politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market.
Comments
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First, so help me God...0
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Yes 6.2
No 1.18
Madness.0 -
Third, like the Gnats tomorrow, I hope.0
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After this, I hope we see Alex Salmond about as much as Nessie - maybe we can ship him to St Helena?0
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Just a few more hours....0
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One of the first expected results (and one of the largest electorates) is North Lanarkshire.
Current best prices - North Lanarkshire result
Yes 5/6 (Lad, PP)
No 5/6 (Lad,PP)0 -
I'm depressed, and not only because Indyref is 6.2.
Freedom!0 -
I got a goodly sum on Yes at 6.4 an hour or so ago. I may throw a little more into the pot in a while.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes 6.2
No 1.18
Madness.
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Will we know before Aberdeen declares?0
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Glasgow is the largest council area in the country, and Shadsy has just lengthened the No price there now 11/10 from 5/6.
Best Prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (SkyBet)
No 6/4 (PP)0 -
Betfair's new "Voter Turnout 2" market:
75.0 Percent or fewer 46
75.01 - 80.0 Percent 6.4
80.01 - 85.0 Percent 3.35
85.01 - 90.0 Percent 2.62
90.01 - 95.0 Percent 6
95.01 Percent or Greater 250 -
Still hoping for a yes, but from reading around the No camp seems to have it in the bag. Yes supporters seem less happy than usual, Salmond's expression at 10pm will tell is what we need to know.0
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The Royal & Ancient have voted YES (to women members).0
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Anybody mulling over the importance of >85% turnout may recall the experience of Bob Worcester, who on the US Presidential election night of 2004 called the election for John Kerry, only to be discomfited by the disproportionately large turnout later in the day/evening (see here).
If there is a large turnout then that will skew the final result and (given the closeness) will tip the result either way. I understand from people commenting herein that turnout is large. What I want to know is what is their age profile of these voters. If there are more older voters at a time-of-day when older voters are fewer then that would indicate "No". If there are more younger voters at a time-of-day when younger voters are fewer then that would indicate "Yes".
So. What is the age profile of the turnout by time-of-day and how does it compare to previous elections?0 -
Peyton's Head @PeytonsHead 11m
BREAKING: The big vote in Scotland has passed!
The Royal and Ancient Golf Club is finally allowing women.0 -
I'd like to thank whoever has backed UKIP @ 4-1 on Betfair with me :O) (Heywood & Middleton)0
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As for the Jocks - no bet for me at the moment, Yes is going to be a fantastic value loser.0
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In Northern Ireland 1998 referendum the turnout was way higher than normal.
The consensus was that a lot of "sane" "moderate" or "reasonable" people came out, particularly the comfortably off, who find normal NI politics a turn off normally.
Not sure if there is a read-across to Scotland, but I just put it out there.
Frankly I suspect that a lot of these analyses that try to compare Canada, Wales, NI, etc to the Scottish referendum are very weak, because each country has a distinct political dynamic.
That's why I didn't buy Stephen Fisher's blog on What Scotland Thinks that said that the NO vote was likely to be higher than the polls say.0 -
I recon it could still be a narrow YES.0
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Good day to bury bad news? ;-)dr_spyn said:Peyton's Head @PeytonsHead 11m
BREAKING: The big vote in Scotland has passed!
The Royal and Ancient Golf Club is finally allowing women.
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Whatever the outcome, it's good to see people so politically engaged.
Perhaps a lesson for other political parties in this......0 -
Bring back tim sherwood0
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I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
You'll probably have a hard time going to sleep with all the anxiety. Hopefully No wins the day, but we shall see. A thought of a Yes makes me even more depressed than I usually am!Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
I'm talking about effect. How can you claim it was a time of massive prosperity when it oversaw the impoverishment of hundreds of millions of south Asians? You only need to look at global growth rates over the last 50 years and compare them to any period under the British Empire to realise how much global stewardship has been better for prosperity recently.Luckyguy1983 said:
Again, irrelevant. Who's talking about sin? I'm talking about effect. And Britain's effect on the 19th century, despite undoubted colonial abuses (not just by Britain), it was one of relative peace and massive prosperity. Because of the fact that it had always been a seafaring and trading nation, Britain bore the responsibility of being the lender of last resort well. America's leadership of the world economy was a disaster. Let's hope when China takes over, they will follow the British model, not the American one, though I'm not optimistic.Socrates said:
You think adding tariffs to American imports was a worse sin than enforcing a monopoly over an entire subcontinent and only allowing them to sell to one buyer, often at below the cost of production? For two hundred years Indian incomes barely moved because they were actively suppressed from moving past raw agriculture.
