Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
Name recognition.
On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
Which is why neither should get it. Truss has sold her soul to the right of the party. She is as dishonest as Johnson, and I fear could be just as incompetent. The Tory Party needs someone that can unify after all the years of populist bollox
Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out
So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?
Is that how it really works though, from here?
It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
I agree Woolie. Truss top by about 15, Sunak and Penny very close to each other for the member vote.
I am not certain that Truss is going to impress in hustings and may look weaker as a result.
She has underperformed today. She doesn't have momentum so why would people fold for her?
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
Which is why neither should get it. Truss has sold her soul to the right of the party. She is as dishonest as Johnson, and I fear could be just as incompetent. The Tory Party needs someone that can unify after all the years of populist bollox
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
If most Hunt votes go to Tugendhat and Sunak and most Zahawi votes go to Mordaunt and Sunak that rather ends that strategy
Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
It serms very unlikely we will get a runaway winner in the final 3, certainly not of half the MPs i think so it seems certain we proceed to a vote of members
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles
Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.
I know its right wing in the tory context, but pretty sure most people would think they are all pretty right wing regardless.
Honestly, given Sunak seems to have been given the remainer label despite being a longstanding leaver, and none of them seem very divergent on policy, I don't know how they decide some ones are more right wing than the others.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.
The problem is I don’t think they’re one homogenous blob. Liz Truss is running on the experienced cabinet minister/Brexiteer shtick. Kemi isn’t noticeably talking about Brexit at all and is running on the fresh face/time for a change angle.
You could quite easily see transfers from Kemi to Penny, for instance.
No. I can’t. I see it as more tribal than that in terms of the votes supporting them.
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.
Hm. Is that what people on here said when Corbyn backed RLB for Labour leader? Don't think so.
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
While they're at it, can they also explain the one with "Keir" beating "Mordaunt" by the same margin.
I know that many PB Tories have taken to calling her "Penny" but you don't have to, no more than you had to call Corbyn "Jeremy".
Personally I just use surnames across the board.
I use what I can spell. I was off sick when they done spelling in school 🤭
That's why I got into trouble with my statement that "Hunt has made the cut" yesterday. That said I couldn't understand why anyone got offended by the word "hut"
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.
This type of thing isn't going to matter in reality. Few in the real world know who Laurence Fox or Toby Young are. It's only going increase the outrage amongst left wing people on Twitter, who wouldn't vote for Badenoch anyway.
Truss Badenoch Braverman combining is unlikely theres 18 votes between them, with xfers to come they are all perfectly reasonably expectant of being the top dog of the 3 of them, why would any stand aside for the others?
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.
To a degree. Awful people will likely end up backing decemt people sometimes.
But having the backing of those two, and the possibility they will be rewarded with Cabinet posts for it, is a very bad sign.
Putin appeasing quisling post: I have just discovered that Tarkovsky's Stalker is available in full, with subtitles, for free, on mosfilm's youtube channel
It serms very unlikely we will get a runaway winner in the final 3, certainly not of half the MPs i think so it seems certain we proceed to a vote of members
Eh? Unless the other candidates withdraw the rules mean they must go to the members (that might be what you meant)
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?
Surely not
He’s overseas next week apparently and then It’s Recess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar..
What Boris said was: "the next leader of my party may be elected by acclamation, so it is possible that this will be our last confrontation over this Dispatch Box."
Unless this was cover for his already knowing he’s going to be abroad on another feelgood visit to Ukraine?
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially -
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles
She’s in that position tonight.
I think Truss, and most of the rest of the cabinet that turned a blind eye to the antics of the idiot they supported to be PM, should take a one way trip to the backbenches
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially - Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?
Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories
I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?
Only after he took down his first tweet which he obviously thought sounded a bit racist. And that's me being very generous.
I too like to carefully explain my position after I make a damn fool of myself.
He then spent ages basically saying 'I was right' and 'only white people complained about it, Tory white people who are in a racist party'. And blocked some non-white commentators who disagreed with him.
