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Johnson holds on with 58.7% of the vote – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Tory party: Just enough of us have faith to keep him in office a while longer. Onwards and upwards. Reshuffle. New policy goals. Tax cuts. Cake for all.

    Voters: He was on the piss while we could not attend our own family funerals. The minute I get the chance I will vote against the fucker.

    Next year, when @HYUFD is hoping the local elections will be the beginning of the Conservative fightback, those voters wanting to give Boris a kicking will still be able to vote against the Conservatives in large numbers.
    The Conservatives got 28% NEV in the 2019 local elections, those seats are the ones up next year and today's Redfield has the Tories on 34% ie 6% better than 2019
    But the figures aren’t comparable, because the LDs and independents always do better in local elections and the major parties worse. You need to compare like with like - so look at the national VI polls for around the time of those locals
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Boris really is Corbyn’s fatter twin. Can he be removed via a leadership challenge?

    The Tory rules seem almost as toothless as Labour’s were in the Corbyn years.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."

    I agree with Tim
    To be fair, the same is true for everyone
    Have you asked @HYUFD?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Not sure the second half is true……

    The Tories are divided.

    They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

    Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314

    These days you don't actually need to have a plan, just say that you do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    https://twitter.com/michael_tsb/status/1533902734969163776?s=21&t=AoZlv-sR-uEbnGzwJIwV6A

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Labour did. And look at how that turned out.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    I suspect not. When the next GE comes around a) most people will have completely forgotten about today's events b) a hefty chunk of those who haven't will buy into the inevitable spin that it was just a bunch of Remoaners who never forgave Boris for Brexit. Boris lives to fight another day.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    My predictions hold true.

    1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.

    2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon

    By what mechanism?

    Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
    I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
    Put it this way;

    @Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:

    About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.


    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888

    On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
    That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.

    If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
    It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.
    Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.

    Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.

    If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
    How many of the payroll vote would expect to be on the payroll of an alternate PM though? Patel, Dorris, JRM and Braverman must all know they'd all be out and presumably there are plenty of other lesser fish in the same boat (!)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    edited June 2022
    .
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    No mechanism.

    I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
    Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.

    I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765

    Boris really is Corbyn’s fatter twin. Can he be removed via a leadership challenge?

    The Tory rules seem almost as toothless as Labour’s were in the Corbyn years.

    No. The only way to remove an incumbent Tory leader is a VONC.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Scott Benton is the mirror image of Richard Burgon. How did we end up with these no marks?
  • ydoethur said:

    The line among the nutters, oops. Ministers is Johnson only got 51% of MPs votes in 2019 so this shows he has grown in popularity.*

    The minor detail that he sacked almost everyone who voted against him and huge numbers of new MPs who admired him came in instead seems to have been rather overlooked.

    *This is true, and Twitter is wrong. The 2-1 margin was among the wider membership.

    It also ignores the fact that a confidence vote simply isn't the same. Many MPs who voted for someone else in the 2019 leadership contest will nonetheless have had confidence in Johnson until quite recently - voting for someone else in an internal party election doesn't mean you aren't at peace with the result.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Boris hasn't done good enough. Time to go.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Well what a thoroughly depressing evening.

    I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    <
    Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.

    Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.

    If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.

    That's democracy and in many ways why the opposition parties are happy with tonight's events. The removal of Johnson and the Conservatives via the ballot box at the next General Election is the right and proper course.

    As a Conservative supporter, you might not like it but you would respect the verdict of the electorate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Taz said:

    https://twitter.com/michael_tsb/status/1533902734969163776?s=21&t=AoZlv-sR-uEbnGzwJIwV6A

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
    Yes, he cannot simply change policies (for one he has no intention of doing so) since the issue for most is him personally. He cannot change his behaviour (since he has also admitted he has no intention of doing so), and they still backed him.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    Celebrating with a cheeky can of Tennents
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Spin from Nadhim Zahawi.

    "2m ago
    21.33
    Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
    Of Labour members and 53% of Tory members and 59% of Tory voters also still back Boris with Yougov today
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813344414703617?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533822102092095490?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    IanB2 said:

    Worst result in living memory of any Tory PM in an internal confidence vote

    And with no organized rebellion. Just general organic disillusionment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    .

