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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,208
    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Surely the onus is on the winners, those who campaigned for it, to make Brexit a success. That is the way these things usually work. You can't expect those that believed (and still believe) that Brexit was a big mistake to pull your chestnuts out of the fire.

    So if I interpret you and @Boulay correctly, if Brexit turns out to be an economic failure its going to be because the people who believed it was going to be a failure didn't work hard enough to make a success!

    You see? This is why Brexit is more like a religious question than a political/economic question

    You're like a weirdly-alive Thomas More in about 1548 saying "So if the Reformation is a failure you want us ex-cardinals to come back and fix it for you? How about No? It was always bound to be a failure, it is evil, and wrong"

    We are mid-Reformation. The Catholics are not reconciled. We need a Queen Elizabeth to ascend the throne, burn a few recusants - pour encourager les autres - and then tell the rest of England to move on, without making windows into men's souls
    Hear me out on this but I actually think Brexit is like giving birth. A lot of pain and then the bastard child of satan emerges.

    Was that it?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,379
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    We could have a Norway or Switzerland type solution but your types have consistently rules that out.
    And it's worth thinking about why.

    The calculation that Norway and Switzerland made was that, as small rich countries, the amount of input they would have into Brussels deliberations would be pretty small, and not much of a sacrifice.

    So it's sensible to "buy" autonomy for one or two big things (fish and banking) at the cost of less autonomy in other things.

    The UK, as a big country, gives up more by not being part of the politics. And we haven't really worked out explicitly what bits of autonomy we want in exchange for that. May's plan, roughly about getting control of human movement at the cost of everything else, was an attempt at that, but not a popular one with anyone once it was written down

    And that's why this isn't working. Whilst Norway or Switzerland might work for people and businesses, I can't see British Conservative politicians ever accepting it. Maybe they should. But they won't.

    "We should be in charge, not in orbit." Spectator headline in about 2040. You read it here first.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,418
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo phoned 3 people this morning

    Dowden
    Sunak
    Chief whip

    1 is obvious. 2 is "Please don't quit". 3 is "How many more...?"

    I am kind of hoping he applies for asylum in Rwanda. They would probably put him on a plane to the UK though!
  • eekeek Posts: 20,174

    As we begin a much more interesting weekend than I had expected, two “what if” thoughts:
    • imagine if the rebels had waited until next Monday to hold a confidence vote
    • imagine that Durham constabulary decided to fine Starmer today…
    Looking forward to cabinet Twitter today


    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1540240883068637185

    That will be the Durham Constabulary who on multiple occasions have said no decision will be made until July.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,501
    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
    Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?

    I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.

    It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,423
    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:



    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    The leavers didn't give up after Maastricht and we're not giving up now or ever. Fuck your Brexit.
    Not “my” Brexit - I had no right to vote either way despite the fact that the result had and has fundamental effects on my life and the place I live.

    I am simply saying that Brexit was left in the hands of ideologues and idiots whilst Remainers were sulking and trying to hobble things and hoping that if they did that then magically everyone would forget they voted and the decision could be reversed by a second vote or BINO.

    The blame for the crap mess of where we are is firmly in the hands of Boris and the Brexiters who hold the levers of power however I believe that if Remainers and Rejoiners had not sulked off then maybe they would have been able to negotiate a better middle ground rather than the polarised situation we have and removed the need for stupid decisions made by Brexiters in power that were made purely to show “Brexit benefits” as quickly as possible instead of doing it better.

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
    You are telling a wrong version of history. What happened was TMay took over No 10, then people repeatedly voted for the Brexit offer of the "ideologues and idiots" and voted to disempower anyone else's idea of Brexit, be it Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn or anyone.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 18,927

    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevant

    We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view
    The idea people dont 'get it' if they live overseas is arrant nonsense.

    People might think sandpit or roger or whoever is wrong and be correct but it won't be because of distance. Sometimes distance can even help.
    It’s quite amusing that it never seems to be directed at Robert.
    Most of my posts to him begin "I don't know what it's like in LA but..."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,208
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
    Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?

    I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.

    It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
    Good for you very happy to hear it. You do know that the final task to expunge all concerns about it is to snog @Leon. And yes tongues.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,363
    Heathener said:

    Re. next Conservative leader, Penny Mordaunt is the only one I fear. So I'm with @MarqueeMark on this.

    None of the others worry me.

    But Penny could give SKS a serious run for his money and I would no longer be as confident about the tories losing power.

    p.s. of course, there might be someone else in the wings. Or another in the current cabinet who really rises to the occasion. That happened in a way with David Cameron who was Shadow Sec of Education and gave a 'wow' speech at the conference where he walked around the stage.

    She is probably the best of a bad bunch, but I think a lot of "new Maggie" love is being projected on her by Tories of a certain age. They dominate the selectors, so could put her in the job, but she really is rather a blank slate who is yet to be battle tested.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,660
    edited June 24

    As we begin a much more interesting weekend than I had expected, two “what if” thoughts:
    • imagine if the rebels had waited until next Monday to hold a confidence vote
    • imagine that Durham constabulary decided to fine Starmer today…
    Looking forward to cabinet Twitter today


    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1540240883068637185

    I too have been fully expecting the Starmer fine today in the light of the by elections. It would massively change the narrative away from Johnson. Funny handshakes all around in that instance.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,811
    Scott_xP said:

    Another problem for diehard "Brexit, right or obviously wrong" supporters like @Leon is Ukraine applying for membership.

    If it's so good for them, why not us?

    Come on, that's easy. The EU makes great sense for Tin Pot Little African European countries, like Ukraine.* But not for great, proud nations that used to rule half the world (and think they still do) such as ourselves.

    *obviously (I hope) I'm not serious on this, but I do think it's a view some leavers had, that the UK was too big and special to need to be part of the EU - US, EU and UK three equal partners in the world, possiby with the UK and maybe US more equal than the others
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,418
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    This is the problem with your argument. The vote has been accepted, implemented, and we are living with the consequences. It’s mandate is fulfilled. It has no mandate left. Your frankly sinister blaming of Remainers under the bed for all the ills that befall this country (“…hobbled…” “…problem for U.K. PLC…”) is a distraction exercise. We have honoured the Referendum. It has been respected. Fully.

    But isn’t good enough for you. You want 23/06/2016 worshipped forevermore as the coming of the true religion, a voice from Mount Sinai that can never be gainsaid. In your mind, Remainers insist on worshipping their Golden Calf - so we can never enter the promised land. Pernicious, and frankly a little sinister, nonsense.
    It is fundamentally because he is intelligent enough to realise it was a mistake, but too proud to admit it, so wants to blame someone else.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,561
    @Leon takes a time machine ride to c.1650:

    "Well then you need to talk to "all the members of the Cavalier Party" who apparently want to Restore the Stuarts, and who are quietly working towards that.

