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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683

    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.

    Nah. There’s half a dozen names in the top 20 on the Next Con Leader market who would be better than Johnson. However, knowing the dire culture within the party, it is pretty much guaranteed that they’ll pick one of the 14 absolute duffers.
    That is the point. Only a right wing English nationalist culture warrior would get past the membership.

    Shhh! That’s what I’m banking on 😉
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,209
    Boris, a little earlier this week.
    … the prime minister was asked on Wednesday if he would take responsibility and resign if they lost both.

    He replied: “Come on, it was only a year ago that we won the Hartlepool byelection, which everybody thought was – you know, we hadn’t won Hartlepool for – I can’t remember when the Tory party last won Hartlepool – a long time. I don’t think it ever had.

    “Governing parties generally do not win byelections, particularly not in midterm. You know, I’m very hopeful, but you know, there you go.”

    Asked to confirm he was not considering his future, he replied: “Are you crazy?”…
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 189
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.

    I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.
    Not on this occasion. JJ may complain about it but it's true. If you're not in this country you won't get the visceral anger and hurt that there is.

    And to JJ: as per my Exeter comments yesterday, I know Tiverton & Honiton really really well.

    Red wall? I haven't much of a clue although I did bet correctly on the Brexit result and won a lot. Could see that one coming because I worked in a desolate disenfranchised seat.

    You do need to be of the people to get the people ...
    Knowing T&H, what's your thoughts on Lib Dems retaining the seats at the next general election? My tuppence is that the East Devon Independents will mostly follow Paul Arnott into the Lib Dems and can see Lib Dems holding Honiton (and having a chance of gaining Exmouth) Meanwhile the more farming Tiverton and Minehead will revert back to be a reasonable Tory win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913
    Tories contemplating what to do next should flip the Boris argument on its head

    ie they should ask themselves why they are doing SO badly against two complete duds like Sir Beer Korma and Ed Thingy

    Seen from that perspective the solution is bloody obvious
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153
    edited June 24
    I imagine Grant Shapps is in bed with his pillow over his head, ignoring the sixteenth call from CCHQ to get his arse onto the broadcast round.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,243
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%

    My prediction was 47% to 39%. I had Labour a bit too high on 6%. Should have realised a lost deposit was the most likely outcome.
    You forecast was excellent.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,705
    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,417
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    Yes, the tactic should not be "I told you so". Despite that being accurate, it is never a good way to persuade. Better to simply whittle away at it by pointing out the adverse impact of the government's policy over a variety of issues.

    This made me smile yesterday from Harry Cole on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1539913813725700100?t=tVMmRfZmu3ds6iYGoePyMQ&s=19

    Honestly the Lib Dems need to stop talking about Brexit in their campaign literature entirely. It’s yesterday’s war. Trying to keep it today’s war is in no one’s interests but Boris Johnson. That is, if they want to make real progress. Not just picking up 20-30 seats to trying to edge out the SNP as third party by a few seats.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,642
    Boris Johnson speaks to journalists in Kigali. https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1540209231235784704/photo/1
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839
    Jon Craig of Sky saying Oliver Dowden resignation is a bombshell letter and he has received support from conservative mps

    He says as a senior cabinet ministers quits while the PM is abroad, he is waiting to see if a coup is about to happen while Johnson is away
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452
    OnboardG1 said:

    I imagine Grant Shapps is in bed with his pillow over his head, ignoring the sixteenth call from CCHQ to get his arse onto the broadcast round.

    This is perhaps a bit much even for the brass neck of Shapps, who should perhaps be better off concentrating on resolving the rail dispute.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%

    My prediction was 47% to 39%. I had Labour a bit too high on 6%. Should have realised a lost deposit was the most likely outcome.
    You forecast was excellent.

    When I look for reliable forecasts on PB I have a few go-to guys

    @Andy_JS is definitely one
    @dyedwoolie is another

    And sometimes even

    @HYUFD
  • MJWMJW Posts: 740

    MJW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.

    A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
    Good summary.

    On current polling, “a few” inroads is all Starmer and Sarwar are going to manage in Scotland, if that.

    The last full-sample Scottish poll had Labour on just 22%, and although the latest YouGov sub-sample had them on 29%, that would only gain them a handful of SNP seats.

    Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    Voting intention - Scotland
    Reverse chronological order
    (+/- change from last UK GE)

    SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
    SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
    SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
    SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
    Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
    Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
    oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)

    Yes parties 52% (+5)
    No parties 49% (-4)

    We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
    We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?
    Yes. I don't remotely think Labour is close to reversing its 2015 collapse in Scotland - but there are green shoots, in part as SNP scandals are becoming regular enough that they can't just be explained away, that maybe take the sting out of their appeal to left-leaning voters - it gives Labour a message to voters who have shunned it - but also due to the mess the Tories and Douglas Ross have got themselves into with hokey cokeying on Johnson. Sarwar is also just a reasonably competent politician rather than a non-entity or a disliked product of the Labour Scots rejected 2008-2015.

    Does that mean the political weather has changed there? No. But some gains from a very low base could be the difference between a majority - if one's optimistic about results in England - or a possible coalition with the Lib Dems that can avoid the dreaded questions over having to do deals with the SNP.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153
    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452
    edited June 24
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson speaks to journalists in Kigali. https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1540209231235784704/photo/1

    I fight on, I fight to win!
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,222

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Not a chance!!!

    It does send a shot to plotters.... (the grandees in particular) to look for leaders - I anticipate T Tugendhat or Tobias Ellwood to come on air at some point.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,642
    Interesting

    Thread on what happened in Tiverton- Lib Dems had 400-odd activists here yesterday, leafleted almost every home & spoke to 20,000 people. They said 3 issues dominated: 1- Tiverton High school 2- Dentistry- fury at not being able to get NHS dentists and 3- partygate. 1/

    On the high school- @JackAbbey97 and I went there. The building is in terrible condition- & new build promised since 2009. A lead campaigner for it said there was impression that safe Tory seats in SW were being neglected by Govt in favour of funding for the north & midlands 2/
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1540205243874549760


  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913
    FFS Tories. Do not stay the blade
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    It’s a new dawn is it not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    Yes, the tactic should not be "I told you so". Despite that being accurate, it is never a good way to persuade. Better to simply whittle away at it by pointing out the adverse impact of the government's policy over a variety of issues.

    This made me smile yesterday from Harry Cole on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1539913813725700100?t=tVMmRfZmu3ds6iYGoePyMQ&s=19

    Honestly the Lib Dems need to stop talking about Brexit in their campaign literature entirely. It’s yesterday’s war. Trying to keep it today’s war is in no one’s interests but Boris Johnson. That is, if they want to make real progress. Not just picking up 20-30 seats to trying to edge out the SNP as third party by a few seats.
    Already done. Pointing out the adverse effects on agriculture and regional development without mentioning the B word itself was part of the grid for T and H.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Labour’s win in Wakefield, where Simon Lightwood took almost 48% of the vote, is a significant boost to Keir Starmer, even if some of his more entrenched critics will inevitably grumble that the margin of victory could have been even higher.

    There are unlikely to be any such gripes for Ed Davey. On election day in Tiverton and Honiton, Lib Dem activists were no more than cautiously hopeful about overturning a 24,000-plus Conservative majority in a seat which, in it various incarnations, has been completely Tory for about 130 years.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/24/byelection-defeats-cast-pall-over-boris-johnsons-pitch-that-he-is-an-election-winner
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    Yes, the tactic should not be "I told you so". Despite that being accurate, it is never a good way to persuade. Better to simply whittle away at it by pointing out the adverse impact of the government's policy over a variety of issues.

    This made me smile yesterday from Harry Cole on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1539913813725700100?t=tVMmRfZmu3ds6iYGoePyMQ&s=19

    Agreed. That succinct Harry Cole message is a classic of the type. It really makes a very powerful point. Brexit has really thrashed small- and medium-sized enterprises and the self-employed. Boris wasn’t kidding when he said “Fuck business!”
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153
    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,168
    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    I think that is the line that Tim Farron has been pushing for some time now. He is now the Lib Dem agriculture spokesman, and he is doing it very well.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,597
    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,019
    edited June 24
    Yes, let's not forget Dowden's complicity in the irresistible rise of the unflushable FLSOJ.



