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Starmer is eminently beatable – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Just came out of the circus; embarrassingly, the clown pulled me into the centre of the ring to do a gag.

    (again, this is not a metaphor)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Calling this for Kyrgios
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Just came out of the circus; embarrassingly, the clown pulled me into the centre of the ring to do a gag.

    (again, this is not a metaphor)

    Boris?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The more extreme weather forecasts for next week are still quite extreme

    Sunday-Tuesday still shows three days of 40C+ in the south

    That will be quite something (IF it actualises, a big if). France is almost certain to see record high temperatures

    But what about Eastern Europe....
    It gets roasted two days later. 47C predicted in Serbia


    Imagine if this became the norm…
    Scorchio....
    Easily fixed through a nuclear winter.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Starting with the theory that Starmer wasn't really chosen to be the next Labour PM, but to.prepare the way for them, it's probably true that he's done a bloody good job... so good that the best thing would arguably be for him to make way for the next Labour PM now.

    It would have been harsh if that had happened because of The Durham Incident, but is there a "nice" way for him to go? Sort of like Wallace and the NATO job? What do you give an ex-DPP?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I see Daniel Kawczynski - the loony’s loony - is taking a “punt on Hunt”.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Calling this for Kyrgios

    Djokovic breaks Kyrgios for the first time ever
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Starting with the theory that Starmer wasn't really chosen to be the next Labour PM, but to.prepare the way for them, it's probably true that he's done a bloody good job... so good that the best thing would arguably be for him to make way for the next Labour PM now.

    It would have been harsh if that had happened because of The Durham Incident, but is there a "nice" way for him to go? Sort of like Wallace and the NATO job? What do you give an ex-DPP?

    It would still be a hell of a thing to take power from here, especially with their own majority. If I wanted to be the next Labour PM following Starmer, I reckon I’d still on balance want to leave him in place to get 280-300 seats next time and then take over idc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Amazed to see Zahawi up to 10 declarations.
    He may play a part despite everything.
    They are going to have to up the threshold from 8 I reckon. Else we'll have 10 or 11 candidates depending on Patel.
    Even Shapps has 6 already.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Starting with the theory that Starmer wasn't really chosen to be the next Labour PM, but to.prepare the way for them, it's probably true that he's done a bloody good job... so good that the best thing would arguably be for him to make way for the next Labour PM now.

    It would have been harsh if that had happened because of The Durham Incident, but is there a "nice" way for him to go? Sort of like Wallace and the NATO job? What do you give an ex-DPP?

    Chairman International criminal court
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962

    Djokovic has never broken Kyrgios’s serve. Only two previous matches to analyse, but that’s some stat.

    One record broken!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    Just came out of the circus; embarrassingly, the clown pulled me into the centre of the ring to do a gag.

    (again, this is not a metaphor)

    A gag in front of others and involving a clown?

    You are Carrie Johnson and I claim my £5.
    It involved an 8-year old boy, me, the clown and a seesaw.

    Thankfully, my worst fears weren't realised.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Comments on Tory Home.

    "Bootsie 4h
    Hunt’s announcement that he’s teaming up with Esther McVey should be the final nail in his campaign, effectively turning off support from both wings of the party. Now if another 5 or 6 candidates would do something equally as stupid it might make the whole process move a bit faster.

    Barbara Brown
    Bootsie 1h
    I could hardly believe my ears when I heard McVey say she now supported Hunt."

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/10/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    This contest is fascinating.

    Contenders seem to form four groups, although even within groups there are sometimes bitter enmities.

    1. Britannia Unchained - Rishi, Truss, Javid

    2. Hang and Flog - Braverman, Patel, Badenoch

    3. Continuity Boris - Zahawi, Shapps

    4. One Nationers - Hunt, Mordaunt, Tugendhat

  • Anne Marie Morris has declared for Tugendhat - another that seems unexpected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. From the exquisite Venetian village of Rose, on the Lusica Peninsula, Kotor Bay, Montenegro



