@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
Why were Boris and Liz wearing white and green flowers on their jacket lapels?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and MPs Liz Truss and Ian Blackford were among those wearing white flower badges during the Prime Minister’s Question on Wednesday.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Is it then supposed to rain quite a bit England and Wales Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday as hot air mass retreats from something cooler?
The broad theme seems to be hot Sunday, stinking hot Monday and Tuesday, some relief (with a small chance of rain) from Wednesday onwards. Less oppressive in some very northerly or westerly parts. Scotland and Ireland look more comfortable.
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
So laying back my 66s Mordaunt @ 1.8 wasn't the worst feeling in the world.
And with my LAB hat on - C'mon Lizzie. You can still do it. Go go go you fabulous adult human female you. Come on you dropdead slamdunk political titan.
Up the Trussers!
The excitement has proved too much for one old geezer PBer 😔
Why were Boris and Liz wearing white and green flowers on their jacket lapels?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and MPs Liz Truss and Ian Blackford were among those wearing white flower badges during the Prime Minister’s Question on Wednesday.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
He makes a name out of being an expert on the wrongness and delusional nature of all those who believe in God. It's no worse than the rubbish people produce on the other side, but still rubbish. Good stuff is produced on both and all sides. RD is not it. He is using his science base to purport to be an expert on difficult bits of metaphysics.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
Surely an instance of him walking it the way he talks it?
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
What exactly are you suggesting?
The Communist Murdoch media are racists?
Murdoch doesn't own Sky anymore. He does own TalkTV though.
The channel that makes GB News look like a ratings success.....I wouldn't be surprised if it get shut down pretty quickly, not that anybody would notice other than the 5 people who watch it.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
She's done very well and will land a good job out of this. I don't believe she'll be PM (this time).
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
Wallace seems to not want to rock the boat publicly and it would be a stunner if any of the winners didn’t reappoint him, with a view to him being put forward for the NATO role thereafter.
But. There’s a but. Were I a Trad Tory MP, who is as concerned by national security as economics, I’d have tapped Wallace on the shoulder and asked who I might vote for, since he’s not running.
Wallace might then turn around to a handful of the trusted ones and stick the knife in Sunak, if reports of Sunak’s instincts on Ukraine are true.
So what then. If the final two is a choice between Truss and Mordaunt, does he intervene in any way? Only if he thinks Truss a bit of a helmet that shoots from the hip and is more concerned by self publicity than calm and clear diplomacy. Hard to know. That’s my impression from the outside but we can only guess how she conducts herself away from the cameras.
We’re going to get a big blow up within 24-48hrs soon of course and we don’t know against who. I suspect the betting value is with Truss right now.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Also, I think she would beat Labour
She would save enough of the Red Wall while reassuring the shires and the south, I’ve no idea what she would do in Scotland but I think the Scones will like her, she’s got a bit of Ruth Davidson: no nonsense, military background
She also has a sharp, ready wit, I can see the duller Starmer floundering
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.
LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.
Where she will be as successful as IDS and Howard with a position too far to the right for the electorate?
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
I am a major fan of judging ideas on their truth rather than their convenience. And as Dawkins pointed out if you can see the scam your genes are running on you, you can avoid it. For instance I am not a passionate and dedicated sperm donor, which is presumably what my genes would most like me to be. Are you?
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec, which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does
Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
He makes a name out of being an expert on the wrongness and delusional nature of all those who believe in God. It's no worse than the rubbish people produce on the other side, but still rubbish. Good stuff is produced on both and all sides. RD is not it. He is using his science base to purport to be an expert on difficult bits of metaphysics.
Again, the problem is the meta and potentially false claim "purport to be an expert". Writing a book about a bunch of topics doesn't make you an expert, no more than FT journalists are financial system experts. Who cares about his personality? The answer seems to be a lot of people.
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec, which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does
Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
And the sanction is what? The 1922 will disqualify the candidate who wants to drop out? As Boris himself said today, his successor might be elected by acclamation.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.
LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.
Where she will be as successful as IDS and Howard with a position too far to the right for the electorate?
Of course, jumping forward to make predictions about the Tory leadership contest after this one is pushing it somewhat. But, in principle, I'd agree that I don't see the electorate embracing Thatcherism 2.0 any time soon.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
Whatever happens she has nailed on a Cabinet position. Probably senior.
LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.
Where she will be as successful as IDS and Howard with a position too far to the right for the electorate?
Fine by me.
This country needs a prolonged period where the Tories are in opposition and try and work out why they exist beyond the culture war and bloody brexit.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Yes, this is due to a variation in the direction the plume takes - it's now forecast to hit Ireland first and then push east. This is why the day of peak warmth is later for London.
Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
She believes in homeopathy.
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
I agree.
I’m completely neutral on the market.
Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
Pretty neutral except for a long term assumption that Rishi can't win, despite all the evidence that he can. IMHO to win he had to resign by February. He had one chance and blew it. The markets seem to have joined up with this view over the last day or two.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.
Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.
Yeah i just spent a while trying to find out about Mordaunt and she seems to have nothing about her in her decade or so of service. Interestingly my wife's best friend used to work at the same place as Mordaunt before she entered parliament and she didn't exactly leave a lasting legacy from the sound of it.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
She believes in homeopathy.
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
Belief in homeopathy should be instant disqualification for anybody in the running for leader of a major political party.....
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.
See here
I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
I am a major fan of judging ideas on their truth rather than their convenience. And as Dawkins pointed out if you can see the scam your genes are running on you, you can avoid it. For instance I am not a passionate and dedicated sperm donor, which is presumably what my genes would most like me to be. Are you?
I reckon parental investment theories explain why not.
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.
See here
I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.
See here
I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.
38.7C to beat…
I will crank up the central heating if it will help break the record.
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.
See here
I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.
That is the Met Office model, latest run.
Hottest temperatures here in the Flatlands at low altitude and where the soil is driest. Great.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
I agree.
I’m completely neutral on the market.
Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
Pretty neutral except for a long term assumption that Rishi can't win, despite all the evidence that he can. IMHO to win he had to resign by February. He had one chance and blew it. The markets seem to have joined up with this view over the last day or two.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.
Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.
Yeah i just spent a while trying to find out about Mordaunt and she seems to have nothing about her in her decade or so of service. Interestingly my wife's best friend used to work at the same place as Mordaunt before she entered parliament and she didn't exactly leave a lasting legacy from the sound of it.
Her wikipedia prior to becoming an MP reads a bit like David Cameron's in a way, bit of politics work and some time in the real world doing PR stuff, but nothing really stand out.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
He makes a name out of being an expert on the wrongness and delusional nature of all those who believe in God. It's no worse than the rubbish people produce on the other side, but still rubbish. Good stuff is produced on both and all sides. RD is not it. He is using his science base to purport to be an expert on difficult bits of metaphysics.
Again, the problem is the meta and potentially false claim "purport to be an expert". Writing a book about a bunch of topics doesn't make you an expert, no more than FT journalists are financial system experts. Who cares about his personality? The answer seems to be a lot of people.
Anyone is allowed to write bad book on why they don't believe in God. But to take on, for example, Aquinas and do it badly is unworthy of someone who is academically excellent.
Being an expert on feudal land tenure does not make my bad book on string theory a good one, or an expert one.
Here's one tiny expert comment:
"Easter Orthodox theologian David Bentley Hart says that Dawkins "devoted several pages of The God Delusion to a discussion of the 'Five Ways' of Thomas Aquinas but never thought to avail himself of the services of some scholar of ancient and mediaeval thought who might have explained them to him ... As a result, he not only mistook the Five Ways for Thomas's comprehensive statement on why we should believe in God, which they most definitely are not, but ended up completely misrepresenting the logic of every single one of them, and at the most basic levels."
