How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com
How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com
The actual results were
Comments
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I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.11
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Can't see much happening - everyone will go through to tomorrow's second round.TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
Tomorrow and over the weekend will be when candidates withdraw.0 -
Four horse race.0
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Mordaunt vs Starmer, love love love.0
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4th. Ish.0
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Mormentum0
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Time for a thread about voting systems perhaps?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
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Badenoch is closer in votes to Truss than Truss is to Mordaunt0
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I think now is the time to lay Penny.3
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I think she can overtake Truss tomorrow with votes from Braverman and Zahawi.williamglenn said:Badenoch is closer in votes to Truss than Truss is to Mordaunt
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Toby Young on GBNews ramping Kemi. She’s got a lot of momentum behind her.2
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I make that one non-voter.0
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How come Jeremy Hunt got less votes than the 20 nominations?0
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TT not pulling out:
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881
Tom Tugendhat
@TomTugendhat
This is a fantastic result.
I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.
Our country needs #ACleanStart0 -
He clearly got lent votesAndy_JS said:How come Jeremy Hunt got less votes than the 20 nominations?
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Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out5
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Boris to resign after demoting Raab, and appointing Bone Deputy PM ?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
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Betfair next PM:-
1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
5.6 Liz Truss 17%
22 Kemi Badenoch 4%
44 Tom Tugendhat
150 Suella Braverman
160 Dominic Raab0 -
Mordaunt certainly more likely to make it to the membership than either Badenoch or Truss on these figures.
With all the flaws of Sunak or Mordaunt that would not be the worst outcome. At
least with those two you feel you're cooking with gas, as the saying goes.1 -
Mike Dean, showing once more why he's a great referee.
Mike Dean says that fans should be able to listen to referees and VARs debating decisions — and believes that the change will come in the near future.
Dean, 54, who retired from refereeing at the end of last season after 22 years in the Premier League to become a full-time VAR, believes that the clubs will get behind the idea too, especially if they can charge for the service.
“I think in three or four years it will come in and we will be able to hear what is being said between the referee and the VAR,” he told The Times.
“David Dein, when he was running Arsenal, said when headsets were introduced years ago that he wanted fans to be able to pay £5 or £10 to listen in. The clubs would go for that, if they can make money from charging for headsets to listen in, and it could be another thing for advertising.
“They have it in snooker and rugby and we will definitely see it come in in the next five years. I think it’s a good thing if you can explain your decision, but I think it should only be when the referee is talking to the VAR that you are listening in. It shouldn’t be every single thing you say.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mike-dean-let-fans-listen-to-referees-conversation-with-var-95c99tsck1 -
Can we send OGH on holiday?Nigelb said:
Boris to resign after demoting Raab, and appointing Bone Deputy PM ?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
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Sorry Mike, but the thread is completely wrong. The big plunge in Mordaunt’s odds happened earlier today - in reaction to (as far as we can tell) - the yougov poll of Tory party members.
The betdata chart isn’t real-time.
Sorry, I’m not being an arse for the sake of it. These threads (and comments) form a useful archive for punters for future con leadership contests.3 -
No, more likely that some of his backers switched to Penny or Tom.Slackbladder said:
He clearly got lent votesAndy_JS said:How come Jeremy Hunt got less votes than the 20 nominations?
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Versus “expectations”, I’d say
Underperformed:
Sunak
Truss
Over performed
Mordaunt
Badenoch6 -
Nah, a great referee/football fan would want to scrap VAR. His argument for VAR is that if we don't have it, then our top refs wouldn't get to ref in Europe and international matches. That wouldn't bother me!TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Dean, showing once more why he's a great referee.
More importantly, you do know that Dean was a ballroom dancer when he was younger...0 -
Prediction tomorrow
Mordaunt top
Then
Sunak
Badenoch
Truss
Tugendhat last
Braverman drops out beforehand?1 -
Is it the Maldives or Skegness that are heavily booked?MattW said:
Can we send OGH on holiday?Nigelb said:
Boris to resign after demoting Raab, and appointing Bone Deputy PM ?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
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IF Truss could get all of Badenoch and Braverman she is guaranteed to be in the Final.
