Johnson holds on with 58.7% of the vote – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Hard to disagree.Scott_xP said:Keir Starmer: "Conservative MPs made their choice tonight. They have ignored the British public and hitched themselves and their party firmly to Boris Johnson, and everything that he represents."
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1533905852268261377
Was there a stain on his trousers where he'd actually wet himself laughing?0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
Next few weeks, Tories below 30% IMHO
It’s a good point, tonight the Tory Party voted to own Partygate, that was mostly Boris Partygate until his party endorsement tonight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Next few weeks, Tories below 30% IMHO
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He didn't say much.rottenborough said:
Can he wipe the smile off his face?tlg86 said:Keir Starmer giving a statement.
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I do not see how anyone can think "Boris can turn this around", it already looked dire, it now looks catastrophic for the Tories.wooliedyed said:Like i said earlier, the 211 will be crying in 2 months time about how unfair it is they are 15 to 20 points adrift without a hint of self awareness
Twats0 -
I'm getting up at 5am tomorrow to do the work I haven't done today.TheScreamingEagles said:Right I better finish writing this report that I started at 7am and I thought I would have finished by lunchtime.
So far I have written a sentence.
Night all.1 -
I think she should. Judging by Saturday night, her voice is not what it was.Eabhal said:Does Ross resign?
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I doubt Starmer has had a better evening as LOTO.nico679 said:A terrible result for the country but a great result for the opposition parties .
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So, we're into the drive by reaming scenario. I assume that a cabinet reshuffle is coming later this week. Rishi fired?0
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It’s taken some mismanagement for Johnson’s majority in his Party to be lower than his majority in the Commons.
https://twitter.com/maxiefreedman/status/15339055259597578264 -
The LD and Green on 2% each, compared to 7% and 8% in the previous Wakefield poll. The tactical squeeze is on.ping said:
Iirc, there was a survation, today, which had David on 1%.El_Capitano said:Fifth like the Conservatives in Wakefield. Come on @david_herdson, we're rooting for you.
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I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.DavidL said:
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."Aslan said:Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.1 -
Agreed. There will be more scandals and disasters certainly. But what would convince the 211 that hasn't already happened?MoonRabbit said:How, without losing a confidence vote, is Boris now forced out as quickly as some of you suggesting?
He’s not a resigner.
So what happens to remove him this year?
Only way I can see is if enough tory mps indicate they no longer have confidence in him & he purges and goes for another election?0 -
After Starmers statement, I’d seriously consider them. What a contrast2
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What can be done if they do? He'd be suspended and surely have to instantly resign as PM since he'd no longer be an MP.Stocky said:
Fuckin' 'ell it will be something if Tory MPs vote with the Opposition on such a vote. Surely not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Surely the 1922 can only change the rules if a majority want it changing, which surely can't be met by the same people who voted against him today or submitted the letters against him already?Stocky said:A better result for Johnson that I thought.
Tiverton and Honiton is crucial.
If CP wins, pressure will be off. If CP loses, 1922 will be badgered to change rules to allow another go at ousting him I suspect - but how can they when Johnson has the support of a decent majority of his MPs?
They shot their bolt too early.
The problem for Boris seems to possibly be a possible personal sanction vote following the Privileges Committee report? 148 against him today wasn't enough to oust him, but 148 voting with Labour and the rest of Parliament could be enough to suspend him from the House couldn't it?
That's the one way a minority of Tory MPs could force the issue, if they were prepared to do that, but that requires them to vote with the Opposition.0 -
Very interesting.Foxy said:
The LD and Green on 2% each, compared to 7% and 8% in the previous Wakefield poll. The tactical squeeze is on.ping said:
Iirc, there was a survation, today, which had David on 1%.El_Capitano said:Fifth like the Conservatives in Wakefield. Come on @david_herdson, we're rooting for you.
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He will not resign.Andy_JS said:
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.Razedabode said:He is done. Awful result
I could see a few Conservative MPs, if they lose both seats, privately hoping Starmer will lay down a VONC.... and wondering how they can vote with Labour without Johnson or the whips knowing [1].
[1] They can't, I know.1 -
Not sure the second half is true……
The Tories are divided.
They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.
Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/15339064059708293140 -
Do you mean, 'on the importance on them?'another_richard said:
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.DavidL said:
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."Aslan said:Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
I don't think anyone now thinks Johnson has either of those.0 -
Short, snappy and will actually be read. I like it.TheScreamingEagles said:Right I better finish writing this report that I started at 7am and I thought I would have finished by lunchtime.
So far I have written a sentence.5 -
What is it about 2019 intake Tory MPs which means most share a brain cell? Who is this tool Scott Benton on Sky? Reading out the spin lines with his eyes glazed in a monotone.2
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I think they’re mostly in Devon by nowPeter_the_Punter said:
Indeed, Bart.BartholomewRoberts said:Not the result I wanted, but a democratic result and that has to be accepted and respected. The MPs have flunked it, but that was their choice and they've made their bed now and its time to move on and let the voters have their say next time.
Deep in the heart of Somerset I hear the sound of laughter and the clinking of glasses from the LD campaign room.0 -
Wait for the resignations to start rolling in. The payroll vote now look as sleazy as Johnson himselfRochdalePioneers said:
On no planet will they now draw the line and move on.BartholomewRoberts said:Not the result I wanted, but a democratic result and that has to be accepted and respected. The MPs have flunked it, but that was their choice and they've made their bed now and its time to move on and let the voters have their say next time.
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Exactly. What do they see in Boris that nobody else can see? For God's sake, when people who queue up to wave at the Queen are booing a Tory PM by any normal measure that PM would be considered done for. So what is it?Aslan said:Unless you are a nutcase like Dorries who couldn’t hope to have influence under another leader, why would an MP vote to keep Boris? It makes no sense.
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So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.1
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Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.0 -
I'm sure someone wiser than me will say this but I suspect a few of the letters that were recently sent in were from Boris supporters who wanted the vote to take place BEFORE the by-election results came in.3
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Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.
Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.
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Yup. At this stage in proceedings, it is hard to see GE2024 as anything other than a Labour-led victory.MoonRabbit said:CorrectHorseBattery said:Next few weeks, Tories below 30% IMHO
It’s a good point, tonight the Tory Party voted to own Partygate, that was mostly Boris Partygate until his party endorsement tonight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Next few weeks, Tories below 30% IMHO
They have brought it upon themselves. I’m disappointed in them, but I guess the party has finally left me for now and it’s time for me to step away from them.0 -
The 23 GE has shortened.CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.3 -
He’s like a Borg drone ! Apparently this has renewed the clowns mandate to govern . Dear me what a moron .RochdalePioneers said:What is it about 2019 intake Tory MPs which means most share a brain cell? Who is this tool Scott Benton on Sky? Reading out the spin lines with his eyes glazed in a monotone.
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There won't be, Labour lead down to just 4% with Redfield todayStuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=9nCUn3EMDs71RuBdjZ5l6A0 -
Scott Benton of tiny brain update - he's just referred to the "British Conservative People".
Had no ideas HY was the MP for Blackpool South.0 -
Worst result in living memory of any Tory PM in an internal confidence vote0
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That does rather assume that it was backbenchers who voted against him. Given how many of them are admirers, that's a bold assumption.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
That's why a figure of over 140 was so important. It means several members of his own executive must have voted against him.3 -
That's nonsense. It is a secret ballot. Many ministers will have been hypocritical enough to vote against him having pledged public support.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.2 -
Next year, when @HYUFD is hoping the local elections will be the beginning of the Conservative fightback, those voters wanting to give Boris a kicking will still be able to vote against the Conservatives in large numbers.rottenborough said:Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.
Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.2 -
The only person who can spin this positively is HFUYD0
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Boris Corbyn 211
Sanity 1481 -
Why do they need a dead cat? He won a handsome victory that has President Zelinsky punching the air. The British public will now draw a line and move on. We can go back to hanging the wogs or whatever the migration policy is this week.Sandpit said:So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.
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I can believe they have a plan, though who knows if it will help. But is hard to argue that most of the energy in the Conservative Party is subordinate to the goal of preserving Boris.CarlottaVance said:Not sure the second half is true……
The Tories are divided.
They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.
Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314
It's not a case that he has to do that because he is attacked. He is attacked because he needs constant propping up. Leaders should not be a burden.0 -
This really is the worst outcome for the Conservative party, Boris really needs to go now for the good of the party! He is now in Office but not in power along with a discredited Cabinet.5
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That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?1 -
No mechanism.kinabalu said:
The 23 GE has shortened.CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.1 -
In 23 though. Don't really think so but maybe.MaxPB said:
Yes, it's the least likely of the scenarios of what happens next. Boris would lose his seat.JohnO said:
Absolutely he won’t be calling an election!CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
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RochdalePioneers said:
Why do they need a dead cat? He won a handsome victory that has President Zelinsky punching the air. The British public will now draw a line and move on. We can go back to hanging the wogs or whatever the migration policy is this week.Sandpit said:So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.
Drowning, not hanging ...RochdalePioneers said:
Why do they need a dead cat? He won a handsome victory that has President Zelinsky punching the air. The British public will now draw a line and move on. We can go back to hanging the wogs or whatever the migration policy is this week.Sandpit said:So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.
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Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.0 -
2
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You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.HYUFD said:
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose WakefieldAndy_JS said:
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.Razedabode said:He is done. Awful result
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.0 -
It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?1 -
Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.kinabalu said:
The 23 GE has shortened.CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.0 -
It's the "..and everything he that he represents" that will come back to haunt the Tories.ydoethur said:
Hard to disagree.Scott_xP said:Keir Starmer: "Conservative MPs made their choice tonight. They have ignored the British public and hitched themselves and their party firmly to Boris Johnson, and everything that he represents."
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1533905852268261377
Was there a stain on his trousers where he'd actually wet himself laughing?0 -
Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."4
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The sole purpose of the UK state is to preserve the Conservative Party. The sole purpose of the Conservative Party is ...kle4 said:
I can believe they have a plan, though who knows if it will help. But is hard to argue that most of the energy in the Conservative Party is subordinate to the goal of preserving Boris.CarlottaVance said:Not sure the second half is true……
The Tories are divided.
They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.
Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314
It's not a case that he has to do that because he is attacked. He is attacked because he needs constant propping up. Leaders should not be a burden.0 -
Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.kle4 said:
It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.
If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.0 -
It's been speculated, though personally i cannot see it - would there really have been that many differences in the vote given the by-elections are already widely considered to be very difficult at best?Ally_B1 said:I'm sure someone wiser than me will say this but I suspect a few of the letters that were recently sent in were from Boris supporters who wanted the vote to take place BEFORE the by-election results came in.
Plus they simply did not have control over the timing. We know from Brady that some people post dated their letters to be after the jubilee weekend, and for all Boris supporters knew the rebels were going to get to the figure by then already.0 -
The Tory VONC rules are flawed, they create a zombie zone where you can win and be hugely damaged. Continued leadership should require a super majority.
The best thing Boris could do now is trigger a leadership election and stand. I doubt there is a mechanism to do that. Worked for Corbyn.0 -
They have many splits and far too many egos. But policies? They are somewhat thinner on the ground. Boris today said that he was pledged to cut taxes. The month after the increase in NI hit peoples' wage packets. Shortly before the increase in CT. He has no policies that are worth a damn because he has no clear idea about what sort of country he wants. And, so far as I can see, nor does anyone else in the party.another_richard said:
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.DavidL said:
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."Aslan said:Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.1 -
Drown them. Then hang them. Its the only way to be sure.Carnyx said:RochdalePioneers said:
Why do they need a dead cat? He won a handsome victory that has President Zelinsky punching the air. The British public will now draw a line and move on. We can go back to hanging the wogs or whatever the migration policy is this week.Sandpit said:So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.
Drowning, not hanging ...RochdalePioneers said:
Why do they need a dead cat? He won a handsome victory that has President Zelinsky punching the air. The British public will now draw a line and move on. We can go back to hanging the wogs or whatever the migration policy is this week.Sandpit said:So what’s tomorrow’s dead cat then? I’ll go with 50% emergency cut in fuel duty.
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160 or so are on the payroll vote, not 80TheValiant said:Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.0 -
Which is, of course, what happened to May over Brexit, but Johnson's government is so rudderless that I don't see the issue they would try to force through where they could lose in a similar way.BartholomewRoberts said:
What can be done if they do? He'd be suspended and surely have to instantly resign as PM since he'd no longer be an MP.Stocky said:
Fuckin' 'ell it will be something if Tory MPs vote with the Opposition on such a vote. Surely not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Surely the 1922 can only change the rules if a majority want it changing, which surely can't be met by the same people who voted against him today or submitted the letters against him already?Stocky said:A better result for Johnson that I thought.