    Is this your first trip to Montenegro?
    Yes, but not my last, God willing

    As might be obvious, I really like it. Feels like Greece maybe 30-40 years ago. There is the odd pocket of intense tourism, and then swathes of mild tourism, but then huge chunks with no tourists at all. And it is beautiful, with cheery friendly people - and excellent Wi-Fi and 4G, so in that respect it isn’t like Greece in the 80s at all
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. From the exquisite Venetian village of Rose, on the Lusica Peninsula, Kotor Bay, Montenegro



    Is this your first trip to Montenegro?
    Yes, but not my last, God willing

    As might be obvious, I really like it. Feels like Greece maybe 30-40 years ago. There is the odd pocket of intense tourism, and then swathes of mild tourism, but then huge chunks with no tourists at all. And it is beautiful, with cheery friendly people - and excellent Wi-Fi and 4G, so in that respect it isn’t like Greece in the 80s at all
    You’ve certainly sold it to me.
    Though perhaps not at this time of year.
    Would be nice for some late sun in September.

    I presume you can easily get boats across to Italy too, and perhaps up/down the Adriatic?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    This contest is fascinating.

    Contenders seem to form four groups, although even within groups there are sometimes bitter enmities.

    1. Britannia Unchained - Rishi, Truss, Javid

    2. Hang and Flog - Braverman, Patel, Badenoch

    3. Continuity Boris - Zahawi, Shapps

    4. One Nationers - Hunt, Mordaunt, Tugendhat

    I think 2 and 3 are right but I reckon 1 and 4 are hard to call. Hunt is a bit more “Singapore on Thames” and so “Britannia Unchained” I think, whereas I think Rishi is full on establishment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    dixiedean said:

    Amazed to see Zahawi up to 10 declarations.
    He may play a part despite everything.
    They are going to have to up the threshold from 8 I reckon. Else we'll have 10 or 11 candidates depending on Patel.
    Even Shapps has 6 already.

    Shapps played a key role in Boris's victory so it is probably safe to assume he knows how to keep track of who has promised what.

    10 or 11 candidates seems like a lot but it would seem like the 1922 was putting its thumb on the scale were it to change the nomination threshold. And there is no need to because it can simply increase the thresholds of the voting rounds, which would have much the same effect without launching all manner of conspiracy theories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    England looking shit again in the T20.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Despite WFH years before it became fashionable, I'd pop into the office for free air conditioning whenever the mercury climbed too high.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Beeb saying 31 in London on Saturday, 36 on Sunday.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    They are having trouble recruiting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited July 2022
    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Maybe he's made his face a registered trademark or something. Seems a bit unwise for a politician, but who knows these days?
    Nah. Confected argument. Probably helps them both. She now just needs Stonewall to call her a bigot. Often not hard to achieve.
    Silly Peacocking from Johnnie.

    I don't think that he holds a veto on stock footage of an Olympic final - which is what I think it is.

    The PM4PM branding is quite neat.

    I think the I Vow to Thee My Country music is laid on a bit thick.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    As a teenager, the best job in Sainsbury's on a hot day was out the back in the veg walk-in, innocently halving cucumbers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Sorry to sound like a stalker but from memory you live in a modern block with full-walled (or close) windows.

    Doesn’t it get BLOODY hot, and why isn’t here aircon?

    I see from US travel twitter that one of the main bitches about Europe (not England per se) is the lack of ubiquitous aircon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    Amazed to see Zahawi up to 10 declarations.
    He may play a part despite everything.
    They are going to have to up the threshold from 8 I reckon. Else we'll have 10 or 11 candidates depending on Patel.
    Even Shapps has 6 already.

    Shapps played a key role in Boris's victory so it is probably safe to assume he knows how to keep track of who has promised what.

    10 or 11 candidates seems like a lot but it would seem like the 1922 was putting its thumb on the scale were it to change the nomination threshold. And there is no need to because it can simply increase the thresholds of the voting rounds, which would have much the same effect without launching all manner of conspiracy theories.
    Yes perhaps.
    Looking at Con Home dashboard it's really close from third to eleventh.
  • MattW said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/10/boris-johnson-conservative-leadership-race-uk-politics-live

    I see that Mordaunt's video is going to need editing. Johnnie Peacock asks her to remove footage featuring him.