But can she do that?
IF she can, then Penny may need to get some MPs to switch to her from Sunak.0 -
In sad news Esther McVey won't be deputy prime minister in a Jeremy Hunt government.8
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Daniel Kawczynski (Hunt supporter) comes close to saying he will switch to Penny, on Sky.1
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Yes, that's right. The markets barely budged after the actual resultping said:Sorry Mike, but the thread is completely wrong. The big Jump for Mordaunt happened earlier today - in reaction to (as far as we can tell) - the yougov poll of Tory party members.
The betdata chart isn’t real-time.3 -
Sorry for asking dumb questions if this has already been covered. But Is there another minimum cut off for the next round abd if so do we know what it is? Or is it just the lowest goes out now.0
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Then it becomes a race to “stop Mordaunt”, the “Stop Sunak” having already workedLeon said:Prediction tomorrow
Mordaunt top
Then
Sunak
Badenoch
Truss
Tugendhat last
Braverman drops out beforehand?
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Tories can't be trusted?Andy_JS said:How come Jeremy Hunt got less votes than the 20 nominations?
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Either the ERG is a lot smaller than previously advertised, or their ability to act as a unified voting bloc has been severely overestimated.2
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Lowest goes out.Richard_Tyndall said:Sorry for asking dumb questions if this has already been covered. But Is there another minimum cut off for the next round abd if so do we know what it is? Or is it just the lowest goes out now.
They should really have set a bar of 40 votes.
Rough on Tugendhat but as an ex-soldier he should understand that his duty to his country may require personal sacrifice.1 -
A problem for Truss is the risk of falling behind Badenoch.
If most of Braverman switches to Badenoch then Badenoch could well get ahead of Truss, resulting in a Final 3 of Sunak, Mordaunt and Badenoch.2 -
I think it's just lowest gets eliminatedRichard_Tyndall said:Sorry for asking dumb questions if this has already been covered. But Is there another minimum cut off for the next round abd if so do we know what it is? Or is it just the lowest goes out now.
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I don't think they can stop her reaching the final two now. The question is who she facesCarlottaVance said:
Then it becomes a race to “stop Mordaunt”, the “Stop Sunak” having already workedLeon said:Prediction tomorrow
Mordaunt top
Then
Sunak
Badenoch
Truss
Tugendhat last
Braverman drops out beforehand?
Truss, Sunak or Badenoch?0 -
I guess the 30 limit is still in place for tomorrow, but realistically it's bottom gets knocked out.Richard_Tyndall said:Sorry for asking dumb questions if this has already been covered. But Is there another minimum cut off for the next round abd if so do we know what it is? Or is it just the lowest goes out now.
In 2001 there was a tie for bottom so that re-voted the next day.1 -
I did so earlier.tlg86 said:I think now is the time to lay Penny.
There's always more twist and turns in these events.
We haven't started the live tv car crash debates.0 -
Saying his local association and membership is pushing for Penny.numbertwelve said:Daniel Kawczynski (Hunt supporter) comes close to saying he will switch to Penny, on Sky.
Could be a lot of MPs are hearing the same and would back up the polling. Will be interesting to see how many do switch to her.0 -
Braverman really ought to pull out before the next round because she's going to get zero per cent of Hunt's votes and maybe only one or two from Zahawi at best.2
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Braverman also over performed. I'd not expected her to make the threshold. I think we were expecting three or four to fail to make the threshold, rather than two.CarlottaVance said:Versus “expectations”, I’d say
Underperformed:
Sunak
Truss
Over performed
Mordaunt
Badenoch1 -
Cry me a riverAndy_JS said:In sad news Esther McVey won't be deputy prime minister in a Jeremy Hunt government.
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Charles Walker on Sky News seems to think a bar will be set for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50. He used to be on the 1922 Committee himself.0
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Just thinking for 2 seconds.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?1 -
Most of her votes will go to Badenoch. Could be the difference between Kemi going through and knocked out.Andy_JS said:Braverman really ought to pull out before the next round because she's going to get zero per cent of Hunt's votes and maybe only one or two from Zahawi at best.
