I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
In order to get a majority to get through the Commons May needed all of those backing her, and all of those who opposed her too, plus some from other parties, which she was patently unable to do.
With 211 "loyalists" Boris on any issue needs to get just over 2/3rds of those who voted against him not to be rebel, in order to win a Commons vote.
Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
Broadly I think there's a divide between those happy being Continuity UKIP and those who want to return to a perceived party of cautious conservatism. An example is the Northern Ireland Protocol and whether to break the treaty with the EU. Johnson won't be able to satisfy both factions on that.
"2m ago 21.33 Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."
Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
I agree with Tim
How do you see it playing out then, for someone who won’t put party first and resign?
As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
With 148 against and likely dreadful by election results, resignations even defections, it will not be long before reality bites and he goes possible by a voting rebellion on his side
I don’t buy it, the only slim chance you have left is action from the cabinet. It is very unlikely.
Hopefully Priti can railroad the police into convicting Starmer. Starmer has to resign, and that makes Mr Johnson innocent. Immediate 10 point Tory lead and another 80 seat Johnson GE victory.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
Very sadly I agree with that analysis (but slightly more bullish on Labour’s polling).
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it. It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
I am sure Starmer would jump at the chance of a GE tomorrow if he could. But calling for a VoNC he knows he cannot win would be a tactical error. And he doesn't seem to make many of those.
Better to wait and call for a vote on any Privileges Committee sanction against Johnson.
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
No he wasn't right. Why would more have voted differently in the weeks to come? Because of by-elections that they've already practically written off? A Standards report not due until the Autumn?
Pressure had been building for weeks. They'd already fallen short back in February, had they done so again they'd have been a laughing stock.
Good opportunity for Sunak. He resigns tomorrow saying that Boris’ comments re he would do it all over agin to the 1922 coupled with the clarity that Boris has left the party divided, possibly fatally so, means that he cannot continue to serve in govt.
He can only see infighting and distraction to govt whilst Boris still PM and at a time when the country needs a proper long term financial plan to get through the CoL crisis etc this is impossible and certainly is not the platform for what he thinks needs to be done.
He steps to back-benches for a few months assuming Boris eventually goes and hey presto he’s distanced himself from Boris, made a stand, can spin it how he likes, spends time listening to back benchers etc to create a programme for the country then steps forward when Boris is eventually defenestrated.
I know it’s highly unlikely but would, I feel, be quite a sly move as Sunak has nothing to lose - if he doesn’t become PM he can F off at next election and have a great life.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
Its the Privileges Committee that seems the only thing that I can see for him to be forced out, which nobody else is talking about.
If the Committee chooses to censure him and recommends suspending him (which I think only needs 1 or 2 Tory MPs on the Committee to recommend along with the opposition MPs), then if the MPs who voted to oust him today join with the Opposition MPs in voting for that, then he'd be out wouldn't he?
It doesn't take 180 Tory MPs if they find a way to vote with the Opposition. That's the only way I can see the issue being forced.
"2m ago 21.33 Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow."
Iain Dale pointing out that, in contrast to May and Major, senior cabinet members are keeping their heads down, not taking to the airwaves to shore him up
Betfair rules on the BoJo to announce resignation market.
Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void
If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?
Maybe from Chequers?
If he made a formal announcement from Chequers, then that would technically be outside Downing Street wouldn't it?
Anywhere not inside Downing Street is outside Downing Street, it doesn't say right outside or in front of 10 Downing Street.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
SKS is already above the 40% ceiling… in England and Wales. It is Sarwar’s poor Scottish numbers depressing Labour’s GB/UK VI figures.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
Its the Privileges Committee that seems the only thing that I can see for him to be forced out, which nobody else is talking about.
If the Committee chooses to censure him and recommends suspending him (which I think only needs 1 or 2 Tory MPs on the Committee to recommend along with the opposition MPs), then if the MPs who voted to oust him today join with the Opposition MPs in voting for that, then he'd be out wouldn't he?