    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1540211061911162880?s=20&t=I6UgeKoVjC-gqEnH2FcrOw
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    Another stunning success for Lynton Crosby.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    I've gone on record very recently saying that Starmer is trying too hard too often not to offend anybody, with the result that he comes across as timid and vacuous, but let's not write off the Labour policy agenda until we actually get to an election and see what's in their manifesto. They're bound not to give too many specifics before that, because of the eternal problem of the Government running them past focus groups, stealing the popular stuff and demonising them for the remainder. So I think it's far too soon to be labelling Labour as "clueless."
    My point was bigger than that. No one in the West has a clue what to do, as the storm clouds roil and gather. Maybe no one in the world

    This is one crucial way 2024 is totally different to 1997. Then, Blair inherited a healthy economy and a world at peace, and he had the luxury of options. He largely but not entirely squandered them

    Starmer, if he becomes PM, will have no choices. Just a parade of crises
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094
    edited June 24
    A crushing defeat for the Tories, but turnout was 40% and 52%, suggesting many Tories sat on their hands. Mrs Hubbard needs to find an acceptable bone, not the same old BoJo. The magic, such as it was, has gone for good. A sensible party could win the next election.

    Starmer dull and unlikely to invigorate, LDs gaining by not being too prominent. The Green gilt fading by demanding people give up lifestyle without having effective alternative yet.

    Softly, softly, catchee monkey. Starmer's opportunity?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,894
    As an anti-Tory I would love Boris Johnson to stay on. But the country has to come first. That’s why he must go. I don’t think he will, though. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
    Listening to Sky this morning the general concensus is Dowden's resignation is very serious for Johnson, not just because his resignation letter refers to partygate and fails to support Johnson, but it is now clear that cabinet ministers have a decision to make as to whether they are going to support Johnson against the likeable and honest Dowden

    Dowden is a breath of fresh air and hopefully his action is the key to other abandoning Johnson and removing him from office

    Apparently Dowden's resignation was typed but with todays date penned on it, raising the question as to when Dowden had decided to pen the letter
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 72
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    I've gone on record very recently saying that Starmer is trying too hard too often not to offend anybody, with the result that he comes across as timid and vacuous, but let's not write off the Labour policy agenda until we actually get to an election and see what's in their manifesto. They're bound not to give too many specifics before that, because of the eternal problem of the Government running them past focus groups, stealing the popular stuff and demonising them for the remainder. So I think it's far too soon to be labelling Labour as "clueless."
    Actually - it makes complete sense for Starmer to act as an ill-defined hopeful alternative for the many people who are becoming disenchanted with the government.

    Why allow the government to box him in before the election?

    More importantly, we can expect the Conservatives to go negative on Starmer and Labour before the election.

    With the usual press blitz, and attempts to turn Starmer's core strengths Vs Johnson (probity, competence and an eye for detail) into weaknesses.

    Hypocrisy, and a North London out of touch Human Rights lawyer.

    The goal will be to discredit him so thoroughly people won't listen to him during the campaign.

    Starmer knows what is coming - it's been the same tune since Cameron - and is not going to make their job easier.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,504
    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Yes and no.

    Boris needs to visibly go, and it needs to be visibly painful for Boris. No change, no chance and all that.

    Unfortunately...

    Boris also needs to stick around. The Conservatives are going to need another sacrificial victim for the incoming everyone-feeling-poor. The new Conservatives leader needs to take over in autumn 2023ish, when green shoots will (please, God's of the British economy) be there but invisible. Then go to the country sometime in 2024.

    But they can't leave BoJo in place that long, or the party really will be a soldering ruin. Overall, it's a brilliant bit of torture.

    More importantly, Johnson has created a party of (mostly) stooges. Lots of people who might be better than him, but aren't very good. And none with that strange, dark, star quality.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,004

    Jon Craig of Sky saying Oliver Dowden resignation is a bombshell letter and he has received support from conservative mps

    He says as a senior cabinet ministers quits while the PM is abroad, he is waiting to see if a coup is about to happen while Johnson is away

    Waiting out in a faraway African country to see if there is a coup in the UK feels all wrong....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Great calls for T&H throughout and who's to say you're wrong about the GE.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153
    pigeon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
    Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.

    It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
    Yeah, bluntly, it requires generational attrition. We joined with the support of the wartime generation who liked the idea of not having to fight Germany again. We left with the support of a generation that preferred more local sovereignty after their parents had slowly passed away. It’s just how these things are sometimes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    David Herdson did pretty well. Good to see.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,767
    edited June 24
    Knowing Boris Johnson’s luck today is the day Sir Keir Starmer gets a FPN and everybody forgets about the results in the by elections.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338
    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Mate. You are a wordsmith. You don't have to explain your metaphors.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.

    A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
    Good summary.

