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Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 20 in General
imageJohnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com

After a week in which Johnson easily survived the attempt by some Conservative MP’s to oust him inevitably the PM exit year betting market has moved sharply.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    edited June 11
    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    edited June 11
    DavidL said:

    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.

    Agreed, but a reprieve only, I think.

    I’m inclined to let my ‘out before party conference’ bet run.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,895
    Very day Boris stays, is a day wasted. This country will not move forward until he goes. It will continue to eat itself.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,627
    DavidL said:

    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.

    You mean

    Dear Sir Graham

    Please add this to your collection of 53 letters to make the 54th saying I have no confidence in myself.

    Yours in confidence
    Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either
  • TresTres Posts: 964
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.

    Agreed, but a reprieve only, I think.

    I’m inclined to let my ‘out before party conference’ bet run.
    The only way Johnson is leaving office this year is if he gets hit by the proverbial bus.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    DavidL said:

    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.

    I agree David, when the story is told, how post vonc the narrative is so different than the pressure building pre vonc, and it’s missed the by elections, and it was Monday evening straight after the long party weekend, and it is so easy for Save Big Dog to control for the time best for them - why do people not agree with you and me on this?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975
    FPT

    So which fecking thread are we doing now?
    On pigeons - yes of course you have seen the same one twice.
    On couples arguing, I’ve been married 17 years and we rarely argue. It’s partly because we are not that argumentative. My wife’s sister is much more likely to blow her top, rage for a few minutes, then it’s all over. My wife tends to bottle it up inside.
    Everyone’s different. Mostly works for us.
    On swingback, every election is different. Some might hear similarities to others, as now could be either 1992 or 1997, but that’s just similarities, and it’s hard to say which of those two will be closest. It could be 2010 too.
    And the sun is shining, her maj made it to and past the jubilee and I have cricket later. A good day.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,081
    A Boris-loyal minister tells me cabinet ministers are "using their office to raise their profile and engage with MPs" and the tone in Westminster "has changed since Monday. Everyone expects that there will be a vacancy at some point in the near future."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/11/uk/boris-johnson-leadership-rivals-analysis-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    DavidL said:

    Oh its here after all.

    It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.

    I agree David, when the story is told, how post vonc the narrative is so different than the pressure building pre vonc, and it’s missed the by elections, and it was Monday evening straight after the long party weekend, and it is so easy for Save Big Dog to control for the time best for them - why do people not agree with you and me on this?
    The other thing missing is “what has Cummings kept back to release, the day before the VONC?”

    Has Johnson sent MI6 round to wave an empty sports bag at him, or something 🤷‍♀️
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004
    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    HYUFD said:

    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either

    You still parrot support for Boris notwithstanding 65 plus grassroots conservative chairs are about to issue a collective demand he goes and the Welsh Conservatives (and no doubt the Scots) are seeking independence from the party

    The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    Scott_xP said:

    A Boris-loyal minister tells me cabinet ministers are "using their office to raise their profile and engage with MPs" and the tone in Westminster "has changed since Monday. Everyone expects that there will be a vacancy at some point in the near future."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/11/uk/boris-johnson-leadership-rivals-analysis-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html

    I believe it is inevitable and before conference
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,081
    edited June 11
    One for the "Brexit is done" fanbois...

    ✍️ "The problem for Tories isn’t just the lack of a viable successor to Boris Johnson. It’s also the distinct lack of Brexiteerism in any of his potential replacements." | Writes Camilla Tominey https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/missing-brexiteer-candidate-tory-leadership-race/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,029
    If some of the letters to Brady were from amongst Johnson's strongest supporters then that would certainly be a reason for them to look at changing the rules as they would appear to be gaming the system.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    edited June 11

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    If some of the letters to Brady were from amongst Johnson's strongest supporters then that would certainly be a reason for them to look at changing the rules as they would appear to be gaming the system.

    Although it’s tempting to think the system was gamed by Johnson and his supporters, I think it’s far more likely that 4 day holiday with a lot of constituency events produced letters, and that Brady deliberately held back until after the jubilee.

