Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.
She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.
Truss - God knows what she stands for .
Badenoch: has real potential but little experience
Sunak: ho hum.
It is a dismal choice.
I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.
Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.
She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.
Truss - God knows what she stands for .
Badenoch: has real potential but little experience
Sunak: ho hum.
It is a dismal choice.
I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.
I think only Tugendhat has the establishment creds and the MPs seem pretty ho hum about him. So Mordaunt it probably will be and honestly, I think that is (and should be) the final nail in the coffin of the Tory Party.
Sorry to hear of your scald... Antiseptic Cooling Cream can be your friend here.
I'm struggling as to why you think that.Several of their previous leaders in recent years haven't exactly been stellar.
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.
There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.
PM4PM ... It's going to happen.
Lord W has spoken! We're about to have our third female PM - Lets hope she's more successful than the last one...
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
I agree.
I’m completely neutral on the market.
Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
I should say I have zero money riding on this myself, just because I find all the betting sites too much of a hassle to use and to maximise profit you really need to keep an eye on everything...
Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.
It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.
I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.
Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.
Sunak very likely gets through (he's not that far from 120), but that's not enough. The membership seem to hate him, because of the whole "nice stuff needs to be paid for" thing. So he has two winning paths. One is to be massively ahead at the end of the MP stage, well north of 200 votes. That doesn't look like happening. The other is to hope his rival in the membership ballot does a Leadsom; that's eminently possible but who knows?
In which case, who takes up the other slot? Mordaunt or whoever emerges from the Truss/Badenoch/Braverman scramble?
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.
She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.
Truss - God knows what she stands for .
Badenoch: has real potential but little experience
Sunak: ho hum.
It is a dismal choice.
I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.
She really isn’t “Continuity Boris”
She has his failings of character ie her willingness to tell untruths and double down on them when challenged. Plus the contempt that such a default instinct shows for the audience.
Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.
There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.
PM4PM ... It's going to happen.
An empty vessel in which Tories can pour their dreams.
Defeating SK "Really Interesting" S at the ballot box is a pretty achievable dream, mind.
As I already said Mordaunt v Truss is the likely final 2 as Mordaunt plus Tugendhat and Hunt’s votes and Truss plus Badenoch and Braverman’s votes are both combined comfortably more than Sunak’s 1st round vote even if Sunak picks up a few Zahawi votes.
I now expect Sunak to get squeezed a la Portillo 2001. Hunt will join Tugendhat but if and when Tugendhat is knocked out they will send their votes en masse to Mordaunt as the best bet to stop Truss in the membership vote, Mordaunt also close to Hunt having backed him in 2019 for leader.
The vast majority of Badenoch and Braverman votes will transfer to Truss of course not Sunak
Interesting and makes a lot of sense.
Why do you think Zahawi voters will go to Sunak? Aren't Zahawi voters Boris lovers, who now all hate Sunak? I'd put them down for Truss.
I think some Hunt voters might go to Sunak.
If Sunak doesn’t pick up any Zahawi votes his campaign is even more dead than it looks, even if he picks up a few Hunt votes most of those now likely go to Tugendhat then Mordaunt
Were I a Hunt voter, I'd think why bother voting for Tugendhat, who's at the back of the pack and will be eliminated soon? I'd declare for one of the top three earlier, get in their good books.
The plan was for the Rishi voters to lend enough votes to Hunt, to see him through tomorrow.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
They took Thatcher, gave the brain and tank to Truss, the hair and dress sense to Mordaunt and the rich partner to Sunak.
Funny, I don't recall Maggie ever appearing on telly in a swimsuit. But it was a long time ago, and my memory's not what it was.
Past your bed time, but the bonkers blue power suits and hairspray is released before the watershed.
Penny doesn't really dress like that - her dress sense is pretty drab from what I can see, not a power dresser like Thatch and nary a tennis ball necklace like May. She makes up for it by being very good looking and having a lot of hair - both natural traits. She also looks really sad a lot of the time. Dunno why.
