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Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com

This could simply reflect that Johnson’s deficiencies are so glaring that they far overshadow Starmer’s strengths. But our tracker data shows his reputation is not strong: just 22% say he seems like a PM in waiting, 36% say he's "competent", 22% "strong"https://t.co/8F5q28XjKn pic.twitter.com/ljg68Fzaf9

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Test
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Oh was that a first?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Third day of Eid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,915
    Sandpit said:

    Third day of Eid.

    What's the most important religious festival in Berwick?

    Tweed Mubarak!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Absolutely.

    Starmer is VERY beatable 👍
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Sandpit said:

    Third day of Eid.

    Dundee is having Ramadam in the park this afternoon. Seems to be attracting a fair old number.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I think the Tories' position is recoverable. People were right about the party scores not being too bad. It was Boris's perceived ability to undertake a recovery which changed, since all his time was taken up with dealing with all his lies and scandals.

    Interesting summary by TSE though

    Chance of winning GE, the 'cleanskins' - Hunt, Tugendhat, Mordaunt

    No chance of winning - Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, Badenoch

    Honourable defeat/largest party - Sunak, Javid

    I've never really been interested in Truss enough to figure out why she seems to provokesuch strong reaction.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,161
    So the ex Japanese President was killed because the guy who did it thought he was connected to the Moonies. Are there any other well known political figures with links to the Moonies?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Of course he's beatable. Always has been.
    He isn't very good.
    Doesn't necessarily mean he will be though.
    The economy is dire. And getting worse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    The BE odds have Mordaunt too high and Badenoch too low IMO.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Braverman will probably get knocked out fairly early and most her support will transfer to Badenoch.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    I am really amazed that anyone can doubt the conqueror of Durham Constabulary.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    My housemate who rarely engages politically caught a bit of Starmer being interviewed on the news and she immediately picked up on his lack of charisma in the way he speaks, his tendency to repeat himself and the lack of substance in what he actually said

    She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.

    But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.

    If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.

    Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I was wondering how many times TSE has made the "more fucked than a stepmom joke".

    Part 1

    Boris Johnson = Stepmom and stepsister on Pornhub.
    Chelsea = Stepmom on pornhub.
    Boris = Stepmom on a niche website Tories with Boris Johnson as leader the next election = Stepmom on a niche website.
    Boris Johnson = Stepmom on a niche website.
    Australia = Stepmom Jos Buttler = Stepson
    We're more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub.
    He’s in stepmom territory. He’s also a Brexiteer which is why he loses and Hunt holds on easily.
    I officially declare Boris Johnson more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub whatever the result tonight.
    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.
    Wales, more f*cked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
    Final thought for the night, don't have nightmares. Boris Johnson = Stepmom on Pornhub.
    Yup, you're like a stepmom on a niche website. Order in plenty of hot broth.
    Boeing are going to be more fecked than a stepmom on pornhub aren't they?
    Right now Manchester United are getting more fecked than a stepmom on pornhub.
    If you've missed the match tonight then here's a summary. Ukraine = Stepmom on pornhub England = Stepson on pornhub
    It took all my self restraint to use doomed in the headline than 'more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub'.
    We're more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1303450343452422151
    If this Opinium poll turns out be accurate then Labour are more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
    My predictions hold true. 1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub. 2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
    Not subtle enough, it's more 'Trump's victory means America, if not the world, is more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.'
    Mrs Sunak announces she will pay UK taxes on her overseas income. Still think Rishi is more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub over his green card.
    Congratulations. You do realise your sleep patterns for the foreseeable future are like a stepmom on pornhub, totally fucked.
    There are stepmoms on Pornhub less fucked than Boris Johnson right now. Minister: “We think some of the whips have flipped”. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1483514495150526475
    What a dump and even more scarily this is the place the government is hoping that comes up with a vaccine? We’re more fecked than a Stepmom on pornhub.

    It’s a lovely day. Go out and enjoy the sun
    I've been out weeding the garden. It's like 20 degrees out there, it's like the fucking Congo.
    It’s your wet bulbs, Farooq.

