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Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited June 2022

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    the saracheats are really well named
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    That was then, this is now and he is taking them to a bitter defeat - and sadly they seem to have been accomplices in this extraordinary act of self harm
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    Population = 3.14m in 2019, about 2.8m in 1984 so you've got to allow for an increase of over 10% in population.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    You said "more votes" not "higher voteshare". Not the same thing.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Utterly toxic to some, catnip to others.

    And we all sort of knew that all along- even at the height of his popularity he was more marmite than Heineken.

    The difference now is that there are more haters hating him more. The Conservative party is in the same miserable position as a raddled old addict who craves something that, deep down, even they know is destroying them.

    The only real answer is to check in to the Betty Ford Clinic of Opposition, but that has a waiting list of 2 years.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Finally got around to the story that Sunak had cost us £11bn by failing to insure our debt against a rise in interest rates. What absolute, unadulterated tripe it proves to be: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61754394

    Firstly, the premise is that we could have bought over £600bn of our gilts and then reissued them at lower rates. Absurd.
    Secondly, it claims that by having the borrowing through the BoE under the QE system we failed to lock in these lower rates. This ignores the fact that the government does not pay interest on the gilts held by the BoE, something that has saved over £120bn to date.

    The report does indicate that the authors of the report do themselves acknowledge this. It says:

    "But Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, tweeted that the "£11bn 'cost' should really be set against the £120bn 'benefit' that the QE process has so far yielded for the Exchequer".

    "To be fair to NIESR in their paper of last year they do acknowledge this - but this seems to have been drowned out today."

    So what has in fact has happened is that the distortion of the BoE buying up so much of our gilt issuance has meant that the longevity of the remainder has shortened a bit (since the gilts already issued have got nearer to maturity) meaning that when we roll over this debt we will have to do so at a higher interest rate.

    To put it another way, "careless" Sunak has actually saved us £109bn rather than cost us £11bn. Of course this was not rocket science, nor did it start with him. He is due no credit for this. But the way things are reported in this country, jeez. It goes beyond partisan. It goes into complete idiocy. And this is then the basis of our national conversation. No wonder our economic policy wanders from non existent to a total mess.

    But that sober analysis doesn’t make headlines, with a media who have decided the government can do nothing right. One expects better of the national broadcaster.
    If one does, then one hasn't been paying attention for at least the last few years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    Yet Boris won more votes in Wales in 2019 than even Thatcher managed
    Is that corrected for (a) population and (b) turnout?
    It is correct on voteshare too yes
    Population = 3.14m in 2019, about 2.8m in 1984 so you've got to allow for an increase of over 10% in population.
    In 1983 Thatcher got 31% in Wales when she won her UK landslide, in 2019 Boris got 36% in Wales when he won his UK landslide
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    'Polling better than in their second worst election defeat' isn't necessarily a ringing endorsement of the Tories' current popularity in either country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    My point stands absolutely. There is zero chance of the Tories winning any seat in Bristol post Brexit and with Boris as leader. They also don't need to as Boris' landslide win in 2019 without winning a single Bristol seat proved. I will comment on what I like, tough

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
    The Tories are still on course even now to hold 5 of their current Welsh seats, more than they had in 2005 as well as 1997 and 2001
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    It is quite likely that the Tories won't hold a seat outside England next GE.

    To be honest though, I don't think any of the numpties planning and plotting their moves would do any better.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    Porky rather than frumpier ...

    https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-and-the-self-deception?s=r
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
    Oh and its back to the standard Kjh patronising pompous condescension. Snooze.

    I proved you wrong and you know it, you were trying to argue most LD voters were republican, I showed that was wrong and you instantly tried to change what you were arguing about

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    My point stands absolutely. There is zero chance of the Tories winning any seat in Bristol post Brexit and with Boris as leader. They also don't need to as Boris' landslide win in 2019 without winning a single Bristol seat proved. I will comment on what I like, tough

    If the swing in North Shrop had replicated the swing in Chesham and Amersham the Cons would have retained the seat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited June 2022
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
    It'll be interesting to see if the Tomkins/Fraser style proposal for cutting the umbilical cord with the lot down in London reemerges at the next party leadership election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    I really don't care about Heather Wheeler (or anybody else) referring to Blackpool or Brum as "godawful" places.
    What I really object to is her then defying gravity and saying "it does not reflect my actual view".
    Well of course it fucking does, she said it.

    I've never been to Blackpool.

