politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
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Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.Stuart_Dickson said:Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.
New best prices:
Glasgow result
YES 4/6 (Lad)
NO 6/4 (PP)
Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.0 -
Agreed, but after all of the ramping by Yes that they were the ones who got these people to register anywhere near 50-50 is something that needs to be looked at, subsample or not.DanSmith said:
Subsample of an opinion poll, be careful.MaxPB said:It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.
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It's legal to make predictions, even more legal to quote someone else's. We've been doing little else for weeks.MaxPB said:
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
It's often possible with good eyesight to make a good guess from verification of the postal votes. Quoting from that IS illegal, but saying you've met someone who did is not.numbertwelve said:
Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?
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Quiet night tonight, anything interesting happening?
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Good to see you on, Ave It. What's your prediction for the other referendum?0
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In which case most of PB will be locked up for taking part in the PB Prediction competition and I should have had a early morning call from the police with attendant BBC cameras a month ago.MaxPB said:
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
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It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.foxinsoxuk said:
I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
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Mr. HYUFD, should be up to all England, not politicians trying to gerrymander things and carve us up into crappy little political fiefdoms.0
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Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....MaxPB said:
It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.anothernick said:
But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
LOLMarkHopkins said:
Quiet night tonight, anything interesting happening?0 -
Both Maguire and SH probably wrong, no exit polls and postal votes not counted until 10pm. Also it is illegal to leak election result data before polls close, so i suggest both shut up!0
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Doing homework by candlelight during the three day week was rather fun as I recall.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.foxinsoxuk said:
I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
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I'm nervous now.
The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.
Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.
As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...
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Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.anothernick said:
Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....MaxPB said:
It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.anothernick said:
But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
There were always the old internet stories of some idiots playing russian roulette with a semi-automatic.Smarmeron said:@peter_from_putney
Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.0 -
Howard Indeed, or euro regions.0
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Wow .... I'm impressed by your seemingly expert knowledge on the subject!Smarmeron said:@peter_from_putney
Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.0 -
Forget the country I've got a fair few betting positions relying on Cameron and Miliband keeping their jobs. Praying for a #No ^_~0
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Trimmed because I suspect that the Coalition will renege on those promises. After all doing so would lead to heavy Labour losses in Scotland in the face of a furious SNP.stodge said:Evening all
The wet dream for some of Labour expunged and a Conservative-UKIP coalition evaporates with a NO vote and the promises made to Scotland in the campaign will have to be delivered.
.0 -
When was the last time there was one of these things for Jack to predict? Is he over 300 years old?peter_from_putney said:
Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.0 -
Less expectations management, more trying to put influence out. People like voting for the winning side, you create the impression of momentum and victory, you might swing a few late votes (and every little helps).Howard said:
Well you don't normally want to manage expectations on your own side UP.GIN1138 said:
It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.FrancisUrquhart said:
Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
good to see scotnats can finally play in their kilts and cocktail dresses.Ave_it said:Go YES!!!!....
..to women allowed in at St Andrews - about time welcome to 2015!!!!
# malcolmLBD0 -
So was shagging!foxinsoxuk said:
Doing homework by candlelight during the three day week was rather fun as I recall.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.foxinsoxuk said:
I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!0 -
Especially in this case. I've been thinking about how odd it would be to have voted against ones own new country. So if you thought YES would win, and you are going to have a new country, better vote YES so that you don't fall on the wrong side of history.corporeal said:
Less expectations management, more trying to put influence out. People like voting for the winning side, you create the impression of momentum and victory, you might swing a few late votes (and every little helps).Howard said:
Well you don't normally want to manage expectations on your own side UP.GIN1138 said:
It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.FrancisUrquhart said:
Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
@Nigel4England
"When was the last time there was one of these things for Jack to predict? Is he over 300 years old?"
