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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com
The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com
? Lib Dems declare victory in Tiverton and Honiton. Wiping out a huge 24k vote majority – the biggest ever over-turned in a by-election. A spokesperson said: “This is looking like a clear win. The people of Tiverton and Honiton have spoken up for the country."
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A reminder 10882 votes is % Labour got last time. Not much more than that it’s abysmal.
13602 votes is 50% they really need to nudge over to claim good result in special mid term election (any win will be a win at next GE)
Needs to be nearer 14700 of the 27205 to be a special night that proves something.
Glad to see you are on good form as well.
We won't know for a while yet but that kind of swing would be far beyond the Lib Dems' wildest dreams.
https://twitter.com/tomlarkinsky/status/1540164182544465920
Perhaps Tory MPs will wake up to Johnson now being a liability rather than an asset?
https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208
I’ve no idea how they do it. It seems impossible.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540166492620210176
Con 8,241 (30.0%)
Akbar 2,090 (7.6%)
Yorkshire 1,182 (4.3%)
Green 587 (2.1%)
Reform UK 513 (1.9%)
LD 508 (1.8%)
Britain First 311 (1.1%)
Freedom Alliance 187 (0.7%)
Loony 171 (0.6%)
CPA 144 (0.5%)
Eng Dem 135 (0.5%)
UKIP 124 (0.5%)
Northern Ind Party 84 (0.3%)
Fransen 23 (0.1%)
Lab maj = 4,925 (17.9%)
This is the worst Beatles “homage” I have ever seen. Who or what is this?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pqQfVzNhtfk
LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264
First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…
Tories will take that result I think.
Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result
Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.
This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.
But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.
What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
12.7% swing.
I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.
Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?
LD 22,563
Con 16,393
Lab 1,562
Green 1,064
Reform UK 481
UKIP 241
Heritage 167
For Britain 146
LD maj = 6,170
LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)
Earthquake
But not overwhelming.
Nah. In this special election against this back drop? They’ve bombed in red wall again.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1539859093955006465?s=21&t=BxIG4RtwYnIBL0KBK9pfFQ
TLDR; Wakefield is merely “bad” for the Tories; T&H is Chernobyl-tastic.
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming home at GE from this flop?
Don’t let them spin this Red Wall coming home nonsense.
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
This is a Labour seat, contrast with what Lib Dems done exactly the same night in Tory seat?
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
https://www.aec.gov.au/
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786
This result will chill the shadow cabinet and Labour Party, not lift it.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1540172366281691137
Keir Starmer's party has a 4,925 majority, which is way better than expected & a result that can't be dismissed as mere dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540176666600800256
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
If the cabinet do not have confidence in the PM, how can the House?
Lib Dems getting Amazing results in elections this Parliament - Labour underwhelming every time.
I want to see a change of government so I ain’t happy Labour letting their share of bargain down 😠
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
What’s that even mean? They didn’t do better is the fact of it - so maybe they can’t do better in Red Wall leaver areas is the conclusion. Mid term, free punch or open goal night, and they missed.
I agree with the analysis that the ERG have Boris by the goolies, and therefore I expect him to continue spouting “wedge” nonsense unto his final exit.
The wedge stuff is not working, though. It’s actually grossly unpopular in the blue wall and is not halting a slow but discernible tide of disaffection in the red wall.
Boris is a dead man walking.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Dudley_West_by-election
In 1994, Labour gained Dudley West on a 29.1pp swing. Now that is huge.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1540179056867557378
https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1540176666600800256
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-nightmare-as-tories-lose-two-seats-five-minutes_uk_62b52ccce4b06169caa480d8
The large vote for the former Conservative councillor is interesting. Voters want to find someone other than Labour to vote for to protest against the government.
Conference is going to be fun.
Can’t any of you see ahead to what this means? Has the Penny not dropped?
It’s clear now, sadly, Labour are just going to have accept it’s going to take much longer for the red wall to unwind, it’s not all places going to unwind straight back to them next election. In fact Labour voters, and us Lib Dems, and Nats too I think who want change of government at next election have to Realise we have to watch through our fingers on election night, as the two opposition parties in England come from very low starting places to try and overhaul a Tory landslide majority in one go, not just wipe it out but to such extent Boris had to go. So many results in red and blue wall will be touch and go in counts, we will watch through our fingers. Believe this.
This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, and personally I am not happy and don’t want to see much more of that either - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.
You Don’t have to try and match the fun of Boris to win the next election, the way it will work in voters minds is which one they can best imagine behind desk in Downing Street leading country through crisis after crisis, and that wont be Streeting or Nandy ahead of Starmer. That’s the way to beat Boris in the GE PM match up, Boris or switch to someone else to run country - Streeting and Nandy lose votes to experienced Boris because of the “no time for a novice match up”.
Starmer must stay, despite this underwhelming result again in the red wall.
Put some of these labour front bench through rigours of proper government for a bit, some could emerge as primeministers, but the best option at the moment is Starmer.
I’m going now.
If no change for either, then NOM and it’s hard this far out to say which way.
By-election turnout as a % of general election turnout:
Hartlepool: 74%
>Tiverton & Honiton: 72%
Batley & Spen: 71%
North Shropshire: 68%
Chesham & Amersham: 68%
>Wakefield: 61%
Birmingham Erdington: 51%
Old Bexley & Sidcup: 48%
So the low turnout in Wakefield is not out of line with other by-elections. Wakefield only turned out 64% in the GE, so a pretty hard place to motivate the GOTV.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540184661808369664
https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1540184129194557440