It doesn't take 180 Tory MPs if they find a way to vote with the Opposition. That's the only way I can see the issue being forced.
I can see Boris “shaking off” a suspension. Indeed, I’d imagine he’d spin it as the final reckoning for Partygate beyond which “we can all draw a line”.
The cabinet did for Thatcher, this cabinet will do nothing.
The Thatcher situation was different as the system then meant there was going to be a further vote. So they had to tell Maggie (and did) that she was going to lose it - the dam couldn't hold and it was either Heseltine and humiliation, or escape with a tiny bit of dignity and someone she didn't loathe as successor.
I think Johnson will go very soon... but he doesn't have an immediate vote of Tory MPs to deal with.
2) He's been castrated tonight rather than euthanised, but the visit to vet to put him down is coming soon
How? Technically how? 🤷♀️
Even Boris has some shred of common sense. You can increase the pressure, more and more MPs opposing, ministerial resignations, and he'll go at some point. He cannot rule without consent.
If a majority of Tory MPs publicly oppose BJ, then there will be immense pressure for something to happen (i.e., changing the rules if necessary). An arbitrary rule saying no vote for another year is not going to stand up to clear evidence that a majority want him gone. So, all the "rebels" need to be persuaded to state publicly that they voted no confidence, and another 10% of MPs need to be switch sides. That's plausible.
What will cause MPs to do that? Disastrous by-election results: not just losses, but bad losses. Disastrous polling: it can take a fortnight for events to feed through fulling to the polls, so let's see what the polls say at the end of the month. Voters don't like divided parties. Voters don't like parties that aren't addressing the issues that matter to them. When there's blue on blue fire, voters agree with the criticisms from both sides.
The Privileges Committee is to come and has the potential to be the most aggressive investigation yet. Gray and the Police pulled their punches. At worst, the Privileges Committee could recommend suspending Johnson from Parliament and the Commons could vote for it.
Ultimately, there's already enough rebel Tory MPs to defeat Johnson in a VONC in Parliament.
Will any of that happen? Who knows? I would guess it will be a slow, painful journey. I think Boris is safe for several months. But ultimately you don't stay in power if your only defense is waiting for a(n arbitrary) 12 month clock to tick down.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
The mechanism, were Tory MPs suddenly to discover a collective spine, would be a quick change of the party rules governing leadership contests.
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
Nah, the MPs were frit. It was time to hold the vote.
If they weren't going to be convinced by now, what was going to convince them? For anyone still loyal Tiverton would be dismissed as a midterm by-election, which is precisely what it is. They had all the the information we have and they made their choice anyway.
Hopefully Priti can railroad the police into convicting Starmer. Starmer has to resign, and that makes Mr Johnson innocent. Immediate 10 point Tory lead and another 80 seat Johnson GE victory.
Don't think Starmer potentially having to resign because of Beergate will damage Labour now. It might have done it the Conservatives had got rid of Johnson. It will look like Labour doing the right thing, unlike the Tories.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
I totally agree. What more did they need? If the Tory Party was going to do the right thing and dissociate from Boris and his crimes, their chance was tonight.
So what if he loses both by elections now, it’s meaningless - there won’t be a monthly vote of confidence in Boris till they finally manage to win one! How many more VONCs before the next election? The next ones probably many many months off.
Today was a mechanism, they had it in their hands, they might not even get a second chance this side of the General Election.
Betfair rules on the BoJo to announce resignation market.
Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void
If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?
Maybe from Chequers?
If he made a formal announcement from Chequers, then that would technically be outside Downing Street wouldn't it?
Anywhere not inside Downing Street is outside Downing Street, it doesn't say right outside or in front of 10 Downing Street.
Honestly, nothing Dorries says by itself will make any difference to Hunt's chances. She's clearly a fruitloop and clearly regarded as such far and wide. When an angry partisan makes wild accusations in the heat of battle, the only people convinced by it are the already convinced. If she can back them up, it's more interesting. But she can't. She can't do anything. She's nothing more than a poodle's fart.
