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Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com

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  • YokesYokes Posts: 987
    I did reckon earlier this week that there was going to be an incoming hatchet job on Zahawi. Is the leak that HMRC are looking into him it or is their more?

    I'd bet on more

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,249

    Leon said:

    Let me sketch again what I witnessed in Rose, Montenegro

    It’s a sizeable, very pretty seaside village, with one large resort hotel, several smaller hotels, a little marina, water sports, half a dozen bustling bars and restaurants. I imagine in winter it is deeply quiet but on a summer Sunday it was rammed with tourists, with people parked all the way up the hill behind

    The beaches were crowded but I wasn’t on a beach, I was 20 metres away in a big well-known seafood restaurant which was also rammed with lunchers and drinkers, mainly Montenegrin/Croatian/Serb tourists but I heard some Germans, French etc

    The table next to me was hosting a crowd of people in their late 20s. One by one they got up to head off, mostly to go swimming (I saw them). They were gone 40 minutes at least (by that time I had to go myself, so they might have been gone for much longer), they left behind everything, quite casually: phones, bags, purses, money, sunnies, everything (as the picture shows)

    I do not believe you would do this in a big pub in a crowded holiday village anywhere in the UK, nor anywhere I know in the rest of Western Europe, with the POSSIBLE exception of Switzerland. No one leaves behind their phone in a big bustling bar for 40 minutes (minimum). It is not a thing

    I knew a guy who had his back nicked in a London pub a few years back. He had his flat keys in it and possibly something with his address on it, so the whole changing-the-locks thing had to ensue. But who does this sort of theft? Chancers? I suspect it's more likely to be criminal gangs doing a sweep.
    That's very common. I know entire groups of people who had their bags emptied in a London pub when they were all sat at a table with bags at their feet.

    It is definitely organized.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    edited July 10
    Interesting article thank you. Much is on the right lines.

    I maintain my long term position that there is currently no data whatsoever upon which you can distinguish the probabilities of a Labour led or Tory led government following the next election. Therefore both SKS and A.N.Other are both eminently beatable.

    My one big disagreement with TSE is on Badenoch. If appointed leader it changes everything about politics, and everything about the UK. All in good ways. It is even not impossible that if this happened it would in all sorts of circles be cool to be Tory, something impossible with all other candidates.

    Plainly a number of candidates are unappointable, which in Tory history does not disqualify them. My minority view is that Rishi isn one of them. If one of them is elected the odds change.

    The only two whose appointment change the odds in the Tories favour are Mordaunt and Badenoch. Both would make the chance of the next government being Tory something like 60%.

    For personal preference I want Hunt. For the country and politically I want Badenoch.
  • Or perhaps Starmer is better than people think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    edited July 10
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Let me sketch again what I witnessed in Rose, Montenegro

    It’s a sizeable, very pretty seaside village, with one large resort hotel, several smaller hotels, a little marina, water sports, half a dozen bustling bars and restaurants. I imagine in winter it is deeply quiet but on a summer Sunday it was rammed with tourists, with people parked all the way up the hill behind

    The beaches were crowded but I wasn’t on a beach, I was 20 metres away in a big well-known seafood restaurant which was also rammed with lunchers and drinkers, mainly Montenegrin/Croatian/Serb tourists but I heard some Germans, French etc

    The table next to me was hosting a crowd of people in their late 20s. One by one they got up to head off, mostly to go swimming (I saw them). They were gone 40 minutes at least (by that time I had to go myself, so they might have been gone for much longer), they left behind everything, quite casually: phones, bags, purses, money, sunnies, everything (as the picture shows)

    I do not believe you would do this in a big pub in a crowded holiday village anywhere in the UK, nor anywhere I know in the rest of Western Europe, with the POSSIBLE exception of Switzerland. No one leaves behind their phone in a big bustling bar for 40 minutes (minimum). It is not a thing

    Perhaps they are "some bodies" and nicking their stuff might not end well....