    On current polling, “a few” inroads is all Starmer and Sarwar are going to manage in Scotland, if that.

    The last full-sample Scottish poll had Labour on just 22%, and although the latest YouGov sub-sample had them on 29%, that would only gain them a handful of SNP seats.

    Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    Voting intention - Scotland
    Reverse chronological order
    (+/- change from last UK GE)

    SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
    SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
    SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
    SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
    Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
    Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
    oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)

    Yes parties 52% (+5)
    No parties 49% (-4)

    We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
    We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?
    Yes. I don't remotely think Labour is close to reversing its 2015 collapse in Scotland - but there are green shoots, in part as SNP scandals are becoming regular enough that they can't just be explained away, that maybe take the sting out of their appeal to left-leaning voters - it gives Labour a message to voters who have shunned it - but also due to the mess the Tories and Douglas Ross have got themselves into with hokey cokeying on Johnson. Sarwar is also just a reasonably competent politician rather than a non-entity or a disliked product of the Labour Scots rejected 2008-2015.

    Does that mean the political weather has changed there? No. But some gains from a very low base could be the difference between a majority - if one's optimistic about results in England - or a possible coalition with the Lib Dems that can avoid the dreaded questions over having to do deals with the SNP.
    Labour will do nothing in Scotland till they become a Scottish party and stop being anti independence and against democracy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,243

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,004

    As an anti-Tory I would love Boris Johnson to stay on. But the country has to come first. That’s why he must go. I don’t think he will, though. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

    You wouldn't though. Really you wouldn't.

    You might love the political consequences of the clown limping on, but you are simply managing to block the part of your mind that is trying to imagine the years more of this discredited liar ruling over us
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    OnboardG1 said:

    ClippP said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    I think that is the line that Tim Farron has been pushing for some time now. He is now the Lib Dem agriculture spokesman, and he is doing it very well.
    I know a few farmers in Scotland who are deeply pissed off with the agri-side failures of Brexit. They all hated CAP but they were expecting to get a replacement that helped them, not get sold out to the Aussies and the Americans.
    It’s the farmers and fisherfolk who have been most royally screwed by Brexit. It is quite tragic to witness. The US deal is going to murder them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Great calls for T&H throughout and who's to say you're wrong about the GE.
    Still an absolute pie though and smug bit to boot, not much to like.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,004

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
    Listening to Sky this morning the general concensus is Dowden's resignation is very serious for Johnson, not just because his resignation letter refers to partygate and fails to support Johnson, but it is now clear that cabinet ministers have a decision to make as to whether they are going to support Johnson against the likeable and honest Dowden

    Dowden is a breath of fresh air and hopefully his action is the key to other abandoning Johnson and removing him from office

    Apparently Dowden's resignation was typed but with todays date penned on it, raising the question as to when Dowden had decided to pen the letter
    The question is when one of them appears on the radio and who it will be....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    I've gone on record very recently saying that Starmer is trying too hard too often not to offend anybody, with the result that he comes across as timid and vacuous, but let's not write off the Labour policy agenda until we actually get to an election and see what's in their manifesto. They're bound not to give too many specifics before that, because of the eternal problem of the Government running them past focus groups, stealing the popular stuff and demonising them for the remainder. So I think it's far too soon to be labelling Labour as "clueless."
    My point was bigger than that. No one in the West has a clue what to do, as the storm clouds roil and gather. Maybe no one in the world

    This is one crucial way 2024 is totally different to 1997. Then, Blair inherited a healthy economy and a world at peace, and he had the luxury of options. He largely but not entirely squandered them

    Starmer, if he becomes PM, will have no choices. Just a parade of crises
    I think Starmer is a poor LOTO, but might well be a decent PM.

    I think though the worst of the coming economic crisis will be over by the end of 2023, but not much scope for electoral bribery.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    What if it isn’t just Boris? What if people are sick of Conservative incompetence, the dumpster fire that is the economy and their nasty divide and rule politics,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839

    Knowing Boris Johnson’s luck today is the day Sir Keir Starmer gets a FPN and everybody forgets about the results in the by elections.