    "This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to the Republic/Commonwealth, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Cavaliers and the Covenanters. They want to Restore, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    "Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith."
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,612
    edited June 24
    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:



    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    The leavers didn't give up after Maastricht and we're not giving up now or ever. Fuck your Brexit.
    Not “my” Brexit - I had no right to vote either way despite the fact that the result had and has fundamental effects on my life and the place I live.

    I am simply saying that Brexit was left in the hands of ideologues and idiots whilst Remainers were sulking and trying to hobble things and hoping that if they did that then magically everyone would forget they voted and the decision could be reversed by a second vote or BINO.

    The blame for the crap mess of where we are is firmly in the hands of Boris and the Brexiters who hold the levers of power however I believe that if Remainers and Rejoiners had not sulked off then maybe they would have been able to negotiate a better middle ground rather than the polarised situation we have and removed the need for stupid decisions made by Brexiters in power that were made purely to show “Brexit benefits” as quickly as possible instead of doing it better.

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
    As has been mentioned before, the remainers didn't sulk, they were excluded from any of the transition process from the start, and once the clown got in charge he started to weaponise it for ideological reasons. That's what the tories do. Cameron was no different. He smuggled in under the cover of "putting the finances right" various nasty policies firmly driven from his nasty wing. Unfortunately, to my great sadness, the orange bookers were implicated in this as well, and it's taking years to remove the tory stench.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,473

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    It is difficult to be "reconciled" with something that was pointless and clear self-harm that was presented to the British people as a one way street with no option to reconsider, and was almost certainly helped in the propaganda war by a hostile power.

    Nonetheless many of us accept we have to live with it however pointless and braindead it was as a decision.

    There would be more likelihood in moving on from the divisiveness if folk like you stopped paradoxically moaning about "remoaners" and actually took some responsibility for the fact that via the stupidity of Brexit you have given us the worst PM in UK history, and for those of us that used to be Tories, you have wrecked the reputation of the Conservative Party, and probably will put it out of office for a generation.
    I am but a humble flint knapper. WTF can I do? Carve a new dildo celebrating the EEA?

    And let's not exonerate the 2nd voters. One of the reasons we ended up with a rather rushed Brexit is because so many people actually wanted to annul the vote, without even enacting it - thereby cancelling British democracy - so the Brexiteers got the willies and pushed through whatever they could

    Send an angry letter to the Leader of the Opposition, the biggest Second Voter of them all
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,208
    edited June 24
    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    There is only one person to blame for the Wakefield result.

    The main reason that Wakefield's swing voters chose Labour was "Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public", followed by "Boris Johnson is not in touch with working-class people".


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1540212171606564864
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,423
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    The merely political problem, beyond all the policy and principled problems with separating from Europe, was ramming the most hardline nationalist English Brexit down the throats of voters on a 52% mandate.

    It wasn't, 'the most hardline Nationalist English Brexit.'

    That would have been No Deal and a hard border in Ireland. Instead we have a trade deal with the EU
    This is actually a fair point. A lot of people thought Boris really wanted no deal but he didn't and shot their fox when he came back with one.

    Now, even he now seems to repudiate some of that deal, and it's being used for politicking now, but the fact remains those who said he wanted no deal, the hardest of Brexits, were demonstrably wrong. It really undercut opposition attacks about the risks of voting for him.
    If you mean there was some even more self-harming version, I agree. But on a 52% mandate, they went to the most extreme they could devise for GB, in part by carving out NI. And that embittered people in a way EEA wouldn't have. That's all I'm saying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,937
    Scott_xP said:

    Another problem for diehard "Brexit, right or obviously wrong" supporters like @Leon is Ukraine applying for membership.

    If it's so good for them, why not us?

    This has been answered many many times. It's very easy even if one dislikes Brexit to construct a sound argument as to why the EU would be good for them but not us. Our situations are to put it mildly pretty different.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,533

    @Leon takes a time machine ride to c.1650:

    "Well then you need to talk to "all the members of the Cavalier Party" who apparently want to Restore the Stuarts, and who are quietly working towards that.

    "This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to the Republic/Commonwealth, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Cavaliers and the Covenanters. They want to Restore, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    "Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith."

    I quite like that analogy
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,874
    Morning!
    So Tiverton wasnt close. Ouch for PM.
    Wakefield goodish for Labour but only enough for Starmer to be minority PM i think. Tories will be relieved in a sense to grub together 30% especially given the circumstances of the vacancy. Those stay at homes arent likely to be rushing to vote Labour next time out and Wakefield reverts to a Labour held marginal i think..........

    Plus Rishi, cabinet and Durham watch fun all day
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,497

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Why not just get a Volvo PHEV?
    1. Weight

    2. Uyghur and Tibetan genocides
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,754
    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Surely the onus is on the winners, those who campaigned for it, to make Brexit a success. That is the way these things usually work. You can't expect those that believed (and still believe) that Brexit was a big mistake to pull your chestnuts out of the fire.

    So if I interpret you and @Boulay correctly, if Brexit turns out to be an economic failure its going to be because the people who believed it was going to be a failure didn't work hard enough to make a success!

    You see? This is why Brexit is more like a religious question than a political/economic question

    You're like a weirdly-alive Thomas More in about 1548 saying "So if the Reformation is a failure you want us ex-cardinals to come back and fix it for you? How about No? It was always bound to be a failure, it is evil, and wrong"

    We are mid-Reformation. The Catholics are not reconciled. We need a Queen Elizabeth to ascend the throne, burn a few recusants - pour encourager les autres - and then tell the rest of England to move on, without making windows into men's souls
    Good analogy, spectacularly poorly applied.

    Joining the EU = the Reformation. Currently a Counter-Reformation attempt is underway. The Brexiteers have got Bloody Mary Johnson on the throne and are trying to enforce the old ways (imperial measures and all).

    It can't last. The sweep of history is agin you. No teenager alive today will be carrying the torch for Brexit as PM in 30 years time.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,174

    glw said:

    glw said:

    We reach a bilateral deal with the EEA like the Swiss have done. Pick and choose what we want and what the EEA will accept. Like the Swiss. Not EU, not EEA, not CU. "Independent" with continued alignment and mutual free access to each other's markets.

    Great, how do I vote for these people?

    Currently my choice is:
    1. Brexit is already perfect.
    2. Don't talk about Brexit. (Rejoin by stealth).
    3. Rejoin.