Tiverton and Honiton is crucial.
If CP wins, pressure will be off. If CP loses, 1922 will be badgered to change rules to allow another go at ousting him I suspect - but how can they when Johnson has the support of a decent majority of his MPs?
They shot their bolt too early.
The problem for Boris seems to possibly be a possible personal sanction vote following the Privileges Committee report? 148 against him today wasn't enough to oust him, but 148 voting with Labour and the rest of Parliament could be enough to suspend him from the House couldn't it?
That's the one way a minority of Tory MPs could force the issue, if they were prepared to do that, but that requires them to vote with the Opposition.
Anything too contentious can be shelved. There's no deadline.1 -
The line among the nutters, oops. Ministers is Johnson only got 51% of MPs votes in 2019 so this shows he has grown in popularity.*
The minor detail that he sacked almost everyone who voted against him and huge numbers of new MPs who admired him came in instead seems to have been rather overlooked.
*This is true, and Twitter is wrong. The 2-1 margin was among the wider membership.0 -
The Conservatives got 28% NEV in the 2019 local elections, those seats are the ones up next year and today's Redfield has the Tories on 34% ie 6% better than 2019stodge said:
Next year, when @HYUFD is hoping the local elections will be the beginning of the Conservative fightback, those voters wanting to give Boris a kicking will still be able to vote against the Conservatives in large numbers.rottenborough said:Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.
Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.0 -
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.MoonRabbit said:
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.HYUFD said:
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose WakefieldAndy_JS said:
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.Razedabode said:He is done. Awful result
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
Something will give.1 -
The payroll vote is 172 apparentlyTheValiant said:Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.0 -
I agree with TimAndy_JS said:Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
2 -
A real-life Ben Swain. Blinky Benton.RochdalePioneers said:Scott Benton of tiny brain update - he's just referred to the "British Conservative People".
Had no ideas HY was the MP for Blackpool South.0 -
JRM is an idiot. Altogether and all the time.BartholomewRoberts said:
Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.kle4 said:
It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.BartholomewRoberts said:
That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.Stuartinromford said:
Put it this way;TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.Stocky said:
By what mechanism?TheScreamingEagles said:My predictions hold true.
1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
@Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.
If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
I don't think that's controversial.2 -
That's an absurdly high number.Roger said:
172 ApparentlyTheValiant said:Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.0 -
Wasn't that in a completely different set of elections, different areas? So not comparable at all.HYUFD said:
The Conservatives got 28% NEV in the 2019 local elections, those seats are the ones up next year and today's Redfield has the Tories on 34% ie 6% better than 2019stodge said:
Next year, when @HYUFD is hoping the local elections will be the beginning of the Conservative fightback, those voters wanting to give Boris a kicking will still be able to vote against the Conservatives in large numbers.rottenborough said:Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.
Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.0 -
Yes could be time to look at that again. My fav market.Stocky said:
No mechanism.kinabalu said:
The 23 GE has shortened.CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Pretty bad result this for Johnson though. Over 40% against without coordination or a clear successor.0 -
** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/15339092688602152980 -
It depends whether you count PPS's as on the payroll.kle4 said:
That's an absurdly high number.Roger said:
172 ApparentlyTheValiant said:Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.0 -
Right now, the best chance is Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with TimAndy_JS said:Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
0 -
To be fair, the same is true for everyoneBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with TimAndy_JS said:Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
0 -
Everyone get ready to wikipedia a bunch of unknown PPS's and junior ministers you've never heard of.Scott_xP said:** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/15339092688602152982 -
What done for Lady Thatcher was the Cabinet rebellions, that won’t happen here.RobD said:
Major actually survived years and he remained leader at election.
What done for May was running out of road trying to get Brexit done, so honourably stepped aside. She also suffered MP rebellions withholding votes in the house that Boris won’t suffer in the coming months.
It’s hard to see how Boris is forced out now, unless he he loses a further VONC. Snd truth is 148 might go down as well as up, if Boris, his government improves and the polls improves.
