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Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com
This could simply reflect that Johnson’s deficiencies are so glaring that they far overshadow Starmer’s strengths. But our tracker data shows his reputation is not strong: just 22% say he seems like a PM in waiting, 36% say he's "competent", 22% "strong"https://t.co/8F5q28XjKn pic.twitter.com/ljg68Fzaf9
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Tweed Mubarak!
Starmer is VERY beatable 👍
Interesting summary by TSE though
Chance of winning GE, the 'cleanskins' - Hunt, Tugendhat, Mordaunt
No chance of winning - Braverman, Patel, Zahawi, Truss, Badenoch
Honourable defeat/largest party - Sunak, Javid
I've never really been interested in Truss enough to figure out why she seems to provokesuch strong reaction.
He isn't very good.
Doesn't necessarily mean he will be though.
The economy is dire. And getting worse.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Braverman will probably get knocked out fairly early and most her support will transfer to Badenoch.
She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.
But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.
If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.
Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.
1. Not Corbyn
2. Perfect antidote to Boris
1. Nor is anyone else
2. Obsolete
Edit, see how badly that reads?
Who will the Defence Secretary Ben Wallace endorse for the leadership of the Conservative party? Having decided not to stand on grounds of family and wanting a normal life at some point post-politics, he is keeping his counsel and will, say allies, see what the assorted candidates have to say about the economy and defence before deciding what to do.
Wallace is a favourite of Tory activists and members, thanks to his conduct on the Ukraine crisis. What he concludes about any of the candidates, and their ability or otherwise to keep the country safe, could have a significant impact on the contest.
Here, Rishi Sunak has a potentially big Ben Wallace problem.
Relations between the pair are as icy as the Eastern Front in Russia during the winter of 1941-42. Why? With the Ukraine conflict getting underway earlier this year, the Defence Secretary wrote the then Chancellor a letter warning him inflation and stresses on the MoD budget would mean Britain will struggle to meet its commitments.
Astonishingly, Wallace did not receive a reply from the Chancellor to that letter.
The Treasury even tried, via Number 10, to get Wallace to withdraw the letter. The Defence Secretary refused.
https://reaction.life/ben-wallace-could-blow-up-rishi-sunak-on-defence/
Why some PBers are pompom waving for him I have no idea.
JRM's leadership shopping list: Principled, no baggage, and a winner.
https://order-order.com/2022/07/10/rees-moggs-leadership-shopping-list-principled-no-baggage-and-a-winner/
Is not truss
Is not anyone else from johnson cabinet either
went after Johnson over Air Doggie Woggie
not as dull as SKS
ETA Strapline: Make A Necessity Of Virtue
(bilingual pun)
But to give a slightly alternative view, Starmer may prosper with an opponent other than Boris. He struggled with Boris's unorthodox schtick - his refusal to answer any questions with a straight answer, his bizarre world-beating boosterism, and so on. Against a more rational and sober opponent, one more like him, Starmer may feel on safer ground and become more confident. It's possible.
Sunak (Experience)
Mordaunt (Red white and blue, forces, brexiteer)
Zahawi (The toadies toady)
Badenoch (War on woke)
Tugendhat (General appeal, Forces)
What's the usp of Javid ?
Sounded weird to me.
New leader has a big hill to climb and undo Boris' damage.
The Tories have done well on the diversity front.
There are 10 leadership candidates Two of Jewish heritage, one Kurdish, one Nigerian, one Pakistani, two Indian and one Irish. A wokeist delight !
It makes the Labour leadership contests look like a gathering of the friends of Eddie Booth in 'Love Thy Neighbour' from the 1970s.
(It is true the Tory leadership hopefuls are also diverse in being a mix of fantasists, tax avoiders, billionaires and psychopaths, but you can't have everything).
I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.
@DPJHodges
Esther McVey backing Jeremy Hunt is the political equivalent of Sol Campbell going from Spurs to Arsenal.
10:59 AM · Jul 10, 2022"
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1546071652810854401
He has done well recently by trading on the decency angle. He will find it harder now Boris has gone, but there are some individuals he’ll find it much easier with than others.
As of right now, if there was an election tomorrow, I would vote Labour. I voted Labour at the local elections, despite generally voting Tory. I would not have voted for the Tories with Boris in charge, in 2024. I have committed to giving all of the candidates a fair hearing and time to see if they can persuade me to come back to the fold. There are one or two who I think might make a decent fist of it - not sure about the others yet.
