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How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com
How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com
The actual results were
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Tomorrow and over the weekend will be when candidates withdraw.
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881
Tom Tugendhat
@TomTugendhat
This is a fantastic result.
I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.
Our country needs #ACleanStart
1.78 Penny Mordaunt 56%
4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
5.6 Liz Truss 17%
22 Kemi Badenoch 4%
44 Tom Tugendhat
150 Suella Braverman
160 Dominic Raab
With all the flaws of Sunak or Mordaunt that would not be the worst outcome. At
least with those two you feel you're cooking with gas, as the saying goes.
Mike Dean says that fans should be able to listen to referees and VARs debating decisions — and believes that the change will come in the near future.
Dean, 54, who retired from refereeing at the end of last season after 22 years in the Premier League to become a full-time VAR, believes that the clubs will get behind the idea too, especially if they can charge for the service.
“I think in three or four years it will come in and we will be able to hear what is being said between the referee and the VAR,” he told The Times.
“David Dein, when he was running Arsenal, said when headsets were introduced years ago that he wanted fans to be able to pay £5 or £10 to listen in. The clubs would go for that, if they can make money from charging for headsets to listen in, and it could be another thing for advertising.
“They have it in snooker and rugby and we will definitely see it come in in the next five years. I think it’s a good thing if you can explain your decision, but I think it should only be when the referee is talking to the VAR that you are listening in. It shouldn’t be every single thing you say.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mike-dean-let-fans-listen-to-referees-conversation-with-var-95c99tsck
The betdata chart isn’t real-time.
Sorry, I’m not being an arse for the sake of it. These threads (and comments) form a useful archive for punters for future con leadership contests.
Underperformed:
Sunak
Truss
Over performed
Mordaunt
Badenoch
More importantly, you do know that Dean was a ballroom dancer when he was younger...
Mordaunt top
Then
Sunak
Badenoch
Truss
Tugendhat last
Braverman drops out beforehand?
But can she do that?
IF she can, then Penny may need to get some MPs to switch to her from Sunak.
They should really have set a bar of 40 votes.
Rough on Tugendhat but as an ex-soldier he should understand that his duty to his country may require personal sacrifice.
If most of Braverman switches to Badenoch then Badenoch could well get ahead of Truss, resulting in a Final 3 of Sunak, Mordaunt and Badenoch.
Truss, Sunak or Badenoch?
In 2001 there was a tie for bottom so that re-voted the next day.
There's always more twist and turns in these events.
We haven't started the live tv car crash debates.
Could be a lot of MPs are hearing the same and would back up the polling. Will be interesting to see how many do switch to her.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?
Tory MPs will realise only 4 can realistically win this and will vote accordingly. Either for their preferred one of the 4 or to try and prevent one of the 4 that they don't want making the final 2.
https://twitter.com/charlotteivers/status/1547253994849959941
@jessicaelgot
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18m
Blimey that’s a close vote between Sunak and Mordaunt and Truss - I think there’s potentially been some overestimation about how sewn up the race is for Sunak
===
Not on PB there hasn't been.
With Braverman and Tugendhat clearly going to be also-rans, might their backers start pondering whether to back Truss/Mordaunt to increase their chances of getting to the run-off? Or indeed, backing Sunak to try and consolidate his lead?
Truss needs to do a lot better if she's not to look like a loser.
WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?
She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt
So real doubt over whether me makes Final 2 - even though 88 already has him fairly close (likely that 110 ish makes it in practice).
Sources close to Tugendhat's campaign say they coudl pick up 25 of the 43 votes won by Hunt and Zahawi at the first round.
Could be enough to see Tugendhat into the weekend.#ToryLeadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547255770751934467
He thinks Tory MPs will do as Hunt suggests?
Bless.
Why would they when they are all enjoying a leadership race?
The Queen would deny him a dissolution in this situation anyway.
Badenoch: 40
Braverman: 32
Truss: 50
Zahawi:25
147
I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.
Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.
Tell me I am wrong.
https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1547255440282718208
Just finished another absurdly hot afternoon's work and if the forecasts are right, so the song has it "I ain't seen nothin' yet".
Then there were six - I wouldn't read too much into numbers. For a party which sneers at tactical voting, the parliamentarians seems able to do it in spades.
I presume the plan will be to set a higher threshold for the next ballot - say 100 (seriously, probably 50) which should get us from six to three or four.
Top three next time:
Sunak
Mordaunt
Badenoch
Right will consolidate around Kemi I am thinking now.