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Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Ok off topic and one for others particularly @Dura_Ace to roll around laughing at (an engineer friend of mine did): For various reasons I am thinking about getting a classic car (of sorts). I am incompetent at anything practical and don't want to spend much so was thinking of a mint Panther Lima.

    Comments?

    Someone might need to check @Dura_Ace hasn't died laughing.

    For fuck's sake...

    We'll leave aside the fact that they were total crap when they were new.

    People frequently solicit my advice about buying an older car and I'll you what I always tell them.

    Do not buy anything that has no aftermarket support. The aftermarket support for Panthers is probably nothing more than various group therapy sessions for men in cardigans who had one once. Vauxhall mechanicals of that era are far less well supported than the equivalent Fords.

    All the money and arseache in 'classic' car projects is in the bodywork because you can't do it yourself and it makes little sense do it in small chunks. Get the best and least rusty body you can find.

    If you want that type of car get a first Gen MX-5 / Miata / Eunos Roadster. They are simple to work on, fun to drive, boringly reliable and every single part you could ever want is readily available in a multitude of forms in the aftermarket.

    Panther Lima... fuck me...
    Well I am going to take that as an endorsement from @Dura_Ace with only one 'fuck's sake' and one 'fuck me' in it and I particularly liked @DecrepiterJohnL pictures and telling me I will look like Noddy.

    Thanks for the feedback everyone. Not going to happen for awhile. Glad I provided some entertainment.

    @Dura_Ace are you ok or are you still in shock?

    They are very cheap so one does have to wonder why?
    They are cheap because nobody wants them. Nobody wants them because they are bad cars from a weird, defunct brand.
    You’re right on that one! MX-5, GT86, 986 Boxster, all cheap-ish fun and with huge aftermarket support behind them.
    I was disappointed that I hadn't heard from you @Sandpit until now. I will look into your suggestions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,505
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Senior party officials in Wales decided at a meeting this week to take steps to separate from the English Conservative Party.

    One source said that the partygate scandal was the "last straw" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/embarrassment-boris-johnson-tories-wales-mull-split-conservatives/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654928621-2

    They kept looking like being on the cusp of a major breakthrough in Wales, but that moment seems to have passed anyway.
    I am not surprised. I used to be a conservative-leaning voter, but I struggle to see how anyone can describe themselves as Conservatives these days. Nationalists masquerading under the name of a formerly successful party.....
    What is so very interesting about this is that it opens up the possibility of the Welsh Tories deciding for independence for Wales, if (for instance) that is the only way to have true Conservatism in the teeth of an eternal Johnsonite regime in London. Quite compatible; after all, our one true Tory happily voted both for the Welsh Tories and PC in the same election.
    I do not think that the Welsh will ever vote for independence. They have been subjugated for too long now.
    You're probably right, but support seems to be on the rise, how ever much HYUFD and Big_G want to bury their heads in the sand about that fact. Why look for reasons when you can just pretend nothing's happening?
    Maybe if you actually lived in Wales it would help

    It is not a subject that comes up but you carry on if it tickles your fantasy
    I didn't say it "comes up", I'm saying the polling for it has shown a rise for support. That's just a fact. I don't know why you and HYUFD have such difficulty approaching this fact. It won't hurt you, it's just a fact.
    The reason is it is entirely irrelevant to the Welsh political scene
    So if it's so irrelevant, why can't you just admit that the polling has shown a rise in support? And entirely harmless fact that you are furiously and resolutely refusing to look at.

    Personally I think you're wrong in saying that it's irrelevant, but we're into the realms of interpretation of facts here. If a quarter of Wales wants independence, and that number if drifting upwards, it tells us that something is either attracting them towards it or repelling them from the status quo. Wouldn't it be good to know what that is?
    You know my view; I think it's Boris. Which makes it even stranger that you're so resistant to the bare facts, because you allegedly agree with me that his leadership is a divisive problem that needs to be fixed by his removal from office. Maybe I'm wrong in my diagnosis, but we shouldn't be having such an argument about the symptoms which are right there in the polling, as plain as day.
    There was an increase but this has largely dropped back and certainly does not arise in political debate

    The debate is all around Boris and labour are the beneficiary as conservative mps face loosing all north wales seats

    I am not furious about it as it is an irrelevance and if it became an issue then that would be different

    Yesterday you accused me of laying flowers on Diana's death which is not only untrue but your dismissal of any form of sympathy for the family of the father and son killed in the TT was very unpleasant
    I've thought about my comments last night, and I've come to the conclusion that I still don't give a fuck.
    Ho, ho, bloody ho! Rude t***!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Senior party officials in Wales decided at a meeting this week to take steps to separate from the English Conservative Party.