    Death Valley isn’t surrounded by water.

    Other places are hotter longer than us, but they have air con expecting it - I was still using sofa blanket in June.
    Can we leave my wet bulb out of this?
    It’s completely central to it Farooq. Once your wet bulb reaches 100% of wet bulbness, you will die.

    The front of tonight’s Daily Star will tell you that you have only about 7 days.

    In the alternative scenario, if you are going out on the 30th, wear a bra.
    If any of you are thinking of coming north to avoid the heat: we don't want you. Go to Rwanda instead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Tres said:

    So the ex Japanese President was killed because the guy who did it thought he was connected to the Moonies. Are there any other well known political figures with links to the Moonies?

    I always thought that Corbyn had a bit of a Snufkin thing going on. Oh wait, that was the Moomins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I don't know why, but I found Hunt's straightforward admission McVey will be his Deputy PM to help broaden his appeal to be unusual.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Selling points

    1. Not Corbyn
    2. Perfect antidote to Boris

    1. Nor is anyone else
    2. Obsolete
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    kle4 said:

    I think the Tories' position is recoverable. People were right about the party scores not being too bad. It was Boris's perceived ability to undertake a recovery which changed, since all his time was taken up with dealing with all his lies and scandals.

    Interesting summary by TSE though

    Chance of winning GE, the 'cleanskins' - Hunt, Tugendhat, Mordaunt

    No chance of winning - Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, Badenoch

    Honourable defeat/largest party - Sunak, Javid

    I've never really been interested in Truss enough to figure out why she seems to provokesuch strong reaction.

    Perhaps the issue with Truss (and same with Sunak) is visibly trying too hard to self-promote, which rarely plays well in the UK. Ideally do try really hard to self-promote but make it look like you don't care hence the Boris ill fitting suits and unkempt hair.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Jamei said:

    Tory member here again. A shame Wallace isn't standing. I want someone honest who can actually make decisions and who will boldly tackle domestic productivity and economic growth whilst being strong on foreign affairs, and push these things to win the next GE. The less candidates talk about Brexit or trans stuff the more I'll like them. Tugendhat top of my list right now, Badenoch I'd definitely like to hear more from. Sunak talks cautious finances but splurged billions on fraudsters and was a feeble chancellor, but I'd vote for him over the others: Javid nice but weak, Braverman an ERG-loon trans-war obsessive, Hunt a China dove and Mordaunt just plain dim. Shapps I love because I'm convinced he's an under-cover comedian.

    PB4TOMT. Quite right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    edited July 2022

    My housemate who rarely engages politically caught a bit of Starmer being interviewed on the news and she immediately picked up on his lack of charisma in the way he speaks, his tendency to repeat himself and the lack of substance in what he actually said

    She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.

    But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.

    If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.

    Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.

    He seems very conscious that most news media will only use a few seconds of the interview so he repeats his key point again and again. When you get a longer play it just looks positively weird. Same words again and again.

    Edit, see how badly that reads?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

    Watch his Afghanistan speech, it girded my loins.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Absolutely.

    Starmer is VERY beatable 👍

    Isn't that what Etonians like to say about anyone ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    kle4 said:

    I think the Tories' position is recoverable. People were right about the party scores not being too bad. It was Boris's perceived ability to undertake a recovery which changed, since all his time was taken up with dealing with all his lies and scandals.

    Interesting summary by TSE though

    Chance of winning GE, the 'cleanskins' - Hunt, Tugendhat, Mordaunt

    No chance of winning - Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, Badenoch

    Honourable defeat/largest party - Sunak, Javid

    I've never really been interested in Truss enough to figure out why she seems to provokesuch strong reaction.

    Call me old-fashioned, but if you exclude all the people who were still publicly supporting Boris Johnson as prime minister a week ago, your task would be considerably easier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Are you f*cking kidding me?

