Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I expect some barnacles to be scraped, though. For example, I think Ch.4 privatisation is dead.
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I expect some barnacles to be scraped, though. For example, I think Ch.4 privatisation is dead.
The barnacles ARE the Tory MPs, the sessile invertebrates with enormous penes.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
I expect some barnacles to be scraped, though. For example, I think Ch.4 privatisation is dead.
The Bullingdon Barnacle remains unscraped.
I will now be adopting that as a euphemism for haemorrhoids.
Well, I can't pretend that I'm not disappointed. It will be interesting to see how the voters in the by-elections respond.
I am. It wasn't really on - and this is a bad result for Johnson - but I'd worked myself up to half expect the big shock. Thought they might do it. Ah well. The Cork stays in. Mug of cocoa.
In very recent history, the Labour party had a leader who didn't have the support of his MPs. What happened? Labour went down to their worst defeat for decades at the general election.
My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.
Only in 2019, in 2017 Corbyn got a hung parliament
Fair.
I think in 2017 Corbyn was a new thing. In 2019, he wasn't. Johnson isn't. People (arguably naive people) put their hope in Corbyn in 2017. Who would invest their hope in Johnson today?
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.
Johnson would both have more support and more opposition. More opposition doesn't mean less support though.
Put it another way: Boris won more support today than Keir Starmer has MPs. That is why Boris is Prime Minister and not Keir Starmer or another Tory.
I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧 @montie · 1h After a very similar result in 1990 the Cabinet finished Mrs Thatcher off. Who is today’s Ken Clarke etc?
===
No one because Johnson did not allow any serious big beast into his Cabinet.
This will go down as a seminal time in government - cue Peter Hennessy - no longer is it necessary to put heavy weights in Cabinet or balance the party interests and so on.
This is the Court of Johnson and not a Cabinet.
Will Starmer redress things when he is PM? Or carry on this baleful approach?
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
Let's just say we'd like to avoid any Imperial entanglements!
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.
I congratulate you on your consistency of viewpoint. In turn, can you see why some other people would take the opposite view that Bob had more support from his own party than either May or Johnson and thus was in a more secure position ?
I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.
Nadine seems to be ignorant of the fact we changed PMs during BOTH World Wars, in which millions of UK and Empire troops were actually engaged.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
And as Big Dog said today: He would do it all again...
I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.
Perhaps.
Though it would just be a general sign of the times in No. 10 if one the tiny handful of genuinely vocal supporters of Boris was one of the ones taking the can.
Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.
That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
Let's just say we'd like to avoid any Imperial entanglements!
Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:
Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
He also got more votes against than she did.
Except she had more opposition MPs than she had, they weren't exactly supporting her now were they? To discount the opposition MPs because they aren't Tories is HYUFDian perverted logic.
In order to get bills through the Commons you need 50% + 1 one of the votes in the Commons. 200 backers and 117 rebels is less support than 211 backers and 148 rebels.
Support is about how many people you can get to vote for you, not those about those who voted against, and 211 is more than 200.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧 @montie · 1h After a very similar result in 1990 the Cabinet finished Mrs Thatcher off. Who is today’s Ken Clarke etc?
===
No one because Johnson did not allow any serious big beast into his Cabinet.
This will go down as a seminal time in government - cue Peter Hennessy - no longer is it necessary to put heavy weights in Cabinet or balance the party interests and so on.
This is the Court of Johnson and not a Cabinet.
Will Starmer redress things when he is PM? Or carry on this baleful approach?
Starmer's Shadow Cabinet appointments suggest that he wants Labour's biggest hitters from all parts of the party, apart from the far left, surrounding him.
My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆
And, from The Telegraph of all people,
OK, it would have been fun for him to go tonight. But it would also have been shocking. And Conservative leaders getting these sorts of numbers don't survive long.
I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.
Nadine seems to be ignorant of the fact we changed PMs during BOTH World Wars, in which millions of UK and Empire troops were actually engaged.
Your first five words would have sufficed - but yes.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Heseltine was the leader of the internal opposition to Thatcher, but he didn't succeed her.
Sometimes it's best not to be seen wielding the knife.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆
And, from The Telegraph of all people,
OK, it would have been fun for him to go tonight. But it would also have been shocking. And Conservative leaders getting these sorts of numbers don't survive long.
Death will find a way.
Telegraph is increasingly walking well away from Johnson.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Utter nonsense. He's done and dusted. Time to seek a lucrative career in the private sector.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Utter nonsense. He's done and dusted. Time to seek a lucrative career in the private sector.