    One source said that the partygate scandal was the "last straw" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/embarrassment-boris-johnson-tories-wales-mull-split-conservatives/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654928621-2

    They kept looking like being on the cusp of a major breakthrough in Wales, but that moment seems to have passed anyway.
    I am not surprised. I used to be a conservative-leaning voter, but I struggle to see how anyone can describe themselves as Conservatives these days. Nationalists masquerading under the name of a formerly successful party.....
    What is so very interesting about this is that it opens up the possibility of the Welsh Tories deciding for independence for Wales, if (for instance) that is the only way to have true Conservatism in the teeth of an eternal Johnsonite regime in London. Quite compatible; after all, our one true Tory happily voted both for the Welsh Tories and PC in the same election.
    I do not think that the Welsh will ever vote for independence. They have been subjugated for too long now.
    You're probably right, but support seems to be on the rise, how ever much HYUFD and Big_G want to bury their heads in the sand about that fact. Why look for reasons when you can just pretend nothing's happening?
    It isn't on the rise 80% of AMs are Unionists and the Nationalists cannot even get barely more than half the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain in 2016. That is pretty pathetic
    I said support for independence, not support for Plaid Cymru, dumbo.
    That IS support for independence.

    Show me one Welsh independence poll where Yes is anywhere near the 47% of Welsh voters who voted to Remain in the EU in 2016?
    You actually don't realise that people support independence without supporting Plaid? Despite the fact that support for independence is now above the level of support for Plaid Cymru?

    Also, I said support is up, not that it's near 50%, but since you ask there is one (outlier) poll that showed support at 46% excluding don't knows: https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Final_38028217-Wales-Poll-20210429_Private.pdf

    Also also, I said nothing about the Remain vote. That's your frame for looking at things; I have never said Remain was a driver for the rise.

    Honestly, you're all over the place trying to fight straw men, when the only thing you need to know is that:
    support for Welsh independence is up

    Give your head a little shake, you've got no focus at all. Get a coffee, look at the numbers, and stop being so obtuse.
    So you find ONE poll putting Yes on 42% including undecided so still 5% below even the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain.

    Yet we have a Tory PM in Boris who has delivered a hard Brexit and Welsh Nationalists cannot even get all Welsh Remainers to back them let alone any Welsh Leave voters. Pathetic!
    Yes, you told me to find ONE poll, and so I did. And I did that as a courtesy even though it's nothing to do with my point that Welsh independence support is up.

    You can't handle this conversation on my terms, so I tried it on your terms. And you still can't handle it.
    Which still could not even get to the 47% of Welsh voters who voted against Brexit. Pathetic.

    After Brexit never mind being up Welsh independence should be on 47% minimum, it isn't
    Wales voted for Brexit. I don't think even the most ardently fissiparous Welsh nationalist would argue that Wales should be independent from itself.
    52.5% of Wales did, 47.5% of Wales didn't.

    Given Brexit is supposed to have given momentum to Scottish independence and a united Ireland as both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against it (in fact far less than anti Brexiteers claim but that is their argument), then Brexit should also have given momentum to Welsh independence given 47% of Welsh voters voted against Brexit. Yet support for Welsh independence cannot even get that
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Senior party officials in Wales decided at a meeting this week to take steps to separate from the English Conservative Party.

    One source said that the partygate scandal was the "last straw" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/embarrassment-boris-johnson-tories-wales-mull-split-conservatives/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654928621-2

    They kept looking like being on the cusp of a major breakthrough in Wales, but that moment seems to have passed anyway.
    I am not surprised. I used to be a conservative-leaning voter, but I struggle to see how anyone can describe themselves as Conservatives these days. Nationalists masquerading under the name of a formerly successful party.....
    What is so very interesting about this is that it opens up the possibility of the Welsh Tories deciding for independence for Wales, if (for instance) that is the only way to have true Conservatism in the teeth of an eternal Johnsonite regime in London. Quite compatible; after all, our one true Tory happily voted both for the Welsh Tories and PC in the same election.
    I do not think that the Welsh will ever vote for independence. They have been subjugated for too long now.
    You're probably right, but support seems to be on the rise, how ever much HYUFD and Big_G want to bury their heads in the sand about that fact. Why look for reasons when you can just pretend nothing's happening?
    It isn't on the rise 80% of AMs are Unionists and the Nationalists cannot even get barely more than half the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain in 2016. That is pretty pathetic
    I said support for independence, not support for Plaid Cymru, dumbo.
    That IS support for independence.

    Show me one Welsh independence poll where Yes is anywhere near the 47% of Welsh voters who voted to Remain in the EU in 2016?
    You actually don't realise that people support independence without supporting Plaid? Despite the fact that support for independence is now above the level of support for Plaid Cymru?

    Also, I said support is up, not that it's near 50%, but since you ask there is one (outlier) poll that showed support at 46% excluding don't knows: https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Final_38028217-Wales-Poll-20210429_Private.pdf

    Also also, I said nothing about the Remain vote. That's your frame for looking at things; I have never said Remain was a driver for the rise.

