politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
Comments
-
BetFred - Turnout
Over 85% 4/7
80 - 85% 9/4
75 - 80% 5/10 -
I thought that the Chief Returning Officer had decided that postal votes were to be mixed in with the ballots on the day? There were critics of this who pointed to the doubts raised in the previous Glenrothes electionNickPalmer said:
It's legal to make predictions, even more legal to quote someone else's. We've been doing little else for weeks.MaxPB said:
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
It's often possible with good eyesight to make a good guess from verification of the postal votes. Quoting from that IS illegal, but saying you've met someone who did is not.numbertwelve said:
Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?0 -
Betfair's main Indy market does appear to have gone strangely quiet.
Perhaps the high rollers have done all their business and retired for the night, or at least until the results start coming in.0 -
I don't think old people would have no landline, but I think deprived people may. I think the lowest income 10% who are essentially not in good accommodation.0
-
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
0 -
Surprised he's not trying to contribute to his life's workNo_Offence_Alan said:
Doesn't Stuart live in Sweden?Maddocio said:If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?
0 -
Yes has done better among the very deprived than No.
I'm sure that's right. I guess if you, your kids and your kids' kids had all subsisted on estates for decades, seeing one Labour MP after another come and go with no change, you'd be ready to vote for anything.0 -
malc said he voted by post - six times.MarkHopkins said:0 -
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
0 -
Agreed.Howard said:
Indeed. It shows how much people care about this. The result will have total legitimacy.Stuart_Dickson said:Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
0 -
New here so apologies for what is probably a stupid question. In a two horse race, huge unknowns, difference between the sides in polls within the margin of error, how can the odds be so wildly out? 6.4 on yes must be a worth a bet, possibly a huge one? What am I missing?0
-
Oh dear - turnout will be 231% for YES, 30% for NOAlanbrooke said:Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?
#turnip
0 -
Mr. Historyman, welcome to the site.
Many have asked that question.-1 -
this poll is totally legitimate - unless the answer's NOBeverley_C said:
Oh dear - turnout will be 231% for YES, 30% for NOAlanbrooke said:Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?
#turnip0 -
"Have you ever wondered how the man who drives the snowplough gets to the snowplough" if anyone remembers this most famous VW commercial it got me thinking who the two people who manned the polling station voted. Well the answer in the polling station I was manning both voted YES. The Bastards! Prediction turnout 86% Yes 46 .0
-
The big news for me is that Neil Oliver has over 95,000 likes on Facebook for his support of the Union statement..
Who'd a thunk Neil Oliver would have such a sum!0 -
I'm really looking forward to the first shot of Salmond when the news is confirmed. For once, I don't think we'll see that famous smug grin.SouthamObserver said:The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.
0 -
Historyman said:
New here so apologies for what is probably a stupid question. In a two horse race, huge unknowns, difference between the sides in polls within the margin of error, how can the odds be so wildly out? 6.4 on yes must be a worth a bet, possibly a huge one? What am I missing?
Pretty much every poll has come in as NO.
0 -
Mr Historyman - There is no good reason. But you can take advantage of the market's inefficiency...0
-
Ladbrokes have Yes at 100/30, in from 5-1
0 -
There will undoubtedly be a high proportion of postals - but the main factor was the use of a helecopter to pick all the ballot boxes up. The'd probably have all 22000 votes ready to count by 11pm in that case - hence the early estimated declaration.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
If the helecopter can't fly, then the boxes will be taken by road tomorrow morning.0 -
Stunned realization he's achieved his life's endeavour will do that to a man, sadly.ThomasNashe said:
I'm really looking forward to the first shot of Salmond when the news is confirmed. For once, I don't think we'll see that famous smug grin.SouthamObserver said:The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.
0 -
My two hopes for this evening are that the count proceeds smoothly and there are no farcical issues with these machines they are using.
The second is that I hope all those that are queuing up at 10:00 are able to vote and we don't see a repeat of the 2010 general election fiasco.
If I were to call tonight, I think yes wins 52/48
0 -
RogerRoger said:"Have you ever wondered how the man who drives the snowplough gets to the snowplough" if anyone remembers this most famous VW commercial it got me thinking who the two people who manned the polling station voted. Well the answer in the polling station I was manning both voted YES. The Bastards! Prediction turnout 86% Yes 46 .
good to see you can do some manual work outside the confines of your bathroom.
