How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

rottenborough said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?

I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.

Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.

Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.

LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
of the last 6 remaining

Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?

Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
Braverman votes transfer to Truss

What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?

Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does

Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?

algarkirk said:

EPG said:

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Carnyx said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.

What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.

Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.

Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.

And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)

For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.

He makes a name out of being an expert on the wrongness and delusional nature of all those who believe in God. It's no worse than the rubbish people produce on the other side, but still rubbish. Good stuff is produced on both and all sides. RD is not it. He is using his science base to purport to be an expert on difficult bits of metaphysics.

MoonRabbit said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
of the last 6 remaining

Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?

Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
Braverman votes transfer to Truss

What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?

Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does

Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?

They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?

bondegezou said:

rottenborough said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?

I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.

Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.

Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.

LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.

Where she will be as successful as IDS and Howard with a position too far to the right for the electorate?

bondegezou said:

rottenborough said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

MoonRabbit said:

bondegezou said:

I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?

I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.

Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.

Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.

LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.

Where she will be as successful as IDS and Howard with a position too far to the right for the electorate?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

EPG said:

bondegezou said:

algarkirk said:

SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).

I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.

Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.

Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

EPG said:

bondegezou said:

algarkirk said:

SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).

I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.

Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.

Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

London is forecast to be 34 on Monday and 35 on Tuesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

IshmaelZ said:

EPG said:

IshmaelZ said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.

What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.

Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.

All getting very meta on here tonight

Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.

Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.

I am a major fan of judging ideas on their truth rather than their convenience. And as Dawkins pointed out if you can see the scam your genes are running on you, you can avoid it. For instance I am not a passionate and dedicated sperm donor, which is presumably what my genes would most like me to be. Are you?

IanB2 said:

pigeon said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.

See here

I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.

38.7C to beat…

Andy_JS said:

Betfair Sportsbook:

Mordaunt 1.62
Sunak 4.33
Truss 5.5
Badenoch 17
Tugendhat 51
Braverman 151

https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

Tres said:

algarkirk said:

ping said:

noneoftheabove said:

bondegezou said:

I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.

I agree.

I’m completely neutral on the market.

Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.

Pretty neutral except for a long term assumption that Rishi can't win, despite all the evidence that he can. IMHO to win he had to resign by February. He had one chance and blew it. The markets seem to have joined up with this view over the last day or two.

SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.

Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.

Yeah i just spent a while trying to find out about Mordaunt and she seems to have nothing about her in her decade or so of service. Interestingly my wife's best friend used to work at the same place as Mordaunt before she entered parliament and she didn't exactly leave a lasting legacy from the sound of it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it

I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.

rottenborough said:

Andy_JS said:

Betfair Sportsbook:

Mordaunt 1.62
Sunak 4.33
Truss 5.5
Badenoch 17
Tugendhat 51
Braverman 151

https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

Lay the favourite alert imho

MoonRabbit said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
of the last 6 remaining

Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?

Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
Braverman votes transfer to Truss

What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?

Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does

Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?

They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Carnyx said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.

What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.

Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.

Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.

And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)

For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

Casino_Royale said:

Badenoch gets my vote if she gets through.

Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.

Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.

Kemi.

numbertwelve said:

rottenborough said:

Andy_JS said:

Betfair Sportsbook:

Mordaunt 1.62
Sunak 4.33
Truss 5.5
Badenoch 17
Tugendhat 51
Braverman 151

https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

Lay the favourite alert imho

Rishi is still too short. Should be behind Truss IMHO.

Badenoch value. If Suella votes switch to her she could leapfrog Truss and win the momentum on the right.

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it

I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.

Go for it

I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?

My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people

Jonathan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:

I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.

Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?

Don’t be daft. When Starmer ran for leader the Corbynites owned the party, Corbyn is not currently a Labour MP. There is no prospect of the far left capturing the leadership. That’s a huge change. Starmer delivered that quietly, much as he slowly, but surely dismantled Boris. He is underestimated.

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

algarkirk said:

SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).

I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.

Also, I think she would beat Labour

She would save enough of the Red Wall while reassuring the shires and the south, I’ve no idea what she would do in Scotland but I think the Scones will like her, she’s got a bit of Ruth Davidson: no nonsense, military background

She also has a sharp, ready wit, I can see the duller Starmer floundering

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

ydoethur said:

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Carnyx said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.

What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.

Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.

Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.

And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)

For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

That's not quite true. It was distinctive and original, in the same way the philosophy of The Hobbit is distinctive and original.

Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.

It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

EPG said:

bondegezou said:

algarkirk said:

SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).

I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.

Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.

Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.

She believes in homeopathy.

A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.

But she may well win.

And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......

Belief in homeopathy should be instant disqualification for anybody in the running for leader of a major political party.....

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it

I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.

Go for it

I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?

My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people

Most of them on here.

algarkirk said:

ydoethur said:

algarkirk said:

Stuartinromford said:

Carnyx said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.

What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.

Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.

Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.

And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)

For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

That's not quite true. It was distinctive and original, in the same way the philosophy of The Hobbit is distinctive and original.

Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.

It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).

Barbarians well within the gates. I suppose Kant, Schopenhauer, Plantinga and Barth have all had their day. O tempora, O mores.

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.

Casino_Royale said:

Badenoch gets my vote if she gets through.

Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.

Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.

Kemi.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Badenoch gets my vote if she gets through.

Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.

Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.

Kemi.

Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.

Casino_Royale said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Badenoch gets my vote if she gets through.

Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.

Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.

Kemi.

Johnson was twice Mayor of London and had been Foreign Secretary.

Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.

Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.

Sunak has been Chancellor for 2.5 years. That's it. And he did fine. Weeks after he was appointed the pandemic came.

I think this "experience" thing is massively overblown. Cameron and Blair had zero and went in straight in from opposition. It's never easy to take over a government and I don't think it makes much difference if it's just after an election or midterm.

What matters far more is character.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Badenoch gets my vote if she gets through.

Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.

Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.

Kemi.

Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.

One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

WTF

I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it

I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.

Go for it

I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?

My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people

Most of them on here.

You jest, but one of the reasons I’ve been able to do this trip is because - if I get lonely - I can come on PB and find friendly voices, intelligent opinions and a sense of home (even when abroad). PB is a portable pub. So, thanks

LostPassword said:

turbotubbs said:

TimS said:

Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

My hat looks safe re 40 degrees though! Gonna be nasty hot. I’m at graduations on Tuesday in Bath abbey, and that does not sit well with suit plus academic robes...

I would have thought that the Abbey, as a large stone building, might be relatively cool on a heatwave. If not, I think it would be advisable to defer to the weather and make some adjustments to the dress code.

Take advantage of the fact that we can predict this six days in advance and prepare appropriately.

Casino_Royale said:

Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.

One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

WTF

I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong

CorrectHorseBattery said:

JosiasJessop said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:

I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.

Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?

If Starmer hadn't served under Corbyn, he wouldn't have been able to win the leadership and then destroy the left from the inside.

Anyone sane can see that was a good decision.