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
In terms of electability they did pick Blair.
Mordaunt I think might be May 2, Starmer Kinnock 2 with a shade of Brown and Wilson. If that is the choice at the next general election expect we go back to a hung Parliament
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.
It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.
I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.
Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.
I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
During my student days, Dawkins love of seeking to widen his gene pool was very well known. He was, for a while, "doinking" one of my tutors. As well as a number of some questionable interactions with graduate students...
Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.
It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.
I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.
Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.
I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
Oh I agree. There is not much love for him. It’s just that there is probably - on balance - more hate for Liz, and nervousness about the rest.
If he did make it through, he’d be quite a weak PM.
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
The Blind Watchmaker is also very well written, while being entirely derivative in that it's an explicit re-telling of The Origin of the Species.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
They took Thatcher, gave the brain and tank to Truss, the hair and dress sense to Mordaunt and the rich partner to Sunak.
Funny, I don't recall Maggie ever appearing on telly in a swimsuit. But it was a long time ago, and my memory's not what it was.
Past your bed time, but the bonkers blue power suits and hairspray is released before the watershed.
Penny doesn't really dress like that - her dress sense is pretty drab from what I can see, not a power dresser like Thatch and nary a tennis ball necklace like May. She makes up for it by being very good looking and having a lot of hair - both natural traits. She also looks really sad a lot of the time. Dunno why.
If we are being so ungallant as to discuss her appearance, I would also add that she wears far too much makeup. It looks disconcertingly like she has drawn a picture of a face on her face.
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Mordaunt is Continuity Boris: has difficulties with the truth and can't be trusted, talks bullshit (that modernisation twaddle was painful) and her main policy is to make it easy for MPs to become as corrupt as Italian politicians. And like Boris she is relying on polls to make her case.
She will shine for a while then crash and burn like him.
Truss - God knows what she stands for .
Badenoch: has real potential but little experience
Sunak: ho hum.
It is a dismal choice.
I have also managed to burn my right arm with boiling water. It hurts like hell.
I think only Tugendhat has the establishment creds and the MPs seem pretty ho hum about him. So Mordaunt it probably will be and honestly, I think that is (and should be) the final nail in the coffin of the Tory Party.
Sorry to hear of your scald... Antiseptic Cooling Cream can be your friend here.
The final nail, adding to the recent final nails of: deposing Thatcher, ERM, Maastricht, 1997, 2001, 2005, IDS, coalition, Brexit, T May, in bed with the Orange faction, more Brexit, Borisgates (multiple final nail pile up);
and there they are with sort of 4 in a row without actually losing an election, and a 45-50% change of leading the next government.
After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?
And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.
Contra to @HYUFD, I think you have to work quite hard to project a situation in which Rishi doesn’t get through.
It’s possible, along the lines he projects, but a lot of MPs will be looking nervously at Mordaunt’s inexperience and the lack of coherence underneath her rhetoric (per @Cyclefree). They’re also shit scared of Loony Liz.
I still think Mordaunt will win, but beyond that I will only venture that there is certainly no route through to the final two for Braverman. She (and the ERG) need to decide whether they are weighing in behind Badenoch or Truss.
Tugendhat’s hopes rest on some kind of Rishi collapse. Very unlikely. Badenoch needs wholehearted support from the ERG, or Truss to falter.
I disagree about Sunak. For a frontrunner it was an exceptionally weak showing. There's a chance that he picks up votes from Hunt, but he may even lose net votes in the next round.
Oh I agree. There is not much love for him. It’s just that there is probably - on balance - more hate for Liz, and nervousness about the rest.
If he did make it through, he’d be quite a weak PM.
With Penny and Rishi, I think too many MPs would be suspicious of them from the off, for a United party or quiet times.
I don’t mean this as criticism of Rishi or Penny, but of the CPP and membership, too many swivel eyed loons.
How quiet and on board Nad n Mogg if Rishi gets it?
