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How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    It’s certainly a possibility and I wouldn’t rule out Truss/Sunak. However I think the chances of that have significantly reduced today because Sunak massively underperformed on the first ballot and Penny has the momentum. Transfers are more likely to go to Penny as the Stop Liz candidate now that Sunak is seen as toxic with the membership and not a runaway in the MP vote.

    Final 2 likelihood in order is IMHO:
    Penny v Liz
    Penny v Badenoch
    Liz v Rishi
    Rishi v Penny
    Rishi v Badenoch.

    I don't mind, and I certainly don't want to come over all @wulfrun_phil, but why is Badenoch alone known by her surname? Kemi is much shorter. You've missed a big opportunity to make life easier for yourself.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    glw said:

    Farooq said:

    glw said:

    Farooq said:

    And did you see the supportive tweets he got from people of colour saying he shouldn't have deleted it?

    Cards on the table, I think it was unwise to have tweeted what he did, in part because it was easy for people to vexatiously construe it as racist. There was a good question in there. Is there a significant amount of racism in the Conservative membership?
    I don't know the answer to that question, but having two people of colour being presented to to the membership would hardly answer that question.

    People don't generally vexatiously construe things as obvious as that. He provoked the reaction he got because his comments were unacceptable. No amount of after the fact justification changes that.

    Your "analysis" does not account for the large amount of support he got.
    You have to dismiss a lot of voices of people of colour in order to get to the conclusion that the tweet was obviously wrong. Are you ready to do that?
    Absolutely. I am quite happy to hold my own views about the acceptability of his tweet and his all-round berkishness. And for what it's worth I don't think that "a lot of voices of people of colour" agreeing with him makes him right, or the opinions of any other group for that matter. Not that his Twitter followers or the opinion of Twitter users in general is even remotely representative of anything useful.
    "Not that his Twitter followers or the opinion of Twitter users in general is even remotely representative of anything useful."
    Indeed. The same goes for people who reflexively see the worst possibly interpretation in what he says. Jolyon Maugham is a lightning rod for proxy Brexit wars, so the condemnation and support should be taken to be partially representative of that delightful front in the culture wars.

    The fact that some people are shouting "racist" who also put in their Twitter bios that "Enoch Powell was right" ought to make one think twice about it.
    Why is this all so meta? Why can't it be about what he said rather than how, who responded to it?

    The taunting of Sunak sounds so de haut en bas, you can tell from his name that Jolyon is one of nature's Etonians but debarred by geography (he's NZ). There's a bit in Styron's Confessions of Nat Turner where a field slave yells at the dolled up house slave Turner "Yo ass as black as mine" and Maugham sounds exactly like that: Hey jumped up brown boi, you think your owners gonna make you PM?
    Thems the breaks. I'm sorry for injecting a little nuance into the conversation.

    Some of us can sniff out the distinction between clumsy and malicious, even without having read this or that book. Indeed, personal experience goes a long way.
    I think that's a first for the Niver had no time for book larnin' meme on PB.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Cyclefree said:

    So the top 4 candidates are 1 man and 3 women.

    Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.

    She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.

    Truss - God knows what she stands for .

    Badenoch: has real potential but little experience

    Sunak: ho hum.

    It is a dismal choice.

    I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.

    Scalding your arm is not to be recommended although if it did not hurt, that would mean you'd killed your nerve cells which would be even worse.

    Mordaunt's modernisation twaddle was a play on Harold Wilson's white heat of technology. Quite what she actually meant by it is anyone's guess.

    As a punter, I do not have to work out which one I prefer, just which one is likely to win. As a citizen, my concern is that one of them will win.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    Zahawi’s will go Truss.
    Some might go Mordaunt.
    None will go Rishi.

    Hunt’s might go Tugendhat.
    Some might go Mordaunt or Rishi.
    None will go Truss.

    Braverman’s will go to Truss or Badenoch.
    None will go Rishi.

    Tugendhat’s might go Mordaunt, Rishi.
    Some could go to Badenoch.
    None will go to Truss.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Cookie said:

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    It’s certainly a possibility and I wouldn’t rule out Truss/Sunak. However I think the chances of that have significantly reduced today because Sunak massively underperformed on the first ballot and Penny has the momentum. Transfers are more likely to go to Penny as the Stop Liz candidate now that Sunak is seen as toxic with the membership and not a runaway in the MP vote.

