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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,048
    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,235
    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    This sort of thing

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midvinterblot#/media/File:Midvinterblot_(Carl_Larsson)_-_Nationalmuseum_-_edited.jpg

    or perhaps

    https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/artifact/scapegoat (which has an arrestingly similar hairstyle)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,024
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Aren't you are former Remainer yourself?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,773
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything
    in the EU.
    I agree it’s probably a pragmatic approach in this parliament but at some point they must stop obsessing about the red wall. It’s not going to be their future heartland. Other electoral opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Would be like the Democrats continually trying to win back the US Deep South.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,905
    Given that byelections exaggerate moods SFAICS the big takeaway from this morning is that Labour is well short of a comfortable position. Wakefield should have been a landslide and wasn't.

    I don't think it all changes much. Boris is massively unpopular. The Tories can turn things around. Labour hasn't got coherent movement behind it yet. The next GE remains extremely open.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,291
    dixiedean said:

    Raab steps up to the plate.

    Raab's message - the electorate giving us a shoeing is a 'distraction'.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,864
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
    This is quite a likely scenario. Time is of the essence. Baby steps in the early years to realign and then potentially back in the SM by the back end of the Parliament or the next Parliament assuming that the progressives are still in power.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    Raab C Brexit drowning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,024
    murali_s said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Agreed. Dowden is clearly a moron (like 90% of the Cabinet).
    Like Lord Wotsisname who just resigned, people who know that they're doing the wrong thing tend to compensate later, even when the straw is smaller.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591

    Raab has drawn the short straw:

    Dominic Raab on Today: "The by election results were as a result of the perfect storm. Very difficult local scenarios...plus the national headwinds, for a midterm government, plus also frankly, the distractions that we've had."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540232526257688577
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    edited June 24
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    When do the new parliamentary boundaries go through? Fairly soon, isn’t it?

    Had a thought - a new Tory leader might get a bounce and want to go to the country quickly. Updated boundaries would be optimal for that.

    On the tactical anti-Tory vote. That’s long been a pattern at by-elections against Tory governments. Sending a message to the government etc.

    Overall the results and a medium large kicking for the government. Not the largest possible, but pretty grim. I think another vote is perfectly possible.

    Autumn 2023...

    If you want to use a new leader bounce to win an election - binning Bozo in Summer 2023 would be the appropriate timing - question is how much more damage can Bozo, inflation and what is likely to be a recession (reduced consumer spending is going to do that by itself) do between then and now.
    I think the new boundaries will have an effect, but one dwarfed by swing, tactical voting and economic carnage. They shouldn't be a deciding factor for anyone.
    on one level new boundaries give the Tories more seats but it reduces / removes any benefit a first time MP usually gets because a lot of constituents will be thinking I never voted for him..

    The second bit may be more important than the first bit, especially up North were some seats are disappearing and large boundary changes are being made.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,336

    Heathener said:

    Blanche ... I do it because then it shows the part of a quote to which you are replying, rather verbatim paragraphs.

    Standard practice in journalism, the media, and academia. But, sure, I'll bung in the ellipses in future.

    It’s also been standard practice online since I first used Usenet in 1995ish: you trim the quote to the minimum necessary. Perhaps less so in this age of Eternal September.
    That was because people were downloading Usenet over 1.4kps modems at so much per bit in 1995ish. Quite unnecessary now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,021
    edited June 24
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything
    in the EU.
    I agree it’s probably a pragmatic approach in this parliament but at some point they must stop obsessing about the red wall. It’s not going to be their future heartland. Other electoral opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Would be like the Democrats continually trying to win back the US Deep South.
    To win a majority Labour have to win back the redwall seats like Wakefield, which to be fair to Starmer they did last night. Southern Remain seats will go LD not Labour.

    The Democrats do not need to win the Deep South to win the White House or Congress
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself
    I’m going to tentatively venture this morning’s election news is not a massive vote of confidence in the one attempt at “governing ourselves” we’ve had since Brexit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,235
    edited June 24
    https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tiverton-honiton-election-tory-candidate-7248805

    (with film)

    'Accompanied by Tory party officials, she arrived at the count before hiding away in a back room. When approached by DevonLive reporter Lewis Clarke her agent says "We are not speaking" and ushers Mr Hurford away. She simply smiles and says "Oh have they" after being told that the Liberal Democrats have just declared a spectacular win, as the votes stacked in their favour and the 24,000 Tory majority is slashed, with a 30 per cent swing to the Lib Dems.

