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The LDs claim to be just 2% behind in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Scott_xP said:

    My advice to Starmer is use their strength as a weakness.

    Go nuclear. "I'm a lawyer, I have spent my whole life in the law and the EHRC could be better, so let's bring plans forward to change it". Feck it. Call Raab's bluff and watch the mess.

    I assume you have seen this

    #ECHR https://twitter.com/BelfastAgmt/status/1536844343922896900/video/1
    Do you know who wrote it and financed it?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,311
    The Lord Geidt resignation is an interesting one, not a major headline grabber but one that continues to weave a whiff a corruption/malfeasance by BJ and the Cabinet and likely to nudge a few more 1922 members onto the anti BJ camp (esp if they were neutral).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    Royal Ascot this afternoon sees the Queen's one-time Derby hope Reach for the Moon odds-on favourite for the Hampton Court Stakes at 5.35. Rumour is Her Majesty will back him in a double with Just Fine in Friday's Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (the 3.40).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    The Lord Geidt resignation is an interesting one, not a major headline grabber but one that continues to weave a whiff a corruption/malfeasance by BJ and the Cabinet and likely to nudge a few more 1922 members onto the anti BJ camp (esp if they were neutral).

    "...not a major headline grabber..."

    Although it did grab the major headlines in all the broadsheets, and the BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Times... news sites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice .
    The what now?
    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    As Nick Palmer mentions above

    During a committee appearance on Tuesday, Lord Geidt admitted he is an “asset of the PM” rather than enjoying full independence.

    Speaking before the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee (PACAC), Lord Geidt was questioned on whether there was any point to his role as “Independent Advisor on the Ministerial Code”, given the Prime Minister still retains the power to block investigations.

    Lord Geidt’s role is directly appointed by the Prime Minister, who retains the sole power to judge whether the rules have been broken and impose sanctions.

    Labour MP John McDonnell suggested Lord Geidt’s role was “little more than a tin of whitewash.”


    During a committee appearance on Tuesday, Lord Geidt admitted he is an “asset of the PM” rather than enjoying full independence.

    Speaking before the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee (PACAC), Lord Geidt was questioned on whether there was any point to his role as “Independent Advisor on the Ministerial Code”, given the Prime Minister still retains the power to block investigations.

    Lord Geidt’s role is directly appointed by the Prime Minister, who retains the sole power to judge whether the rules have been broken and impose sanctions.

    Labour MP John McDonnell suggested Lord Geidt’s role was “little more than a tin of whitewash.”


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnsons-ethics-chief-27245365

    So the biggest scalp of this parliament is taken by a discredited Corbynista. Maybe Starmer and Labour's front bench should up their game, unless it really is true they want to cement Boris in place, which I doubt.


    Sorry, not for me. Bringing Maos little red book into Parliament was a red flag. Mao was a mass murderer on the scale of Stalin and Hitler, and he thought it right to bring his book into the House of Commons? Why does the left have such a blind spot?

    Edit messed up quotes somehow...
    He brought it in to make the point Cameron and Osborne were too much in bed with the Chinese for this country’s good. That they, ahem, had a blind spot to how deep they were getting us in with the Chinese.

    Only time labour have had a positive nod from my mum, when they made that point.
    Yes, this is what happened:

    "“To assist comrade Osborne about dealing with his newfound comrades, I have brought him along Mao’s Little Red Book,” he said.

    McDonnell then was forced to pause, amid laughter from the Conservative benches.

    After the Speaker restored order, McDonnell said: “Let’s quote from Mao, rarely done in this chamber. The quote is this: ‘We must learn to do economic work from all who know how, no matter who they are, we must esteem them as teachers, learning from them respectfully and conscientiously, but we must not pretend to know what we do not know.’

    “I thought it would come in handy for him in his new relationship,” he added."

    I am old enough to remember how cosy the Conservative government was with President XI, and Putin as well.
    There it is again. You think it appropriate to use Mao even as a joke? It’s abhorrent.
    Do you feel the same about Stalin being used in a joke by Cable?
    Yes
    What about Churchill speaking positively of Stalin?
    I don't agree with turbotubb's complete embargo on jokes involving murderous tyrants, but whenever people make that particular point I don't think it is as cutting as some evidently think it is. It was a rather different time and critical moment, and even afterwards the geopolitical situation was quite different.

    There's lots of things people might have said that once might have made sense, even if not worthy of approval, which doesn't speak to now.
    So you would be fine with Hitler’s Mein Kampf being brought into the chamber?

    Here’s the thing. People on the right see Mao as evil, hence turbo’s comments. So we put Hitler and Mao in the evil category.

    However, people on the left seem to have this view of “his heart was in the right place”.
    You've extrapolated rather wildly. I agree that tyrants like Mao and, remarkably, even Stalin somehow get to be seen as more generally acceptable somehow, and that is genuinely strange. You seem to be presuming a political position I don't hold.

    I'm just not as viscerally opposed to dark, inappropriate jokes.

    I also don't have an issue with an MP bringing up those examples, because if they did they would get pilloried for it. Whilst McDonnell didn't draw shocked gasps he got ridiculed by Osborne for it, the equivalent of a pillorying, and that seems to be the predominant memory most have of the incident.
    One big difference is that Stalin and Mao were our allies, at least for a time, but a rather crucial time, so get some credit for that, even though they didn't intentionally become our allies.
    I’ll give you Stalin, but Mao was barely an ally.
    The Chinese people were though. When we had airmen shot down the Chinese villagers helped them escape, then the Japs murdered the entire village for helping us.
    Chinese role as an ally in WW2 should never be gainsaid. There were more Japanese troops tied down in China than the rest of the Pacific put together. Some by the Communists, some by the KMT.
    Would have been a different war had they capitulated
    And for them, of course, the war started in 1937.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    As they have a crew of 3, this implies at least 20 systems by then.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1537276276649648128
    HIMARS MLRS will be in Donbas by end of June - 🇺🇸General Milley

    60 Ukrainian soldiers have finished training on operating them.…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113

    There is one guarantee. Article 50 is changed to be a one-time event. We've had ours. So if we come back, we can never leave.