Me, I'm disappointed even though this couldn't be better for Labour. I was hoping they'd take this chance to get rid.
Where now I don't know. He'll never resign so what's the mechanism to do it? I'll probably top up my BJ to stay to the GE position if the price drifts much above 3.
No mechanism.
I've gone in and put more on Starmer as next PM at 6.3. Expect this to shorten.
Yes could be time to look at that again. My fav market.
Pretty bad result this for Johnson though. Over 40% against without coordination or a clear successor.
Once again, we're in that space where Decent Chap Rules should apply. The British Constitution is full of them.
OK, a win is a win. But a Decent Chap recognises that they can't carry on at some threshold quite a bit lower than that. Or better, that they can (for a bit), but they shouldn't. And it doesn't get spelt out, because a Decent Chap doesn't need to be told.
One of the secrets of Boris Johnson's success is that he doesn't behave as a Decent Chap.
No, and I guess it's very clarifying for him. No need to agonize over a complex balancing of personal interest v party or public interest. Just do whatever it takes each day to still be PM at the end of it.
Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
Broadly I think there's a divide between those happy being Continuity UKIP and those who want to return to a perceived party of cautious conservatism. An example is the Northern Ireland Protocol and whether to break the treaty with the EU. Johnson won't be able to satisfy both factions on that.
I do wonder how many Conservatives give a toss about the Protocol.
Betfair rules on the BoJo to announce resignation market.
Will Boris Johnson announce his intention to resign as Prime Minister by the end of June 2022? This market refers to the resignation announcement only. For the purposes of this market Boris Johnson must make a public statement either in the House of Commons or inside/outside 10 Downing Street formally announcing his intention to resign as PM for Yes to be a winner. The settlement time will be taken from whichever of these occurrences happen first. If this exact occurrence does not take place before 00:00 UK Time on July 1st 2022 then No will be settled as a winner. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons this market will be void
If I was BoJo and I decided, in the next few weeks, I wanted to resign then I would pay careful attention to those rules and on the 30th of June announce my resignation somewhere other than those locations - maybe from Tory Party HQ?
Maybe from Chequers?
If he made a formal announcement from Chequers, then that would technically be outside Downing Street wouldn't it?
Anywhere not inside Downing Street is outside Downing Street, it doesn't say right outside or in front of 10 Downing Street.
Then why mention it at all? Seems curious.
Probably because they mean what Alistair took it to mean, I was just being pedantic.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it. It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
I am sure Starmer would jump at the chance of a GE tomorrow if he could. But calling for a VoNC he knows he cannot win would be a tactical error. And he doesn't seem to make many of those.
Better to wait and call for a vote on any Privileges Committee sanction against Johnson.
No it wouldn't matter if he won the VONC. There would not be a GE. All that would happen is that Johnson would be forced out and the 80 seat majority that the Tories have would unite behind a new leader. That, more than anything, is why he won't call a VONC. It doesn't bring a GE one day closer to happening, it just means that when the GE does come he is facing someone who is not fatally damaged in the way Johnson is.
Politic dictates Starmer do whatever he can to make sure Johnson is PM at the next GE. Meanwhile the country continues to suffer under an incompetent lawbreaker.
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
Nah, the MPs were frit. It was time to hold the vote.
If they weren't going to be convinced by now, what was going to convince them? For anyone still loyal Tiverton would be dismissed as a midterm by-election, which is precisely what it is. They had all the the information we have and they made their choice anyway.
As put earlier
@DavidGauke An MP who votes for Johnson today but says "if they'd waited until after Tiverton, I might have voted against him" is also an MP who would've said after the Tiverton defeat "if they'd waited until the Privileges Committee Report, I might have voted against him". And so on
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
No he wasn't right. Why would more have voted differently in the weeks to come? Because of by-elections that they've already practically written off? A Standards report not due until the Autumn?
Pressure had been building for weeks. They'd already fallen short back in February, had they done so again they'd have been a laughing stock.