    Hmm. I did wonder if she'd got permission from all those people featured in it (not least Boris Johnson), and had vaguely concluded that she must have. Bit of a rookie error if not.
    Do you need every persons permission if you show a clip of a public event. I presumed it was just the rights holder of the video in question?
    Maybe he's made his face a registered trademark or something. Seems a bit unwise for a politician, but who knows these days?
    Nah. Confected argument. Probably helps them both. She now just needs Stonewall to call her a bigot. Often not hard to achieve.
    Silly Peacocking from Johnnie.

    I don't think that he holds a veto on footage of an Olympic final.
    The extra attention he's given her probably helps Penny
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    Cost of running aircon with current utility costs must be eye-watering.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    It seems TeamBoZo were Ready4Rishi after all...

    Fairly sensational attack from someone within the Conservative Party on the party’s own record in government. https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1546130680018518017
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Meanwhile...

    Great find by our colleagues at @ITNProductions in our @GettyImages archive:
    The Chancellor and PM contender @nadhimzahawi being interviewed by @nightingaleitv on ITV London Tonight with his old boss Jeffrey Archer about his Teletubbies business (you heard all those things right)
    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1546043499631591426/video/1
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    biggles said:

    This contest is fascinating.

    Contenders seem to form four groups, although even within groups there are sometimes bitter enmities.

    1. Britannia Unchained - Rishi, Truss, Javid

    2. Hang and Flog - Braverman, Patel, Badenoch

    3. Continuity Boris - Zahawi, Shapps

    4. One Nationers - Hunt, Mordaunt, Tugendhat

    I think 2 and 3 are right but I reckon 1 and 4 are hard to call. Hunt is a bit more “Singapore on Thames” and so “Britannia Unchained” I think, whereas I think Rishi is full on establishment.
    Rishi is a Britannia Unchainer that never managed to balance Johnsonian spending and Treasury balance-the-book caution. I don’t think he’s changed his mind, he just didn’t have the balls to do anything about it.

    Hunt is continuity Cameron.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. From the exquisite Venetian village of Rose, on the Lusica Peninsula, Kotor Bay, Montenegro



    Is this your first trip to Montenegro?
    Yes, but not my last, God willing

    As might be obvious, I really like it. Feels like Greece maybe 30-40 years ago. There is the odd pocket of intense tourism, and then swathes of mild tourism, but then huge chunks with no tourists at all. And it is beautiful, with cheery friendly people - and excellent Wi-Fi and 4G, so in that respect it isn’t like Greece in the 80s at all
    You’ve certainly sold it to me.
    Though perhaps not at this time of year.
    Would be nice for some late sun in September.

    I presume you can easily get boats across to Italy too, and perhaps up/down the Adriatic?
    Definitely avoid August if you can, but that’s true of almost anywhere in Europe

    September would be perfect, likewise May-June

    However be warned that the mountainous interior, which is as sensational as the coast (and completely devoid of tourists) gets a ton of rain - but when it is sunny it is sublime

    You can certainly get boats to Dubrovnik. And ferries ply the local coast

    There isn’t that much to see culturally. It’s not Tuscany. But really it is the beautiful landscapes and seascapes. For its size it might be the most gorgeous country on earth - as in loveliness per sq km. Very restful on the eye

    I’m determined to come back in Sept and see Durmitor National Park…

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    edited July 2022
    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Anne Marie Morris has declared for Tugendhat - another that seems unexpected.

    Has Nadine declared for Boris yet?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Sorry to sound like a stalker but from memory you live in a modern block with full-walled (or close) windows.

    Doesn’t it get BLOODY hot, and why isn’t here aircon?

    I see from US travel twitter that one of the main bitches about Europe (not England per se) is the lack of ubiquitous aircon.
    No I live in a Grade II listed late Georgian terrace (converted) which is very handsome to look at but it impossible to keep cool. Maybe not allowed aircon because of the listing
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Cost of running aircon with current utility costs must be eye-watering.

    I’m delighted but also in a way horrified at how cheap my electricity bills are in New York.

    Aircon has been on pretty much every day since June 1 and I’m told to expect this will remain the case until Aug 31.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IshmaelZ said:

    Kyrgios looking really good

    See what you did there ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Sorry to sound like a stalker but from memory you live in a modern block with full-walled (or close) windows.