As for the rise of Naziism and WW2, the biggest problem there was that the US WASN'T involved enough. Congress made them go into one of their disastrous isolationist phases, which rendered the League of Nations and collective deterrence toothless. Hitler saw how the US-less international community responded to Mussolini and knew it was game on.
As for your second para, firstly, the rise of fascism and nazism could not have occurred without The Great Depression. Secondly, your argument about collective deterrence surely reinforces the point about American insularity and selfishness rather than undermining it.
On the lender of last resort, when did Britain ever do this internationally? And during the Great Depression the British did exactly the same as the Americans: they failed to expand the money supply. In fact, the attempt to get back on the gold standard was an active act of restriction, sot hey were worse.
I accept the charge of American insularity post-1918, but I don't see where this fits with your broader argument. You're saying the UK getting involved in continental affairs in 1914 to stop an aggressive Germany was a mistake, as it lessened the UK's ability in the 1930s to to get involved in continental affairs to stop an aggressive Germany? American failure to act in the 1920s and 1930s was better than a much more powerful and imperialist Germany running the show.0 -
Well perhaps you should stay up. Its a bit like wanting to be there when someone close to you is in a critical condition.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
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In this case, you have us on PB!Howard said:
Well perhaps you should stay up. Its a bit like wanting to be there when someone close to you is in a critical condition.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
Howard, it could be a quite clear yes. We're not betting about the margin of error, but about whether or not the polling companies have really gauged the masses. Personally I think it's 50/50 almost literally. The polling companies have done a great job on narrowing in on their line - just all of them have missed a significant segment that are voting for the first time, and never again.Howard said:I recon it could still be a narrow YES.
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Bob__Sykes said:
I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
I'm English. We'll still be around tomorrow morning.
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I think it is a good thing if people who don't normally participate in the political process now do. A very good thing.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
We've moaned on this site the fact that people are disillusioned with politics, with our political establishment etc. So if people have bothered to take an interest, good for them - and like democrats we accept the result, whatever it is.
I would have wanted Scots born residents of the UK to have a vote but given that it's 16 and 17 year olds who will have to live in the UK or an independent Scotland that's not an obviously daft decision, unless you assume that they're all half-wits or irredeemably frivolous.0 -
The Scotland referendum is just a dry run for the EU referendum.
Can't wait for that one!0 -
High turnout usually pushes both sides supporters out so there is unlikely to be an advantage either way.0
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You had better make sure you vote Conservative then.David_Evershed said:The Scotland referendum is just a dry run for the EU referendum.
Can't wait for that one!0 -
Yes, but I do have work to go to in the morning!Howard said:
Well perhaps you should stay up. Its a bit like wanting to be there when someone close to you is in a critical condition.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
I don't think I could bear to stay up to see the results come in, the hope, the despair, the not knowing anything until we get Glasgow's result. I suspect I might be up by the time the guillotine finally comes down on the Union....
Even on Black Monday last week, I still felt the Union would prevail. I don't now - the "f... 'em all" brigade will win it for Salmond.
Could be worse, I could be David Cameron...0 -
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I think the sentiment you describe is much more prevalent amongst men, who already lean yes. Women will be the saviours of the union.Bob__Sykes said:
Yes, but I do have work to go to in the morning!Howard said:
Well perhaps you should stay up. Its a bit like wanting to be there when someone close to you is in a critical condition.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
I don't think I could bear to stay up to see the results come in, the hope, the despair, the not knowing anything until we get Glasgow's result. I suspect I might be up by the time the guillotine finally comes down on the Union....
Even on Black Monday last week, I still felt the Union would prevail. I don't now - the "f... 'em all" brigade will win it for Salmond.
Could be worse, I could be David Cameron...0 -
That'll be far less intense. I won't be as worried/pessimistic/joyous/depressed/elated when the results come in for that one...David_Evershed said:The Scotland referendum is just a dry run for the EU referendum.