    Apparently it is expected by the beginning of July which should be enough time to see Johnson gone if his cabinet backs Dowden against him

    It is noticeable how Sky are centering on Dowden's resignation and almost predicting cabinet resignations
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452

    OnboardG1 said:

    ClippP said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    I think that is the line that Tim Farron has been pushing for some time now. He is now the Lib Dem agriculture spokesman, and he is doing it very well.
    I know a few farmers in Scotland who are deeply pissed off with the agri-side failures of Brexit. They all hated CAP but they were expecting to get a replacement that helped them, not get sold out to the Aussies and the Americans.
    It’s the farmers and fisherfolk who have been most royally screwed by Brexit. It is quite tragic to witness. The US deal is going to murder them.
    It was always going to be so, but voters have agency, so I have limited sympathy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338
    edited June 24
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Great calls for T&H throughout and who's to say you're wrong about the GE.
    Still an absolute pie though and smug bit to boot, not much to like.
    You're wrong on this one Malc. She (I think she's a she) had to endure a torrent of abuse from the scared little pushing from the back of the crowd PB bullies. But stuck to her guns. Good for her.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233
    edited June 24
    That's catastrophic for the Tories. However you cut it, there is absolutely no positive they can take from it. Wakefield is a marginal and has been for a fair time, so losing it is not a big surprise, but it is still a poor result for them. Meanwhile, losing Tiverton and Honiton by such a huge margin on top of losing North Shropshire is absolutely off the Richter scale.

    This government is looking more and more like the dog days of Brown, with this important difference - Brown was an intelligent and experienced figure with a Cabinet that still contained a number of competent personnel. Johnson is a third rate lightweight with limited executive experience and his Cabinet are a collection of crooks, liars, imbeciles and drunks who would be out of their depth at Handforth Parish Council.

    It's unlikely there would be swings of this sort across the country at a general election, for all sorts of reasons. But seeing Labour gain 80 seats and the Liberal Democrats another 30 is entirely realistic. And that would be enough for a Lab/Lib Speech from the Throne to be passed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839
    Jonathan said:

    What if it isn’t just Boris? What if people are sick of Conservative incompetence, the dumpster fire that is the economy and their nasty divide and rule politics,

    The only way that can be tested is the removal of Johnson
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,378
    So the "Conservatives" lost both elections? What excellent news to wake up to :D
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,642
    Boris Johnson has told reporters in Rwanda he will “listen” to voters but will “keep going” after the Tories suffered double by-election defeat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411

    Jonathan said:

    What if it isn’t just Boris? What if people are sick of Conservative incompetence, the dumpster fire that is the economy and their nasty divide and rule politics,

    The only way that can be tested is the removal of Johnson
    Maybe Boris is the best chance the Tories have to limit the damage. His stain is indelible. You’ll keep that if he goes, but you’ll lose his connection to the blukip voters, which gave the Tories their majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233
    edited June 24
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson has told reporters in Rwanda he will “listen” to voters but will “keep going” after the Tories suffered double by-election defeat.

    I hope he does keep going. All the way to Antarctica. And stays there.

    It would be a nice big fridge for him...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,236
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
    Motorway service stations all signed up for exclusive charging provider deals years ago, so it costs as much to fill your car with electrons as it does to fill with petrol. The solution is to look at new sites, either alongside motorways or just off junctions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,642
    That didn’t take long: 1922 committee treasurer Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (on a dodgy phone line) tells @BBCr4today Tories need explanations from Johnson and could move against him again, opening door to rewriting party rules to allow a new confidence vote.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/tory-chief-oliver-dowden-quit-by-election-defeat-pressure-boris-johnson/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson has told reporters in Rwanda he will “listen” to voters but will “keep going” after the Tories suffered double by-election defeat.

    I hope he does keep going. All the way to Antarctica. And stays there.

    It would be a nice big fridge for him...
    Antarctica is far too beautiful and peaceful to have Johnson inflicted on it !!!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,378
    ydoethur said:

    That's catastrophic for the Tories. However you cut it, there is absolutely no positive they can take from it......

    Using the HYFUD approach, surely it is better that they are rid of these two constituencies since they obviously were not True Conservatives? ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson has told reporters in Rwanda he will “listen” to voters but will “keep going” after the Tories suffered double by-election defeat.

    I hope he does keep going. All the way to Antarctica. And stays there.

    It would be a nice big fridge for him...
    Antarctica is far too beautiful and peaceful to have Johnson inflicted on it !!!
    Well, yes, the penguins would suffer a bit, but I'm sure they'll take one for The Greater Good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233

    ydoethur said:

    That's catastrophic for the Tories. However you cut it, there is absolutely no positive they can take from it......