    Final 2 likelihood in order is IMHO:
    Penny v Liz
    Penny v Badenoch
    Liz v Rishi
    Rishi v Penny
    Rishi v Badenoch.

    I don't mind, and I certainly don't want to come over all @wulfrun_phil, but why is Badenoch alone known by her surname? Kemi is much shorter. You've missed a big opportunity to make life easier for yourself.
    I’ll be honest, I’ve been interchangeable with first/last names for all the candidates over the last few days. It just comes out as I type it!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt

    The next round could be very close, but Rishi clearly needs to pull something out of the bag.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    You can see from my post above that MPs are as driven by antipathy to either Rishi or Truss as anything else.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt

    Were I a Hunt voter, I'd think why bother voting for Tugendhat, who's at the back of the pack and will be eliminated soon? I'd declare for one of the top three earlier, get in their good books.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Genes is voting party members, bodies is parties.

    You can't talk about evolution without being misunderstood, especially not when reading across to human behaviour, but really: TSG is the most interesting, important and just plain readable bit of pop sci ever to appear in print. and really short. People should read it, however antipathetic to book larnin' they are.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
    Bold, trying to confine RD to "his field of actual expertise" when he invented the word and idea of the meme in his spare time. Reminiscent of some pinwitted bishop who said that Dawkins didn't understand what a metaphor was, given that Dawkins wrote a book about natural selection and called it The Blind Watchmaker.

    If you want to leave Dawkins out of it you could think about the tragedy of the commons, or about Prisoner's Dilemma, to see the utter wrongness of the proposition under discussion.
    We are setting aside, for example, Kant and Nagel with some rapidity. As I say, other arguments are available.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022

    Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.

    It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.

    I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.

    Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.

    I may be overstating its importance but I still think the poll results will be making some Rishi backers nervous.

    Is there a point in getting Rishi through to the membership if he is doomed to fail against Liz Truss? Might you rather be thinking as a ‘soft’ Rishi supporter that you might be better taking a punt on Penny as she stands a better chance of winning in the final round?

    Certainly it would be crossing my mind.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Genes is voting party members, bodies is parties.

    You can't talk about evolution without being misunderstood, especially not when reading across to human behaviour, but really: TSG is the most interesting, important and just plain readable bit of pop sci ever to appear in print. and really short. People should read it, however antipathetic to book larnin' they are.
    Got a signed first edition ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt

    Were I a Hunt voter, I'd think why bother voting for Tugendhat, who's at the back of the pack and will be eliminated soon? I'd declare for one of the top three earlier, get in their good books.
    The plan was for the Rishi voters to lend enough votes to Hunt, to see him through tomorrow.

    But Rishi doesn’t have enough votes.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    Insofar as I can see, there are substantial groups of Tory MPs that appear to want to stop Sunak and Truss, and they should find it easier to vote tactically once the back markers have been eliminated. Would mitigate in favour of a Mordaunt vs Badenoch run-off, possibly?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Jonathan said:

    What doea Mourdant stand for. A week or so on I’m none the wiser. Union Jack, Thatcher reference, digs against Labour and some vague stuff about ships. Seems like a Cameronesque PR person and not much more to it. Tories like her because they think she’ll be effective against Labour.

    But nothing there beyond that. Am I missing something?

    No.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited July 2022
    Deleted. Duplicate.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the top 4 candidates are 1 man and 3 women.

    Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.

    She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.

    Truss - God knows what she stands for .

    Badenoch: has real potential but little experience

    Sunak: ho hum.

    It is a dismal choice.

    I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.

    I think only Tugendhat has the establishment creds and the MPs seem pretty ho hum about him. So Mordaunt it probably will be and honestly, I think that is (and should be) the final nail in the coffin of the Tory Party.

    Sorry to hear of your scald... Antiseptic Cooling Cream can be your friend here.
    I'm struggling as to why you think that.Several of their previous leaders in recent years haven't exactly been stellar.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    JACK_W said:

    My principal thoughts for round 2.

    Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.

    There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.

    PM4PM ... It's going to happen.

    Lord W has spoken! We're about to have our third female PM - Lets hope she's more successful than the last one...
  • pingping Posts: 3,724

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
    I agree.

    I’m completely neutral on the market.

    Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175
    edited July 2022

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
    I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175
    I should say I have zero money riding on this myself, just because I find all the betting sites too much of a hassle to use and to maximise profit you really need to keep an eye on everything...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093

    Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.