    That would never get through a referendum.

    A "guarantee" that someone like Nigel Fucking Farage could never put us through this shitshow again?

    Where do we sign...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,109
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    There is one guarantee. Article 50 is changed to be a one-time event. We've had ours. So if we come back, we can never leave.

    That would never get through a referendum.

    That's not true, of course, A50 notwithstanding.

    But as rejoining is extremely unlikely any time soon, it's unlikely to be seriously debated.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200
    edited June 16
    The ECHR is a very difficult problem. I am in broad agreement with the two different and somewhat contradictory perspectives: that it is necessary to act as a constitutional bulwark against the tyranny of the majority, but also that it has become corrupted due to judicial activism.

    Any solution proposed by this government would not 'solve' the problems of the ECHR, it would just be undertaken in the tradition of smashing up institutions for very short term political gain. They are working on the intellectual level of a drug addict doing various petty crime to feed their addiction, smashing stuff up and setting it on fire to get a 'hit', the ECHR should be kept firmly off limits.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200
    If the LDs are 2% behind in Tiverton, then this suggests that the story here is that the Conservative vote is holding up and not collapsing, even in the current less than ideal circumstances.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    edited June 16
    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    darkage said:

    If the LDs are 2% behind in Tiverton, then this suggests that the story here is that the Conservative vote is holding up and not collapsing, even in the current less than ideal circumstances.

    Did you read Mike's piece though? The LibDems have said exactly the same in all 4 previous by-elections that they went on to win comfortably.

    The LibDems will win Tiverton & Honiton by in excess of 10%
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    darkage said:

    If the LDs are 2% behind in Tiverton, then this suggests that the story here is that the Conservative vote is holding up and not collapsing, even in the current less than ideal circumstances.

    It is a classic get out the vote tactic, and as OGH points out similar polls have been leaked before other victories. I would take it with a shovelful of salt.

    I think the Tories are the value bet in Tiverton. It is a massive majority in a true blue shire seat to overturn. I suspect close but no cigar for the LDs, but I thought the same in North Shrops.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    edited June 16

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    If the LDs are 2% behind in Tiverton, then this suggests that the story here is that the Conservative vote is holding up and not collapsing, even in the current less than ideal circumstances.


    I think the Tories are the value bet in Tiverton. .
    I honestly wouldn't touch a vote on the tories there with a bargepole.

    Past performance is no indicator but I haven't been wrong about a political bet for quite a while. Not for a couple of years anyway. I think this is a comfortable LibDem win and it will heap yet more pressure on Johnson.

    The voters haven't yet had their chance to express the fury and, believe me, in southern Britain it remains palpable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Boris ethics advisor is a hard job. Easier to be Iliver Reeds
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    The PM role in our constitution was not designed for a showman, but for a competent servant leader.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    edited June 16
    Jonathan said:

    Boris ethics advisor is a hard job. Easier to be Iliver Reeds

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    The PM role in our constitution was not designed for a showman, but for a competent servant leader.
    Quite!

    As a minor aside I rather lament the demise of the shorter twice-a-week PMQ's. The current format makes the whole thing much more of a show, whereas it used to be more routine and therefore, paradoxically, more focused on genuine scrutiny of the PM's business.

    I accept that we live in a media age but Trump and Johnson have taken this to an extreme that is very unhealthy for anyone who upholds the virtues of western democracy. Johnson is presidential in style and, as you rightly say, that's not our constitution.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Scott_xP said:

    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...

    Italy talks soft, as does France and Germany, but there have been a lot of flights quietly landing at the Polish logistics hub from all 3 (as well as UK, USA and other NATO countries).

    https://twitter.com/Goodies4Ukraine/status/1537128291819298818?t=aae8FCSBJGyEEREslrJNkg&s=19
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    I think the problem with Starmer's style is that he has made himself extremely vulnerable to any accusation of rule bending. It is a bad strategy, because politics like all areas of life involves creative interpretations of rules and some risk taking in this department. The success of Johnson can be explained by his willingness to tear up the rules to get stuff done, people found this refreshing. Their enthusiasm for this is waning post partygate, but it doesn't mean that they are willing to go to the other extreme.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    edited June 16
    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Do we still think the MPC will come out with 0.25% tomorrow?

    At least, quite likely 0.5%.

    0.5% would crash the economy. the impact on mortgage owners would be immense

    BoE has been quietly rowing back on its language on interest rates
    That isn't in the BoE's remit and it's why Bailey has no credibility with the markets. They keep worrying about the economy and not the fucking rate of inflation which is destroying the economy. Fuck the landlords and housing speculators that will get burned by rate rises.
    Owner occupiers will be burnt far more seriously than landlords; they (you?) get far more subsidies, and mortgage far more heavily.

    LLs are long-term investors/business people who will wait it out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Boris Johnson's recent moves of changing trade rules for Northern Ireland and flying migrants to Rwanda has thrust Britain into a nasty web of legal disputes that risks making the country look like an international scofflaw. https://nyti.ms/3NYt9Z9
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    The BBC vox pops in these byelections aren't helpful either. For some reason they think it essential to show an equal number of pro Johnson as anti even though in all likelihood in order to get the two from either side who appear on air they probably interviewed twenty.