    I considered that, but they didn’t look like rich kids. More like neo-hippies and surf dudes

    I think Montenegro is simply a high trust, homogenous society. I’ve noticed people don’t lock houses or cars, either

    A quick google says there IS some crime - drugs, people trafficking - generally linked with Italy - but more minor crimes are notably rare - a few pickpockets in Kotor etc. Must be nice to feel that safe day-to-day
    Again difficult to tell...I once ended up having dinner with a man who washed Columbian drug money. A very respective looking individual, charming, engaging, outwardly no threat to anybody, just a regular guy, but bugger me did the restaurant staff nearly shit a load when he made a minor complaint about the view from his seat....cross him and I imagine you might have some scary men come and have more than a word.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,836
    Yokes said:

    I did reckon earlier this week that there was going to be an incoming hatchet job on Zahawi. Is the leak that HMRC are looking into him it or is their more?

    I'd bet on more

    The danger for Zahawi is that he may not even get a cabinet job afterwards. New PM is not going to appoint someone who soon might have to resign.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    I think the Conservatives would be mad to pick anyone other than Morduant. She's bright, articulate, and supported Brexit (but isn't mad).
    As opposed to Liz Truss, who opposed Brexit (but is mad)?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,308
    edited July 10
    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    I think Rishi is very transfer unfriendly.
    It’s possible he won’t even make the final two.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    Rose, Montenegro doesn't even appear to have a Wikipedia page unless it's under another name.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    I think the Conservatives would be mad to pick anyone other than Morduant. She's bright, articulate, and supported Brexit (but isn't mad).

    The Spectator tried to find the policies she is running on.

    There aren't any. Just platitudes.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,679

    I think Rishi is very transfer unfriendly.
    It’s possible he won’t even make the final two.

    I’d love it if we got Penny v Kemi
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    England are going to lose the cricket.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Andy_JS said:

    Rose, Montenegro doesn't even appear to have a Wikipedia page unless it's under another name.

    It smells as sweet, mind.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537

    Yokes said:

    I did reckon earlier this week that there was going to be an incoming hatchet job on Zahawi. Is the leak that HMRC are looking into him it or is their more?

    I'd bet on more

    The danger for Zahawi is that he may not even get a cabinet job afterwards. New PM is not going to appoint someone who soon might have to resign.
    He is certainly not going to continue as Chancellor.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    The only people that matter are conservative mps and the membership at present
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Rose, Montenegro doesn't even appear to have a Wikipedia page unless it's under another name.

    it may have multiple names. Sometimes if they have long Slavic names they adopt a more western name for tourist reasons

    Montenegro itself is actually Crna Gora
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,660
    Has Truss not declared she's standing yet?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821

    Has Truss not declared she's standing yet?

    Tomorrow?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Rose, Montenegro doesn't even appear to have a Wikipedia page unless it's under another name.

    Here it is, but it’s in Serbo Croat


    https://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Росе
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868

    England are going to lose the cricket.

    Can’t see it. 84 from 6 overs, that’s 14 an over!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    Up to a point in London. There are, or were, rules of thumb about when you should get Uber or a black cab but really Uber was just an easier way of getting a minicab, which had always existed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    edited July 10
    Sandpit said:

    England are going to lose the cricket.

    Can’t see it. 84 from 6 overs, that’s 14 an over!
    You are obviously new to being an England cricket follower ;-)

    More seriously, I believe 15 an over from last 4-5 overs (with plenty of wickets) is now for elite T20 crickets seen as absolutely fine.

    I have recently just downloaded all the data from every IPL match ever...am going to take a look at some things like this.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited July 10
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
    We stayed overnight in Leeds two weeks ago with my daughter while taking our granddaughter back to her apartment

    We all had dinner in the Premier Inn and my daughter ordered a uber to take our granddaughter back to her apartment

    It was amazing with the driver identified plus the route plus the time plus the price and the taxi was tracked all the way and at the end the fare and tip was automatically taken

    I would use it anywhere it was available

    Very impressed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
    We stayed overnight in Leeds two weeks ago with my daughter while taking our granddaughter back to her apartment

    We all had dinner in the Premier Inn and my daughter ordered a uber to take our granddaughter back to her apartment

    It was amazing with the driver identified plus the route plus the time plus the price and the taxi was tracked all the way and at the end the fare and tip was automatically taken

    I would use it anywhere it was available

    Very impressed
    Hence their worldwide success. They are also a godsend when travelling in obscure remote countries