    Who is 3? Not the LibDems. We favour getting back into the EEA, not rejoining the EU.
    That is the initial steps, but isn't the intent still to rejoin the EU?
    The EU won't have us! This is the simple realpolitik point that Leon ignores. We left. They won't allow us back, and if they made us an offer it would be on their terms that we couldn't accept.
    And that's the other half of the issue - Bozo and co believe the UK is so great that they don't grasp the position of weakness we are negotiating from.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,341

    Fishing said:

    ❗ NEW TRACKER:

    🔴 Labour lead by 6
    🟡 Highest Lib Dem share in six months
    🔵 Two-thirds not confident in government

    Lab 38% (-1)
    Con 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 14% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,630 questioned Wed & Thu. Changes with 15 - 16 June.

    Details - technetracker.co.uk

    Hang on though, according to last night's Devon result, the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election.

    Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture, let alone the next GE result? I know political obsessives have nothing else to talk about in this country until about three months before the next GE, unlike America were there is always an election due, and this is after all a betting site, but the idea that these by-elections say anything meaningful about 2024 is for the birds.
    "...the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election. Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture..."

    Spectacular binarism there!
    The position is that the Conservatives are extremely unpopular, but none of the Opposition parties have distinctive profiles to drive anti-Tory voters solely into their camp. Consequently, people are simply voting tactically. It's a curious fact that this actually works better than if one of the parties had either a charismatic leader or a transfer-repellent leader - LibDem voters in Wakefield and Labour voters in T&H are simply shrugging and saying "Why not?"
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,497
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly not great results for the Tories last night with the loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. However the Tory voteshare in Tiverton and Honiton was at least higher than they got in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire.

    After the resignation of the former Remainer Oliver Dowden from the Cabinet this morning, to survive Johnson needs to do 2 things. Firstly, he has to rally the ERG and Leavers behind him again. Second, he has to avoid the 10% + leads that were seen in polls like that for Comres last night. If that becomes a trend he would be gone by Christmas

    Post of the day.

    Love it.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,174

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Why not just get a Volvo PHEV?
    1. Weight

    2. Uyghur and Tibetan genocides
    people forget Volvo is now a Chinese company...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 40,952
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Surely the onus is on the winners, those who campaigned for it, to make Brexit a success. That is the way these things usually work. You can't expect those that believed (and still believe) that Brexit was a big mistake to pull your chestnuts out of the fire.

    So if I interpret you and @Boulay correctly, if Brexit turns out to be an economic failure its going to be because the people who believed it was going to be a failure didn't work hard enough to make a success!

    You see? This is why Brexit is more like a religious question than a political/economic question

    You're like a weirdly-alive Thomas More in about 1548 saying "So if the Reformation is a failure you want us ex-cardinals to come back and fix it for you? How about No? It was always bound to be a failure, it is evil, and wrong"

    We are mid-Reformation. The Catholics are not reconciled. We need a Queen Elizabeth to ascend the throne, burn a few recusants - pour encourager les autres - and then tell the rest of England to move on, without making windows into men's souls
    Hear me out on this but I actually think Brexit is like giving birth...
    Definitely not the most tasteful of analogies, given that consent for the conception was 52/48 .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,294
    edited June 24
    Selebian said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    Yep. Bugger rejoin, for the short-medium term, at least.

    The trouble is that, as a former remainer, my way of making Brexit work would be to make it less Brexity. EEA or similar (that's also what I think the government should have pursued, perhaps with a confirmatory referendum with that and harder options, but withut rejoin).

    To run with your analogy, your Minibank has not only left Moneybank but has decided to stop working with VISA, Mastercard, SWIFT etc because those are things are seen as tainted by Moneybank's involvement. I'd rejoin those things that make trading easier, while accepting that Moneybank and Minibank are now separate.
    I'd say that EFTA is more likely than EEA, ie Swiss solution with our existing FTA with certain modifications to make it practical.

    It's going to be interesting to see how things in Brussels change now that Macron has been cut down to size, and will need to spend his time in the domestic political dance. Presumably the Napoleonic aspirations are going to fade a little.

    Now that Johnson is more or less crippled, EuCo may decide to wait for the next one, though.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,811

    Morning!
    So Tiverton wasnt close. Ouch for PM.
    Wakefield goodish for Labour but only enough for Starmer to be minority PM i think. Tories will be relieved in a sense to grub together 30% especially given the circumstances of the vacancy. Those stay at homes arent likely to be rushing to vote Labour next time out and Wakefield reverts to a Labour held marginal i think..........

    Plus Rishi, cabinet and Durham watch fun all day

    Yep, your comments yesterday (and mine) look more Independent SAGE than sage :wink:

    Glad I stayed out of Tiverton. Was sorely tempted when Con went out to 5.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,937
    edited June 24
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    This is actually a fair point. A lot of people thought Boris really wanted no deal but he didn't and shot their fox when he came back with one.

    He didn't though.

    As noted previously, the problem with May's deal is that she tried to make it work in reality.

    BoZo had no such restriction. He invented a fantasy that was never intended to actually work.

    And it doesn't work.

    And now he wants to change it for something else that won't work in a different way.
    That is not a counterpoint at all. He didnt care about how well it would work and wants to change it, but he did want one of some kind.

    Many many people insisted we would exit with no deal, and that that was his plan all along.

    That was unequivocally incorrect.

    Even if it all breaks down now it would still make those who claimed he wanted us to exit with no deal in 2019 wrong.

    The facts show he was at best deeply naive about the deal and more likely duplicitous about how he would try to follow it, but he did not want to go into a GE with no deal as the primary option. He could have but chose otherwise.

    And since we did get a deal, then even though he essentially admits it was a fantasy, it's still not the hardest of Brexit as claimed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,619
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
    Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?

    I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.

    It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
    That’s good to hear.
    Just occasionally pb really does help people.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    Give Leon some credit - unlike most of us, he is capable of keeping several obsessive paranoias going at the same time!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,363
    edited June 24
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
    Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?

    I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.

    It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
    I am afraid it hasn't gone away, indeed quite a significant uptick in the UK in recent weeks. The number of covid positive patients has doubled in my Trust over the last fortnight. Only about 20% have it as the primary diagnosis, but for much of the remainder it is a significant co-morbidity extending their stay and worsening their prognosis.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,533
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    It is difficult to be "reconciled" with something that was pointless and clear self-harm that was presented to the British people as a one way street with no option to reconsider, and was almost certainly helped in the propaganda war by a hostile power.

    Nonetheless many of us accept we have to live with it however pointless and braindead it was as a decision.

    There would be more likelihood in moving on from the divisiveness if folk like you stopped paradoxically moaning about "remoaners" and actually took some responsibility for the fact that via the stupidity of Brexit you have given us the worst PM in UK history, and for those of us that used to be Tories, you have wrecked the reputation of the Conservative Party, and probably will put it out of office for a generation.
    I am but a humble flint knapper. WTF can I do? Carve a new dildo celebrating the EEA?