    Ms Hurford and her supporters remained in the back room until the results were announced , with the Liberal Democrats winning 22,537 votes, and the Tories in second place on 16,393. After her ignominious defeat she hastily left the building without any public statement or comment to the press.'
  • From where Labour came from in 2019 to be getting a 12% swing in the Red Wall is clearly good progress. And to say otherwise isn’t fair.

    Should Labour be doing better? Quite possibly - but I am unconvinced anyone would be doing better than Keir
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    TimS said:

    The two by-election swings need to be reckoned against the longer term demographic shifts in voting patterns.

    I don’t think Wakefield means the red wall drift towards conservatism has halted. The realignment in the last decade is real and will surely continue. Against that the Labour win is pretty solid, against a declining trend. A bit like when Labour won Basildon in 1997 against the long term blue tide in the Thames estuary. The North and Midlands will continue to drift rightwards. So Wakefield is a good victory against the run of play.

    Meanwhile the actual blue wall, remain inclined seats in the prosperous South East, will continue to move inexorably towards the Lib Dems. And Labour will continue to take over the big metropolitan areas and trendier coastal towns. But neither were tested this week.

    T&H is neither blue nor red wall and this one feels more interesting because the rural SW is demographically and culturally quite stable. Devon was always a battleground between conservative and liberal; it seemed the Tories had won the argument there from 2015 onwards, but that trend appears to have reversed. That’s not a demographic realignment but true swing voters (and the return of tactical voting).

    I'd be pretty confident that both Tiverton and Honiton will return Tories at the next election.. unless Boris is still leader (in which case I doubt Uxbridge will).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,021
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Aren't you are former Remainer yourself?
    Yes but not standing to be Tory leader.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    Rabb responding to the byelection as he responds to everything: by being an angry resentful know-nothing halfwit.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1540233915994181632
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,905
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Of course there is

    He has accepted responsibility for the crushing defeats and done the right thing

    Furthermore, he has undermined Johnson from within the cabinet and questions will be asked of cabinet ministers who do not follow him
    The opportunity was 18 days ago. He missed it. Like I say, he’s a Wally.
    In a short time the failure to see the importance of taking the one opportunity this year for a relatively bloodless coup will be seen as significant. The 'sophisticated' electorate of Tory MPs have behaved in irrational ways.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,024
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
    Insofar as there is an argument in there, it collapses at the point when you remember that Norway and Switzerland are effectively inside the Single Market.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,012
    OllyT said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
    For all that I have had my run-ins with HYUFD in the past, he's only human, and I'm sure he's disappointed at the results and that his personal efforts to help retain T&H were not successful.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,252
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything
    in the EU.
    I agree it’s probably a pragmatic approach in this parliament but at some point they must stop obsessing about the red wall. It’s not going to be their future heartland. Other electoral opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Would be like the Democrats continually trying to win back the US Deep South.
    So, where are they trying to win seats - as opposed to increasing the majorities in seats they already have?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    You might not like this but Labour are right on this - the best strategy for Labour to pursue is one where they avoid Brexit & focus on rebuilding society, the economy & our democratic institutions.

    https://twitter.com/paul1singh/status/1540234238557097984
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,560
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    algarkirk said:

    Given that byelections exaggerate moods SFAICS the big takeaway from this morning is that Labour is well short of a comfortable position. Wakefield should have been a landslide and wasn't.

    I don't think it all changes much. Boris is massively unpopular. The Tories can turn things around. Labour hasn't got coherent movement behind it yet. The next GE remains extremely open.

    Labour in Wakefield manage to annoy all the local Labour Party members which meant no-one was canvassing for the Labour candidate.

    The one thing Labour needs to learn from this is that they need to ensure the local party members think they had a say in who their MP is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    edited June 24
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything
    in the EU.
    I agree it’s probably a pragmatic approach in this parliament but at some point they must stop obsessing about the red wall. It’s not going to be their future heartland. Other electoral opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Would be like the Democrats continually trying to win back the US Deep South.
    So, where are they trying to win seats - as opposed to increasing the majorities in seats they already have?
    Milton Keynes
    Wycombe
    Chipping Barnet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,021

    OllyT said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
    For all that I have had my run-ins with HYUFD in the past, he's only human, and I'm sure he's disappointed at the results and that his personal efforts to help retain T&H were not successful.
    Indeed though as I said earlier at least the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was higher than in North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham.