The loss of two by-elections, actual rather than predicted, would have given cover for those wavering Tory mps to take the plunge rather than stay with nurse for fear of worse. So I think he was right, though whether it would have been enough to push the numbers to a no confidence majority is moot.
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
No he wasn't right. Why would more have voted differently in the weeks to come? Because of by-elections that they've already practically written off? A Standards report not due until the Autumn?
Pressure had been building for weeks. They'd already fallen short back in February, had they done so again they'd have been a laughing stock.
The loss of two by-elections, actual rather than predicted, would have given cover for those wavering Tory mps to take the plunge rather than stay with nurse for fear of worse. So I think he was right, though whether it would have been enough to push the numbers to a no confidence majority is moot.
I just do not buy for one second that waverers would be persuaded by the two by elections. If they have half a brain they can see Wakefield is already lost, and Tiverton is at best under threat, the actuality of it is changing the dynamic by a single uncertain seat. And you cannot tell much from by-elections in any case, so they shouldn't be basing their view on that anyway, it would be a pretext.
It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
Yes, he seems to have pulled off that unlikely feat - unassailable to untenable in less than a year.
The rot started with the Owen Paterson thing last year, arguably.
Good opportunity for Sunak. He resigns tomorrow saying that Boris’ comments re he would do it all over agin to the 1922 coupled with the clarity that Boris has left the party divided, possibly fatally so, means that he cannot continue to serve in govt.
He can only see infighting and distraction to govt whilst Boris still PM and at a time when the country needs a proper long term financial plan to get through the CoL crisis etc this is impossible and certainly is not the platform for what he thinks needs to be done.
He steps to back-benches for a few months assuming Boris eventually goes and hey presto he’s distanced himself from Boris, made a stand, can spin it how he likes, spends time listening to back benchers etc to create a programme for the country then steps forward when Boris is eventually defenestrated.
I know it’s highly unlikely but would, I feel, be quite a sly move as Sunak has nothing to lose - if he doesn’t become PM he can F off at next election and have a great life.
Tim Montgomerie: "He's finished. It's only a matter of time."
I agree with Tim
How do you see it playing out then, for someone who won’t put party first and resign?
As it gets closer to next election the chance of another vonc decreases? But without beating him in a vonc, how does he go?
With 148 against and likely dreadful by election results, resignations even defections, it will not be long before reality bites and he goes possible by a voting rebellion on his side
“ possible by a voting rebellion on his side‘. A what?
If his cheerleading cabinet was going to resign on any principle, they would have done already. Losing the two by elections is now meaningless if it doesn’t add to pressure on the imminent VONC. there is no imminent VONC now.
Have to accept this is a defeat for the Conservative Party in general this evening. Boris out in 2022 bets likely dead too. And a win for the opposition parties. That’s my take.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
Iain Dale pointing out that, in contrast to May and Major, senior cabinet members are keeping their heads down, not taking to the airwaves to shore him up
It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
Yes, he seems to have pulled off that unlikely feat - unassailable to untenable in less than a year.
The rot started with the Owen Paterson thing last year, arguably.
It turboed charged discontent it seemed. It was both undefensible with the public, and made the MPs look like fools for forcing them to damage their own integrity (or rebel) and then reverse on it anyway.
I think that is a big part of it - people can put up with a lot for the sake of the party, and the leader, but make them defend shit, then drop them in it anyway? They do not like it.
I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.
Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it. It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
I am sure Starmer would jump at the chance of a GE tomorrow if he could. But calling for a VoNC he knows he cannot win would be a tactical error. And he doesn't seem to make many of those.
Better to wait and call for a vote on any Privileges Committee sanction against Johnson.
No it wouldn't matter if he won the VONC. There would not be a GE. All that would happen is that Johnson would be forced out and the 80 seat majority that the Tories have would unite behind a new leader. That, more than anything, is why he won't call a VONC. It doesn't bring a GE one day closer to happening, it just means that when the GE does come he is facing someone who is not fatally damaged in the way Johnson is.