    Birmingham isn't 'godawful.' Like most U.K. cities it's a real mixed bag. What it doesn't have is much decent architecture in the city centre, unlike say York. With perhaps one exception it's a brutalist concrete wilderness, like Coventry only bigger.

    At the same time it's energetic and fairly intelligently laid out. Much more so than say, London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I expect lots of moves are going on in this febrile atmosphere, expect it when you least expect it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    Chesham and Amersham has been semi-marginal for some time. Shropshire North was one of the Tories' safest seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Not entirely sure I fancy Hamilton to get to Q3.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    Yes it is certainly upper middle class at least. That just reinforces the point, it is the upper middle class who really loathe Boris, hence the hatred for him on PB. But that is still driven by Brexit in part.

    Amongst the working class and lower middle class Boris is much less unpopular
    And the Scots and Welsh and not to mention the Northern Irish
    Not really the Tories are still polling better in Scotland and Wales than in 1997. In 1997 the upper middle class were the only social group that stayed Tory.

    They are in extinction polling here in North Wales

    1997 was a landslide against them

    You are world class in denial
    The Tories are still on course even now to hold 5 of their current Welsh seats, more than they had in 2005 as well as 1997 and 2001
    And out of power for a generation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    Ross just needs to call in those favours that Boris owes him.....ah.
    It'll be interesting to see if the Tomkins/Fraser style proposal for cutting the umbilical cord with the lot down in London reemerges at the next party leadership election.
    It would be far more popular if Boris resigned for the good of the Conservative party across the UK, the sooner the better.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2022
    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    Chesham and Amersham has been semi-marginal for some time. Shropshire North was one of the Tories' safest seats.
    I would expect Shropshire North to go back to the Tories at the general election. The LDs may hold Chesham and Amersham however
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    Please tell me you are joking?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    ydoethur said:

    I really don't care about Heather Wheeler (or anybody else) referring to Blackpool or Brum as "godawful" places.
    What I really object to is her then defying gravity and saying "it does not reflect my actual view".
    Well of course it fucking does, she said it.

    I've never been to Blackpool.

    Birmingham isn't 'godawful.' Like most U.K. cities it's a real mixed bag. What it doesn't have is much decent architecture in the city centre, unlike say York. With perhaps one exception it's a brutalist concrete wilderness, like Coventry only bigger.

    At the same time it's energetic and fairly intelligently laid out. Much more so than say, London.
    Whatever. I was really bemoaning the modern trend for people to say stuff, and then say they'd "misspoken" or "it doesn't reflect my actual view". It's dreadul.

    If I said to Mrs Al "you look awful and rather gross today", and then tried to retract by saying "sorry, that doesn't reflect my actual view", do you think Mrs Al would be happy with that?

    Quite so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Firstly, Brexit isn't going to be the defining issue it was in 2019. North Shropshire was solidly Leave for instance, and voted Lib Dem. It's not irrelevant by any means, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think it is what it was.

    Secondly, there is no way in the world that NW Bristol was anywhere near as Remain-y as Bristol as a whole. Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym remain solidly "old" Tory, while UKIP won seats in Hengrove and were competitive in Avonmouth.

    I'm not saying it's a likely Tory gain in 2024. But you were suggesting that Tory MPs can say what they like about Bristol as it doesn't matter. Aside from the other arguments I raise (e.g. Filton is where they made Concord - it's not administratively in Bristol but emotionally it is) Bristol NW is somewhere the Tories have won before and will again, albeit probably not next time.

    An idea for you may be not to comment on things you know nothing about. You'd have a lot more spare time, and would embarrass yourself less. We really don't need to hear your half-arsed musings on every single thing.
    Even in North Shropshire the swing to the LDs was less than in pro Remain Chesham and Amersham. Look at the local elections too where the Tory vote held up far better in Leave areas than Remain areas.

    This is not true.

    The swing in Chesham & Amersham to the Lib Dems was 25.2%. In North Shropshire, it was 34.2%.

    What did I literally just say about you feeling the need to comment on things you are ignorant about?
    Well the LD majority is certainly far bigger in Chesham and Amersham. 21% to just 15% in North Shropshire
    So you accept your original claim, that the C&A swing was bigger, was a lie. Good stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
    Not entirely true.

    The CSU has produced 2 Union Chancellor candidates, Franz Joseph-Strauss in 1980 and Edmund Stoiber in 2002
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Completely missed the whole point of @SirNorfolkPassmore post and focused on a triviality by making a point that @SirNorfolkPassmore actually made and acknowledged in his own post himself.