    Georgia has Lyft not Uber and it enabled me to hop around Tbilisi like I had a chauffeur. No language problems. Didn’t even need to speak to the driver
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
    We stayed overnight in Leeds two weeks ago with my daughter while taking our granddaughter back to her apartment

    We all had dinner in the Premier Inn and my daughter ordered a uber to take our granddaughter back to her apartment

    It was amazing with the driver identified plus the route plus the time plus the price and the taxi was tracked all the way and at the end the fare and tip was automatically taken

    I would use it anywhere it was available

    Very impressed
    Hence their worldwide success. They are also a godsend when travelling in obscure remote countries

    Georgia has Lyft not Uber and it enabled me to hop around Tbilisi like I had a chauffeur. No language problems. Didn’t even need to speak to the driver
    Do you only speak to Albanian drivers? :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
    We stayed overnight in Leeds two weeks ago with my daughter while taking our granddaughter back to her apartment

    We all had dinner in the Premier Inn and my daughter ordered a uber to take our granddaughter back to her apartment

    It was amazing with the driver identified plus the route plus the time plus the price and the taxi was tracked all the way and at the end the fare and tip was automatically taken

    I would use it anywhere it was available

    Very impressed
    Hence their worldwide success. They are also a godsend when travelling in obscure remote countries

    Georgia has Lyft not Uber and it enabled me to hop around Tbilisi like I had a chauffeur. No language problems. Didn’t even need to speak to the driver
    It's the Uber Lux/Exec categories that have got me hooked.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    MISTY said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    I think the Conservatives would be mad to pick anyone other than Morduant. She's bright, articulate, and supported Brexit (but isn't mad).

    The Spectator tried to find the policies she is running on.

    There aren't any. Just platitudes.
    Penny Mordaunt is in favour of motherhood, apple pie and old war films but there is precious little evidence she could run a whelk stall after being in the Cabinet for about ten minutes.

    Mind you, most of the others seem to be running against their own record in government. Still, it worked for Boris.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    Tobias Ellwood endorses Zahawi.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    Great bowling from Topley.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,874
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437

    So the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    I know that's code for "won't cut taxes while there's a massive deficit", but I'll repeat- the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    Have the Conservatives all finally gone bonkers?

    And John Redwood says Sunak is following pro-EU economic policies, that would be the Leave backing Sunak.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    edited July 10

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    The only people that matter are conservative mps and the membership at present
    Yes but those MPs are going to be studying the public opinion polls to see which candidate can best protect their own seat government against the depredations of the boring man (red wall) or the invisible man (blue wall). That is how Major won; that is how Boris won. It was never about policy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    So the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    I know that's code for "won't cut taxes while there's a massive deficit", but I'll repeat- the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    Have the Conservatives all finally gone bonkers?

    Perhaps right wing tories have discovered Modern Monetary Theory? Or magic money tree as it is also known.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    Brilliant use of the review, pitching just in line.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    The biggest plus for me is being able to pick up a taxi on holiday, even in less developed countries, without having to deal with the meter being off, or the taxi driver locking you in until you pay what he demands, or being taken advantage of generally.
    I've never used an Uber. Useless fact.
    We stayed overnight in Leeds two weeks ago with my daughter while taking our granddaughter back to her apartment

    We all had dinner in the Premier Inn and my daughter ordered a uber to take our granddaughter back to her apartment

    It was amazing with the driver identified plus the route plus the time plus the price and the taxi was tracked all the way and at the end the fare and tip was automatically taken

    I would use it anywhere it was available

    Very impressed
    Hence their worldwide success. They are also a godsend when travelling in obscure remote countries

    Georgia has Lyft not Uber and it enabled me to hop around Tbilisi like I had a chauffeur. No language problems. Didn’t even need to speak to the driver
    It's the Uber Lux/Exec categories that have got me hooked.
    Order Uber at chucking out time, long wait. Pay a bit extra for Uber Lux/Exec and often one will magically appear.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,812
    Leon said:

    Let me sketch again what I witnessed in Rose, Montenegro

    It’s a sizeable, very pretty seaside village, with one large resort hotel, several smaller hotels, a little marina, water sports, half a dozen bustling bars and restaurants. I imagine in winter it is deeply quiet but on a summer Sunday it was rammed with tourists, with people parked all the way up the hill behind

