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The LDs claim to be just 2% behind in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 20 in General
imageThe LDs claim to be just 2% behind in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

The LDs in the Devon by-election have issued internal polling based on thousands of separate contacts with voters in the constituency which they claim has them just 2% behind the Tories. This has the Tories on 46% with the LDs on 44%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,804
    First. LDs seem to have magical by-election powers and their shoelaces tied together elsewhere.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    MRDA.
  • The Tories ought to lose this seat. It's classic Blue Wall.

    But I am not confident.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    Uncanny how these polls consistently understate the LD position. Quite uncanny.

    I am only surprised not to see some kind of abstract, graphic representation of the respective vote shares.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    Applicant said:

    MRDA.

    Gave you a like. After going through this list and figuring it out.

    https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/MRDA

    Not Missouri Round Dance Association.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    edited June 15
    biggles said:

    I just can’t picture that sort of gap. Have the LibDems offered any visual aids?

    Looks like we will have to make do with more primitive visual aids.

    As they say in the ed biz.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIKGV2cTgqA
  • Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,616
    Lol. The LDs would claim they were only 2% behind if their internal polling showed them to be 80% ahead. Classic by election tactics.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,266
    edited June 15
    Didn't the Lib Dems claim to be 2% behind 1 week before the Chesham and Amersham byelection?

    Edit - no it was 4% 2 days before https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/15/city-am-reporting-that-internal-ld-polling-has-the-party-4-behind-in-chesham-and-amersham/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    edited June 15
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    MRDA.

    Gave you a like. After going through this list and figuring it out.

    https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/MRDA

    Not Missouri Round Dance Association.
    Deleted - oops
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    I forgot the most important element of his crime. He's openly gay and an ex Olympic fencer.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,806
    Starmer's spokesman has declined to say whether Labour would cancel the Rwanda policy if in government, though deeply critical of the policy's cost and efficiency. But declines to clarify if Starmer believes it is morally wrong.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,012
    Is there anyone who the Lib Dems are saying don't have a chance of victory?

    It would be helpful to know.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    edited June 15
    Election Maps UK has tweeted this out like it was an actual properly done poll. Fool.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,354
    edited June 15

    Starmer's spokesman has declined to say whether Labour would cancel the Rwanda policy if in government, though deeply critical of the policy's cost and efficiency. But declines to clarify if Starmer believes it is morally wrong.

    Doesn't that imply he'd try to make it work more effectively?

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,804

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    I find that the identity of the judge not being a matter of public record far more chilling.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,468

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    I forgot the most important element of his crime. He's openly gay and an ex Olympic fencer.


    Sounds like he’d have excellent stories after a few beers. There’s some bios that just make you want to meet someone.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939

    Is there anyone who the Lib Dems are saying don't have a chance of victory?

    It would be helpful to know.

    Im more interested in knowing who can win here. Especially if its a single candidate that alone has a chance against the incumbant party. I'd like it expressed visually, but inaccurately, and be based on some gross assumptions.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,494

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
  • Hornytown always seems an LD sort of place to me
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    True enough - but there's a world of difference between "low profile" and "secret".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    I can only work with the material in front of me
  • algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
  • Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    I find myself agreeing with you more than people on my own side, what on Earth has happened to politics?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,804

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
    Nonsense. Judges do their job and they wlll be defended in that by all of us. Justice must be a matter of record.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975
    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    No surprise from the LD by election team to say it is close ahead of a final push. Though I think Tiverton and Honiton is one at the moment
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    IshmaelZ said:
    Nicola Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government secures the legal approval to stage it.

    "if"...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988

    The Tories ought to lose this seat. It's classic Blue Wall.

    But I am not confident.

    It isn't really classic blue wall ie a Tory Remain seat, Tiverton and Honiton was 57% Leave
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

    That may need to be put to a PANEL of judges, or anyone who holds an appropriate POST
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

    That may need to be put to a PANEL of judges, or anyone who holds an appropriate POST
    It'll be a whitewash.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,499

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
    Nice try but 100% misreading of the post.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Nail bite no more...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    edited June 15

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Hants beat Yorks by 2 wickets, and I believe that sends them top.

    (Edit: no, 3 pts behind Surrey. I must have miscounted...)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Nail bite no more...
    Fancy Hampshire for the championship this year. You heard it here first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    Many thanks to cyclefree for the last header. Clear and to the point, in particular addressing the oft utilised 'you have no alternative plan' riposte.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    Nicola Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government secures the legal approval to stage it.