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    No mechanism.

    I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
    Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.

    I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
    What do you see improving the Tories' prospects over the next two years?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Alistair said:

    Not sure the second half is true……

    The Tories are divided.

    They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

    Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314

    These days you don't actually need to have a plan, just say that you do.
    That's really not just a 'these days' thing. I think we tend to remember the occasions there was a plan more than the many vague assurances.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

    Everyone get ready to wikipedia a bunch of unknown PPS's and junior ministers you've never heard of.
    You would have thought this morning was the right time, if they were intelligent enough to realise that.

    Back to what I said earlier, Boris chose Monday night rather than Wednesday, and avoided momentum building from resignations before the vote. He’s bounced a win.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Zelensky 211

    Putins Helpers 148
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Farooq said:

    Vote SNP.

    Yes, that's the only option for me now
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
    Duguid voted confidence.

    I'm voting SNP.
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    One of them to Boris
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Scott_xP said:

    ** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

    Has someone checked in on Lord Falconer?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
    Of Labour members and 53% of Tory members and 59% of Tory voters also still back Boris with Yougov today
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813344414703617?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533822102092095490?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
    Not just Labour members. You've forgotten the registered supporters issue (not that they made a difference, I should add).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.
    Though actually a new leader is likely to make the Labour lead larger...
    I keep hearing this. Then I remember the type of leader Labour has a habit of electing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Alistair said:

    Not sure the second half is true……

    The Tories are divided.

    They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

    Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314

    These days you don't actually need to have a plan, just say that you do.
    BORIS'S SECRET RECOVERY PLAN

    Step A - Get plan
    Step B - Enact plan
  • Taz said:

    https://twitter.com/michael_tsb/status/1533902734969163776?s=21&t=AoZlv-sR-uEbnGzwJIwV6A

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    How does he recover. How does he lose his reputation for being a liar and being untrustworthy. I just cannot see how he can. He’s perceived as fundamentally dishonest. Can’t see a way back.
    He was before 2019 too.

    Didn't stop him winning a majority.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Andy_JS said:

    Spin from Nadhim Zahawi.

    "2m ago
    21.33
    Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live

    Indeed, are we suggesting Wallace, Mordaunt, panel or Sunak wouldn't be as staunch supporters of Ukraine?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I need a named party leader vs party name comparative poll stat.

    I.E "at the next election would you vote for Boris Johnson’s Conservative party" vs "at the next election would you vote for the Conservative party"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Alistair said:

    Not sure the second half is true……

    The Tories are divided.

    They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

    Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314

    These days you don't actually need to have a plan, just say that you do.
    BORIS'S SECRET RECOVERY PLAN

    Step A - Get plan
    Step B - Enact plan
    Steps C-Z amend plan from time to time depending on the headlines.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    We will hear from our glorious undefeated Leader forthwith.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,462
    Defections upcoming?

    Tory rebels voting against Govt legislation more freely?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    "One point is that it makes Hunt the clear king over the water - the only credible successor to comes out against Johnson."

    FPT.

    Top comment from @NickPalmer

    Yes, I think Hunt is now the man to beat. He can hold his head high.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    After a strong start as vaccines minister I have to say Zahawi is garnering a bit of a reputation of being willing to push stupid spin lines very eagerly. It does not make him look very bright (no one does whilst spinning, since the whole point is you are are transparently trying to fool people).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    After Starmers statement, I’d seriously consider them. What a contrast

    After Starmer's statement I'm thinking of Les Streeting with the script written by Archie Norman
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    Having fought and won a leadership election in the interim.
    Of Labour members and 53% of Tory members and 59% of Tory voters also still back Boris with Yougov today
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813344414703617?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533822102092095490?s=20&t=aaun0-jb_dVkv8Yuk7NJ_w
    Not just Labour members. You've forgotten the registered supporters issue (not that they made a difference, I should add).
    Close enough to Tory voters, basically Labour core voters
  • He's done.

    Ministers will be considering positions, and the by-elections will be presented by media and opponents (other parties and his own) as the People's Confidence Vote.