Are you calling it yes, no, maybe or civil war ?0 -
I've thought from the start turnout would be something like 75% rather than some of the more spectacular predictions. I say this admittedly having not set foot in Scotland in years and there's a very good chance I'm completely wrong, but I suppose cynically I just wonder whether ANYTHING political (even something as significant as this) could ever engage 90%+ of the public in this day and age.DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.0 -
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
0 -
Anyone in the queue at 2200 sharp gets to vote, even if this is a bit later. Ergo no worries.toontoon said:My two hopes for this evening are that the count proceeds smoothly and there are no farcical issues with these machines they are using.
The second is that I hope all those that are queuing up at 10:00 are able to vote and we don't see a repeat of the 2010 general election fiasco.
If I were to call tonight, I think yes wins 52/48
0 -
FFS this poll IS FPTPCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
0 -
They're still verified as they come in (to save fiddling about with declaration forms on the day). It's done face down but some claim to be able to see through the papers, or you can catch glimpses as they're laid down, a bit like a card sharp watching the dealer. I have a LibDem colleague who was extremely confident of it at the Euros (but was mostly wrong). It's a bit better than tea leaves, but not a precise art.sarissa said:
I thought that the Chief Returning Officer had decided that postal votes were to be mixed in with the ballots on the day? There were critics of this who pointed to the doubts raised in the previous Glenrothes electionNickPalmer said:
It's legal to make predictions, even more legal to quote someone else's. We've been doing little else for weeks.MaxPB said:
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
It's often possible with good eyesight to make a good guess from verification of the postal votes. Quoting from that IS illegal, but saying you've met someone who did is not.numbertwelve said:
Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?
0 -
Someone made the point that there could be another Scots indy ref in 2017, if there was a UK wide EU in/out referendum, which a Tory government supported to come out.
I think this is a possibility. According to the YES campaign they could easily obtain EU membership using article 48. In the event that it was mainly England that wanted to leave the EU, this might trigger Wales and Scotland to vote for independence to stay in the EU.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.0 -
Aberdonians just getting on with their day here, no real frenzy of any sort as I saw and heard it.
A Yes stand was out for a bit in the city centre, had the odd visitor but looked dead and they shut up shop sharp...
I dropped into the BT office. Those who weren't at the Poling Places were on the phones.
Saw an usual couple walking about with a Yes flag with a goth, kilt thing going on. They had chants of No following them - largely from school kids.0 -
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.0 -
I have a modest bet on Yes at 45% to 50%. I think I might lose, but I have no idea in which direction!0
-
I think even in elections with compulsory turnout 90% isn't unusual, though I will stand corrected if someone has better info. To even get close to that is a phenomenal achievement.Danny565 said:
I've thought from the start turnout would be something like 75% rather than some of the more spectacular predictions. I say this admittedly having not set foot in Scotland in years and there's a very good chance I'm completely wrong, but I suppose cynically I just wonder whether ANYTHING political (even something as significant as this) could ever engage 90%+ of the public in this day and age.DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
0 -
"Chief Counting Officer" being interviewed rather unnecessarily on Sky News. Kudos to her for milking her 15 minutes I guess.0
-
Are they using machines to count? That make me nervous.toontoon said:My two hopes for this evening are that the count proceeds smoothly and there are no farcical issues with these machines they are using.
The second is that I hope all those that are queuing up at 10:00 are able to vote and we don't see a repeat of the 2010 general election fiasco.
If I were to call tonight, I think yes wins 52/48
0 -
Historyman said:
New here so apologies for what is probably a stupid question. In a two horse race, huge unknowns, difference between the sides in polls within the margin of error, how can the odds be so wildly out? 6.4 on yes must be a worth a bet, possibly a huge one? What am I missing?
Nothing.
The Yes price is too big. If I were starting from scratch, I would have a small wager on Yes, because it is better value. Most of us here have however been betting on this event for a long while, years in some cases. We have built up positions over that period and are now, mostly, hedging and adjusting our positions.