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
I am a major fan of judging ideas on their truth rather than their convenience. And as Dawkins pointed out if you can see the scam your genes are running on you, you can avoid it. For instance I am not a passionate and dedicated sperm donor, which is presumably what my genes would most like me to be. Are you?
I reckon parental investment theories explain why not.
I don't see that. Modern time sperm doning is so cost free that it doesn't detract from parental investment in babymamma offspring.
But anyway you are deriving ought statements from is statements. you ought not to do that, because it is wrong.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
She believes in homeopathy.
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
Who cares as long as she agrees to cut the corporation tax of hedge fund donors?
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.
Go for it
I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?
My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people, you can also chase the sun which is fun
It’s certainly not for everyone but if you like travel, yay
One more thing: it boosts your confidence. As my journey ends I can look back and think: wow, I did eight countries in 11 weeks, and some of them were tough and remote - mountainous Georgia, the wilds of Armenia - I lived out of a suitcase and still managed to work and I saw amazing things from Louisiana to Epirus, from coastal Turkey to the Caucasus, from Nashville to Tbilisi. i did it, I coped, it was fine, i rented cars, I went to mad places. DID IT
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Yes, this is due to a variation in the direction the plume takes - it's now forecast to hit Ireland first and then push east. This is why the day of peak warmth is later for London.
Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
Dublin forecast highs
Sunday 24 Monday 26 Tuesday 24
The horror heatwave is basically going to be a (mercifully brief) advertisement for the benefits of emigration to Ireland.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec, which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does
Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
I hope it has a caveat, in case once we get to the final two some massive scandal against one breaks.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Sunak can't win with the members, so Sunak-backers should be wary of a candidate they don't want as PM making the final 2 against him.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
That's not quite true. It was distinctive and original, in the same way the philosophy of The Hobbit is distinctive and original.
Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.
It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Yes, this is due to a variation in the direction the plume takes - it's now forecast to hit Ireland first and then push east. This is why the day of peak warmth is later for London.
Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
Dublin forecast highs
Sunday 24 Monday 26 Tuesday 24
The horror heatwave is basically going to be a (mercifully brief) advertisement for the benefits of emigration to Ireland.
The subsequent 9 months of squally heavy drizzle, not so much!
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Johnson was twice Mayor of London and had been Foreign Secretary.
Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.
Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.
After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?
And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.
You think she would be a more daunting opponent for Starmer?
I've zero idea. And no-one does. That's the problem with the top job: it's hard to tell if someone will do well until they are tested: unless they have done a similar top job. Hence why it was clear Johhnson wouldn't be a good PM after his time as mayor.
Starmer has proven fairly lacklustre against a clown like Boris. So yes, I think Mordaunt would be more 'daunting' for him than Johnson. But so would my left ankle. And that's mostly metal.
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
Where and by whom? Still no worse than an (admittedly pretty horrible) 35°C on Tuesday according to what I've seen.
See here
I'm having to squint to read that, but it looks like 40°C in the East Midlands and 35-38°C across most of England. I doubt that's correct - and will stick with the somewhat less Venusian prognostications of the Met Office for now - but we shall see.
May not happen, of course
But it now looks quite likely that “highest ever record temps” will be smashed in northern England
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.
Go for it
I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?
My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.
That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
Don’t be daft. When Starmer ran for leader the Corbynites owned the party, Corbyn is not currently a Labour MP. There is no prospect of the far left capturing the leadership. That’s a huge change. Starmer delivered that quietly, much as he slowly, but surely dismantled Boris. He is underestimated.
"There is no prospect of the far left capturing the leadership. "
No *immediate* prospect. I bet you'd have said the same thing in 2014...
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
I am a major fan of judging ideas on their truth rather than their convenience. And as Dawkins pointed out if you can see the scam your genes are running on you, you can avoid it. For instance I am not a passionate and dedicated sperm donor, which is presumably what my genes would most like me to be. Are you?