    However no spinning otherwise, Boris has until the autumn to turn it round
  • Another two by elections with absurd tactical voting. We must surely now use this in any analysis we make going forward
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,821
    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    At aged ,60, that isn't going to happen in my lifetime. The only positive way forward is closer trading ties including FOM. This has to be engineered by a Conservative Government. Rejoining would be terminally toxic for Labour were they to attempt such a sell out of the working classes. Besides which would the EU even entertain our rejoining on anything other than vastly inferior terms than those on which we left?

    The architect of this entire fiasco is David Cameron.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    Nigel Fucking Farage says the Tories are doomed with BoZo in charge
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 420
    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    I think a few EU initiatives, if proposed as common sense stuff that will improve trade etc, can be sold to the electorate but probably while in Government rather than in an election. I think a Government (not this one) could sell it, but it could be warped in a campaign.
    In other words, lie?

    Fair enough. It's what politicians do

    This is what I predicted, Labour will waffle about tweaking the Brexit arrangements before the election, then, if they take power (looking increasingly likely) they will have a huge internal row about going much further: rejoining the SM. It might be their only chance to do this if they go on to lose in 2028, say (and they could easily be a one term govt if the economy does not assist them)

    My sense is that Starmer, a massive Remainer and a premium brand Second Voter, will yield, and Labour will try to rejoin the SM. They might be given cover by ad hoc Coalition Partners the LDs and SNP, who could make this their key demand in return for support in a hung parliament

    *throws runes away, exhausted*

    Not lie, that wasn't really my angle here. In fact, Labour should be very, very careful to not lie on this issue.

    I was more envisaging a situation where events occur and there are opportunities for collaboration with the EU in certain fields to the benefit of all. In that case, I believe a future Government could sell that to the electorate as a common sense policy.

    What would be terrible politics is banging the drum in a GE talking about how they can't wait to sign up to oodles of EU obligations. Because, even if those are small common sense changes it can be framed in a damaging way.

    Perhaps I'm naive, but I think Starmer's comments are what he said and there's not a huge appetite to go further. Tweaking some of the most disruptive aspects of Brexit is sensible and the party are being upfront about this. If the electorate like it, or can live with it, they'll vote for it.

    If Starmer comes under huge and intense pressure from the Electorate to go further, well that's a future bridge to cross. The electorate will, ultimately, decide the future of Brexit.
  • those close to him say that is not impossible - today’s crisis for Johnson would be pretty close to catastrophe.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Great calls for T&H throughout and who's to say you're wrong about the GE.
    Still an absolute pie though and smug bit to boot, not much to like.
    You're wrong on this one Malc. She (I think she's a she) had to endure a torrent of abuse from the scared little pushing from the back of the crowd PB bullies. But stuck to her guns. Good for her.
    True Topping but dishes it out as well which for me is a good thing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,133
    Mr. Battery, I agree. Later on I'll be checking the markets with a view to backing a Lab majority or perhaps laying a Con one.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    edited June 24

    Another two by elections with absurd tactical voting. We must surely now use this in any analysis we make going forward

    Tactical voting makes sense in by-elections - many people aren't as much voting for a candidate as voting against a particular party and leader.

    The question then becomes how many people do the same thing at general elections - it's clear some people do but it won't be as significant.

    The one thing I see here is that Labour currently seem fairly happy to let the Lib Dems have a clear run in places where a Remain / Return viewpoint does well. That allows Labour to keep an open position and helps Labour fight for the Red Wall seats they lost to Bozo.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tiverton-honiton-election-tory-candidate-7248805

    (with film)

    'Accompanied by Tory party officials, she arrived at the count before hiding away in a back room. When approached by DevonLive reporter Lewis Clarke her agent says "We are not speaking" and ushers Mr Hurford away. She simply smiles and says "Oh have they" after being told that the Liberal Democrats have just declared a spectacular win, as the votes stacked in their favour and the 24,000 Tory majority is slashed, with a 30 per cent swing to the Lib Dems.

    Ms Hurford and her supporters remained in the back room until the results were announced , with the Liberal Democrats winning 22,537 votes, and the Tories in second place on 16,393. After her ignominious defeat she hastily left the building without any public statement or comment to the press.'

    Really odd thing to do as she would surely know Lewis personally as pretty much everyone who has been politically active in Tiverton at any time does.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,252

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
    They’re not making money, they’re burning through VC capital and hoping to get to a stock market listing.

    At some point, the used car market is going to turn rapidly, and anyone holding inventory is going to get their fingers burned.