If Penny gets it, the Party’s Culture Warriors will park their tanks on her lawn before long.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
Harold Wilson and Big Jim Callaghan followed by slow decline, false dawn (Blair), more moral but unsuitable successor, into the abyss and scrabbling out of abyss but only one hand on the ledge.
In a bayside restaurant near Tivat - the last night of my ODYSSEY
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
How annoying is it, not having the means to pay the day rates of the women you’re ogling?
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
Are they not really just restatements, though?
In any case, The Blind Watchmaker was 1986. Some time ago.
At least he did have something to dine out on, I suppose, which is better than many.
After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?
And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
My hat looks safe re 40 degrees though! Gonna be nasty hot. I’m at graduations on Tuesday in Bath abbey, and that does not sit well with suit plus academic robes...
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.
Who will get the Ben Wallace endorsement? In case I missed it, that significant card has yet to be played.
Still a crying shame he didn’t stand. He even reached my teenage sons.
Wallace will endorse Mordaunt I expect, herself a former Defence Secretary
Wallace will endorse Truss, who he has recently been working closely with, citing her greater experience for handling these times of crisis.
Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
I am not sure Truss needs another Johnson acolite on her list. She really is tainted by association with Moggy and Dorries.
Truss has sold her soul to the nutters for the chance of playing PM: one look at her backers and you see that she’s attracting all of the most dislikeable characters in the Tory Party under her roof.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Good time for Tory leadership candidates to be talking about dropping net zero pledges!
Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.
So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt
Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?
This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.
I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining
Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and Braverman votes transfer to Truss
What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec, which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does
Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
I see this meme of Labour and "the Left" (whatever that means) being "unable to deal with" Badenoch as Prime Minister is doing the rounds.
I literally have no clue about what Badenoch thinks or for what she stands. I've yet to hear her offer anything approaching a coherent set of policies but that's not important because she's not talking to the likes of me (any more than any of the other candidates). Her audience is the Parliamentary Party and then the membership.
The notion Labour (or "the Left") can't deal with a female black right-wing Prime Minister is antediluvian nonsense. She will of course be judged (assuming she navigates the sea of electoral hazard successfully) on what she does and what she proposes for the governance of the country and on that alone.
Fine words butter no parsnips (as someone once said) and whoever becomes Prime Minister must expect scrutiny and to be held to account (and rightly so). Those of us not of a Conservative disposition aren't on her radar - perhaps we will be soon, perhaps not - and if and when that changes, we'll listen to her ideas and proposals with an open mind on the basis she can't be any worse than the current incumbent who, not so long ago, was being hailed as the greatest PM since Thatcher by some on here.
Thatcher made it to three years past her third election win - Johnson didn't make it to three years past his first.
With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.
Probably suspects he will be better received behind the scenes then over the airwaves.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
Are they not really just restatements, though?
In any case, The Blind Watchmaker was 1986. Some time ago.
At least he did have something to dine out on, I suppose, which is better than many.
They're both about evolution, but they're different books, and complement each other well.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Given that Truss remained loyal to Johnson, she must enjoy her current role and want to see several things through. Perhaps she should do a deal with Badenoch to remain FS.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Is it then supposed to rain quite a bit England and Wales Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday as hot air mass retreats from something cooler?
With Gove's support for Badenoch, which is great, where is he? In passing, I've now seen David Davis give two interviews for PM, but nothing from Gove to support Kemi. Am I wrong? Feels like he just said he supported her and that was it.
He was enthusiastically clapping and glad-handing people at her launch.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
My hat looks safe re 40 degrees though! Gonna be nasty hot. I’m at graduations on Tuesday in Bath abbey, and that does not sit well with suit plus academic robes...
I would have thought that the Abbey, as a large stone building, might be relatively cool on a heatwave. If not, I think it would be advisable to defer to the weather and make some adjustments to the dress code.
Take advantage of the fact that we can predict this six days in advance and prepare appropriately.