I think Boris might try to promote Penny Mordaunt, as a 'keep your enemies closer' thing, so that he can hang a load of crap round her neck to take the shine off her and neutralise the threat. If he does that, she should refuse, declare her wish to stay where she is, and dare him to sack her if he wants to.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Cleverly on Newsnight: need to "focus on what's going on", "focus on delivering for the British people". Delivering what? What is the Conservative Party's strategy for what's going on? To oppose a windfall tax, before then introducing a windfall tax? To talk about cutting taxes while raising taxes? To oppose the Northern Ireland Protocol that they introduced, but never actually to go through with doing anything about?
I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?
May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.
Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?
Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.
I congratulate you on your consistency of viewpoint. In turn, can you see why some other people would take the opposite view that Bob had more support from his own party than either May or Johnson and thus was in a more secure position ?
He doesn't though. He has a smaller party, which might have more "purity" but its still less support in the Commons.
If the Greens have 1 MP who 100% support themselves to lead themselves then does that mean the Greens have more support than Bob, or Boris or May?
If an independent seeking election starts a party with only themselves as a member and they support themselves 100% do they have the same or more or less support?
Purity is not the same as support. You can have purity and negligible support behind you, or you can have diversity and more support with more opposition.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Oh, we'll get it back. We were tantalisingly close tonight.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
Including (as we now know) forcible evictions for Covid sufferers. He's a complete muppet.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Oh, we'll get it back. We were tantalisingly close tonight.
Very close, but alas not close enough and I fear it was a kill or be killed moment.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left to elect the centrist candidate in a leadership election again
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
Remember however even Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017, being led by a hard right or hard left leader does not necessarily mean defeat if the government is crap enough. Many thought Thatcher was unelectable too until 1979 and Thatcher was well right of Boris on most issues
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
Boris chooses no-one, I think.
He will wash his hands of it when he goes. He was never in the job to govern, and has no interest in what happens when he is gone.
He will probably want to stir up a bit of trouble for his rivals though.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
So, do you still think the Tories will hold on in Tiverton, which is what I recall you thought from your local knowledge some days ago?
I said don't bet until the VONC had clarified things.
It has clarified things for me - to the point of me not wanting to go an hour's drive to help door-knock to keep Boris's arse in Downing Street a moment longer. I'm not sure I would be much of an asset to them.
I can see a lot of disappointed Tories sitting on their hands now. I would no longer consider putting money on the Tories to hold the seat. They might, but only because it is a very Tory/Brexit seat and people might abstain rather than go LibDem.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I had a think about that. I think one who would want or benefit from promo by Bojo would be Wallace. For everyone else, being Boris's chosen successor is a distinctly mixed blessing.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left to elect the centrist candidate in a leadership election again
Which is why I wonder if the old school Conservatives are kaput. Boris fight on and loses and the party swings to the right in opposition with Steve Barclay.
Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
Remember however even Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017, being led by a hard right or hard left leader does not necessarily mean defeat if the government is crap enough. Many thought Thatcher was unelectable too until 1979 and Thatcher was well right of Boris on most issues
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
I wouldn't put it past this bunch of geniuses to remove the whip from 40-odd backbenchers and accidentally deprive themselves of a majority.
All Johnson needs is a populist policy that he can provoke some of his opponents into voting against, and then he can remove the whip from them, and have the voters elect more pliable replacements in a snap general election. It worked for him before in 2019. Not sure what the policy would be, but I don't think Johnson is as scared of losing his majority as a conventional PM would be.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I had a think about that. I think one who would want or benefit from promo by Bojo would be Wallace. For everyone else, being Boris's chosen successor is a distinctly mixed blessing.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
Which is the other part of why there isn't a successor-in-waiting being groomed. (Rishi was for a while, sure, but only on the basis of him taking over in a couple of General Elections time, i.e. never.) The main bit is that a lack of rivals strengthens the King's position, with the effect we've seen today.
But also, anyone else is Not-Boris-Johnson, which means they are part of an indeterminate blur. So they are all equally irrelevant. Truss? Wallace? May? whatevs.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.
The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.
She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
One thing I dislike on Sky's report is Beth Rigby saying Boris "didn't want to face the public" so met the Estonian Prime Minister inside Downing Street instead of at the door.