    You seem to read posts and get a meaning out of them that was never intended. How you lack such basic comprehension as shown several times today and on numerous other occasions is beyond me (I refer you to the other day when you interpreted a post by me as about LDs support for the royal family whereas I was talking about independence of thought. Yet you insisted you knew better than me what I meant.).
    Oh and its back to the standard Kjh patronising pompous condescension. Snooze.

    I proved you wrong and you know it, you were trying to argue most LD voters were republican, I showed that was wrong and you instantly tried to change what you were arguing about

    Head hits table. I know I shouldn't do this but here we go again.

    a) Why would I argue for something that even I don't agree with?
    b) Why did everyone else who saw that post know what I meant except you?
    c) Why do you think you know what I think more than me?

    You have shown today by a discussion with @Farooq and @SirNorfolkPassmore that you have no understanding whatsoever what they are saying.

    You have done the same numerous times with me.

    I have also notice that on numerous times you have 'liked' post by others clearly not understanding they are taking the piss out of you by use of irony for instance. You have done it with me at least half a dozen posts I have made in the past.

    You are Sheldon Cooper.

    Oh and just for clarity I have never suggested most LDs were republicans. I genuinely have no idea, but would assume that was not the case and would never argue such. I was arguing, as I have done many times before, that LD activists are not zombies who follow everything Ed Davey says.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    By the standards of European cities, both Blackpool and Birmingham are indeed both “godawful”.

    One hears this sentiment a lot inside London, tbh, and sadly it’s true.

    What’s also true is that nobody seems inclined to address it. The UK seems to prefer it this way for reasons that still elude me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    Carnyx said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    The Scottish Tories don't seem to have worked that out yet, or at least Mr Ross changed his mind before he worked through the logical chain. Though a similar idea has been aired in the past.
    The problem for the Scottish Tories is that breaking away from Westminster smells just a bit like independence itself.

    On balance I think it would be positive for them, but the read from Germany is that a regional sister party doesn’t seem to get the opportunity to provide a PM, which seems unsatisfactory.

    Not that we’ve had a Scots Tory PM since Alec Douglas-Home.
    Got a chance with Ben Wallace, albeit for an English constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I'm so glad you said "siilly" not "upper class".

    Damn oik is in trade, and he needs reminding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    They wouldn't be the opposition, they would be extinct
    No, the Tories core vote ie at least 30% also loves the Mogg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    DavidL said:

    Finally got around to the story that Sunak had cost us £11bn by failing to insure our debt against a rise in interest rates. What absolute, unadulterated tripe it proves to be: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61754394

    Firstly, the premise is that we could have bought over £600bn of our gilts and then reissued them at lower rates. Absurd.
    Secondly, it claims that by having the borrowing through the BoE under the QE system we failed to lock in these lower rates. This ignores the fact that the government does not pay interest on the gilts held by the BoE, something that has saved over £120bn to date.

    The report does indicate that the authors of the report do themselves acknowledge this. It says:

    "But Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, tweeted that the "£11bn 'cost' should really be set against the £120bn 'benefit' that the QE process has so far yielded for the Exchequer".

    "To be fair to NIESR in their paper of last year they do acknowledge this - but this seems to have been drowned out today."

    So what has in fact has happened is that the distortion of the BoE buying up so much of our gilt issuance has meant that the longevity of the remainder has shortened a bit (since the gilts already issued have got nearer to maturity) meaning that when we roll over this debt we will have to do so at a higher interest rate.

    To put it another way, "careless" Sunak has actually saved us £109bn rather than cost us £11bn. Of course this was not rocket science, nor did it start with him. He is due no credit for this. But the way things are reported in this country, jeez. It goes beyond partisan. It goes into complete idiocy. And this is then the basis of our national conversation. No wonder our economic policy wanders from non existent to a total mess.

    Thanks - appreciate the explanation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    It is also a bit embarrassing for the Scottish Tories, who planned something similar years ago but never got it off the ground.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    In the 2019 General Election, it was 74%, so that's 18% down. The Tories are also slightly down amongst Remainers (19% to 16%) as they are much less popular overall. But still, whether you look at it absolutely or proportionately, that's a big shift.

    Mexican Pete is joking about "Brexit is done, we have moved on". It's a fun reference to the Tory Party line on the matter... I know you don't really do humour, but I hope this helps.