    I don't believe there is any obligation on the TV companies to make the numbers even and it certainly skews people's idea of what's going on. What is noticable is that the pro Johnson folk seem particularly stupid which I read as having to scrape the barrel to find them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Nigelb said:

    As they have a crew of 3, this implies at least 20 systems by then.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1537276276649648128
    HIMARS MLRS will be in Donbas by end of June - 🇺🇸General Milley

    60 Ukrainian soldiers have finished training on operating them.…

    I think it's optimistic to assume they'll be actually in the Donbas. They might be able to hit the Russian positions in it, depending on where the front line is by then.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Do we still think the MPC will come out with 0.25% tomorrow?

    At least, quite likely 0.5%.

    0.5% would crash the economy. the impact on mortgage owners would be immense

    BoE has been quietly rowing back on its language on interest rates
    That isn't in the BoE's remit and it's why Bailey has no credibility with the markets. They keep worrying about the economy and not the fucking rate of inflation which is destroying the economy. Fuck the landlords and housing speculators that will get burned by rate rises.
    Owner occupiers will be burnt far more seriously than landlords; they (you?) get far more subsidies, and mortgage far more heavily.

    LLs are long-term investors/business people who will wait it out.
    Also a disproportionate number bought for cash.

    But I honestly don't see a rate rise making much difference to the housing market in the short term. Too many mortgages are on long fixed rates. It would be at least two years, maybe even three or four, before it made a difference to house prices.

    Equally, that makes you wonder what the point of raising rates would be, especially since it isn't a credit bubble that's causing the problem. More likely it would make short term borrowing more expensive and thus push even more people into fuel/food poverty.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747

    Lord Geidt as Johnson's ETHICS ADVISOR suggests he will go down in history as someone whose career was not a total success.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747

    Lord Geidt as Johnson's ETHICS ADVISOR suggests he will go down in history as someone whose career was not a total success.
    One of the most difficult jobs in the world.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,109
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    edited June 16
    Nigelb said:

    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...

    It really isn't hard to figure out why in a period of full employment and 15% food inflation with rising interest rates why workers are not happy with a 2% pay rise and planning on striking.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    As they have a crew of 3, this implies at least 20 systems by then.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1537276276649648128
    HIMARS MLRS will be in Donbas by end of June - 🇺🇸General Milley

    60 Ukrainian soldiers have finished training on operating them.…

    6 systems, 3 x 8 hour shifts and a spare per system
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    Do we have much evidence that Starmer is a capable manager? Attlee proved to be a very effective chair of a heavyweight cabinet, but we are yet to see evidence that Starmer can do it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...

    It really isn't hard to figure out why in a period of full employment and 15% food inflation with rising interest rates why workers are not happy with a 2% pay rise and planning on striking.
    We only need the dead unburied and piles of rotting rubbish on the street horsemen of the apocalypse for that full nostalgia vibe.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    Do we have much evidence that Starmer is a capable manager? Attlee proved to be a very effective chair of a heavyweight cabinet, but we are yet to see evidence that Starmer can do it.
    The Labour Party was a complete mess when he took over, the potential for chaos was huge, the fact it’s now boring is a major win. That owes a lot to Starmer, who didn’t hesitate to take on critics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    As they have a crew of 3, this implies at least 20 systems by then.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1537276276649648128
    HIMARS MLRS will be in Donbas by end of June - 🇺🇸General Milley

    60 Ukrainian soldiers have finished training on operating them.…

    6 systems, 3 x 8 hour shifts and a spare per system
    10 systems have been promised/delivered 4 from USA, 3 each from UK and Germany, with 10 reloads for each.

    Considering the range of these, the numbers of reloads is probably more significant than the number of launchers. If kept safe a single system could cover the entire Kherson front. The logistics tail needed for the reloads is formidable though.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    The idea that a manager, especially one with collegiality, cannot lead effectively - even in a visionary manner - is simply untrue.

    You don't need a song and dance man to deal with this country's "deep-rooted problems". Indeed, I'd much rather have a serious person to tackle them, not someone who is more interested in getting their fizzog on the gogglebox.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Scott_xP said:

    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...

    1 on 1 meetings are more valuable than group sessions.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think the LDs are 2% behind at all. I think they're ahead by miles.
    LD propaganda.

    Saying one thing when the facts are otherwise isn’t “propaganda”…

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    Do we have much evidence that Starmer is a capable manager? Attlee proved to be a very effective chair of a heavyweight cabinet, but we are yet to see evidence that Starmer can do it.
    The Labour Party was a complete mess when he took over, the potential for chaos was huge, the fact it’s now boring is a major win. That owes a lot to Starmer, who didn’t hesitate to take on critics.
    I am not saying that there hasn't been progress, but running a country is a different business, and there are a lot of unresolved issues in the Labour Party, including some expensive legal cases.

    A huge step up from the current narcissist with the attention span of a goldfish with alzheimers of course!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747

    Lord Geidt as Johnson's ETHICS ADVISOR suggests he will go down in history as someone whose career was not a total success.
    One of the most difficult jobs in the world.
    'Johnson's ethics....' must be damn close to an oxymoron
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747

    Lord Geidt as Johnson's ETHICS ADVISOR suggests he will go down in history as someone whose career was not a total success.
    One of the most difficult jobs in the world.
    'Johnson's ethics....' must be damn close to an oxymoron
    Not a difficult job, just requires the hide of a rhino to tolerate as much as possible before the inevitable resignation letter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Geidt wrote a long resignation letter to the prime minister yesterday.

