Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
I suspect not. When the next GE comes around a) most people will have completely forgotten about today's events b) a hefty chunk of those who haven't will buy into the inevitable spin that it was just a bunch of Remoaners who never forgave Boris for Brexit. Boris lives to fight another day.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
By what mechanism?
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.
Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.
Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.
If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
How many of the payroll vote would expect to be on the payroll of an alternate PM though? Patel, Dorris, JRM and Braverman must all know they'd all be out and presumably there are plenty of other lesser fish in the same boat (!)
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
No mechanism.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.
I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
The line among the nutters, oops. Ministers is Johnson only got 51% of MPs votes in 2019 so this shows he has grown in popularity.*
The minor detail that he sacked almost everyone who voted against him and huge numbers of new MPs who admired him came in instead seems to have been rather overlooked.
*This is true, and Twitter is wrong. The 2-1 margin was among the wider membership.
It also ignores the fact that a confidence vote simply isn't the same. Many MPs who voted for someone else in the 2019 leadership contest will nonetheless have had confidence in Johnson until quite recently - voting for someone else in an internal party election doesn't mean you aren't at peace with the result.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
< Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.
Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.
If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
That's democracy and in many ways why the opposition parties are happy with tonight's events. The removal of Johnson and the Conservatives via the ballot box at the next General Election is the right and proper course.
As a Conservative supporter, you might not like it but you would respect the verdict of the electorate.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
Yes, he cannot simply change policies (for one he has no intention of doing so) since the issue for most is him personally. He cannot change his behaviour (since he has also admitted he has no intention of doing so), and they still backed him.
"2m ago 21.33 Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
No mechanism.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.
I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
What do you see improving the Tories' prospects over the next two years?
Everyone get ready to wikipedia a bunch of unknown PPS's and junior ministers you've never heard of.
You would have thought this morning was the right time, if they were intelligent enough to realise that.
Back to what I said earlier, Boris chose Monday night rather than Wednesday, and avoided momentum building from resignations before the vote. He’s bounced a win.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.
Though actually a new leader is likely to make the Labour lead larger...
I keep hearing this. Then I remember the type of leader Labour has a habit of electing.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
"2m ago 21.33 Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."
After a strong start as vaccines minister I have to say Zahawi is garnering a bit of a reputation of being willing to push stupid spin lines very eagerly. It does not make him look very bright (no one does whilst spinning, since the whole point is you are are transparently trying to fool people).
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
Ministers will be considering positions, and the by-elections will be presented by media and opponents (other parties and his own) as the People's Confidence Vote.
Resignation by the end of the month, and I'm betting accordingly.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
No mechanism.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.
I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
What do you see improving the Tories' prospects over the next two years?
Finishing the job of booting out the liar.
Until then, how do those who voted for Boris today plan to door-knock? Deeply disappointed with the 30-odd who could have made the difference. I really thought they had more political nous.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
By what mechanism?
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
Not the result I wanted, but a democratic result and that has to be accepted and respected. The MPs have flunked it, but that was their choice and they've made their bed now and its time to move on and let the voters have their say next time.
Indeed, Bart.
Deep in the heart of Somerset I hear the sound of laughter and the clinking of glasses from the LD campaign room.
I think they’re mostly in Devon by now
Good grief, I thought it was in Somerset! How embarrassing.
Better slink off quietly to bed and dream of the new start that our beloved leader will be making tomorrow.
Nite all. Been fun.
Somerset byelections are likely to come along later in the year.
It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
By what mechanism?
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
Difficult to see how Johnson moves on from this. What if - and hear me out here - they suggest legislating to remove the Northern Ireland protocol tomorrow...?
Constitutionally, I don't see how you can sustain a situation where less than a third of the Commons has confidence in the PM. The principle of "he's a completely unfit individual, but he's OUR completely unfit individual" only gets you so far as a party. He needs to keep almost three quarters of the MPs who've just said he shouldn't be PM onside at all times to have a majority. How does that work?
He only does stuff that three quarters of his internal opponents want to do. It's a difficult job of internal party management, but they're all Brexit-supporting Tories, so there should be a whole heap of things they can find that they agree on.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
No mechanism.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Yes could be time to look at that again. My fav market.
Pretty bad result this for Johnson though. Over 40% against without coordination or a clear successor.
Once again, we're in that space where Decent Chap Rules should apply. The British Constitution is full of them.
OK, a win is a win. But a Decent Chap recognises that they can't carry on at some threshold quite a bit lower than that. Or better, that they can (for a bit), but they shouldn't. And it doesn't get spelt out, because a Decent Chap doesn't need to be told.