Can't wait for that one!
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I agree - I think its really hard to say. I have predicted 51 YES, but I agree it could be a bit more. The high turnout in principle should make us look less at those polls that weigh by "likelihood of voting".Omnium said:
Howard, it could be a quite clear yes. We're not betting about the margin of error, but about whether or not the polling companies have really gauged the masses. Personally I think it's 50/50 almost literally. The polling companies have done a great job on narrowing in on their line - just all of them have missed a significant segment that are voting for the first time, and never again.Howard said:I recon it could still be a narrow YES.
Scots have always in every referendum voted for more powers - and past polls on referendums in scotland have underestimated YES quite badly, such as the Tax powers YES in 1998
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That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
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Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.0 -
God, I remember that. Went to sleep and then woke up to find Bush had it almost in the bag. Gutted.viewcode said:Anybody mulling over the importance of >85% turnout may recall the experience of Bob Worcester, who on the US Presidential election night of 2004 called the election for John Kerry, only to be discomfited by the disproportionately large turnout later in the day/evening (see here).
If there is a large turnout then that will skew the final result and (given the closeness) will tip the result either way. I understand from people commenting herein that turnout is large. What I want to know is what is their age profile of these voters. If there are more older voters at a time-of-day when older voters are fewer then that would indicate "No". If there are more younger voters at a time-of-day when younger voters are fewer then that would indicate "Yes".
So. What is the age profile of the turnout by time-of-day and how does it compare to previous elections?
If turnout is higher than predicted, I have to say that favours Yes. The demographics of those who don't normally vote will be on their side.0 -
Bob.Chill.Have a cup of nice herbal tea,camomile is nice,go to your usual masseur and ask for an emergency appointment,your stress is going straight into your prostate gland,tantric is what you need to ask for,and always listen to your favourite music-I find the Grateful Dead does it for me.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
My karma is unshaken.I have said it started 57-43,there was an awful amount of noise and alcohol consumed,and the match finished just as it started.The loyal British Scots are like other quiet folk,over in Quebec,not to keen to let anyone else know what their business is,very private and conservative,small c.They will do their talking in the ballot box.
Relax and listen to the birds.
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The UK is facing Russian Roulette odds. It'll probably be OK but it might have its cranial vault blown off.peter_from_putney said:
Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.0 -
I think its hard to judge. There will be a lot of apolitical people who think politics is stupid, but come out to vote to stop the YES, because they don't want a big change.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
There could be more people who come out because they do want change.
I have gone for a narrow YES because I think they will go with their hearts, but I have little confidence in it.0 -
You make a good point although I'm not sure if it was intentional - the downside is all north of the border.TwistedFireStopper said:Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
I'm English. We'll still be around tomorrow morning.
The UK will still be there as well and if it does not include Scotland then we will still get on with life.
And if it does not include Scotland then it will be the fault of Labour and an almost inevitable consequence of its devolution policy.
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Betfair's new "Voter Turnout 2" market:
75.0 Percent or fewer 44
75.01 - 80.0 Percent 6.8
80.01 - 85.0 Percent 3.2
85.01 - 90.0 Percent 2.6
90.01 - 95.0 Percent 5.6
95.01 Percent or Greater 240 -
Has this changed much since the last time? Looks like you'll beat Northern Ireland 1998Stuart_Dickson said:Betfair's new "Voter Turnout 2" market:
75.0 Percent or fewer 44
75.01 - 80.0 Percent 6.8
80.01 - 85.0 Percent 3.2
85.01 - 90.0 Percent 2.6
90.01 - 95.0 Percent 5.6
95.01 Percent or Greater 240 -
Is JackW normally quite accurate? Whenever I read his post he keeps going on about his arse or something.peter_from_putney said:
Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.
I actually hope it's really close as I've got some booze ready to hear the results coming in and it would be a shame for it all to be done and dusted after the first couple of results.0 -
"Always listen to your favourite music" - I currently have Bill Frisell's "Intercontinentals" on the CD player. Awesome stuff. Few people can do music that appeals at once to head and heart, but Frisell is one of them.0
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Was anyone here sad enough to stay up all night for the knife-edge Welsh referendum?0
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" Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo?"
Because they have confidence and belief in the Union and they don't wan't to see it broken up and Scotland facing severe jeopardy as a result.