    But the Government has said it has no plans to publish it, meaning we don't know exactly what pushed him over the edge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61819747

    Lord Geidt as Johnson's ETHICS ADVISOR suggests he will go down in history as someone whose career was not a total success.
    One of the most difficult jobs in the world.
    'Johnson's ethics....' must be damn close to an oxymoron
    Not a difficult job, just requires the hide of a rhino to tolerate as much as possible before the inevitable resignation letter.
    Lord Geidt has taken flight from the crock of shite.
    The fat crook remains stuck in the No10 nook...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    Do we have much evidence that Starmer is a capable manager? Attlee proved to be a very effective chair of a heavyweight cabinet, but we are yet to see evidence that Starmer can do it.
    The Labour Party was a complete mess when he took over, the potential for chaos was huge, the fact it’s now boring is a major win. That owes a lot to Starmer, who didn’t hesitate to take on critics.
    I am not saying that there hasn't been progress, but running a country is a different business, and there are a lot of unresolved issues in the Labour Party, including some expensive legal cases.

    A huge step up from the current narcissist with the attention span of a goldfish with alzheimers of course!
    In my view doing the boring work to stabilise the situation was absolutely necessary. The only question is to what extent it is sufficient.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    Time to stock up on emergency defibrillators, and get CPR training.
    ...In England as a whole, the average response for a category two emergency, such as a heart attack or stroke, has risen to more than 51 minutes - almost three times longer than the 18-minute target...

    Stroke victims are screwed.
  • I kind of feel like sleaze is turning into anti-Semitism
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    edited June 16
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Toldya


    ‘At the Labour Communications group on June 8 Ms McMorrin was asked: “Could we ever return to the single market?”

    She replied: “I really hope so.”

    She added: “Customs union and single market at the very least I think, in future.”

    She accepted “there is not really scope for having that conversation at the moment”, but said all that could change if Labour won power.’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18889986/keir-starmer-ally-labour-government-brexit/

    She’s already been reprimanded. You’re behind.
    But I was right. Again. And here is proof

    I was the first, I believe, to make this pretty obvious extrapolation. As soon as Labour gain power, whoever is leader will come under intense pressure to move much closer to the EU. Single market membership will follow swiftly.

    If it is Keir “second vote” Starmer he will be emotionally inclined to agree - to put it mildly. We will be back in the SM by 2026-7. He could even use the boat crisis as an excuse. “This way we can get the French to co-operate” etc

    No, I don't think so. Certainly a more constructive attitude to our continental and Irish friends, but he is too frit to join the SM or CU.

    He is ahead in the polls and on course for number 10, but his timidity on policy is his achillies heel. Ultimately Starmer needs to say what he wants to change, and what he wants to change it to. At the moment he gives the impression of not knowing his own mind.
    Starmer is an organiser not a leader. A manager not a director. He will take instructions from his peer group, and they will tell him: SM. And he will manage it and organize it

    His intense boringness might actually make it easier to sell
    Very good summary of Starmer.
    It might be but it isn't a very good summary of leadership.

    Being a manager IS a form of leadership. It's just not Leon's preferred style of showmanship. Leon can afford to enjoy the likes of Trump or Boris or Blair. They perhaps suit his dilettantish lifestyle. But these are serious times and, arguably, call for a serious leader. Dour even.

    There have been plenty of manager-style leaders in No. 10: people who get on with the job of running the country competently and efficiently. People who have a good eye for detail and who believe in a being ethically upright and upholding the law.
    Being a manager means you'll be an effective administrator of day to day business.

    That might be an improvement on the current incumbent of No.10 but it doesn't mean they'll clearly lead the nation to solve any of the countries deep-rooted problems - it means they'll react to them and the concerns of their colleagues as and when they arise through process.
    Do we have much evidence that Starmer is a capable manager? Attlee proved to be a very effective chair of a heavyweight cabinet, but we are yet to see evidence that Starmer can do it.
    The Labour Party was a complete mess when he took over, the potential for chaos was huge, the fact it’s now boring is a major win. That owes a lot to Starmer, who didn’t hesitate to take on critics.
    It's when you read the posts from BJO that you realise what he's had to deal with and for that he deserves a lot of respect. My concerns are that he doesn't surround himself with the right talent. Labour have several articulate and attractive performers yet when it comes to high profile programs they aren't the ones on show.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    It's a dreadful story. And if the guy hadn't been so positive when he rang up and said he'd fallen and he was in a bad way the ambulance service might have hurried a bit more.
    It's 'not British' to panic but it might be a good idea!

    And good morning to one and all; fine and bright here again.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson's recent moves of changing trade rules for Northern Ireland and flying migrants to Rwanda has thrust Britain into a nasty web of legal disputes that risks making the country look like an international scofflaw. https://nyti.ms/3NYt9Z9

    I think it’s more Johnson’s government thrust into a final dying spasm before it combusts entirely.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
    From the reports, it looks as though he may well have been (unlike most nuts with guns) genuinely mentally ill.
    I'd take a very different message from this than do you. This is not large parts of the Democratic Party (encouraged by their leader) attempting to subvert the Democratic process.
    Rather it's an illustration of why the US needs to do something about its gun problem.
    He may well be but there has been little coverage of the attempt. Certainly far less from the national press than you would have expected if it was a Justice of the left.

    I disagree with your main point though. Kavanaugh’s been targeted because he is seen as the one most likely to bend to pressure. It’s why his wife has been sent messages by pro-abortion groups saying we know where your kids go to school and his house details publicised (as they have for the other Justices who want to get rid of RvW).

    It’s a clear attempt to use the threat of violence to sway the Justices’ decision and, in this case, the one seen as the most pliable. The condemnation of what has gone on from the Administration has been tepid. And, of course, good old Chuck Schumer who talked about the Justices reaping what they sow has been quiet.

    Read “Why Nations Fail”. A clear message is that a society declines when both sides feel as though the other side will not play fair when it comes to the question of ruling. If you think this is just a GOP problem, think again.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...