    Using the HYFUD approach, surely it is better that they are rid of these two constituencies since they obviously were not True Conservatives? ;)
    He's going to up like Gul Dukat on that Klingon ship.

    'I am the last Cardassian Conservative!'
  • pingping Posts: 2,415
    Scott_xP said:

    That didn’t take long: 1922 committee treasurer Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (on a dodgy phone line) tells @BBCr4today Tories need explanations from Johnson and could move against him again, opening door to rewriting party rules to allow a new confidence vote.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/tory-chief-oliver-dowden-quit-by-election-defeat-pressure-boris-johnson/

    Genuine question

    Why does the 1922 committee need a treasurer?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
    The Renault Zoe meets that 200 mile spec, but is a bit basic inside. My 14 year old Fiat is on its last legs so I am in the market for a new motor, alongside our Kia eniro, which I am massively impressed by.

    Driving an EV is simply much nicer than ICE cars, the smoothness and power are quite a revelation with EVs, and charging not quite the issue people imagine. Initially EV drivers have range anxiety, but it disappears in weeks, being not much of an issue in real life.

    I am not quite ready to go fully EV yet, partly because of long delivery times at present, so am going hybrid this time, but it is likely to be my last ever petrol vehicle.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    I wonder what the result would have been if the Conservatives had selected a half decent candidate in T&H. I’ve seen some duds in my time but Helen Hurford was something else entirely.

    But then what good candidate is going to put themselves up for ritual slaughter?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,378
    edited June 24
    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,642
    Dowden quit just before being due to lead morning broadcast round 😬

    Meanwhile Tory candidate Helen Hurford hid in dance studio at sports centre count in Tiverton & Honiton last night - also refusing to face press.

    Priti Patel now stepping in, & will be on @TimesRadio at 08.45
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden quit just before being due to lead morning broadcast round 😬

    Meanwhile Tory candidate Helen Hurford hid in dance studio at sports centre count in Tiverton & Honiton last night - also refusing to face press.

    Priti Patel now stepping in, & will be on @TimesRadio at 08.45

    TimesRadio? That’s like hiding in a fridge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233

    I wonder what the result would have been if the Conservatives had selected a half decent candidate in T&H. I’ve seen some duds in my time but Helen Hurford was something else entirely.

    But then what good candidate is going to put themselves up for ritual slaughter?

    I don't think the candidates made a huge difference here.

    What I would say rather than your last sentence is, what candidate of quality would want to be on record defending Johnson, a convicted criminal and shameless liar who is unfit to be PM?

    It will hang round the necks of such people like the Ancient Mariner's albatross for the rest of their lives.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839
    BBC still waiting for a conservative party spokesperson for 7.30 but it will not be Raab

    Intriguing
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,069
    Well done to Mr Herdson for increasing the Yorkshire Party's vote share in Wakefield.
    This is the main take away from last night's results, right? I'm in Zurich so I may be missing some of the details.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233

    Has anyone seen FUDHY yet?

    Is he advancing tanks on Edinburgh or cowering in the bunker?

    He's still trying to work out the best route to get them to Tiverton. Roadworks are complicating things.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    Me too, but LD policy on this is quite compatible with that objective. Not quite sure on the Green position.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,233

    BBC still waiting for a conservative party spokesperson for 7.30 but it will not be Raab

    Intriguing

    The first good news for the Tories this morning.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?
    I am a patriot, therefore I am an anti-Tory!

    So, if you lived in Buchan you’d be a Scottish patriot. Good to know.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,839

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    You will only have the SNP or Plaid
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,774
    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Cabinet resignations are utterly pointless, because Boris Johnson is shameless. Quite literally. He doesn’t understand the emotion called shame. He has never felt it. Despite perpetrating a mountain of shameful acts during his lifetime.

    What’s that diagnosis called Foxy? A sociopath?
    I wouldn't conclude that. Johnson is both ruthless and self-centered, but I am not convinced that medicalising him with a diagnosis is helpful.

    Does he feel shame? He certainly does not show it if he does, but we do not have windows into souls.

