How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

Northern_Al said:

I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.

Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.

Which is why neither should get it. Truss has sold her soul to the right of the party. She is as dishonest as Johnson, and I fear could be just as incompetent. The Tory Party needs someone that can unify after all the years of populist bollox

MoonRabbit said:

wooliedyed said:

MoonRabbit said:

wooliedyed said:

Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out

So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?

Is that how it really works though, from here?

It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?

I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her
Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly

I agree Woolie. Truss top by about 15, Sunak and Penny very close to each other for the member vote.

I am not certain that Truss is going to impress in hustings and may look weaker as a result.

She has underperformed today. She doesn't have momentum so why would people fold for her?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

While they're at it, can they also explain the one with "Keir" beating "Mordaunt" by the same margin.

I know that many PB Tories have taken to calling her "Penny" but you don't have to, no more than you had to call Corbyn "Jeremy".

Personally I just use surnames across the board.

We could call then Mr Starmer and Ms Mordaunt too.

Though as a knight I think we're supposed to call Starmer by his first name.

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

hmmmm

If most Hunt votes go to Tugendhat and Sunak and most Zahawi votes go to Mordaunt and Sunak that rather ends that strategy

moonshine said:

Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.

As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.

Hunt turned down being Defence Secretary.

Razedabode said:

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

hmmmm

What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.

I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles

She’s in that position tonight.

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories

I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?

Only after he took down his first tweet which he obviously thought sounded a bit racist. And that's me being very generous.

I too like to carefully explain my position after I make a damn fool of myself.

Andy_JS said:

Northern_Al said:

I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.

Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.

It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.

Hm. Is that what people on here said when Corbyn backed RLB for Labour leader? Don't think so.

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people

What he'd claim is that the Tories did not trust their members to select a non-white person, so they gave them no option.

Andy_JS said:

Northern_Al said:

I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.

Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.

It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.

This type of thing isn't going to matter in reality. Few in the real world know who Laurence Fox or Toby Young are. It's only going increase the outrage amongst left wing people on Twitter, who wouldn't vote for Badenoch anyway.

Andy_JS said:

Northern_Al said:

I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.

Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.

It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.

To a degree. Awful people will likely end up backing decemt people sometimes.

But having the backing of those two, and the possibility they will be rewarded with Cabinet posts for it, is a very bad sign.

wooliedyed said:

It serms very unlikely we will get a runaway winner in the final 3, certainly not of half the MPs i think so it seems certain we proceed to a vote of members

Eh? Unless the other candidates withdraw the rules mean they must go to the members (that might be what you meant)

DecrepiterJohnL said:

biggles said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

eek said:

Just thinking for 2 seconds.

Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs

And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.

Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?

Surely not

He’s overseas next week apparently and then It’s Recess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar..

What Boris said was: "the next leader of my party may be elected by acclamation, so it is possible that this will be our last confrontation over this Dispatch Box."

Unless this was cover for his already knowing he’s going to be abroad on another feelgood visit to Ukraine?

MoonRabbit said:

Razedabode said:

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

hmmmm

What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.

I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles

She’s in that position tonight.

I think Truss, and most of the rest of the cabinet that turned a blind eye to the antics of the idiot they supported to be PM, should take a one way trip to the backbenches

JohnO said:

moonshine said:

Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.

As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.

Hunt turned down being Defence Secretary.

Ah yes my apologies. Same same.

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people

Sorry, which comment?
Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?

Essentially -

“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.

So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”

Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background

Given the two previous female leaders of the party were both deposed by the parliamentary party despite neither having lost an election, I wonder why some of the current candidates are bothering.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people

Sorry, which comment?
Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?

Essentially - Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.

So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?

Does it...matter?