    It really isn't hard to figure out why in a period of full employment and 15% food inflation with rising interest rates why workers are not happy with a 2% pay rise and planning on striking.
    We only need the dead unburied and piles of rotting rubbish on the street horsemen of the apocalypse for that full nostalgia vibe.
    Radio 4 has just reported that Toy Story came out 30 years ago…
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403

    Scott_xP said:

    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...

    1 on 1 meetings are more valuable than group sessions.
    If you say so. I'd have thought a meeting with three of the most powerful leaders in Europe and all within the EU which is Ukraine's dream would be about as good as it could get.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson's recent moves of changing trade rules for Northern Ireland and flying migrants to Rwanda has thrust Britain into a nasty web of legal disputes that risks making the country look like an international scofflaw. https://nyti.ms/3NYt9Z9

    I think it’s more Johnson’s government thrust into a final dying spasm before it combusts entirely.

    The headline in the Mail suggests that someone in Govt. is actually seriously thinking of leaving the Course of Human Rights.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
    From the reports, it looks as though he may well have been (unlike most nuts with guns) genuinely mentally ill.
    I'd take a very different message from this than do you. This is not large parts of the Democratic Party (encouraged by their leader) attempting to subvert the Democratic process.
    Rather it's an illustration of why the US needs to do something about its gun problem.
    He may well be but there has been little coverage of the attempt. Certainly far less from the national press than you would have expected if it was a Justice of the left.

    I disagree with your main point though. Kavanaugh’s been targeted because he is seen as the one most likely to bend to pressure. It’s why his wife has been sent messages by pro-abortion groups saying we know where your kids go to school and his house details publicised (as they have for the other Justices who want to get rid of RvW).

    It’s a clear attempt to use the threat of violence to sway the Justices’ decision and, in this case, the one seen as the most pliable. The condemnation of what has gone on from the Administration has been tepid. And, of course, good old Chuck Schumer who talked about the Justices reaping what they sow has been quiet.

    Read “Why Nations Fail”. A clear message is that a society declines when both sides feel as though the other side will not play fair when it comes to the question of ruling. If you think this is just a GOP problem, think again.
    In what way is the Democratic administration 'not playing fair' ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson's recent moves of changing trade rules for Northern Ireland and flying migrants to Rwanda has thrust Britain into a nasty web of legal disputes that risks making the country look like an international scofflaw. https://nyti.ms/3NYt9Z9

    I think it’s more Johnson’s government thrust into a final dying spasm before it combusts entirely.

    The headline in the Mail suggests that someone in Govt. is actually seriously thinking of leaving the Course of Human Rights.

    “One of the great things we gave to Europe.” So said Boris Johnson, describing the European Convention on Human Rights back in 2016.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-boris-johnson-slams-the-european-court-of-human-rights-but-will-he-act/
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,980
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wow. Former Cabinet Secretary Lord Turnbull tells @BBCNewsnight that @BorisJohnson "is not worthy of the office" of Prime Minister.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1537188940431638528

    Is that really a 'wow'? I mean, I agree with him, but he's a crossbencher and former top bureaucrat from, what, 15 years ago? Even if we rarely get such comments from former officials, many others have said similar.
    Everything on Twitter seems to need prefacing with 'Wow.'. Everything is always some sort of 'zinger' smart alec comparison that bears no actual scrutiny too. 'Wow. Only this morning Boris claimed to be eating breakfast. Now? Lunch.'
    Wow, what a great point!

    I saw someone the other day lamenting pretty much any plan being described as a plot, as in 'LDs plot to win seats in the South'.
    The ones that get me are “row” and “pressure”. You get it a lot on the news.

    “Today there’s been a row about X”. Has there? Between who? Anyone other than expected political opponents?

    “The Government/Opposition is under pressure over Y”. Is it? From who? You? It’s standard opponents?
    And any politician who criticises their own party is always "senior",
    and every parliamentary seat is "key".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    edited June 16

    I kind of feel like sleaze is turning into anti-Semitism

    It's gone way past that. Not everyone accepted Corbyn was anti semitic. There is no one in the country who believes Johnson isn't a lying sleazebag
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,660
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B, the assumption that the words that come out of Boris Johnson's mouth bear any relation to what he thinks or will do is hopelessly optimistic.

    It's more a case of oral flatulation, no more profound than the trembling whimpers of a sleeping dog.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Scott_xP said:

    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...

    1 on 1 meetings are more valuable than group sessions.
    Not if the 1 on 1 meetings are to tell him "Be reasonable. man. It's been trashed, there's no point in getting the Donbas back. Oh - and that ammunition you so badly need...?"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    Astonishing that when attacked with things like this, BJ mumbles he is sorry before switching back into bragging about how marvellous everything is. He is such an amoral prick - as are the remaining people still supporting him.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think the LDs are 2% behind at all. I think they're ahead by miles.
    LD propaganda.

    Have you taken into account the effect of the Conservative Party Dirty Tricks Department?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    A lot of weird things happen on PB but finding my morning thread littered with shields of bustards is definitely up there.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    A striking cri de coeur from Steve Baker today calling on Cabinet to oust Johnson.

    It’s not new the influential Tory backbencher wants Johnson to go, but such an explicit exhortation for Cabinet ministers to step up & wield the sword feels an escalation

    H/t @e_casalicchio
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1537330564440674309/photo/1
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    It's a dreadful story. And if the guy hadn't been so positive when he rang up and said he'd fallen and he was in a bad way the ambulance service might have hurried a bit more.
    It's 'not British' to panic but it might be a good idea!

    And good morning to one and all; fine and bright here again.
    Good morning OKC.

    It is indeed a dreadful story. Absolutely appalling. And it is not simply about GP's (see below): you can see what's coming next from Johnson. Bash the GP's. Actually the NHS is in a chronic situation with understaffing in A&E's.