    Doesn’t it get BLOODY hot, and why isn’t here aircon?

    I see from US travel twitter that one of the main bitches about Europe (not England per se) is the lack of ubiquitous aircon.
    Mad dogs and Englishmen.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe was - in the words of Steve Bannon, no less - the first of the muscular nationalist type politicos.

    No wonder Modi declared a day of mourning.

    The weird thing is the eulogies from Hilary Clinton, who risibly called him a champion for women.

    Late-capitalist Democrat politics is insane.
  • Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Wasn’t it to make him homeless?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    biggles said:

    This contest is fascinating.

    Contenders seem to form four groups, although even within groups there are sometimes bitter enmities.

    1. Britannia Unchained - Rishi, Truss, Javid

    2. Hang and Flog - Braverman, Patel, Badenoch

    3. Continuity Boris - Zahawi, Shapps

    4. One Nationers - Hunt, Mordaunt, Tugendhat

    I think 2 and 3 are right but I reckon 1 and 4 are hard to call. Hunt is a bit more “Singapore on Thames” and so “Britannia Unchained” I think, whereas I think Rishi is full on establishment.
    Rishi is a Britannia Unchainer that never managed to balance Johnsonian spending and Treasury balance-the-book caution. I don’t think he’s changed his mind, he just didn’t have the balls to do anything about it.

    Hunt is continuity Cameron.
    I wonder whether he and Tugenhat are both going to both be knocked out by perceived connection to other countries.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Because he was/is delusional and in need of psychiatric intervention
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    Sorry to sound like a stalker but from memory you live in a modern block with full-walled (or close) windows.

    Doesn’t it get BLOODY hot, and why isn’t here aircon?

    I see from US travel twitter that one of the main bitches about Europe (not England per se) is the lack of ubiquitous aircon.
    No I live in a Grade II listed late Georgian terrace (converted) which is very handsome to look at but it impossible to keep cool. Maybe not allowed aircon because of the listing
    Oh now I get the piano nobile reference.
    I thought you were just talking yourself up.

    In my experience those Georgian terraces are nice and cool in the basement flat, but less so upstairs.
  • Scott_xP said:

    It seems TeamBoZo were Ready4Rishi after all...

    Fairly sensational attack from someone within the Conservative Party on the party’s own record in government. https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1546130680018518017

    I think this shows that Penny was wise to put Boris in her video. The best strategy looks to be to stay out of the bunfights and try to be transfer friendly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    I guess he was just a fan of the Hong Kong movie 'Men Behind the Sun'?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2022
    New Portland Communications poll for the Sunday Times finds Starmer now with a clear lead over all Tory leadership candidates in the redwall.

    In terms of public net approval in redwall seats, Starmer is on +8%, Truss -8%, Javid is on -9%, Hunt on -17%, Sunak on -6%, Mordaunt-6%, Tugendhat on -6% and Zahawi on -9%.

    However in the bluewall seats the Tory candidates fare better. Mordaunt is on +1%, Tugendhat on 0% and Truss on -4%, all better or equal to Sir Keir on -4%. Javid is on -5%, Sunak on -7% and Zahawi on -8%, all better than Sir Ed Davey on -11%. Only Hunt does worse in blue wall seats than Sir Keir and Sir Ed on -12%

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1546055540618407936?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    edited July 2022
    Sunak screams Brown to me i.e. plotted for the job more than others and so won't have anything radical he wants to do when he gets it. He'll bring risk-aversion and hence indecision, weakness and division. The time until an autumn 2024 GE will be like 2007-2010 all over again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    I think this shows that Penny was wise to put Boris in her video. The best strategy looks to be to stay out of the bunfights and try to be transfer friendly

    I think her video is going to be pulled, but perhaps it has already served its purpose
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    I'm calling this for Djokovic
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898

    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Wasn’t it to make him homeless?
    A pyrrhic victory if it also has made Boris homeless.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Can’t think of an exact European equivalent; Merkel doing a smirking thumbs up above an 88 on a Luftwaffe Tornado?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Kyrgios’ tantrums have started.
  • Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Wasn’t it to make him homeless?
    A pyrrhic victory if it also has made Boris homeless.
    I think the writing was long on the wall for Boris by then. And he must have known it, even though he pretended that he didn’t

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/10/uk-school-latin-course-overhauled-to-reflect-diversity-of-roman-world

    Latin goes woke...
    At least Johnson will have something to write about back at the Telegraph.