It’s a good night for opposition parties tonight is my conclusion.1 -
Though actually a new leader is likely to make the Labour lead larger...Stark_Dawning said:
Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.kinabalu said:
The 23 GE has shortened.CorrectHorseBattery said:He's going to have to call a GE.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.0 -
I will not be *shocked* if one of those is Penny Mordaunt.Scott_xP said:** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/15339092688602152981 -
That's an interesting point and yes its true, he got 59% today and only 51% in 2019.ydoethur said:The line among the nutters, oops. Ministers is Johnson only got 51% of MPs votes in 2019 so this shows he has grown in popularity.*
The minor detail that he sacked almost everyone who voted against him and huge numbers of new MPs who admired him came in instead seems to have been rather overlooked.
*This is true, and Twitter is wrong. The 2-1 margin was among the wider membership.
There is surely a very high correlation between those who voted for him today and then, or against him today and then. Hunt, Hammond etc were never backing him in the first place.0 -
Good grief, I thought it was in Somerset! How embarrassing.IanB2 said:
I think they’re mostly in Devon by nowPeter_the_Punter said:
Indeed, Bart.BartholomewRoberts said:Not the result I wanted, but a democratic result and that has to be accepted and respected. The MPs have flunked it, but that was their choice and they've made their bed now and its time to move on and let the voters have their say next time.
Deep in the heart of Somerset I hear the sound of laughter and the clinking of glasses from the LD campaign room.
Better slink off quietly to bed and dream of the new start that our beloved leader will be making tomorrow.
Nite all. Been fun.0 -
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 74% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.numbertwelve said:
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.MoonRabbit said:
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.HYUFD said:
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose WakefieldAndy_JS said:
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.Razedabode said:He is done. Awful result
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
Something will give.0 -
He struggled as a Councillor in Calderdale.boulay said:
A real-life Ben Swain. Blinky Benton.RochdalePioneers said:Scott Benton of tiny brain update - he's just referred to the "British Conservative People".
Had no ideas HY was the MP for Blackpool South.
0 -
Why would anyone resign tomorrow?TheScreamingEagles said:
I will not be *shocked* if one of those is Penny Mordaunt.Scott_xP said:** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298
Shouldn't they have resigned this morning if they were going to do so?0 -
York Outer MP Julian Sturdy calls on the Prime Minister to consider his position following tonight's vote.
Says he voted against Boris Johnson tonight after he had said it was 'in the public interest' for PM to quit following Sue Gray report https://twitter.com/JulianSturdy/status/15339087126157271061 -
Difficult to see how Johnson moves on from this. What if - and hear me out here - they suggest legislating to remove the Northern Ireland protocol tomorrow...?
Constitutionally, I don't see how you can sustain a situation where less than a third of the Commons has confidence in the PM. The principle of "he's a completely unfit individual, but he's OUR completely unfit individual" only gets you so far as a party. He needs to keep almost three quarters of the MPs who've just said he shouldn't be PM onside at all times to have a majority. How does that work?0 -
I suppose they are unpaid, but they are bag carriers so they might as well be.Andy_JS said:
It depends whether you count PPS's as on the payroll.kle4 said:
That's an absurdly high number.Roger said:
172 ApparentlyTheValiant said:Just looking at the results in a little more detail. How many of the 359 are on the payroll? 80 or so? Ministers, cabinet ministers and select committee members?
So Johnson got 131 out of the non-payroll vote?
Assuming, of course, all the payroll vote DID support him.1 -
Just got in.
That's an absolutely perfect result for the Opposition.
Enough for him to claim vindication just.
But boy oh boy.2 -
Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.HYUFD said:
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.numbertwelve said:
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.MoonRabbit said:
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.HYUFD said:
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose WakefieldAndy_JS said:
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.Razedabode said:He is done. Awful result
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
Something will give.1 -
But the figures aren’t comparable, because the LDs and independents always do better in local elections and the major parties worse. You need to compare like with like - so look at the national VI polls for around the time of those localsHYUFD said:
The Conservatives got 28% NEV in the 2019 local elections, those seats are the ones up next year and today's Redfield has the Tories on 34% ie 6% better than 2019stodge said:
Next year, when @HYUFD is hoping the local elections will be the beginning of the Conservative fightback, those voters wanting to give Boris a kicking will still be able to vote against the Conservatives in large numbers.rottenborough said:Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.
Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.0 -
Boris really is Corbyn’s fatter twin. Can he be removed via a leadership challenge?
The Tory rules seem almost as toothless as Labour’s were in the Corbyn years.2