    A friend of mine had a not dissimilar story. He was out on a run when he saw someone have a very nasty fall. They banged their head on a pavement, blood all over the place and they were unconscious for a while then clearly concussed and not compos menti. My friend phoned for an ambulance to be told it could be several hours.

    So he drove the stranger to A&E ... and subsequently received a speeding fine.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,145

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...

    It really isn't hard to figure out why in a period of full employment and 15% food inflation with rising interest rates why workers are not happy with a 2% pay rise and planning on striking.
    We only need the dead unburied and piles of rotting rubbish on the street horsemen of the apocalypse for that full nostalgia vibe.
    Radio 4 has just reported that Toy Story came out 30 years ago…
    Not quite, but nearly. I went to the pictures when it came out to see it with my first ‘proper’ girlfriend when I was 17 or 18. Probably 17. And I’m 44 now.

    Worryingly close though.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B, the assumption that the words that come out of Boris Johnson's mouth bear any relation to what he thinks or will do is hopelessly optimistic.

    It's more a case of oral flatulation, no more profound than the trembling whimpers of a sleeping dog.

    The latter would be preferable as PM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    I know he’s got the shortest of straws this morning but I do feel someone should have warned Dominic Raab that we can all hear him
    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1537336047645827072
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
    When I attended A&E a couple of months back with broken ribs, which I was told I HAD to have checked because of potential impactive lung damage, there were TWO doctors working in A&E ... with 65 patients waiting, which rose to over 100.

    The wait time went up from 3.5 hours to 4.5 hours and then over 8 hours. At which point I gave up.

    Don't have a medical emergency in Britain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
    From the reports, it looks as though he may well have been (unlike most nuts with guns) genuinely mentally ill.
    I'd take a very different message from this than do you. This is not large parts of the Democratic Party (encouraged by their leader) attempting to subvert the Democratic process.
    Rather it's an illustration of why the US needs to do something about its gun problem.
    He may well be but there has been little coverage of the attempt. Certainly far less from the national press than you would have expected if it was a Justice of the left.

    I disagree with your main point though. Kavanaugh’s been targeted because he is seen as the one most likely to bend to pressure. It’s why his wife has been sent messages by pro-abortion groups saying we know where your kids go to school and his house details publicised (as they have for the other Justices who want to get rid of RvW).

    It’s a clear attempt to use the threat of violence to sway the Justices’ decision and, in this case, the one seen as the most pliable. The condemnation of what has gone on from the Administration has been tepid. And, of course, good old Chuck Schumer who talked about the Justices reaping what they sow has been quiet.

    Read “Why Nations Fail”. A clear message is that a society declines when both sides feel as though the other side will not play fair when it comes to the question of ruling. If you think this is just a GOP problem, think again.
    The US is in a seriously bad place politically.

    A small minority with extreme opinions on each side are dominating the debate, the polarisation encouraged by media and especially social media. People no longer believe that their mainstream political opponents are good people, and are too quick to assign the bad faith and base motives of the extremists to everyone who disagrees.

    Oh, and we are expecting the Supreme Court verdict on Roe v Wade in the next 24 hours, which is unlikely to help things, to put it mildly. In the past few weeks there has a range of opinions from politicians on the subject - ranging from miscarriage should be illegal, to infanticide should be legal.

    I don’t know how it happens, but everyone involved in US politics needs to take a step back from the brink. The last few years have already seen sporadic political violence, there has to be genuine concern it might escalate further.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    I hesitate to mention the B word because Leon will come on here later and tell us that we're all plotting to rejoin.

    However, it's clear that part of the problem now is a chronic staff shortage. Who'd have thought that all those nasty foreigners kept the NHS running?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    It's a dreadful story. And if the guy hadn't been so positive when he rang up and said he'd fallen and he was in a bad way the ambulance service might have hurried a bit more.
    It's 'not British' to panic but it might be a good idea!

    And good morning to one and all; fine and bright here again.
    Morning, OKC. I'm reminded of the time a British regiment was sustaining a major enemy attack together with a US one in Korea. The Forward Observation Officer phoned up the American artillery command and started "We're in a spot of bother ...", whereas his American oppo in the adjacent regiment screamed and shouted down the line for fire support. Guess which unit got the support?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    The problem with Steve Baker's solution is BoZo Explicitly denuded the cabinet of all statesmen and women...

    💥 Steve Baker tells @e_casalicchio: “It’s time for the great statesmen and women in the Cabinet to rise to the moment and get a grip of this situation before it degenerates any further”


    via Playbook: https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited June 16

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Grocery trade body forecasting 15% food inflation this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/16/uk-food-price-rises-inflation-summer-report-ukraine-china-brexit-wheat
    ...The report says Britain’s food and consumer goods industry is “uniquely exposed to current pressures due to a reliance on food imports and the impacts of EU exit”...

    It really isn't hard to figure out why in a period of full employment and 15% food inflation with rising interest rates why workers are not happy with a 2% pay rise and planning on striking.
    We only need the dead unburied and piles of rotting rubbish on the street horsemen of the apocalypse for that full nostalgia vibe.
    'Grocer' also has its resonance. Though I see the modern vendors of cornflakes are not shy of ascribing the future problems to Brexit as much as anything else.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,679
    DavidL said:

    A lot of weird things happen on PB but finding my morning thread littered with shields of bustards is definitely up there.

    I caught buses to three of the bustard shield towns yesterday, and I'm going on a bus to a fourth one today.

    I feel like I ought to try to do the other two over the weekend..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    Astonishing that when attacked with things like this, BJ mumbles he is sorry before switching back into bragging about how marvellous everything is. He is such an amoral prick - as are the remaining people still supporting him.
    "world-beating queues"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    Applicant said:

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    True enough - but there's a world of difference between "low profile" and "secret".
    In Scotland the top ones are government enforcers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited June 16
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
    When I attended A&E a couple of months back with broken ribs, which I was told I HAD to have checked because of potential impactive lung damage, there were TWO doctors working in A&E ... with 65 patients waiting, which rose to over 100.