    I suspect that actually he does feel shame, and that a lot of his frenetic behaviour and verbal
    chaff throwing are a way of avoiding facing up to the shameful things that he has done. In his quiet
    moments I think he drowns out that conscience with alcohol, but the voice never quite goes away.
    I’m sure this is closer to the truth than “he’s a sociopath”

    I’ve actually seen him looking shameful. He was virtually in tears during Peak Partygate

    But he got over it quickly. That’s his shtick. He has various coping mechanisms - one of them might be booze - which allow him to throw off the Lilliputian cables of remorse, and on he goes

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    Let’s hope the blue wall crumbles. Would be delightful for democracy if these Tory safe seats fell or at least became competitive.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,726

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?
    I am. Anything to get rid of that fawning lickspittle Duguid.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,152

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    Some of these have ranges around 400 mile, not cheap though.
    https://heycar.co.uk/guides/electric-cars-with-longest-range
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,219
    OnboardG1 said:



    More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.

    Are you mad? Talk like that will have TSE weilding the ban hammer on you.

    I'm still waiting for the DOW on France.... that's what I voted for, wasn't it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,913

    nico679 said:

    I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .

    I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.

    Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .

    I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .

    Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
    This, and versions of it, will be a problem for Labour in 2024
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,550

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
    Listening to Sky this morning the general concensus is Dowden's resignation is very serious for Johnson, not just because his resignation letter refers to partygate and fails to support Johnson, but it is now clear that cabinet ministers have a decision to make as to whether they are going to support Johnson against the likeable and honest Dowden

    Dowden is a breath of fresh air and hopefully his action is the key to other abandoning Johnson and removing him from office

    Apparently Dowden's resignation was typed but with todays date penned on it, raising the question as to when Dowden had decided to pen the letter
    Don't read too much into affectations like topping-and-tailing a letter whose body refers to "yesterday's Parliamentary by-elections".
    https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1540191893258207232
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,683
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.

    A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
    Good summary.

    On current polling, “a few” inroads is all Starmer and Sarwar are going to manage in Scotland, if that.

    The last full-sample Scottish poll had Labour on just 22%, and although the latest YouGov sub-sample had them on 29%, that would only gain them a handful of SNP seats.

    Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    Voting intention - Scotland
    Reverse chronological order
    (+/- change from last UK GE)

    SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
    SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
    SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
    SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
    Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
    Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
    oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)

    Yes parties 52% (+5)
    No parties 49% (-4)

    We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
    We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?
    Yes. I don't remotely think Labour is close to reversing its 2015 collapse in Scotland - but there are green shoots, in part as SNP scandals are becoming regular enough that they can't just be explained away, that maybe take the sting out of their appeal to left-leaning voters - it gives Labour a message to voters who have shunned it - but also due to the mess the Tories and Douglas Ross have got themselves into with hokey cokeying on Johnson. Sarwar is also just a reasonably competent politician rather than a non-entity or a disliked product of the Labour Scots rejected 2008-2015.

    Does that mean the political weather has changed there? No. But some gains from a very low base could be the difference between a majority - if one's optimistic about results in England - or a possible coalition with the Lib Dems that can avoid the dreaded questions over having to do deals with the SNP.
    Based on this Wakefield result and the dreadful local election results, Lab Maj is out of the question. The current 4/1 is ridiculously short. Wouldn’t be value at double that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,599
    OnboardG1 said:

    I imagine Grant Shapps is in bed with his pillow over his head,

    Gently though so as not to disturb his ludicrous wig.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,452

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    No one's hatred of EVs survives ownership of one.

    (I'm on my third.)
    I think there's very little hatred of EVs. The problem is that they're too costly and not effective enough for anyone who is not either fairly well-off, or really into cars.

    Just this morning I was looking at the Hyundai Ioniq5. This is a well-regarded EV, with a range of up to 315 miles. Best of all it is not a Tesla.

    But it costs £40k to £52k.

    The smaller Kona EV has a similar range, and costs from £30K. The ICE Hyundai i30 Tourer starts at £22k.

    We simply cannot justify spending that much on a car. Hopefully that will change within a few years, and second-hand cars become more available.
    Though depreciation approaches zero on EVs. My eniro is 2 years old, 17 000 miles and valued at £32 000 on car price sites. I paid £34 000.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,153
    Foxy said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Meanwhile, I’m finding myself glad I didn’t order a Toyota for this round of new car shopping:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61919424

    “Motor industry giant Toyota is recalling 2,700 of its first mass-produced all-electric vehicles over concerns their wheels may fall off.”

    Now, I love me an EV, but this seems like an enormously poor headline to have when launching your first one.

    We got our first EV in the spring: the fantastic BMW Mini. God, that’s a great wee vehicle, despite its Union Jacks all over the place. Dreadful range, but heck, I’m not planning on driving to Monte Carlo in the damn thing.