    It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.

    I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.

    Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.

    Sunak very likely gets through (he's not that far from 120), but that's not enough. The membership seem to hate him, because of the whole "nice stuff needs to be paid for" thing. So he has two winning paths. One is to be massively ahead at the end of the MP stage, well north of 200 votes. That doesn't look like happening. The other is to hope his rival in the membership ballot does a Leadsom; that's eminently possible but who knows?

    In which case, who takes up the other slot? Mordaunt or whoever emerges from the Truss/Badenoch/Braverman scramble?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
    If she gets the education ministry out of this or an equivalent, she is on her way up the greasy pole. That’s a great result for her.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the top 4 candidates are 1 man and 3 women.

    Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.

    She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.

    Truss - God knows what she stands for .

    Badenoch: has real potential but little experience

    Sunak: ho hum.

    It is a dismal choice.

    I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.

    She really isn’t “Continuity Boris”
    She has his failings of character ie her willingness to tell untruths and double down on them when challenged. Plus the contempt that such a default instinct shows for the audience.

    And her local corruption policy is appalling.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Jonathan said:

    JACK_W said:

    My principal thoughts for round 2.

    Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.

    There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.

    PM4PM ... It's going to happen.

    An empty vessel in which Tories can pour their dreams.
    Defeating SK "Really Interesting" S at the ballot box is a pretty achievable dream, mind.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moon Rabbit

    As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.

    I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.

    The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak

    Interesting and makes a lot of sense.

    Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.

    I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
    If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt

    Were I a Hunt voter, I'd think why bother voting for Tugendhat, who's at the back of the pack and will be eliminated soon? I'd declare for one of the top three earlier, get in their good books.
    The plan was for the Rishi voters to lend enough votes to Hunt, to see him through tomorrow.

    But Rishi doesn’t have enough votes.
    Nor enough Hunt 😆
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944

    Betfair next PM:-

    1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
    5.6 Liz Truss 17%
    22 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    44 Tom Tugendhat
    150 Suella Braverman
    160 Dominic Raab

    1.75 Penny Mordaunt 57%
    4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
    6.2 Liz Truss 16%
    22 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    70 Tom Tugendhat
    230 Suella Braverman
    300 Dominic Raab
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    Jonathan said:

    They took Thatcher, gave the brain and tank to Truss, the hair and dress sense to Mordaunt and the rich partner to Sunak.

    Funny, I don't recall Maggie ever appearing on telly in a swimsuit. But it was a long time ago, and my memory's not what it was.
    Past your bed time, but the bonkers blue power suits and hairspray is released before the watershed.
    Penny doesn't really dress like that - her dress sense is pretty drab from what I can see, not a power dresser like Thatch and nary a tennis ball necklace like May. She makes up for it by being very good looking and having a lot of hair - both natural traits. She also looks really sad a lot of the time. Dunno why.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,303
    In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

    (Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

    It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

    It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

    As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
    Her vote total was closer to Tugendhat's than Truss's. If she's a contender, why isn't he?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    In terms of electability they did pick Blair.

    Mordaunt I think might be May 2, Starmer Kinnock 2 with a shade of Brown and Wilson. If that is the choice at the next general election expect we go back to a hung Parliament

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Fairly leftish news sites don't want to contemplate a Black Female PM. Who would have thought?

    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.

    It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.

    I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.

    Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.

    I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    I’m a NZer and a Remainer and I find Jolyon’s behaviour inexplicably stupid.

    I think the issue starts with the fact his parents called him Jolyon.

    I didn't know you were a Nadhim Zahawi supporter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
    Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

    That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I’m a NZer and a Remainer and I find Jolyon’s behaviour inexplicably stupid.

    I think the issue starts with the fact his parents called him Jolyon.

    I didn't know you were a Nadhim Zahawi supporter.
    He should be charged for acronym theft, as well as his seeming financial shenanigans.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    There must be a few black swans left.

    Who will get the Ben Wallace endorsement? In case I missed it, that significant card has yet to be played.

    Still a crying shame he didn’t stand. He even reached my teenage sons.

    Wallace will endorse Mordaunt I expect, herself a former Defence Secretary
    Wallace will endorse Truss, who he has recently been working closely with, citing her greater experience for handling these times of crisis.

    Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    During my student days, Dawkins love of seeking to widen his gene pool was very well known. He was, for a while, "doinking" one of my tutors. As well as a number of some questionable interactions with graduate students...