    Sigh. The sad truth of the classical texts (Latin and Greek) is that so few survive you can just read them all and make up your own mind.
    You bloody can't. Have you any idea how much Pliny and Galen and the sodding Deipnosophists there is just for starters?
    This is a sobering (and laughably incomplete) list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_literary_work

    Yes, but I am complaining about how much survives

    Fun fact, we almost certainly have all of Plato. .........
    I thought her tweets were deleted?

    Ego meum petasum et tunica
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Home thoughts from the near abroad

    I’ve recently noticed EU politicians - eg Ursula Von D L - using the phrase “European Dream”, in direct contrast to “American Dream”

    Sitting here in Rose, Montenegro, i am certainly looking at the European Dream. A handsome historic Venetian village by the Adriatic. Lots of people enjoying their sunny Sunday, eating, drinking, swimming, sunbathing. Big family groups,. Boating and paddleboarding. Almost no obesity, because the food is good and wholesome (if basic) and everyone walks the walkable old towns and villages

    Pretty much zero crime. No guns. Decent local wine

    I honestly doubt if there are many humans enjoying life more than Montenegrins right here right now, in their unpretentious but beautiful country. This despite them having a GDP per capita of just $25k

    The EU is on to something with this “European Dream” thing. Tho, ironically, Montenegro is not in the EU
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Penny Mordaunt's leadership campaign off to a shaky start after she is forced to re-issue her launch video, cutting out the footage which featured convicted murderer Oscar Pistorius https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1546125105960558593

    Others have also complained
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1546079326923362305

    Rishi Sunak has evidently agreed to make Mark Spencer the next DEFRA Sec of State.
    Mark was the biggest blocker of measures to protect nature, biodiversity, animal welfare.
    He will be our very own little Bolsonaro. Grim news for nature. But great news for political opponents
    11:30 AM · Jul 10, 2022·Twitter Web App

    Take this to be some sort of Carrie related snakedom. Hard to keep up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe’s record of WWII apologetics was not a happy one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    FFS Malan is hogging the strike...England aren't going to get anywhere near enough runs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    My south facing piano nobile Camden flat, with its floor to ceiling windows, can easily be 10C hotter than the temp outside, in hot sunny weather

    So it could be 52C. With no aircon

    Think I’ll be spending the weekend in Sainsburys

    You can have your normal weekend there without having to carry the bottles?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Jamei said:

    Tory member here again. A shame Wallace isn't standing. I want someone honest who can actually make decisions and who will boldly tackle domestic productivity and economic growth whilst being strong on foreign affairs, and push these things to win the next GE. The less candidates talk about Brexit or trans stuff the more I'll like them. Tugendhat top of my list right now, Badenoch I'd definitely like to hear more from. Sunak talks cautious finances but splurged billions on fraudsters and was a feeble chancellor, but I'd vote for him over the others: Javid nice but weak, Braverman an ERG-loon trans-war obsessive, Hunt a China dove and Mordaunt just plain dim. Shapps I love because I'm convinced he's an under-cover comedian.

    I agree with you on Tugendhat but he's far too sensible for the current Tory membership. Beyond him I don't think the opposition have much to worry about. Bit harsh on Mordaunt but I admit I don't know too much about her, she could surprise or just flop catastrophically.
  • FFS Malan is hogging the strike...England aren't going to get anywhere near enough runs.

    Good work. 13 off his last 4 balls
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    This is how little crime there is in Montenegro

    Big bustling (excellent) seafood restaurant in a pretty seaside village. Hundreds of people nearby

    The group next to me - late 20s, jolly - have all, in sequence, stood up and walked away. Temporarily leaving behind 2 phones, a purse, several bags, sunglasses, car keys

    Incredible. Was Britain once like this?