    People are selling 3-year-old cars for almost the new price at the moment - traditionally they’d be worth around half the new price, maybe 60% for premium brands.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    Keir Starmer speaking in Wakefield: “The story party is absolutely imploding. They know they’re out of ideas and out of touch. If they had any decency they’d get out of the way for the next Labour government.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540236436611518465
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,021
    edited June 24

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    At aged ,60, that isn't going to happen in my lifetime. The only positive way forward is closer trading ties including FOM. This has to be engineered by a Conservative Government. Rejoining would be terminally toxic for Labour were they to attempt such a sell out of the working classes. Besides which would the EU even entertain our rejoining on anything other than vastly inferior terms than those on which we left?

    The architect of this entire fiasco is David Cameron.
    The Tories will obviously never rejoin the EEA plus FM or they lose half their vote to Farage again. Only way it happens is a hung parliament with Tories most seats and LDs and SNP insist on it to make Starmer PM. Then Tories accept it in a generation or two.


  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,252
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
    I've had poor experiences with chargers in the UK - up until last weekend.
    I went to the Electric Forecourt place that Gridserve rolled out (they bought Ecoserve/Electric Highway's entire motorway business recently) and oh my God what a difference!

    My wife described it as "like going from Economy to Business Class." Thirty charges, a whole bunch of mega-fast ones, an attendant comes out if you have any issues, tap and go on the charger, and luxury service station area. They're rolling out another 40 of these and 100+ "Electric Hubs." When they have, it's done.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,235

    those close to him say that is not impossible - today’s crisis for Johnson would be pretty close to catastrophe.

    Er, what is not impossible ...?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,084

    OllyT said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
    For all that I have had my run-ins with HYUFD in the past, he's only human, and I'm sure he's disappointed at the results and that his personal efforts to help retain T&H were not successful.
    Indeed, and he stepped up and contributed to the democratic process, the life blood of a free society. We should all be grateful to him for that. My view has always been that while the Tories are our *opponents*, our *enemies* are those who say that voting changes nothing.
  • dixiedean said:

    Raab steps up to the plate.

    ...and with the Ashes on the line, Stevie Wonder strides out to bat with a stick of celery.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,810
    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer speaking in Wakefield: “The story party is absolutely imploding. They know they’re out of ideas and out of touch. If they had any decency they’d get out of the way for the next Labour government.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540236436611518465

    I assume his typo not yours?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,775
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Aren't you are former Remainer yourself?
    He is. So on his own logic the former Remainer HYUFD can be ignored as he isn't a True Tory.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,515

    Two terrible results for Boris.

    God knows what those apologists for him are thinking this morning. If they "needed to hear the view of the voters" before moving him out, then they are tin-eared pillocks, utterly out of touch with their electorate. The voters have spoken - and it is to say to Boris "fuck off and die". It has been clear for months that Partygate crystallised a "never again" sentiment against him. Only a new leader and PM can stop that sentiment bleeding into a toxicity for the Party.

    I've been saying this for months. Get Penny Mordaunt in, pronto. If she were PM, we would now have a Conservative MP in T&H. Possibly also in Wakefield. But in T&H especially, having to give support for Boris, however luke-warm, killed any credibility as a candidate. As it would for many of those who recently voted to keep him in post.

    The turnout figures tell many that Tories are sitting on their hands. I like Boris despite his peccadillos but he is now a drag on competent government and has lost it as a vote winner.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    "They are disastrous results for the Conservative Party - they ought to be disastrous for the prime minister."

    Former Tory MP Dominic Grieve says he doesn't expect Boris Johnson's resignation following the by-election defeats.

    #KayBurley: http://trib.al/dwvcRFT https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1540237386491248640/video/1
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    edited June 24
    Regarding the RMT strike and what the Government is demanding from workers
    FV-0s-UIWIAE644-Z

    https://twitter.com/PennyBurdett/status/1540218643249872896

    Edit - grr can't link to images stored on twitter anymore.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,560
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
    They’re not making money, they’re burning through VC capital and hoping to get to a stock market listing.

    At some point, the used car market is going to turn rapidly, and anyone holding inventory is going to get their fingers burned.

    People are selling 3-year-old cars for almost the new price at the moment - traditionally they’d be worth around half the new price, maybe 60% for premium brands.
    As you indicate; that way lies madness!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    I wonder whether this Oliver Dowden is related to the one who resigned as Tory Party Chairman this morning 🤔
    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1540237736992464896
    https://twitter.com/oliverdowden/status/1533719783094554624
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,235
    edited June 24
    JonWC said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tiverton-honiton-election-tory-candidate-7248805

    (with film)

    'Accompanied by Tory party officials, she arrived at the count before hiding away in a back room. When approached by DevonLive reporter Lewis Clarke her agent says "We are not speaking" and ushers Mr Hurford away. She simply smiles and says "Oh have they" after being told that the Liberal Democrats have just declared a spectacular win, as the votes stacked in their favour and the 24,000 Tory majority is slashed, with a 30 per cent swing to the Lib Dems.