Politic dictates Starmer do whatever he can to make sure Johnson is PM at the next GE. Meanwhile the country continues to suffer under an incompetent lawbreaker.
I don't think you're being fair on Starmer. Although it may be in his interests for Boris to remain, nevertheless Starmer has spent the last six months, including tonight, calling for him to resign, at every opportunity. Proposing and losing a VONC, which is what would happen, wouldn't aid that, it would just embarrass some Tory MPs.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
They will stay and can’t be thrown out as they’ve broken no rules.
What's more. He could expel everyone who publicly said they voted against. But he wouldn't have much of a majority.
Exactly.
The only people who might resign the whip are those planning to jump to another party.
The problem is, even though Jesse Norman eloquently articulates many of Boris’s policy failures, MPs are annoyed by Boris’s character much more than his platform (which is hard to describe, really).
That’s not a good enough reason to jump unto itself.
Boris will now lose both by-elections. I fully expect him to be censured by the Privileges Committee, too.
He will brush both of these off because he’s absolutely shameless.
I can’t see a mechanism for his ouster now. Although tonight’s vote doesn’t “draw the line”, Tory MPs will have no new information about his unfitness for office in 3, 6, 9 months that would occasion a re-vote.
I am also struggling to see the polls shift much. SKS can’t punch through the 40% ceiling.
I now expect him to limp on, unable to get much of his agenda (what agenda?) through, until the British public put an end to his misery in 24.
Its the Privileges Committee that seems the only thing that I can see for him to be forced out, which nobody else is talking about.
If the Committee chooses to censure him and recommends suspending him (which I think only needs 1 or 2 Tory MPs on the Committee to recommend along with the opposition MPs), then if the MPs who voted to oust him today join with the Opposition MPs in voting for that, then he'd be out wouldn't he?
It doesn't take 180 Tory MPs if they find a way to vote with the Opposition. That's the only way I can see the issue being forced.
I can see Boris “shaking off” a suspension. Indeed, I’d imagine he’d spin it as the final reckoning for Partygate beyond which “we can all draw a line”.
And I severely doubt any suspension would be long enough to trigger a recall.
Honestly, nothing Dorries says by itself will make any difference to Hunt's chances. She's clearly a fruitloop and clearly regarded as such far and wide. When an angry partisan makes wild accusations in the heat of battle, the only people convinced by it are the already convinced. If she can back them up, it's more interesting. But she can't. She can't do anything. She's nothing more than a poodle's fart.
Expect that poodle fart to come up at PMQ's at some point.
Fraser Nelson was right. The Tory rebels went too soon. It was a premature culmination.
No he wasn't right. Why would more have voted differently in the weeks to come? Because of by-elections that they've already practically written off? A Standards report not due until the Autumn?
Pressure had been building for weeks. They'd already fallen short back in February, had they done so again they'd have been a laughing stock.
The loss of two by-elections, actual rather than predicted, would have given cover for those wavering Tory mps to take the plunge rather than stay with nurse for fear of worse. So I think he was right, though whether it would have been enough to push the numbers to a no confidence majority is moot.
I just do not buy for one second that waverers would be persuaded by the two by elections. If they have half a brain they can see Wakefield is already lost, and Tiverton is at best under threat, the actuality of it is changing the dynamic by a single uncertain seat. And you cannot tell much from by-elections in any case, so they shouldn't be basing their view on that anyway, it would be a pretext.
That may be your view. It's angels on pinheads anyway as it's all hypothetical. However I'm happy that Johnson survives again. He's still got five lives left by my counting.
Iain Dale pointing out that, in contrast to May and Major, senior cabinet members are keeping their heads down, not taking to the airwaves to shore him up
Sounds like straw clutching. He won and there's no rallying ideological issue for the rebels, but the Cabinet drones are keeping quiet!
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
Tory Party is pathetic. They have lost their hunger to win.
No, they are desperate to win. They have lost their hunger to rule. Boris was supposed to have unified the party with his ruthless ejection of the main remainers before the 2019 election. It hasn't worked. As some American bloke once said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand."