So laying back my 66s Mordaunt @ 1.8 wasn't the worst feeling in the world.
And with my LAB hat on - C'mon Lizzie. You can still do it. Go go go you fabulous adult human female you. Come on you dropdead slamdunk political titan.
Tory MP's will now start to look for the final two and being seen to back either of those two. It's self interest and jobs for the boys and gals time. Mordaunt had the Big Mo and nothing succeeds like success.
There's going to be plenty of churn. Mordaunt will cruise to the final two. Might Sunak limp over the line or will the terminally dull Truss cobble together enough of the odds and sods to edge him out. Either way Mordaunt will comfortable see off either of Sunak or Truss in the members ballot.
PM4PM ... It's going to happen.
Lord W has spoken! We're about to have our third female PM - Lets hope she's more successful than the last onetwo.…
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Given that Truss remained loyal to Johnson, she must enjoy her current role and want to see several things through. Perhaps she should do a deal with Badenoch to remain FS.
The rumours have always been that Liz Truss wants to be the first female chancellor. She also desperately wants to be PM - that much is obvious. I suspect that only an offer of CoE would be enough to make her withdraw, and even then only at the right time. She won’t be withdrawing to a junior minister who has less votes than her, certainly right now.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
It was the gossip when I was at her college in Oxford. That is not exactly what one would call gold-plated evidence, no...
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
Surely an instance of him walking it the way he talks it?
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Weren't they saying a few days ago that it would be Sunday that would be a record?
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Yes, this is due to a variation in the direction the plume takes - it's now forecast to hit Ireland first and then push east. This is why the day of peak warmth is later for London.
Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
John Smith? He may not have been inspiring but he was dependable, solid, respectable.
But, but, but ... Labour could have had Bryan Gould, the man Smith defeated (by harnessing the mighty SLAB)
Bryan Gould of course resigned over Maastricht. His Euro-scepticism now seems uncannily prophetic.
And what pithier a summary of Tony Blair than Bryan Gould's :"I always thought his real ambition was to be a pop star – he admired the rich and famous and aspired to join them."
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
I think the prices are about right for the first time in the contest. Possibly Badenoch a back. The Hat still a lay at around 70-100, literally zero chance.
I agree.
I’m completely neutral on the market.
Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
Pretty neutral except for a long term assumption that Rishi can't win, despite all the evidence that he can. IMHO to win he had to resign by February. He had one chance and blew it. The markets seem to have joined up with this view over the last day or two.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.
Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.
That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
Don’t be daft. When Starmer ran for leader the Corbynites owned the party, Corbyn is not currently a Labour MP. There is no prospect of the far left capturing the leadership. That’s a huge change. Starmer delivered that quietly, much as he slowly, but surely dismantled Boris. He is underestimated.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
It was the gossip when I was at her college in Oxford. That is not exactly what one would call gold-plated evidence, no...
It matches, at least in tone, the stories going around my college when Dawkins was a member of the SCR. Seeing who he was with at High Table and so forth.
Marginal Mystery Tour Please Sleaze Me Stopping the Benefits of Mr Kite Backed by the USSR Here Comes the Sunak All You Need is Gove Fools on the Swill Pay Per Backbencher Happiness is a Warm Bung A Waste of Money Norwegian Deal (This Bird Has Flown) Lucy in the Sky with Non-Doms You’ve Got To Hide Your Tax Returns Away She’s Leaving Alec Douglas-Home
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
Why were Boris and Liz wearing white and green flowers on their jacket lapels?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and MPs Liz Truss and Ian Blackford were among those wearing white flower badges during the Prime Minister’s Question on Wednesday.
Wednesday evening heatwave update: models holding steady, indeed firming up that it will be extremely hot this coming Monday and probably Tuesday.
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
Is it then supposed to rain quite a bit England and Wales Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday as hot air mass retreats from something cooler?
The broad theme seems to be hot Sunday, stinking hot Monday and Tuesday, some relief (with a small chance of rain) from Wednesday onwards. Less oppressive in some very northerly or westerly parts. Scotland and Ireland look more comfortable.