    "if"...
    There's no real downside for her government. Either it gets it, or it gets a row about it, which it would welcome, much as the UK government is loving all this Rwanda stuff.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    ComRes puts us very firmly in mid single figures lead
    Tories perhaps off their base level and crawling back towards mid 30s?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    I can only work with the material in front of me
    The material is pine usually I think, isn’t it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

    That may need to be put to a PANEL of judges, or anyone who holds an appropriate POST
    Far be it from me to criticise your post and rail against it...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    When people overreact so much to rulings made against them (even when it is the result of poorly drafted legislation) to the point of wanting to junk entire principles and institutions, it is in the first place a very bad sign, but also generally shows claims to historical principle are, let's say, misplaced.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,468

    ComRes puts us very firmly in mid single figures lead
    Tories perhaps off their base level and crawling back towards mid 30s?

    I would be interested to know how much of the movements within each series of polls is undecided “former” Tories “coming home”.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,207

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    Applicant said:

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Hants beat Yorks by 2 wickets, and I believe that sends them top.

    (Edit: no, 3 pts behind Surrey. I must have miscounted...)
    Big Lanky run chase on to make it three way.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,048
    Just 2% BEHIND?

    LibDems LOSING here?
  • algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
    Nice try but 100% misreading of the post.

    Do you think the Mail want anything other than abuse of this person? You are honest and I can trust in what you're saying but you're amongst very bad company here.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,354
     
    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    I can only work with the material in front of me
    The material is pine usually I think, isn’t it?
    Pine is not elm.

    (Nerdish joke from the 90s)

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,207
    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    Nicola Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government secures the legal approval to stage it.

    "if"...
    There's no real downside for her government. Either it gets it, or it gets a row about it, which it would welcome, much as the UK government is loving all this Rwanda stuff.
    Exactly. Tossing the base some red meat. Which is fair enough.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,207

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Nail bite no more...
    Fancy Hampshire for the championship this year. You heard it here first.

    Cheers for the tip
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,578

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

    That may need to be put to a PANEL of judges, or anyone who holds an appropriate POST
    Far be it from me to criticise your post and rail against it...
    Maybe just stop horsing around?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    biggles said:

    ComRes puts us very firmly in mid single figures lead
    Tories perhaps off their base level and crawling back towards mid 30s?

    I would be interested to know how much of the movements within each series of polls is undecided “former” Tories “coming home”.
    Most movement to Tory will be, they arent attractung new boys!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,048
    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    No Tory poll leads for SIX MONTHS and 9 DAYS - @MrEd please explain!
    @HYUFD please explain!
    @bigjohnowls please explain!
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Hants beat Yorks by 2 wickets, and I believe that sends them top.

    (Edit: no, 3 pts behind Surrey. I must have miscounted...)
    Big Lanky run chase on to make it three way.
    28 needed off 9, five wickets left. Should be very comfortable.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    geoffw said:

     

    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    I can only work with the material in front of me
    The material is pine usually I think, isn’t it?
    Pine is not elm.

    (Nerdish joke from the 90s)

    GNU's not Unix.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    The anonymity and impersonal nature of justice should be one of its strengths. It's one of the reasons I have concerns about Restorative Justice generally, and today's idea about constantly informing victims of crime about the progress through the penal system of the perpetrator of the crime. It introduces too much "personality" and individuality into what should be a neutral process - all it will do is expand the possibility of long-held grudges and vendettas, rather than society drawing a line under the matter.
    I think it was in one of the Secret Barrister's books, unpopular though they will be in many quarters for their various polemics, where they talked about there being too much emphasis on victims. They can sound harsh and cold, but people can take it too far, if for instance they think taking cases with little prospect of success to court because victims deserve a day in court as an example. Or in effect giving grieving family groups veto power over composition of public inquiries, when I would argue I have little idea what would make for a good inquiry member, particularly if I have already made up my mind abotu who is responsible. It can seem weird, but once it is a matter of public justice the wishes of the individual might be relevant, but not primary.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,048
    On topic - what @Cyclefree said! :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,806
    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    Quite a good result for Lab although any other leader would be 20 points ahead obvs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,048

    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    Quite a good result for Lab although any other leader would be 20 points ahead obvs.
    No Tory poll leads for SIX MONTHS and 9 DAYS - @MrEd please explain!
    @HYUFD please explain!
    @bigjohnowls please explain!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,139
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    Nicola Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government secures the legal approval to stage it.