    Honestly, you're all over the place trying to fight straw men, when the only thing you need to know is that:
    support for Welsh independence is up

    Give your head a little shake, you've got no focus at all. Get a coffee, look at the numbers, and stop being so obtuse.
    So you find ONE poll putting Yes on 42% including undecided so still 5% below even the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain.

    Yet we have a Tory PM in Boris who has delivered a hard Brexit and Welsh Nationalists cannot even get all Welsh Remainers to back them let alone any Welsh Leave voters. Pathetic!
    Yes, you told me to find ONE poll, and so I did. And I did that as a courtesy even though it's nothing to do with my point that Welsh independence support is up.

    You can't handle this conversation on my terms, so I tried it on your terms. And you still can't handle it.
    So HYUFD is insisting on playing your specified game of football to the rules of tiddlywinks, having found that suddenly wielding a caman does not yield the result he wants?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,505
    edited June 11
    @kjh

    @Sandpit is right GT86 is a great car, but you are probably starting at £10k plus for a high miler on an 11 plate.

    DA's first suggestion is hard to beat. Remember with any older car, keep £2k back for when it goes wrong.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,470
    Attention massed ranks of Love Island devotees.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/61769276
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    Wait! They have to apologise for honesty now????? Wow! :open_mouth:
    Just struck by the way in which the person responsible for the UK's digital strategy can't even remember, a week or two later,

    (a) where she was

    and/or

    (b) the difference between Blackpool and Brum - you'd think that this tower thingy, not to mention sea, sand and donkeys, would be a useful criterion, ditto canals and ring road in the latter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    No, if they don't have Tory MPs they don't count.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,916
    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Ok off topic and one for others particularly @Dura_Ace to roll around laughing at (an engineer friend of mine did): For various reasons I am thinking about getting a classic car (of sorts). I am incompetent at anything practical and don't want to spend much so was thinking of a mint Panther Lima.

    Comments?

    Someone might need to check @Dura_Ace hasn't died laughing.

    For fuck's sake...

    We'll leave aside the fact that they were total crap when they were new.

    People frequently solicit my advice about buying an older car and I'll you what I always tell them.

    Do not buy anything that has no aftermarket support. The aftermarket support for Panthers is probably nothing more than various group therapy sessions for men in cardigans who had one once. Vauxhall mechanicals of that era are far less well supported than the equivalent Fords.

    All the money and arseache in 'classic' car projects is in the bodywork because you can't do it yourself and it makes little sense do it in small chunks. Get the best and least rusty body you can find.

    If you want that type of car get a first Gen MX-5 / Miata / Eunos Roadster. They are simple to work on, fun to drive, boringly reliable and every single part you could ever want is readily available in a multitude of forms in the aftermarket.

    Panther Lima... fuck me...
    Well I am going to take that as an endorsement from @Dura_Ace with only one 'fuck's sake' and one 'fuck me' in it and I particularly liked @DecrepiterJohnL pictures and telling me I will look like Noddy.

    Thanks for the feedback everyone. Not going to happen for awhile. Glad I provided some entertainment.

    @Dura_Ace are you ok or are you still in shock?

    They are very cheap so one does have to wonder why?
    They are cheap because nobody wants them. Nobody wants them because they are bad cars from a weird, defunct brand.
    You’re right on that one! MX-5, GT86, 986 Boxster, all cheap-ish fun and with huge aftermarket support behind them.
    I was disappointed that I hadn't heard from you @Sandpit until now. I will look into your suggestions.
    I’ve been trying to watch cricket and F1 at the same time, while also cleaning the house as I’d promised wifey I’d do yesterday.

    Dura is right that you want a weekend car that has good community support. If you’ve got something there’s only a few dozen of, you’ll have a nightmare finding even basic consumable stuff like brakes and suspension, let alone bodywork or interior pieces.

    An MX-5 (Miata, Eunos) is the most bang for the buck you can have outside @SeanT’s favourite Bangkok brothel. Just make sure it’s not a rusty one!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Senior party officials in Wales decided at a meeting this week to take steps to separate from the English Conservative Party.

    One source said that the partygate scandal was the "last straw" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/embarrassment-boris-johnson-tories-wales-mull-split-conservatives/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654928621-2

    They kept looking like being on the cusp of a major breakthrough in Wales, but that moment seems to have passed anyway.
    I am not surprised. I used to be a conservative-leaning voter, but I struggle to see how anyone can describe themselves as Conservatives these days. Nationalists masquerading under the name of a formerly successful party.....
    What is so very interesting about this is that it opens up the possibility of the Welsh Tories deciding for independence for Wales, if (for instance) that is the only way to have true Conservatism in the teeth of an eternal Johnsonite regime in London. Quite compatible; after all, our one true Tory happily voted both for the Welsh Tories and PC in the same election.
    I do not think that the Welsh will ever vote for independence. They have been subjugated for too long now.
    You're probably right, but support seems to be on the rise, how ever much HYUFD and Big_G want to bury their heads in the sand about that fact. Why look for reasons when you can just pretend nothing's happening?
    It isn't on the rise 80% of AMs are Unionists and the Nationalists cannot even get barely more than half the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain in 2016. That is pretty pathetic
    I said support for independence, not support for Plaid Cymru, dumbo.
    That IS support for independence.