    As has been said repeatedly, in theory he has a year. Others pms have also had a year, but been gone far sooner. I’d be amazed if Johnson is still in power in 12 months time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    There is virtually zero narrative in Wales for independence not least because labour, conservative and lib dems are all pro union
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988

    HYUFD said:

    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either

    You still parrot support for Boris notwithstanding 65 plus grassroots conservative chairs are about to issue a collective demand he goes and the Welsh Conservatives (and no doubt the Scots) are seeking independence from the party

    The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report

    65 is less percentage wise than the 40% of Tory MPs who voted against Boris on Monday.

    You don't have the votes to remove him

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    You can't argue with facts. Boris is polarising. He has his supporters but those who dislike him dislike him so much they are willing to consider extraordinary measures, such as Welsh independence, to get rid of him.
    The naivety and stubborn complacency of his supporters, people like you, is part of what drives that too. You can't see how toxic he is even when presented with good evidence of it.

    This is why we need more, not less, boring politicians. Interesting types like Boris and Corbyn are centrifugal forces inside the electorate. It's not healthy to have everyone spinning out from the centre.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,207
    Scott_xP said:

    A Boris-loyal minister tells me cabinet ministers are "using their office to raise their profile and engage with MPs" and the tone in Westminster "has changed since Monday. Everyone expects that there will be a vacancy at some point in the near future."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/11/uk/boris-johnson-leadership-rivals-analysis-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html

    You would have to be an idiot not to given the VONC and the historical precedents. However, as they say in investment circles, past returns don’t guarantee future growth.

    I’d be more interested in 12 months time and BJ is still there if the journalist came out and said their speculation at the time was wrong. Fat chance of that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
    I have no idea why he is still there - utterly dreadful
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either

    You still parrot support for Boris notwithstanding 65 plus grassroots conservative chairs are about to issue a collective demand he goes and the Welsh Conservatives (and no doubt the Scots) are seeking independence from the party

    The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report

    65 is less percentage wise than the 40% of Tory MPs who voted against Boris on Monday.

    You don't have the votes to remove him

    I have no idea what you are saying but he will not survive in office much longer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either

    You still parrot support for Boris notwithstanding 65 plus grassroots conservative chairs are about to issue a collective demand he goes and the Welsh Conservatives (and no doubt the Scots) are seeking independence from the party

    The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report

    65 is less percentage wise than the 40% of Tory MPs who voted against Boris on Monday.

    You don't have the votes to remove him

    I have no idea what you are saying but he will not survive in office much longer
    You said that before the VONC last week which Boris clearly won
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    You can't argue with facts. Boris is polarising. He has his supporters but those who dislike him dislike him so much they are willing to consider extraordinary measures, such as Welsh independence, to get rid of him.
    The naivety and stubborn complacency of his supporters, people like you, is part of what drives that too. You can't see how toxic he is even when presented with good evidence of it.

    This is why we need more, not less, boring politicians. Interesting types like Boris and Corbyn are centrifugal forces inside the electorate. It's not healthy to have everyone spinning out from the centre.
    People like you who also hate Brexit and Boris yes want to get rid of him.

    However Wales also voted for Brexit and Boris got the highest Tory voteshare in Wales in 2019 since World War 2, that is undeniable and also a fact
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
    I have no idea why he is still there - utterly dreadful
    One or other, or both?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,081
    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    You can't argue with facts. Boris is polarising. He has his supporters but those who dislike him dislike him so much they are willing to consider extraordinary measures, such as Welsh independence, to get rid of him.
    The naivety and stubborn complacency of his supporters, people like you, is part of what drives that too. You can't see how toxic he is even when presented with good evidence of it.