    Resignation by the end of the month, and I'm betting accordingly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    .

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    No mechanism.

    I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
    Why? There's 2023 and that'll still be up to eighteen months before the next election.

    I'm certainly not backing Starmer as the *next* PM at current odds.
    What do you see improving the Tories' prospects over the next two years?
    Finishing the job of booting out the liar.

    Until then, how do those who voted for Boris today plan to door-knock? Deeply disappointed with the 30-odd who could have made the difference. I really thought they had more political nous.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    My predictions hold true.

    1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.

    2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon

    By what mechanism?

    Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
    I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
    Put it this way;

    @Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:

    About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.


    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888

    On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
    There won't be, Labour lead down to just 4% with Redfield today
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=9nCUn3EMDs71RuBdjZ5l6A
    How mamy of the Con respondents were assuming someone other than BoJo would be leading the Conservatives?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    dixiedean said:

    We will hear from our glorious undefeated Leader forthwith.

    "Nothing has changed. You like that one, Theresa?"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    IanB2 said:

    Not the result I wanted, but a democratic result and that has to be accepted and respected. The MPs have flunked it, but that was their choice and they've made their bed now and its time to move on and let the voters have their say next time.

    Indeed, Bart.

    Deep in the heart of Somerset I hear the sound of laughter and the clinking of glasses from the LD campaign room.
    I think they’re mostly in Devon by now
    Good grief, I thought it was in Somerset! How embarrassing.

    Better slink off quietly to bed and dream of the new start that our beloved leader will be making tomorrow.

    Nite all. Been fun.
    Somerset byelections are likely to come along later in the year.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Scott Benton is the mirror image of Richard Burgon. How did we end up with these no marks?

    A debate between those two would be amusing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    One was hailed as a triumph.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    My predictions hold true.

    1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.

    2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon

    By what mechanism?

    Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
    I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
    Put it this way;

    @Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:

    About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.


    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888

    On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
    There won't be, Labour lead down to just 4% with Redfield today
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=9nCUn3EMDs71RuBdjZ5l6A
    How mamy of the Con respondents were assuming someone other than BoJo would be leading the Conservatives?
    It was taken before the VONC was even announced
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Alistair said:

    Not sure the second half is true……

    The Tories are divided.

    They are focused on propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

    Only Labour has a plan to fix the cost of living crisis, grow our economy and restore trust in politics.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1533906405970829314

    These days you don't actually need to have a plan, just say that you do.
    BORIS'S SECRET RECOVERY PLAN

    Step A - Get plan
    Step B - Enact plan
    Collect underpants.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Well what a thoroughly depressing evening.

    I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.

    Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it.
    It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Polruan said:

    Difficult to see how Johnson moves on from this. What if - and hear me out here - they suggest legislating to remove the Northern Ireland protocol tomorrow...?

    Constitutionally, I don't see how you can sustain a situation where less than a third of the Commons has confidence in the PM. The principle of "he's a completely unfit individual, but he's OUR completely unfit individual" only gets you so far as a party. He needs to keep almost three quarters of the MPs who've just said he shouldn't be PM onside at all times to have a majority. How does that work?

    He only does stuff that three quarters of his internal opponents want to do. It's a difficult job of internal party management, but they're all Brexit-supporting Tories, so there should be a whole heap of things they can find that they agree on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    If anyone wants to see an example of Corbyn Derangement Syndrome, just check out the final two posts on that last thread.

    Although I can understand why a Corbynite would love Johnson given his policies and personality are virtually indistinguishable from the Jezaster's.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    No mechanism.

    I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
    Yes could be time to look at that again. My fav market.

    Pretty bad result this for Johnson though. Over 40% against without coordination or a clear successor.
    Once again, we're in that space where Decent Chap Rules should apply. The British Constitution is full of them.

    OK, a win is a win. But a Decent Chap recognises that they can't carry on at some threshold quite a bit lower than that. Or better, that they can (for a bit), but they shouldn't. And it doesn't get spelt out, because a Decent Chap doesn't need to be told.