The passion for contraception and abortion would suggest that whatever game genes think they are up to, they have created in us an artificial and useless intelligence that can subvert their purposes.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Also, I think she would beat Labour
She would save enough of the Red Wall while reassuring the shires and the south, I’ve no idea what she would do in Scotland but I think the Scones will like her, she’s got a bit of Ruth Davidson: no nonsense, military background
She also has a sharp, ready wit, I can see the duller Starmer floundering
That's very much my view: articulate, clearly patriotic, not a loon, has had enough experience to not look like a complete roll of the dice.
I'm not particularly impressed with her record of rewriting the past - and she could easily have walked back the Turkish veto mistake* by saying that "while we technically had a veto, our public support, and assurances to the Turkish government, made vetoing their accession a practical impossibilty".
* I'm assuming it was a mistake and not a deliberate untruth.
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.
Go for it
I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?
My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people
Most of them on here.
You jest, but one of the reasons I’ve been able to do this trip is because - if I get lonely - I can come on PB and find friendly voices, intelligent opinions and a sense of home (even when abroad). PB is a portable pub. So, thanks
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)
You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec, which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does
Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
That's not quite true. It was distinctive and original, in the same way the philosophy of The Hobbit is distinctive and original.
Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.
It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).
Barbarians well within the gates. I suppose Kant, Schopenhauer, Plantinga and Barth have all had their day. O tempora, O mores.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
She believes in homeopathy.
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
Belief in homeopathy should be instant disqualification for anybody in the running for leader of a major political party.....
Only parties that require evidence for their policies…
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Johnson was twice Mayor of London and had been Foreign Secretary.
Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.
Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.
Sunak has been Chancellor for 2.5 years. That's it. And he did fine. Weeks after he was appointed the pandemic came.
I think this "experience" thing is massively overblown. Cameron and Blair had zero and went in straight in from opposition. It's never easy to take over a government and I don't think it makes much difference if it's just after an election or midterm.
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
I have to say your adventures have got me thinking about if I could potentially make of WFH (work from h'abroad) possible for a few months of the year.
Go for it
I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?
My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people
Most of them on here.
You meet people everywhere, as long as you are willing to chat.
I was in my local play park after school. I met a jetlagged lady who had just arrived to spend four years in the UK, having been based in Utah for the last few years. It was a fascinating conversation as our kids played:
Her initial thoughts on the UK: *) She was terrified about driving at the moment, though she said she'd get used to it. *) Our food prices are so much cheaper, and something about food tax. *) People are so friendly *) Utah was a beautiful dump. She could not wait to get out. Anywhere. *) The skies are so clear here; no pollution. (this surprised me) *) Rental accommodation is hard to get. Her family were AirBnB'ing for months until a rental place became available. *) Wasn't the UK supposed to be cold?
I put her mind to rest on the latter point. The normal weather service will be resumed soon enough ...
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
That's not quite true. It was distinctive and original, in the same way the philosophy of The Hobbit is distinctive and original.
Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.
It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).
Barbarians well within the gates. I suppose Kant, Schopenhauer, Plantinga and Barth have all had their day. O tempora, O mores.
Kant and Barth are included. If Schopenhauer and Plantinga are, they're in units I don't teach.
Edit - Kant is however kiddified beyond belief to the extent you wonder whether his views are being deliberately misrepresented insofar as they are comprehensible at all.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
Now that Penny Mordaunt is the front-runner, there will be a lot of MPs replaying her launch video and googling reviews of her book in order to try and work out just what is Pennyism and whether they actually support it. And they've only got till tomorrow when the next vote is due.
She believes in homeopathy.
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
Who cares as long as she agrees to cut the corporation tax of hedge fund donors?
Who cares as long as it a personal opinion and not foisted on the NHS?
Now, if she really wants to boil my piss, she could be a big supporter of feng shui....