    The wait time went up from 3.5 hours to 4.5 hours and then over 8 hours. At which point I gave up.

    Don't have a medical emergency in Britain.
    Good morning

    Your last sentence sums up the state of the NHS across the UK

    For all the anecdotes from England many similar ones can be referenced from Wales and Scotland, both of which are the responsibility of the Welsh and Scottish governments

    I would just say I do not know the answer to the complexity of the NHS and it's demands
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    Scott_xP said:

    I know he’s got the shortest of straws this morning but I do feel someone should have warned Dominic Raab that we can all hear him
    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1537336047645827072

    Presumably referring to this?

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1537321764493066240

    "'Hand on heart, do you believe this Govt always operates ethically?' - @skynewsniall


    "Yes I do", says Deputy PM Dominic Raab - adding 'do we make mistakes? It happens, we're human, we're fallible'."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Do we still think the MPC will come out with 0.25% tomorrow?

    At least, quite likely 0.5%.

    0.5% would crash the economy. the impact on mortgage owners would be immense

    BoE has been quietly rowing back on its language on interest rates
    That isn't in the BoE's remit and it's why Bailey has no credibility with the markets. They keep worrying about the economy and not the fucking rate of inflation which is destroying the economy. Fuck the landlords and housing speculators that will get burned by rate rises.
    Owner occupiers will be burnt far more seriously than landlords; they (you?) get far more subsidies, and mortgage far more heavily.

    LLs are long-term investors/business people who will wait it out.
    What subsidies?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
    From the reports, it looks as though he may well have been (unlike most nuts with guns) genuinely mentally ill.
    I'd take a very different message from this than do you. This is not large parts of the Democratic Party (encouraged by their leader) attempting to subvert the Democratic process.
    Rather it's an illustration of why the US needs to do something about its gun problem.
    He may well be but there has been little coverage of the attempt. Certainly far less from the national press than you would have expected if it was a Justice of the left.

    I disagree with your main point though. Kavanaugh’s been targeted because he is seen as the one most likely to bend to pressure. It’s why his wife has been sent messages by pro-abortion groups saying we know where your kids go to school and his house details publicised (as they have for the other Justices who want to get rid of RvW).

    It’s a clear attempt to use the threat of violence to sway the Justices’ decision and, in this case, the one seen as the most pliable. The condemnation of what has gone on from the Administration has been tepid. And, of course, good old Chuck Schumer who talked about the Justices reaping what they sow has been quiet.

    Read “Why Nations Fail”. A clear message is that a society declines when both sides feel as though the other side will not play fair when it comes to the question of ruling. If you think this is just a GOP problem, think again.
    The US is in a seriously bad place politically.

    A small minority with extreme opinions on each side are dominating the debate, the polarisation encouraged by media and especially social media. People no longer believe that their mainstream political opponents are good people, and are too quick to assign the bad faith and base motives of the extremists to everyone who disagrees.

    Oh, and we are expecting the Supreme Court verdict on Roe v Wade in the next 24 hours, which is unlikely to help things, to put it mildly. In the past few weeks there has a range of opinions from politicians on the subject - ranging from miscarriage should be illegal, to infanticide should be legal.

    I don’t know how it happens, but everyone involved in US politics needs to take a step back from the brink. The last few years have already seen sporadic political violence, there has to be genuine concern it might escalate further.
    I think that we might well be heading into a period where the tension between the SC and the President/Congress is as severe as it was in the 1930s during Roosevelt's first term. He ultimately had to back off then but that was an age when deference was much greater. The institutions of the US are much weaker today as Trump demonstrated all too clearly on January 6th.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347

    Scott_xP said:

    🟠Scholz, Macron and Draghi on a train from the Polish border on their way to Kyiv.

    The three EU leaders will meet today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Photo by Italian paper La Repubblica

    https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06/16/news/ucraina_draghi_macron_scholz_kiev_visita_viaggio_guerra-354107572/?ref=tgpr https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1537306088562991104/photo/1






    How badly does BoZo want to be in that picture today...

    1 on 1 meetings are more valuable than group sessions.
    Not if the 1 on 1 meetings are to tell him "Be reasonable. man. It's been trashed, there's no point in getting the Donbas back. Oh - and that ammunition you so badly need...?"
    That would be valuable to know…
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
    When I attended A&E a couple of months back with broken ribs, which I was told I HAD to have checked because of potential impactive lung damage, there were TWO doctors working in A&E ... with 65 patients waiting, which rose to over 100.

    The wait time went up from 3.5 hours to 4.5 hours and then over 8 hours. At which point I gave up.

    Don't have a medical emergency in Britain.
    Neil Kinnock.....I warn you...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QPhMVbleU0
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
    Are there still capacity limitations from covid in hospitals?

    Part of the issue is the need to sped up the outflow of patients to care homes etc - but that has different budget holders.

    But simplistically you must have one of:

    - more patients coming in
    - Less capacity
    - Operations/recovery taking longer
    - Fewer patients leaving

    Which in your view is the key driver?(Obviously all of the above are important but they need different solutions)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,925
    Royal Ascot Tip, Mums Tipple in the 6.10 , its currently 40/1.

    Running off just 96 in a handicap.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ambulance waits: 'Can you please tell them to hurry up or I shall be dead'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61791151

    Spoiler: he died. This in Tory heartland Cotswolds.