    This is why we need more, not less, boring politicians. Interesting types like Boris and Corbyn are centrifugal forces inside the electorate. It's not healthy to have everyone spinning out from the centre.
    I have to disagree on Welsh independence as there is no evidence that support for Plaid is gaining nor is is it a subject of normal political debate

    Indeed, it is irrelevant as labour are more popular than in a long time and that is your rejection of Boris vote, not Plaid
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    Even on the recent Wales poll the Tories would still win more MPs in Wales than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given almost 60% of Tory MPs still backed Boris on Monday despite the loss of North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham in by elections I doubt Wakefield or Tiverton and Honiton make much difference.

    If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either

    You still parrot support for Boris notwithstanding 65 plus grassroots conservative chairs are about to issue a collective demand he goes and the Welsh Conservatives (and no doubt the Scots) are seeking independence from the party

    The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report

    65 is less percentage wise than the 40% of Tory MPs who voted against Boris on Monday.

    You don't have the votes to remove him

    Absolutely true. And thirty two loyalists are not going to change their minds anytime soon.

    Besides, Johnson also has lots of options to bolster his position. There were absolutely no raised eyebrows when he excluded Grieve and Co. He could withdraw the whip from twenty, one- nation Tories and still have a majority of forty, which sees him comfortably through to January 2025.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
    I have no idea why he is still there - utterly dreadful
    Because Paul is even worse?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,728

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
    I have no idea why he is still there - utterly dreadful
    What’s worse is that this is his second go.

    As the saying runs, insanity is doing the same thing twice in the expectation of a different result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,728
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    Even on the recent Wales poll the Tories would still win more MPs in Wales than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005
    ‘Don’t worry sir, it’s only about 10% of his body. Everything below the neck is perfectly OK.’
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
    It simply is not

    What is happening is Labour are receiving the boost anti Boris vote
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    There is virtually zero narrative in Wales for independence not least because labour, conservative and lib dems are all pro union
    Yet a quarter of the population want it, up from one sixth just a few years ago.
    Sometimes, political ideas take root in the population without politicians or the media leading on it.
    The polling is showing somethinig. Your challenge is to decide what it is and why it's happening. I've given you my view: independence is a growing -- not fast but not slowly -- and the reason is extreme toxicity of the current Conservative party. The facts solidly support the first point, and the second point is conjecture.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    Even on the recent Wales poll the Tories would still win more MPs in Wales than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005
    Oh dear
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
    Considering 47% of Welsh voters voted to Remain in the EU and 64% of Welsh voters did not vote Tory in 2019, it is actually astonishing the support for Welsh independence is still as low as it is
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
    I remain sceptical he will be ousted now this side of a GE.

    The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
    I remain sceptical he will be ousted now this side of a GE.

    The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
    And if there was, would they want it so late in the day with tricky election soon in them? If they fancy the leadership they wait now don’t they?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,487
    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    We need to get civil servants back to their desks, so that we can sack then in person.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited June 11
    Scott_xP said:

    A Boris-loyal minister tells me cabinet ministers are "using their office to raise their profile and engage with MPs" and the tone in Westminster "has changed since Monday. Everyone expects that there will be a vacancy at some point in the near future."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/11/uk/boris-johnson-leadership-rivals-analysis-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html

    I wonder if that refers to Mordaunt and Hunt, most of all. The Whatsapp groups being "installed" again, like Portillo's 1990s telephone lines.
  • Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
    I remain sceptical he will be ousted now this side of a GE.

    The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
    And the membership will be looking for someone to be right of Boris on economics and just as hardline on Brexit.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115

    FPT

    So which fecking thread are we doing now?
    On pigeons - yes of course you have seen the same one twice.
    On couples arguing, I’ve been married 17 years and we rarely argue. It’s partly because we are not that argumentative. My wife’s sister is much more likely to blow her top, rage for a few minutes, then it’s all over. My wife tends to bottle it up inside.
    Everyone’s different. Mostly works for us.
    On swingback, every election is different. Some might hear similarities to others, as now could be either 1992 or 1997, but that’s just similarities, and it’s hard to say which of those two will be closest. It could be 2010 too.
    And the sun is shining, her maj made it to and past the jubilee and I have cricket later. A good day.