    However, it is also true that it's a fading issue in polling - not dead by any means, but clearly fading.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    By the standards of European cities, both Blackpool and Birmingham are indeed both “godawful”.

    One hears this sentiment a lot inside London, tbh, and sadly it’s true.

    What’s also true is that nobody seems inclined to address it. The UK seems to prefer it this way for reasons that still elude me.

    I quite like Brum. Every generation they knock down important parts of the city centre and rebuild, but the current incarnation is alright.

    It is a few decades since I was last in Blackpool. It can be fun but you have to be in the right state of mind.

    There are plenty of grim cities in other bits of Europe too, but visitors rarely go to them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Carnyx said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    Porky rather than frumpier ...

    https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-and-the-self-deception?s=r
    OMG, that's even worse.

    Partly the lack of gallantry, but mostly because it's not as if BoJo takes care of his figure.

    Ghastly man.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    Please God make it so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    When are LAB going to have a female leader?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    In the 2019 General Election, it was 74%, so that's 18% down. The Tories are also slightly down amongst Remainers (19% to 16%) as they are much less popular overall. But still, whether you look at it absolutely or proportionately, that's a big shift.

    Mexican Pete is joking about "Brexit is done, we have moved on". It's a fun reference to the Tory Party line on the matter... I know you don't really do humour, but I hope this helps.

    However, it is also true that it's a fading issue in polling - not dead by any means, but clearly fading.
    So the Tories still win over half of Leavers but are even less popular with Remainers than they were in 2019.

    Your Brexit vote remains the key determinant of voting intention, more than class and even more than age now. On the same Yougov poll the Tories are on only 32% of middle class ABC1s and 52% with over 65s but still on 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    IDS is a 100-1 shot for next Tory leader, even where offered, which isn't in many places as nobody is interested in betting on him.

    I see your point that Brexit will come up in a Tory leadership contest and may trump other factors given the strong Faragist element in the membership (I'd not go so far as reverse takeover, but it's not your Daddy's Tory Party).

    But I would be utterly amazed if IDS stands, flabberghasted beyond words if he then gets past MPs, and would probably needed to be carted off in a special jacket for a period or recuperation if he won. And you can quote me on that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    In the 2019 General Election, it was 74%, so that's 18% down. The Tories are also slightly down amongst Remainers (19% to 16%) as they are much less popular overall. But still, whether you look at it absolutely or proportionately, that's a big shift.

    Mexican Pete is joking about "Brexit is done, we have moved on". It's a fun reference to the Tory Party line on the matter... I know you don't really do humour, but I hope this helps.

    However, it is also true that it's a fading issue in polling - not dead by any means, but clearly fading.
    So the Tories still win over half of Leavers but are even less popular with Remainers than they were in 2019.

    Your Brexit vote remains the key determinant of voting intention, more than class and even more than age now. On the same Yougov poll the Tories are on only 32% of middle class ABC1s and 52% with over 65s but still on 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016
    Nobody on this thread is seriously saying Brexit doesn't matter as a factor in voting, HYUFD.

    As I patiently explained to you as one of PB's hard of humour contributors, Mexican Pete was making a little joke.

    The point is that it is significantly less important than in 2019. That's demonstrated by the polls and by real votes - e.g. the swing in North Shropshire being larger than in Chesham & Amersham (noting I called out your lie about that matter).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    What are the chances of a pigeon seeing you twice?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
    Perhaps even you will understand that when the latest Yougov has 56% of Leave voters voting Conservative but only 52% of over 65s and 32% of ABC1s voting Conservative that a voter's Brexit vote is now the key factor determining whether they are still voting Tory or not. Not their class and not even their age
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    They wouldn't be the opposition, they would be extinct
    No, the Tories core vote ie at least 30% also loves the Mogg
    But Moggsy alienates possible converts.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:


    So the Tories still win over half of Leavers but are even less popular with Remainers than they were in 2016.

    Your Brexit vote remains the key determinant of voting intention, more than class and even more than age now. On the same Yougov poll the Tories are on only 32% of middle class ABC1s and 52% with over 65s but still on 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016

    I understand what you're saying but a similar thing has happened in Australia and to an extent America where they've had nothing equivalent to the EU Referendum.

    The recent Federal election in Australia emphasised the cultural, economic and educational shift in voting patterns - the Coalition did better than the national trend in seats of less well educated and poorer people while Labor did disproportionately better in the seats of wealthier better educated people (though not as well as the Greens and some of the Teals).