    Show me one Welsh independence poll where Yes is anywhere near the 47% of Welsh voters who voted to Remain in the EU in 2016?
    You actually don't realise that people support independence without supporting Plaid? Despite the fact that support for independence is now above the level of support for Plaid Cymru?

    Also, I said support is up, not that it's near 50%, but since you ask there is one (outlier) poll that showed support at 46% excluding don't knows: https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Final_38028217-Wales-Poll-20210429_Private.pdf

    Also also, I said nothing about the Remain vote. That's your frame for looking at things; I have never said Remain was a driver for the rise.

    Honestly, you're all over the place trying to fight straw men, when the only thing you need to know is that:
    support for Welsh independence is up

    Give your head a little shake, you've got no focus at all. Get a coffee, look at the numbers, and stop being so obtuse.
    So you find ONE poll putting Yes on 42% including undecided so still 5% below even the 47% of Welsh voters who voted Remain.

    Yet we have a Tory PM in Boris who has delivered a hard Brexit and Welsh Nationalists cannot even get all Welsh Remainers to back them let alone any Welsh Leave voters. Pathetic!
    Yes, you told me to find ONE poll, and so I did. And I did that as a courtesy even though it's nothing to do with my point that Welsh independence support is up.

    You can't handle this conversation on my terms, so I tried it on your terms. And you still can't handle it.
    Which still could not even get to the 47% of Welsh voters who voted against Brexit. Pathetic.

    After Brexit never mind being up Welsh independence should be on 47% minimum, it isn't
    Wales voted for Brexit. I don't think even the most ardently fissiparous Welsh nationalist would argue that Wales should be independent from itself.
    52.5% of Wales did, 47.5% of Wales didn't.

    Given Brexit is supposed to have given momentum to Scottish independence and a united Ireland as both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against it (in fact far less than anti Brexiteers claim but that is their argument), then Brexit should also have given momentum to Welsh independence given 47% of Welsh voters voted against Brexit. Yet support for Welsh independence cannot even get that
    Whoooosh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360
    Carnyx said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    Wait! They have to apologise for honesty now????? Wow! :open_mouth:
    Just struck by the way in which the person responsible for the UK's digital strategy can't even remember, a week or two later,

    (a) where she was

    and/or

    (b) the difference between Blackpool and Brum - you'd think that this tower thingy, not to mention sea, sand and donkeys, would be a useful criterion, ditto canals and ring road in the latter.
    Just possibly she was referring to the banality and utter interchangeability of Conferences. But hey, have a dig. Still a better point than the £11bn "lost" by Sunak.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,505
    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360
    Sandpit said:

    The weather gets so bad in Nottingham, that they even have a sponsor for the pitch cover!

    It gets a fair bit of TV coverage. The prospects of England being able to drag this match into a fourth day before their inevitable defeat are improving slightly with this delay.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    edited June 11
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Ok off topic and one for others particularly @Dura_Ace to roll around laughing at (an engineer friend of mine did): For various reasons I am thinking about getting a classic car (of sorts). I am incompetent at anything practical and don't want to spend much so was thinking of a mint Panther Lima.

    Comments?

    Someone might need to check @Dura_Ace hasn't died laughing.

    For fuck's sake...

    We'll leave aside the fact that they were total crap when they were new.

    People frequently solicit my advice about buying an older car and I'll you what I always tell them.

    Do not buy anything that has no aftermarket support. The aftermarket support for Panthers is probably nothing more than various group therapy sessions for men in cardigans who had one once. Vauxhall mechanicals of that era are far less well supported than the equivalent Fords.

    All the money and arseache in 'classic' car projects is in the bodywork because you can't do it yourself and it makes little sense do it in small chunks. Get the best and least rusty body you can find.

    If you want that type of car get a first Gen MX-5 / Miata / Eunos Roadster. They are simple to work on, fun to drive, boringly reliable and every single part you could ever want is readily available in a multitude of forms in the aftermarket.

    Panther Lima... fuck me...
    Well I am going to take that as an endorsement from @Dura_Ace with only one 'fuck's sake' and one 'fuck me' in it and I particularly liked @DecrepiterJohnL pictures and telling me I will look like Noddy.