    One of the secrets of Boris Johnson's success is that he doesn't behave as a Decent Chap.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    Mr Johnson looking very pleased with himself tonight. It's a good result he says.

    Our hero!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    edited June 2022
    nico679 said:

    What is it about 2019 intake Tory MPs which means most share a brain cell? Who is this tool Scott Benton on Sky? Reading out the spin lines with his eyes glazed in a monotone.

    He’s like a Borg drone ! Apparently this has renewed the clowns mandate to govern . Dear me what a moron .
    How do the votes of 60% of the MPs of a party which received 43.6% of the vote at the general election ‘renew a mandate’ ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Celebrating with a cheeky can of Tennents

    Super ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Had Boris lost a tooth?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    It's over! He's done!

    #WhiskyAndRevolver
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    One of them to Boris
    Yes. I just read the British General Election Study 2019. A key part of Boris beating Corbyn so handsomely was his ability to unify votes behind him whilst his opponents split their target vote. Is that looking promising for 2024?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    Absolutely astonishing interview by Johnson . Is he sick or did he just drop some magic mushrooms!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    BJ drowning himself in a bucket. And sniffing! Has Mikey G been consoling with him?
  • kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    My predictions hold true.

    1) He's more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.

    2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon

    By what mechanism?

    Edit: I was referring to 2), not 1)
    I expect in the coming months the number of Tory MPs who have no confidence in the Prime Minister will reach 180+ and Sir Graham Brady will amend the rules.
    Put it this way;

    @Joe_Mayes has got his abacus out:

    About 160 MPs have government roles -- known as the payroll vote. The remaining 200 MPs are backbenchers. The vote tonight means that - stripping out the payroll vote - almost 75% of his backbenchers voted against Johnson.


    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1533905027680677888

    On those figures, the "a year of immunity" rule won't last. If there's sufficient pressure to finally flush the turd, there will be enough pressure to remove that rule.
    That's poor logic since the "payroll vote" were voting in a secret ballot, they could have ousted him if they wanted to.

    If they voted to keep him, that's their choice, they weren't compelled to do so. Besides there's no reason to "strip out" the payroll vote since they're MPs, why would you? When Blair was Prime Minister would you strip out the likes of Jack Straw who were on the payroll and only pay attention to the likes of Corbyn who weren't?
    It was silly of JRM and co to strip out the payroll vote when they lost to May, and it would be unfair to do it now it has happened to them.
    Yes, JRM was an idiot then and everyone recognised that.

    Hearing people who called JRM stupid for saying that then, now saying the same thing when the roles are reversed, is amusing.

    If you want rid of Boris as PM, then it needs to be done by voting against the Conservatives. That's the decision Tory MPs have made today.
    How many of the payroll vote would expect to be on the payroll of an alternate PM though? Patel, Dorris, JRM and Braverman must all know they'd all be out and presumably there are plenty of other lesser fish in the same boat (!)
    Probably the overwhelming majority of the payroll vote would.

    Some of them might be out, but there was a large overlap between the payroll vote of Cameron and May, ditto May (especially including people who'd ever served under her considering how many she lost during the Parliamentary rebellions) and Boris.

    A few wouldn't, but they'd probably be mostly high profile exceptions not the norm.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    God he's hopeless! Did nobody spot it before?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,153
    Taz said:

    Celebrating with a cheeky can of Tennents

    Super ?
    No, the kind with the blonde ladies on the back.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worst result in living memory of any Tory PM in an internal confidence vote

    Only(!) 19 years ago.
    PM…
    Ah, sorry! You'd have to go back to Thatcher. Still, that's living memory for many.
    No, proportionately it was worse than hers
    Maggie was toppled by a leadership challenge. Arguably Boris has done slightly better than Maggie.

    Maggie 204 (57.3%) Hezza 152 (42.7%)

    Boris 211 (58.8%) Against 148 (41.2%)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    One was hailed as a triumph.
    Well it wasn't, even though it was a much better result than expected and not that far off.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Andy_JS said:

    Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."

    I agree with Tim
    How do you see it playing out then, for someone who won’t put party first and resign?