    "if"...
    All Nicola Sturgeon announced yesterday was her intention to continue to keep talking about promising a second Referendum next year, its become an annual event to keep the SNP membership from getting too restless... I suspect yesterday's Independence PR stunt inside and outside Holyrood was more about launching Angus Robertson's leadership campaign to succeed her, and I predict that there is now more chance of Nicola Sturgeon standing down than an Indy Ref happening next year.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    IshmaelZ said:

    Uncanny how these polls consistently understate the LD position. Quite uncanny.

    I am only surprised not to see some kind of abstract, graphic representation of the respective vote shares.

    It probably shouldn’t be called a poll. What do you think of when you hear that, proper and regulated poll or a gut feel from a party that is basically a lie from its spin team to get the vote out.

    We had this discussion with MarqueeMark the other day, the conclusion being the libdems saying just two behind any day now was inevitable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    Applicant said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Hants beat Yorks by 2 wickets, and I believe that sends them top.

    (Edit: no, 3 pts behind Surrey. I must have miscounted...)
    Big Lanky run chase on to make it three way.
    28 needed off 9, five wickets left. Should be very comfortable.
    Still would be a big target to get.
    Wonder if Captains are going to have to re-think their targets? To declare and set 329 off 100 didn't seem unreasonable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,970
    edited June 15
    In a COMPLETELY mad town in the “winelands” of the Armenian Caucasus, where the only person that speaks English, it seems, is “Varndan”, the 7 year old son of the hotel owner. Everyone else just shrugs and gently laughs by way of saying sorry. Armenians are really nice: friendly, polite, amiable, fairly sensible drivers, which is great as I have to concentrate every second so as to avoid the ginormous, car-killing pot holes

    When the Armenians say “winelands” they mean a series of hideous post-Soviet towns made mainly of poor cement and worse concrete, hidden away in stunning red rock canyons (like Arizona) where the higher slopes are blushed with poppies and every other street has some lovely woman, amidst the rubble

    The wine is excellent; they claim these steep smoky valleys are the the birthplace of wine. It is a frequently ugly, occasionally sublime and generally compelling place
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    No Tory poll leads for SIX MONTHS and 9 DAYS - @MrEd please explain!
    @HYUFD please explain!
    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    I guess Sunil is sorry he couldn’t resist it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,207

    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    No Tory poll leads for SIX MONTHS and 9 DAYS - @MrEd please explain!
    @HYUFD please explain!
    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    BJ a fairly crap PM probably explains it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    It's almost as if the Lib Dems contrive numbers that just might encourage tactical voting or turnout of their supporters. But surely such an upstanding group of people would not resort to such chicanery. Repeatedly.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,804
    Leon said:

    In a COMPLETELY mad town in the “winelands” of the Armenian Caucasus, where the only person that speaks English, it seems, is “Varndan”, the 7 year old son of the hotel owner. Everyone else just shrugs and gently laughs by way of saying sorry. Armenians are really nice: friendly, polite, amiable, fairly sensible drivers, which is great as I have to concentrate every second so as to avoid the ginormous, car-killing pot holes

    When the Armenians say “winelands” they mean a series of hideous post-Soviet towns made mainly of poor cement and worse concrete, hidden away in stunning red rock canyons (like Arizona) where the higher slopes are blushed with poppies and every other street has some lovely woman, amidst the rubble

    The wine is excellent; they claim these steep smoky valleys are the the birthplace of wine. It is a frequently ugly, occasionally sublime and generally compelling place

    You're on a most excellent mission to collect evidence to undermine the French :)

    What could be more noble!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,499

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
    Nice try but 100% misreading of the post.

    Do you think the Mail want anything other than abuse of this person? You are honest and I can trust in what you're saying but you're amongst very bad company here.
    I don't read the Mail but I have read 1984.

    Two things can both be right at the same time: Supporting public justice being done by identifiable judges (a long UK tradition, even in NI in the bad old days) and opposing abuse of those same people.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 15

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    I agree with you Woolie, comres last was a bit of an outlier.