I don't think the Conservatives have many disagreements about policy.
But what there seems to be a split on are views about personal integrity and leadership.
Broadly I think there's a divide between those happy being Continuity UKIP and those who want to return to a perceived party of cautious conservatism. An example is the Northern Ireland Protocol and whether to break the treaty with the EU. Johnson won't be able to satisfy both factions on that.
I do wonder how many Conservatives give a toss about the Protocol.
Let's put it another way. As you understand it, what DO the Conservatives give a toss about, beyond a firmly held belief that only they should be in power?
Even on that they seem divided. Those that voted for Johnson appear to have done so in the belief that he represents their best chance of staying in power. They certainly didn't vote for him out of shared values. And those voting against were happy with him until he started looking like a vote loser.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
The first would be petty, the latter vindictive. On what grounds is it reasonable to withdraw the whip from someone simply for participating in the official procedures of the Conservative Party to challenge the leader?
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent. For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer 9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
Russia has itself spoken of nearly 200 000 Ukranian children moved to Russia. They aren't even hiding it. If this is accurate then not great for adults either in the Donbas republics.
The LPR blogger who told the story of the Russian 35th army a few days ago, shared today some more interesting details about the mobilisation process in Donbas, going over the terrible preparation of the Russian airforce along the way…
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent. For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer 9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
1. I thought Zahawi's comment about Zelensky celebrating tonight was pretty distasteful.
2. David Lammy on Sky was impressive. He's the most improved MP of the last five years, I reckon.
Yes, that is a tasteless and cynical comment from Zahawi. I daresay Johnson concurs.
Would Britain not remain the same ally without Boris? North Korea style fawning is what Boris has done to the Conservative Party 😠. Populism gone mad. The Death of Honour, Reason and good old fashioned Conservatism today 6th June. And you bet the Daily Mail and their readers going to love it.
I’m going to call my Dad now for his thoughts. I can guess my DM reading mums! 🤦♀️
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
The first would be petty, the latter vindictive. On what grounds is it reasonable to withdraw the whip from someone simply for participating in the official procedures of the Conservative Party to challenge the leader?
He would soon find himself heading a minority Govt. if he tried that.
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent. For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer 9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
Thanks, Ed. Nobody is going to do that.
I suggest you focus on accurate assessment - that the Tories have voted to maintain a dishonest and incompetent regime - rather than wishful thinking.
You can then follow with a message to Tivertonians especially that the responsibility now falls on them to “send a message”.
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent. For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer 9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
The first would be petty, the latter vindictive. On what grounds is it reasonable to withdraw the whip from someone simply for participating in the official procedures of the Conservative Party to challenge the leader?
He would soon find himself heading a minority Govt. if he tried that.
It does show that Boris and co, for even contemplating it, do indeed think resisting the leader is treachery. That is no joke or casual hyperbole from online supporters.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
It will be amusing to watch Johnson press on, and try and move on from this - claiming that it draws a line under partygate and resolves questions about his leadership. The thing is that it might just work, as he has a unique ability to pull off very unlikely feats. It isn't that long ago that he was doing well in the polls and looked unassailable.
Yes, he seems to have pulled off that unlikely feat - unassailable to untenable in less than a year.
The rot started with the Owen Paterson thing last year, arguably.
Yes I'd say so. Not with the public but with MPs and pundits. Then partygate cut through on the retail side.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
Interesting if nonsense Dorries-type policies get as far as a vote though. Or votes that are contentious for the right, or the left. Doesn't take 148 votes against from that melange. Just 40. And/or a few abstentions.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I expect some barnacles to be scraped, though. For example, I think Ch.4 privatisation is dead.
What a bunch of spineless Tory MPs. I'm a traditional Tory voted but enough was enough. He needed to go. Local by-election coming up where I am. I would have voted Tory if Boris had gone. Don't think I will now.
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
In very recent history, the Labour party had a leader who didn't have the support of his MPs. What happened? Labour went down to their worst defeat for decades at the general election.
My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.