The public haven't been allowed down Downing Street for may years have they? The public wouldn't be there. Perhaps given what was happening today he didn't want to meet her with Sam Coates twattishly shouting out something at him?
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.
The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
We will see, it he certainly nailed his colours to the mast. Big dog owes him one. Become CofE and then be well positioned in next year’s leadership election?
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.
She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
Link on that please. If Mordaunt has made that promise, she is going nowhere.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.
She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
Hunt is over. He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
So was Javid. Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war. Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
I don’t agree with your third premise. Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.
The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
We will see, it he certainly nailed his colours to the mast. Big dog owes him one. Become CofE and then be well positioned in next year’s leadership election?
Comments
Though they may realise in time that it's a bit ambiguous.
I think in 2017 Corbyn was a new thing. In 2019, he wasn't. Johnson isn't. People (arguably naive people) put their hope in Corbyn in 2017. Who would invest their hope in Johnson today?
And when Sunak is shunted to the back bench he can reflect at leisure on how he did not seize the tide.
Quite charming.
https://twitter.com/Jake_Kanter/status/1532715805384884225
Johnson would both have more support and more opposition. More opposition doesn't mean less support though.
Put it another way: Boris won more support today than Keir Starmer has MPs. That is why Boris is Prime Minister and not Keir Starmer or another Tory.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
@montie
·
1h
After a very similar result in 1990 the Cabinet finished Mrs Thatcher off. Who is today’s Ken Clarke etc?
===
No one because Johnson did not allow any serious big beast into his Cabinet.
This will go down as a seminal time in government - cue Peter Hennessy - no longer is it necessary to put heavy weights in Cabinet or balance the party interests and so on.
This is the Court of Johnson and not a Cabinet.
Will Starmer redress things when he is PM? Or carry on this baleful approach?
My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆
I think I spotted the flaw there.
Though it would just be a general sign of the times in No. 10 if one the tiny handful of genuinely vocal supporters of Boris was one of the ones taking the can.
I forgot Raab. He too should probably be dispatched.
The general strategy should be to remove those people most offensive to Waitrose Women, while shoring up support from his internal Brexit flank.
In order to get bills through the Commons you need 50% + 1 one of the votes in the Commons. 200 backers and 117 rebels is less support than 211 backers and 148 rebels.
Support is about how many people you can get to vote for you, not those about those who voted against, and 211 is more than 200.
We now have an heir apparent.
Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.
That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.
Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.
That party is dead.
OK, it would have been fun for him to go tonight. But it would also have been shocking. And Conservative leaders getting these sorts of numbers don't survive long.
Death will find a way.
It's Corbynesque.
Jo Tanner adviser to Mayor of London.
He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.
How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
Sometimes it's best not to be seen wielding the knife.
Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.
No one else stepped forward.
Truss and co have blown it.
a bus stop in Westminster;
(H/T Greg Hands MP)
Maybe the "24 hours" is how long it will take the headless Big Dog to stop running around and notice how dead he is.
A boy can hope.
Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.
Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.
I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
If the Greens have 1 MP who 100% support themselves to lead themselves then does that mean the Greens have more support than Bob, or Boris or May?
If an independent seeking election starts a party with only themselves as a member and they support themselves 100% do they have the same or more or less support?
Purity is not the same as support. You can have purity and negligible support behind you, or you can have diversity and more support with more opposition.
Security is a different question.
Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.
Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
It isnt all about that. It's about delivery. And falling real wages
He will wash his hands of it when he goes. He was never in the job to govern, and has no interest in what happens when he is gone.
He will probably want to stir up a bit of trouble for his rivals though.
It has clarified things for me - to the point of me not wanting to go an hour's drive to help door-knock to keep Boris's arse in Downing Street a moment longer. I'm not sure I would be much of an asset to them.
I can see a lot of disappointed Tories sitting on their hands now. I would no longer consider putting money on the Tories to hold the seat. They might, but only because it is a very Tory/Brexit seat and people might abstain rather than go LibDem.
Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.
Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
🤮
.
Indeed.
Goodnight all.
But also, anyone else is Not-Boris-Johnson, which means they are part of an indeterminate blur. So they are all equally irrelevant. Truss? Wallace? May? whatevs.
The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
The public haven't been allowed down Downing Street for may years have they? The public wouldn't be there. Perhaps given what was happening today he didn't want to meet her with Sam Coates twattishly shouting out something at him?
If Mordaunt has made that promise, she is going nowhere.
Strong and Stable under Boris, or coalition of chaos under Starmer
Tired and stale.