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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
    Listening to Sky this morning the general concensus is Dowden's resignation is very serious for Johnson, not just because his resignation letter refers to partygate and fails to support Johnson, but it is now clear that cabinet ministers have a decision to make as to whether they are going to support Johnson against the likeable and honest Dowden

    Dowden is a breath of fresh air and hopefully his action is the key to other abandoning Johnson and removing him from office

    Apparently Dowden's resignation was typed but with todays date penned on it, raising the question as to when Dowden had decided to pen the letter
    Morning Big G.

    And yet only 18 days since Oliver Dowden publicly supported Boris Johnson in the Confidence vote.

    This is now a mess for the party. I'm not of your parish so I don't know how this one gets sorted?

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1540202399217885184

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,142
    OnboardG1 said:

    I got woken up by the local church bells so I figured I’d read the by election stories. The main thing that pops out is the level of tactical voting. There’s a very obvious voter-preference for “anyone but the Tories”, and that’s what should scare the Blue team right now.

    Wow, they're even ringing the church bells to celebrate?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,560
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,048
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal
    chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet
    moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
    I’m sure this is closer to the truth than “he’s a sociopath”

    I’ve actually seen him looking shameful. He was virtually in tears during Peak Partygate

    But he got over it quickly. That’s his shtick. He has various coping mechanisms - one of them might be booze - which allow him to throw off the Lilliputian cables of remorse, and on he goes

    I think you are confusing shame and self-pity. I am not a fit person to dole out medical diagnoses but there is clearly something not quite right in Johnson's wiring. For most of his life that has worked to his advantage but his premiership was always going to end like this.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,365

    OnboardG1 said:

    I got woken up by the local church bells so I figured I’d read the by election stories. The main thing that pops out is the level of tactical voting. There’s a very obvious voter-preference for “anyone but the Tories”, and that’s what should scare the Blue team right now.

    Wow, they're even ringing the church bells to celebrate?
    Of course :D:D

    All we are lacking is hosannas and angels ...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    edited June 24

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    Agreed. Labour should be all over this like a rash. SKS's cowardice is truly shocking.

    A much closer relationship with the EU is critical for this country's future.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,005
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal
    chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet
    moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
    I’m sure this is closer to the truth than “he’s a sociopath”

    I’ve actually seen him looking shameful. He was virtually in tears during Peak Partygate

    But he got over it quickly. That’s his shtick. He has various coping mechanisms - one of them might be booze - which allow him to throw off the Lilliputian cables of remorse, and on he goes

    I remember thinking Boris sounded genuinely contrite when he had to apologize to Liverpool over the infamous Speccie article. But it recently transpired that he nicknamed the exercise 'Operation Grovel Scouse' (or some such), which hardly suggests he was that torn up over it. All an act to begin with or his regret had simply outlived its usefulness?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited June 24
    I've noticed a few Party-types (by which I don't mean coke snorters) think Labour's result is less than good. Some of you have gone further.

    Let me make this clear. For Labour to achieve a 12.7% swing in the red wall is a brilliant result. The red wall was the toughest nut to crack. These are the types who voted for Boris and who were processing him to power in 2019. To turn this around in a little over two years shows the depths of disaster the tories are facing at the next General Election.

    This is brilliant news for Labour and both results are a DISASTER for the Conservatives. Twin sucker punches: blue wall, red wall going.

    Do not bet much money against a Labour outright next election.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,560

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,113

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.

    I’m sticking with my 15-year-old old V8, and spending money on petrol instead!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,403
    edited June 24
    Curtice: as bad as Major, more than midterm blues and the Tories should be seriously afraid of tactical voting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
    Listening to Sky this morning the general concensus is Dowden's resignation is very serious for Johnson, not just because his resignation letter refers to partygate and fails to support Johnson, but it is now clear that cabinet ministers have a decision to make as to whether they are going to support Johnson against the likeable and honest Dowden

    Dowden is a breath of fresh air and hopefully his action is the key to other abandoning Johnson and removing him from office

    Apparently Dowden's resignation was typed but with todays date penned on it, raising the question as to when Dowden had decided to pen the letter
    Morning Big G.

    And yet only 18 days since Oliver Dowden publicly supported Boris Johnson in the Confidence vote.

    This is now a mess for the party. I'm not of your parish so I don't know how this one gets sorted?