So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)
You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning
WTF
I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
Owen Jones 🌹 @OwenJones84 · 4h I think it's a mistake for Labour to try and damage Rishi Sunak right now, to be honest, because it would be better for the party if he wins rather than Penny Mordaunt
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
It would at least be fascinating to see what gives in the clash between irresistible force (a committed small state, low tax ideology) and immovable object (in the form of an aged core vote that expects endless inflation busting pension increases and free NHS treatment and surgery for everything, but without the enormous waiting lists.) There's only so far you can get by getting rid of after school clubs and means testing winter fuel payments: if you're going to play the austerity game, especially with the state that the country is already in, you're going to have to be pretty brutal and upset a lot of people.
I see Fox News decided to claim the 10 year old Ohio rape victim was made up propaganda.
GOP talking heads have bought into thisnso much that the Attorney General of Ohio said there wad no evidence of this victim existing.
A dude was just arrainged with morning in court for the crime, he had already been arrest when the attorney genral said there was no evidence of any crime having taken place.
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.
I believe the correct PC gender neutral term is Titi* Tom....or for the gender fluids is Untie Tom.
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Johnson was twice Mayor of London and had been Foreign Secretary.
Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.
Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.
Sunak has been Chancellor for 2.5 years. That's it. And he did fine. Weeks after he was appointed the pandemic came.
I think this "experience" thing is massively overblown. Cameron and Blair had zero and went in straight in from opposition. It's never easy to take over a government and I don't think it makes much difference if it's just after an election or midterm.
What matters far more is character.
I don’t think Sunak or Johnson were any good at those jobs, but they did them. Cameron and Blair had both been Leader of the Opposition, which is a demanding executive role in its own right.
If you think character matters more, and if you think spouting culture war red meat indicates a good character, sure, go for Kemi, but she’s clearly has less experience than historical norms to be PM.
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.
This is a weird fantasy held by some on the Right. While there may be some Twitter lefties who say that, Labour won’t. Labour will say, “What is she doing about the cost of living? What is she doing about NHS waiting lists? What is she doing about climate change?” I’ve not seen any great answers from Kemi to those questions.
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Agreed. Additionally Labour will tie themselves in knots to try and denounce the Tories as racist with a black woman in power. I wonder what Uncle Tom is for women.
If you want to see racism, look at the Left’s reaction to someone from an ethnic minority expressing conservative views.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.
That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
If Starmer hadn't served under Corbyn, he wouldn't have been able to win the leadership and then destroy the left from the inside.
As someone who suffered years of pain that the NHS caused and utterly failed to sort out, I am going to say something controversial:
I think homeopathy is mostly rubbish, but there is a place for it. Much healing is mental, and if someone thinks it works, then it may help their mood if nothing else.
But it should be complementary, not the only 'cure' (see Steve Jobs), and it probably should not be available on the NHS, unless there is nothing else the NHS can do.
When you are in pain, and the doctors can do nothing to help you, you will try anything. (note: I did not try homeopathy, but I wish I had if it had made me *feel* better).
"How Penny Mordaunt fell foul of the nostalgia lobby An unlikely row about It Ain’t Half Hot Mum shows some in Tory ranks feel assailed by any critique of the past David Aaronovitch" (£)
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Johnson was twice Mayor of London and had been Foreign Secretary.
Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.
Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.
Sunak has been Chancellor for 2.5 years. That's it. And he did fine. Weeks after he was appointed the pandemic came.
I think this "experience" thing is massively overblown. Cameron and Blair had zero and went in straight in from opposition. It's never easy to take over a government and I don't think it makes much difference if it's just after an election or midterm.
What matters far more is character.
I don’t think Sunak or Johnson were any good at those jobs, but they did them. Cameron and Blair had both been Leader of the Opposition, which is a demanding executive role in its own right.
If you think character matters more, and if you think spouting culture war red meat indicates a good character, sure, go for Kemi, but she’s clearly has less experience than historical norms to be PM.
The nearest equivalent would be William Pitt the Younger, who had been Chancellor for 12 months (at that time very much the number two position in the Treasury) and subsequently a backbench MP before becoming PM in 1783.