So his more thoughtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.
I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.
The problem is I don’t think they’re one homogenous blob. Liz Truss is running on the experienced cabinet minister/Brexiteer shtick. Kemi isn’t noticeably talking about Brexit at all and is running on the fresh face/time for a change angle.
You could quite easily see transfers from Kemi to Penny, for instance.
No. I can’t. I see it as more tribal than that in terms of the votes supporting them.
That’s not particularly borne out in previous leadership votes.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially -
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
Given the two previous female leaders of the party were both deposed by the parliamentary party despite neither having lost an election, I wonder why some of the current candidates are bothering.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially - Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?
Does it...matter?
No it shouldn't. . The answer to the question is "if they are better, yes, but if they are worse no". IMO they are not better. Sunak is a lightweight who propped up the worst PM in history. The other two non white candidates are too inexperienced with one, and too in hoc with the right wing with the other
It serms very unlikely we will get a runaway winner in the final 3, certainly not of half the MPs i think so it seems certain we proceed to a vote of members
Eh? Unless the other candidates withdraw the rules mean they must go to the members (that might be what you meant)
Yes i meant unlikely we will get (say) Sunak 200, Mordaunt 78 Truss 75 and they both withdraw as the bulk are behind Sunak........ More likely we get 123 122 121 or some such nonsense! An IDS Clarke Portillo result
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially -
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
Why do Black and Brown people get Jolyon capitals, but white people don't?
And yet only getting that many will make whoever is up agaisnt him red hot favourite.
IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in
Everyone in a position to vote for Mordaunt as PM has seen things to suggest that she is good banter or (ugh) saucy. About 85% of voters will first encounter her as PM, two pay grades higher than her most senior full-time appointment, dealing with stubborn inflation and an unsympathetic world stage. Plus she is running away from her own record in a manner that suggests she is bringing in weak priors on how to govern. An empty vessel for others' desires like Sunak? I'd want to know who will be advising her before giving her the job.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories
I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?
Only after he took down his first tweet which he obviously thought sounded a bit racist. And that's me being very generous.
I too like to carefully explain my position after I make a damn fool of myself.
And did you see the supportive tweets he got from people of colour saying he shouldn't have deleted it?
Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership? I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to the membership would hardly answer that question.
He then spent ages basically saying 'I was right' and 'only white people complained about it, Tory white people who are in a racist party'. And blocked some non-white commentators who disagreed with him.
So his more thougtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.
I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.
He's a gigantic berk. If people want to waste their time defending a gigantic berk that's on them, but it won't change my mind about the man.
And yet only getting that many will make whoever is up agaisnt him red hot favourite.
IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
He then spent ages basically saying 'I was right' and 'only white people complained about it, Tory white people who are in a racist party'. And blocked some non-white commentators who disagreed with him.
So his more thougtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.
I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.
He's a gigantic berk. If people want to waste their time defending a gigantic berk that's on them, but it won't change my mind about the man.
I'm quite happy for him to lead challenges to the government - though he needs to be better at picking his targets as he's wasted plenty of time and money - but even if people loved every single challenge he's ever made he could still be a giant berk.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially -
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
Why do Black and Brown people get Jolyon capitals, but white people don't?
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
And did you see the supportive tweets he got from people of colour saying he shouldn't have deleted it?
Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership? I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to to the membership would hardly answer that question.
People don't generally vexatiously construe things as obvious as that. He provoked the reaction he got because his comments were unacceptable. No amount of after the fact justification changes that.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
One can assume that Zahawi, as a Boris Johnson supporter/apologist/traitor (take your pick) is going to be more favoured by those on the right. The rest of the swiveleyed types in the Party seem to be getting behind the ex-lib dem, so I guess they will transfer to her in the main.
And yet only getting that many will make whoever is up agaisnt him red hot favourite.
IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
The shear speed of the campaign has to have hurt some candidates (and helped others)...its literally political speed dating rather than an actual campaign...until we get to the final 2.