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1540202399217885184

    Good morning

    First of all congratulations on your predictions

    It is clear Dowden has done the honourable thing by resigning, and at last we have a cabinet minister who may well have taken the action to see Johnson gone
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    Polling guru John Curtice says if you take the last 4 by-elections then the Tories are down 20 points.

    Says this is “not run of the mill”

    “You have to go back to John Major’s government to find a government struggling so much with by-elections”

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1540223429240127489
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,033
    edited June 24
    Hahaha, this is fabulously deluded.

    Lord David Brent, sorry, Frost on Twitter: “It's important to cut through the noise and spin on the Wakefield and Tiverton results.

    Both are terrible for @Conservatives.

    Neither is particularly good for @labour or @LibDems.

    Why? (1/4)”

    http://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1540218121943916550

    Frosty as ever putting the “fat” in “fatuous”.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,165
    ydoethur said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?

    He's still trying to work out the best route to get them to Tiverton. Roadworks are complicating things.
    Roadworks??? Don't you mean potholes?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden quit just before being due to lead morning broadcast round 😬

    Meanwhile Tory candidate Helen Hurford hid in dance studio at sports centre count in Tiverton & Honiton last night - also refusing to face press.

    Priti Patel now stepping in, & will be on @TimesRadio at 08.45

    TimesRadio? That’s like hiding in a fridge.
    Correct..... who is on at 8.10am on Radio 4? That's what I want to know.
    Still nobody on BBC
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,365

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,560

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden quit just before being due to lead morning broadcast round 😬

    Meanwhile Tory candidate Helen Hurford hid in dance studio at sports centre count in Tiverton & Honiton last night - also refusing to face press.

    Priti Patel now stepping in, & will be on @TimesRadio at 08.45

    TimesRadio? That’s like hiding in a fridge.
    Correct..... who is on at 8.10am on Radio 4? That's what I want to know.
    The Cowardly & Unionist Party lack a spokesperson
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    Whether you agree with Frost's analysis of the by-election results, the pay off is very ominous for Boris Johnson.

    Reads like a call for the cabinet to take out the PM.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1540218128923246592
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094
    What is keeping Boris in office? He's a gambler and he's had some luck. He picked the right woman to head the vaccine taskforce, and he went all in on Ukraine at an early stage.

    Starmer would never have gambled like that. Labour's task was multiplied by Corbyn in his 'Putin's little helper' mode even though that is now fading. The LDs/greens are suffering from 'events, dear boy.' Angela Merkel, with her helpful removal of nuclear power and dependence on Russian gas. Not a good look. Well, greenies, do we rid ourselves of gas and take to chance while China carries on opening coal mines and India grabs the cheap energy, no matter how polluting?

    Boris' clear cock-ups seem to fade faster because he plunges on to another gamble as soon as he can. The passengers are deciding the ride isn't worth the aggro any more, and he probably doesn't know what he's doing.

    He's finished, but the Tories lack a heir-apparent. Who engineered that?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639
    Glorious morning, is it not? A few thoughts:

    1. T&H. An avalanche of blue forever voters switching to the LibDems. And listen to the issues raised on the doors. No new high school - the Tories scrapped Building Schools for the Future and replaced it with nothing. Dentists (suspect GPs a similar issue) - can't get one. Its not just party gate. Its basic issues where the Tories couldn't give a rat fuck. This "fuck the voters" approach will absolutely do them.

    2. Wakefield. So many of the "I don't vote, but I'll vote for Brexit / Boris" voters have returned to not voting. A great Joe pub interview with a load of angry women, none of them voted. Tories will lose stacks of he red wall if that happens even if the Labour vote largely stands still.

    3. Dowden is Geoffrey Howe. Already Tory MPs saying he isn't responsible. Probably won't become the story that Sky News want it to be. But as the boss is away for another week if any of them are every to grow morality now is the time...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    I believe T&H voted significantly for Leave so I would class it a blue Brexit seat.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,560

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal
    chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet
    moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
    I’m sure this is closer to the truth than “he’s a sociopath”

    I’ve actually seen him looking shameful. He was virtually in tears during Peak Partygate

    But he got over it quickly. That’s his shtick. He has various coping mechanisms - one of them might be booze - which allow him to throw off the Lilliputian cables of remorse, and on he goes

    I think you are confusing shame and self-pity. I am not a fit person to dole out medical diagnoses but there is clearly something not quite right in Johnson's wiring. For most of his life that has worked to his advantage but his premiership was always going to end like this.
    It is the predictability of Johnson’s and Brexit’s downfall that must really be hurting the Tories. We did try to warn them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    Agreed. Labour should be all over this like a rash. SKS's cowardice is truly shocking.