  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    My housemate who rarely engages politically caught a bit of Starmer being interviewed on the news and she immediately picked up on his lack of charisma in the way he speaks, his tendency to repeat himself and the lack of substance in what he actually said

    She is someone who regularly votes Green or LD and so not completely against left of centre candidates.

    But she was less than impressed by the way he comes across on screen.

    If you can't persuade people to listen to you because of the way you present yourself through the media, they are never going to bother to hear what you have to say.

    Setting aside the lack of policy clarity, it is this presentational issue that will continue to hamper Starmer.


    We all have anecdotes with invariably support our own agendas and prejudices. They are really a complete waste of time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Ferrets in a sack.

    https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1546079326923362305
    Rishi Sunak has evidently agreed to make Mark Spencer the next DEFRA Sec of State.
    Mark was the biggest blocker of measures to protect nature, biodiversity, animal welfare.
    He will be our very own little Bolsonaro. Grim news for nature. But great news for political opponents
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    kle4 said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    I guess he was just a fan of the Hong Kong movie 'Men Behind the Sun'?
    Agree. That looks a false claim to link 731 "Refers to Unit 731".

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,042
    Commentator has just said the temperature on court was 35 celsius (95 F) earlier and could go to 40 (104 F)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    I think this shows that Penny was wise to put Boris in her video. The best strategy looks to be to stay out of the bunfights and try to be transfer friendly

    I think her video is going to be pulled, but perhaps it has already served its purpose
    Yet when you factor the considerations from the lead in with the Tories needing to choose someone who backed Leave and the hugely greater ability of a woman to draw a line under Johnson's amoral public schoolboy persona, everything points to Mordaunt as the obvious choice.

    But I have been stung before by betting on what the Tories should do, rather than what they will do, and have to read a batch of HY posts before bedtime to keep my feet off the ground.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898

    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Wasn’t it to make him homeless?
    A pyrrhic victory if it also has made Boris homeless.
    I think the writing was long on the wall for Boris by then. And he must have known it, even though he pretended that he didn’t

    Maybe not on the Wednesday. My take was that Boris was concentrating on PMQs, then The Saj's resignation statement, then the Liaison Committee, and may have been too busy and/or tired to appreciate the size of the hole he was in, as he vowed to fight on, but after a night's sleep and reflection, it became obvious by Thursday morning that he would have to step down. But I cannot rationalise the Wednesday night sacking of Gove.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    HYUFD said:

    New Portland Communications poll for the Sunday Times finds Starmer now with a clear lead over all Tory leadership candidates in the redwall.

    In terms of public net approval in redwall seats, Starmer is on +8%, Truss -8%, Javid is on -9%, Hunt on -17%, Sunak on -6%, Mordaunt-6%, Tugendhat on -6% and Zahawi on -9%.

    However in the bluewall seats the Tory candidates fare better. Mordaunt is on +1%, Tugendhat on 0% and Truss on -4%, all better or equal to Sir Keir on -4%. Javid is on -5%, Sunak on -7% and Zahawi on -8%, all better than Sir Ed Davey on -11%. Only Hunt does worse in blue wall seats than Sir Keir and Sir Ed on -12%

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1546055540618407936?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I thought Hunt was supposed to be the best candidate wrt the Blue Wall.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Leon said:

    Home thoughts from the near abroad

    I’ve recently noticed EU politicians - eg Ursula Von D L - using the phrase “European Dream”, in direct contrast to “American Dream”

    Sitting here in Rose, Montenegro, i am certainly looking at the European Dream. A handsome historic Venetian village by the Adriatic. Lots of people enjoying their sunny Sunday, eating, drinking, swimming, sunbathing. Big family groups,. Boating and paddleboarding. Almost no obesity, because the food is good and wholesome (if basic) and everyone walks the walkable old towns and villages

    Pretty much zero crime. No guns. Decent local wine

    I honestly doubt if there are many humans enjoying life more than Montenegrins right here right now, in their unpretentious but beautiful country. This despite them having a GDP per capita of just $25k

    The EU is on to something with this “European Dream” thing. Tho, ironically, Montenegro is not in the EU

    It could be within the next few years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_the_European_Union
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe’s record of WWII apologetics was not a happy one.
    Mods here get twitchy over condoning political assassination. So I would like to condemn wholeheartedly home made gun man. Really naughty.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Just came out of the circus; embarrassingly, the clown pulled me into the centre of the ring to do a gag.

