near the final two. Could some vote lending to Penny be the way forward? Sunak is not much worse off against her than he is against Truss. And the Leadsom for Chancellor attack probably plays.
The Left/Moderates need to get a plan - and quick - to stop the odious Truss getting anywhere near the final two. Could some vote lending to Penny be the way forward? Sunak is not much worse off against her than he is against Truss. And the Leadsom for Chancellor attack probably plays.
But, STOP TRUSS has to be the early goal.
The only sure way to stop Truss would be to lend enough votes to Badenoch so that she overtakes Truss and forces her out.
What high office of state has Braverman been promised should Truss win?
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
I hope it's not Education.
While from a selfish point of view her policies would cause demand for private tuition to skyrocket, that wouldn't compensate for further damage to the lives of millions of children.
No offence, but I think DoE is too lowly for someone of the majestic political qualities as Braverman.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
What high office of state has Braverman been promised should Truss win?
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
I hope it's not Education.
While from a selfish point of view her policies would cause demand for private tuition to skyrocket, that wouldn't compensate for further damage to the lives of millions of children.
No offence, but I think DoE is too lowly for someone of the majestic political qualities as Braverman.
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
This might also explain why the quality of Hermes deliveries have improved.
I do hope Starmer and Reeves are using this time when there is no oxygen of publicity anywhere near them to wargame every possible tax bombshell tory attack and come up with something akin to Wilson's white heat stuff.
Change is in the air and they must not feck it up.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Yes. The Left of the party have a strategic problem now. A dream Mordant/Sunak ticket might be the best way of shutting out the Right. But how do they execute it?
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Nothing is impossible. It's even possible one day Johnson will say something truthful or Cummings will show a sign of intelligence.
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
Comments
But who knows. None of her declared supporters jumps out at me as the obvs CoE person.
Suella backs Truss
Anyway, calm doon. It was a riff on the Albanian taxi driver meme, but replacing it with something British. It was entirely light-hearted.
Andrea Leadsom to believe she would be Chancellor under a Penny government.
Help! This surely cannot be true??
But that doesn't stop the nature of our relationship with the EU being a perpetual scab.
Practical, it did not look.
It can't be Rishi, because of the fiscal prudence thing. And sticking by Boris too long. And being Cummings's man in Downing Street.
And most of the rest of them are politically mad, innumerate or both.
With Badenoch now likely eliminated early next week once Braverman voters get behind Truss (and with most Tugenhadt voters likely going to Sunak or Mordaunt), Truss could still make the last 2 if she gets virtually all Badenoch backing MPs behind her in the final ballot
Osborn was the last credible Chancellor. Six years ago now.
Farage was our Philippine Bolsonaro. Duterte was the Argentine Stalin. Mehmed II was the the Panamanian Hitler.
QED
Braverman told Sky news earlier she would 'take account' that Truss voted Remain in 2016.
Truss must have offered her something.
Looking like Sunak v Penny to me tonight.
Does he want that hassle?
I am certainly not in favour of reversing it. My main objection to it was that it was divisive unnecessary and without any merit. Going through a further divisive referendum would not be in the country's interest unless there were indications of a huge groundswell of opinion in that direction.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
Hell yes.
But he won't get it.
Nah. It's over. Out and stay out.
Rachel Reeves would be excellent.
But I do have to keep reminding myself that you were the one insisting that the clown wasn’t for deposing….
“Andy_JS Posts: 17,655
July 9
If it reaches more than 36 degrees anywhere in the UK this summer I'll eat my hat”
Brains don’t come into it.
I did not realise that the TiT slogan was a spoof. Apologies. I wrote this at 5 am as I did not sleep last night and only updated this evening. Have been out all day.
I am allergic to liars, I'm afraid. Penny did not impress me during the referendum campaign and nothing I have seen since has changed my mind.
But, tbh, none of them are really talking about the stuff that matters to voters.
Truss is a nutcase. I'd rather have Sunak.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
I find GFS an interesting example of soft power. A kind of BBC world service of met. Because it’s free and plentiful whilst ECM and UKMO are paywalled, it’s ubiquitous and powers most of the free apps too. So people pay it attention.
Best for surface temps and cloud seems to be the French Arome though. That’s the one I’ll be glued to on Sunday.
Her opponents are going to attempt to take apart Penny
We get
Sunak 101
Mordaunt 83
Truss 91
Badenoch 49
Tugendhat 32
Now imagine that Tugendhat is also gone. None of his votes are going to Truss or Badenoch. Imagine they split 50:50 to Sunak/Mordaunt.
Sunak 117
Mordaunt 99
Truss 91
Badenoch 49
I contend that Badenochers - who include the entire Levelling Up department - will not then give Truss the numbers to send her over the top.
While from a selfish point of view her policies would cause demand for private tuition to skyrocket, that wouldn't compensate for further damage to the lives of millions of children.
Kevin Schofield
@KevinASchofield
·
12m
Big boost for Truss.
Does this mean the foreign secretary is in favour of the UK leaving the ECHR?
1.87 Penny Mordaunt 53%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
44 Kemi Badenoch
130 Tom Tugendhat
170 Dominic Raab
But, STOP TRUSS has to be the early goal.
After all she read law at Cambridge.
ITV Sunday
Sky Tuesday
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Home?
Change is in the air and they must not feck it up.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Truss is very transfer friendly.
She has too big a target on her back now. A shame, as I think she's the best of the remaining candidates, for all her flaws.
Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
I don't think she stands much chance.