And did you see the supportive tweets he got from people of colour saying he shouldn't have deleted it?
Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership? I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to to the membership would hardly answer that question.
People don't generally vexatiously construe things as obvious as that. He provoked the reaction he got because his comments were unacceptable. No amount of after the fact justification changes that.
Your "analysis" does not account for the large amount of support he got. You have to dismiss a lot of voices of people of colour in order to get to the conclusion that the tweet was obviously wrong. Are you ready to do that?
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
I think it is more that we tend to look for an opposite to the current prime minister rather than party leader. Opposite does not have to be gender but it is probably helpful to for a party nominee to be the opposite of the leaving or current PM. Nearly everyone has some element of opposite to Boris (as Boris is a freak), but Mordaunt and Badenoch fit the bill the best of the candidates.
The potential Labour leadership candidates don't actually stack up well as opposites of Mordaunt. Nandy, Cooper and Reeves all feel a bit similar to Mordaunt. Rayner, Phillips, Streeting or Lammy fit okay.
Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.
I know its right wing in the tory context, but pretty sure most people would think they are all pretty right wing regardless.
Honestly, given Sunak seems to have been given the remainer label despite being a longstanding leaver, and none of them seem very divergent on policy, I don't know how they decide some ones are more right wing than the others.
I don't really think they do. My expectation is that there will be all sorts of reasons to swap from one candidate to another - personal relationships, articulate, perceptions of competence, or whether a given candidate might help a given MP retain his seat... And there is no single spectrum of policy positions, and different agendas will be important to different people. There won't be transfers en bloc from one candidate to another.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
One can assume that Zahawi, as a Boris Johnson supporter/apologist/traitor (take your pick) is going to be more favoured by those on the right. The rest of the swiveleyed types in the Party seem to be getting behind the ex-lib dem, so I guess they will transfer to her in the main.
Some of Zahawi’s votes will go to Mordaunt and Sunak, he is not ERG
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Of course if you needed a “it’s just one poll” health warning after all of your years on Twitter dot com, it’s worth noting that today’s efforts suggest 27% of Tory members want Mordaunt to lead them, while only 16% can actually identify her
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
I think Rishi 'Portilloed' some time ago - too slick, too early, too entitled, too obviously planned by PR people, too Portillo. Though he ought, unlike P to make the last two.
If he doesn't history could repeat itself and we end up with IDS in the form of Truss.
If you want to stop Rishi or Truss, Mordaunt is the one. If you want to stop Truss alone, Mordaunt and Rishi is the only sure way. You can't stop Mordaunt without risking having Truss. So think again.
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
Vague for Mordaunt on fiscal policy......only Sunak has one that makes any kind of sense, harsh to single out Mordaunt with the only word on the grid. I will add "Insane" to Zahawi's.
And why are Sunak and Hunt the same category on Brexit? Sunak was and as far as I am aware is a long standing hard Brexiteer quite content with no deal? Have the Tories finally admitted that Brexit for them is not about our relationship with the EU but simple fealty to Boris?
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
"How Penny Mordaunt fell foul of the nostalgia lobby An unlikely row about It Ain’t Half Hot Mum shows some in Tory ranks feel assailed by any critique of the past David Aaronovitch" (£)
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
I think there is a great mistake in putting right wing and authoritarian in the same bloc in this instance. I would suggest that David Davis is regarded as Right Wing on some cultural war issues but he is certainly not authoritarian - exactly the opposite in fact.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually
That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!
My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.
It has to be a woman.
A woman does not automatically mean election winner, see Theresa May, Julia Gillard, Hillary Clinton, Valerie Pecresse and Kim Campbell.
Streeting or Burnham would be better for Labour but if Starmer won the next general election there might not be another Labour leadership election for a decade
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories
I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?
Only after he took down his first tweet which he obviously thought sounded a bit racist. And that's me being very generous.
I too like to carefully explain my position after I make a damn fool of myself.