    A much closer relationship with the EU is critical for this country's future.
    Not according to Starmer and Lammy's confirmation yesterday that Labour will not join the single market
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,151
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    That’s true, but it isn’t factored into PCP rates properly (and the prices have gone up since then). I just had a look at the E-Niro finance configuration and it’s expecting 50 percent depreciation over three years and wants me to spend £500 a month for it. I just can’t afford that. The Mazda is going to cost me £260 a month on the same deposit, and I don’t spend £240 a month on fuel, even in the current climate.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited June 24
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice: as bad as Major, more than midterm blues and the Tories should be seriously afraid of tactical voting.

    Nails it.

    As Big G says, someone now needs to step up. After all, Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair so they still have a chance.

    It took 34 days from the Eastbourne by-election, which was a 20% not 30% swing, to remove Maggie. And Boris Johnson: you are no Margaret Thatcher.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,388
    OnboardG1 said:

    Foxy said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
    The Renault Zoe meets that 200 mile spec, but is a bit basic inside. My 14 year old Fiat is on its last legs so I am in the market for a new motor, alongside our Kia eniro, which I am massively impressed by.

    Driving an EV is simply much nicer than ICE cars, the smoothness and power are quite a revelation with EVs, and charging not quite the issue people imagine. Initially EV drivers have range anxiety, but it disappears in weeks, being not much of an issue in real life.

    I am not quite ready to go fully EV yet, partly because of long delivery times at present, so am going hybrid this time, but it is likely to be my last ever petrol vehicle.
    Funnily enough I’m replacing a 14 year old FIAT, although it’s still a low-mileage and sprightly thing which I can probably get a decent price for. I’m not convinced the Zoe can actually get 200 motorway miles IRL otherwise I might have gone for it (charge rate is also a bit low). Annoyingly, I need a car for all seasons and to get one of those you’re looking at 40k, or a lead time into next year if you want an E-Niro or Kona (and I don’t really like SUVs).

    That said I expect in a couple of years time we’re going to see more legacy manufacturers pull their finger out and work on affordable mass market EVs more comprehensively. That Toyota is on a par with the RAV4 and aside from the wheel thing I don’t know why you’d buy a Hybrid RAV4 over the bZ. I think Mazda might come up with something surprisingly good, and it’s never wise to write off Ford.
    The torrent of new EV models coming from all manufacturers and resolution of supply chain issues will bring down EV prices markedly, and they are already markedly cheaper on running costs.

    My only concern with buying a hybrid is that selling any ICE car in 5 years time will be difficult. I do tend to keep cars forever though, so resale doesn't bother me so much as longevity, and hybrids do phenomenonally well on that.

    I rather fancy the new VW id Buzz California when it comes in a few years. There goes my pension lump sum, but looks a beauty.

    https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/there-are-five-maybe-six-versions-vw-id-buzz-way
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    Who's gonna send your petition about the rail strikes to the Labour Party now, lad?
    https://twitter.com/LouHaigh/status/1540197077493452801
    https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1540191893258207232
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    Actually Starmer has confirmed it as policy, but it was Lammy who yesterday reiterated the policy
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,549
    edited June 24

    As an anti-Tory I would love Boris Johnson to stay on. But the country has to come first. That’s why he must go. I don’t think he will, though. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

    There are good, competent Tory MPs within the ranks of the party though many left when the party switched from being pro to anti EU. T But the huge problem is that the membership cannot be relied on to choose one of them. They are going to choose the most Brexit-pure candidate on offer and when that is the main criteria for success then Johnson is about as good as it gets. Who else Patel? Raab? Braverman? Raab? Rees-Mogg? Dorries?

    If I were a Tory MP my fear would be that a leadership election could end up with an even worse choice.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,151

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Have you looked into the Kia EV6? Same platform but a more sporty and “estatey” body than the Ioniq5? I prefer the Kia since it looks like it wants to be a sports estate rather than a fat hatchback (though I like the design language of the Hyundai).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    Sorry I meant Blue Brexity seat. A typo (thanks Murali). In other words, if they're losing both red wall and blue brexit then they are in massive trouble.