No it shouldn't. . The answer to the question is "if they are better, yes, but if they are worse no". IMO they are not better. Sunak is a lightweight who propped up the worst PM in history. The other two non white candidates are too inexperienced with one, and too in hoc with the right wing with the other

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

It serms very unlikely we will get a runaway winner in the final 3, certainly not of half the MPs i think so it seems certain we proceed to a vote of members

Eh? Unless the other candidates withdraw the rules mean they must go to the members (that might be what you meant)

Yes i meant unlikely we will get (say) Sunak 200, Mordaunt 78 Truss 75 and they both withdraw as the bulk are behind Sunak........
More likely we get 123 122 121 or some such nonsense! An IDS Clarke Portillo result

And yet only getting that many will make whoever is up agaisnt him red hot favourite.

IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1547253592695898113?cxt=HHwWgoCwoby8-fgqAAAA

kle4 said:

He then spent ages basically saying 'I was right' and 'only white people complained about it, Tory white people who are in a racist party'. And blocked some non-white commentators who disagreed with him.

So his more thougtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.

I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.

He's a gigantic berk. If people want to waste their time defending a gigantic berk that's on them, but it won't change my mind about the man.

kle4 said:

And yet only getting that many will make whoever is up agaisnt him red hot favourite.

IMO it will be very hard to keep Sunak out of the final 2. He only needs 20 transfers cumulative from ALL the rounds (including this one) to get 30% of the MPs' vote, which would have been enough in any of the 3 previous contested elections under the current rules. 32 and he's in

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1547253592695898113?cxt=HHwWgoCwoby8-fgqAAAA

There is no guarantee that he holds on to all 88 ... Topping the first round didn't work out for Portillo in 2001.

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually

glw said:

kle4 said:

He then spent ages basically saying 'I was right' and 'only white people complained about it, Tory white people who are in a racist party'. And blocked some non-white commentators who disagreed with him.

So his more thougtful clarification was clearly a load of bollocks - he meant what it appeared he meant, temporarily realised it looked bad and took it down, but regretted having done so.

I also go to my standard rule that if someone is meant to be a good communicator, I don't buy that they made such a hash of their intended point.

He's a gigantic berk. If people want to waste their time defending a gigantic berk that's on them, but it won't change my mind about the man.

I'm quite happy for him to lead challenges to the government - though he needs to be better at picking his targets as he's wasted plenty of time and money - but even if people loved every single challenge he's ever made he could still be a giant berk.

A lot of even admirable figures are also berks.

God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not

So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.

It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.


https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1547234439075450884?cxt=HHwWiMC-1crh8PgqAAAA

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

One can assume that Zahawi, as a Boris Johnson supporter/apologist/traitor (take your pick) is going to be more favoured by those on the right. The rest of the swiveleyed types in the Party seem to be getting behind the ex-lib dem, so I guess they will transfer to her in the main.

wooliedyed said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually

That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!

My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.

It has to be a woman.

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

I think it is more that we tend to look for an opposite to the current prime minister rather than party leader. Opposite does not have to be gender but it is probably helpful to for a party nominee to be the opposite of the leaving or current PM. Nearly everyone has some element of opposite to Boris (as Boris is a freak), but Mordaunt and Badenoch fit the bill the best of the candidates.

The potential Labour leadership candidates don't actually stack up well as opposites of Mordaunt. Nandy, Cooper and Reeves all feel a bit similar to Mordaunt. Rayner, Phillips, Streeting or Lammy fit okay.

kle4 said:

God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not

So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.

It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.


https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1547234439075450884?cxt=HHwWiMC-1crh8PgqAAAA

Relationship to Boris?

I suppose some are young enough to be his...

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories

I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?

His "thoughtful" thread that starts with 'the Tory party is racist, I have proved this before.. picaninies=PROOF'

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS of the last 6 remaining

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.

Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
of the last 6 remaining

Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?

kle4 said:

God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not

So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.

It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.


https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1547234439075450884?cxt=HHwWiMC-1crh8PgqAAAA

Vague for Mordaunt on fiscal policy......only Sunak has one that makes any kind of sense, harsh to single out Mordaunt with the only word on the grid. I will add "Insane" to Zahawi's.

And why are Sunak and Hunt the same category on Brexit? Sunak was and as far as I am aware is a long standing hard Brexiteer quite content with no deal? Have the Tories finally admitted that Brexit for them is not about our relationship with the EU but simple fealty to Boris?