    (again, this is not a metaphor)

    KevinB?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe’s record of WWII apologetics was not a happy one.
    Can't believe India just declared a day of national mourning for him, yesterday.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583

    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Wasn’t it to make him homeless?
    A pyrrhic victory if it also has made Boris homeless.
    I think the writing was long on the wall for Boris by then. And he must have known it, even though he pretended that he didn’t

    Maybe not on the Wednesday. My take was that Boris was concentrating on PMQs, then The Saj's resignation statement, then the Liaison Committee, and may have been too busy and/or tired to appreciate the size of the hole he was in, as he vowed to fight on, but after a night's sleep and reflection, it became obvious by Thursday morning that he would have to step down. But I cannot rationalise the Wednesday night sacking of Gove.
    I believe Gove gave Johnson an ultimatum of Wednesday 21:00 to resign. Johnson sacked Gove at 20:58.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    Home thoughts from the near abroad

    I’ve recently noticed EU politicians - eg Ursula Von D L - using the phrase “European Dream”, in direct contrast to “American Dream”

    Sitting here in Rose, Montenegro, i am certainly looking at the European Dream. A handsome historic Venetian village by the Adriatic. Lots of people enjoying their sunny Sunday, eating, drinking, swimming, sunbathing. Big family groups,. Boating and paddleboarding. Almost no obesity, because the food is good and wholesome (if basic) and everyone walks the walkable old towns and villages

    Pretty much zero crime. No guns. Decent local wine

    I honestly doubt if there are many humans enjoying life more than Montenegrins right here right now, in their unpretentious but beautiful country. This despite them having a GDP per capita of just $25k

    The EU is on to something with this “European Dream” thing. Tho, ironically, Montenegro is not in the EU

    It could be within the next few years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_the_European_Union
    I think it might be stalled because corruption

    If not it is the perfect time to buy Montenegrin property
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    FFS Livingstone hogging the strike....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    It's too hot. And some misfortune in the race, but an interesting end.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe’s record of WWII apologetics was not a happy one.
    Can't believe India just declared a day of national mourning for him, yesterday.
    That's what happens when you have an arsehole as PM.


    (So when's our day of mourning? )
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Leon said:

    This is how little crime there is in Montenegro

    Big bustling (excellent) seafood restaurant in a pretty seaside village. Hundreds of people nearby

    The group next to me - late 20s, jolly - have all, in sequence, stood up and walked away. Temporarily leaving behind 2 phones, a purse, several bags, sunglasses, car keys

    Incredible. Was Britain once like this?


    I regularly do that in places that aren't London. Maybe I'm a trusting fool.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    Betfair punters think it is a three-horse race, with Hunt and Tugendhat going for a walk in the next pm market.

    2.92 Rishi Sunak
    4.2 Penny Mordaunt
    6.8 Liz Truss
    16 Jeremy Hunt
    21 Tom Tugendhat
    22 Sajid Javid
    34 Dominic Raab
    34 Nadhim Zahawi
    36 Kemi Badenoch
    38 Suella Braverman
    80 Priti Patel
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    I guess he was just a fan of the Hong Kong movie 'Men Behind the Sun'?
    Agree. That looks a false claim to link 731 "Refers to Unit 731".

    Not seen it but it seems to be a horrible exploitation movie celebrating unit 731 so what's the difference?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Portland Communications poll for the Sunday Times finds Starmer now with a clear lead over all Tory leadership candidates in the redwall.

    In terms of public net approval in redwall seats, Starmer is on +8%, Truss -8%, Javid is on -9%, Hunt on -17%, Sunak on -6%, Mordaunt-6%, Tugendhat on -6% and Zahawi on -9%.