    I'd argue the EU Referendum illuminated what had been apparent for some time before and the 2019 GE emphasised it further - the core of the centre-right vote has moved from the traditional heartland of the wealthy and well-educated to the "white working class" while wealthier and better educated people are tending away from the Conservatives but not always to Labour (note the Greens and the LDs).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    I find the decline in Rees-Mogg's reputation genuinely puzzling. To me he currently seems indistinguishable from who he was six or seven years ago, yet back then people were proclaiming him a genuine phenomenon. What happened?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    Labour would discover Mordaunt is every bit as politically potent as Maggie.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    I find the decline in Rees-Mogg's reputation genuinely puzzling. To me he currently seems indistinguishable from who he was six or seven years ago, yet back then people were proclaiming him a genuine phenomenon. What happened?
    When he was a backbencher making third rate jokes in a silly voice, he was harmless enough and people found him funny.

    Given some power people realised he's actually a nasty, duplicitous, lazy, rude, arrogant and not very intelligent snob.

    Bit like Johnson himself...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
    Perhaps even you will understand that when the latest Yougov has 56% of Leave voters voting Conservative but only 52% of over 65s and 32% of ABC1s voting Conservative that a voter's Brexit vote is now the key factor determining whether they are still voting Tory or not. Not their class and not even their age
    Oh for goodness sake you didn't even understand that post either.

    This is mind boggling.

    I was trying to explain to you that you responded to a post by @Mexicanpete as if he was being serious when he was actually making a joke at your expense.

    And all I was doing was pointing out you have proved my point of again failing to completely understand a post particularly when someone is using irony to take the piss out of you.

    Your lack of comprehension is off the scale. Is English your first language? Have you had a humour bypass?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Afternoon all :)

    No Stodge Saturday Patent today - keeping what embers I have alive for Royal Ascot starting on Tuesday. I was told by a friend to "bet the house on BAAEED" - I'd better not, Mrs Stodge might be upset if I have to tell her we'll be leaving in the car for a few days...

    Catching up on the morning debate about the role of Monarchy in the political arena - we've had 70 years of public non-involvement from the Monarch and have come to perhaps assume this should be the natural order of things. I suspect had Edward VIII remained on the throne, it might have been very different.

    The current line works as does so much else about the Monarchy but to nuance it slightly while the Monarch should be apolitical, should that extend to those in immediate line of succession? I've no problem with Prince Charles expressing his opinions (though it's quite clear a number don't like anything he says) - ditto Prince William (one presumes he's allowed to get away with it because he has a pretty wife and three children) and indeed one day Prince George etc but once they become Monarch the wall has to come up and any public opinions expressed have to be politically neutral and by definition fairly anodyne.

    As to whether Charles will adhere to the current convention once he becomes King, once can but hope he has counselled wisely. Having a political opinion, by the way, is not the same as expressing concern in general terms about the environment, wildlife conservation etc.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
    Perhaps even you will understand that when the latest Yougov has 56% of Leave voters voting Conservative but only 52% of over 65s and 32% of ABC1s voting Conservative that a voter's Brexit vote is now the key factor determining whether they are still voting Tory or not. Not their class and not even their age
    I suspect the key factor is how their next door neighbour voted if you ever did that analysis.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    I find the decline in Rees-Mogg's reputation genuinely puzzling. To me he currently seems indistinguishable from who he was six or seven years ago, yet back then people were proclaiming him a genuine phenomenon. What happened?
    He was put in charge of something and his inadequacies became visible to all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    It's not quite the same thing, but in 2019 every parliamentary seat in England was ranked by deprivation (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019).

    Richmond Park is comfortably in the top 10% seats for least deprived, but is not at the very top. The top three are:

    (3) Chesham and Amersham
    (2) North East Hampshire
    (1) Wokingham

    Interestingly, Richmond Park is therefore only third on the list of least deprived LD seats.

    Would anyone like to guess which seat is second?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    So the Tories still win over half of Leavers but are even less popular with Remainers than they were in 2016.

    Your Brexit vote remains the key determinant of voting intention, more than class and even more than age now. On the same Yougov poll the Tories are on only 32% of middle class ABC1s and 52% with over 65s but still on 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016

    I understand what you're saying but a similar thing has happened in Australia and to an extent America where they've had nothing equivalent to the EU Referendum.

    The recent Federal election in Australia emphasised the cultural, economic and educational shift in voting patterns - the Coalition did better than the national trend in seats of less well educated and poorer people while Labor did disproportionately better in the seats of wealthier better educated people (though not as well as the Greens and some of the Teals).