Close.0 -
@peter_from_putney
It came up in a discussion, but while the odds against dropping the hammer on a live chamber improve, it would depend a lot on the revolver used, by how much.0 -
YES moving...
about £20k vanished0 -
I don't believe that 10% of scots don't have either mobile or landline. I don't know the true figure but I'd guess its nearer 1%. And why should we assume they are all yes supporters? Many of them will be pensioners.Howard said:
Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.anothernick said:
Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....MaxPB said:
It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.anothernick said:
But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
How much do YES have to win Glasgow by for it to indicate an overall win? I know a couple of the brainboxes here have worked a rough estimate out..SeanT said:
So to sum up, we have one swirling rumour (thanks to Kevin Maguire) that NO are cruising to an easy win...
And yet the odds on YES winning Glasgow are shortening by the minute, which implies that this could be a very close result, and maybe YES.
Eek. Time for dinner.0 -
@pfp
I've been so busy trading every bookie market I can find, I barely know what my best outcome is.
Currently, my profit is weighted on no (but no loss on yes, thanks to the last few weeks of trading). Turnout between 81.5-90% would be fantastic, above or below that I'm screwed.
Lots and lots of little bets on the side markets, just picking off value really.
Right now, the value bet is probably laying 45-50% @ evens on Betfair IMO.0 -
What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.0
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peter_from_putney said:
Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.Stuart_Dickson said:Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.
New best prices:
Glasgow result
YES 4/6 (Lad)
NO 6/4 (PP)
Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.
Could be value in No if the price is being driven by Glaswegians seeing busy polling stations and assuming everyone is coming out to vote yes.0 -
Just to be clear, the No rumour wasn't by Kevin Macguire, it was a prediction from someone in the No camp and therefore utterly meaningless.
The SH YES rumour is very odd as surely they haven't opened postal votes? So I suggest that's a total pile of rubbish too.
No-one knows.0 -
Whoops-a-daisy! LADBROKES SUSPEND THEIR TURNOUT PRICES.0
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Turnout. 90% + is tightening at Betfair.
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Sinn Fein speaksStuart_Dickson said:Turnout. 90% + is tightening at Betfair.
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I expect the sums being bet on that market are quite small - a £50 bet on either side could probably shift the odds. Don't read too much into it etc.Artist said:peter_from_putney said:
Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.Stuart_Dickson said:Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.
New best prices:
Glasgow result
YES 4/6 (Lad)
NO 6/4 (PP)
Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.
Could be value in No if the price is being driven by Glaswegians seeing busy polling stations and assuming everyone is coming out to vote yes.0 -
I clearly understand fuck all about betting and should not be listened too.0
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That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.numbertwelve said:I'm nervous now.
The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.
Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.
As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...
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Vast sums laying YES have just disappeared from Betfair.0
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BetFair liquidity has all but disappeared. YES coming in.
Rumours?0 -
5.70
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YES tightening fast at Betfair. Gone from 6.4 to 5.7 in 20 minutes.0
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I am hoping to see Alex Salmond cry in the morning after decades of ambition come to nothing.0
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Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?0
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_webTheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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£13 million matched is an impressive amount0
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SO still up for a pint w\c 13 october I;ll see if doc P is freeSouthamObserver said:
That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.numbertwelve said:I'm nervous now.
The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.
Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.
As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...0 -
But what is depressing me is the thought of watching Jeremy Vine leaping around the electronic graphics like a headless chicken, accompanied by Emily Matliss acting as a political weathergirl.Howard said:What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.
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I do love this time on Election nights. The hour before polls close is always one of febrile expectation, rumourmongering, and sheer terror, followed by several hours of anti-climactic waiting.
So, are YouGov really doing an Exit poll? If so, how on earth are they going to set benchmarks and weighting etc? They surely can't simply take a random litmus test?0 -
I am Sir!Alanbrooke said:
SO still up for a pint w\c 13 october I;ll see if doc P is freeSouthamObserver said:
That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.numbertwelve said:I'm nervous now.
The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.
Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.
As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...
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It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.TheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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Betfair price is back up to 6.
Calm down people.0 -
Thankswilliamglenn said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_webTheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time0
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Just watching the Eukelele Orchestra Of Great Britain on Sky Arts 1. Funny, talented, eccentric. Makes you proud to be British!!0
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*tea drinking intensifies*TheScreamingEagles said:Betfair price is back up to 6.