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
All getting very meta on here tonight
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Of course it's meta. It's hard to deny the basic idea but it's not convenient for encouraging other people to behave altruistically (to me). So let's just say he's a wrungun.
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
So laying back my 66s Mordaunt @ 1.8 wasn't the worst feeling in the world.
And with my LAB hat on - C'mon Lizzie. You can still do it. Go go go you fabulous adult human female you. Come on you dropdead slamdunk political titan.
Up the Trussers!
The excitement has proved too much for one old geezer PBer 😔
Why were Boris and Liz wearing white and green flowers on their jacket lapels?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and MPs Liz Truss and Ian Blackford were among those wearing white flower badges during the Prime Minister’s Question on Wednesday.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
@hoffman_noa 🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
That's worked for other candidates in the past (e.g., Jim Hacker).
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
Not old, not new, not Boris, not a rebel, not right, not left, NOTA.
I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.
Betting tip:
Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.
The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.
I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.
Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.
Dawkins is simply adducing a widely known issue in game theory; and his application of it is most certainly part of what he is famous for. Unless one is a religious type.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
Can't say re the gossip, but quite right re the gene level.
Mrs Flatlander tells me he had lots of, er, groupies...
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
Bit unfair. The Blind Watchmaker and The Extended Phenotype I fouind good and thought-provoking.
And one really good idea is plenty for an academic career, if it's good enough and big enough. Plenty don't manage even that.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
For academics of philosophy and religion he would not even rank as an enthusiastic and well intentioned amateur. There is not a single distinctive or original contribution.
But they're not academic books, they're ideas books for the general public. In The Selfish Gene he lists out the game theorists and biologists who actually came up with the ideas. I doubt that he claims paternity of ideas in the books I haven't read about things he hasn't specialised in.
He makes a name out of being an expert on the wrongness and delusional nature of all those who believe in God. It's no worse than the rubbish people produce on the other side, but still rubbish. Good stuff is produced on both and all sides. RD is not it. He is using his science base to purport to be an expert on difficult bits of metaphysics.
What made Dawkins' name was applying this reasoning not just at the individual level, but at the gene level, thus the title of his most famous work. But the gene level doesn't really have a useful metaphor here! Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins. (He was briefly married to a second wife and had a daughter. I knew someone who knew the daughter -- claim to fame there, albeit not as good as my cat knowing Sinead O'Connor. Then Dawkins married Romana from Dr Who, because he wants to be Dr Who presumably, but they've since separated.)
"Oh, and also, he nicked the good ideas from his then wife, Marian Stamp Dawkins."
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
Surely an instance of him walking it the way he talks it?
This Harry Lambert bloke clearly isn't a fan of Kemi Badenoch.
"There are only four serious contenders left for the Tory leadership The real question is who of Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will face Rishi Sunak in the final round. By Harry Lambert" (£)
Sky News seem very reluctant to talk about her as a contender as well.
What exactly are you suggesting?
The Communist Murdoch media are racists?
Murdoch doesn't own Sky anymore. He does own TalkTV though.
The channel that makes GB News look like a ratings success.....I wouldn't be surprised if it get shut down pretty quickly, not that anybody would notice other than the 5 people who watch it.
I'm sure there's been lengthy analysis so far, but I've not caught up on 4 pages of discussion so far! I wonder whether there might be value in laying Mordaunt? Truss can pull votes from Badenoch (or vice versa if you want), and from Zahawi and Braverman. Mordaunt, on the other hand, is probably looking at Hunt and Tugendhat to get her additional votes. There's more votes on the libertarian, pro-Boris, pro-culture war right. Sunak has a good lead and will get transfers too. So maybe you get a Truss/Sunak final? Moreover, both Truss and Sunak would rather face the other than Mordaunt, so there could even be some jiggery-pokery with votes to achieve that.