    I'd argue the EU Referendum illuminated what had been apparent for some time before and the 2019 GE emphasised it further - the core of the centre-right vote has moved from the traditional heartland of the wealthy and well-educated to the "white working class" while wealthier and better educated people are tending away from the Conservatives but not always to Labour (note the Greens and the LDs).
    I would agree, the core vote for the right across the western world is now the white skilled working and lower middle class and for traditional conservative parties it is pensioners. Upper middle class, wealthy graduates who used to vote for conservatives and centre right parties now increasingly vote for liberals like Macron and Trudeau and the LDs here, the Democrats in the US or Independents in Australia
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    Labour would discover Mordaunt is every bit as politically potent as Maggie.....
    I can't say I've really much knowledge of Penny Mordaunt. But some googling confirmed a vague recollection that she once peppered a speech delivered in the Commons chamber with cock references for a bet. I suppose that demonstrates something, but I can't think what.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    It's not quite the same thing, but in 2019 every parliamentary seat in England was ranked by deprivation (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019).

    Richmond Park is comfortably in the top 10% seats for least deprived, but is not at the very top. The top three are:

    (3) Chesham and Amersham
    (2) North East Hampshire
    (1) Wokingham

    Interestingly, Richmond Park is therefore only third on the list of least deprived LD seats.

    Would anyone like to guess which seat is second?
    Ed Davey's?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    Labour would discover Mordaunt is every bit as politically potent as Maggie.....
    Mark what is your view on T&H now? If you feel it imprudent to say I get it. Have you been much recently?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    For the love of God, shut the fuck up.

    You have absolutely no understanding of the current Conservative Party. Yes, you are an official in your local Party. I understand that.

    So am I. I would rather people listened to me to get an understanding of what the Party represents. You destroy your own credibility whilst giving ammunition to our opponents.

    For the record, Rees-Mogg becomes leader only when membership sinks below a thousand. And even then, not if I were one of those thousand.

    Again, just STFU.
    I am sorry but it is true. I go to Tory membership events as much as you and most of them are big fans of Rees Mogg. All dinners and speaking events he does in Tory Associations are always sold out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    You are forever living in the past and ignoring the future

    You are in for a big shock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
    Perhaps even you will understand that when the latest Yougov has 56% of Leave voters voting Conservative but only 52% of over 65s and 32% of ABC1s voting Conservative that a voter's Brexit vote is now the key factor determining whether they are still voting Tory or not. Not their class and not even their age
    Oh for goodness sake you didn't even understand that post either.

    This is mind boggling.

    I was trying to explain to you that you responded to a post by @Mexicanpete as if he was being serious when he was actually making a joke at your expense.

    And all I was doing was pointing out you have proved my point of again failing to completely understand a post particularly when someone is using irony to take the piss out of you.

    Your lack of comprehension is off the scale. Is English your first language? Have you had a humour bypass?
    And yet again Kjh posts another pompous rude post attacking me without discussing the topic at all.


    Says everything you need to know about him!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    For the love of God, shut the fuck up.

    You have absolutely no understanding of the current Conservative Party. Yes, you are an official in your local Party. I understand that.

    So am I. I would rather people listened to me to get an understanding of what the Party represents. You destroy your own credibility whilst giving ammunition to our opponents.

    For the record, Rees-Mogg becomes leader only when membership sinks below a thousand. And even then, not if I were one of those thousand.

    Again, just STFU.
    I hold you in high regard Mark even though you are an opponent. You have just gone up several levels.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    It's not quite the same thing, but in 2019 every parliamentary seat in England was ranked by deprivation (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019).

    Richmond Park is comfortably in the top 10% seats for least deprived, but is not at the very top. The top three are:

    (3) Chesham and Amersham
    (2) North East Hampshire
    (1) Wokingham

    Interestingly, Richmond Park is therefore only third on the list of least deprived LD seats.

    Would anyone like to guess which seat is second?
    Oxford West and Abingdon?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    You seem to think you have an insight into the membership which mirrors your own right wing views, but they will not commit electoral suicide with Patel or the idiotic JRM
    They voted for IDS over the more electable Ken Clarke even if they voted for Cameron over Davis and Johnson over Hunt. It depends what mood they are in
    Exactly, if one of the hard core Brexiteers gets through to the members then they will win I suspect.