    The beaches were crowded but I wasn’t on a beach, I was 20 metres away in a big well-known seafood restaurant which was also rammed with lunchers and drinkers, mainly Montenegrin/Croatian/Serb tourists but I heard some Germans, French etc

    The table next to me was hosting a crowd of people in their late 20s. One by one they got up to head off, mostly to go swimming (I saw them). They were gone 40 minutes at least (by that time I had to go myself, so they might have been gone for much longer), they left behind everything, quite casually: phones, bags, purses, money, sunnies, everything (as the picture shows)

    I do not believe you would do this in a big pub in a crowded holiday village anywhere in the UK, nor anywhere I know in the rest of Western Europe, with the POSSIBLE exception of Switzerland. No one leaves behind their phone in a big bustling bar for 40 minutes (minimum). It is not a thing

    Switzerland certainly IMO, and I'd be pretty relaxed about it in Scandinavia too - often went out without bothering to lock the door in both. The one time I had something removed turned out to be because someone had taken it to hand in to the owner for safe keeping.

    Obvs there is a % chance that it goes wrong, ranging from maybe 0.01% in those places to more in, say, London. But I'd think you could do it in London too with an 80% chance it'd be OK.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,749
    edited July 10
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    Perhaps the MPs have wised up to the fact that they daren't give the members the opportunity to choose a loony
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,836

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    The only people that matter are conservative mps and the membership at present
    Yes but those MPs are going to be studying the public opinion polls to see which candidate can best protect their own seat government against the depredations of the boring man (red wall) or the invisible man (blue wall). That is how Major won; that is how Boris won. It was never about policy.
    The blue wall MPs who have declared are still heavily for Sunak, the MPs for Taunton and South Cambs being the latest.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286

    So the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    I know that's code for "won't cut taxes while there's a massive deficit", but I'll repeat- the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    Have the Conservatives all finally gone bonkers?

    Perhaps right wing tories have discovered Modern Monetary Theory? Or magic money tree as it is also known.
    Mrs Thatcher had two magic money trees and won three elections. Don't knock MMT or Mrs T.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Leon said:

    Let me sketch again what I witnessed in Rose, Montenegro

    It’s a sizeable, very pretty seaside village, with one large resort hotel, several smaller hotels, a little marina, water sports, half a dozen bustling bars and restaurants. I imagine in winter it is deeply quiet but on a summer Sunday it was rammed with tourists, with people parked all the way up the hill behind

    The beaches were crowded but I wasn’t on a beach, I was 20 metres away in a big well-known seafood restaurant which was also rammed with lunchers and drinkers, mainly Montenegrin/Croatian/Serb tourists but I heard some Germans, French etc

    The table next to me was hosting a crowd of people in their late 20s. One by one they got up to head off, mostly to go swimming (I saw them). They were gone 40 minutes at least (by that time I had to go myself, so they might have been gone for much longer), they left behind everything, quite casually: phones, bags, purses, money, sunnies, everything (as the picture shows)

    I do not believe you would do this in a big pub in a crowded holiday village anywhere in the UK, nor anywhere I know in the rest of Western Europe, with the POSSIBLE exception of Switzerland. No one leaves behind their phone in a big bustling bar for 40 minutes (minimum). It is not a thing

    I reckon you could do it in Newent. Apart from Foley Road, of course.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    She laid out her ideas in her recent book. Not everything I would agree with, but a coherent philosophy.

    https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/greater-britain-after-the-storm-penny-mordaunt
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,874
    edited July 10
    @hyufd. My apologies. I asked you a question this morning and then I buggered off before your reply. I didn't mean to ignore you.

    To reiterate I was commenting on the reports today of senior constitution experts and senior Conservatives who were very worried about Boris breaking the constitution apart. Gillian Shepherd relieved it survived. They were particularly concerned about him asking for a dissolution.

    I asked you whether you were concerned about this. You replied that we don't have a written constitution. I don't think I can let you get away with that. Written or not we do have a constitution and of all the people who post here I expect you to be the greatest defender of such. You post frequently such.

    So what do you think of these senior experts and Conservatives who were so worried about his behaviour. Surely they are your type of Conservative.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    So the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    I know that's code for "won't cut taxes while there's a massive deficit", but I'll repeat- the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    Have the Conservatives all finally gone bonkers?