He turned out OK, but the circumstances were to put it mildly very different.
Comments
It was bad bad lawmaking
The flower they were wearing has a green centre and white petals. It’s called the Srebrenica Flower and is a symbol of remembrance for the Srebrenica genocide.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/badges-boris-johnson-mps-wearing-pmqs-srebrenica-genocide-b1012112.html
Boris mentioned Srebrenica at the start of PMQs.
PS Truss is a hideous joke, look
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-factsheets/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-protest-powers-factsheet
40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)
That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)
LOTO after Jan 2025 seems highly likely now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZMUAd7OJc8
But. There’s a but. Were I a Trad Tory MP, who is as concerned by national security as economics, I’d have tapped Wallace on the shoulder and asked who I might vote for, since he’s not running.
Wallace might then turn around to a handful of the trusted ones and stick the knife in Sunak, if reports of Sunak’s instincts on Ukraine are true.
So what then. If the final two is a choice between Truss and Mordaunt, does he intervene in any way? Only if he thinks Truss a bit of a helmet that shoots from the hip and is more concerned by self publicity than calm and clear diplomacy. Hard to know. That’s my impression from the outside but we can only guess how she conducts herself away from the cameras.
We’re going to get a big blow up within 24-48hrs soon of course and we don’t know against who. I suspect the betting value is with Truss right now.
She would save enough of the Red Wall while reassuring the shires and the south, I’ve no idea what she would do in Scotland but I think the Scones will like her, she’s got a bit of Ruth Davidson: no nonsense, military background
She also has a sharp, ready wit, I can see the duller Starmer floundering
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abFJuqp867g
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
This country needs a prolonged period where the Tories are in opposition and try and work out why they exist beyond the culture war and bloody brexit.
Sunday 24
Monday 26
Tuesday 24
A fruitloop. Pretty. Looks good in a swimsuit. But a fruitloop. And a lying one at that.
But she may well win.
And this is the party that thinks it is moving on from Boris.......
GFS 12Z has 38C for Mon and Tue, with Tue being hottest in the east. Minimum Monday on night of 25C+!
Mordaunt 1.62
Sunak 4.33
Truss 5.5
Badenoch 17
Tugendhat 51
Braverman 151
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
Hottest temperatures here in the Flatlands at low altitude and where the soil is driest. Great.
Yes, she's inexperienced. And Boris and Rishi weren't? Both had done fuck all 5 years ago.
Kemi is fast, courageous, and smart, and will quickly learn on the job.
Kemi.
Being an expert on feudal land tenure does not make my bad book on string theory a good one, or an expert one.
Here's one tiny expert comment:
"Easter Orthodox theologian David Bentley Hart says that Dawkins "devoted several pages of The God Delusion to a discussion of the 'Five Ways' of Thomas Aquinas but never thought to avail himself of the services of some scholar of ancient and mediaeval thought who might have explained them to him ... As a result, he not only mistook the Five Ways for Thomas's comprehensive statement on why we should believe in God, which they most definitely are not, but ended up completely misrepresenting the logic of every single one of them, and at the most basic levels."
But anyway you are deriving ought statements from is statements. you ought not to do that, because it is wrong.
I am determined to do this as much as I can from now on; why not?
My kids are nearly grown. I positively ENJOY travelling alone - you get to do whatever you want but you also meet people on the way, new people, interesting people, you can also chase the sun which is fun
It’s certainly not for everyone but if you like travel, yay
One more thing: it boosts your confidence. As my journey ends I can look back and think: wow, I did eight countries in 11 weeks, and some of them were tough and remote - mountainous Georgia, the wilds of Armenia - I lived out of a suitcase and still managed to work and I saw amazing things from Louisiana to Epirus, from coastal Turkey to the Caucasus, from Nashville to Tbilisi. i did it, I coped, it was fine, i rented cars, I went to mad places. DID IT
Badenoch value. If Suella votes switch to her she could leapfrog Truss and win the momentum on the right.