    Even IDS is a name being banded about apparently as an option to make sure a pure brexiteer gets through to membership.
    It'll be Penny, she'll win, and she'll be the best PM since Thatch. I have spoken.
    A recurrent wet dream of Tories is to find a new Maggie. They thought they had with May, and now their fantasies have moved on to Mordaunt. It is an unfair load to put on any candidate, but every female candidate gets landed with it.
    Labour would discover Mordaunt is every bit as politically potent as Maggie.....
    Mark what is your view on T&H now? If you feel it imprudent to say I get it. Have you been much recently?
    I have not been recently. I would not want to put in the effort and be the person responsible for the Tories holding by one vote - and the bragging rights that would deliver to Boris.

    I hope our candidate wins. She seems a decent candidate, certainly more so than the LibDem bloke. I would work to get her elected in a General Election. But it will not be on the back of my efforts this time.

    I think it will need to be a voter strike to remove Boris as there was one which removed May. This time I suspect it will not be Farage but the Can't be Arsed party that will do for a Conservative PM.
  • Not sure why Luckyguy is so keen on Morduant, can you elaborate?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    I would not be so sure, I could certainly see Tory members voting for Patel or even Rees Mogg as leader over say Hunt or Sunak
    If you're serious, then that's genuinely alarming. Surely there can't be enough lunatics in the world to think Rees-Mogg is fit to be anything other than Silly Twit of the Year?
    I could certainly see Rees Mogg as a future Tory Leader of the Opposition.

    Tory members love the Mogg as much as Labour members loved Corbyn!
    For the love of God, shut the fuck up.

    You have absolutely no understanding of the current Conservative Party. Yes, you are an official in your local Party. I understand that.

    So am I. I would rather people listened to me to get an understanding of what the Party represents. You destroy your own credibility whilst giving ammunition to our opponents.

    For the record, Rees-Mogg becomes leader only when membership sinks below a thousand. And even then, not if I were one of those thousand.

    Again, just STFU.
    Needed saying
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    The biggest news story of the year is probably this:

    https://phys.org/news/2022-06-scientists-breakthrough-life-earthand-mars.html

    For a long time, loonies have said that DNA is so exceptionally complex that the chances of it forming naturally are so remote as to essentially require that it was intelligently designed.

    But scientists have now managed to spontaneously create RNA (a likely precursor of DNA) on basalt lava glass.

    This also means that the chance of some form of self-replicating molecule that is the formation for organic life appearing elsewhere in the Universe is extremely high. In other words, aliens are almost certainly out there.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Ideally, she would try being to be polite about residents anywhere in the UK, whether they have a Tory MP or not.
    Ideally but she could be as rude as she liked about Islington or Bristol or Manchester or Glasgow and it wouldn't matter to the Tories as they have zero MPs there and zero chance of winning any.

    Boris however needs to hold the Tory seats in Birmingham and Blackpool to keep his majority
    Firstly, you do know people from Bristol, Manchester, and Glasgow sometimes move, don't you? I mean, there are hundreds of thousands of proud Bristolians, Mancunians, and Glaswegians in Tory seats.

    You're also not really right about Tory prospects in these areas. Bristol NW was Tory until 2017 for instance - it's clearly not a "must win" as they won in 2019 without it. But it's an area where they are reasonably competitive. There are also areas like Filton & Bradley Stoke, and Kingswood, which aren't within Bristol City Council but clearly include substantial suburbs contiguous with Bristol - it's their city too.
    Post Brexit Bristol NW is not really competitive for the Tories, they got just 38% there in 2019, 5% worse than nationally when they won a landslide.

    Bristol voted 61% Remain while Blackpool voted 67% Leave
    Brexit is done we have moved on.
    It isn't, on the latest Yougov 56% of Leave voters are still voting Conservative but only 16% of Remain voters are voting Conservative

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/10/voting-intention-con-32-lab-36-1-3-june
    And Bingo you immediately prove my point by not getting irony.

    We should run a sweepstake on when you will ever understand a post by someone else.
    Perhaps even you will understand that when the latest Yougov has 56% of Leave voters voting Conservative but only 52% of over 65s and 32% of ABC1s voting Conservative that a voter's Brexit vote is now the key factor determining whether they are still voting Tory or not. Not their class and not even their age
    Oh for goodness sake you didn't even understand that post either.

    This is mind boggling.

    I was trying to explain to you that you responded to a post by @Mexicanpete as if he was being serious when he was actually making a joke at your expense.

    And all I was doing was pointing out you have proved my point of again failing to completely understand a post particularly when someone is using irony to take the piss out of you.