I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
It'll be interesting to see who takes the reshuffle shilling. You'd have to assume they believe they are out at the next election (or are never otherwise going to hold office.)
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I have said the same tonight but there will be votes and there will be whipping. If the dissatisfied vote with the government there is a limit to what Boris can do. If they don't he can act.
In very recent history, the Labour party had a leader who didn't have the support of his MPs. What happened? Labour went down to their worst defeat for decades at the general election.
My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.
Only in 2019, in 2017 Corbyn got a hung parliament
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent. For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer 9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
Not inviting them to defect, I notice.
Wise. Jo Swinson accepted a lot of defectors with no real sense or place in the party. Better to have them as independents.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I expect some barnacles to be scraped, though. For example, I think Ch.4 privatisation is dead.
In very recent history, the Labour party had a leader who didn't have the support of his MPs. What happened? Labour went down to their worst defeat for decades at the general election.
My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.
Only in 2019, in 2017 Corbyn got a hung parliament
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
Comments
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
In order to get a majority to get through the Commons May needed all of those backing her, and all of those who opposed her too, plus some from other parties, which she was patently unable to do.
With 211 "loyalists" Boris on any issue needs to get just over 2/3rds of those who voted against him not to be rebel, in order to win a Commons vote.
Better to wait and call for a vote on any Privileges Committee sanction against Johnson.
Pressure had been building for weeks. They'd already fallen short back in February, had they done so again they'd have been a laughing stock.
He can only see infighting and distraction to govt whilst Boris still PM and at a time when the country needs a proper long term financial plan to get through the CoL crisis etc this is impossible and certainly is not the platform for what he thinks needs to be done.
He steps to back-benches for a few months assuming Boris eventually goes and hey presto he’s distanced himself from Boris, made a stand, can spin it how he likes, spends time listening to back benchers etc to create a programme for the country then steps forward when Boris is eventually defenestrated.
I know it’s highly unlikely but would, I feel, be quite a sly move as Sunak has nothing to lose - if he doesn’t become PM he can F off at next election and have a great life.
If the Committee chooses to censure him and recommends suspending him (which I think only needs 1 or 2 Tory MPs on the Committee to recommend along with the opposition MPs), then if the MPs who voted to oust him today join with the Opposition MPs in voting for that, then he'd be out wouldn't he?
It doesn't take 180 Tory MPs if they find a way to vote with the Opposition. That's the only way I can see the issue being forced.
Personally I also think Hunt was torpedoed today by Nadine Dorries, and Liz Truss never actually had any support beyond her own Instagram site.
Had he been running against a heavyweight alternative, as opposed to no one at all, he’d very probably have lost.
2. David Lammy on Sky was impressive. He's the most improved MP of the last five years, I reckon.
Anywhere not inside Downing Street is outside Downing Street, it doesn't say right outside or in front of 10 Downing Street.
Indeed, I’d imagine he’d spin it as the final reckoning for Partygate beyond which “we can all draw a line”.
I think Johnson will go very soon... but he doesn't have an immediate vote of Tory MPs to deal with.
If a majority of Tory MPs publicly oppose BJ, then there will be immense pressure for something to happen (i.e., changing the rules if necessary). An arbitrary rule saying no vote for another year is not going to stand up to clear evidence that a majority want him gone. So, all the "rebels" need to be persuaded to state publicly that they voted no confidence, and another 10% of MPs need to be switch sides. That's plausible.
What will cause MPs to do that? Disastrous by-election results: not just losses, but bad losses. Disastrous polling: it can take a fortnight for events to feed through fulling to the polls, so let's see what the polls say at the end of the month. Voters don't like divided parties. Voters don't like parties that aren't addressing the issues that matter to them. When there's blue on blue fire, voters agree with the criticisms from both sides.
The Privileges Committee is to come and has the potential to be the most aggressive investigation yet. Gray and the Police pulled their punches. At worst, the Privileges Committee could recommend suspending Johnson from Parliament and the Commons could vote for it.