    Perhaps right wing tories have discovered Modern Monetary Theory? Or magic money tree as it is also known.
    Mrs Thatcher had two magic money trees and won three elections. Don't knock MMT or Mrs T.
    With North Sea oil and the privatisations she did have two large pots of money. An incoming PM wouldn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Awesome punning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    So the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    I know that's code for "won't cut taxes while there's a massive deficit", but I'll repeat- the critique of Sunak is that he's insufficiently right wing?

    Have the Conservatives all finally gone bonkers?

    Yes, although you could argue it happened a while ago.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    She laid out her ideas in her recent book. Not everything I would agree with, but a coherent philosophy.

    https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/greater-britain-after-the-storm-penny-mordaunt
    Evidently the Spectator couldn't afford to furnish itself with a copy - times is hard.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,958

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Discussing why the polls are wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    England going to blow it here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Let me sketch again what I witnessed in Rose, Montenegro

    It’s a sizeable, very pretty seaside village, with one large resort hotel, several smaller hotels, a little marina, water sports, half a dozen bustling bars and restaurants. I imagine in winter it is deeply quiet but on a summer Sunday it was rammed with tourists, with people parked all the way up the hill behind

    The beaches were crowded but I wasn’t on a beach, I was 20 metres away in a big well-known seafood restaurant which was also rammed with lunchers and drinkers, mainly Montenegrin/Croatian/Serb tourists but I heard some Germans, French etc

    The table next to me was hosting a crowd of people in their late 20s. One by one they got up to head off, mostly to go swimming (I saw them). They were gone 40 minutes at least (by that time I had to go myself, so they might have been gone for much longer), they left behind everything, quite casually: phones, bags, purses, money, sunnies, everything (as the picture shows)

    I do not believe you would do this in a big pub in a crowded holiday village anywhere in the UK, nor anywhere I know in the rest of Western Europe, with the POSSIBLE exception of Switzerland. No one leaves behind their phone in a big bustling bar for 40 minutes (minimum). It is not a thing

    I reckon you could do it in Newent. Apart from Foley Road, of course.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
    How many ducks can you grab at once?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,874
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    She laid out her ideas in her recent book. Not everything I would agree with, but a coherent philosophy.

    https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/greater-britain-after-the-storm-penny-mordaunt
    Sorry not the point I was referring to. My mistake for not making clear. I was referring to polls being driven by recognition. Actually as I have said as a LD she is my biggest fear as Tory leader.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    England going to blow it here.

    Nope
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476

    Absolutely.

    Starmer is VERY beatable 👍

    But it is not the presidential contest Boris Johnson thought it was and he has just learned that reality. So Labour are very beatable, which has been a reality throughout my lifetime and beyond.

    The faithful are getting very animated. Come on Liz, you can do it!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    I could bowl better than this
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Clever bowling
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821

    England going to blow it here.

    Nope
    Not over yet....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,004
    edited July 10
    .

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    She laid out her ideas in her recent book. Not everything I would agree with, but a coherent philosophy.

    https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/greater-britain-after-the-storm-penny-mordaunt
    Evidently the Spectator couldn't afford to furnish itself with a copy - times is hard.
    Their scribblers don’t have the attention span to read a whole book.
    We know from @Leon that they get bored easily.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    Leon said:

    I could bowl better than this

    Got him though! MOEEEEENNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Awesome punning.
    Yes

    I am dyeing to find a Mordaunt gag, but nothing....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    rcs1000 said:

    Convenient it only comes out after Macron re-election...

    They detail the extensive help Uber got from leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and ex-EU commissioner Neelie Kroes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

    I think most people - in the US, the UK or France - are pretty glad that old school restrictive practice taxi laws were changed. It's dramatically lowered the cost of transportation, and increased its avalability.
    Up to a point in London. There are, or were, rules of thumb about when you should get Uber or a black cab but really Uber was just an easier way of getting a minicab, which had always existed.
    Uber has truly revolutionised the US. In large parts of America, cabs were extremely difficult to get, and numbers were artificially restricted.

    In most US states, anyone can drive for Uber, so long as they have a clean driving license. It means there are hundreds of thousands of people who Uber part time. I was in Austin, and I met a mother of a baby, who drives an Uber for three or four hours a day, to get a break and to earn a bit of money.