    Your lack of comprehension is off the scale. Is English your first language? Have you had a humour bypass?
    And yet again Kjh posts another pompous rude post attacking me without discussing the topic at all.


    Says everything you need to know about him!
    I think @MarqueeMark says everything about you. You really are very stupid. I mean a level of stupidity that is difficult to achieve. No doubt however you will also manage to misunderstand Marks post as you have done about everyone else's posts.

    You do more harm to the Conservatives that I could ever do as a LD.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    fitalass said:

    The Welsh Tory bid for independence has nothing to do with Welsh separatism, and everything to do with needing to demonstrate independence from Boris to the electorate in 2024.

    It’s another sign that Boris is uniquely toxic to voters.

    True and what angers me is both our local mps supported Boris despite the evidence he is toxic to them

    I have made my views clear that they will lose their seats unless they join the 148

    When are the 210 (the other is Boris) wake up and see that across large parts of this country and not least Scotland and Wales he is taking them to a devastating loss
    Delighted that my MP Andrew Bowie is already one of the 148, but what we need now is some movement from those within Government.
    A cabinet resignation or two or three would be excellent
    It would, but it doesn't seem to be happening. For whatever reason, good or ill, it's Boris's party now.

    In the case of people like Dorries and JRM, it's obvious that they know that they have zero future beyond a Johnson premiership. Maybe that extends to Patel and some others. But one of the saddest features of Conservative politics since 2016ish has been watching otherwise perfectly capable people abase themselves in the service of someone who regards others as utterly disposable.

    What's that line sometimes attributed to BoJo about getting frumpier students from women's colleges to back him with no intention of giving anything in return?
    Porky rather than frumpier ...

    https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-and-the-self-deception?s=r
    OMG, that's even worse.

    Partly the lack of gallantry, but mostly because it's not as if BoJo takes care of his figure.

    Ghastly man.
    He was younger and, I assume, slimmer at the relevant time.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited June 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heather Wheeler for next PM.

    Government minister Heather Wheeler has apologised after describing Birmingham and Blackpool as "godawful" places.

    The Conservative MP for South Derbyshire made the remark at a conference in London as she launched the government's new digital strategy.

    Mrs Wheeler, a parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet Office, said she made an "inappropriate remark that does not reflect my actual view".

    Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner accused her of "utter contempt".

    Mrs Wheeler, also an assistant government whip, is reported to have said: "I was just at a conference in Blackpool or Birmingham or somewhere godawful."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61767856

    I hope she realised Blackpool and Birmingham now both each have 1 Tory MP? They may not be the wealthiest or most educated places (apart from Edgbaston in Birmingham) but they have seats we need to hold
    Edgbaston isn't like it was back in Jill Knight's day.

    Heather Wheeler strikes me as an obnoxious snob. It doesn't mean she isn't right though.

    Birmingham: what the Luftwaffe missed, the town planners hit.

    Blackpool: Where were the Luftwaffe?
    Edgbaston used to be the only reasonably safe Tory seat in Birmingham. It is the wealthiest and most middle class part of the city.

    However since it went Labour in 1997 it has stayed Labour and it was more working class Birmingham Northfield which the Tories gained in 2019, not Edgbaston reflecting the more working class voter coalition Boris built.

    That also explains why working class Blackpool has a Tory MP and very middle class Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham and St Albans now don't
    I know Richmond Park very well and I would say it's more upper class than middle. If you can stretch the definition of middle class to include RP, it's definitely right at the top end of it.

    But then everybody has their own definition of class.
    It's not quite the same thing, but in 2019 every parliamentary seat in England was ranked by deprivation (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019).

    Richmond Park is comfortably in the top 10% seats for least deprived, but is not at the very top. The top three are:

    (3) Chesham and Amersham
    (2) North East Hampshire
    (1) Wokingham

    Interestingly, Richmond Park is therefore only third on the list of least deprived LD seats.

    Would anyone like to guess which seat is second?
    Ed Davey's?
    I may well be corrected on this, but I'd be very surprised if Kingston had less deprivation than Richmond Park. It has some fairly tricky areas like Chessington. I'd say maybe somewhere like St Albans or even a wildcard like Edinburgh West (I don't really know that seat - I know it has posh areas in it but possibly more of a mix).

    EDIT: I stand corrected. I'm a little surprised it's OxWaB, which is obviously very nice but Abingdon isn't uniformally posh - although I suppose nowhere is.
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