One of the secrets of Boris Johnson's success is that he doesn't behave as a Decent Chap.
What is it about 2019 intake Tory MPs which means most share a brain cell? Who is this tool Scott Benton on Sky? Reading out the spin lines with his eyes glazed in a monotone.
He’s like a Borg drone ! Apparently this has renewed the clowns mandate to govern . Dear me what a moron .
How do the votes of 60% of the MPs of a party which received 43.6% of the vote at the general election ‘renew a mandate’ ?
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
One of them to Boris
Yes. I just read the British General Election Study 2019. A key part of Boris beating Corbyn so handsomely was his ability to unify votes behind him whilst his opponents split their target vote. Is that looking promising for 2024?
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
By what mechanism?
Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.
On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.
If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.
Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.
Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.
If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
How many of the payroll vote would expect to be on the payroll of an alternate PM though? Patel, Dorris, JRM and Braverman must all know they'd all be out and presumably there are plenty of other lesser fish in the same boat (!)
Probably the overwhelming majority of the payroll vote would.
Some of them might be out, but there was a large overlap between the payroll vote of Cameron and May, ditto May (especially including people who'd ever served under her considering how many she lost during the Parliamentary rebellions) and Boris.
A few wouldn't, but they'd probably be mostly high profile exceptions not the norm.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
One was hailed as a triumph.
Well it wasn't, even though it was a much better result than expected and not that far off.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it. It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
No, it's a great idea. You finish the job of chaining the entire Tory Party to the fat albatross by forcing all the rebels to vote for him.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it. It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
"The tragedy of Boris’s premiership is that it has now descended into farce The PM may have won the confidence vote, but the Government has missed its chance to transform Britain SHERELLE JACOBS" (£)
After Zahawi‘s interview on Sky, my missus said “never seen that one before. He seems a bit of a knobhead doesn’t he?”.
And yet there are those who think him a credible unity candidate to replace Boris. After he finished his blathering, Starmer came on. She switched him off before he could reach his second nasal syllable.
2024 is going to be a good year for Mr and Mrs NOTA I think.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
One was hailed as a triumph.
Well it wasn't, even though it was a much better result than expected and not that far off.
😀 Labours subsequent 2017 Conference not much like a victory rally to you then?
I think to be fair to HY post, he is right, Corbyn was massively defeated in a vonc, if you look at where he was in his party in late 2016 the number of GE votes for Labour June the following year is the point HY is making about we don’t know for sure what happens next.
I think though, the Tory Party tying itself to the Boris today will likely help the opposition parties now,
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.
Though actually a new leader is likely to make the Labour lead larger...
I keep hearing this. Then I remember the type of leader Labour has a habit of electing.
Labour leadership rules have changed. Starmer has done his work. Notably 20% of the Parliamentary party is required for a nomination.
All comes down to the next election, strongly believe there will be a lot of votes, for the anything but Tory Party
Anti-Con tactical voting is going to be truly awesome. Prepare for some astonishing results.
If Boris has any more scandals in the public domain then we could be looking at a Canadian Conservatives scenario.
No we aren't. We were looking at that in 2019 maybe when May's Tories got just 9% in the European elections to 31% for the Brexit Party. We aren't now with the Tories on 34%, still 4% more than 1997 and 18% higher than the Canadian Conservatives got in 1993 when Reform overtook them
He should remember that the SNP unanimously supported Nicola Sturgeon when she told bare faced lies to the committee about the Salmond JR.
Sure! The SNP are Not Good. But the choice I have is that toadying lickspittle Duguid who sabotages his own constituents, or the SNP. So its SNP. The least worst option.
Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
I think that is largely because they haven't had any policy for a long time. Random announcements on a broad range of populist issues that rarely turn into legislation or action.
Let's see what happens when someone has to write a manifesto.
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him
2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him
2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2
The Tories lost their Majority as a result
If the world had stopped in mid- 2018 you'd have a point. It didn't.
Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
I agree with Tim
How do you see it playing out then, for someone who won’t put party first and resign?
As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
With 148 against and likely dreadful by election results, resignations even defections, it will not be long before reality bites and he goes possible by a voting rebellion on his side
Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.
Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.
Something will give.
Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
He did lose both those elections.
2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him
2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2
The Tories lost their Majority as a result
Our posts are not contradictory. He did very well from what was expected, that has to be recognised, but he did still lose. The Tories were the most popular party in the UK in 2017 (more popular than Corbyn's Labour), and Theresa May the more popular party leader, and they formed a government. That's a loss.