Ultimately, there's already enough rebel Tory MPs to defeat Johnson in a VONC in Parliament.
Will any of that happen? Who knows? I would guess it will be a slow, painful journey. I think Boris is safe for several months. But ultimately you don't stay in power if your only defense is waiting for a(n arbitrary) 12 month clock to tick down.
It’s the motivation that’s lacking.
If they weren't going to be convinced by now, what was going to convince them? For anyone still loyal Tiverton would be dismissed as a midterm by-election, which is precisely what it is. They had all the the information we have and they made their choice anyway.
So what if he loses both by elections now, it’s meaningless - there won’t be a monthly vote of confidence in Boris till they finally manage to win one! How many more VONCs before the next election? The next ones probably many many months off.
Today was a mechanism, they had it in their hands, they might not even get a second chance this side of the General Election.
🤷♀️
If she can back them up, it's more interesting. But she can't. She can't do anything. She's nothing more than a poodle's fart.
Before premature calls for peace, remember: for half of Europe, peace after WWII didn't mean the end of atrocities but more repressions.
This is being repeated in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine – children deported en masse to Russia, women raped, men imprisoned
https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1533867905120706561?cxt=HHwWgoC9kfSusskqAAAA
Party members resemble ‘Star Wars’ devotees in their commitment to the cause
STEPHEN BUSH" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/0134c4ae-9582-42fe-809c-eced441dfb65
Unheard of I know on PB.
Politic dictates Starmer do whatever he can to make sure Johnson is PM at the next GE. Meanwhile the country continues to suffer under an incompetent lawbreaker.
But he wouldn't have much of a majority.
@DavidGauke
An MP who votes for Johnson today but says "if they'd waited until after Tiverton, I might have voted against him" is also an MP who would've said after the Tiverton defeat "if they'd waited until the Privileges Committee Report, I might have voted against him". And so on
https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/the-backstory-andrew-neil-episode-6-david-davis/
(The other episodes of this new podcast, mostly on Ukraine, are pretty good too,)
If his cheerleading cabinet was going to resign on any principle, they would have done already. Losing the two by elections is now meaningless if it doesn’t add to pressure on the imminent VONC. there is no imminent VONC now.
Have to accept this is a defeat for the Conservative Party in general this evening. Boris out in 2022 bets likely dead too. And a win for the opposition parties. That’s my take.
I think that is a big part of it - people can put up with a lot for the sake of the party, and the leader, but make them defend shit, then drop them in it anyway? They do not like it.
"That is wonderful, Boris. Now back to the weapons?"
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921
The only people who might resign the whip are those planning to jump to another party.
The problem is, even though Jesse Norman eloquently articulates many of Boris’s policy failures, MPs are annoyed by Boris’s character much more than his platform (which is hard to describe, really).
That’s not a good enough reason to jump unto itself.
Also - we need a written constitution . Pronto
Even on that they seem divided. Those that voted for Johnson appear to have done so in the belief that he represents their best chance of staying in power. They certainly didn't vote for him out of shared values. And those voting against were happy with him until he started looking like a vote loser.
@EdwardJDavey
Every Conservative MP who cares about integrity and decency must do the right thing, resign the whip and sit as an independent.
For the sake of our country, this failing Prime Minister cannot be propped up any longer
9:35 PM · Jun 6, 2022"
The LPR blogger who told the story of the Russian 35th army a few days ago, shared today some more interesting details about the mobilisation process in Donbas, going over the terrible preparation of the Russian airforce along the way…
Full text: https://t.co/EIOCY8LG0V https://t.co/shQcwYsxyo
Let the squirting begin.
P S. The difference between you and Johnson is I like you. Good night.
I’m going to call my Dad now for his thoughts. I can guess my DM reading mums! 🤦♀️
Nobody is going to do that.
I suggest you focus on accurate assessment - that the Tories have voted to maintain a dishonest and incompetent regime - rather than wishful thinking.
You can then follow with a message to Tivertonians especially that the responsibility now falls on them to “send a message”.
3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.
I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.