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/1547239321861853184
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
2h
Sunak can't win with the members, so Sunak-backers should be wary of a candidate they don't want as PM making the final 2 against him.
Equally, it made him £130 million and counting. He must be one of the most financially successful writers of fiction alive today.
It does however say quite a lot about the appalling quality of the new A-levels and the ignorance of those who wrote them that he is one of the 'philosophers' required for study on the new philosophy and religious studies courses (along with another bizarre amateur, Albert Ross, whom they call by his pen name Frank Morrison).
Sunak had been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government and then Chief Secretary to the Treasury before becoming Chancellor.
Badenoch is around the same level of experience that Sunak had Sunak became Chancellor, arguably a bit less. She has far less experience than Sunak now.
Starmer has proven fairly lacklustre against a clown like Boris. So yes, I think Mordaunt would be more 'daunting' for him than Johnson. But so would my left ankle. And that's mostly metal.
But it now looks quite likely that “highest ever record temps” will be smashed in northern England
No *immediate* prospect. I bet you'd have said the same thing in 2014...
I'm not particularly impressed with her record of rewriting the past - and she could easily have walked back the Turkish veto mistake* by saying that "while we technically had a veto, our public support, and assurances to the Turkish government, made vetoing their accession a practical impossibilty".
* I'm assuming it was a mistake and not a deliberate untruth.
I think this "experience" thing is massively overblown. Cameron and Blair had zero and went in straight in from opposition. It's never easy to take over a government and I don't think it makes much difference if it's just after an election or midterm.
What matters far more is character.
I was in my local play park after school. I met a jetlagged lady who had just arrived to spend four years in the UK, having been based in Utah for the last few years. It was a fascinating conversation as our kids played:
Her initial thoughts on the UK:
*) She was terrified about driving at the moment, though she said she'd get used to it.
*) Our food prices are so much cheaper, and something about food tax.
*) People are so friendly
*) Utah was a beautiful dump. She could not wait to get out. Anywhere.
*) The skies are so clear here; no pollution. (this surprised me)
*) Rental accommodation is hard to get. Her family were AirBnB'ing for months until a rental place became available.
*) Wasn't the UK supposed to be cold?
I put her mind to rest on the latter point. The normal weather service will be resumed soon enough ...
Edit - Kant is however kiddified beyond belief to the extent you wonder whether his views are being deliberately misrepresented insofar as they are comprehensible at all.
Now, if she really wants to boil my piss, she could be a big supporter of feng shui....
WTF
I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
Owen Jones 🌹
@OwenJones84
·
4h
I think it's a mistake for Labour to try and damage Rishi Sunak right now, to be honest, because it would be better for the party if he wins rather than Penny Mordaunt
GOP talking heads have bought into thisnso much that the Attorney General of Ohio said there wad no evidence of this victim existing.
A dude was just arrainged with morning in court for the crime, he had already been arrest when the attorney genral said there was no evidence of any crime having taken place.
Absolutely mind boggling shitehousery.
* or Zizi, Bibi, Nini....
God to ALSEF: "You want the trains halted? Well, watch this...."
If you think character matters more, and if you think spouting culture war red meat indicates a good character, sure, go for Kemi, but she’s clearly has less experience than historical norms to be PM.
Anyone sane can see that was a good decision.
I think homeopathy is mostly rubbish, but there is a place for it. Much healing is mental, and if someone thinks it works, then it may help their mood if nothing else.
But it should be complementary, not the only 'cure' (see Steve Jobs), and it probably should not be available on the NHS, unless there is nothing else the NHS can do.
When you are in pain, and the doctors can do nothing to help you, you will try anything. (note: I did not try homeopathy, but I wish I had if it had made me *feel* better).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSjR9I73XkE
Congratulations to Kemi we will say, good for you and good luck.
He turned out OK, but the circumstances were to put it mildly very different.
Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.