Simples really!0 -
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
I think us English will suffer, but we'll get through it.Flightpath said:
You make a good point although I'm not sure if it was intentional - the downside is all north of the border.TwistedFireStopper said:Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
I'm English. We'll still be around tomorrow morning.
The UK will still be there as well and if it does not include Scotland then we will still get on with life.
And if it does not include Scotland then it will be the fault of Labour and an almost inevitable consequence of its devolution policy.
I'm actively shaking with fear and dread that the Scots will vote for the same old same old status quo.
I might wake up in the morning to find this sorry state of affairs still exists.
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0 shots on target.
Right, now for the main event... bring on Jeremy Vine and his silly CGI, yee-har...0 -
I can believe that. My other scenario is that voters have been reluctant to be seen publicly endorsing NO and a large NO will result.Howard said:
I have gone for a narrow YES because I think they will go with their hearts, but I have little confidence in it.
I cannot decide which of the two will prevail but neither bodes well for Scotland - economic idiocy on one hand and, on the other, an air of fear stopping people from expressing themselves freely.
The one thing I am certain of is that this referendum has done Scotland no favours.
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This prediction is very close to mine in the PB.com/Ladbrokes competition as well as mirroring my average betting position.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
Do you want to try getting a tad more OTT?Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
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Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
TFS If a narrow No what hopefully will occur is devomax, plus English votes for English laws, maybe an English Parliament and regional assemblies0
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Surely if it's scenario 2 it won't matter because the "silent majority" will have spoken?Beverley_C said:
I can believe that. My other scenario is that voters have been reluctant to be seen publicly endorsing NO and a large NO will result.Howard said:
I have gone for a narrow YES because I think they will go with their hearts, but I have little confidence in it.
I cannot decide which of the two will prevail but neither bodes well for Scotland - economic idiocy on one hand and, on the other, an air of fear stopping people from expressing themselves freely.
The one thing I am certain of is that this referendum has done Scotland no favours.
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Good evening, my fellow British patriots.
On golf: aren't there some women only clubs? Nobody seems to kick up a fuss about them.
Mr. HYUFD, regional assemblies are the work of Satan.0 -
£13 million traded on BF....0
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"Hopefully", "maybe", "if".HYUFD said:TFS If a narrow No what hopefully will occur is devomax, plus English votes for English laws, maybe an English Parliament and regional assemblies
You've just neatly summed up the problem with the Bitter Together last-minute "Vow" (sic).0 -
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This is awfully exciting, isn't it?0
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Also, they have never voted before because they are happy with the status quo...peter_from_putney said:" Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo?"
Because they have confidence and belief in the Union and they don't wan't to see it broken up and Scotland facing severe jeopardy as a result.
Simples really!0 -
16 and 17 year old are guilty of the crime of inexperience. We all suffered it at that age. Their idealism usually runs unchecked because they have not be kicked enough by life yet to be more cautious in what they believe or in whom they can safely place their trust.Cyclefree said:I would have wanted Scots born residents of the UK to have a vote but given that it's 16 and 17 year olds who will have to live in the UK or an independent Scotland that's not an obviously daft decision, unless you assume that they're all half-wits or irredeemably frivolous.
Is a situation like this really a good way to extend your life experience? The YES is irreversible.
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That sounds a bit dramatic Moniker, although come to think about it I suppose Russian Roulette is a 5/1 shot also (pun intended).MonikerDiCanio said:
The UK is facing Russian Roulette odds. It'll probably be OK but it might have its cranial vault blown off.peter_from_putney said:
Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.0 -
I'm assuming given the ridiculously high turnout we'll have to wait ages for results to come in? Or are counter levels significantly higher than in GEs? I want to stay up to see as many results come in as possible but I can't realistically do an all-nighter...0
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Tweet:
Matt Chorley @MattChorley 6h
Had expected more of the world's media to be here. So far an Asian news agency, an Italian academic and @NigelpMorris
Would that Italian academic be Dr Andrea of Parma?0 -
On golf: aren't there some women only clubs? Nobody seems to kick up a fuss about them.