    JRM's leadership shopping list: Principled, no baggage, and a winner.

    https://order-order.com/2022/07/10/rees-moggs-leadership-shopping-list-principled-no-baggage-and-a-winner/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

    Watch his Afghanistan speech, it girded my loins.
    That's unfortunate, there's a 14th month NHS waiting list for an ungirding operation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Jamei said:

    Tory member here again. A shame Wallace isn't standing. I want someone honest who can actually make decisions and who will boldly tackle domestic productivity and economic growth whilst being strong on foreign affairs, and push these things to win the next GE. The less candidates talk about Brexit or trans stuff the more I'll like them. Tugendhat top of my list right now, Badenoch I'd definitely like to hear more from. Sunak talks cautious finances but splurged billions on fraudsters and was a feeble chancellor, but I'd vote for him over the others: Javid nice but weak, Braverman an ERG-loon trans-war obsessive, Hunt a China dove and Mordaunt just plain dim. Shapps I love because I'm convinced he's an under-cover comedian.

    On this morning's evidence, Shapps looks the best of the bunch. Yes, they really are that bad.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043

    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

    Yes, it remains a mystery.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022

    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

    Aaron rates him

    Is not truss

    Is not anyone else from johnson cabinet either

    went after Johnson over Air Doggie Woggie

    not as dull as SKS

    ETA Strapline: Make A Necessity Of Virtue

    (bilingual pun)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    kle4 said:

    I think the Tories' position is recoverable. People were right about the party scores not being too bad. It was Boris's perceived ability to undertake a recovery which changed, since all his time was taken up with dealing with all his lies and scandals.

    Interesting summary by TSE though

    Chance of winning GE, the 'cleanskins' - Hunt, Tugendhat, Mordaunt

    No chance of winning - Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, Badenoch

    Honourable defeat/largest party - Sunak, Javid

    I've never really been interested in Truss enough to figure out why she seems to provokesuch strong reaction.

    Uncanny valley.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459
    Of course Starmer is eminently beatable.

    But to give a slightly alternative view, Starmer may prosper with an opponent other than Boris. He struggled with Boris's unorthodox schtick - his refusal to answer any questions with a straight answer, his bizarre world-beating boosterism, and so on. Against a more rational and sober opponent, one more like him, Starmer may feel on safer ground and become more confident. It's possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Just saw Penny's pitch. Bit kitsch tbh but I can clearly see her appeal.
    Sunak (Experience)
    Mordaunt (Red white and blue, forces, brexiteer)
    Zahawi (The toadies toady)
    Badenoch (War on woke)
    Tugendhat (General appeal, Forces)

    What's the usp of Javid ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Or Truss ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    kle4 said:

    I saw Tug-End being interviewed earlier. Nothing. Absolutely nothing about him.

    Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.

    Watch his Afghanistan speech, it girded my loins.
    That's unfortunate, there's a 14th month NHS waiting list for an ungirding operation.
    I'd assume TSE would go private for his privates.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    DavidL said:

    My housemate who rarely engages politically caught a bit of Starmer being interviewed on the news and she immediately picked up on his lack of charisma in the way he speaks, his tendency to repeat himself and the lack of substance in what he actually said

    She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.

    But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.

    If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.

    Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.

    He seems very conscious that most news media will only use a few seconds of the interview so he repeats his key point again and again. When you get a longer play it just looks positively weird. Same words again and again.

    Edit, see how badly that reads?
    You could say the same for Tugendhat's 'clean start' interview.
    Sounded weird to me.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Pulpstar said:

    Just saw Penny's pitch. Bit kitsch tbh but I can clearly see her appeal.
    Sunak (Experience)
    Mordaunt (Red white and blue, forces, brexiteer)
    Zahawi (The toadies toady)
    Badenoch (War on woke)
    Tugendhat (General appeal, Forces)

    What's the usp of Javid ?

    Prayer bteakfasts, as far as I can judge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Starmer is beatable but the Tories polling start point is dreadful.
    New leader has a big hill to climb and undo Boris' damage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Or Truss ?

