Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com
Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year – politicalbetting.com
After a week in which Johnson easily survived the attempt by some Conservative MP’s to oust him inevitably the PM exit year betting market has moved sharply.
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It does look like he has survived and that the rebels shot their bolt too early. Still deeply suspicious that he triggered that himself.
I’m inclined to let my ‘out before party conference’ bet run.
Dear Sir Graham
Please add this to your collection of 53 letters to make the 54th saying I have no confidence in myself.
Yours in confidence
Boris
If Labour started to get 10%+ leads and head towards majority territory that might change things but the polls are still showing a hung parliament on the whole. Plus no alternative Tory leader polls much better than Boris either
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/11/uk/boris-johnson-leadership-rivals-analysis-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html
Has Johnson sent MI6 round to wave an empty sports bag at him, or something 🤷♀️
Can’t blame them. You wouldn’t want to be tethered to BoJos party
The clamour for him to go is only going to increase as he loses the by elections and the privilege committee produce a damming report
✍️ "The problem for Tories isn’t just the lack of a viable successor to Boris Johnson. It’s also the distinct lack of Brexiteerism in any of his potential replacements." | Writes Camilla Tominey https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/10/missing-brexiteer-candidate-tory-leadership-race/
As has been said repeatedly, in theory he has a year. Others pms have also had a year, but been gone far sooner. I’d be amazed if Johnson is still in power in 12 months time.
25% in a referendum is a landslide defeat and Plaid even lost seats in this year's local elections.
Wales having a sister Tory party like the CSU in Bavaria for the German CDU is no problem at all
You don't have the votes to remove him
I’d be more interested in 12 months time and BJ is still there if the journalist came out and said their speculation at the time was wrong. Fat chance of that.
However Wales also voted for Brexit and Boris got the highest Tory voteshare in Wales in 2019 since World War 2, that is undeniable and also a fact
https://on.ft.com/3xEpuu0
So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2
Indeed, it is irrelevant as labour are more popular than in a long time and that is your rejection of Boris vote, not Plaid
Besides, Johnson also has lots of options to bolster his position. There were absolutely no raised eyebrows when he excluded Grieve and Co. He could withdraw the whip from twenty, one- nation Tories and still have a majority of forty, which sees him comfortably through to January 2025.
Lady Thatcher’s end had 2 key differences, she was wedded to community charge and wouldn’t U turn on it, and it was good old days of strong cabinets not cheerleaders, so big beasts rebelled, resigning from cabinet and those that remained telling her it’s over night before she withdrew from race she was in - none of that applies to this scenario.
The Sir John Major actually wasn’t soon removed by his party or gone within a year, don’t know how people can claim he was - it was soon so close to a General Election territory, like it is in this instance another vonc didn’t happen, many who fancied taking over wouldn’t have had much time as PM before possibly losing the election so much preferred waiting for a post election leadership race before beginning their era - very much like in this instance, so good reason why a Penny or Wally riding over the hill to save Tory’s from this purgatory before the general election isn’t going to happen now is it?
Theresa May, especially after losing the DUP over her deal, was a sitting duck for ERG vote strikes and pressure in a way Boris simply isn’t. The real pressure that led to her going was it was impossible for her to go on without passing the Brexit she was strapped to, again doesn’t apply here.
Anyone talking up Boris going soon is actually missing the bigger picture here - the Conservative Party has allowed itself to be hijacked by vacuous populism like the GOP in America. What is Johnsonism - especially fiscally - Is it even the good old winning Conservatism brand? Anyone thinking once Johnson goes all this mess instantly unwinds might be kidding themselves. Do Tory successors stick rigidly to Boris’s hard Brexit deal? Can Boris promises be achieved if they stop borrowing, taxing and spending? Can Johnsonsism even be achieved with high tax and borrowing for big spending, or does governing not work simple quick as that?
As the saying runs, insanity is doing the same thing twice in the expectation of a different result.
What is happening is Labour are receiving the boost anti Boris vote
The fundamental issue is there is no obvious replacement who commands sufficient support from the membership.
Not sure that there's a single good model!
On topic, I wonder if this guy posts here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/11/labour-certain-to-win-wakefield-jon-tonge-mystic-meg-politics-predictions
He still thinks Johnson will be out this year.
In any case, there is not much point in HYUFD going on about Unionist support from the WLDs as they have so little in the way of bums on seats. Only 1 in the Senedd. Compared with 13 for PC.