    The barrier for stopping willing buyer, willing seller needs to be a high one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    Those last few blows from Jordon at end of England's Innings were massive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    21 from last over is absolutely do-able.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    MISTY said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    I think the Conservatives would be mad to pick anyone other than Morduant. She's bright, articulate, and supported Brexit (but isn't mad).

    The Spectator tried to find the policies she is running on.

    There aren't any. Just platitudes.
    Bit like Starmer, then...😀
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Awesome punning.
    Yes

    I am dyeing to find a Mordaunt gag, but nothing....
    One does not simply walk into Mordaunt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    21 from last over is absolutely do-able.

    England win
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    edited July 10
    Number 38 in an ongoing series: Great Places to Watch Cricket


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868

    21 from last over is absolutely do-able.

    It’s also absolutely miss-able, as demonstrated.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    Leon said:

    Number 38 in an ongoing series: Great Places to Watch Cricket

    You are definitely doing a cracking job for the Montegergo tourist board...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    You do know she wrote a book, right?

    She wrote it herself, and it is articulate and contains a clear vision of Britain. She's a bit more free market than Cameron, stronger on defence (even more prescient as it was written before Ukraine), a little less Green, and broadly - but not insanely - socially liberal.

    She's clearly to the right of the Cameroons, but also not clearly on the fringes of the party.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,679
    Have taught the hound to pose on benches. In the local Commonwealth War Graves cemetery

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,821
    Brilliant over from Jordan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Awesome punning.
    Yes

    I am dyeing to find a Mordaunt gag, but nothing....
    I did think of one which ended up on the cutting room.

    One does not simply walk into Number 10/Mordaunt/Mordor meets the march for Leadsom that Penny organised in 2016 but then I realised it was shite.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    Leon said:

    This is how little crime there is in Montenegro

    Big bustling (excellent) seafood restaurant in a pretty seaside village. Hundreds of people nearby

    The group next to me - late 20s, jolly - have all, in sequence, stood up and walked away. Temporarily leaving behind 2 phones, a purse, several bags, sunglasses, car keys

    Incredible. Was Britain once like this?


    You can do that in Sweden, Cyprus, and most of Scotland.
    You can also do it in any country where bar and restaurant bombings are common.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,679

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    What is the other half ?
    Awesome punning.
    Yes

    I am dyeing to find a Mordaunt gag, but nothing....
    I did think of one which ended up on the cutting room.

    One does not simply walk into Number 10/Mordaunt/Mordor meets the march for Leadsom that Penny organised in 2016 but then I realised it was shite.
    It seems far more daunting than you imagined
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?

    And by being Truss
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,806
    I am very surprised at the rise in numbers for Patel. For an undeclared candidate, she is doing very well
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Have taught the hound to pose on benches. In the local Commonwealth War Graves cemetery

    He looks cute, but hot
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121

    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?

    Still a long way to go. I think we will have a clearer picture in a few days when everyone has declared their candidacy. Even then we may need to wait until the first ballot to get a clear lie of the land.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    My puns would work better if people could spell, and realised that I can
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?

    Still a long way to go. I think we will have a clearer picture in a few days when everyone has declared their candidacy. Even then we may need to wait until the first ballot to get a clear lie of the land.
    The rules to be announced tomorrow evening by the 1922 should accelerate matters especially if they require minimum number of backers
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Yokes said:

    I did reckon earlier this week that there was going to be an incoming hatchet job on Zahawi. Is the leak that HMRC are looking into him it or is their more?

    I'd bet on more

    I’m amazed that HMRC investigating the incumbent Chancellor hasn’t gained more traction in the media.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 626
    Thread Header - "Starmer is Eminently Beatable"

    TSE channelling his inner sadomasochism ...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    Quick heatwave from hell weather model update.

    Lovers of cool conditions will be relieved that the latest GFS run no longer models 3 days above 40C next weekend like thd one earlier today. It merely hits a fresh 39C next Monday.

    The met office model has gone somewhat the other way, to hotter conditions, as has the Canadian one. We wait to see what the European model shows.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121

    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?