0 -
It was those pesky Liberals which broke FPTPAlanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTPCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
0 -
It's important but not important enough to fly in from Sweden, that would require actual commitment, not internet commitment which is so much easier and more comfortable. Its a bit like all the Facebook campaigns that swirl around, it allows people to feel they have done something when in fact they have done feck all.Maddocio said:
Surprised he's not trying to contribute to his life's workNo_Offence_Alan said:
Doesn't Stuart live in Sweden?Maddocio said:If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?
0 -
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
0 -
There is more truth to nessie than the SNP economic predictions
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
If its Yes then sadly its all too late.0 -
Just had a dinner of Scottish Salmon and Pasta, followed by haggis 'neeps + tatties' and waiting for close of polls in an hour.
0 -
That does surprise me (apart from the usual campaign statements). No's been confident for years!SouthamObserver said:The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.
0 -
We could bet on the betting?
What price YES trades under 4.5?
0 -
First past the post plus one.Carnyx said:
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates0 -
The Chief Counting Officer expects the result between 6 am and 9 am0
-
Just to say thanks v much for your updates in this campaign - I've enjoyed reading them.DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.0 -
Any NO backers out there? Get over to Shadsy's. He's offering the current best price: 2/9.
Clear signs of distress there! 0 -
Nick Palmer I did vote verification for the Euros, and as you say the postal ballots have to be kept face down, even by the verifier. You may be able to get an idea of the result in a council ward if you are really good at picking out marks and symbols from a distance, but how on earth you can know the result for the whole of Scotland is beyond me!0
-
90% + Turnout continues to tighten.
Don't believe it myself, but 85% + looks about right.0 -
I think the biggest news in Aberdeen the last couple of days is that Bill Daniel the Union Street Piper died at the age of 41.AllyM said:Aberdonians just getting on with their day here, no real frenzy of any sort as I saw and heard it.
A Yes stand was out for a bit in the city centre, had the odd visitor but looked dead and they shut up shop sharp...
I dropped into the BT office. Those who weren't at the Poling Places were on the phones.
Saw an usual couple walking about with a Yes flag with a goth, kilt thing going on. They had chants of No following them - largely from school kids.
He was a fixture next to the statue of Edward VII and though his piping could sometimes be a little 'variable' he was a great local attraction.
RIP Bill.0 -
Not sure whether I go to bed now and get up at 5am or stay up to watch the first piffling results and then not dare to turn on the news in the morning.TheScreamingEagles said:The Chief Counting Officer expects the result between 6 am and 9 am
Eep
0 -
Mr. Dickson, a better low odds bet might be a safety car to appear at Singapore at 1.2. Haven't backed it myself (I have a loathing of short odds) but it is probably value.0
-
Finding it painful to look at a computer screen now (the brightness on my eyes, not pain at the likely outcome that is). Of all the bloody days, honestly. I may have to bow out soon (horrible, I know). Now having a tablet, I doubt I will be able to sleep though, being able to check in every now and then no doubt.
Everyone try to have ...fun?0 -
I'm planning to stay up until Glasgow declares.numbertwelve said:
Not sure whether I go to bed now and get up at 5am or stay up to watch the first piffling results and then not dare to turn on the news in the morning.TheScreamingEagles said:The Chief Counting Officer expects the result between 6 am and 9 am
Eep0 -
I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
0 -
Rock solid certainty.isam said:We could bet on the betting?
What price YES trades under 4.5?0 -
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.0 -
Looks like Scotland are staying, but England has had enough about the Westminster voting and budget situation.0
-
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.Alanbrooke said:
First past the post plus one.Carnyx said:
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates
0 -
I'll second that.The various political organisers from all parties have put in a huge effort and can take a lot of credit for the high turnoutBlueberry said:
Just to say thanks v much for your updates in this campaign - I've enjoyed reading them.DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
0 -
Mr. kle4, my eyes go fuzzy sometimes with screen-staring. Hope it's not too bad. if it's painful, then you really should stop, and hopefully they'll be right tomorrow.0
-
That makes it all seem totally uncertain. Look forward to getting your post 10pm report. I have enjoyed your updates.DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.0 -
Do we have any idea who will make a victory / concession speech for BT? I assume Salmond will make one if it is Yes, but who will do it if it is No? Darling? Brown? Cameron?0
-
Doesn't it have to be your first home to get a vote?YBarddCwsc said:I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.0 -
Matched bets on Betfair's main market now nudging £13.3 million.0
-
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.DavidL said:
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
We all owe you.0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 55s
Turnout in Glasgow is going to be huge. At least 87% of postal votes have been cast in the council area.0 -
numbertwelve,
"Doesn't it have to be your first home to get a vote?"