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

God knows if anyone knows them all well enough to say if this is right or not

So, because this is my idea of having a good time on holiday, I did a chart of where the Conservative leadership candidates *appear* to sit on left/right economic issues or liberal/authoritarian social values.

It's clear that Braverman is the most right-wing on all counts.


https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1547234439075450884?cxt=HHwWiMC-1crh8PgqAAAA

Relationship to Boris?

I suppose some are young enough to be his...

Fiscal policy "vague".
Just what's needed in a PM right now.

ping said:

wooliedyed said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually

That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!

My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.

It has to be a woman.

I agree they need a woman, but not *any* woman.

How would you feel if the candidates were Bunrham, Khan and Abbott?

Buggins' turn is never a good idea.

londonpubman said:

The winner will be:

Sunak or Truss or Mordaunt or Tugendhat or Badenoch or Braverman.

Maybe not Braverman

It’s between 3: Mordaunt, Badenoch or Truss. That’s it now.

Rishi can’t win. Tugendhat and Braverman don’t have the numbers.

ping said:

wooliedyed said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually

That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!

My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.


It has to be a woman.

A woman does not automatically mean election winner, see Theresa May, Julia Gillard, Hillary Clinton, Valerie Pecresse and Kim Campbell.

Streeting or Burnham would be better for Labour but if Starmer won the next general election there might not be another Labour leadership election for a decade

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories

I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?

His "thoughtful" thread that starts with 'the Tory party is racist, I have proved this before.. picaninies=PROOF'

Bit more nuanced than that:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1546514162439929857
"The Government is racist"
And a lot more than just the "picaninies" comment. There's a whole subthread of reasons.

He also writes "Power has many lens of which colour is only one."

WTF does that mean?

And does he think the plural of lens is lens?

stodge said:

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

Razedabode said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people

Sorry, which comment?
Are you referring to the question he put to Sunak about whether the membership is "ready to select a brown man"?

Essentially -

“Despite an ethnically diverse list of candidates, including the impressive Sunak, the top two amongst the Conservative selectorate - Mordaunt and Truss - are both white.

So I ask, again: are members of the Conservative Party ready to select a Brown person as leader?”

Which is a shame, as I think quite clearly the Tories would or could choose someone from that background

Given the two previous female leaders of the party were both deposed by the parliamentary party despite neither having lost an election, I wonder why some of the current candidates are bothering.

How depressing it is to see many on here obsessed by identity politics - labour must have a woman leader this time etc - We are talking about important jobs which should always go to the best person for that role

I don’t get the Sunak campaign. He is not continuity, but as the author of this economy, two years as Boris right hand and FPN to prove it, he cannot offer a fresh start.

Seems doomed to me.

HYUFD said:

ping said:

wooliedyed said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Man, woman, man, man, woman, man actually

That is a fair point. I forgot about the, er, rather forgettable John Major!

My point still stands though. It’s simply untenable for labour not to choose a woman to succeed Keir.


It has to be a woman.

A woman does not automatically mean election winner, see Theresa May, Julia Gillard, Hillary Clinton, Valerie Pecresse and Kim Campbell.

Streeting or Burnham would be better for Labour but if Starmer won the next general election there might not be another Labour leadership election for a decade

May and Gillard won elections.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

Utter nonsense.

Yes, terrible tip. Labour has repeatedly shown it his no intention of electing a woman as leader.

May and Gillard lost their party’s majority

IshmaelZ said:

ping said:

Last Tory PM’s;

Man
Woman
Man
Woman
Man

And the next is now very likely to be a woman.

I think the pressure on labour to eventually replace Keir with a woman will be overwhelming.

Betting tip:

Lay all the men in the next labour leader market. Close to free money.

The fallacy of altruism exposed by Dawkins in Selfish Gene: individuals are not motivated by what would benefit the group overall. Ignore this advice.

I'm not sure this does justice to a really tricky problem in ethics and behavioural studies.