    Ms Hurford and her supporters remained in the back room until the results were announced , with the Liberal Democrats winning 22,537 votes, and the Tories in second place on 16,393. After her ignominious defeat she hastily left the building without any public statement or comment to the press.'

    Really odd thing to do as she would surely know Lewis personally as pretty much everyone who has been politically active in Tiverton at any time does.
    And your point about returning to Tory hands at the next GE means that she could have been in a position to try again (ignoring those odd gaps in her website CV). So unwise of her to waste all the effort she has put in.
  • Speaking in Rwanda after the by-election defeats, Boris Johnson said he would “listen” to the message from voters, but vowed to “keep going” as prime minister.

    He blamed the by-election defeats on the spiralling cost of living and said there was “more to do” to help people cope

    Is this accepting he’s doomed?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 584
    dixiedean said:

    Raab steps up to the plate.

    And politically jumps off the train into the oncoming Westminster express ...
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    edited June 24

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
    Not really

    Cinch is / was the final part of the jigsaw where BCA took control of the whole second hand car market

    They now own

    We buy any car - buy direct from the public

    BCA car auctions
    Multiple car refurbishing sites

    Cinch - sell direct to the public

    A lot of dealers have given up trying to buy from BCA as BCA have managed to grab all the profit.

    Now if you are talking about Cazoo - that's a business with a problem...

    And Cinch only came along when BCA discovered that 2 of their car refurbishing sites were 100% utilised by Cazoo so it only required a website and a marketing campaign to pick up the final part of the business BCA were missing.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,775

    OllyT said:

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?


    Might be doing him a disservice but I suspect he's waiting for HQ to email the faithful telling them how to spin the results. He could be in for a long wait
    For all that I have had my run-ins with HYUFD in the past, he's only human, and I'm sure he's disappointed at the results and that his personal efforts to help retain T&H were not successful.
    But its his fault. HIS defeat. We hear him on here. A deaf, arrogant, sneering buffoon. His entire party sounds the same, and people are sick of them. Imagine getting a call from HY or one like him - sky is green, Boris is moral, the economy is brilliant, there are no issues.

    That the Tories got another reaming is directly HY's fault. Personally. He is a cheerleader for the lunatic personality cult which has taken over what used to be the Conservative and Unionist Party.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,821
    edited June 24
    Will tactical voting work quite so efficiently against the next leader? Is this not a specific desire to punish Johnson?
  • Frostie comes out to explain away the results.

    In Tiverton there was some Lab/Lib switching, but their total vote as a share of the whole *electorate* only went up from from 25% to 29%.

    The Tory vote collapsed from 43% to just under 20%. Nearly 20,000 of our voters stayed at home. That's why we lost. (2/4)

    Labour won a landslide in 1997 precisely because Tory voters stayed at home. These people are in denial
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 648
    Wakefield the Labour vote fell from 17,925 at General Election to 13,166 yesterday
    Tiverton and Honiton the Lib Dem vote went from 8,807 to 22,537

    Louise Haigh on today programme saying voters coming back to Labour. No evidence from Wakefield.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,905

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    At aged ,60, that isn't going to happen in my lifetime. The only positive way forward is closer trading ties including FOM. This has to be engineered by a Conservative Government. Rejoining would be terminally toxic for Labour were they to attempt such a sell out of the working classes. Besides which would the EU even entertain our rejoining on anything other than vastly inferior terms than those on which we left?

    The architect of this entire fiasco is David Cameron.
    The architect of this fiasco is 40 years of successive governments failing to get the permission of the people for what amounted to a series of constitutional changes, in the belief that the slowly boiled frog would not notice. This democratic deficit was and is compounded by the structural democratic deficit within the EU itself.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,084
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
    They’re not making money, they’re burning through VC capital and hoping to get to a stock market listing.

    At some point, the used car market is going to turn rapidly, and anyone holding inventory is going to get their fingers burned.

    People are selling 3-year-old cars for almost the new price at the moment - traditionally they’d be worth around half the new price, maybe 60% for premium brands.
    As you indicate; that way lies madness!
    Not really

    Cinch is / was the final part of the jigsaw where BCA took control of the whole second hand car market

    They now own

    We buy any car - buy direct from the public

    BCA car auctions
    Multiple car refurbishing sites

    Cinch - sell direct to the public

    A lot of dealers have given up trying to buy from BCA as BCA have managed to grab all the profit.