No idea.
How many second homes are there in Scotland ?0 -
Darling I would say if NO lose. Them all if they win !JosiasJessop said:Do we have any idea who will make a victory / concession speech for BT? I assume Salmond will make one if it is Yes, but who will do it if it is No? Darling? Brown? Cameron?
0 -
Agreed.Alanbrooke said:
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.DavidL said:
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
We all owe you.0 -
Please be aware that if your acquaintance has just cast a vote based upon second-home ownership alone (ie. not normally resident in Scotland) then she has just broken the law.YBarddCwsc said:I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
Also be aware that the relevant officers are keeping a very close eye on known 2nd home property registrations.0 -
Alanbrooke. What do you think my name is, Bob Wooster! I think it'll be NO. Just too many old folk0
-
Absolutely. He was well known for being a 'not very good piper' but popular.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the biggest news in Aberdeen the last couple of days is that Bill Daniel the Union Street Piper died at the age of 41.AllyM said:Aberdonians just getting on with their day here, no real frenzy of any sort as I saw and heard it.
A Yes stand was out for a bit in the city centre, had the odd visitor but looked dead and they shut up shop sharp...
I dropped into the BT office. Those who weren't at the Poling Places were on the phones.
Saw an usual couple walking about with a Yes flag with a goth, kilt thing going on. They had chants of No following them - largely from school kids.
He was a fixture next to the statue of Edward VII and though his piping could sometimes be a little 'variable' he was a great local attraction.
RIP Bill.
RIP Bill.0 -
how often did you vote ? ;-)Carnyx said:
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.Alanbrooke said:
First past the post plus one.Carnyx said:
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates0 -
I was in Aberdeen last week and only remarked to my sister that the piper by Edward VII (who had a traffic cone over his orb) was absolutely terrible. RIP.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the biggest news in Aberdeen the last couple of days is that Bill Daniel the Union Street Piper died at the age of 41.AllyM said:Aberdonians just getting on with their day here, no real frenzy of any sort as I saw and heard it.
A Yes stand was out for a bit in the city centre, had the odd visitor but looked dead and they shut up shop sharp...
I dropped into the BT office. Those who weren't at the Poling Places were on the phones.
Saw an usual couple walking about with a Yes flag with a goth, kilt thing going on. They had chants of No following them - largely from school kids.
He was a fixture next to the statue of Edward VII and though his piping could sometimes be a little 'variable' he was a great local attraction.
RIP Bill.
0 -
I've just fallen in love with Alex Clare. And Fitz and the Tantrums.
I've spent most of the summer expanding my record collection. Just my own favourite tracks file stands at about 8Gb. Will look up Mr Frisell. Always up for a recommendation. I've got everything from Elizabethan lutes to Dolly Parton via Black Sabbath.Innocent_Abroad said:"Always listen to your favourite music" - I currently have Bill Frisell's "Intercontinentals" on the CD player. Awesome stuff. Few people can do music that appeals at once to head and heart, but Frisell is one of them.
0 -
Yikes! 90% + turnout continues to tighten. Now 4.50
-
Well said.Alanbrooke said:
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.DavidL said:
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
We all owe you.0 -
Amen.Alanbrooke said:
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.DavidL said:
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
We all owe you.
0 -
Of course if the nats just had the honesty to wear white bedsheets with eye slits I'd be backing them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Agreed.Alanbrooke said:
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.DavidL said:
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.peter_from_putney said:
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?DavidL said:Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
We all owe you.0 -
We will surely hear from Gordon BrownHoward said:
Darling I would say if NO lose. Them all if they win !JosiasJessop said:Do we have any idea who will make a victory / concession speech for BT? I assume Salmond will make one if it is Yes, but who will do it if it is No? Darling? Brown? Cameron?