    As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
  • Starmer was elected for this kind of scenario. It was always Labour's best route to power as I said at the time.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    Farooq said:

    Well what a thoroughly depressing evening.

    I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.

    Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it.
    It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
    No, it's a great idea. You finish the job of chaining the entire Tory Party to the fat albatross by forcing all the rebels to vote for him.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    mickydroy said:

    All comes down to the next election, strongly believe there will be a lot of votes, for the anything but Tory Party

    Anti-Con tactical voting is going to be truly awesome. Prepare for some astonishing results.

    If Boris has any more scandals in the public domain then we could be looking at a Canadian Conservatives scenario.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Farooq said:

    Well what a thoroughly depressing evening.

    I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.

    Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it.
    It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
    Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "The tragedy of Boris’s premiership is that it has now descended into farce
    The PM may have won the confidence vote, but the Government has missed its chance to transform Britain
    SHERELLE JACOBS" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/06/06/tragedy-boriss-premiership-has-now-descended-farce/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Farooq said:

    Vote SNP.

    Yes, that's the only option for me now
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
    Duguid voted confidence.

    I'm voting SNP.
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
    He should remember that the SNP unanimously supported Nicola Sturgeon when she told bare faced lies to the committee about the Salmond JR.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited June 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    It's over! He's done!

    #WhiskyAndRevolver

    Read today.
    Boris would drink the whisky and then shoot the Grey Suits.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing interview by Johnson . Is he sick or did he just drop some magic mushrooms!

    sniff
    sniff
    sniff
    draw the line
    then the next line
    then the next line

    Looks deranged. Eyes running. Sniffing.

    So he's either on the Surrey Heath Marching Powder. Or he's been weeping.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    After Zahawi‘s interview on Sky, my missus said “never seen that one before. He seems a bit of a knobhead doesn’t he?”.

    And yet there are those who think him a credible unity candidate to replace Boris. After he finished his blathering, Starmer came on. She switched him off before he could reach his second nasal syllable.

    2024 is going to be a good year for Mr and Mrs NOTA I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    Ooh, he's now claiming to be the most popular Conservative Leader in 40 years.

    Utterly deluded
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited June 2022
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    One was hailed as a triumph.
    Well it wasn't, even though it was a much better result than expected and not that far off.
    😀 Labours subsequent 2017 Conference not much like a victory rally to you then?

    I think to be fair to HY post, he is right, Corbyn was massively defeated in a vonc, if you look at where he was in his party in late 2016 the number of GE votes for Labour June the following year is the point HY is making about we don’t know for sure what happens next.

    I think though, the Tory Party tying itself to the Boris today will likely help the opposition parties now,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited June 2022

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's going to have to call a GE.

    The 23 GE has shortened.

    Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.

    Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
    Labour should leave the champers on ice for now. In a few days they could see the resignation of both their leader and his deputy, plunging them into an existential crisis.
    Though actually a new leader is likely to make the Labour lead larger...
    I keep hearing this. Then I remember the type of leader Labour has a habit of electing.
    Labour leadership rules have changed. Starmer has done his work. Notably 20% of the Parliamentary party is required for a nomination.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2022

    mickydroy said:

    All comes down to the next election, strongly believe there will be a lot of votes, for the anything but Tory Party

    Anti-Con tactical voting is going to be truly awesome. Prepare for some astonishing results.

    If Boris has any more scandals in the public domain then we could be looking at a Canadian Conservatives scenario.
    No we aren't. We were looking at that in 2019 maybe when May's Tories got just 9% in the European elections to 31% for the Brexit Party. We aren't now with the Tories on 34%, still 4% more than 1997 and 18% higher than the Canadian Conservatives got in 1993 when Reform overtook them
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    Vote SNP.

    Yes, that's the only option for me now
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
    Duguid voted confidence.

    I'm voting SNP.
    Welcome aboard! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿☀️💐
    He should remember that the SNP unanimously supported Nicola Sturgeon when she told bare faced lies to the committee about the Salmond JR.
    Sure! The SNP are Not Good. But the choice I have is that toadying lickspittle Duguid who sabotages his own constituents, or the SNP. So its SNP. The least worst option.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Well, if Tory MPs won't, the voters will.