    Now if you are talking about Cazoo - that's a business with a problem...
    That sounds like something the competition authorities should look at. I would never use Cinch anyway because their ads are the most annoying I have ever heard!
    When I bought my last car I went through Auto Trader and did a part exchange, got a great deal and they drove the new car down from Derbyshire and drove my old one back up. Very happy and no nasty private equity wankers to profit out of it, just a good old fashioned honest used car dealer.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,462

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    Robert Buckland, former justice sec, @skynews says the two defeats are a “perfect storm” of cost of living issues and confidence in Boris Johnson’s leadership - “not party organisation”

    He says postal votes will have been sent in during the confidence vote

    “The Conservative party still has the answers this country needs… what’s frustrated those of us on the side (he was sacked form cabinet), is a lack of focus on the solutions this country needs”.

    He says “throwing the captain over the edge” isn’t the solution

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1540239337966772224
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,235

    Will tactical voting work quite so efficiently against the next leader? Is this not a specific desire to punish Johnson?

    OTOH there are the issues of contamination by the Johnsonian snake oil so lavishly poured into the pool of candidates acceptable to the membership, plus loss of the 'he's a laugh' brigade?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,048
    edited June 24
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
    Insofar as there is an argument in there, it collapses at the point when you remember that Norway and Switzerland are effectively inside the Single Market.
    And none of them want to go further into political union, and, indeed, Switzerland is determinedly moving AWAY from the EU

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-eu-idAFKCN2D70LV


    If you are outside the EU and surviving nicely, no one wants to go in, because the EU is a piece of anti-democratic shite (hence, Brexit)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,195

    Hahaha, this is fabulously deluded.

    Lord David Brent, sorry, Frost on Twitter: “It's important to cut through the noise and spin on the Wakefield and Tiverton results.

    Both are terrible for @Conservatives.

    Neither is particularly good for @labour or @LibDems.

    Why? (1/4)”

    http://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1540218121943916550

    Frosty as ever putting the “fat” in “fatuous”.

    You can spin Wakefield as a regular by-election defeat, but having a Christchurch level bar for T&H is preposterous. If the Tories held on by 10% in Castle Point or South Holland and the Deepings no doubt it'd be spun as a magnificent success by these pillocks.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,863
    edited June 24

    From where Labour came from in 2019 to be getting a 12% swing in the Red Wall is clearly good progress. And to say otherwise isn’t fair.

    Should Labour be doing better? Quite possibly - but I am unconvinced anyone would be doing better than Keir

    Parliamentary by-election gains for Labour have been rare beasts. The last three have taken between them 25 years - Wirral South (1997), Corby (2012) and now Wakefield.

    It is a significant recovery and the 48% Labour share and 18% winning margin comfortably exceeded the figures that Mary Creagh achieved on the same boundaries in 2005 (43% and 12% margin), the last GE to deliver a Labour government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,376
    edited June 24
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself
    The UK already governs itself and always has you twat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,663
    The chancellor’s team are briefing that he might resign, for the 17th time this year. The nation would shrug, but even that feels too much for this particular bit of briefing.
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1540235670110838785
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,821
    Icarus said:

    Wakefield the Labour vote fell from 17,925 at General Election to 13,166 yesterday
    Tiverton and Honiton the Lib Dem vote went from 8,807 to 22,537

    Louise Haigh on today programme saying voters coming back to Labour. No evidence from Wakefield.

    An interesting interpretation of data. Have you considered historical by election turnout expectations?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258
    Icarus said:

    Wakefield the Labour vote fell from 17,925 at General Election to 13,166 yesterday
    Tiverton and Honiton the Lib Dem vote went from 8,807 to 22,537

    Louise Haigh on today programme saying voters coming back to Labour. No evidence from Wakefield.

    Hold on - what would those Wakefield figures look like when adjusted for differences in turnout?
  • Scott_xP said:

    I wonder whether this Oliver Dowden is related to the one who resigned as Tory Party Chairman this morning 🤔
    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1540237736992464896
    https://twitter.com/oliverdowden/status/1533719783094554624

    I don't know how Dowden will respond to this when he gets out from under the duvet and speaks about his resignation.

    But one perfectly fair response would be that the people have spoken since MPs had their confidence vote and he, unlike the PM, has listened. There's nothing wrong with concluding, based on facts, that the confidence of the general public has been lost and you now believe change at the top is needed.