    My big prediction is that Surrey blue wall seats will tumble. I'm seeing the signs of it everywhere.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,113
    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    He’s correctly decided that going into the next election fighting over the re-introduction of FoM, is a good way to fail to win the Red Wall back. Does he want millions of low-paid people currently changing jobs for large pay rises, to go back to being told that the minimum wage is a hard maximum wage?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,365

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    You always support the Tories on here even if you do take the odd dig at Boris. You sure as heck are not a Labour or Lib Dem man or even a floating voter.

    As for Starmer's pronouncements, he can say what he likes but it is the manifesto commitments at the next election that matter. I will make my decisions then.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting

    Thread on what happened in Tiverton- Lib Dems had 400-odd activists here yesterday, leafleted almost every home & spoke to 20,000 people. They said 3 issues dominated: 1- Tiverton High school 2- Dentistry- fury at not being able to get NHS dentists and 3- partygate. 1/

    On the high school- @JackAbbey97 and I went there. The building is in terrible condition- & new build promised since 2009. A lead campaigner for it said there was impression that safe Tory seats in SW were being neglected by Govt in favour of funding for the north & midlands 2/
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1540205243874549760


    Sounds like they were mainly in mid Devon which seems initially bizarre. Nobody in the East Devon portion (more than half) would say anything about Tiverton HS as it is absolutely miles away - half an hour from Honiton and more from the rest of us.

    But then I looked at the map and found Richard Foord's house is slightly over the border in the new Tiverton and Minehead seat (at least that's the current plan) and maybe it starts to make sense. Exmoor is about to get a two year leaflet blitz?

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Campaigning to rejoin the single market would be suicide for Labour. SKS has this right.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    edited June 24
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Why not just get a Volvo PHEV?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    Johnson frantically on Sky Scanner looking for direct flights from Rwanda to Kiev
    https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1540218521346576387
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,844
    edited June 24
    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 417
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    I think a few EU initiatives, if proposed as common sense stuff that will improve trade etc, can be sold to the electorate but probably while in Government rather than in an election. I think a Government (not this one) could sell it, but it could be warped in a campaign.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    Actually Starmer has confirmed it as policy, but it was Lammy who yesterday reiterated the policy
    Well, they are being cowardly. Crass decision.

    We need to unwind the lunacy of Brexit and the sooner we do that, the better...
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,272
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    When you quote other people's posts and cut chunks out, please take the time to write 'snip'

    That, or bold the section of the quote you want to reply to, then start with 'BIB'

    The way you currently just butcher the quotes, while leaving the previous quotes untouched, takes the quotes entirely out of context. It's quite irritating.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,033
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    Sorry I meant Blue Brexity seat. A typo (thanks Murali). In other words, if they're losing both red wall and blue brexit then they are in massive trouble.

    My big prediction is that Surrey blue wall seats will tumble. I'm seeing the signs of it everywhere.
    Yes, I agree. I think the seat projections are underestimating the likely Conservative collapse in the Actual Blue Wall.

    T&H is not Actual Blue Wall. Surrey is.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yep and I personally agree with you but winning elections requires political nous and expediency.

    Labour want the red wall back. To campaign to rejoin the single market would be suicidal. Labour need the red wall to come back on board, or at least as much of it as possible.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,844

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    Sorry I meant Blue Brexity seat. A typo (thanks Murali). In other words, if they're losing both red wall and blue brexit then they are in massive trouble.

    My big prediction is that Surrey blue wall seats will tumble. I'm seeing the signs of it everywhere.
    Yes, I agree. I think the seat projections are underestimating the likely Conservative collapse in the Actual Blue Wall.

    T&H is not Actual Blue Wall. Surrey is.
    Yes, Hunt and Raab would lose their seats on the swing last night certainly
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,450
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice: as bad as Major, more than midterm blues and the Tories should be seriously afraid of tactical voting.

    It was interesting that he was saying that for the Tories on these figures it was 97 all over again in terms of potential losses however in the flip side he was pointing out that Labour’s figures weren’t great and not even as good as by-elections under Corbyn.

    So it’s not as if the Tories are self destructing and Labour look to sweep the board so if it stays like that then (I’m guessing) either a small Labour majority or a coalition with Labour as largest party.

    Much for Labour to do if they want to benefit from Tory shitshow - they can’t just presume that if Tories get smashed they will have a whopping majority.