Calm down people.0 -
http://www.cityam.com/1411025376/when-will-scottish-independence-referendum-vote-be-announced-declaration-times-localTheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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Dr. Spyn, I did suggest they'll end up having politicians toss the caber with the ridiculous and aggravating CGI this time.
I had planned to stay up, but if there's sod all for 4 hours I might just get up if I happen to wake in the middle of the night (which is eminently possible).0 -
Found it now. I've just had a near 6 hour sleep getting ready for tonight.hucks67 said:
It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.TheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
I will be your host for this evening.
I so hope I don't have my Dewey moment.0 -
Lesson here is if you have a big wedge you can cause the market to react simply by making it appear and dissapear0
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so the world says sod off scotland we dont want you
#rajoy #obama #merkel #andymurray0 -
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html
Some Canadian academics have been doing data analysis today and predict 54% for the YES camp:
"A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.
“I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum."0 -
Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.0
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Thanks.hucks67 said:
http://www.cityam.com/1411025376/when-will-scottish-independence-referendum-vote-be-announced-declaration-times-localTheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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Angus ReidHoward said:http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html
Some Canadian academics have been doing data analysis today and predict 54% for the YES camp:
"A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.
“I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum."0 -
Indeed. It shows how much people care about this. The result will have total legitimacy.Stuart_Dickson said:Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
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I'm expecting Glasgow to be 50% Yes, compared to 45% overall.DanSmith said:How much do YES have to win Glasgow by for it to indicate an overall win? I know a couple of the brainboxes here have worked a rough estimate out..
SeanT said:So to sum up, we have one swirling rumour (thanks to Kevin Maguire) that NO are cruising to an easy win...
And yet the odds on YES winning Glasgow are shortening by the minute, which implies that this could be a very close result, and maybe YES.
Eek. Time for dinner.
So, if Glasgow reaches 56% Yes, I suspect Yes have won.
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scots must REALLY hate SalmondStuart_Dickson said:Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
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See the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/9-things-scottish-referendum-campaign-taught-usHoward said:
Indeed. It shows how much people care about this.Stuart_Dickson said:Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
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As a bit of idle speculation, if it was yes and Cameron is forced to go (if it is the former I think the latter is inevitable) who gets Number 10?
Couldn't really see it being anyone but Hammond IMHO. Hague has a chance if he can be persuaded to stay. I can't see it being May or Osborne.0 -
Election Game predictions
Evening all, many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part (NZ predictions will be out by tomorrow evening).
25% of players predicted Yes to win, with the average prediction across all players being Yes 48.36%.
In the selected local regions, only Falkirk and Glasgow had an overall Yes prediction, with Aberdeen, Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh, Highland, Perth & Kinross, and Shetland all being No.
Cheers and best of luck for the long night ahead,
DC0 -
Stirring the porridge might be more appealing that Vine's graphics.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Spyn, I did suggest they'll end up having politicians toss the caber with the ridiculous and aggravating CGI this time.
I had planned to stay up, but if there's sod all for 4 hours I might just get up if I happen to wake in the middle of the night (which is eminently possible).0 -
The blood pressure just rises and rises and those furred arteries must be taking a pounding.Alcohol sales up,ex-smokers start smoking again,and so it goes.Smells like victory.
Bob Marley has it all worked out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loFDn94oZJ00 -
Old King Cole I'd agree with those points. I like Ruth Davidson too, as he says.OldKingCole said:
See the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/9-things-scottish-referendum-campaign-taught-usHoward said:
Indeed. It shows how much people care about this.Stuart_Dickson said:Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
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My three kids - 16, 20 and 23 - do not give a toss about it.SeanT said:Irrelevant yet apposite anecdote: my girlfriend (who is in her mid-20s and, tho smart, doesn't especially care about politics) asked me yesterday, as she flew off to Amsterdam for the weekend, why I was so agitated about this vote.