    Thanks for the feedback everyone. Not going to happen for awhile. Glad I provided some entertainment.

    @Dura_Ace are you ok or are you still in shock?

    They are very cheap so one does have to wonder why?
    They are cheap because nobody wants them. Nobody wants them because they are bad cars from a weird, defunct brand.
    You’re right on that one! MX-5, GT86, 986 Boxster, all cheap-ish fun and with huge aftermarket support behind them.
    I was disappointed that I hadn't heard from you @Sandpit until now. I will look into your suggestions.
    I’ve been trying to watch cricket and F1 at the same time, while also cleaning the house as I’d promised wifey I’d do yesterday.

    Dura is right that you want a weekend car that has good community support. If you’ve got something there’s only a few dozen of, you’ll have a nightmare finding even basic consumable stuff like brakes and suspension, let alone bodywork or interior pieces.

    An MX-5 (Miata, Eunos) is the most bang for the buck you can have outside @SeanT’s favourite Bangkok brothel. Just make sure it’s not a rusty one!
    Cheers @Sandpit . I can't complain that you can't do 4 things at the same time when I can't do 2.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 150

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    You can't argue with facts. Boris is polarising. He has his supporters but those who dislike him dislike him so much they are willing to consider extraordinary measures, such as Welsh independence, to get rid of him.
    The naivety and stubborn complacency of his supporters, people like you, is part of what drives that too. You can't see how toxic he is even when presented with good evidence of it.

    This is why we need more, not less, boring politicians. Interesting types like Boris and Corbyn are centrifugal forces inside the electorate. It's not healthy to have everyone spinning out from the centre.
    I have to disagree on Welsh independence as there is no evidence that support for Plaid is gaining nor is is it a subject of normal political debate

    Indeed, it is irrelevant as labour are more popular than in a long time and that is your rejection of Boris vote, not Plaid
    You are misinterpreting a lack of support for Plaid (around 20%) as a lack of suppport for independence (around 30%). There was a surge of support a few years ago with the sudden growth of YesCymru - which descended into chaos and bickering - but now appears to be recovering. It does not have majority support yet - but is hardly irrelevant.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    Wait! They have to apologise for honesty now????? Wow! :open_mouth:
    Just struck by the way in which the person responsible for the UK's digital strategy can't even remember, a week or two later,

    (a) where she was

    and/or

    (b) the difference between Blackpool and Brum - you'd think that this tower thingy, not to mention sea, sand and donkeys, would be a useful criterion, ditto canals and ring road in the latter.
    Just possibly she was referring to the banality and utter interchangeability of Conferences. But hey, have a dig. Still a better point than the £11bn "lost" by Sunak.
    Bit early for that to kick in, though; and as for Mr Sunak's interest, I don't remember remarking on that at all. You must be confusing me with one of the PB Economists.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    Wait! They have to apologise for honesty now????? Wow! :open_mouth:
    Just struck by the way in which the person responsible for the UK's digital strategy can't even remember, a week or two later,

    (a) where she was

    and/or

    (b) the difference between Blackpool and Brum - you'd think that this tower thingy, not to mention sea, sand and donkeys, would be a useful criterion, ditto canals and ring road in the latter.
    Just possibly she was referring to the banality and utter interchangeability of Conferences. But hey, have a dig. Still a better point than the £11bn "lost" by Sunak.
    Bit early for that to kick in, though; and as for Mr Sunak's interest, I don't remember remarking on that at all. You must be confusing me with one of the PB Economists.
    It wasn't a go at you. More a follow up on my earlier rants. Apologies.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 150
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    Even on the recent Wales poll the Tories would still win more MPs in Wales than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005
    According to the recent opinion polls using new Westminster boundaries, Conservatives would equal their 1997 & 2001 success - winning zero seats across Wales. This is why Welsh Cons are panicking. Although their talent pool is incredibly poor.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Senior party officials in Wales decided at a meeting this week to take steps to separate from the English Conservative Party.

    One source said that the partygate scandal was the "last straw" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/embarrassment-boris-johnson-tories-wales-mull-split-conservatives/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654928621-2

    They kept looking like being on the cusp of a major breakthrough in Wales, but that moment seems to have passed anyway.
    I am not surprised. I used to be a conservative-leaning voter, but I struggle to see how anyone can describe themselves as Conservatives these days. Nationalists masquerading under the name of a formerly successful party.....
    What is so very interesting about this is that it opens up the possibility of the Welsh Tories deciding for independence for Wales, if (for instance) that is the only way to have true Conservatism in the teeth of an eternal Johnsonite regime in London. Quite compatible; after all, our one true Tory happily voted both for the Welsh Tories and PC in the same election.
    I do not think that the Welsh will ever vote for independence. They have been subjugated for too long now.
    You're probably right, but support seems to be on the rise, how ever much HYUFD and Big_G want to bury their heads in the sand about that fact. Why look for reasons when you can just pretend nothing's happening?
    Maybe if you actually lived in Wales it would help

    It is not a subject that comes up but you carry on if it tickles your fantasy
    I didn't say it "comes up", I'm saying the polling for it has shown a rise for support. That's just a fact. I don't know why you and HYUFD have such difficulty approaching this fact. It won't hurt you, it's just a fact.
    The reason is it is entirely irrelevant to the Welsh political scene
    So if it's so irrelevant, why can't you just admit that the polling has shown a rise in support? And entirely harmless fact that you are furiously and resolutely refusing to look at.