0 -
Anyone worried about losing money on Sindy betting?
All I hear on this blog is people making shed loads of money...0 -
What first attracted me to this site all those years ago was the idea that people who invested their own money on the out-come of an election were probably more likely to be correct than the pundits in the media. If the idea was ever sound (and I have had some nice wins courtesy of gents that used to post here) I think it has long gone. PB is still a fun place to hang out though, but perhaps slightly more eccentric that it once was.SeanT said:Theory: the first place to get a real intimation of the results will be the currency markets. The government will have to anticipate a run on the £, and the BoE will need to pre-empt this with interventions.
This is so much more important than a GE, and with such vaster implications, the governments in London and Holyrood will presumably have a hotline to all returning officers, YouGov etc.
So if we start seeing sudden eerie volatility in sterling/dollar markets, for instance, that means that YES are probably going to win.
Well, it's a theory. It may need work.0 -
I have never known law officers to prosecute for that.Stuart_Dickson said:
Please be aware that if your acquaintance has just cast a vote based upon second-home ownership alone (ie. not normally resident in Scotland) then she has just broken the law.YBarddCwsc said:I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
Also be aware that the relevant officers are keeping a very close eye on known 2nd home property registrations.
0 -
I'll never forget the joke about nuns and Nazis...dr_spyn said:0
-
Once!Alanbrooke said:
how often did you vote ? ;-)Carnyx said:
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.Alanbrooke said:
First past the post plus one.Carnyx said:
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates
0 -
so like fk all chance unless your pissed in a bookies.Stuart_Dickson said:Yikes! 90% + turnout continues to tighten. Now 4.5
0 -
Stuart,
I shall let you when and if my acquaintance is hauled off to jail.
0 -
Does trading stop at 10pm Sean?SeanT said:
I agree with that. In a race this huge and tight and tense, there are bound to be results which spook the market and send it all over the place. FFS the rumour of a rumour of a poll can shift Betfair substantially.Stuart_Dickson said:
Rock solid certainty.isam said:We could bet on the betting?
What price YES trades under 4.5?
YES is bound to trade under 4.5 at some point in the night. Of course if YES wins it will at some point crossover.0 -
You really haven't got the hang of celtic voting.Carnyx said:
Once!Alanbrooke said:
how often did you vote ? ;-)Carnyx said:
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.Alanbrooke said:
First past the post plus one.Carnyx said:
How on earth do you work that out??Alanbrooke said:Alanbrooke said:
FFS this poll IS FPTP squaredCarnyx said:
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.Howard said:
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.ThomasNashe said:
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.Alistair said:Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates
I'll put you down as a NO :-)0 -
BANG - and the #indyref vote bet is done-
Inspired by a mini-vacation in Royal Deeside Mr and Ms Briskin have gone for-
100 quid at evens (ish) at Yes 45 - 50
NO FOR THE WIN!!!!!!0 -
-
in this election there are too many people from outside the relevant judisdiction voting, I guess?HurstLlama said:
What first attracted me to this site all those years ago was the idea that people who invested their own money on the out-come of an election were probably more likely to be correct than the pundits in the media. If the idea was ever sound (and I have had some nice wins courtesy of gents that used to post here) I think it has long gone. PB is still a fun place to hang out though, but perhaps slightly more eccentric that it once was.SeanT said:Theory: the first place to get a real intimation of the results will be the currency markets. The government will have to anticipate a run on the £, and the BoE will need to pre-empt this with interventions.
This is so much more important than a GE, and with such vaster implications, the governments in London and Holyrood will presumably have a hotline to all returning officers, YouGov etc.
So if we start seeing sudden eerie volatility in sterling/dollar markets, for instance, that means that YES are probably going to win.
Well, it's a theory. It may need work.0 -
-
You ole romantic!nigel4england said:
So was shagging!foxinsoxuk said:
Doing homework by candlelight during the three day week was rather fun as I recall.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.foxinsoxuk said:
I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!0 -
Still think turnout will be closer to 80% than 90%...0