I could be entirely wrong, of course! Mordaunt is making a play to represent all of the party, not just the One Nation faction.
This is more like it. You are saying some candidates, though ahead, appear close to their glass ceilings considering this electorate?
I'm not entirely sold on the glass ceiling analogy, but, yes. The bottom 4 candidates got 112 votes. It's where those votes go that matters now. I also, as you may have noticed, am very Kemisceptical, and that's another 40 votes up for grabs. Buy Truss, lay Mordaunt. No financial guarantee available. The value of your bet may go down as well as up.
Kemi has done brilliantly, bursting on the scene with those 40 votes, using the opportunity of spotlight brilliantly, and will carry so much interest and excitement in her on from here into her cabinet gig. Kemi is actually a bigger winner than Penny if Penny fails to make top 2.
She's done very well and will land a good job out of this. I don't believe she'll be PM (this time).
Comments
I’m completely neutral on the market.
Small green. Nothing impressive. I intend to go back in before (or during) the TV debates.
I think the issue starts with the fact his parents called him Jolyon.
Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.
In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.
In which case, who takes up the other slot? Mordaunt or whoever emerges from the Truss/Badenoch/Braverman scramble?
And her local corruption policy is appalling.
4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
6.2 Liz Truss 16%
22 Kemi Badenoch 4%
70 Tom Tugendhat
230 Suella Braverman
300 Dominic Raab
(Sob, but i hope to renew it in the autumn)
It’s big and busy. There are lots of local couples and families here. There are maybe 20 women under 30, of which half are strikingly beautiful
It really is quite a phenomenon, I’ve not seen its like, it must be some perfect storm of genes (Slavic, surely some Italian, a hint of Greek?), plus a very healthy Med diet and a climate/topography that encourages walking and swimming: everyone tans and swims in the evening
As the humble flint knapper, I merely sit and observe the world, this is a delightful corner of it
Mordaunt I think might be May 2, Starmer Kinnock 2 with a shade of Brown and Wilson. If that is the choice at the next general election expect we go back to a hung Parliament
The Selfish Gene was an interesting idea and well written if not entirely new. He's basically been dining out on it since.
That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
Just as importantly, does he have some examples of Rishi unhelpful in the battle v Putin?
The late 80s/early 90s were a very different time
There is not much love for him.
It’s just that there is probably - on balance - more hate for Liz, and nervousness about the rest.
If he did make it through, he’d be quite a weak PM.
But his stuff on religion is a good example of an expert in one field being utterly dumb in others. (Which is fine, most of us are dumb, as long as it's acknowledged.)
Whether we set the all time record or not is still up in the air. But Monday night we look odds on to beat the nocturnal minimum record. Possibly 25 or 26C in London.
Going to dominate the news for a couple of days along with some fairly nasty reports out of Western France and Iberia.
and there they are with sort of 4 in a row without actually losing an election, and a 45-50% change of leading the next government.
After all, 'Mord' in German means 'murder', and who doesn't have an aunt they don't like?
And as 'Mord' can also mean 'To Sleep with many guys/girls consistantly (Often).', she is obviously as highly-sexed as Leon, but unfortunately with relatives.
She's got my (non-existent) vote.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mord
I don’t mean this as criticism of Rishi or Penny, but of the CPP and membership, too many swivel eyed loons.
How quiet and on board Nad n Mogg if Rishi gets it?
If Penny gets it, the Party’s Culture Warriors will park their tanks on her lawn before long.
In any case, The Blind Watchmaker was 1986. Some time ago.
At least he did have something to dine out on, I suppose, which is better than many.
"John Smith?"
Fair enough, and as Mr HYFUD remarked Blair was a winner, but I switched sides to the LDs then. Smith woud have been a contender had he lived.
Isn't that quite a serious allegation to make against an academic? I'm not saying it is untrue, but I am curious as to your source/evidence ?
I sat next to RD once at a formal dinner.