    My parents never argued, or swore, or lost their tempers - they were quietly affectionate with each other and me. It was both lovely and a terrible preparation for my own relationships - I thought that having rows was something that only happened in soap operas where they needed a bit of drama, and when I had a relationship with someone who was excitingly passionate and lost her temper at the least provocation, I was completely at sea.

    Not sure that there's a single good model!

    On topic, I wonder if this guy posts here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/11/labour-certain-to-win-wakefield-jon-tonge-mystic-meg-politics-predictions

    He still thinks Johnson will be out this year.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    There is virtually zero narrative in Wales for independence not least because labour, conservative and lib dems are all pro union
    Yet a quarter of the population want it, up from one sixth just a few years ago.
    Sometimes, political ideas take root in the population without politicians or the media leading on it.
    The polling is showing somethinig. Your challenge is to decide what it is and why it's happening. I've given you my view: independence is a growing -- not fast but not slowly -- and the reason is extreme toxicity of the current Conservative party. The facts solidly support the first point, and the second point is conjecture.
    Another chunk of shift like that and you are beginning to get into the levels where PC will start doing still better in the Senedd and then in Westminster.

    In any case, there is not much point in HYUFD going on about Unionist support from the WLDs as they have so little in the way of bums on seats. Only 1 in the Senedd. Compared with 13 for PC.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
    Considering 47% of Welsh voters voted to Remain in the EU and 64% of Welsh voters did not vote Tory in 2019, it is actually astonishing the support for Welsh independence is still as low as it is
    Do YOU think Welsh independence is a good idea?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Maybe you should stop getting distracted and focus instead on why labour are not cutting through and are bombing in the polls?

    Has there ever been a more vacuous hated PM and government from so obviously split infighting party? Yet her majesty opposition are going backward towards them. Even Ant and Dec can see that.

    The next VONC might be in Starmer. 😆
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,382
    edited June 11
    A generic idea for a cartoon:

    If or when it might be relevant to Boris and/or trump: the man dressed in a sorcerer's robe pulling a simulacrum of himself out of a hat. I wonder: would the trump figure it have a long nose? What would the Boris "familiar" look like?
  • Starmer opposes the strikes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
    Considering 47% of Welsh voters voted to Remain in the EU and 64% of Welsh voters did not vote Tory in 2019, it is actually astonishing the support for Welsh independence is still as low as it is
    Do YOU think Welsh independence is a good idea?
    No
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 279


    Absolutely true. And thirty two loyalists are not going to change their minds anytime soon.

    The question is -- *are* they loyalists, or are they simply MPs who don't currently see a convincingly better alternative? The former won't change their minds, but the latter could well be persuadable at some point, given a combination of time in which events do not come to Boris's rescue, plus some figure emerging as a clearer alternative leader who polls well. The benefit of this confidence vote, I think, is that it's demonstrated to any ambitious would-be-leader that the discontent is not limited to 30 or 40, but that already 148 would vote against even with no obvious successor. That seems like a pretty firm foundation to try to build on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    There is virtually zero narrative in Wales for independence not least because labour, conservative and lib dems are all pro union
    Yet a quarter of the population want it, up from one sixth just a few years ago.
    Sometimes, political ideas take root in the population without politicians or the media leading on it.
    The polling is showing somethinig. Your challenge is to decide what it is and why it's happening. I've given you my view: independence is a growing -- not fast but not slowly -- and the reason is extreme toxicity of the current Conservative party. The facts solidly support the first point, and the second point is conjecture.
    Another chunk of shift like that and you are beginning to get into the levels where PC will start doing still better in the Senedd and then in Westminster.

    In any case, there is not much point in HYUFD going on about Unionist support from the WLDs as they have so little in the way of bums on seats. Only 1 in the Senedd. Compared with 13 for PC.
    Almost 80% of Welsh AMs in the Senedd are Unionists still
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965
    edited June 11
    ydoethur said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    With all due respect to Mr Johnson he is substantially more impressive than the woeful Andrew RT Davies.
    I have no idea why he is still there - utterly dreadful
    What’s worse is that this is his second go.