Cllr James Bundy
@jamesbundy
The Conservative Party is in need of fresh ideas & personalities.
@KemiBadenoch has the intellectual philosophy and the personal integrity we need as a party, and as a country. That’s why I’m backing her to become our next next PM. #Kemi4PM
https://twitter.com/jamesbundy/status/1546069778896490496
The trick will be the degree to which the new Conservative leader can convince the electorate there has been a change of Government. Johnson famously spoke of both the May Government and indeed his own administration almost as though he was on the Opposition benches as though the biggest obstacle to "getting Brexit done" was the Conservative Government.
I suspect this time it'll be a lot harder to convince people there's been a real change.
I also say one or two people are now publicly challenging the ludicrous tax cut proposals being hawked round like some macabre Dutch auction by some of the leadership candidates. None of them seem able to answer the basic questions around how such tax cuts can be funded and how any of this will improve the public finances.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-62061118
Latin goes woke...
At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.
He has carefully and deliberately said almost nothing about future Labour policy and while some may liken it to the dance of the seven veils, there's an argument we may all end up over-dressed at the end of it.
The central question is "why should I vote Labour?" and the answer has to be more than "because we're not a bunch of lying incompetents like the Tories" - it's not about policy detail (the Alliance suffered from this in the 1980s - there was a policy for everything but no one could still define for what the parties were standing).
Indeed, as Blair showed, it doesn't have to be about policy at all - just the impression life will go on without much in the way of change but with better, kinder Government.
Is there an appetite in this country for radical change as there was in 1979 and 1945? You'd be hard pushed to say yes.
https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1546096940450037760
We must fully take back control of our borders. That means leaving the jurisdiction of the ECHR.
I also think Boris going is an opportunity for Starmer. He more or less had to go hard on “Johnson is shit” every moment of every broadcast round because there was no proper policy and obviously egregious and corrupt behaviour that had to be challenged. He can’t continue in that vein and he knows it, which is why he’s suddenly started talking about policy again. Whether he’ll succeed I don’t know. He’s not a stupid man and he has talent in his cabinet he can deploy.
Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south
That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures
Louis Farrakhan,
Neil Bush (brother of Dubya),
Peter Tapsell (NZ version),
a Congressman called Danny K. Davis.
So, yes but no but yes but no.
Imagine if this became the norm…
As I said before, I think it's very smart of Hunt.
What Hunt needs - as do all - is nominations. He effectively had little appeal to pro-Brexit RW MPs, which limited his numbers. If McVey can bring these, it gives him a big boost.
My view is the leader will be whoever can make it into the final round with Sunak. I can't see the latter being the winner with the Tory voters because of his actions, background and views (but not his race).
"Priti Patel (6)
Ian Levy (10/7)
Greg Smith (10/7)
Kevin Foster (10/7)
Anna Firth (10/7)
Tom Pursglove (10/7)
Scott Benton (10/7)"
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/10/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
1. Cut tax?
- Is there potential for the Corporation Tax cut to repeat the "more revenue from a lower tax rate" trick. I suspect not at this scale.
2. Be aggressive on Brexit?
- Requires firmness not aggression and huge persistence. That's the only way that works with EuCo. The current Govt have failed to deliver clarity and consistency, and missed many opportunities.
3. Increase defence spending?
- No brainer, but Boris has already been fiddling the accounts by pretending that emergency spending for Ukraine should count in the Defence Budget. IS Ben Wallace also doing this?
4. Say trans-women are not women?
A bit of a surprise. This is one surely to set out a straightforward, rational position, and leave Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens etc to tear themselves to shreds like a Chinese Chicken coated in Brown Sauce. They will significantly tear themselves to shreds.
5. Win the next election?
Well, yes.
Serious missing bits seem to me to be Housing Market Reform, which is really urgent especially in reaching some younger groups, Greenery, where there is a genuinely good story to tell, and the NHS, where I think waiting lists will spring a surprise by shrinking rapidly.
Symbolically, I think there is also a need to uncripple HS2, and perhaps doing something about the £22bn potentially being pissed away on tarting up the Palace of Westminster. The latter is not wise at a time of money shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_literary_work
Game of five halves, mind
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-3
And Johnson.
And Brexit.
https://order-order.com/2022/07/10/spreadsheet-shapps-i-wouldnt-be-here-if-i-didnt-have-the-numbers/
Fun fact, we almost certainly have all of Plato. There’s no works we know about but don't have and no quotations we can't place
There will always be an England