    I’ve noted a few times the Comres polling baffles me, how do they get the greens so low when others don’t? Answer is they are clearly adding a splash of green to their Labour scores. What they are though is very consistent, apart from an outlier last time, still around margins of error type outlier of which this poll is reverting back so fools gold movement for Tories, they are consistent on the gap of 6, a high Labour of 40, a low green, a low Libdem, and a higher Tory share. Very consistent all year with those figures.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    edited June 15
    DavidL said:

    It's almost as if the Lib Dems contrive numbers that just might encourage tactical voting or turnout of their supporters. But surely such an upstanding group of people would not resort to such chicanery. Repeatedly.

    We need it closer to get turnout up.
    Phone a shit load of 2019 tories.
    Release the kraken.
    Quietly arrange cheesy photo op in Tiverton with a giant orange hammer and Sir Ed for the 24th
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,318
    kjh said:

    Lol. The LDs would claim they were only 2% behind if their internal polling showed them to be 80% ahead. Classic by election tactics.

    Or 11% behind.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939

    IshmaelZ said:

    Uncanny how these polls consistently understate the LD position. Quite uncanny.

    I am only surprised not to see some kind of abstract, graphic representation of the respective vote shares.

    It probably shouldn’t be called a poll. What do you think of when you hear that, proper and regulated poll or a gut feel from a party that is basically a lie from its spin team to get the vote out.

    We had this discussion with MarqueeMark the other day, the conclusion being the libdems saying just two behind any day now was inevitable.
    Yes they are either home and dry or nowhere. The result will be 15 points lead for one or the other
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047

    Best thing in the world, premade campari soda
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    Nail biter at the Rose bowl. Hants need 7 with just two wickets left..

    Hants beat Yorks by 2 wickets, and I believe that sends them top.

    (Edit: no, 3 pts behind Surrey. I must have miscounted...)
    Big Lanky run chase on to make it three way.
    28 needed off 9, five wickets left. Should be very comfortable.
    Still would be a big target to get.
    Wonder if Captains are going to have to re-think their targets? To declare and set 329 off 100 didn't seem unreasonable.
    Did they not read yesterday’s cricket news?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,030
    edited June 15
    If the LDs were 10 points ahead they'd still say they were 2 points behind to get the activists to visit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,048

    MrEd said:

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    @CorrectHorseBattery please explain!

    (sorry Horse, I couldn't resist it :smile: )
    No Tory poll leads for SIX MONTHS and 9 DAYS - @MrEd please explain!
    @HYUFD please explain!
    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    I guess Sunil is sorry he couldn’t resist it.
    Although there is the possibility I'll have to change my avatar in the coming months...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    The anonymity and impersonal nature of justice should be one of its strengths. It's one of the reasons I have concerns about Restorative Justice generally, and today's idea about constantly informing victims of crime about the progress through the penal system of the perpetrator of the crime. It introduces too much "personality" and individuality into what should be a neutral process - all it will do is expand the possibility of long-held grudges and vendettas, rather than society drawing a line under the matter.
    Quite. If I were, for instance, burgled or mugged and was asked to express my views on punishment, I would say that it was for the State as represented by the Judge to deal with that, and the Jury to deal with guilt. I would feel profoundly unhappy at doing anything other than factual witness (e.g. on what was stolen, what my in jury was and how long it took me to recover).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,840
    edited June 15
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    It is incredibly depressing how many upvotes this post got. We are advocating abusing judges.
    Nice try but 100% misreading of the post.

    Do you think the Mail want anything other than abuse of this person? You are honest and I can trust in what you're saying but you're amongst very bad company here.
    I don't read the Mail but I have read 1984.

    Two things can both be right at the same time: Supporting public justice being done by identifiable judges (a long UK tradition, even in NI in the bad old days) and opposing abuse of those same people.


    The alternative to open justice is secret justice.

    It seem to me quite clear which is worse.

    And if abuse is incited, I think these days we have a whole bucket-load of offences which can apply.

    Defining a Newspaper as a malicious communication is an interesting one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,030

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    It is normal to know the name of judges involved in cases. It's called open justice.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,265
    DavidL said:

    It's almost as if the Lib Dems contrive numbers that just might encourage tactical voting or turnout of their supporters. But surely such an upstanding group of people would not resort to such chicanery. Repeatedly.

    Come on, David - it's hardly chicanery. It's called politics and a former Prime Minister once described it as "rough trade".