    As the saying runs, insanity is doing the same thing twice in the expectation of a different result.
    The cupboard really is bare for the Conservatives in Wales, particularly in Westminster.

    I have been watching in awe at ruddy- faced Simon Hart's abject defence of Johnson. My own diminutive friend Alun Cairns, who it has to be said is an excellent constituency MP, wrote me a lovely email explaining how that nice Johnson had beaten the Covid Pandemic and Putin, and had personally been fully exonorated after a rigorous police investigation over Partygate. This was after I had written to him explaining if he neutered BigDog he would be in pole position to be Welsh Secretary on Johnson's removal. It's like he didn't believe me, so in reply he sent me even more far-fetched nonsense!
  • I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
    I remain sceptical he will be ousted now this side of a GE.

    The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
    And if there was, would they want it so late in the day with tricky election soon in them? If they fancy the leadership they wait now don’t they?
    If they want to be party leader, sure. But not if they want to be PM.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 11
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    It's very quiet on here.

    If Johnson sticks around for the next two years then we're in for a really unpleasant time. These 'red meat' policies are only going to increase, turning this once great country into a cesspit of hate.

    I know that a lot of you Conservatives on here agree about this, for which I'm grateful.

    Good morning

    We are doing our best supporting the 148 to remedy the problem
    It's the next 32 you need to be working on, and they are steadfast in their support for BigDog.
    I am not convinced, especially as 65 plus grassroots chairs are about to demand his resignation and Welsh conservatives about to declare independence from the party

    New leader for Conference
    In my opinion the previous “lose a vote of confidence this badly and you are soon out” doesn’t apply here.

    Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.

    The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?

    Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.

    Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
    I remain sceptical he will be ousted now this side of a GE.

    The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
    And the membership will be looking for someone to be right of Boris on economics and just as hardline on Brexit.
    wether it happens like that remains to be seen. Rather than call you plain wrong, let’s just wait and see. To be wedded to Boris Brexit is to be wedded to Fuck Business. To say Boris Brexit is sacrosanct because it’s perfect Brexit is just plain laughable.

    Yes the Tories can off to the right HY if they want. But if they ever want to win again after Boris, they will have to come back to the centre.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    We need to get civil servants back to their desks, so that we can sack then in person.
    Definite MRDA on that (2) tweet, tbf.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965

    I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election

    You have indeed.

    I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,081

    We need to get civil servants back to their desks, so that we can sack then in person.

    But as ever they seem incapable of levelling with public.

    This policy gets them a day’s good headlines in the Daily Mail.

    But when govt depts start spelling out what will need to be chopped to make these cuts, they’ll be in a world of pain.

    It’s government by spasm. ENDS

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1535542218521460738
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    I see the Welsh conservatives are considering a breakaway now..

    Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party

    Anyone with any doubt about how toxic Boris is in some quarters need only look at how Welsh independence polls have shifted. Pre Boris, with the standard "Should Wales be an independent country?" question, the average was about 17%. Since Boris became PM, 17% is the minimum, and it was an outlier. The outlier on the maximum side was a staggering 42%. There have been two polls with support in the 30s. The mean seems to be at around 25%.

    Note that this is an electorate that has seen a Scottish indyref and an EU ref, so is far from naive. And in the latter actually voted FOR Brexit, so what could be driving the increase in Welsh independence support since Boris became PM, if not Boris?
    What a load of rubbish. Under Johnson the Tories got 36% in Wales in 2019, their highest voteshare in 100 years there.

    25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.

    Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
    I do agree it bears no relevance to the present debate in Wales, but the 36% in 2019 has long gone and in the recent Welsh poll all North Wales conservative mps will be out of office in 24
    It's far from wholly irrelevant than in the past few years about 1 in 12 Welsh men and women have switched from not wanting independence to wanting it. And that's on top of the 1 in 6 who already wanted it. Something is happening.
    Considering 47% of Welsh voters voted to Remain in the EU and 64% of Welsh voters did not vote Tory in 2019, it is actually astonishing the support for Welsh independence is still as low as it is
    Do YOU think Welsh independence is a good idea?
    No
    And I agree (though it's not for me to say, really).
    Which is why I find it odd that you think it's "astonishing" that support for it isn't higher.

    In my view, Welsh independence has pretty powerful drawbacks that ought to put a lot of people off, but SOMETHING is either attracting people to it or repelling them from the status quo. I think it's the latter, something is repelling people, and I think I know what it is.
    The Welsh have always broadly hated the Tories, so it's not just that. There's something else happening. Something that's turning people from "I can live with this" to "nope, I'm out".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,728
    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    We need to get civil servants back to their desks, so that we can sack then in person.
    Definite MRDA on that (2) tweet, tbf.
    I’ll sack the ones at the DfE over Zoom for free if they like.

    Apart from the ones who attended that party. I want to sack them in person…
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,615
    Today is the day to make my elderflower champagne and make liqueur chocolates from the leftover sloes from my sloe gin (together with orange zest and cinnamon).
  • Woke Prince Charles attacking Boris again
  • Applicant said:

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
    I’m paying it,
  • I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election

    You have indeed.

    I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
    Why are you so certain Pete?
  • The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    Thanks for posting. Very good article. The site is poorer for Mr Meeks’ absence.

    I do admire his, and Charles’, willpower in staying away from PB. Sometimes I have a break, tell myself that’s it, there’s better things to do with my time, no more, but I always end up slinking back.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,029
    Genuine question. Can someone explain to me why Alex Davies has been jailed for 8 1/2 years? Looking at the reports it states he was a member of a banned fascist group and held shocking prejudices. I would presume a sentence of that length would require someone to be committing or plotting major acts of violence?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965
    ydoethur said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    We need to get civil servants back to their desks, so that we can sack then in person.
    Definite MRDA on that (2) tweet, tbf.
    I’ll sack the ones at the DfE over Zoom for free if they like.

    Apart from the ones who attended that party. I want to sack them in person…
    There were no parties! Except for that massive hooley at Durham Miners Institute.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    That’s not the true reason he left the site, Nick.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    edited June 11
    Jonathan said:

    Very day Boris stays, is a day wasted. This country will not move forward until he goes. It will continue to eat itself.

    It needn't be. It could be a day Starmer made his way up to the plate. Too much pussyfooting around. Starmer has to improve and if he's not able to there are not too many months left to make a change. They need someone articulate and commanding which Starmer isn't at the moment.

    I saw this earlier and I reckon it's about right. The winners from Johnson's humiliations are not Labour but just another ugly wing of Johnson's own party.

    https://news.sky.com/story/theres-one-clear-winner-after-boris-johnsons-grim-week-and-its-not-keir-starmer-or-the-tory-rebels-12631454
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,830
    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    Liz Truss rejects Boris Johnson’s order to slash size of civil service and demands 1,000 more staff instead
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/18826044/liz-truss-wants-bigger-civil-service/ (from a couple of days ago)
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,185

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    What are the solutions to the issues that Alastair raises?

    It would appear that there are no quick wins and any changes would require progress over 2 parliaments on a consistent basis.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    Have we had a go at a food policy that includes ' an increase in the use of “responsibly sourced wild venison”' yet?

    Which is, apparently, the latest idea emanating from No 10. At least, according to the Guardian!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965

    I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election

    You have indeed.

    I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
    Why are you so certain Pete?
    I am a political conspiracy theorist. Moreso after the Met suggesting they didn't investigate Abbagate because they thought Gray was investigating Abbagate, and Gray not investigating Abbagate because she thought the Met was investigating Abbagate.