    And let's not exonerate the 2nd voters. One of the reasons we ended up with a rather rushed Brexit is because so many people actually wanted to annul the vote, without even enacting it - thereby cancelling British democracy - so the Brexiteers got the willies and pushed through whatever they could

    Send an angry letter to the Leader of the Opposition, the biggest Second Voter of them all
    I don’t think anyone who spends any time on here would accuse you of exonerating anyone who wanted a second vote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,473
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    Er, what?

    All of PB is talking about Brexit this morning. It is a massive issue in our political life, albeit somewhat submersed. Like a huge shoal of rocks, waiting to sink the next political ship. The. Main Cages off Falmouth Harbour


    You'd perhaps have a point if I was some lone crank mentioning Brexit time and again, as everyone else talked about inflation, or lacrosse, or the weather in Ecuador, but they are, in fact, talking about Brexit. And so are the newspapers, and politicians, and so on

    And thus you are wrong

    I will agree on one point. Brexit has clearly failed in a certain respect: as it was, in part, a means for us to stop talking about the EU and Brexit. Oops
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,497
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    I’m in the same boat with the Volvo: the leasing company want it back, but I feel disinclined at the moment. I’ll hand it back when I can make up my mind what to replace it with. And unlike you, I’ve actually kept it in reasonably good nick, although some bastard scraped it in the supermarket car park last week.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,896
    dixiedean said:

    PM wants to talk about the by-election in Hartlepool.

    The giant inflatable Bozo is looking rather flaccid this morning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981
    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevant

    We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view
    The idea people dont 'get it' if they live overseas is arrant nonsense.

    People might think sandpit or roger or whoever is wrong and be correct but it won't be because of distance. Sometimes distance can even help.
    True, but equally often, it doesn't. Expats often seem to be stuck in a timewarp, immersed in the issues that were current from the time before they left.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    🧵 In the light of his resignation let’s remember all the good work that Oliver Dowden has done for the country…(1/1)

    https://twitter.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1540223876008919043
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,616
    Surely one of the messages from yesterday is that voters don't really see Brexit as an issue any more?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,501
    Boris Johnson now chatting to the Sec General of the @commonwealthsec Patricia Scotland (who he wants to replace as he doesn’t think she is providing effective leadership) and Paul Kegame, President of Rwanda 🇷🇼
    #CHOGM2022 https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1540247816521531395/photo/1
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 69
    JonWC said:

    TimS said:

    The two by-election swings need to be reckoned against the longer term demographic shifts in voting patterns.

    I don’t think Wakefield means the red wall drift towards conservatism has halted. The realignment in the last decade is real and will surely continue. Against that the Labour win is pretty solid, against a declining trend. A bit like when Labour won Basildon in 1997 against the long term blue tide in the Thames estuary. The North and Midlands will continue to drift rightwards. So Wakefield is a good victory against the run of play.

    Meanwhile the actual blue wall, remain inclined seats in the prosperous South East, will continue to move inexorably towards the Lib Dems. And Labour will continue to take over the big metropolitan areas and trendier coastal towns. But neither were tested this week.

    T&H is neither blue nor red wall and this one feels more interesting because the rural SW is demographically and culturally quite stable. Devon was always a battleground between conservative and liberal; it seemed the Tories had won the argument there from 2015 onwards, but that trend appears to have reversed. That’s not a demographic realignment but true swing voters (and the return of tactical voting).

    I'd be pretty confident that both Tiverton and Honiton will return Tories at the next election.. unless Boris is still leader (in which case I doubt Uxbridge will).
    The government has a major problem in rural seats.

    The younger, less well off voters in rural seats were economically pressurised before the recent run up in inflation. They tend to be heavily exposed to fuel inflation because public transport links are inadequate. Not a good combination - and completely unrelated to Boris.

    Another branch on the workers Vs pensioners economic argument that is slowly becoming visible.

    Which is particularly unfavourable as retiring pensioners are (perhaps unfairly) blamed for lifting property prices beyond the reach of local young people.

    The replacement of CAP by a new government scheme has left farmers worse off (it'd be easy to sneerily say, who knew!, but betraying your core vote is qualitatively different to Union bashing). The FTAs are likely to impact wealthier livestock farmers and EU phytosanitary controls are hitting the sector.

    The question is how many seats might fall into play at the next election.

    The government cannot change course on agri trade liberalisation of course. It will be the price of an eventual FTA with the US, without which Brexit remains economically meh.

    Nobody is paying for polling in the Southwest, but I'd expect a big LibDem resurgence there. As long as Brexit remains off the menu.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,874
    Selebian said:

    Morning!
    So Tiverton wasnt close. Ouch for PM.
    Wakefield goodish for Labour but only enough for Starmer to be minority PM i think. Tories will be relieved in a sense to grub together 30% especially given the circumstances of the vacancy. Those stay at homes arent likely to be rushing to vote Labour next time out and Wakefield reverts to a Labour held marginal i think..........

    Plus Rishi, cabinet and Durham watch fun all day

    Yep, your comments yesterday (and mine) look more Independent SAGE than sage :wink:

    Glad I stayed out of Tiverton. Was sorely tempted when Con went out to 5.
    Ha! Yes not my finest hour of postulation. But i also didnt risk any money on any of it either! TBF to me i did say 'mood music suggests its not even close' once polls closed and id stopped obsessing over anecdotal evidence of activity!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,424
    Rentoul saying it is just not good enough from Labour and Oliver Dowden's resignation is more significant than either result.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    The historical solution to 'spanners' from the opposition is to get rid of this democracy nonsense and then also of those with who had temerity to oppose.

    Thankfully we live in a country where we are not obliged to embrace the mistakes of our rulers. If you want to live somewhere where you are compelled to dance in a parade behind a load of tanks, there are still a few options to choose from..
  • There is only one person to blame for the Wakefield result.

    The main reason that Wakefield's swing voters chose Labour was "Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public", followed by "Boris Johnson is not in touch with working-class people".


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1540212171606564864

    We are literally at Jeremy Corbyn levels here.

    Tories really should be more nervous, take this from Labour experience, when your leader is this unpopular the opposition will win with ease
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,937
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevant

    We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view
    The idea people dont 'get it' if they live overseas is arrant nonsense.