One expects at least a brief nod towards courtesy at such dinners, but RD never talked to me once -- being engrossed by a women on his other side -- whose pectoral charms were her most distinguishing feature.
I literally have no clue about what Badenoch thinks or for what she stands. I've yet to hear her offer anything approaching a coherent set of policies but that's not important because she's not talking to the likes of me (any more than any of the other candidates). Her audience is the Parliamentary Party and then the membership.
The notion Labour (or "the Left") can't deal with a female black right-wing Prime Minister is antediluvian nonsense. She will of course be judged (assuming she navigates the sea of electoral hazard successfully) on what she does and what she proposes for the governance of the country and on that alone.
Fine words butter no parsnips (as someone once said) and whoever becomes Prime Minister must expect scrutiny and to be held to account (and rightly so). Those of us not of a Conservative disposition aren't on her radar - perhaps we will be soon, perhaps not - and if and when that changes, we'll listen to her ideas and proposals with an open mind on the basis she can't be any worse than the current incumbent who, not so long ago, was being hailed as the greatest PM since Thatcher by some on here.
Thatcher made it to three years past her third election win - Johnson didn't make it to three years past his first.
But, yes, from a while back!
The Met office forecast 36 daytime for Sunday last Sunday, but now they're saying 27.
Take advantage of the fact that we can predict this six days in advance and prepare appropriately.
And with my LAB hat on - C'mon Lizzie. You can still do it. Go go go you fabulous adult human female you. Come on you dropdead slamdunk political titan.
Up the Trussers!
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSjR9I73XkE
Nobody, least of all Dawkins, ever suggested that it isn't basically a popular account of Williams and Hamilton.
Oh dear.
If GOP pick someone other than Trump they surely will win the WH?
Relatively subtle differences at the large scale can have fairly large impacts if you only look at the forecast for a single location.
Bryan Gould of course resigned over Maastricht. His Euro-scepticism now seems uncannily prophetic.
And what pithier a summary of Tony Blair than Bryan Gould's :"I always thought his real ambition was to be a pop star – he admired the rich and famous and aspired to join them."
🚨 Understand the Online Safety Bill has been dropped off the draft version of government business for next week. They say it will be “back in the autumn”. But will it really?
@KemiBadenoch
This would be the right move. The bill is in no fit state to become law.
If I’m elected Prime Minister I will ensure the bill doesn’t overreach. We should not be legislating for hurt feelings.
https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1547294743394131969
SFAICS Penny is favourite for only one reason, and that a remarkable one: she isn't one of the others.
The lack of an affirmative case for her is startling; and the fact that Kemi is the only candidate (whether you agree or not) who can talk interestingly for 30 seconds is pretty strange.
Where is Rory when you need him. He was my MP and has gone missing when we need him.
He was known as Doinking Dawkins. For real
Marginal Mystery Tour
Please Sleaze Me
Stopping the Benefits of Mr Kite
Backed by the USSR
Here Comes the Sunak
All You Need is Gove
Fools on the Swill
Pay Per Backbencher
Happiness is a Warm Bung
A Waste of Money
Norwegian Deal (This Bird Has Flown)
Lucy in the Sky with Non-Doms
You’ve Got To Hide Your Tax Returns Away
She’s Leaving Alec Douglas-Home
🎶 “Phase 1, in which Boris gets his oats”.
It was bad bad lawmaking
The flower they were wearing has a green centre and white petals. It’s called the Srebrenica Flower and is a symbol of remembrance for the Srebrenica genocide.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/badges-boris-johnson-mps-wearing-pmqs-srebrenica-genocide-b1012112.html
Boris mentioned Srebrenica at the start of PMQs.
PS Truss is a hideous joke, look
I think Mordaunt has more going for her. She's a new face, but with some experience. She's not tied to Boris. She's not on the crazy right of the party, but isn't too far over to the left. Tory members like her back story. She can get the support of both an Andrea Leadsom and a Caroline Nokes. I can see why she's popular.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-factsheets/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-protest-powers-factsheet