    Still a long way to go. I think we will have a clearer picture in a few days when everyone has declared their candidacy. Even then we may need to wait until the first ballot to get a clear lie of the land.
    The rules to be announced tomorrow evening by the 1922 should accelerate matters especially if they require minimum number of backers
    Agreed. With any luck they’ll shift the minimum to 25 or so to help weed the no-hopers out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    TimS said:

    Quick heatwave from hell weather model update.

    Lovers of cool conditions will be relieved that the latest GFS run no longer models 3 days above 40C next weekend like thd one earlier today. It merely hits a fresh 39C next Monday.

    The met office model has gone somewhat the other way, to hotter conditions, as has the Canadian one. We wait to see what the European model shows.

    BOO. I was quite looking forward to the drama of 40C

    Oh well. 39C will have to do
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Yokes said:

    I did reckon earlier this week that there was going to be an incoming hatchet job on Zahawi. Is the leak that HMRC are looking into him it or is their more?

    I'd bet on more

    I’m amazed that HMRC investigating the incumbent Chancellor hasn’t gained more traction in the media.
    It appears he has denied the HMRC are investigating him
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790

    Sunak adding votes with Mordaunt second and now Tugendhat ahead of Truss

    Has Truss blown it by delaying her declaration?

    Still a long way to go. I think we will have a clearer picture in a few days when everyone has declared their candidacy. Even then we may need to wait until the first ballot to get a clear lie of the land.
    The qualification post is about 120ish, isn't it? The fruitloop right has lots of potential for consolidation yet. And then, what happens if the membership vote is Mordaunt - Badencoch?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    TimS said:

    Quick heatwave from hell weather model update.

    Lovers of cool conditions will be relieved that the latest GFS run no longer models 3 days above 40C next weekend like thd one earlier today. It merely hits a fresh 39C next Monday.

    The met office model has gone somewhat the other way, to hotter conditions, as has the Canadian one. We wait to see what the European model shows.

    Downgrade of the heat as we approach...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Er…. Ruth Davidson is suddenly fourth favourite for Next PM, at 5/1?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,874
    edited July 10
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Tugendhat leaps to third place in Tory MPs endorsements behind Sunak and Mordaunt after Karen
    Bradley's backing

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1546162976104878081?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I think this is starting to shape up very, very badly for the conservatives.

    The members are going to get a choice of tweedle dum or tweedle dee from the left of the party. Sunak plus one.

    However a Sunday Times poll today had Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat polling equal best in the redwall seats of the Tory leadership contenders in terms of net approval.

    Even though Starmer polls better than all the Tory contenders now in the redwall with Boris gone

    https://twitter.com/thom_brooks/status/1546148929229692930?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
    Do you ever have a view independent from your choice of polls

    Half the point of this site is polls
    Surely that poll is essentially driven by recognition. Most voters can name very few politicos, much less what they stand for.

    Nobody knows what Mordaunt and Tugendhat stand for. Not even the Spectator. They tried to find Mordaunt's policies in vain through the vacuous bullsh8t of her launch.

    I made that point earlier today, HYUFD didn't accept it.
    You do know she wrote a book, right?

    She wrote it herself, and it is articulate and contains a clear vision of Britain. She's a bit more free market than Cameron, stronger on defence (even more prescient as it was written before Ukraine), a little less Green, and broadly - but not insanely - socially liberal.

    She's clearly to the right of the Cameroons, but also not clearly on the fringes of the party.
    I answered that earlier. My comment was badly worded. I was agreeing with the comment that the polls are meaningless when some people have high recognition and some not. I wasn't commenting on Penny Mordant (although that wasn't obvious) and in fact I consider her the biggest risk to the LDs who I support and which I have previously said.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    edited July 10

    Tobias Ellwood endorses Zahawi.

    I had a vague sense that Tobias Ellwood was a halfway sensible Tory, and he's just gone and dispelled that.

    This is shaping up to be a rather bizarre contest.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721

    TimS said:

    Quick heatwave from hell weather model update.

    Lovers of cool conditions will be relieved that the latest GFS run no longer models 3 days above 40C next weekend like thd one earlier today. It merely hits a fresh 39C next Monday.

    The met office model has gone somewhat the other way, to hotter conditions, as has the Canadian one. We wait to see what the European model shows.

    Downgrade of the heat as we approach...
    The 06z was a big upgrade on last night, and the ensembles continue to push higher. Get that hat ready and seasoned.
This discussion has been closed.