    People might think sandpit or roger or whoever is wrong and be correct but it won't be because of distance. Sometimes distance can even help.
    True, but equally often, it doesn't. Expats often seem to be stuck in a timewarp, immersed in the issues that were current from the time before they left.
    I did say sometimes, not always. The point being those overseas as just as likely to have a sense of things as people within. People can really overestimate how much they can assess things because they live somewhere.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 580
    I think remainers/re-joiners realise they made a strategic blunder in not backing May's Deal and then going for a People's Vote. They realise they need to play the long game now, and will seek to gradually exert pressure on Labour in the same way as the ERG, UKIP etc... did on the Conservative Party.
    I think their roadmap to re-joining probably is something like the following:
    -2024: Boris/this version of the Conservative Party is dumped out of office, replaced by a Labour government (possibly with Lib Dem C&S)
    -2028/29: Labour announce in their manifesto leading up to the election that they will seek to re-join the EEA, but would utilise an emergency brake on free movement as specified in the EEA Treaty
    -2035: After a few years back in the single market, re-joiners say we might as well rejoin the EU given how integrated we are now with it economically. They exert pressure on the government for a referendum.
    Of course, for this to work, re-joiners would need Labour to win the next three general elections.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,502

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    What is surprising me about the Test Match is the advertising for Cinch (etc). How on earth are all these secondhand car traders managing to make enough money to advertise in the way they do?
    They’re not making money, they’re burning through VC capital and hoping to get to a stock market listing.

    At some point, the used car market is going to turn rapidly, and anyone holding inventory is going to get their fingers burned.

    People are selling 3-year-old cars for almost the new price at the moment - traditionally they’d be worth around half the new price, maybe 60% for premium brands.
    As you indicate; that way lies madness!
    Not really

    Cinch is / was the final part of the jigsaw where BCA took control of the whole second hand car market

    They now own

    We buy any car - buy direct from the public

    BCA car auctions
    Multiple car refurbishing sites

    Cinch - sell direct to the public

    A lot of dealers have given up trying to buy from BCA as BCA have managed to grab all the profit.

    Now if you are talking about Cazoo - that's a business with a problem...
    That sounds like something the competition authorities should look at. I would never use Cinch anyway because their ads are the most annoying I have ever heard!
    When I bought my last car I went through Auto Trader and did a part exchange, got a great deal and they drove the new car down from Derbyshire and drove my old one back up. Very happy and no nasty private equity wankers to profit out of it, just a good old fashioned honest used car dealer.
    Yes; I've been wondering how all the dealers A13 between Benfleet and Southend are coping! It used to be said that if you wanted a used car and couldn't find it along there, you really couldn't find it anywhere!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,616
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson now chatting to the Sec General of the @commonwealthsec Patricia Scotland (who he wants to replace as he doesn’t think she is providing effective leadership) and Paul Kegame, President of Rwanda 🇷🇼
    #CHOGM2022 https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1540247816521531395/photo/1

    Tbf. He is world beating on "not providing effective leadership."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,552
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson now chatting to the Sec General of the @commonwealthsec Patricia Scotland (who he wants to replace as he doesn’t think she is providing effective leadership) and Paul Kegame, President of Rwanda 🇷🇼
    #CHOGM2022 https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1540247816521531395/photo/1

    Johnson looks like he's just finished honking his ring up after a night on the turps. Very flushed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,208
    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevant

    We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view
    The idea people dont 'get it' if they live overseas is arrant nonsense.

    People might think sandpit or roger or whoever is wrong and be correct but it won't be because of distance. Sometimes distance can even help.
    Not that it is the unadulterated truth but if you have a constant trickle of Today/Nick Ferrari/R5L/James O'Brien/WatO/Tony Livesey/Ian Dale/Ed Stourton/Chris Mason/PM/QT/AQ/AA/etc then you pick up a pretty good sense of the country. Plus you are seeing it everyday on your trip to Tesco/commute/discussion with your leasing/utility/phone company.

    You simply don't get that abroad.

    And although it might be fantastic, PB doesn't quite cut it as a substitute.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,424
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    1h
    Dowden's resignation is a disaster for the Prime Minister. His letter stresses loyalty to the Conservative party, not to Boris Johnson. Dowden has a lot of friends across the Tory party. With Sunak he backed Boris early in 2019 leadership race. Now he is on the backbenches.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,937
    I do like when by election winners talk about how the people of Britain have spoken or whatever.

    I know you're awfully excited to win but the whole point is only the people of your constituency have spoken. And they speak very differently in just the two this morning!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,754
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    Er, what?

    All of PB is talking about Brexit this morning. It is a massive issue in our political life, albeit somewhat submersed. Like a huge shoal of rocks, waiting to sink the next political ship. The. Main Cages off Falmouth Harbour


    You'd perhaps have a point if I was some lone crank mentioning Brexit time and again, as everyone else talked about inflation, or lacrosse, or the weather in Ecuador, but they are, in fact, talking about Brexit. And so are the newspapers, and politicians, and so on

    And thus you are wrong

    I will agree on one point. Brexit has clearly failed in a certain respect: as it was, in part, a means for us to stop talking about the EU and Brexit. Oops
    Er no, plainly not. 45 of the last 50 posts are about something else and the other five are you or someone replying to you.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 18,927
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    Er, what?

    All of PB is talking about Brexit this morning. It is a massive issue in our political life, albeit somewhat submersed. Like a huge shoal of rocks, waiting to sink the next political ship. The. Main Cages off Falmouth Harbour


    You'd perhaps have a point if I was some lone crank mentioning Brexit time and again, as everyone else talked about inflation, or lacrosse, or the weather in Ecuador, but they are, in fact, talking about Brexit. And so are the newspapers, and politicians, and so on

    And thus you are wrong

    I will agree on one point. Brexit has clearly failed in a certain respect: as it was, in part, a means for us to stop talking about the EU and Brexit. Oops
    I sail out of Falmouth so was a bit concerned by my utter ignorance of these shoals

    They turn out to be fictional. Try the Manacles

    I think Brexit chatter is diminishing and increasingly initiated by you or Scott
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,660
    edited June 24

    Speaking in Rwanda after the by-election defeats, Boris Johnson said he would “listen” to the message from voters, but vowed to “keep going” as prime minister.

    He blamed the by-election defeats on the spiralling cost of living and said there was “more to do” to help people cope

    Is this accepting he’s doomed?

    The message from the voters, Boris, is simple: "Fuck off."

    They do not want a liar. So - fuck off.
    There must be something Mr Johnson can do to halt this decline.

    A moretoreum on Parliamentary elections for twenty years might work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,473
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

  • That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

    Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

    Subtract 4% or so for Rod Crosby Swingback, NOM
    I went and had a look at the level of by-election swingback.

    From recollection, his rule was 4% swingback on the 2-party swing in by-elections, with error bars of 2%-6% swingback.

    And the 2010 GE (the first after that rule) didn't fall in that range. If it had, Labour would have ended up largest party.