    However in the bluewall seats the Tory candidates fare better. Mordaunt is on +1%, Tugendhat on 0% and Truss on -4%, all better or equal to Sir Keir on -4%. Javid is on -5%, Sunak on -7% and Zahawi on -8%, all better than Sir Ed Davey on -11%. Only Hunt does worse in blue wall seats than Sir Keir and Sir Ed on -12%

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1546055540618407936?s=20&t=6s-mAMl327v6ChyfYsFZWA

    I thought Hunt was supposed to be the best candidate wrt the Blue Wall.
    Hunt really did blot his copybook with just about everyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited July 2022

    Why did Boris sack Michael Gove? At a time when Boris was struggling (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to fill empty government roles, why shoot himself in the foot by creating yet another vacancy?

    Most obviously, revenge, but I think it was also Johnson trying to look strong and recover some control of a situation where in reality he had none.

    I also think he broods over a view of alternative history where he brushed off Gove's criticisms in 2016, beat May for leader on a Brexit ticket, defeated Corbyn in 2017 and would now be heading toward a further term.

    At the time, it did seem that Johnson folded very quickly when Gove laid into him - AIR speculation at the time ranged from more dirt on him that he feared would come out to a lack of courage knowing that losing a leadership election once is usually terminal (as Hunt will shortly demonstrate)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Priti Patel supporters according to Guido:

    Tom Pursglove
    Scott Benton
    Anna Firth
    Greg Smith
    Kevin Foster
    Ian Levy
    Simon Baynes
    Ian Liddell-Grainger
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Laurence Robertson
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    I can't see any reasons to back Hunt.

    Personally, I like him but no-one else seems to agree - he's unpopular with the Tory base and, it seems, target voters in both the north and south.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    All the criticisms of Rishi are entirely accurate, even if they are made by sore losers like Rees-Mogg and Goldsmith.

    The man’s a menace.

    I just watched the Tugendhat interview.
    A bit clunky, but he’s totally sound.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Some Abe blackening as a distraction. An ‘unfortunate’ coincidence at the very least.



    https://twitter.com/davide_melia/status/1545430542241304577?s=21&t=9vNMjuk1t_3uyJlRF4XaUQ

    If that is right it is unbelievably vile
    Abe’s record of WWII apologetics was not a happy one.
    Can't believe India just declared a day of national mourning for him, yesterday.
    Well at least Modi is more aligned to Japan than Communist China
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Commentator has just said the temperature on court was 35 celsius (95 F) earlier and could go to 40 (104 F)

    It's 29 in the shade at Wimbledon atm.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635
    Andy_JS said:

    Priti Patel supporters according to Guido:

    Tom Pursglove
    Scott Benton
    Anna Firth
    Greg Smith
    Kevin Foster
    Ian Levy
    Simon Baynes
    Ian Liddell-Grainger
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Laurence Robertson

    There are a lot around the 10 mark at the moment.

    image
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    This is how little crime there is in Montenegro

    Big bustling (excellent) seafood restaurant in a pretty seaside village. Hundreds of people nearby

    The group next to me - late 20s, jolly - have all, in sequence, stood up and walked away. Temporarily leaving behind 2 phones, a purse, several bags, sunglasses, car keys

    Incredible. Was Britain once like this?


    I regularly do that in places that aren't London. Maybe I'm a trusting fool.
    I left my phone on the tube and my wallet on a train, and they both turned up.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    Here's a chunk of what Kyrgios said to the umpire about the rowdy crowd member.

    "There's no other bigger occasion and they did it again and it nearly cost me the point.

    "She's drunk out of her mind so kick her out.

    "I know exactly who it is - she's the one who looks like she's had about 700 drinks."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    This is how little crime there is in Montenegro

    Big bustling (excellent) seafood restaurant in a pretty seaside village. Hundreds of people nearby

    The group next to me - late 20s, jolly - have all, in sequence, stood up and walked away. Temporarily leaving behind 2 phones, a purse, several bags, sunglasses, car keys

    Incredible. Was Britain once like this?


    I regularly do that in places that aren't London. Maybe I'm a trusting fool.
    In the UK?!

    I wouldn’t do that anywhere in the UK. Maybe I am a jaded Londoner. They also left purses behind - with cash and cards

    I wouldn’t do that anywhere in western Europe except perhaps REALLY rural spots, and Switzerland

    The only other countries I’ve seen behaviour like this in super busy places is Singapore and Japan
This discussion has been closed.