Watching some of the Twitter lefties go full racist, is one of the most amusing parts of the last few days. They really don’t like the idea that ethnic minorities might be conservative.
And did you see the supportive tweets he got from people of colour saying he shouldn't have deleted it?
Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership? I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to to the membership would hardly answer that question.
People don't generally vexatiously construe things as obvious as that. He provoked the reaction he got because his comments were unacceptable. No amount of after the fact justification changes that.
Your "analysis" does not account for the large amount of support he got. You have to dismiss a lot of voices of people of colour in order to get to the conclusion that the tweet was obviously wrong. Are you ready to do that?
Doesn't work as a defence because he deleted his original post. It's like Brown calling that woman a bigot, then claiming she wasn't, only for some of his defenders to say she was a bigot after all. Even if it was true, it didn't work because his own actions argued otherwise.
He obviously was worried enough that he felt he had to remove it, even if he tried to caveat why. He's regretted it, clearly, but that he took the step shows he knows the point he was making was not the thoughtful point he now claims it was.
I think people generally mean what they say. His actions show he meant the more inflammatory interpretation, rather than some point about ethnic minority representation. His reactions since, focusing on the original point, have shown his dishonesty in claiming he meant something deeper.
If he wanted to make a blunt point, and he has so many people supporting him, he need not have taken down the first tweet. He is very proud of not backing down from a righteous fight, yet he did initially back down on this one - that I find very telling indeed, since this is not someone who would casually do that, he is not one to be bullied away from his opinion.
More than that, he dismissed and blocked people who disagreed with him, assuming they are just partisans. I don't have a problem with him launching legal challenges, and plenty of others who disagreed with him were not Tory partisans either - so that this intelligent lawyer launched into such a defence shows he was on shaky grounds. He was not confident of defending his point, so instead he just whined that Tories were after him.
He might be right on so many issues and on the government, people will disagree about that, but at the very least his behaviour was that of a right arse, being dishonest about his intention and in his reaction to criticism on it, as well as evasive. He made a comment and then divert from it by pointing at some group that is even worse - maybe they are, but that doesn't speak to what he said, and how he has been dishonest about it.
I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
Why would that make his head explode?
His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
Sorry, which comment? Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
Essentially -
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
Given the two previous female leaders of the party were both deposed by the parliamentary party despite neither having lost an election, I wonder why some of the current candidates are bothering.
How depressing it is to see many on here obsessed by identity politics - labour must have a woman leader this time etc - We are talking about important jobs which should always go to the best person for that role
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
I don’t get the Sunak campaign. He is not continuity, but as the author of this economy, two years as Boris right hand and FPN to prove it, he cannot offer a fresh start.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually
That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!
My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.
It has to be a woman.
A woman does not automatically mean election winner, see Theresa May, Julia Gillard, Hillary Clinton, Valerie Pecresse and Kim Campbell.
Streeting or Burnham would be better for Labour but if Starmer won the next general election there might not be another Labour leadership election for a decade
God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
I think there is a great mistake in putting right wing and authoritarian in the same bloc in this instance. I would suggest that David Davis is regarded as Right Wing on some cultural war issues but he is certainly not authoritarian - exactly the opposite in fact.
Just be thankful they haven't used liberal as a synonym for good as some do.
Though you can get some real unliberal things through that way if you want I bet.
Comments
I know that many PB Tories have taken to calling her "Penny" but you don't have to, no more than you had to call Corbyn "Jeremy".
Personally I just use surnames across the board.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
Really unpleasant to have to deal with people with such hate driven attitudes
She has underperformed today. She doesn't have momentum so why would people fold for her?
Though as a knight I think we're supposed to call Starmer by his first name.
Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?
I too like to carefully explain my position after I make a damn fool of myself.
Honestly, given Sunak seems to have been given the remainer label despite being a longstanding leaver, and none of them seem very divergent on policy, I don't know how they decide some ones are more right wing than the others.
But having the backing of those two, and the possibility they will be rewarded with Cabinet posts for it, is a very bad sign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3hBLv-HLEc&ab_channel=Mosfilm
as are things like battleship Potemkin.