    Priti will be bending Jo Farrell's ear ten times every day. Her predecessor has criticised her for being railroaded by the local MP and the Daily Mail.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,878

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    The one argument for Brexit that I had some sympathy for was the idea that British politicians used the EU to avoid taking responsibility for their decisions. However, as Alastair argues the pantomime of the relationship with the EU is still performing that function even though we've left.

    We have serious problems that are being neglected, and there's no sign of that changing while Brexit squats in political consciousness.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,497

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    Yes, excellent as always from Mr Meeks. And it is absolutely easy to draw from it both his general case that of course we should be in the EU, and also the other case that, obviously, we were right to leave.

    Though of course no-one thinks we should have left in the way we did.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    edited June 11

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    That’s not the true reason he left the site, Nick.
    Correct. It was because there was an ignoramous trolling around and he'd had enough..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    Applicant said:

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
    I’m paying it,
    There’s no doubt I was lucky to attend uni when I did, I.e. before the current fees and loans system.

    That said we have decisions to make about higher education. If you as a country wish to send 50% of kids to uni, someone has to pay. It is unpalatable to many to make it out of general taxation. So you either have a graduate tax, or some kind of loan. The loans we have are, as described, a capped graduate tax. I understand why you resent the increase in interest rates. It must feel like you are getting a raw deal. But you did get your degree, which has presumably aided your career, so you are earning more than you might have done.
    I’d also note almost everywhere in the world funds uni in similar ways. American TV shows are endlessly on about the college fund, as an example of families budgeting to pay for it.
    I don’t think we want to turn back the clock and restrict uni to 5 to 10% of the population, so it’s got to be paid for somehow.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534

    Woke Prince Charles attacking Boris again

    And free-speech warrior and royal servant Sir Nigel Farage calling for his cancellation from the monarchy as a result.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    edited June 11

    Applicant said:

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
    I’m paying it,
    There’s no doubt I was lucky to attend uni when I did, I.e. before the current fees and loans system.

    That said we have decisions to make about higher education. If you as a country wish to send 50% of kids to uni, someone has to pay. It is unpalatable to many to make it out of general taxation. So you either have a graduate tax, or some kind of loan. The loans we have are, as described, a capped graduate tax. I understand why you resent the increase in interest rates. It must feel like you are getting a raw deal. But you did get your degree, which has presumably aided your career, so you are earning more than you might have done.
    I’d also note almost everywhere in the world funds uni in similar ways. American TV shows are endlessly on about the college fund, as an example of families budgeting to pay for it.
    I don’t think we want to turn back the clock and restrict uni to 5 to 10% of the population, so it’s got to be paid for somehow.
    My next policy.

    Cut number of people going to uni by half and make the remainder free
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,376
    Roger said:

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    That’s not the true reason he left the site, Nick.
    Correct. It was because there was an ignoramous trolling around and he'd had enough..
    no change there then........
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,487

    I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election

    You have indeed.

    I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
    Why are you so certain Pete?
    I am a political conspiracy theorist. Moreso after the Met suggesting they didn't investigate Abbagate because they thought Gray was investigating Abbagate, and Gray not investigating Abbagate because she thought the Met was investigating Abbagate.

    Priti will be bending Jo Farrell's ear ten times every day. Her predecessor has criticised her for being railroaded by the local MP and the Daily Mail.
    But surely, if Starmer and Rayner are as awful as most on the right say they are, Patel and Johnson would want them to stay in place so that they can wallop them at the next GE?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975
    Roger said:

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    That’s not the true reason he left the site, Nick.
    Correct. It was because there was an ignoramous trolling around and he'd had enough..
    Not really, he was really quite out of order at the end. He seemed to believe that his partners live was endangered by Brexit preventing medication getting through. There was never any prospect of that. He became rather abusive.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044
    Roger said:

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    That’s not the true reason he left the site, Nick.
    Correct. It was because there was an ignoramous trolling around and he'd had enough..
    Same happened to Charles.

    Why can’t people disagree agreeably.