    All still to play for - Tories need fresh and decent leadership, Labour need dynamism and an actual plan and appeal to the public, LDs need to hope neither of the other two do what they need to do.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,645
    edited June 24
    Good morning.
    "Wedge week" was a resounding success I see.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited June 24
    Blanche ... I do it because then it shows the part of a quote to which you are replying, rather verbatim paragraphs.

    Standard practice in journalism, the media, and academia. But, sure, I'll bung in the ellipses in future.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,550
    Unpopular said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    I think a few EU initiatives, if proposed as common sense stuff that will improve trade etc, can be sold to the electorate but probably while in Government rather than in an election. I think a Government (not this one) could sell it, but it could be warped in a campaign.
    In other words, lie?

    Fair enough. It's what politicians do

    This is what I predicted, Labour will waffle about tweaking the Brexit arrangements before the election, then, if they take power (looking increasingly likely) they will have a huge internal row about going much further: rejoining the SM. It might be their only chance to do this if they go on to lose in 2028, say (and they could easily be a one term govt if the economy does not assist them)

    My sense is that Starmer, a massive Remainer and a premium brand Second Voter, will yield, and Labour will try to rejoin the SM. They might be given cover by ad hoc Coalition Partners the LDs and SNP, who could make this their key demand in return for support in a hung parliament

    *throws runes away, exhausted*

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    The first casualty of Oliver Dowden’s confected ‘culture war’ is Oliver Dowden.
    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1540226533796765696
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,365
    OllyT said:

    As an anti-Tory I would love Boris Johnson to stay on. But the country has to come first. That’s why he must go. I don’t think he will, though. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

    There are good, competent Tory MPs within the ranks of the party though many left when the party switched from being pro to anti EU. T But the huge problem is that the membership cannot be relied on to choose one of them. They are going to choose the most Brexit-pure candidate on offer and when that is the main criteria for success then Johnson is about as good as it gets. Who else Patel? Raab? Braverman? Raab? Rees-Mogg? Dorries?

    If I were a Tory MP my fear would be that a leadership election could end up with an even worse choice.
    I am hoping for JRM as PM. It would complete the farce of the last years, but my fear is that we get Priti Patel who strikes me as ultra-hardline, vicious and nasty.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Half of the T&H seat has been blue since before Queen Victoria came to the throne. The other was blue since 1885 bar a few months in-between the 1910 elections. For you to even try and draw some comfort from a massive loss after the third biggest swing in history is stretching it. Even for you.

    Listen to the voters. They think you and yours are contemptible. The yellow pox is breaking out all across Tory shires in southern England. When you have caught the clap you can't ignore it - you have to admit it and seek treatment.

    Will you HYUFD go to the clap clinic or are you prepared to die of political syphilis?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,033
    edited June 24
    Heathener said:

    Blanche ... I do it because then it shows the part of a quote to which you are replying, rather verbatim paragraphs.

    Standard practice in journalism, the media, and academia. But, sure, I'll bung in the ellipses in future.

    It’s also been standard practice online since I first used Usenet in 1995ish: you trim the quote to the minimum necessary. Perhaps less so in this age of Eternal September.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,207
    dixiedean said:

    Good morning.
    "Wedge week" was a resounding success I see.

    It was a success - it reminded more centre ground Tory voters that Bozo's current Tory party isn't for them.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,549

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,272
    edited June 24

    Heathener said:

    Blanche ... I do it because then it shows the part of a quote to which you are replying, rather verbatim paragraphs.

    Standard practice in journalism, the media, and academia. But, sure, I'll bung in the ellipses in future.

    It’s also been standard practice online since I first used Usenet in 1995ish: you trim the quote to the minimum necessary.
    Then why not remove the previous quotes?

    edit And why not just politely put in a 'snip' to show that you're trimming the quote?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    Sorry I meant Blue Brexity seat. A typo (thanks Murali). In other words, if they're losing both red wall and blue brexit then they are in massive trouble.

    My big prediction is that Surrey blue wall seats will tumble. I'm seeing the signs of it everywhere.
    Yes, I agree. I think the seat projections are underestimating the likely Conservative collapse in the Actual Blue Wall.

    T&H is not Actual Blue Wall. Surrey is.
    Yes, Hunt and Raab would lose their seats on the swing last night certainly
    And wonderfully JRM
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    Actually Starmer has confirmed it as policy, but it was Lammy who yesterday reiterated the policy
    Well, they are being cowardly. Crass decision.