    I don’t know this case specific but the issue is the GP service is useless in too many areas. You need out of hours coverage. Otherwise non urgent cases clog A&E - with results like this (AIUI the delay was caused by the knock on effect of a full A&E delaying unloading)
    No the problem in A and E is not the minor stuff. That can wait in the waiting room, and is a bit tedious, but doesn’t stop ambulances unloading. The problem with the ambulances is that the major bays are full, and often the corridors with trolleys with patients needing admission, but no beds in the hospital.

    The problem in A and E is not the front door (indeed that is why it exists as a department!) but rather the backdoor to the hospital.
    When I attended A&E a couple of months back with broken ribs, which I was told I HAD to have checked because of potential impactive lung damage, there were TWO doctors working in A&E ... with 65 patients waiting, which rose to over 100.

    The wait time went up from 3.5 hours to 4.5 hours and then over 8 hours. At which point I gave up.

    Don't have a medical emergency in Britain.
    Good morning

    Your last sentence sums up the state of the NHS across the UK

    For all the anecdotes from England many similar ones can be referenced from Wales and Scotland, both of which are the responsibility of the Welsh and Scottish governments

    I would just say I do not know the answer to the complexity of the NHS and it's demands
    Brexit's to blame and Scotland didn't vote Brexit. Don't blame the Scots. They're our way out
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think the LDs are 2% behind at all. I think they're ahead by miles.
    LD propaganda.

    What I was thinking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,868
    edited June 16
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if this has been noticed before:

    DeSantis is now favourite on PredictIt for the Republican nomination, ahead of Trump.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

    Someone tell Trump, he will immediately seek to destroy DeSantis, hopefully undermining them both.
    BF is holding the line. Trump still clear fav.
    As he will be.

    On a slightly related topic, I’m more perturbed that the attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice doesn’t seem to worry that many PBers who express their concern about the way the States is going….
    The attempt didn't sound as though it was at all close to being successful, and the US has a long record of assassinations of its Presidents.

    Maybe it did represent a qualitative change in the level of political violence, but I don't really see that.
    The qualitative change in political violence in the USA was the Jan 6 attempted coup by a mob incited by the defeated President. There has been no similar event in an established democracy in modern times, yet some US Republicans try to hand wave about it.

    A mere unsuccessful assassination attempt in a country with more guns than people is marginal in comparison. To be deplored, but a whole different order of wrong.

    It beggars belief that the inciter of such violence is the favorite for the Republican nomination again.
    The person who wanted to assassinate Kavanaugh was making a deliberate attempt to change an outcome they didn’t like - if Kavanaugh had been killed, then Roe v Wade would likely stay as a 5-4 decision became a 4-4 one and the status quo held. And, of course, Kavanaugh’s successor would be chosen by Biden and with the Senate still (for now) until Democrat control.

    It was the same motivation as drove people on Jan 6th ie people who wanted to change an outcome they didn’t like. That’s different from historic assassinations, which have not such motivating factors usually.

    I think it quite disturbing that you and @LostPassword seem to be going down the route of “yeah, it’s bad but nothing really to worry about”. I’m not sure you would have had the same reaction if it was a Kagan or Sotomayor targeted to bring about a similar outcome on a hot topic on the opposite side.
    From the reports, it looks as though he may well have been (unlike most nuts with guns) genuinely mentally ill.
    I'd take a very different message from this than do you. This is not large parts of the Democratic Party (encouraged by their leader) attempting to subvert the Democratic process.
    Rather it's an illustration of why the US needs to do something about its gun problem.
    He may well be but there has been little coverage of the attempt. Certainly far less from the national press than you would have expected if it was a Justice of the left.

    I disagree with your main point though. Kavanaugh’s been targeted because he is seen as the one most likely to bend to pressure. It’s why his wife has been sent messages by pro-abortion groups saying we know where your kids go to school and his house details publicised (as they have for the other Justices who want to get rid of RvW).

    It’s a clear attempt to use the threat of violence to sway the Justices’ decision and, in this case, the one seen as the most pliable. The condemnation of what has gone on from the Administration has been tepid. And, of course, good old Chuck Schumer who talked about the Justices reaping what they sow has been quiet.

    Read “Why Nations Fail”. A clear message is that a society declines when both sides feel as though the other side will not play fair when it comes to the question of ruling. If you think this is just a GOP problem, think again.
    The US is in a seriously bad place politically.

    A small minority with extreme opinions on each side are dominating the debate, the polarisation encouraged by media and especially social media. People no longer believe that their mainstream political opponents are good people, and are too quick to assign the bad faith and base motives of the extremists to everyone who disagrees.

    Oh, and we are expecting the Supreme Court verdict on Roe v Wade in the next 24 hours, which is unlikely to help things, to put it mildly. In the past few weeks there has a range of opinions from politicians on the subject - ranging from miscarriage should be illegal, to infanticide should be legal.

    I don’t know how it happens, but everyone involved in US politics needs to take a step back from the brink. The last few years have already seen sporadic political violence, there has to be genuine concern it might escalate further.
    I think that we might well be heading into a period where the tension between the SC and the President/Congress is as severe as it was in the 1930s during Roosevelt's first term. He ultimately had to back off then but that was an age when deference was much greater. The institutions of the US are much weaker today as Trump demonstrated all too clearly on January 6th.
    I think we end up with a much-weakened Federal government, and a reversal of the accumulation of power to the centre that’s occurred in the past few decades.

    The overturning of RvW will be the start of that process, of delegating especially contentious moral issues back to the States themselves, rather than coming down on one side of an argument.

    The biggest single issue the country needs to grasp, IMHO, is mental health and drugs. There’s millions of young people completely checked out of normal society, aided by social media and both legal and illegal drugs.

    The whole federal political system will break in a couple of months, with the election likely at this point to result is loss of both Houses for the Dems, leaving Biden as a lame duck.
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