    The late 80s/early 90s were a very different time
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.

    It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.

    I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.

    Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.

    I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
    Oh I agree.
    There is not much love for him.
    It’s just that there is probably - on balance - more hate for Liz, and nervousness about the rest.

    If he did make it through, he’d be quite a weak PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    MrEd said:

    Fairly leftish news sites don't want to contemplate a Black Female PM. Who would have thought?


    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
    What exactly are you suggesting?

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    The Blind Watchmaker is also very well written, while being entirely derivative in that it's an explicit re-telling of The Origin of the Species.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
    And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

    But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    Jonathan said:

    They took Thatcher, gave the brain and tank to Truss, the hair and dress sense to Mordaunt and the rich partner to Sunak.

    Funny, I don't recall Maggie ever appearing on telly in a swimsuit. But it was a long time ago, and my memory's not what it was.
    Past your bed time, but the bonkers blue power suits and hairspray is released before the watershed.
    Penny doesn't really dress like that - her dress sense is pretty drab from what I can see, not a power dresser like Thatch and nary a tennis ball necklace like May. She makes up for it by being very good looking and having a lot of hair - both natural traits. She also looks really sad a lot of the time. Dunno why.
    If we are being so ungallant as to discuss her appearance, I would also add that she wears far too much makeup. It looks disconcertingly like she has drawn a picture of a face on her face.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    MrEd said:

    Fairly leftish news sites don't want to contemplate a Black Female PM. Who would have thought?


    Andy_JS said:

    This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.

    "There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership
    The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round.
    By Harry Lambert" (£)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/eight-candidates-tory-leadership-ballot-list

    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
    What exactly are you suggesting?

    The Communist Murdoch media are racists?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    There must be a few black swans left.

    Who will get the Ben Wallace endorsement? In case I missed it, that significant card has yet to be played.

    Still a crying shame he didn’t stand. He even reached my teenage sons.

    Wallace will endorse Mordaunt I expect, herself a former Defence Secretary
    Wallace will endorse Truss, who he has recently been working closely with, citing her greater experience for handling these times of crisis.

    Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
    I am not sure Truss needs another Johnson acolite on her list. She really is tainted by association with Moggy and Dorries.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the top 4 candidates are 1 man and 3 women.

    Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.

    She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.

    Truss - God knows what she stands for .

    Badenoch: has real potential but little experience

    Sunak: ho hum.

    It is a dismal choice.

    I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.

    I think only Tugendhat has the establishment creds and the MPs seem pretty ho hum about him. So Mordaunt it probably will be and honestly, I think that is (and should be) the final nail in the coffin of the Tory Party.

    Sorry to hear of your scald... Antiseptic Cooling Cream can be your friend here.
    The final nail, adding to the recent final nails of: deposing Thatcher, ERM, Maastricht, 1997, 2001, 2005, IDS, coalition, Brexit, T May, in bed with the Orange faction, more Brexit, Borisgates (multiple final nail pile up);

    and there they are with sort of 4 in a row without actually losing an election, and a 45-50% change of leading the next government.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    I'm with Mordaunt.

    After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?

    And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.

    She's got my (non-existent) vote.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mord
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited July 2022

    Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.

    It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.

    I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.

    Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.

    I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
    Oh I agree.
    There is not much love for him.
    It’s just that there is probably - on balance - more hate for Liz, and nervousness about the rest.

    If he did make it through, he’d be quite a weak PM.
    With Penny and Rishi, I think too many MPs would be suspicious of them from the off, for a United party or quiet times.

    I don’t mean this as criticism of Rishi or Penny, but of the CPP and membership, too many swivel eyed loons.

    How quiet and on board Nad n Mogg if Rishi gets it?

    If Penny gets it, the Party’s Culture Warriors will park their tanks on her lawn before long.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
    Harold Wilson and Big Jim Callaghan followed by slow decline, false dawn (Blair), more moral but unsuitable successor, into the abyss and scrabbling out of abyss but only one hand on the ledge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Leon said:

    In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY

    (Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)

    It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful

    It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening

    As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it

    How annoying is it, not having the means to pay the day rates of the women you’re ogling?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
    Are they not really just restatements, though?

    In any case, The Blind Watchmaker was 1986. Some time ago.

    At least he did have something to dine out on, I suppose, which is better than many.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Simon,

    "John Smith?"