    Personally I think you're wrong in saying that it's irrelevant, but we're into the realms of interpretation of facts here. If a quarter of Wales wants independence, and that number is drifting upwards, it tells us that something is either attracting them towards it or repelling them from the status quo. Wouldn't it be good to know what that is?
    You know my view; I think it's Boris. Which makes it even stranger that you're so resistant to the bare facts, because you allegedly agree with me that his leadership is a divisive problem that needs to be fixed by his removal from office. Maybe I'm wrong in my diagnosis, but we shouldn't be having such an argument about the symptoms which are right there in the polling, as plain as day.
    Bug G wears union jack underpants
    To signal distress, you fly the flag upside down --> wear them on the head
    What should you do if you go commando?
    Have BigG complain about your disloyalty for not wearing Union Fleg keks?
    Why on earth would I do that

    I am Welsh with Welsh children and grandchildren and a Scots wife

    I could not be seen alive with anything as stupid as those
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Not to mention the Conservative MSPs on the Glasgow regional list.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,742
    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    Good news.

    Lowish demand, strong winds and sunlight mean 60% of our power is from wind or solar.

    If it keeps up for three weeks, the surfing industry and our beleaguered power generation system will be very happy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    edited June 11

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,367
    the saracheats are really well named
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    That was then, this is now and he is taking them to a bitter defeat - and sadly they seem to have been accomplices in this extraordinary act of self harm
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    Population = 3.14m in 2019, about 2.8m in 1984 so you've got to allow for an increase of over 10% in population.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    You said "more votes" not "higher voteshare". Not the same thing.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,905

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Utterly toxic to some, catnip to others.

    And we all sort of knew that all along- even at the height of his popularity he was more marmite than Heineken.

    The difference now is that there are more haters hating him more. The Conservative party is in the same miserable position as a raddled old addict who craves something that, deep down, even they know is destroying them.

    The only real answer is to check in to the Betty Ford Clinic of Opposition, but that has a waiting list of 2 years.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Finally got around to the story that Sunak had cost us £11bn by failing to insure our debt against a rise in interest rates. What absolute, unadulterated tripe it proves to be: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61754394

    Firstly, the premise is that we could have bought over £600bn of our gilts and then reissued them at lower rates. Absurd.
    Secondly, it claims that by having the borrowing through the BoE under the QE system we failed to lock in these lower rates. This ignores the fact that the government does not pay interest on the gilts held by the BoE, something that has saved over £120bn to date.

    The report does indicate that the authors of the report do themselves acknowledge this. It says:

    "But Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, tweeted that the "£11bn 'cost' should really be set against the £120bn 'benefit' that the QE process has so far yielded for the Exchequer".

    "To be fair to NIESR in their paper of last year they do acknowledge this - but this seems to have been drowned out today."

    So what has in fact has happened is that the distortion of the BoE buying up so much of our gilt issuance has meant that the longevity of the remainder has shortened a bit (since the gilts already issued have got nearer to maturity) meaning that when we roll over this debt we will have to do so at a higher interest rate.

    To put it another way, "careless" Sunak has actually saved us £109bn rather than cost us £11bn. Of course this was not rocket science, nor did it start with him. He is due no credit for this. But the way things are reported in this country, jeez. It goes beyond partisan. It goes into complete idiocy. And this is then the basis of our national conversation. No wonder our economic policy wanders from non existent to a total mess.

    But that sober analysis doesn’t make headlines, with a media who have decided the government can do nothing right. One expects better of the national broadcaster.
    If one does, then one hasn't been paying attention for at least the last few years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    Population = 3.14m in 2019, about 2.8m in 1984 so you've got to allow for an increase of over 10% in population.
    In 1983 Thatcher got 31% in Wales when she won her UK landslide, in 2019 Boris got 36% in Wales when he won his UK landslide
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360
    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    'Polling better than in their second worst election defeat' isn't necessarily a ringing endorsement of the Tories' current popularity in either country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    My point stands absolutely. There is zero chance of the Tories winning any seat in Bristol post Brexit and with Boris as leader. They also don't need to as Boris' landslide win in 2019 without winning a single Bristol seat proved. I will comment on what I like, tough

  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,905

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
    The Tories are still on course even now to hold 5 of their current Welsh seats, more than they had in 2005 as well as 1997 and 2001
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,682
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    It is quite likely that the Tories won't hold a seat outside England next GE.