Dawkins's backing is scant recommendation outside his field of actual expertise, wholly unrelated to what he is famous for. To say the least other arguments are available.

Now for something a bit different

Seattle Times ($) - Danny Westneat: ‘A debacle’: Our troubled citizen initiative process is in a record drought

. . . . No one is quite sure why, but this fall will mark the third year in a row voters will find zero statewide citizens’ initiatives on their ballots. For this once insanely popular form of “direct democracy,” it’s the longest drought going back nearly a century, to the 1920s.

For the past three decades, through 2019, we averaged three issue initiatives on the ballot per year (either initiatives to the people or to the Legislature). There was only one year during those decades that had none.

What’s going on? The initiative was once a populist relief valve, so that hacked-off citizens could take their ideas around the stranglehold of the powerful and straight to the people. Later, the tool was itself hijacked by corporations and special interests, as well as twisted into a rent-seeking factory by mercenaries like Eyman.

Now it seems, the whole concept is momentarily defunct.

Last week the ACLU of Washington announced it had failed to collect enough signatures to qualify a big-ticket drug decriminalization initiative for this fall’s ballot. This was no longshot effort by scrappy volunteers — the group spent $2.7 million on consultants and pro signature-gatherers, and has racked up an additional $669,000 in debts, according to state records. . . .

Another high-stakes measure, to repeal the state’s new capital gains tax, was amply backed by superrich people but also folded last month after spending $510,000.

. . . There’s a labor shortage among itinerant canvassers, which — combined with voters not wanting to engage with clipboard-toting strangers during COVID — led to soaring costs of more than $10 per signature.

Bottom line: No direct democracy again this year — not even the bought and paid for kind. . . .

It could also be that this is the calm before the storm — a big storm, if a new initiative-promoting gambit gets its way.

. . .[T]wo outfits have risen on the right. One is called Restore Washington, the other Let’s Go Washington. Their joint drive is bankrolled mostly by a Kirkland businessman named Brian Heywood.

“I came here from the People’s Republic of California,” Heywood introduced himself to a conservative crowd recently at a Marysville church. “I’m an economic refugee. I came here to make money, and to be free.”

Unlike Eyman, Heywood isn’t trying to make bank off his initiatives — he’s already rich. He’s given more than $750,000 to GOP causes in the past five years, including $150,000 last year to try to repeal the state’s long-term care program (that also failed to get enough signatures).

But now Heywood is taking his make-money-and-be-free bravado and amping it all the way up to 11. In an environment where $3 million just failed to get a single measure on the ballot, his outfit, Let’s Go Washington, has started collecting signatures for 11 initiatives simultaneously. . . .

Luckyguy1983 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories

I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?

His "thoughtful" thread that starts with 'the Tory party is racist, I have proved this before.. picaninies=PROOF'

Bit more nuanced than that:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1546514162439929857
"The Government is racist"
And a lot more than just the "picaninies" comment. There's a whole subthread of reasons.

He also writes "Power has many lens of which colour is only one."

WTF does that mean?

And does he think the plural of lens is lens?

Well power does have many Lens. There's the leader of the TUC. The head judge off Strictly, he was very powerful. Lenny Henry is powerful in the world of comedy. Perhaps he's on to something.

Brilliant. Laughing out loud in public at that.

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

tlg86 said:

I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

Why would that make his head explode?

He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories

I don't think that represents his position at all. He did a pretty thoughtful thread about that tweet. Did you read it?

His "thoughtful" thread that starts with 'the Tory party is racist, I have proved this before.. picaninies=PROOF'

Bit more nuanced than that:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1546514162439929857
"The Government is racist"
And a lot more than just the "picaninies" comment. There's a whole subthread of reasons.

He also writes "Power has many lens of which colour is only one."

WTF does that mean?

And does he think the plural of lens is lens?

He did a typo? Throw him overboard!

What did he mean to write?

Power has many lenses? WTF does that even mean?

Power has many pens?

Power has many kens?

And what sort of a thoughtful sentence is this?

"I always reflect and, discuss, across the political spectrum."

Look at those fucking commas!