    Failing to change your mind in light of evidence isn't a sign you're principled and consistent. It's a sign you're unreflecting, cloth-eared, and terminally thick.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,265
    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    Sorry but Bozo the clown is in charge alongside a group of grade A muppets so although a deal with the EU is the same choice (after all they are next door to us) that isn't an option..

    We could have a successful realistic Brexit but that requires the people in power to be realistic and to understand the actual position we are in not the completely imaginary one they believe Britain is in.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Carnyx said:

    JonWC said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tiverton-honiton-election-tory-candidate-7248805

    (with film)

    'Accompanied by Tory party officials, she arrived at the count before hiding away in a back room. When approached by DevonLive reporter Lewis Clarke her agent says "We are not speaking" and ushers Mr Hurford away. She simply smiles and says "Oh have they" after being told that the Liberal Democrats have just declared a spectacular win, as the votes stacked in their favour and the 24,000 Tory majority is slashed, with a 30 per cent swing to the Lib Dems.

    Ms Hurford and her supporters remained in the back room until the results were announced , with the Liberal Democrats winning 22,537 votes, and the Tories in second place on 16,393. After her ignominious defeat she hastily left the building without any public statement or comment to the press.'

    Really odd thing to do as she would surely know Lewis personally as pretty much everyone who has been politically active in Tiverton at any time does.
    And your point about returning to Tory hands at the next GE means that she could have been in a position to try again (ignoring those odd gaps in her website CV). So unwise of her to waste all the effort she has put in.
    I'd guess she's had enough for a lifetime tbh. Ironic, as her unfortunate speaking style would have been irrelevant at a GE and she would have cruised to victory.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,482
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything
    in the EU.
    I agree it’s probably a pragmatic approach in this parliament but at some point they must stop obsessing about the red wall. It’s not going to be their future heartland. Other electoral opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Would be like the Democrats continually trying to win back the US Deep South.
    So, where are they trying to win seats - as opposed to increasing the majorities in seats they already have?
    I have plugged some reasonable figures based on current polling etc into electoral calculus, and it gives a list of the changed seats.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&scotshow=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=39&LIB=12&Reform=1&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=30&TVLIB=50&TVReform=10&TVGreen=50&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=1.6&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=44.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Lab 5 short of a majority, and the mix of changes covers a lot of the country. Like @dixiedean I don’t think Red Wall seats are a block, or indeed very different from other marginals.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,084
    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    Brexit is just a bad idea and cannot succeed on the terms it was sold on as they were contradictory. You are right that an additional problem that Brexit faces is that an overwhelming majority of the kind of competent, intelligent people who are needed to implement policy think it is a stupid idea, but that is a secondary issue. The main issue is that it actually is a stupid idea.
  • Patel to @TimesRadio:

    "What I would say is we have gone through very publicly a very difficult period."

    "It's important that we reflect on these results. We fought these against a difficult and challenging backdrop."

    Anyone who thinks the Tories will ever get rid of BoJo is surely deluded. He’s leading them into the next GE
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,775
    At what time this morning is Carrie Johnson installed as the new Tory Party Chair?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 313
    Megalol at Jayda Fransen getting an enormous 23 (twenty-three) votes.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258
    Just got bit matched at 5.5 for Johnson not to be PM at the time of the Oct conference (BF). Dowden's resignation may prove even more significant that the loss of T&H.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Icarus said:

    Wakefield the Labour vote fell from 17,925 at General Election to 13,166 yesterday
    Tiverton and Honiton the Lib Dem vote went from 8,807 to 22,537

    Louise Haigh on today programme saying voters coming back to Labour. No evidence from Wakefield.

    I also thought Wakefield was exactly what you would expect from a fairly normal mid-term government and said not a lot about the next election, whereas T and H says Boris out, right now.
  • Here is an interesting point.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to get Brexit done and to stop being taken for granted. They've achieved those things.

    What if going forward these seats just swing as others do?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,048
    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



  • ❗ NEW TRACKER:

    🔴 Labour lead by 6
    🟡 Highest Lib Dem share in six months
    🔵 Two-thirds not confident in government

    Lab 38% (-1)
    Con 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 14% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,630 questioned Wed & Thu. Changes with 15 - 16 June.

    Details - technetracker.co.uk
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,664
    Monumental!!

    More than happy to lose my small bet on Tories in Devon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,249

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Maybe, but it just feels a bit different. 7 extra years (9 by the time of the GE) mean the 'time for a change' vote will be higher absent the Corbyn and Brexit factors.