    He explained it away as unusual down to the Lib Dem surge (I would therefore accept the 2015 GE as unusual as we had 2 parties in Government).

    The 2015 GE had a 7.2 percent swingback (!) from by-elections. Again, outside of the range in the other direction, but if we accept 2010 being special, then 2015 should also be regarded as special.

    The 2017 GE had a 0.8% swingaway from by-elections (that is: the Opposition did better in the GE than the average of by-elections). Had it followed the rule, we'd be looking at a blowout landslide for the Tories in 2017.

    The 2019 GE had a 0.1% swingaway. The GE swing was almost exactly the same as the average BE swing.

    In short, none of the four GEs since the rule was pronounced have come anywhere close to a 4% swingback, there has been no apparent consistency, and all have fallen well outside of the maximum error range.

    (Disclaimer: I've grabbed the figures and done the calcs quickly so may have made an arror that could blow out the results; it's worth checking. I excluded any by-elections where Con and Lab didn't both stand: eg Batley and Spen 2016, Richmond Park, Glasgow North East)
    There is a good article by Professor Will Jennings written on Wednesday.

    https://news.sky.com/story/wakefield-and-tiverton-honiton-by-elections-conservatives-on-the-defensive-in-their-rural-heartlands-and-the-red-wall-12637329

    It includes this graph comparing average government vote decreases in by elections with the vote in subsequent general election. The 2017 and 2019 general elections are on the edge of the scatter with the government doing better.

    This suggests a swing back of around 7% on this measure (not the same as the Rod Crossby swing back).


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,424

    Harry Lambert 🌻
    @harrytlambert
    .
    @Dominic2306
    is in London, making his first public appearance since leaving No 10.

    On Ukraine & nuclear war: "The scale of catastrophe has shifted, from millions dead over years in Europe to billions dead across the world because of decisions made potentially in minutes…" 1/x


    Harry Lambert 🌻
    @harrytlambert
    ·
    13h
    …"And you don’t need to know the secret details to know how bad it is. What you find when you dig in with the deep state is, everything is even worse on every level. Early warning systems fail, the people in charge of nuclear security are doing coke with hookers…"

    https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1540054717098770436
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    This is the problem with your argument. The vote has been accepted, implemented, and we are living with the consequences. It’s mandate is fulfilled. It has no mandate left. Your frankly sinister blaming of Remainers under the bed for all the ills that befall this country (“…hobbled…” “…problem for U.K. PLC…”) is a distraction exercise. We have honoured the Referendum. It has been respected. Fully.

    But isn’t good enough for you. You want 23/06/2016 worshipped forevermore as the coming of the true religion, a voice from Mount Sinai that can never be gainsaid. In your mind, Remainers insist on worshipping their Golden Calf - so we can never enter the promised land. Pernicious, and frankly a little sinister, nonsense.
    Like diehard communists, Leon will go to the grave believing that if only someone had implemented it properly....

    Except that he won't. Topping nailed it above, and those of us who remember referendum night and the 24 hours after it also remember him playing through the whole psychodrama in superfast time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,053
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    As usual you get a bee in your bonnet about something and think everyone else thinks that. Obviously with all things there will be people who want to reverse an outcome, but most, although they may regret something that has happened, then make the most of it.

    I am a LD remainer and regret leaving, but I don't think the solution is to rejoin. I don't know a single person who does, but according to you there are masses who do that are ruining Brexit for you. It just isn't true. Most of us believe the solution is a lot of agreements with the EU to iron out the all the issues and make Brexit work.

    Most of us have accepted we have left and want to get on with it. I suggest you do the same.

    Can I also suggest you have the same attitude with other subjects. Take 'woke'. Now I have mentioned before I come from the Jeremy Clarkson wing of the LDs. I am not particularly politically correct and I get annoyed with 'jobs worth' and pettiness, etc when I see it. In fact I get quite riled by what you would call 'woke' stuff. But do I see a mass of it from the left. Nope not at all. Just a few pillocks from both the left and right who are bonkers and have had their common sense gene removed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,754

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    I’m in the same boat with the Volvo: the leasing company want it back, but I feel disinclined at the moment. I’ll hand it back when I can make up my mind what to replace it with. And unlike you, I’ve actually kept it in reasonably good nick, although some bastard scraped it in the supermarket car park last week.
    I managed to extend my Passat lease last year for two more years at the same rate but I am going to have to give it back next year.

    In a quandary about what to get next as I need an estate and want to do the occasional trip down to southern Europe and to north Scotland, which puts me off the idea of an EV.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,497
    Jonathan said:

    Curtice: as bad as Major, more than midterm blues and the Tories should be seriously afraid of tactical voting.

    … especially Scottish Tories.

    Wipeout looms. Again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,363
    edited June 24
    dixiedean said:

    Surely one of the messages from yesterday is that voters don't really see Brexit as an issue any more?

    Yes, Brexit is just an issue for political nerds now, as was Brexit until 2010.

    Government omni-incompetence and the looming stagflation are the issues in voters minds at the moment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,616
    Neil Parish on R5L right now. With COVID.
    Good for him. Would be easy to hide away.
    He's talking sense too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,363

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    I’m in the same boat with the Volvo: the leasing company want it back, but I feel disinclined at the moment. I’ll hand it back when I can make up my mind what to replace it with. And unlike you, I’ve actually kept it in reasonably good nick, although some bastard scraped it in the supermarket car park last week.
    I managed to extend my Passat lease last year for two more years at the same rate but I am going to have to give it back next year.

    In a quandary about what to get next as I need an estate and want to do the occasional trip down to southern Europe and to north Scotland, which puts me off the idea of an EV.
    Have a look at the VW ID buzz. It has a good range, and great carrying capacity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,294
    edited June 24

    My take on the By Elections.

    Two centre right men have been replaced by two centre right men

    Go about your business nothing changes.

    Quite right too. Where were the parties representing the working man in Wakefield? Where was Scargill when you needed him?
    Wakefield CLP would have chosen one. The center right NEC overseen by the Centre right leader imposed a shortlist consisting of a centre right man and a right wing woman.

    Despite the Socialist SKS during his leadership promising to allow local members chose rather than a centre right NEC and a miraculously cured now centre right leader imposing aforesaid centre right only shortlist
    Scargill was suing what was left of the NUM to pay the rent on his Barbican flat (Shakespeare Tower) for life. Payments to which he was not entitled.

    Then he was trying to buy it under Right to Buy.