    Being a better trade sec than Liam Fox, just remembered lol
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The Tories have done well on the diversity front.

    There are 10 leadership candidates Two of Jewish heritage, one Kurdish, one Nigerian, one Pakistani, two Indian and one Irish. A wokeist delight !

    It makes the Labour leadership contests look like a gathering of the friends of Eddie Booth in 'Love Thy Neighbour' from the 1970s.

    (It is true the Tory leadership hopefuls are also diverse in being a mix of fantasists, tax avoiders, billionaires and psychopaths, but you can't have everything).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Pulpstar said:

    Just saw Penny's pitch. Bit kitsch tbh but I can clearly see her appeal.
    Sunak (Experience)
    Mordaunt (Red white and blue, forces, brexiteer)
    Zahawi (The toadies toady)
    Badenoch (War on woke)
    Tugendhat (General appeal, Forces)

    What's the usp of Javid ?

    Serial resigner ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,238
    Cheers. From the exquisite Venetian village of Rose, on the Lusica Peninsula, Kotor Bay, Montenegro



  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Interesting start
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    I don't know why, but I found Hunt's straightforward admission McVey will be his Deputy PM to help broaden his appeal to be unusual.

    I think it may lose him some support because many Tories on his wing of the party don't trust Esther McVey.
  • DavidL said:

    My housemate who rarely engages politically caught a bit of Starmer being interviewed on the news and she immediately picked up on his lack of charisma in the way he speaks, his tendency to repeat himself and the lack of substance in what he actually said

    She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.

    But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.

    If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.

    Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.

    He seems very conscious that most news media will only use a few seconds of the interview so he repeats his key point again and again. When you get a longer play it just looks positively weird. Same words again and again.

    Edit, see how badly that reads?
    In a reckless and provocative manner
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,700


    The Tories have done well on the diversity front.

    There are 10 leadership candidates Two of Jewish heritage, one Kurdish, one Nigerian, one Pakistani, two Indian and one Irish. A wokeist delight !

    It makes the Labour leadership contests look like a gathering of the friends of Eddie Booth in 'Love Thy Neighbour' from the 1970s.

    (It is true the Tory leadership hopefuls are also diverse in being a mix of fantasists, tax avoiders, billionaires and psychopaths, but you can't have everything).

    Suella Braverman's Buddhist cabinet would be the most diverse ever. "Make me one with everything."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited July 2022
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Esther McVey backing Jeremy Hunt is the political equivalent of Sol Campbell going from Spurs to Arsenal.
    10:59 AM · Jul 10, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1546071652810854401
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Kyrgios already pulling out the under arm serve.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022
    Starmer is beatable, certainly. I don’t think there are many on here that wouldn’t acknowledge that he has always had certain flaws, and these do limit his effectiveness as an opposition leader.

    He has done well recently by trading on the decency angle. He will find it harder now Boris has gone, but there are some individuals he’ll find it much easier with than others.

    As of right now, if there was an election tomorrow, I would vote Labour. I voted Labour at the local elections, despite generally voting Tory. I would not have voted for the Tories with Boris in charge, in 2024. I have committed to giving all of the candidates a fair hearing and time to see if they can persuade me to come back to the fold. There are one or two who I think might make a decent fist of it - not sure about the others yet.
  • I wonder if he meant next next?

    Cllr James Bundy
    @jamesbundy
    The Conservative Party is in need of fresh ideas & personalities.
    @KemiBadenoch has the intellectual philosophy and the personal integrity we need as a party, and as a country. That’s why I’m backing her to become our next next PM. #Kemi4PM
    https://twitter.com/jamesbundy/status/1546069778896490496
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Maybe he's made his face a registered trademark or something. Seems a bit unwise for a politician, but who knows these days?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    The trick will be the degree to which the new Conservative leader can convince the electorate there has been a change of Government. Johnson famously spoke of both the May Government and indeed his own administration almost as though he was on the Opposition benches as though the biggest obstacle to "getting Brexit done" was the Conservative Government.