    We need to unwind the lunacy of Brexit and the sooner we do that, the better...
    To do *anything* Starmer needs to become Prime Minister. He won't become so if he says now what you want him to say. The man has form here. He knew what the Labour Party needed to do - purge the trots - but if he said so they wouldn't elect him leader.

    So he told them a few lies to make them find him acceptable. And then ruthlessly got on with what he needed to do.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    My final point for now as I'm off out, but 12.7% swing in the Red Wall means that Labour will be doing even better relatively elsewhere. The Red Wall is the tough nut to crack and I'm massively heartened by this.

    For sure it was on the back of an imprisoned MP and it's a midterm by-election but this is hugely encouraging for Labour. And with an 11% national lead in yesterday's SavantaComRes, that's cause for considerable optimism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,987
    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,403
    edited June 24

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    Sandpit said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    He’s correctly decided that going into the next election fighting over the re-introduction of FoM, is a good way to fail to win the Red Wall back. Does he want millions of low-paid people currently changing jobs for large pay rises, to go back to being told that the minimum wage is a hard maximum wage?
    Baby steps first, suck it and see and so on. We need to repair the damage with the EU as soon as possible. The Tory way can only lead to disaster.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639
    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    I think a few EU initiatives, if proposed as common sense stuff that will improve trade etc, can be sold to the electorate but probably while in Government rather than in an election. I think a Government (not this one) could sell it, but it could be warped in a campaign.
    In other words, lie?

    Fair enough. It's what politicians do

    This is what I predicted, Labour will waffle about tweaking the Brexit arrangements before the election, then, if they take power (looking increasingly likely) they will have a huge internal row about going much further: rejoining the SM. It might be their only chance to do this if they go on to lose in 2028, say (and they could easily be a one term govt if the economy does not assist them)

    My sense is that Starmer, a massive Remainer and a premium brand Second Voter, will yield, and Labour will try to rejoin the SM. They might be given cover by ad hoc Coalition Partners the LDs and SNP, who could make this their key demand in return for support in a hung parliament

    *throws runes away, exhausted*

    We won't rejoin the EEA because politically it becomes difficult for both sides. But we can strike a bilateral arrangement with the EEA as the Swiss have done.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,067
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice: as bad as Major, more than midterm blues and the Tories should be seriously afraid of tactical voting.

    That, I think, is why the Tories will ditch Boris.
    They probably realise they're likely to lose the next election whatever they do.
    But currently they're so toxic that tactical voting might become an automatic reflex, as in 1997.
    That threatens electoral catastrophe.

    Dumping Johnson gives them a slim chance of holding power - but a much better chance of moderating the loss, and hanging on to the only seat which counts to an MP: their own.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,639
    OllyT said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
    He was late coming on because he is the most senior Tory willing to do the media round this morning.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,207
    edited June 24

    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.

    Autumn 2023...

    If you want to use a new leader bounce to win an election - binning Bozo in Summer 2023 would be the appropriate timing - question is how much more damage can Bozo, inflation and what is likely to be a recession (reduced consumer spending is going to do that by itself) do between then and now.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Agreed. Dowden is clearly a moron (like 90% of the Cabinet).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,088
    Well, that's marvellous. Opening a Word doc (for work) and apparently there's an error that needs to be repaired. Clicking to repair it does (as message indicates) require closing the document. Anybody knows if this will eventually mend itself?

    In the short term, I can work around it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,343

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal
    chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet
    moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
    I’m sure this is closer to the truth than “he’s a sociopath”

    I’ve actually seen him looking shameful. He was virtually in tears during Peak Partygate

    But he got over it quickly. That’s his shtick. He has various coping mechanisms - one of them might be booze - which allow him to throw off the Lilliputian cables of remorse, and on he goes

    I think you are confusing shame and self-pity. I am not a fit person to dole out medical diagnoses but there is clearly something not quite right in Johnson's wiring. For most of his life that has worked to his advantage but his premiership was always going to end like this.
    It is the predictability of Johnson’s and Brexit’s downfall that must really be hurting the Tories. We did try to warn them.
    You're trying to bring Brexit into this, precisely because Johnson's exit carries away with it a lot of the sting of Brexit, and you're clever enough to know it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,005
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Yes, Boris needs a massive blow up with the EU. Trade war, import bans, diplomatic expulsions - nothing should be off the table. And should Sir Keir object to the maleficence of any of this then the sobriquet 'Mr Cancel Brexit' must be (metaphorically) gouged across his forehead for all to see. There is no other option.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Of course there is

