politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large
Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market.
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No 1.18
Madness.
Current best prices - North Lanarkshire result
Yes 5/6 (Lad, PP)
No 5/6 (Lad,PP)
Freedom!
Best Prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (SkyBet)
No 6/4 (PP)
75.0 Percent or fewer 46
75.01 - 80.0 Percent 6.4
80.01 - 85.0 Percent 3.35
85.01 - 90.0 Percent 2.62
90.01 - 95.0 Percent 6
95.01 Percent or Greater 25
If there is a large turnout then that will skew the final result and (given the closeness) will tip the result either way. I understand from people commenting herein that turnout is large. What I want to know is what is their age profile of these voters. If there are more older voters at a time-of-day when older voters are fewer then that would indicate "No". If there are more younger voters at a time-of-day when younger voters are fewer then that would indicate "Yes".
So. What is the age profile of the turnout by time-of-day and how does it compare to previous elections?
BREAKING: The big vote in Scotland has passed!
The Royal and Ancient Golf Club is finally allowing women.
The consensus was that a lot of "sane" "moderate" or "reasonable" people came out, particularly the comfortably off, who find normal NI politics a turn off normally.
Not sure if there is a read-across to Scotland, but I just put it out there.
Frankly I suspect that a lot of these analyses that try to compare Canada, Wales, NI, etc to the Scottish referendum are very weak, because each country has a distinct political dynamic.
That's why I didn't buy Stephen Fisher's blog on What Scotland Thinks that said that the NO vote was likely to be higher than the polls say.
Perhaps a lesson for other political parties in this......
I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.
What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!
On the lender of last resort, when did Britain ever do this internationally? And during the Great Depression the British did exactly the same as the Americans: they failed to expand the money supply. In fact, the attempt to get back on the gold standard was an active act of restriction, sot hey were worse.
I accept the charge of American insularity post-1918, but I don't see where this fits with your broader argument. You're saying the UK getting involved in continental affairs in 1914 to stop an aggressive Germany was a mistake, as it lessened the UK's ability in the 1930s to to get involved in continental affairs to stop an aggressive Germany? American failure to act in the 1920s and 1930s was better than a much more powerful and imperialist Germany running the show.
I'm English. We'll still be around tomorrow morning.
We've moaned on this site the fact that people are disillusioned with politics, with our political establishment etc. So if people have bothered to take an interest, good for them - and like democrats we accept the result, whatever it is.
I would have wanted Scots born residents of the UK to have a vote but given that it's 16 and 17 year olds who will have to live in the UK or an independent Scotland that's not an obviously daft decision, unless you assume that they're all half-wits or irredeemably frivolous.
Can't wait for that one!
I don't think I could bear to stay up to see the results come in, the hope, the despair, the not knowing anything until we get Glasgow's result. I suspect I might be up by the time the guillotine finally comes down on the Union....
Even on Black Monday last week, I still felt the Union would prevail. I don't now - the "f... 'em all" brigade will win it for Salmond.
Could be worse, I could be David Cameron...
https://www.twitter.com/andyjsajs
Scots have always in every referendum voted for more powers - and past polls on referendums in scotland have underestimated YES quite badly, such as the Tax powers YES in 1998
Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.
If turnout is higher than predicted, I have to say that favours Yes. The demographics of those who don't normally vote will be on their side.
My karma is unshaken.I have said it started 57-43,there was an awful amount of noise and alcohol consumed,and the match finished just as it started.The loyal British Scots are like other quiet folk,over in Quebec,not to keen to let anyone else know what their business is,very private and conservative,small c.They will do their talking in the ballot box.
Relax and listen to the birds.
There could be more people who come out because they do want change.
I have gone for a narrow YES because I think they will go with their hearts, but I have little confidence in it.
The UK will still be there as well and if it does not include Scotland then we will still get on with life.
And if it does not include Scotland then it will be the fault of Labour and an almost inevitable consequence of its devolution policy.
75.0 Percent or fewer 44
75.01 - 80.0 Percent 6.8
80.01 - 85.0 Percent 3.2
85.01 - 90.0 Percent 2.6
90.01 - 95.0 Percent 5.6
95.01 Percent or Greater 24
I actually hope it's really close as I've got some booze ready to hear the results coming in and it would be a shame for it all to be done and dusted after the first couple of results.
Because they have confidence and belief in the Union and they don't wan't to see it broken up and Scotland facing severe jeopardy as a result.
Simples really!
Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see
I'm actively shaking with fear and dread that the Scots will vote for the same old same old status quo.
I might wake up in the morning to find this sorry state of affairs still exists.
Right, now for the main event... bring on Jeremy Vine and his silly CGI, yee-har...
I cannot decide which of the two will prevail but neither bodes well for Scotland - economic idiocy on one hand and, on the other, an air of fear stopping people from expressing themselves freely.
The one thing I am certain of is that this referendum has done Scotland no favours.
On golf: aren't there some women only clubs? Nobody seems to kick up a fuss about them.
Mr. HYUFD, regional assemblies are the work of Satan.
You've just neatly summed up the problem with the Bitter Together last-minute "Vow" (sic).
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5923913/Ed-Balls-and-Yvette-Cooper-dressed-up-as-Von-Trapps.html
Is a situation like this really a good way to extend your life experience? The YES is irreversible.
Matt Chorley @MattChorley 6h
Had expected more of the world's media to be here. So far an Asian news agency, an Italian academic and @NigelpMorris
Would that Italian academic be Dr Andrea of Parma?
Or the Women's Institute. Blatantly sexist. Imagine if there was a Men's Institute.
I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?
There is a lot of wishful thinking going on
Since the infamous YouGov poll of two weekends ago and the reaction, I've been increasingly of the view that a NO vote will lead to more serious problems for England and the Conservatives than a YES.
The wet dream for some of Labour expunged and a Conservative-UKIP coalition evaporates with a NO vote and the promises made to Scotland in the campaign will have to be delivered.
That in turn raises the sceptre of how England should be governed and the not unreasonable notion that the likes of Surrey, London, Cornwall and Brighton could and should have much greater freedom on the raising and spending of funds and in areas such as housing and planning clear of the centralisation of Whitehall. After all, if it's good enough for Lossiemouth, it should be good enough for Luton or Leicester.
This isn't about English Parliaments or Regional Assemblies which are unnecessary and unneeded. The structures for devolving power already exist.
The £ still trading a cent up on the day so the money men think it will be a NO.
Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.
New best prices:
Glasgow result
YES 4/6 (Lad)
NO 6/4 (PP)
Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.
They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.
In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
..to women allowed in at St Andrews - about time welcome to 2015!!!!