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No way can Tug or Braverman win this. So surely, even if they stay in the race, they will start leaching support now.
Tory MPs will realise only 4 can realistically win this and will vote accordingly. Either for their preferred one of the 4 or to try and prevent one of the 4 that they don't want making the final 2.1 -
London Bridge and the appointment of Lord Grieve as PM by the magic circle?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't wish to alarm PBers but I'm looking after PB tonight.
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Suggestion the threshold tomorrow will be 40 - 50Leon said:Prediction tomorrow
Mordaunt top
Then
Sunak
Badenoch
Truss
Tugendhat last
Braverman drops out beforehand?0 -
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step0
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I'd have thought most of them would go to Truss, or at least many of them.Sandpit said:
Most of her votes will go to Badenoch. Could be the difference between Kemi going through and knocked out.Andy_JS said:Braverman really ought to pull out before the next round because she's going to get zero per cent of Hunt's votes and maybe only one or two from Zahawi at best.
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They like to make it up as they go along. I thought that was the opposite of "fair play".tlg86 said:
That's odd. I'd have thought it would be standard rules from here.Andy_JS said:Charles Walker on Sky News seems to think a bar will be set for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50. He used to be on the 1922 Committee himself.
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Bob Stewart MP on Times Radio saying he’s backing Penny M because of her bravery. Asked for an example he says she bellyflopped a dive on the reality show Splash and then came back to dive again.
https://twitter.com/charlotteivers/status/15472539948499599417 -
Or going off to Ukraine. Dominic Raab v Mouth Almighty (my mum's name for her, not mine!).eek said:Just thinking for 2 seconds.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?0 -
Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
·
18m
Blimey that’s a close vote between Sunak and Mordaunt and Truss - I think there’s potentially been some overestimation about how sewn up the race is for Sunak
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Not on PB there hasn't been.
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I did not.tlg86 said:
Nah, a great referee/football fan would want to scrap VAR. His argument for VAR is that if we don't have it, then our top refs wouldn't get to ref in Europe and international matches. That wouldn't bother me!TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Dean, showing once more why he's a great referee.
More importantly, you do know that Dean was a ballroom dancer when he was younger...0 -
How much churn are we likely to see?Andy_JS said:Braverman really ought to pull out before the next round because she's going to get zero per cent of Hunt's votes and maybe only one or two from Zahawi at best.
With Braverman and Tugendhat clearly going to be also-rans, might their backers start pondering whether to back Truss/Mordaunt to increase their chances of getting to the run-off? Or indeed, backing Sunak to try and consolidate his lead?
Truss needs to do a lot better if she's not to look like a loser.2 -
Please give him his full title of TIT.tlg86 said:TT not pulling out:
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881
Tom Tugendhat
@TomTugendhat
This is a fantastic result.
I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.
Our country needs #ACleanStart1 -
Surely noteek said:Just thinking for 2 seconds.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?0 -
As long as Truss doesn’t get through (or Braveman), I’ll be a happy Tory gent.8
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Just heard 40 - 50 threshold suggested on Sky by Sir Charles WalkerRichard_Tyndall said:Sorry for asking dumb questions if this has already been covered. But Is there another minimum cut off for the next round abd if so do we know what it is? Or is it just the lowest goes out now.
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Shows how far Boris De Pfeffel has moved the party that Hunt was the Count Binface candidate of the 82
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BETTING VALUE?
WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?
She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt4 -
Whisper it, but there must be a decent chance that we get Penny v Kemi.1
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Rishi now 1.41 to make Final 2 - was 1.15 yesterday.
So real doubt over whether me makes Final 2 - even though 88 already has him fairly close (likely that 110 ish makes it in practice).0 -
Why does Charles Walker pronounce result reesowt?0
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Was Boris the 358th MP?0
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Totally agree. If I had loads of spare dough (which I don't) I'd be putting it all on her.Leon said:BETTING VALUE?
WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?