    To be honest though, I don't think any of the numpties planning and plotting their moves would do any better.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    Porky rather than frumpier ...

    https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-and-the-self-deception?s=r
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
    Oh and its back to the standard Kjh patronising pompous condescension. Snooze.

    I proved you wrong and you know it, you were trying to argue most LD voters were republican, I showed that was wrong and you instantly tried to change what you were arguing about

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
  • TresTres Posts: 1,367
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    My point stands absolutely. There is zero chance of the Tories winning any seat in Bristol post Brexit and with Boris as leader. They also don't need to as Boris' landslide win in 2019 without winning a single Bristol seat proved. I will comment on what I like, tough

    If the swing in North Shrop had replicated the swing in Chesham and Amersham the Cons would have retained the seat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    edited June 11
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
    It'll be interesting to see if the Tomkins/Fraser style proposal for cutting the umbilical cord with the lot down in London reemerges at the next party leadership election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963

    I really don't care about Heather Wheeler (or anybody else) referring to Blackpool or Brum as "godawful" places.
    What I really object to is her then defying gravity and saying "it does not reflect my actual view".
    Well of course it fucking does, she said it.

    I've never been to Blackpool.

    Birmingham isn't 'godawful.' Like most U.K. cities it's a real mixed bag. What it doesn't have is much decent architecture in the city centre, unlike say York. With perhaps one exception it's a brutalist concrete wilderness, like Coventry only bigger.

    At the same time it's energetic and fairly intelligently laid out. Much more so than say, London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I expect lots of moves are going on in this febrile atmosphere, expect it when you least expect it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    Chesham and Amersham has been semi-marginal for some time. Shropshire North was one of the Tories' safest seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360
    Not entirely sure I fancy Hamilton to get to Q3.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
    The Tories are still on course even now to hold 5 of their current Welsh seats, more than they had in 2005 as well as 1997 and 2001
    And out of power for a generation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
    It'll be interesting to see if the Tomkins/Fraser style proposal for cutting the umbilical cord with the lot down in London reemerges at the next party leadership election.
    It would be far more popular if Boris resigned for the good of the Conservative party across the UK, the sooner the better.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,742
    edited June 11
    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    Chesham and Amersham has been semi-marginal for some time. Shropshire North was one of the Tories' safest seats.
    I would expect Shropshire North to go back to the Tories at the general election. The LDs may hold Chesham and Amersham however
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    Please tell me you are joking?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,549
    ydoethur said:

    I really don't care about Heather Wheeler (or anybody else) referring to Blackpool or Brum as "godawful" places.
    What I really object to is her then defying gravity and saying "it does not reflect my actual view".
    Well of course it fucking does, she said it.

    I've never been to Blackpool.

    Birmingham isn't 'godawful.' Like most U.K. cities it's a real mixed bag. What it doesn't have is much decent architecture in the city centre, unlike say York. With perhaps one exception it's a brutalist concrete wilderness, like Coventry only bigger.

    At the same time it's energetic and fairly intelligently laid out. Much more so than say, London.
    Whatever. I was really bemoaning the modern trend for people to say stuff, and then say they'd "misspoken" or "it doesn't reflect my actual view". It's dreadul.

    If I said to Mrs Al "you look awful and rather gross today", and then tried to retract by saying "sorry, that doesn't reflect my actual view", do you think Mrs Al would be happy with that?

    Quite so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,092
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,505
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    So you accept your original claim, that the C&A swing was bigger, was a lie. Good stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
    Not entirely true.

    The CSU has produced 2 Union Chancellor candidates, Franz Joseph-Strauss in 1980 and Edmund Stoiber in 2002
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
    Oh and its back to the standard Kjh patronising pompous condescension. Snooze.

    I proved you wrong and you know it, you were trying to argue most LD voters were republican, I showed that was wrong and you instantly tried to change what you were arguing about

    Head hits table. I know I shouldn't do this but here we go again.

    a) Why would I argue for something that even I don't agree with?
    b) Why did everyone else who saw that post know what I meant except you?
    c) Why do you think you know what I think more than me?

    You have shown today by a discussion with @Farooq and @SirNorfolkPassmore that you have no understanding whatsoever what they are saying.

    You have done the same numerous times with me.

    I have also notice that on numerous times you have 'liked' post by others clearly not understanding they are taking the piss out of you by use of irony for instance. You have done it with me at least half a dozen posts I have made in the past.

    You are Sheldon Cooper.

    Oh and just for clarity I have never suggested most LDs were republicans. I genuinely have no idea, but would assume that was not the case and would never argue such. I was arguing, as I have done many times before, that LD activists are not zombies who follow everything Ed Davey says.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,742
    By the standards of European cities, both Blackpool and Birmingham are indeed both “godawful”.