    He has accepted responsibility for the crushing defeats and done the right thing

    Furthermore, he has undermined Johnson from within the cabinet and questions will be asked of cabinet ministers who do not follow him
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,403

    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Of course there is

    He has accepted responsibility for the crushing defeats and done the right thing

    Furthermore, he has undermined Johnson from within the cabinet and questions will be asked of cabinet ministers who do not follow him
    The opportunity was 18 days ago. He missed it. Like I say, he’s a Wally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    Massive rowing back from Boris Johnson on the rift with Prince Charles in Rwanda.
    Today he says: “I wouldn’t comment on anything that I say to the Queen or the Queen says to me, nor would I say what the heir to the throne might say to me or what I may say to him.“
    #CHOGM2022
    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1540230062892613634/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    'Growth is virtually anaemic, inflation is 9.1% and you've lost four by-elections - How have done incredibly well?'

    @NickFerrariLBC confronts Home Secretary Priti Patel after she claims the government has done 'incredibly well' since the pandemic
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1540229884643086336/video/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,844

    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.

    As 2017 proved voters do not like snap general elections. Even if Johnson went a new leader who called a snap general election would almost certainly lose their majority even if they did a bit better than Johnson might now.

    Major in 1992 won after waiting the full 5 years. However his opponent was Kinnock who scared Middle England more than Starmer does
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,549
    “Historic mandate”…. Next up for Johnson, an ONLY GOD CAN JUDGE ME tattoo https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1540230565961637889/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,997
    Looks like Dowden has decided to stay under the duvet...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,788
    Heathener said:

    My final point for now as I'm off out, but 12.7% swing in the Red Wall means that Labour will be doing even better relatively elsewhere. The Red Wall is the tough nut to crack and I'm massively heartened by this.

    For sure it was on the back of an imprisoned MP and it's a midterm by-election but this is hugely encouraging for Labour. And with an 11% national lead in yesterday's SavantaComRes, that's cause for considerable optimism.

    I would take task with that as it is patently obvious it is the lib dems who are doing very well and tactical voting is live and very well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,844
    edited June 24

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Or put another way, if Labour are getting a 12.7% swing in the red wall and the LibDems are getting a 30% swing in the bluest of blue non-Brexit seats then the Conservatives are heading for a crushing 1997 defeat.

    Sorry I meant Blue Brexity seat. A typo (thanks Murali). In other words, if they're losing both red wall and blue brexit then they are in massive trouble.

    My big prediction is that Surrey blue wall seats will tumble. I'm seeing the signs of it everywhere.
    Yes, I agree. I think the seat projections are underestimating the likely Conservative collapse in the Actual Blue Wall.

    T&H is not Actual Blue Wall. Surrey is.
    Yes, Hunt and Raab would lose their seats on the swing last night certainly
    And wonderfully JRM
    Not on national polling though unlike Hunt and Raab on yesterday's Comres for example.

    On a national Tiverton and Honiton swing even Epping Forest would go LD and on a Wakefield swing Labour would have a majority

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,388
    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,207

    Heathener said:

    Blanche ... I do it because then it shows the part of a quote to which you are replying, rather verbatim paragraphs.

    Standard practice in journalism, the media, and academia. But, sure, I'll bung in the ellipses in future.

    It’s also been standard practice online since I first used Usenet in 1995ish: you trim the quote to the minimum necessary. Perhaps less so in this age of Eternal September.
    +1 - if I wish to comment on a single point in a long essay or reply - I trim it down to the bit I want to make a point about to avoid any chance of confusion..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,645
    Raab steps up to the plate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,088
    edited June 24
    Hmm, possibly mended now, the file's stayed open. We shall see...

    Edited extra bit: and it's closed itself. Well, I'll get some work done then try and fix it instead of spending the morning on the latter.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,207
    edited June 24
    HYUFD said:

    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.

    As 2017 proved voters do not like snap general elections. Even if Johnson went a new leader who called a snap general election would almost certainly lose their majority even if they did a bit better than Johnson might now.