Has there ever been a more vacuous hated PM and government from so obviously split infighting party? Yet her majesty opposition are going backward towards them. Even Ant and Dec can see that.
The next VONC might be in Starmer. 😆
If or when it might be relevant to Boris and/or trump: the man dressed in a sorcerer's robe pulling a simulacrum of himself out of a hat. I wonder: would the trump figure it have a long nose? What would the Boris "familiar" look like?
I have been watching in awe at ruddy- faced Simon Hart's abject defence of Johnson. My own diminutive friend Alun Cairns, who it has to be said is an excellent constituency MP, wrote me a lovely email explaining how that nice Johnson had beaten the Covid Pandemic and Putin, and had personally been fully exonorated after a rigorous police investigation over Partygate. This was after I had written to him explaining if he neutered BigDog he would be in pole position to be Welsh Secretary on Johnson's removal. It's like he didn't believe me, so in reply he sent me even more far-fetched nonsense!
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/britain-the-third-lost-decade-beckons-588f8f21d5ef
Yes the Tories can off to the right HY if they want. But if they ever want to win again after Boris, they will have to come back to the centre.
I am however convinced it will not be Starmer ( or Rayner) who will be facing him. They are 100% getting FPNs, and that might also be to Labour's benefit.
This policy gets them a day’s good headlines in the Daily Mail.
But when govt depts start spelling out what will need to be chopped to make these cuts, they’ll be in a world of pain.
It’s government by spasm. ENDS
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1535542218521460738
Apart from the ones who attended that party. I want to sack them in person…
I do admire his, and Charles’, willpower in staying away from PB. Sometimes I have a break, tell myself that’s it, there’s better things to do with my time, no more, but I always end up slinking back.
I saw this earlier and I reckon it's about right. The winners from Johnson's humiliations are not Labour but just another ugly wing of Johnson's own party.
https://news.sky.com/story/theres-one-clear-winner-after-boris-johnsons-grim-week-and-its-not-keir-starmer-or-the-tory-rebels-12631454
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/18826044/liz-truss-wants-bigger-civil-service/ (from a couple of days ago)
It would appear that there are no quick wins and any changes would require progress over 2 parliaments on a consistent basis.
Which is, apparently, the latest idea emanating from No 10. At least, according to the Guardian!
Priti will be bending Jo Farrell's ear ten times every day. Her predecessor has criticised her for being railroaded by the local MP and the Daily Mail.
We have serious problems that are being neglected, and there's no sign of that changing while Brexit squats in political consciousness.
Though of course no-one thinks we should have left in the way we did.
That said we have decisions to make about higher education. If you as a country wish to send 50% of kids to uni, someone has to pay. It is unpalatable to many to make it out of general taxation. So you either have a graduate tax, or some kind of loan. The loans we have are, as described, a capped graduate tax. I understand why you resent the increase in interest rates. It must feel like you are getting a raw deal. But you did get your degree, which has presumably aided your career, so you are earning more than you might have done.
I’d also note almost everywhere in the world funds uni in similar ways. American TV shows are endlessly on about the college fund, as an example of families budgeting to pay for it.
I don’t think we want to turn back the clock and restrict uni to 5 to 10% of the population, so it’s got to be paid for somehow.
Cut number of people going to uni by half and make the remainder free
Why can’t people disagree agreeably.
As Peter Capaldi’s incarnation of the Doctor said ‘be kind’.
And realistically, the man has led such an incredibly unusual life - there is going to be some issue where he is way out of touch with the public... eventually this will cause a pretty big controversy.
How would you tackle student debt though ?
The (quite possibly unfair) hatchet job done on Starmer, by the tabloids, the Tories and the Labour left when Johnson was riding high, I believe is difficult to come back from.
Next up in the play book - "we will have to take on more staff in order to implement the cuts..."
In terms of party politics, it might suit the government to turn the current system into an explicit graduate tax. One trouble for the government with the current system is that all (or almost all) recent graduates have a huge debt hanging over them.
The point which is often missed by those who say, well, only the well off have to repay their loans, is that even those below the threshold still have this debt, and this might cause them to resent the Conservative government which imposed the system. And because they are not repaying it, the amount owed goes up and up. So if I were Boris, I'd want to fix George Osborne's error in rejecting the proposed graduate tax in 2010.
Good morning, everyone.
F1: Perez is available at 5 (5.25 with boost), third the odds top 2 each way, to top third practice.
Probably value.