Political Love Island – politicalbetting.com
Political Love Island – politicalbetting.com
“Liar”. “Untrustworthy”. “Corrupt”. The highlights of a recent Boris Johnson word cloud. They are the reason the Tory party is choosing a new leader. That and the fact that he no longer appears to be an election winner. (We will come to that later.)
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Did I miss something?
PM CorrectHorseBattery is completing his second term in office. He copied the strategy of Keir Starmer’s successful 2024 election run.
Elsewhere Bart is still telling people about how he is infecting people around him with COVID-19
Sure, she's a liar. Rather have her than bojo. The end.
We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER
The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous
There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
1.85 Penny Mordaunt 54%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
4.8 Rishi Sunak 21%
28 Kemi Badenoch
150 Tom Tugendhat
290 Dominic Raab
Are they the ones from Prof Ferguson?
Cyclefree particularly not a Penny fan is my takeaway from this one.
Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
"Does penny mordaunt not look like a disaster waiting to happen? Big jalopy vibe. She is just like a substitute teacher who knows she's going to lose control of the class and earn the genuine pity of a group of twelve year olds.
I guess I am not alone in thinking the whole line up of candidates to be PM is poor pickings.
The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.
The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.
Would appear to be complete horse shit
That Braverman came sixth to be our next PM says it all really.
35 degrees for Midlands they say.
I'm not saying it is not going to be a nightmare. And we might break the 38.5 record. But 40+? Hmm...
Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking
But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales
It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
Weather apps take raw data, and are a useful guide only.
I still don’t think we will see 40 deg in the U.K.
But not too young to look "like a dazed Generation Game contestant"
If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally
Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
But I don't think you can add them neatly.
Model, max temp, where, when
Arpege (France): 38C, South, Mon (Tue not modelled, likely hotter)
ECM, 37C, London, Tue
GFS, 41C, Doncaster, Tue
ICON, 39C+, East, Tue (Not modelled beyond midday, likely well above 40C)
Met Office High Res, 40C+, East Midlands, Tue
I think we can be pretty certain now it is going to be effing hot. 39C or 40C? Does it matter?
In fairness to Tugendhat the TiT logo was a clever spoof….
Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
By Tuesday morning the heat is already out of Cornwall and by Wales and by the end of the day a spell of heavy and probably thundery rain extending from the south west has chased the heat out of all of England.
It cannot be all bad if that pub bore is against it.
In some places it is predicted to fall by 20C in 6-12 hours. That's like extreme Chicago weather - in Blighty
Indeed would that be the steepest temporal temperature gradient ever? in the UK?
But most extreme possibility is far from impossible by definition.
The wider, more relevant point is the evidence that Johnson has corrupted, at least partially, the way many of his colleagues see and do politics.
The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.
He's far more articulate and logical than Braverman.
@Flatlander gives a concise and fair summary of the predictions, as they stand, below
But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.
The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.
The latest ECMWF meteogram for Manchester has the highest temperature in the ensemble at 36C in Manchester on the Tuesday. I suppose you can get a couple more degrees out of that for the temperature at 3pm.
This other forecast chart gives a 0% probability for temperatures greater than 40C in the UK on Monday or Tuesday, and a >95% probability for temperatures greater than 30C in some places on both days.
I'm not sure how reliable the ECMWF ensemble is at forecasting maximum surface temperatures, and a relatively small forecast error could easily see temperatures exceed 40C somewhere, but I find it interesting that the ECMWF ensemble model hasn't shown those temperatures at all.
And once in a while his wild vomiting over the fetid entrails of his predictions yields a truth. Which he then takes as proof that all of his other vomit hides uncompromising truths. And when they turned out to be false, there's plenty more truths hidden beneath a mixture of wine, whelks and stomach acid.
lol
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123/today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62171284
As for "clever spoof", well, Adlai Stevenson was a great one for self-deprecating humor.
Amusing AND spoke well of the man - but did his electoral prospects zero good.
Make Me Prime Minister (w/t) will follow the ambitious candidates on the campaign trail. They will be put through their paces in a series of prime ministerial style tasks designed to test their leadership skills, resilience, and integrity. These weekly group challenges will be set and adjudicated by Alastair Campbell and Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, two political heavyweights who know exactly what it takes to succeed in office.
https://www.channel4.com/press/news/channel-4-gets-political-make-me-prime-minister-wt
Maybe we should have let them manage the current process.
It'll appeal to those who already agree with him, and no-one else.
Their hideous Dutch auction on tax cuts undermined whatever shreds of credibility they still had but it's not their fault. They have to promise the Moon to idiots so they have to dance this ludicrous dance.
None of the candidates so far seems to be addressing this, aside from fairytale tax cuts.
The Met Office will want to give a clear message about the likely temperatures for Monday before people finish work on Friday, but they will be cautious about issuing a red warning that far in advance. People in England should be adjusting plans around the likely high temperatures. You don't want to get caught in a train stuck in a middle of nowhere with no power because the heat has broken the network.
Here in Edinburgh we're wondering if we will have enough ice cream.
(I see the domain is available... the only downside is that it might attract Piers Corbyn...)
In the event, even WITH vaccines, 200,000 have died
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.