    Major in 1992 won after waiting the full 5 years. However his opponent was Kinnock who scared Middle England more than Starmer does
    Does 2017 prove that - I thought it proved that people don't like whole new taxes (the death tax) introduced without at least some warning.

    Also Autumn 2023 isn't a snap election without reason. It would be coming up to 4 years after the previous election which is a very common time for elections to be called see Feb 1974, 1983, 1997 and 2001.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,861
    Scott_xP said:

    'Growth is virtually anaemic, inflation is 9.1% and you've lost four by-elections - How have done incredibly well?'

    @NickFerrariLBC confronts Home Secretary Priti Patel after she claims the government has done 'incredibly well' since the pandemic
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1540229884643086336/video/1

    Not news, but she's as thick as mince.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,888
    edited June 24

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.

    I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.

    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal and maybe the Tories could keep calm and carry on. Now the rebels have taken their shot and he's still there.

    The objective signs are simply not looking like 1992-7. If you had nothing to go on except the data, you'd say it's a regular mildly unpopular mid-term government that might recover or might lose. If you think it's 1992-7, you need to explain why the polling isn't looking like 1992-7, and neither are the by-election swings.
    What you miss is that they look like the Nasty Party again. It seems to have come from nowhere but it's one of the reasons voters are prepared to come together to vote against them. Rwanda is more significant than it appears. We are metaphorically entering a dark and unfamiliar place. As a country we're not very nice anymore. When the church and royalty call you out you should at least take notice. Looking both seedy and nasty is not a good look
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,844

    OllyT said:

    As an anti-Tory I would love Boris Johnson to stay on. But the country has to come first. That’s why he must go. I don’t think he will, though. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

    There are good, competent Tory MPs within the ranks of the party though many left when the party switched from being pro to anti EU. T But the huge problem is that the membership cannot be relied on to choose one of them. They are going to choose the most Brexit-pure candidate on offer and when that is the main criteria for success then Johnson is about as good as it gets. Who else Patel? Raab? Braverman? Raab? Rees-Mogg? Dorries?

    If I were a Tory MP my fear would be that a leadership election could end up with an even worse choice.
    I am hoping for JRM as PM. It would complete the farce of the last years, but my fear is that we get Priti Patel who strikes me as ultra-hardline, vicious and nasty.
    No, Leader of the Opposition maybe but if Johnson went the likely next PM would be Wallace or Mordaunt
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,773
    The two by-election swings need to be reckoned against the longer term demographic shifts in voting patterns.

    I don’t think Wakefield means the red wall drift towards conservatism has halted. The realignment in the last decade is real and will surely continue. Against that the Labour win is pretty solid, against a declining trend. A bit like when Labour won Basildon in 1997 against the long term blue tide in the Thames estuary. The North and Midlands will continue to drift rightwards. So Wakefield is a good victory against the run of play.

    Meanwhile the actual blue wall, remain inclined seats in the prosperous South East, will continue to move inexorably towards the Lib Dems. And Labour will continue to take over the big metropolitan areas and trendier coastal towns. But neither were tested this week.

    T&H is neither blue nor red wall and this one feels more interesting because the rural SW is demographically and culturally quite stable. Devon was always a battleground between conservative and liberal; it seemed the Tories had won the argument there from 2015 onwards, but that trend appears to have reversed. That’s not a demographic realignment but true swing voters (and the return of tactical voting).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,388
    eek said:

    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.

    Autumn 2023...

    If you want to use a new leader bounce to win an election - binning Bozo in Summer 2023 would be the appropriate timing - question is how much more damage can Bozo, inflation and what is likely to be a recession (reduced consumer spending is going to do that by itself) do between then and now.
    I think the new boundaries will have an effect, but one dwarfed by swing, tactical voting and economic carnage. They shouldn't be a deciding factor for anyone.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,572
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 70
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yep and I personally agree with you but winning elections requires political nous and expediency.

    Labour want the red wall back. To campaign to rejoin the single market would be suicidal. Labour need the red wall to come back on board, or at least as much of it as possible.

    Yes - Remainers haven't forgiven or forgotten yet. Sooner or later the penny will drop that the Conservatives will need to find an accommodation with the silent majority (now) that opposes its Brexit approach.

    But coming out against Brexit will give Boris's campaigning in the north and rural seats (hit by agripolicy reforms and the Antipodean FTAs) fresh impetus.

    Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake etc

This discussion has been closed.