    It's a campaigning technique - we've all seen it before. It may be the Conservatives have used something similar in Copeland or perhaps Batley & Spen.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    People wouldn't steal gays so much if these people didn't create a market for them
    That'd be a fence, shirley, not a fencer?
    It's quite hard to get fencing done at this time of year. One may have to overlook their sexuality just this once.
    There might be an ideal time to get fencing done but you can't necessarily picket.
    For that, you should be de-fence-strated.

    Ah, my coat.

    That may need to be put to a PANEL of judges, or anyone who holds an appropriate POST
    Far be it from me to criticise your post and rail against it...
    Let alone cap it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    Indeed, the Brexit idiots started the ball rolling, remember this when Mail complained one judge's crime was to be a gay fencer.


    A fence ? Like Arfur Daley.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,476
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    In a COMPLETELY mad town in the “winelands” of the Armenian Caucasus, where the only person that speaks English, it seems, is “Varndan”, the 7 year old son of the hotel owner. Everyone else just shrugs and gently laughs by way of saying sorry. Armenians are really nice: friendly, polite, amiable, fairly sensible drivers, which is great as I have to concentrate every second so as to avoid the ginormous, car-killing pot holes

    When the Armenians say “winelands” they mean a series of hideous post-Soviet towns made mainly of poor cement and worse concrete, hidden away in stunning red rock canyons (like Arizona) where the higher slopes are blushed with poppies and every other street has some lovely woman, amidst the rubble

    The wine is excellent; they claim these steep smoky valleys are the the birthplace of wine. It is a frequently ugly, occasionally sublime and generally compelling place

    You're on a most excellent mission to collect evidence to undermine the French :)

    What could be more noble!
    Rot.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,376
    Andy_JS said:

    If the LDs were 10 points ahead they'd still say they were 2 points behind to get the activists to visit.

    tut tut, are you calling the LDs liars?

    I hope you have a source for that, (apart from the 2010 manifesto obvs)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939

    Com Res reherds

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 10-12 Jun.
    Changes w/ 27-29 May.

    I agree with you Woolie, comres last was a bit of an outlier.

    I’ve noted a few times the Comres polling baffles me, how do they get the greens so low when others don’t? Answer is they are clearly adding a splash of green to their Labour scores. What they are though is very consistent, apart from an outlier last time, still around margins of error type outlier of which this poll is reverting back so fools gold movement for Tories, they are consistent on the gap of 6, a high Labour of 40, a low green, a low Libdem, and a higher Tory share. Very consistent all year with those figures.
    Back to 54 for the 'progressives' too of course.
    Green 4 seems more realistic for a GE, especially as they may not stand everywhere.
    LDs a little disappointing given the redfield.
    We have been circling these sorts of figures since the crossover in late 2021
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044
    fitalass said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    Nicola Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government secures the legal approval to stage it.

    "if"...
    All Nicola Sturgeon announced yesterday was her intention to continue to keep talking about promising a second Referendum next year, its become an annual event to keep the SNP membership from getting too restless... I suspect yesterday's Independence PR stunt inside and outside Holyrood was more about launching Angus Robertson's leadership campaign to succeed her, and I predict that there is now more chance of Nicola Sturgeon standing down than an Indy Ref happening next year.
    I agree and I think @malcolmg has called it correctly. Again
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Applicant said:

    algarkirk said:

    Does nobody find the idea that we're going to find the individual judge's name so that they can be given abuse, really chilling?

    About as chilling as the thought of justice being administered by someone whose identity is kept secret?
    The idea is that justices should have their identity low profile, hence the partial reason/ tradition of the wigs and funny clothes. They analyse the law and give an interpretation. Impartiality of the judiciary is something that Britain (before it became a laughing stock with a clown for PM) gave to the world, well at least, the "free" world, and it is a tradition that was extended to Europe when we were a founder and signatory to the ECHR. Populist tossers would have judges pilloried for interpreting the bad law that has been made by a half wit government, when the real culprits are the idiots that inspired and passed the bad law or policy.
    True enough - but there's a world of difference between "low profile" and "secret".
    I can see nothing wrong with secrecy provided the adjudication makes sense. This adjudication does make sense, it simply says if there is to be a judicial review no deportations should go ahead before that point. Perfectly logical, except in the head of Nigel fucking Farage.
This discussion has been closed.