    Interesting that the Times reported he had done so and made a million, but I don't think that is true:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scargill-makes-1m-on-cut-price-council-flat-82qv555fb

    There was a fun little spatette in Parliament last week, with my MP :Lee Anderson pointing out that Corbyn sidekick Ian Lavery had looted £165k from what was left of the NUM. (Took a 75k loan to buy a house, then took a decision with NUM cronies to write it all off, plus £90k questionable redundancy payment).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwnuVlgfzoY&t=78s
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,616
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surely one of the messages from yesterday is that voters don't really see Brexit as an issue any more?

    Yes, Brexit is just an issue for political nerds now, as was Brexit until 2010.

    Government omni-incompetence and the looming stagflation are the issues in voters minds at the moment.
    And the character of the PM. They are the only 2 issues which really matter.
    Will caveat my remark though.
    Brexit is existentially important for Leaver Tories looking for a reason to continue voting the way they would anyways.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,986
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    A better government really could have done more with the opportunities Brexit offers. Understandably the pandemic rather swamped matters at the time, but the government is now too preoccupied with its own failings to do much else.

    It applies to many other areas too. When Boris goes, as surely he must, I hope we get at least some semblance of what a Tory government with a big majority ought to be delivering.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,208
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    As I said, a remainer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,834
    First video of Ukraine using HIMARS in conflict. I guess we wait to see if any drone footage of the aftermath in daylight is released.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1540247955046912001?s=20&t=JZ38PxSbXVN9DyxphoRptw
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,294
    edited June 24

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    I’m in the same boat with the Volvo: the leasing company want it back, but I feel disinclined at the moment. I’ll hand it back when I can make up my mind what to replace it with. And unlike you, I’ve actually kept it in reasonably good nick, although some bastard scraped it in the supermarket car park last week.
    I managed to extend my Passat lease last year for two more years at the same rate but I am going to have to give it back next year.

    In a quandary about what to get next as I need an estate and want to do the occasional trip down to southern Europe and to north Scotland, which puts me off the idea of an EV.
    I would recommend a Skoda Superb estate if you want something a little less expensive on the same drivetrain with more space. I love mine.

    Or why not just keep the Passat?

    I think EVs still clobber you at prices above £40k, don't they?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,423

    I think remainers/re-joiners realise they made a strategic blunder in not backing May's Deal and then going for a People's Vote. They realise they need to play the long game now, and will seek to gradually exert pressure on Labour in the same way as the ERG, UKIP etc... did on the Conservative Party.
    I think their roadmap to re-joining probably is something like the following:
    -2024: Boris/this version of the Conservative Party is dumped out of office, replaced by a Labour government (possibly with Lib Dem C&S)
    -2028/29: Labour announce in their manifesto leading up to the election that they will seek to re-join the EEA, but would utilise an emergency brake on free movement as specified in the EEA Treaty
    -2035: After a few years back in the single market, re-joiners say we might as well rejoin the EU given how integrated we are now with it economically. They exert pressure on the government for a referendum.
    Of course, for this to work, re-joiners would need Labour to win the next three general elections.

    Who did Tories defect to in 2019, abandoning TMay? The diehard CHUKs? Er, no it was The Brexit Party under N Farage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 40,952
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    You seem to have forgotten all those posts about 'diamond hard Brexit"...
  • Were Tories fighting the last election?
    One Tory campaigner in Wakefield tells me the campaign was v hard on Brexit - leaflets about Labour candidate being a Remainer, Labour wanting to rejoin single market etc & “the result shows no-one cares… people have moved on”

    Does HYUFD want to comment on this latest strategic blunder?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,053

    Speaking in Rwanda after the by-election defeats, Boris Johnson said he would “listen” to the message from voters, but vowed to “keep going” as prime minister.

    He blamed the by-election defeats on the spiralling cost of living and said there was “more to do” to help people cope

    Is this accepting he’s doomed?

    The message from the voters, Boris, is simple: "Fuck off."

    They do not want a liar. So - fuck off.
    At what point will @HYUFD get the point that just because you were a winner once it doesn't make you a winner forever (I know he will quote an opinion poll to me, that will be meaningless because he will not be comparing like with like on who will make the best PM).

    The Tories have been in power for a long time so changing the leader is not a forgone conclusion to winning again, but surely he must realise by now that Boris is a drag on the Tory vote. Most Tories seem to have realised it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,418
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    You are no-doubt happy for us to continue to be a country that without reform and by any objective measure, is significantly less democratic than most of the other countries of the EU. The EU being "anti-democratic" is simply Daily Express small brain nonsense.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,619
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
    The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.

    Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.

    So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.

    So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
    Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that

    This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all

    Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
    You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.

    If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.

    Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?

    I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
    That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
    Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?

    I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.

    It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
    I am afraid it hasn't gone away, indeed quite a significant uptick in the UK in recent weeks. The number of covid positive patients has doubled in my Trust over the last fortnight. Only about 20% have it as the primary diagnosis, but for much of the remainder it is a significant co-morbidity extending their stay and worsening their prognosis.
    Absolutely Covid has not gone away, but that 20% figure is shocking. Most people way from the front line are back to normal. The next year is tricky. My hope is that while we seem likely to get repeated variant waves (such as now) the severity/impact will be less each time. Your 20% figure is part of this. A year ago incidental admissions were minimal, now they dominate.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,497
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    It’s the Ioniq I want to buy to replace the XC60, but the wife hates the looks. Can’t stand Teslas: they are a bloody plague around here. Boring as hell, which is of course why Swedes adore them.

    Yes, EVS are dear to buy, but cheap to run, *IF* you have your own off-road parking and install a charger at home.
    Given the electricity prices in UK it will soon be dearer to charge an EV than to fill a diesel.
    Personally I am going for a Range Rover Velar this time but will be nice and settle for a 2L to do my bit.
    You’re a thoughtful soul 😄 Thank you!

    Yeah, I know what you mean. I would buy the Evoque, but the people who drive them are even bigger wankers than Tesla drivers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,754
    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
    But depreciation is also zero on ICE cars at the moment. We’ve also got an old 2014 Mini, and I could easily sell it for the same amount I bought it for a few years ago. I’ve got friends who have actually made a profit on buying then selling second-hand cars. Unheard of until recently (excluding certain rarities).
    Used car market is mad at the moment, and has been for a couple of years. Supply problems with new cars, huge lead times on anything.
    BMW Finance call me at least once a month and try to terminate the lease of Mrs DA's i4. Presumably even after making us good they can re-lease it and still make bank. I am quite tempted as I have recently been beating the absolute balls out of it and I'm pretty sure the rear suspension bushes are shot. The best I've done with Dragy is 3.5s 0-60 and that's with a 1.6s 60 foot.
    I’m in the same boat with the Volvo: the leasing company want it back, but I feel disinclined at the moment. I’ll hand it back when I can make up my mind what to replace it with. And unlike you, I’ve actually kept it in reasonably good nick, although some bastard scraped it in the supermarket car park last week.
    I managed to extend my Passat lease last year for two more years at the same rate but I am going to have to give it back next year.