    Fair enough, and as Mr HYFUD remarked Blair was a winner, but I switched sides to the LDs then. Smith woud have been a contender had he lived.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I'm with Mordaunt.

    After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?

    And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.

    She's got my (non-existent) vote.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mord

    You think she would be a more daunting opponent for Starmer?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    My hat looks safe re 40 degrees though! Gonna be nasty hot. I’m at graduations on Tuesday in Bath abbey, and that does not sit well with suit plus academic robes...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
    And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

    But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
    For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    There must be a few black swans left.

    Who will get the Ben Wallace endorsement? In case I missed it, that significant card has yet to be played.

    Still a crying shame he didn’t stand. He even reached my teenage sons.

    Wallace will endorse Mordaunt I expect, herself a former Defence Secretary
    Wallace will endorse Truss, who he has recently been working closely with, citing her greater experience for handling these times of crisis.

    Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
    I am not sure Truss needs another Johnson acolite on her list. She really is tainted by association with Moggy and Dorries.
    Truss has sold her soul to the nutters for the chance of playing PM: one look at her backers and you see that she’s attracting all of the most dislikeable characters in the Tory Party under her roof.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175
    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    Good time for Tory leadership candidates to be talking about dropping net zero pledges!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

    So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

    Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

    This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

    I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
    Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
    of the last 6 remaining

    Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
    Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
    Braverman votes transfer to Truss
    What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
    old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
    which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
    Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does


    Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I must admit the impact on the political/cultural intersection of Kami as PM would be fantastically entertaining.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    There must be a few black swans left.

    Who will get the Ben Wallace endorsement? In case I missed it, that significant card has yet to be played.

    Still a crying shame he didn’t stand. He even reached my teenage sons.

    Wallace will endorse Mordaunt I expect, herself a former Defence Secretary
    Wallace will endorse Truss, who he has recently been working closely with, citing her greater experience for handling these times of crisis.

    Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
    I am not sure Truss needs another Johnson acolite on her list. She really is tainted by association with Moggy and Dorries.
    Oh Oxo - Wally is SO much more than “nother Johnson acolyte” he is the key endorsement for the big 3 in this.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2022



    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

    "Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."

    Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?

    I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.

    One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature. :)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    MrEd said:

    Fairly leftish news sites don't want to contemplate a Black Female PM. Who would have thought?


    Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.

    I see this meme of Labour and "the Left" (whatever that means) being "unable to deal with" Badenoch as Prime Minister is doing the rounds.

    I literally have no clue about what Badenoch thinks or for what she stands. I've yet to hear her offer anything approaching a coherent set of policies but that's not important because she's not talking to the likes of me (any more than any of the other candidates). Her audience is the Parliamentary Party and then the membership.

    The notion Labour (or "the Left") can't deal with a female black right-wing Prime Minister is antediluvian nonsense. She will of course be judged (assuming she navigates the sea of electoral hazard successfully) on what she does and what she proposes for the governance of the country and on that alone.

    Fine words butter no parsnips (as someone once said) and whoever becomes Prime Minister must expect scrutiny and to be held to account (and rightly so). Those of us not of a Conservative disposition aren't on her radar - perhaps we will be soon, perhaps not - and if and when that changes, we'll listen to her ideas and proposals with an open mind on the basis she can't be any worse than the current incumbent who, not so long ago, was being hailed as the greatest PM since Thatcher by some on here.

    Thatcher made it to three years past her third election win - Johnson didn't make it to three years past his first.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.

    Probably suspects he will be better received behind the scenes then over the airwaves.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
    Are they not really just restatements, though?

    In any case, The Blind Watchmaker was 1986. Some time ago.

    At least he did have something to dine out on, I suppose, which is better than many.
    They're both about evolution, but they're different books, and complement each other well.

    But, yes, from a while back!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?

    The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Given that Truss remained loyal to Johnson, she must enjoy her current role and want to see several things through. Perhaps she should do a deal with Badenoch to remain FS.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    Is it then supposed to rain quite a bit England and Wales Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday as hot air mass retreats from something cooler?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.

    He was enthusiastically clapping and glad-handing people at her launch.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    My hat looks safe re 40 degrees though! Gonna be nasty hot. I’m at graduations on Tuesday in Bath abbey, and that does not sit well with suit plus academic robes...
    I would have thought that the Abbey, as a large stone building, might be relatively cool on a heatwave. If not, I think it would be advisable to defer to the weather and make some adjustments to the dress code.