She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt1 -
I postulated a mostly joking version of that earlier. What would be the point? He is no longer leader of the Tory Partyeek said:Just thinking for 2 seconds.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?0 -
BREAKING Tom Tugendhat is in talks NOW with Jeremy Hunt about an endorsement, I am told
Sources close to Tugendhat's campaign say they coudl pick up 25 of the 43 votes won by Hunt and Zahawi at the first round.
Could be enough to see Tugendhat into the weekend.#ToryLeadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547255770751934467
He thinks Tory MPs will do as Hunt suggests?
Bless.4 -
To lose a VONC he would have to get his MPs to vote no confidence or abstain en masse.tlg86 said:
Or going off to Ukraine. Dominic Raab v Mouth Almighty (my mum's name for her, not mine!).eek said:Just thinking for 2 seconds.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?
Why would they when they are all enjoying a leadership race?
The Queen would deny him a dissolution in this situation anyway.
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Big question is whether he loses votes between today and tomorrow. It must be possible.MikeL said:Rishi now 1.41 to make Final 2 - was 1.15 yesterday.
So real doubt over whether me makes Final 2 - even though 88 already has him fairly close (likely that 110 ish makes it in practice).
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The really fascinating thing would be if any of the top candidates actually go down in the next round. Maybe because they didn't do as well as expected this time.1
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Boris moved the party by purging most of the sane MPs.wooliedyed said:Shows how far Boris De Pfeffel has moved the party that Hunt was the Count Binface candidate of the 8
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Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.
Badenoch: 40
Braverman: 32
Truss: 50
Zahawi:25
147
I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.
Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.
Tell me I am wrong.0 -
I liked the old format with multiple rounds of voting on the same day.0
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This Conservative leadership is election is now @PennyMordaunt's to lose - if she can get in front of Party members. @ConHome's survey earlier this week suggests she would defeat all comers at that stage.
https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/15472554402827182081 -
Late afternoon all
Just finished another absurdly hot afternoon's work and if the forecasts are right, so the song has it "I ain't seen nothin' yet".
Then there were six - I wouldn't read too much into numbers. For a party which sneers at tactical voting, the parliamentarians seems able to do it in spades.
I presume the plan will be to set a higher threshold for the next ballot - say 100 (seriously, probably 50) which should get us from six to three or four.0 -
Maybe it was the MP who's not allowed to attend Parliament due to a police investigation. They could have voted by proxy but might have decided not to.Sunil_Prasannan said:Was Boris the 358th MP?
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Also a Hunt endorsement might not exactly propel him forwards. But I think it is correct that he could pick up a decent chunk of the eliminated votes.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING Tom Tugendhat is in talks NOW with Jeremy Hunt about an endorsement, I am told
Sources close to Tugendhat's campaign say they coudl pick up 25 of the 43 votes won by Hunt and Zahawi at the first round.
Could be enough to see Tugendhat into the weekend.#ToryLeadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547255770751934467
He thinks Tory MPs will do as Hunt suggests?
Bless.1 -
No doubt OGH will use this as another indication that Boris only defeats discredited candidates.wooliedyed said:Shows how far Boris De Pfeffel has moved the party that Hunt was the Count Binface candidate of the 8
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Prediction:
Top three next time:
Sunak
Mordaunt
Badenoch
Right will consolidate around Kemi I am thinking now.
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Name recognition is a big factor in those sort of votes.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
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One of Hunts supporters has already declared for PennyCarlottaVance said:BREAKING Tom Tugendhat is in talks NOW with Jeremy Hunt about an endorsement, I am told
Sources close to Tugendhat's campaign say they coudl pick up 25 of the 43 votes won by Hunt and Zahawi at the first round.
Could be enough to see Tugendhat into the weekend.#ToryLeadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547255770751934467
He thinks Tory MPs will do as Hunt suggests?
Bless.1 -
I for one am quite happy if we decide the next round of this leadership competition by live televised diving.CarlottaVance said:Bob Stewart MP on Times Radio saying he’s backing Penny M because of her bravery. Asked for an example he says she bellyflopped a dive on the reality show Splash and then came back to dive again.
https://twitter.com/charlotteivers/status/15472539948499599412