    As Peter Capaldi’s incarnation of the Doctor said ‘be kind’.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,435

    Woke Prince Charles attacking Boris again

    This is why I think the monarchy may be in trouble when Charles becomes King. He's either not as careful as the Queen, or he doesn't agree that he should be so neutral as to be beyond suspicion.

    And realistically, the man has led such an incredibly unusual life - there is going to be some issue where he is way out of touch with the public... eventually this will cause a pretty big controversy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    My recollection is more of him being the assailant.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044

    Applicant said:

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
    I’m paying it,
    There’s no doubt I was lucky to attend uni when I did, I.e. before the current fees and loans system.

    That said we have decisions to make about higher education. If you as a country wish to send 50% of kids to uni, someone has to pay. It is unpalatable to many to make it out of general taxation. So you either have a graduate tax, or some kind of loan. The loans we have are, as described, a capped graduate tax. I understand why you resent the increase in interest rates. It must feel like you are getting a raw deal. But you did get your degree, which has presumably aided your career, so you are earning more than you might have done.
    I’d also note almost everywhere in the world funds uni in similar ways. American TV shows are endlessly on about the college fund, as an example of families budgeting to pay for it.
    I don’t think we want to turn back the clock and restrict uni to 5 to 10% of the population, so it’s got to be paid for somehow.
    My next policy.

    Cut number of people going to uni by half and make the remainder free
    Which is fine, and has some merit for sure.

    How would you tackle student debt though ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,965

    I’ve believed for months Johnson will lead them into the next election

    You have indeed.

    I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
    Why are you so certain Pete?
    ...but see @Roger 's post below. It may work in our favour.

    The (quite possibly unfair) hatchet job done on Starmer, by the tabloids, the Tories and the Labour left when Johnson was riding high, I believe is difficult to come back from.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    Applicant said:

    Great my student loan is only inflating by 7% now, thanks Tories

    It's not a debt, just a capped graduate tax. Unless you're super well paid you're never "paying it off" anyway.
    I’m paying it,
    There’s no doubt I was lucky to attend uni when I did, I.e. before the current fees and loans system.

    That said we have decisions to make about higher education. If you as a country wish to send 50% of kids to uni, someone has to pay. It is unpalatable to many to make it out of general taxation. So you either have a graduate tax, or some kind of loan. The loans we have are, as described, a capped graduate tax. I understand why you resent the increase in interest rates. It must feel like you are getting a raw deal. But you did get your degree, which has presumably aided your career, so you are earning more than you might have done.
    I’d also note almost everywhere in the world funds uni in similar ways. American TV shows are endlessly on about the college fund, as an example of families budgeting to pay for it.
    I don’t think we want to turn back the clock and restrict uni to 5 to 10% of the population, so it’s got to be paid for somehow.
    My next policy.

    Cut number of people going to uni by half and make the remainder free
    You don’t believe the education is important? Most people seem to regard increasing educational standards as a good thing. The number of poor quality courses is not a high as parts of the media like to sugggest ‘David Beckham studies’ etc.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,785
    Scott_xP said:

    🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with ⁦@eirnolsoe⁩ @FT /1
    https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0

    So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2

    So Sir Humphrey leaks a memo that it's a bad idea to cut civil service jobs? Colour me surprised.

    Next up in the play book - "we will have to take on more staff in order to implement the cuts..."
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, who IIRC left the site partly because he was assailed for being too zealously anti-Brexit. He still is, but critical of the EU too. As always, a smooth read.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef

    My recollection is more of him being the assailant.
    Quite. The threads still exist if anyone wishes to revisit.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,497

    Genuine question. Can someone explain to me why Alex Davies has been jailed for 8 1/2 years? Looking at the reports it states he was a member of a banned fascist group and held shocking prejudices. I would presume a sentence of that length would require someone to be committing or plotting major acts of violence?

    You have to look at the judge's reasoning, which they give when sentencing. If it has been published online I haven't seen it. The Judiciary.uk website has recently become less good at doing this than it was.

This discussion has been closed.