    One hears this sentiment a lot inside London, tbh, and sadly it’s true.

    What’s also true is that nobody seems inclined to address it. The UK seems to prefer it this way for reasons that still elude me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,360

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
    Got a chance with Ben Wallace, albeit for an English constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,905
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I'm so glad you said "siilly" not "upper class".

    Damn oik is in trade, and he needs reminding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    They wouldn't be the opposition, they would be extinct
    No, the Tories core vote ie at least 30% also loves the Mogg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,631
    DavidL said:

    Finally got around to the story that Sunak had cost us £11bn by failing to insure our debt against a rise in interest rates. What absolute, unadulterated tripe it proves to be: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61754394

    Firstly, the premise is that we could have bought over £600bn of our gilts and then reissued them at lower rates. Absurd.
    Secondly, it claims that by having the borrowing through the BoE under the QE system we failed to lock in these lower rates. This ignores the fact that the government does not pay interest on the gilts held by the BoE, something that has saved over £120bn to date.

    The report does indicate that the authors of the report do themselves acknowledge this. It says:

    "But Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, tweeted that the "£11bn 'cost' should really be set against the £120bn 'benefit' that the QE process has so far yielded for the Exchequer".

    "To be fair to NIESR in their paper of last year they do acknowledge this - but this seems to have been drowned out today."

    So what has in fact has happened is that the distortion of the BoE buying up so much of our gilt issuance has meant that the longevity of the remainder has shortened a bit (since the gilts already issued have got nearer to maturity) meaning that when we roll over this debt we will have to do so at a higher interest rate.

    To put it another way, "careless" Sunak has actually saved us £109bn rather than cost us £11bn. Of course this was not rocket science, nor did it start with him. He is due no credit for this. But the way things are reported in this country, jeez. It goes beyond partisan. It goes into complete idiocy. And this is then the basis of our national conversation. No wonder our economic policy wanders from non existent to a total mess.

    Thanks - appreciate the explanation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,631

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    It is also a bit embarrassing for the Scottish Tories, who planned something similar years ago but never got it off the ground.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    In the 2019 General Election, it was 74%, so that's 18% down. The Tories are also slightly down amongst Remainers (19% to 16%) as they are much less popular overall. But still, whether you look at it absolutely or proportionately, that's a big shift.

    Mexican Pete is joking about "Brexit is done, we have moved on". It's a fun reference to the Tory Party line on the matter... I know you don't really do humour, but I hope this helps.

    However, it is also true that it's a fading issue in polling - not dead by any means, but clearly fading.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,682

    By the standards of European cities, both Blackpool and Birmingham are indeed both “godawful”.

    One hears this sentiment a lot inside London, tbh, and sadly it’s true.

    What’s also true is that nobody seems inclined to address it. The UK seems to prefer it this way for reasons that still elude me.

    I quite like Brum. Every generation they knock down important parts of the city centre and rebuild, but the current incarnation is alright.

    It is a few decades since I was last in Blackpool. It can be fun but you have to be in the right state of mind.

    There are plenty of grim cities in other bits of Europe too, but visitors rarely go to them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,631

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,905
    Carnyx said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    Porky rather than frumpier ...

    https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-and-the-self-deception?s=r
    OMG, that's even worse.

    Partly the lack of gallantry, but mostly because it's not as if BoJo takes care of his figure.

    Ghastly man.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,470

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    Please God make it so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    When are LAB going to have a female leader?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,289
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    In the 2019 General Election, it was 74%, so that's 18% down. The Tories are also slightly down amongst Remainers (19% to 16%) as they are much less popular overall. But still, whether you look at it absolutely or proportionately, that's a big shift.

    Mexican Pete is joking about "Brexit is done, we have moved on". It's a fun reference to the Tory Party line on the matter... I know you don't really do humour, but I hope this helps.

    However, it is also true that it's a fading issue in polling - not dead by any means, but clearly fading.
    So the Tories still win over half of Leavers but are even less popular with Remainers than they were in 2019.

    Your Brexit vote remains the key determinant of voting intention, more than class and even more than age now. On the same Yougov poll the Tories are on only 32% of middle class ABC1s and 52% with over 65s but still on 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,198
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    IDS is a 100-1 shot for next Tory leader, even where offered, which isn't in many places as nobody is interested in betting on him.

    I see your point that Brexit will come up in a Tory leadership contest and may trump other factors given the strong Faragist element in the membership (I'd not go so far as reverse takeover, but it's not your Daddy's Tory Party).

    But I would be utterly amazed if IDS stands, flabberghasted beyond words if he then gets past MPs, and would probably needed to be carted off in a special jacket for a period or recuperation if he won. And you can quote me on that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,939
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
This discussion has been closed.