    I suspect this time it'll be a lot harder to convince people there's been a real change.

    I also say one or two people are now publicly challenging the ludicrous tax cut proposals being hawked round like some macabre Dutch auction by some of the leadership candidates. None of them seem able to answer the basic questions around how such tax cuts can be funded and how any of this will improve the public finances.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Pulpstar said:

    Just saw Penny's pitch. Bit kitsch tbh but I can clearly see her appeal.
    Sunak (Experience)
    Mordaunt (Red white and blue, forces, brexiteer)
    Zahawi (The toadies toady)
    Badenoch (War on woke)
    Tugendhat (General appeal, Forces)

    What's the usp of Javid ?

    The Saj lost the leadership with his resignation statement last Wednesday. If he'd got it right, it would have looked like he personally had taken down Boris. Instead, he seemed nervous and fumbled his main point.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-62061118
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ThevTory candidates are beatable. All to play for.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Probably wise to get their permission even if not a legal requirement. Otherwise you get the celebrities you're presenting as admirable issuing statements saying, 'I in no circumstances endorse this person's campaign or their politics', which rather defeats the point.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Kyrgios looking really good
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    More on-topic, as to whether Starmer is "beatable", it's very hard to know at this time.

    He has carefully and deliberately said almost nothing about future Labour policy and while some may liken it to the dance of the seven veils, there's an argument we may all end up over-dressed at the end of it.

    The central question is "why should I vote Labour?" and the answer has to be more than "because we're not a bunch of lying incompetents like the Tories" - it's not about policy detail (the Alliance suffered from this in the 1980s - there was a policy for everything but no one could still define for what the parties were standing).

    Indeed, as Blair showed, it doesn't have to be about policy at all - just the impression life will go on without much in the way of change but with better, kinder Government.

    Is there an appetite in this country for radical change as there was in 1979 and 1945? You'd be hard pushed to say yes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Jonathan said:

    ThevTory candidates are beatable. All to play for.

    All the Tory candidates are beatable and nearly all of them can also win an election in my opinion. Other factors apart from leadership are important at a general election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Policy announcement from Suella:

    https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1546096940450037760

    We must fully take back control of our borders. That means leaving the jurisdiction of the ECHR.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Chris said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Maybe he's made his face a registered trademark or something. Seems a bit unwise for a politician, but who knows these days?
    Nah. Confected argument. Probably helps them both. She now just needs Stonewall to call her a bigot. Often not hard to achieve.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Probably wise to get their permission even if not a legal requirement. Otherwise you get the celebrities you're presenting as admirable issuing statements saying, 'I in no circumstances endorse this person's campaign or their politics', which rather defeats the point.
    I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference. It's not like the athlete in question has declared a preference for Sunak.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Kyrgios breaks
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    IshmaelZ said:

    Kyrgios looking really good

    Let's not forget Djokovic lost the first set in both the quarter and semi final and indeed lost the first two to Sinner.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Kyrgios has just broken Djokovic's service!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,272
    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer is beatable but the Tories polling start point is dreadful.
    New leader has a big hill to climb and undo Boris' damage.

    Starmer himself is the point of light there. He effectively made Labour electable again after Corbyn botched it from 2017-19. And they have a more compliant media. However, the Tories don’t have an easy whipping boy to run against. Their candidates are a mix of inexperienced, weak or both.

    I also think Boris going is an opportunity for Starmer. He more or less had to go hard on “Johnson is shit” every moment of every broadcast round because there was no proper policy and obviously egregious and corrupt behaviour that had to be challenged. He can’t continue in that vein and he knows it, which is why he’s suddenly started talking about policy again. Whether he’ll succeed I don’t know. He’s not a stupid man and he has talent in his cabinet he can deploy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    stodge said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Kyrgios looking really good

    Let's not forget Djokovic lost the first set in both the quarter and semi final and indeed lost the first two to Sinner.
    Djokovic has been poor in the first set I think in every match during Wimbledon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited July 2022
    One of the best things about Kyrgios's style of play: he gets on with it very fast. Hardly any time between serves.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.