    Losing by elections used to be normal but they're not used to it anymore. The Tories will do better at the GE in these seats, but they are the ones who now need to work to recover - can Boris fo that?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,084
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    The stabbed in the back Brexit myth takes shape.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Given the electricity prices in UK it will soon be dearer to charge an EV than to fill a diesel.
    Personally I am going for a Range Rover Velar this time but will be nice and settle for a 2L to do my bit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,777

    From where Labour came from in 2019 to be getting a 12% swing in the Red Wall is clearly good progress. And to say otherwise isn’t fair.

    Should Labour be doing better? Quite possibly - but I am unconvinced anyone would be doing better than Keir

    Parliamentary by-election gains for Labour have been rare beasts. The last three have taken between them 25 years - Wirral South (1997), Corby (2012) and now Wakefield.

    It is a significant recovery and the 48% Labour share and 18% winning margin comfortably exceeded the figures that Mary Creagh achieved on the same boundaries in 2005 (43% and 12% margin), the last GE to deliver a Labour government.
    Point of order.
    2010 was the first election fought on these boundaries.
    2005 was only 3 of the current 6 wards. So it was barely half of the present seat.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,583
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Given the electricity prices in UK it will soon be dearer to charge an EV than to fill a diesel.
    Personally I am going for a Range Rover Velar this time but will be nice and settle for a 2L to do my bit.
    Bless.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,008
    geoffw said:

    Two terrible results for Boris.

    God knows what those apologists for him are thinking this morning. If they "needed to hear the view of the voters" before moving him out, then they are tin-eared pillocks, utterly out of touch with their electorate. The voters have spoken - and it is to say to Boris "fuck off and die". It has been clear for months that Partygate crystallised a "never again" sentiment against him. Only a new leader and PM can stop that sentiment bleeding into a toxicity for the Party.

    I've been saying this for months. Get Penny Mordaunt in, pronto. If she were PM, we would now have a Conservative MP in T&H. Possibly also in Wakefield. But in T&H especially, having to give support for Boris, however luke-warm, killed any credibility as a candidate. As it would for many of those who recently voted to keep him in post.

    The turnout figures tell many that Tories are sitting on their hands. I like Boris despite his peccadillos but he is now a drag on competent government and has lost it as a vote winner.

    I did predict the big winner would be the Can't Be Arsed Party.

    Tories can still get a big swing from CBA with a new leader.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,482
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
    Insofar as there is an argument in there, it collapses at the point when you remember that Norway and Switzerland are effectively inside the Single Market.
    The other flaw is that if the tide changes, and we are reconverging, albeit on relatively small pragmatic issues, then the gap to Rejoining SM or EU proper is getting smaller with time, not greater.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Jonathan said:

    Curtice

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    You cannot help yourself with a sly dig at Dowden, the one cabinet minister who has honourably resigned, while Johnson hides away in Africa

    He is toxic and hopefully at least one or more cabinet ministers will side with Dowden and follow him out of cabinet

    It is good to hear the 1922 are reconsidering how to bring Johnson to book
    Dowden is a bit of a wally. There’s not much honour in resigning now after publicly supporting Johnson 18 days ago.
    Of course there is

    He has accepted responsibility for the crushing defeats and done the right thing

    Furthermore, he has undermined Johnson from within the cabinet and questions will be asked of cabinet ministers who do not follow him
    Just another slimeball cowardly useless Tory who has finally realised he is crap.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,690
    Congrats to both Labour and the LibDems!

    Double whammy!

    (or triple whammy if you include Dowden going!)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 313
    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    This is about right, imvho. People don't want to hear about this, even though many (a majority) regret leaving nobody normal wants to go back to this debate - and we need as a nation to move on from our (even worse) version of the Dreyfus Affair.

    Labour need actual policies, and to take some education-education-education style initiative in getting them out and planting some flags.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,406
    algarkirk said:

    The architect of this fiasco is 40 years of successive governments failing to get the permission of the people for what amounted to a series of constitutional changes, in the belief that the slowly boiled frog would not notice. This democratic deficit was and is compounded by the structural democratic deficit within the EU itself.

    Correct. It's also clear from comments on here this morning that many Labour supporters would still like to hoodwink the public, and get tight with the EU again via the backdoor and without popular consent. It's like they have learnt nothing. Maybe the Tories will win the next election despite Boris?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,493
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Those who ordered the sandwich should take responsibility for the sandwich. If the sandwich's fragrant aroma was contingent on permanent silence from its critics, maybe it was a bad sandwich to begin with.
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