    I’m a total convert. This time last year I was an ICE fan.

    The problem is we need to replace the Volvo SUV soon, and I’m less keen on EV technology for the 6 hour journeys that that vehicle undertakes on occasion. Sweden is a *very* big country.
    I really wanted an EV this time round but the cost point for U.K. complete EVs (200 miles of real world motorway range and 150KW rapid charge) is still about 40k. That’s about 10k more than my wallet can manage. Plus the rapid charge infrastructure in the U.K. is atrocious. I deliberately checked the state of the chargers when I was driving for business in the first three months of the year and at most service stations they were 4x60KW units that had at least one charger out of action at every station. It’s really, really poor that we don’t have a centralised initiative to install proper high-power chargers at every motorway service station on the major arterials.

    In the end I bought a Mazda 3 saloon with the clever SCCI engine in a four year PCP deal. With any luck by the time it ends I’ll be able to trade up to an equivalent EV.
    The Renault Zoe meets that 200 mile spec, but is a bit basic inside. My 14 year old Fiat is on its last legs so I am in the market for a new motor, alongside our Kia eniro, which I am massively impressed by.

    Driving an EV is simply much nicer than ICE cars, the smoothness and power are quite a revelation with EVs, and charging not quite the issue people imagine. Initially EV drivers have range anxiety, but it disappears in weeks, being not much of an issue in real life.

    I am not quite ready to go fully EV yet, partly because of long delivery times at present, so am going hybrid this time, but it is likely to be my last ever petrol vehicle.
    Funnily enough I’m replacing a 14 year old FIAT, although it’s still a low-mileage and sprightly thing which I can probably get a decent price for. I’m not convinced the Zoe can actually get 200 motorway miles IRL otherwise I might have gone for it (charge rate is also a bit low). Annoyingly, I need a car for all seasons and to get one of those you’re looking at 40k, or a lead time into next year if you want an E-Niro or Kona (and I don’t really like SUVs).

    That said I expect in a couple of years time we’re going to see more legacy manufacturers pull their finger out and work on affordable mass market EVs more comprehensively. That Toyota is on a par with the RAV4 and aside from the wheel thing I don’t know why you’d buy a Hybrid RAV4 over the bZ. I think Mazda might come up with something surprisingly good, and it’s never wise to write off Ford.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 57
    Keystone said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    I've gone on record very recently saying that Starmer is trying too hard too often not to offend anybody, with the result that he comes across as timid and vacuous, but let's not write off the Labour policy agenda until we actually get to an election and see what's in their manifesto. They're bound not to give too many specifics before that, because of the eternal problem of the Government running them past focus groups, stealing the popular stuff and demonising them for the remainder. So I think it's far too soon to be labelling Labour as "clueless."
    Actually - it makes complete sense for Starmer to act as an ill-defined hopeful alternative for the many people who are becoming disenchanted with the government.

    Why allow the government to box him in before the election?

    More importantly, we can expect the Conservatives to go negative on Starmer and Labour before the election.

    With the usual press blitz, and attempts to turn Starmer's core strengths Vs Johnson (probity, competence and an eye for detail) into weaknesses.

    Hypocrisy, and a North London out of touch Human Rights lawyer.

    The goal will be to discredit him so thoroughly people won't listen to him during the campaign.

    Starmer knows what is coming - it's been the same tune since Cameron - and is not going to make their job easier.
    I (want to) completely agree with this. Starmer has been ruthless and effective in the past, and no doubt has also analysed recent elections, noting the enthusiasm directed towards Labour when they published a policy-filled moderately left-wing manifesto in 2017. I imagine he is wagering on (a) riding anti-Tory sentiment sufficiently to retain his relative popularity and therefore power over his party and (b) announcing a flurry of popular policies whenever the next general election comes round.

    I hope and suspect that none of us will remember the current deep ambivalence about Starmer a week before the next election.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,219
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden quit just before being due to lead morning broadcast round 😬

    Meanwhile Tory candidate Helen Hurford hid in dance studio at sports centre count in Tiverton & Honiton last night - also refusing to face press.

    Priti Patel now stepping in, & will be on @TimesRadio at 08.45

    TimesRadio? That’s like hiding in a fridge.
    Correct..... who is on at 8.10am on Radio 4? That's what I want to know.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338
    Interesting phrasing on the R4 news bulletin.

    "Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have suffered a defeat..."
This discussion has been closed.