    Sigh. The sad truth of the classical texts (Latin and Greek) is that so few survive you can just read them all and make up your own mind.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Barnesian said:

    Kyrgios has just broken Djokovic's service!

    4-2
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,238
    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    stodge said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Kyrgios looking really good

    Let's not forget Djokovic lost the first set in both the quarter and semi final and indeed lost the first two to Sinner.
    Sure. But never mind the score just look at how he is playing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Tres said:

    So the ex Japanese President was killed because the guy who did it thought he was connected to the Moonies. Are there any other well known political figures with links to the Moonies?

    Not well known, but:

    Louis Farrakhan,
    Neil Bush (brother of Dubya),
    Peter Tapsell (NZ version),
    a Congressman called Danny K. Davis.

    So, yes but no but yes but no.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,153

    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
    One or two runs show the heat shunting that way and 46-47C in Serbia and Hungary.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,238

    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
    It gets roasted two days later. 47C predicted in Serbia


    Imagine if this became the norm…
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
    It gets roasted two days later. 47C predicted in Serbia


    Imagine if this became the norm…
    Scorchio....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
    It gets roasted two days later. 47C predicted in Serbia


    Imagine if this became the norm…
    Similar to British Columbia last summer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,915
    Kyrgios to serve for the set.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Leon said:

    Cheers. From the exquisite Venetian village of Rose, on the Lusica Peninsula, Kotor Bay, Montenegro



    Is this your first trip to Montenegro?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    biggles said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.

    Sigh. The sad truth of the classical texts (Latin and Greek) is that so few survive you can just read them all and make up your own mind.
    You bloody can't. Have you any idea how much Pliny and Galen and the sodding Deipnosophists there is just for starters?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    As I said before, I think it's very smart of Hunt.

    What Hunt needs - as do all - is nominations. He effectively had little appeal to pro-Brexit RW MPs, which limited his numbers. If McVey can bring these, it gives him a big boost.

    My view is the leader will be whoever can make it into the final round with Sunak. I can't see the latter being the winner with the Tory voters because of his actions, background and views (but not his race).
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Esther McVey backing Jeremy Hunt is the political equivalent of Sol Campbell going from Spurs to Arsenal.
    10:59 AM · Jul 10, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1546071652810854401

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    How many other candidates are thinking today "damn, I was going to use Jupiter/I Vow to Thee My Country" ?

    ( nb not quite the same tune.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Vow_to_Thee,_My_Country#Tune )

    Expect a rapid release of Jerusalem.

    Given the policies, Benny Hill would be more appropriate
    "There'll Always be an England" ?
    Some PB Tory moron told us recently that “England doesn’t exist” (sic). Modern Tories are a very weird lot. Proud Englishman Winston would’ve been horrified.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    This is confusing. I didn't think Priti Patel was standing.

    "Priti Patel (6)

    Ian Levy (10/7)
    Greg Smith (10/7)
    Kevin Foster (10/7)
    Anna Firth (10/7)
    Tom Pursglove (10/7)
    Scott Benton (10/7)"

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/10/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,915
    Djokovic is eminently beatable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited July 2022
    Looking at the list of "Tory Member Ishoos" in the Header. It looks a bit typical:

    1. Cut tax?
    - Is there potential for the Corporation Tax cut to repeat the "more revenue from a lower tax rate" trick. I suspect not at this scale.

    2. Be aggressive on Brexit?
    - Requires firmness not aggression and huge persistence. That's the only way that works with EuCo. The current Govt have failed to deliver clarity and consistency, and missed many opportunities.

    3. Increase defence spending?
    - No brainer, but Boris has already been fiddling the accounts by pretending that emergency spending for Ukraine should count in the Defence Budget. IS Ben Wallace also doing this?

    4. Say trans-women are not women?
    A bit of a surprise. This is one surely to set out a straightforward, rational position, and leave Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens etc to tear themselves to shreds like a Chinese Chicken coated in Brown Sauce. They will significantly tear themselves to shreds.