And you cannot simply ignore what followed afterwards either. Boris won a big majority in 2019, if he were to lose it entirely in 2024 pointing to the first would not make the latter not exist.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
Yes, he seems to have pulled off that unlikely feat - unassailable to untenable in less than a year.
Betfair rules on the BoJo to announce resignation market.
Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void
If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
In order to get a majority to get through the Commons May needed all of those backing her, and all of those who opposed her too, plus some from other parties, which she was patently unable to do.
With 211 "loyalists" Boris on any issue needs to get just over 2/3rds of those who voted against him not to be rebel, in order to win a Commons vote.
Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
Broadly I think there's a divide between those happy being Continuity UKIP and those who want to return to a perceived party of cautious conservatism. An example is the Northern Ireland Protocol and whether to break the treaty with the EU. Johnson won't be able to satisfy both factions on that.
Comments
I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
As a Conservative supporter, you might not like it but you would respect the verdict of the electorate.
"2m ago
21.33
Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813344414703617?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533822102092095490?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
Back to what I said earlier, Boris chose Monday night rather than Wednesday, and avoided momentum building from resignations before the vote. He’s bounced a win.
Putins Helpers 148
Step A - Get plan
Step B - Enact plan
Didn't stop him winning a majority.
I.E "at the next election would you vote for Boris Johnson’s Conservative party" vs "at the next election would you vote for the Conservative party"
Tory rebels voting against Govt legislation more freely?
Ministers will be considering positions, and the by-elections will be presented by media and opponents (other parties and his own) as the People's Confidence Vote.
Resignation by the end of the month, and I'm betting accordingly.
Until then, how do those who voted for Boris today plan to door-knock? Deeply disappointed with the 30-odd who could have made the difference. I really thought they had more political nous.
Although I can understand why a Corbynite would love Johnson given his policies and personality are virtually indistinguishable from the Jezaster's.
OK, a win is a win. But a Decent Chap recognises that they can't carry on at some threshold quite a bit lower than that. Or better, that they can (for a bit), but they shouldn't. And it doesn't get spelt out, because a Decent Chap doesn't need to be told.
One of the secrets of Boris Johnson's success is that he doesn't behave as a Decent Chap.
Our hero!
#WhiskyAndRevolver
Some of them might be out, but there was a large overlap between the payroll vote of Cameron and May, ditto May (especially including people who'd ever served under her considering how many she lost during the Parliamentary rebellions) and Boris.
A few wouldn't, but they'd probably be mostly high profile exceptions not the norm.
Maggie 204 (57.3%) Hezza 152 (42.7%)
Boris 211 (58.8%) Against 148 (41.2%)
As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
If Boris has any more scandals in the public domain then we could be looking at a Canadian Conservatives scenario.
Tory MPs were frit. They've made their choice, I wish they'd chosen otherwise, but they haven't.
The PM may have won the confidence vote, but the Government has missed its chance to transform Britain
SHERELLE JACOBS" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/06/06/tragedy-boriss-premiership-has-now-descended-farce/
Boris would drink the whisky and then shoot the Grey Suits.
sniff
sniff
draw the line
then the next line
then the next line
Looks deranged. Eyes running. Sniffing.
So he's either on the Surrey Heath Marching Powder. Or he's been weeping.
And yet there are those who think him a credible unity candidate to replace Boris. After he finished his blathering, Starmer came on. She switched him off before he could reach his second nasal syllable.
2024 is going to be a good year for Mr and Mrs NOTA I think.
Utterly deluded
I think to be fair to HY post, he is right, Corbyn was massively defeated in a vonc, if you look at where he was in his party in late 2016 the number of GE votes for Labour June the following year is the point HY is making about we don’t know for sure what happens next.
I think though, the Tory Party tying itself to the Boris today will likely help the opposition parties now,
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests
On June 23 and at the GE.
15% swing Conservative to Labour. Put that through Baxter - Labour majority of 208, Conservatives down to 129 seats (even lower than 1997).
Let's see what happens when someone has to write a manifesto.
2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2
The Tories lost their Majority as a result
Many might disagree.
Note too even on that Wakefield Survation poll the Tories only 1% below what Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
And you cannot simply ignore what followed afterwards either. Boris won a big majority in 2019, if he were to lose it entirely in 2024 pointing to the first would not make the latter not exist.
I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now.
Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void
If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?
Maybe from Chequers?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
In order to get a majority to get through the Commons May needed all of those backing her, and all of those who opposed her too, plus some from other parties, which she was patently unable to do.
With 211 "loyalists" Boris on any issue needs to get just over 2/3rds of those who voted against him not to be rebel, in order to win a Commons vote.