    In a quandary about what to get next as I need an estate and want to do the occasional trip down to southern Europe and to north Scotland, which puts me off the idea of an EV.
    I would recommend a Skoda Superb estate if you want something a little less expensive on the same drivetrain with more space. I love mine.

    Or why not just keep the Passat?

    I think EVs still clobber you at prices above £40k, don't they?
    Yeah, I could buy the Passat I guess - I have been leasing for so long, I had forgotten that option!

    Previous car was a Superb and yes, they are very good.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,473
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    You seem to have forgotten all those posts about 'diamond hard Brexit"...
    I refer the Honourable PB-er for Over-Remembering to @LadyG
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,418
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.

    Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way

    Brace

    I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.

    The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.

    We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.

    We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.

    What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.

    Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.

    We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.




    The slight problem with the "tightening belts" argument is that as with taxes, most people think that the belt tightening is a good thing provided it is done by people who are not them
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,533
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    boulay said:

    If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.

    Brexit is a shitshow.

    Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.

    An intrinsically shit idea, executed by idiots.

    Ultimately even @Leon will figure it out.
    @Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.

    But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.

    It won't.
    lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite

    My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity

    I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)

    But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU

    A bit revisionist to say the least. Any suggestion that a new Govt would rejoin the SM you take as the thin end of the Rejoin wedge. Your attitudes on here, and those of your various other noms de plume, have never been in favour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981
    Finkelstein: "But in the end the right way to look at them is the simplest way. They seem like a disaster for the Tories, because they are."

    "The gravity of Dowden’s decision may not be grasped by people only knowing him as a frontline figure. His real importance is behind the scenes. "

    "In any election two things above all determine the general swing — leadership approval and views of the economy. And the by-elections did nothing more — but, it is vital to understand, also nothing less — than indicate that these are running strongly against the government."

    "What would you say if you were the Conservative spokesman asked to explain today’s by-election results? You’d try: “Governing parties lose by-elections all the time, before going on to win the following general election”. It’s an obvious answer, and it’s right as far as it goes. But governing parties also lose by-elections before going on to lose the following general election."
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,208
    What’s the incentive for cabinet members to stick with Johnson?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,673
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,981

    What’s the incentive for cabinet members to stick with Johnson?

    Sadly, for too many of them, that any half-decent leader would never have trusted them with such misplaced responsibility in the first place?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,533

    What’s the incentive for cabinet members to stick with Johnson?

    Staying in the Cabinet until the next election. They know they’re tarred with him.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,418
    kjh said:

    Speaking in Rwanda after the by-election defeats, Boris Johnson said he would “listen” to the message from voters, but vowed to “keep going” as prime minister.

    He blamed the by-election defeats on the spiralling cost of living and said there was “more to do” to help people cope

    Is this accepting he’s doomed?

    The message from the voters, Boris, is simple: "Fuck off."

    They do not want a liar. So - fuck off.
    At what point will @HYUFD get the point that just because you were a winner once it doesn't make you a winner forever (I know he will quote an opinion poll to me, that will be meaningless because he will not be comparing like with like on who will make the best PM).

    The Tories have been in power for a long time so changing the leader is not a forgone conclusion to winning again, but surely he must realise by now that Boris is a drag on the Tory vote. Most Tories seem to have realised it.
    He is still placing bets on Red Rum, I imagine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,473
    IanB2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5
    years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
    I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.

    Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.

    If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.

    Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.

    For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.

    You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.

    After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.

    If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.

    Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.

    So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.

    So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.

    You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin

    Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason



    Of course that must be the case.

    For the argument that it was a foolish idea advanced by foolish people for foolish reasons is far too straightforward to be true.

    Sigh


    I am not arguing about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. I am agreeing with @boulay that there is a considerable rump of eructating Remainers who are not and will not ever be reconciled to it, and who want it undone ASAP, even if they pretend to themselves, or others, that they are accepting of the vote

    eg, You

    I suggest this is a problem for UK PLC *going forward*
    This is the problem with your argument. The vote has been accepted, implemented, and we are living with the consequences. It’s mandate is fulfilled. It has no mandate left. Your frankly sinister blaming of Remainers under the bed for all the ills that befall this country (“…hobbled…” “…problem for U.K. PLC…”) is a distraction exercise. We have honoured the Referendum. It has been respected. Fully.

    But isn’t good enough for you. You want 23/06/2016 worshipped forevermore as the coming of the true religion, a voice from Mount Sinai that can never be gainsaid. In your mind, Remainers insist on worshipping their Golden Calf - so we can never enter the promised land. Pernicious, and frankly a little sinister, nonsense.
    Like diehard communists, Leon will go to the grave believing that if only someone had implemented it properly....

    Except that he won't. Topping nailed it above, and those of us who remember referendum night and the 24 hours after it also remember him playing through the whole psychodrama in superfast time.
    I wonder what you would do if you didn't have me to psychoanalyse

    Wank about something else, perhaps
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,076
    Mr. Foremain, I'm at risk of needing to tighten my belt.

    Back down to 8st 7lbs. Thank goodness the government still wants to bring in a sugar tax.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
    You have a window into the future do you?

    I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
    I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
    Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...

    Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
    If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
    Why?

    It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.

    Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
    Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
    But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)

    Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time

    So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance

    But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
    Insofar as there is an argument in there, it collapses at the point when you remember that Norway and Switzerland are effectively inside the Single Market.
    The other flaw is that if the tide changes, and we are reconverging, albeit on relatively small pragmatic issues, then the gap to Rejoining SM or EU proper is getting smaller with time, not greater.
    Your argument fails, at least as far as EU membership is concerned, because it assumes the EU is a static thing with which we converge. In the fact the EU is itself changing, moving away from us and becoming less and less appealing to people in the process.
    I wonder (maybe even hope) if that as time goes on that the EU will become more appealing to more people. It will be interesting to see if the age cohorts that voted largely for Remain retain a desire to be in the EU as they age, even as the EU changes and becomes more integrated. Perhaps a majority will look across the Channel and think 'Wish we were still a part of that'. As the oldies who enthusiastically backed Brexit shuffle off their mortal coils, will there emerge a clear majority who want back in?

    And young people, kids now and those not yet born, how will they feel about it as they become adults? Will they care about keeping sterling? About imperial measures? Will they be more comfortable with globalisation, less attached to the concept of a sovereign nation? Will they, too, look at the EU and want in? Maybe, maybe not.

    It's going to be discussed for decades. So much depends on how we, and the EU, perform economically.
This discussion has been closed.