“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.
So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”
Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background
So his more thoughtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.
I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.
Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man
And the next is now very likely to be a woman.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
More likely we get 123 122 121 or some such nonsense! An IDS Clarke Portillo result
It's fucking weird
IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1547253592695898113?cxt=HHwWgoCwoby8-fgqAAAA
Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership?
I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to the membership would hardly answer that question.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
A lot of even admirable figures are also berks.
So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.
It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.
https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1547234439075450884?cxt=HHwWiMC-1crh8PgqAAAA
My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.
It has to be a woman.
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
You have to dismiss a lot of voices of people of colour in order to get to the conclusion that the tweet was obviously wrong. Are you ready to do that?
The potential Labour leadership candidates don't actually stack up well as opposites of Mordaunt. Nandy, Cooper and Reeves all feel a bit similar to Mordaunt. Rayner, Phillips, Streeting or Lammy fit okay.
Digging.
I suppose some are young enough to be his...
Which is possibly true given his record, but very tactless.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1547272726758379521
If he doesn't history could repeat itself and we end up with IDS in the form of Truss.
If you want to stop Rishi or Truss, Mordaunt is the one. If you want to stop Truss alone, Mordaunt and Rishi is the only sure way. You can't stop Mordaunt without risking having Truss. So think again.
And why are Sunak and Hunt the same category on Brexit? Sunak was and as far as I am aware is a long standing hard Brexiteer quite content with no deal? Have the Tories finally admitted that Brexit for them is not about our relationship with the EU but simple fealty to Boris?
Just what's needed in a PM right now.
Sunak or Truss or Mordaunt or Tugendhat or Badenoch or Braverman.
Maybe not Braverman
How would you feel if the candidates were Bunrham, Khan and Abbott?
Buggins' turn is never a good idea.
An unlikely row about It Ain’t Half Hot Mum shows some in Tory ranks feel assailed by any critique of the past
David Aaronovitch" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-misreads-the-comfort-of-nostalgia-vl8m5w7pf
Rishi can’t win. Tugendhat and Braverman don’t have the numbers.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1546514162439929857
"The Government is racist"
And a lot more than just the "picaninies" comment. There's a whole subthread of reasons.
Streeting or Burnham would be better for Labour but if Starmer won the next general election there might not be another Labour leadership election for a decade
WTF does that mean?
And does he think the plural of lens is lens?
He obviously was worried enough that he felt he had to remove it, even if he tried to caveat why. He's regretted it, clearly, but that he took the step shows he knows the point he was making was not the thoughtful point he now claims it was.
I think people generally mean what they say. His actions show he meant the more inflammatory interpretation, rather than some point about ethnic minority representation. His reactions since, focusing on the original point, have shown his dishonesty in claiming he meant something deeper.
If he wanted to make a blunt point, and he has so many people supporting him, he need not have taken down the first tweet. He is very proud of not backing down from a righteous fight, yet he did initially back down on this one - that I find very telling indeed, since this is not someone who would casually do that, he is not one to be bullied away from his opinion.
More than that, he dismissed and blocked people who disagreed with him, assuming they are just partisans. I don't have a problem with him launching legal challenges, and plenty of others who disagreed with him were not Tory partisans either - so that this intelligent lawyer launched into such a defence shows he was on shaky grounds. He was not confident of defending his point, so instead he just whined that Tories were after him.
He might be right on so many issues and on the government, people will disagree about that, but at the very least his behaviour was that of a right arse, being dishonest about his intention and in his reaction to criticism on it, as well as evasive. He made a comment and then divert from it by pointing at some group that is even worse - maybe they are, but that doesn't speak to what he said, and how he has been dishonest about it.
Seems doomed to me.
Mr Sunak wanted an indyref2 long ago ...
Power has many lenses? WTF does that even mean?
Power has many pens?
Power has many kens?
Though you can get some real unliberal things through that way if you want I bet.