    Take advantage of the fact that we can predict this six days in advance and prepare appropriately.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    So laying back my 66s Mordaunt @ 1.8 wasn't the worst feeling in the world.

    And with my LAB hat on - C'mon Lizzie. You can still do it. Go go go you fabulous adult human female you. Come on you dropdead slamdunk political titan.

    Up the Trussers!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    GIN1138 said:

    JACK_W said:

    My principal thoughts for round 2.

    Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.

    There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.

    PM4PM ... It's going to happen.

    Lord W has spoken! We're about to have our third female PM - Lets hope she's more successful than the last onetwo.…
    ^
    |
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Spectator TV's first take on tonight's results in a 17 minute video.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSjR9I73XkE
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
    And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.

    But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
    For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.

    But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Last Tory PM’s;

    Man
    Woman
    Man
    Woman
    Man

    And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

    I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

    Betting tip:

    Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

    The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
    I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

    Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

    Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
    Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
    Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...

    The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
    All getting very meta on here tonight

    Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    Given that Truss remained loyal to Johnson, she must enjoy her current role and want to see several things through. Perhaps she should do a deal with Badenoch to remain FS.

    The rumours have always been that Liz Truss wants to be the first female chancellor. She also desperately wants to be PM - that much is obvious. I suspect that only an offer of CoE would be enough to make her withdraw, and even then only at the right time. She won’t be withdrawing to a junior minister who has less votes than her, certainly right now.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175



    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

    "Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."

    Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?

    I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.

    One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature. :)
    It was the gossip when I was at her college in Oxford. That is not exactly what one would call gold-plated evidence, no...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    US inflation figures.

    Oh dear.

    If GOP pick someone other than Trump they surely will win the WH?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Why were Boris and Liz wearing white and green flowers on their jacket lapels?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830



    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

    "Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."

    Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?

    I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.

    One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature. :)
    Surely an instance of him walking it the way he talks it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    TimS said:

    Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.

    Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.

    Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.

    Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?

    The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
    Yes, this is due to a variation in the direction the plume takes - it's now forecast to hit Ireland first and then push east. This is why the day of peak warmth is later for London.

    Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
    But, but, but ... Labour could have had Bryan Gould, the man Smith defeated (by harnessing the mighty SLAB)

    Bryan Gould of course resigned over Maastricht. His Euro-scepticism now seems uncannily prophetic.

    And what pithier a summary of Tony Blair than Bryan Gould's :"I always thought his real ambition was to be a pop star – he admired the rich and famous and aspired to join them."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    @hoffman_noa
    🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?


    @KemiBadenoch
    This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.

    If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.


    https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1547294743394131969
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    ping said:

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
    I agree.

    I’m completely neutral on the market.

    Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
    Pretty neutral except for a long term assumption that Rishi can't win, despite all the evidence that he can. IMHO to win he had to resign by February. He had one chance and blew it. The markets seem to have joined up with this view over the last day or two.

    SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.

    The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.

    Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited July 2022

    I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.

    I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.

    This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
    I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
    Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2022

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
    Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

    That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
    Don’t be daft. When Starmer ran for leader the Corbynites owned the party, Corbyn is not currently a Labour MP. There is no prospect of the far left capturing the leadership. That’s a huge change. Starmer delivered that quietly, much as he slowly, but surely dismantled Boris. He is underestimated.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831



    What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)

    "Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."

    Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?

    I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.

    One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature. :)
    It was the gossip when I was at her college in Oxford. That is not exactly what one would call gold-plated evidence, no...
    It matches, at least in tone, the stories going around my college when Dawkins was a member of the SCR. Seeing who he was with at High Table and so forth.

    He was known as Doinking Dawkins. For real
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Stolen from Twitter…Tory Beatles Songs.

    Marginal Mystery Tour
    Please Sleaze Me
    Stopping the Benefits of Mr Kite
    Backed by the USSR
    Here Comes the Sunak
    All You Need is Gove
    Fools on the Swill
    Pay Per Backbencher
    Happiness is a Warm Bung
    A Waste of Money
    Norwegian Deal (This Bird Has Flown)
    Lucy in the Sky with Non-Doms
    You’ve Got To Hide Your Tax Returns Away
    She’s Leaving Alec Douglas-Home

    🎶 “Phase 1, in which Boris gets his oats”.
This discussion has been closed.