    5. Win the next election?
    Well, yes.

    Serious missing bits seem to me to be Housing Market Reform, which is really urgent especially in reaching some younger groups, Greenery, where there is a genuinely good story to tell, and the NHS, where I think waiting lists will spring a surprise by shrinking rapidly.

    Symbolically, I think there is also a need to uncripple HS2, and perhaps doing something about the £22bn potentially being pissed away on tarting up the Palace of Westminster. The latter is not wise at a time of money shortage.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    How many other candidates are thinking today "damn, I was going to use Jupiter/I Vow to Thee My Country" ?

    ( nb not quite the same tune.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Vow_to_Thee,_My_Country#Tune )

    Expect a rapid release of Jerusalem.

    Given the policies, Benny Hill would be more appropriate
    "There'll Always be an England" ?
    Some PB Tory moron told us recently that “England doesn’t exist” (sic). Modern Tories are a very weird lot. Proud Englishman Winston would’ve been horrified.
    How would you define England as a political entity?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Djokovic has never broken Kyrgios’s serve. Only two previous matches to analyse, but that’s some stat.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.

    Sigh. The sad truth of the classical texts (Latin and Greek) is that so few survive you can just read them all and make up your own mind.
    You bloody can't. Have you any idea how much Pliny and Galen and the sodding Deipnosophists there is just for starters?
    This is a sobering (and laughably incomplete) list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_literary_work

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Djokovic is eminently beatable.

    Kyrgios = The Tennisator

    Game of five halves, mind
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022

    Djokovic has never broken Kyrgios’s serve. Only two previous matches to analyse, but that’s some stat.

    Is surprising how few times they have played one another.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    How many other candidates are thinking today "damn, I was going to use Jupiter/I Vow to Thee My Country" ?

    ( nb not quite the same tune.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Vow_to_Thee,_My_Country#Tune )

    Expect a rapid release of Jerusalem.

    Given the policies, Benny Hill would be more appropriate
    "There'll Always be an England" ?
    Some PB Tory moron told us recently that “England doesn’t exist” (sic). Modern Tories are a very weird lot. Proud Englishman Winston would’ve been horrified.
    How would you define England as a political entity?
    Ask Her Majesty’s Government.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-3
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    How many other candidates are thinking today "damn, I was going to use Jupiter/I Vow to Thee My Country" ?

    ( nb not quite the same tune.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Vow_to_Thee,_My_Country#Tune )

    Expect a rapid release of Jerusalem.

    Given the policies, Benny Hill would be more appropriate
    "There'll Always be an England" ?
    Some PB Tory moron told us recently that “England doesn’t exist” (sic). Modern Tories are a very weird lot. Proud Englishman Winston would’ve been horrified.
    How would you define England as a political entity?
    A country that votes for Tory governments.
    And Johnson.
    And Brexit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    The BE odds have Mordaunt too high and Badenoch too low IMO.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Braverman will probably get knocked out fairly early and most her support will transfer to Badenoch.

    I'm banging the same drum again but this is why I think Hunt's announcement on McVey is smart. It gives another potential home for the Braverman crowd. Also, Badenoch was starting to get some momentum amongst RW MPs and announcement a deal with McVey neuters that.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "Spreadsheet Shapps: I wouldn't be here if I didn't have the numbers"

    https://order-order.com/2022/07/10/spreadsheet-shapps-i-wouldnt-be-here-if-i-didnt-have-the-numbers/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.

    Sigh. The sad truth of the classical texts (Latin and Greek) is that so few survive you can just read them all and make up your own mind.
    You bloody can't. Have you any idea how much Pliny and Galen and the sodding Deipnosophists there is just for starters?
    This is a sobering (and laughably incomplete) list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_literary_work

    Yes, but I am complaining about how much survives

    Fun fact, we almost certainly have all of Plato. There’s no works we know about but don't have and no quotations we can't place
This discussion has been closed.