Or the Women's Institute. Blatantly sexist. Imagine if there was a Men's Institute.0 -
"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?0 -
It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.FrancisUrquhart said:
Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
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But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
All ready for the long night. Showered, sweets and crisps to keep me going. A wild night I know.0
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Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?0 -
Do you imagine that the noisy minority will ever forgive them? In any case the memory of the anti-english rhetoric will hang around whichever way it goes. A lot of English goodwill has been used up in this process.GIN1138 said:Surely if it's scenario 2 it won't matter because the "silent majority" will have spoken?
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Looks like they won't be going YES quite that strongly, 60/40 has minimal impact on the result (unless it really is a nailbiter) and the benefits of getting them engaged in the political process are pretty strong.Beverley_C said:
16 and 17 year old are guilty of the crime of inexperience. We all suffered it at that age. Their idealism usually runs unchecked because they have not be kicked enough by life yet to be more cautious in what they believe or in whom they can safely place their trust.
Is a situation like this really a good way to extend your life experience? The YES is irreversible.0 -
The talk this lunchtime in our tea room was all political - makes a change from normalcy. And we all thought our lack of consultation was disgraceful.Cyclefree said:Whatever the outcome, it's good to see people so politically engaged.
Perhaps a lesson for other political parties in this......
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I think Maguire should not tweet it (i) for the reason you gave (ii) because you want to manage expectations down (iii) and because you can end up looking rather silly.SeanT said:
That's either an incredibly stupid/misguided remark from NO - encouraging complacency from their voters, or they really do believe it, and we should soon see this reflected in the betting?peter_from_putney said:
This prediction is very close to mine in the PB.com/Ladbrokes competition as well as mirroring my average betting position.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
We have had similar rumours over the past few days - none of them with anything to back them up.numbertwelve said:
Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?
There is a lot of wishful thinking going on0 -
Evening all
Since the infamous YouGov poll of two weekends ago and the reaction, I've been increasingly of the view that a NO vote will lead to more serious problems for England and the Conservatives than a YES.
The wet dream for some of Labour expunged and a Conservative-UKIP coalition evaporates with a NO vote and the promises made to Scotland in the campaign will have to be delivered.
That in turn raises the sceptre of how England should be governed and the not unreasonable notion that the likes of Surrey, London, Cornwall and Brighton could and should have much greater freedom on the raising and spending of funds and in areas such as housing and planning clear of the centralisation of Whitehall. After all, if it's good enough for Lossiemouth, it should be good enough for Luton or Leicester.
This isn't about English Parliaments or Regional Assemblies which are unnecessary and unneeded. The structures for devolving power already exist.0 -
It's the final GOTV push. Facts are irrelevant until 10pm.numbertwelve said:
Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?Howard said:"Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?0 -
Miss Beverley C, that's true. Of more tangible note (if it's No) is the increased uncertainty over Scotland's long term future in the union which will have been noted by potential investors.0
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Almost no ramping from the YES side so far.
The £ still trading a cent up on the day so the money men think it will be a NO.0 -
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Probably not, but after a few day's of ranting and raving they'll shut up and move on. Life will have to continue...Beverley_C said:
Do you imagine that the noisy minority will ever forgive them?GIN1138 said:Surely if it's scenario 2 it won't matter because the "silent majority" will have spoken?
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Well, they didn't have such great predictive powers in 2008, did they?Eastwinger said:Almost no ramping from the YES side so far.
The £ still trading a cent up on the day so the money men think it will be a NO. 0 -
Well you don't normally want to manage expectations on your own side UP.GIN1138 said:
It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.FrancisUrquhart said:
Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
@peter_from_putney
Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.0 -
Where's the final balance of your betting Pong, if you don't mind my asking?Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
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Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.
New best prices:
Glasgow result
YES 4/6 (Lad)
NO 6/4 (PP)
Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.0 -
I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.Pong said:This is awfully exciting, isn't it?
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!0 -
It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.anothernick said:
But what about the other 77%?SeanT said:
Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.SouthamObserver said:
That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.Bob__Sykes said:I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!0 -
Really, why? They're only guessing.MaxPB said:
Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.DanSmith said:Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see0 -
Go YES!!!!....
..to women allowed in at St Andrews - about time welcome to 2015!!!!0 -
Can Maguire's source really have a good feel for how all of Scotland voted?? Is it to do with their tally numbers? Are they doing Exit Polls?0
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MD/SO Surely up the voters in each English region to decide in a referendum. At least more devolution to the county councils0