    On June 23 and at the GE.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Just seen the Survation poll for Wakefield - small sample and long field work period ending last Wednesday so probably completely out of date.

    15% swing Conservative to Labour. Put that through Baxter - Labour majority of 208, Conservatives down to 129 seats (even lower than 1997).
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,092

    DavidL said:

    Aslan said:

    Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.

    No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
    I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.

    But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
    I think that is largely because they haven't had any policy for a long time. Random announcements on a broad range of populist issues that rarely turn into legislation or action.

    Let's see what happens when someone has to write a manifesto.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him

    2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2

    The Tories lost their Majority as a result
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    GIN1138 said:

    It's over! He's done!

    #WhiskyAndRevolver

    Judas!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    We have a robust economy apparently.
    Many might disagree.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    stjohn said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worst result in living memory of any Tory PM in an internal confidence vote

    Only(!) 19 years ago.
    PM…
    Ah, sorry! You'd have to go back to Thatcher. Still, that's living memory for many.
    No, proportionately it was worse than hers
    Maggie was toppled by a leadership challenge. Arguably Boris has done slightly better than Maggie.

    Maggie 204 (57.3%) Hezza 152 (42.7%)

    Boris 211 (58.8%) Against 148 (41.2%)

    The ‘arguably’ being that if you factor in the abstentions, 40.9% voted against Thatcher and 41.2% against Johnson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2022
    stodge said:

    Just seen the Survation poll for Wakefield - small sample and long field work period ending last Wednesday so probably completely out of date.

    15% swing Conservative to Labour. Put that through Baxter - Labour majority of 208, Conservatives down to 129 seats (even lower than 1997).

    Put Redfield's numbers in today and it is a hung parliament with the Tories just 20 seats behind Labour after the boundary changes.

    Note too even on that Wakefield Survation poll the Tories only 1% below what Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Andy_JS said:

    Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."

    I agree with Tim
    Well, it’s impossible to disagree: we’re all finished. It’s only a matter of time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him

    2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2

    The Tories lost their Majority as a result
    If the world had stopped in mid- 2018 you'd have a point. It didn't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The cabinet did for Thatcher, this cabinet will do nothing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Andy_JS said:

    Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."

    I agree with Tim
    How do you see it playing out then, for someone who won’t put party first and resign?

    As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
    With 148 against and likely dreadful by election results, resignations even defections, it will not be long before reality bites and he goes possible by a voting rebellion on his side
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2022

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He is done. Awful result

    Truly dreadful results in Tiverton and Wakefield may convince him to resign.
    He won't resign, he didn't after North Shropshire was lost so why would he resign if Tiverton was lost, though personally I think the Tories will narrowly win it but lose Wakefield
    You are right, Boris won’t put the party before himself and resign at any point, so none of the previous precedent mentioned by others matters a jot in this instance.

    Tories better hope Boris can fight back and pul a 1992 result out the bag now.
    No chance. A party can’t go into an election with a leader that over 40% of the parliamentary party don’t want to lead them.

    Something will give.
    Yes they can, Corbyn went into the 2017 and 2019 general elections with 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him.
    He did lose both those elections.
    2016 72% of the Labour parliamentary party having voted against him

    2017 He added 4m extra votes for Lab and the biggest increase in vote share since WW2

    The Tories lost their Majority as a result
    Our posts are not contradictory. He did very well from what was expected, that has to be recognised, but he did still lose. The Tories were the most popular party in the UK in 2017 (more popular than Corbyn's Labour), and Theresa May the more popular party leader, and they formed a government. That's a loss.

    And you cannot simply ignore what followed afterwards either. Boris won a big majority in 2019, if he were to lose it entirely in 2024 pointing to the first would not make the latter not exist.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited June 2022
    Boris will now lose both by-elections.
    I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.

    He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.

    I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now.
    Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.

    I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.

    I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    darkage said:

    It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.

    Yes, he seems to have pulled off that unlikely feat - unassailable to untenable in less than a year.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair rules on the BoJo to announce resignation market.

    Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void


    If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?

    Maybe from Chequers?
This discussion has been closed.