I explained to her that when she flies home again on Sunday she could be coming back to a different, diminished country.
"Bollocks," she said "I am flying out of England and I will fly back in to England."
It was oddly soothing. The wisdom of youth.
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Mine do but then we're Nazis and support yes.SouthamObserver said:
My three kids - 16, 20 and 23 - do not give a toss about it.SeanT said:Irrelevant yet apposite anecdote: my girlfriend (who is in her mid-20s and, tho smart, doesn't especially care about politics) asked me yesterday, as she flew off to Amsterdam for the weekend, why I was so agitated about this vote.
I explained to her that when she flies home again on Sunday she could be coming back to a different, diminished country.
"Bollocks," she said "I am flying out of England and I will fly back in to England."
It was oddly soothing. The wisdom of youth.0 -
The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.0
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Yes has done better among the very deprived than No. Looks like Yes' invisible advantage they were relying on is more reliable than just hoping there are a lot of shy No's I suspect.anothernick said:
I don't believe that 10% of scots don't have either mobile or landline. I don't know the true figure but I'd guess its nearer 1%. And why should we assume they are all yes supporters? Many of them will be pensioners.Howard said:
Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.anothernick said:
Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....MaxPB said:
It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.anothernick said:
But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
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Dr. Spyn, ah, but if Charlotte Hawkins and Sarah Jane Mee were discussing matters I'm sure it'd keep my attention.
Edited extra bit: I am aware Hawkins left Sky for ITV, alas.0 -
USEFUL LINKS
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DECLARATION TIMES
http://www.cityam.com/1411025376/when-will-scottish-independence-referendum-vote-be-announced-declaration-times-local
ANDYJS'S SPREADSHEETS
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/htmlview?usp=drive_web
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_web
Any others?0 -
Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?
#turnip0 -
Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.0 -
If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?0
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Still impossible to say who will win though I think its 51 for YES. I think the losing side (yes OR no) will be disappointed - depressed for quite a while indeed. That's what makes this completely different.SouthamObserver said:The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.
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I hope you are wrong. I fear that you are right.FrankBooth said:
God, I remember that. Went to sleep and then woke up to find Bush had it almost in the bag. Gutted.viewcode said:Anybody mulling over the importance of >85% turnout may recall the experience of Bob Worcester, who on the US Presidential election night of 2004 called the election for John Kerry, only to be discomfited by the disproportionately large turnout later in the day/evening (see here).
If there is a large turnout then that will skew the final result and (given the closeness) will tip the result either way. I understand from people commenting herein that turnout is large. What I want to know is what is their age profile of these voters. If there are more older voters at a time-of-day when older voters are fewer then that would indicate "No". If there are more younger voters at a time-of-day when younger voters are fewer then that would indicate "Yes".
So. What is the age profile of the turnout by time-of-day and how does it compare to previous elections?
If turnout is higher than predicted, I have to say that favours Yes. The demographics of those who don't normally vote will be on their side.
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I'm sick, just been caught in a thunderstorm not on the last forecast I saw and so drenched through, and am operating on 4 hours of sleep. Appropriate context for witnessing the end of the Union I think - if No do win tomorrow, I will be interested to see how much it may temporarily provide succor to my sickly body. Fortunately, already being at a low ebb, I doubt my disconsolate reaction to the likely scenario will make things worse at least.0
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I never object to watching Emily Maitless, whatever she's doing!dr_spyn said:
But what is depressing me is the thought of watching Jeremy Vine leaping around the electronic graphics like a headless chicken, accompanied by Emily Matliss acting as a political weathergirl.Howard said:What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.
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Doesn't Stuart live in Sweden?Maddocio said:If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?
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he doesn't live in Scotland.Maddocio said:If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?
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I thought Ms Pitcaithley was going to declare the final result when one side had clearly won. If no is 40000 ahead with just the Western Isles (or whatever it's called these days) to come then their views are going to count bugger all.hucks67 said:
It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.TheScreamingEagles said:Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
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Pre-celebration preparations?MarkHopkins said:0
