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Johnson holds on with 58.7% of the vote – politicalbetting.com

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    Watching the news, it looks like the key Tory slogan at the next election, replacing Get Brexit Done, will be: Time To Move On!

    Though they may realise in time that it's a bit ambiguous.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059
    HYUFD said:

    In very recent history, the Labour party had a leader who didn't have the support of his MPs. What happened? Labour went down to their worst defeat for decades at the general election.

    My presumption would be that the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party... unless they do something about it. But maybe we should learn to stop underestimating Tory MPs' inability to act.

    Only in 2019, in 2017 Corbyn got a hung parliament
    Fair.

    I think in 2017 Corbyn was a new thing. In 2019, he wasn't. Johnson isn't. People (arguably naive people) put their hope in Corbyn in 2017. Who would invest their hope in Johnson today?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:

    Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921

    Ain’t gonna happen.

    3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.

    I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
    Definitely a reshuffle coming.

    And when Sunak is shunted to the back bench he can reflect at leisure on how he did not seize the tide.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    The best night Labour have had in years.

    Weren’t Tories (and I think I may have said it myself) saying that of the Batley and Spen result as it meant SKS would remain?


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    On a lighter note, I missed this at the weekend.
    Quite charming.
    https://twitter.com/Jake_Kanter/status/1532715805384884225
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Farooq said:

    :lol:

    Surely to help the younger ones it needs the caption "Have a word with him".
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited June 2022
    pm215 said:

    I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?

    May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.

    Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?

    Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
    Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.

    Johnson would both have more support and more opposition. More opposition doesn't mean less support though.

    Put it another way: Boris won more support today than Keir Starmer has MPs. That is why Boris is Prime Minister and not Keir Starmer or another Tory.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.

    That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
    I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
    The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
    Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2022

    Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:

    Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921

    Ain’t gonna happen.

    3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.

    I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
    Definitely a reshuffle coming.

    And when Sunak is shunted to the back bench he can reflect at leisure on how he did not seize the tide.

    If Boris is cunning (and persuasive enough), he will dump Patel, Sunak and Rees-Mogg and bring in/back Mordaunt, Badenoch, and Lord Frost.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.

    That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
    I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
    But what ARE those "key government policies"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
    @montie
    ·
    1h
    After a very similar result in 1990 the Cabinet finished Mrs Thatcher off. Who is today’s Ken Clarke etc?

    ===

    No one because Johnson did not allow any serious big beast into his Cabinet.

    This will go down as a seminal time in government - cue Peter Hennessy - no longer is it necessary to put heavy weights in Cabinet or balance the party interests and so on.

    This is the Court of Johnson and not a Cabinet.

    Will Starmer redress things when he is PM? Or carry on this baleful approach?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Come to think of it, banning Rwandans from working from home is another big policy idea. As is weighing Channel 4 in pounds and ounces.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.

    That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
    I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
    The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
    Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
    Let's just say we'd like to avoid any Imperial entanglements!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    image

    My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:

    Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921

    By the end of the week we are going to end up with a cabinet that is even more sycophantic and clueless. Hard to believe that that is possible I know.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:

    Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921

    Ain’t gonna happen.

    3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.

    I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
    Definitely a reshuffle coming.

    And when Sunak is shunted to the back bench he can reflect at leisure on how he did not seize the tide.

    If Boris is cunning (and persuasive enough), he will dump Patel, Sunak and Rees-Mogg and bring in/back Mordaunt, Badenoch, and Lord Frost.
    I would think twice before consigning Patel, at least, to the back benches. She'd surely take the gloves off.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134

    pm215 said:

    I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?

    May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.

    Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?

    Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
    Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.
    I congratulate you on your consistency of viewpoint. In turn, can you see why some other people would take the opposite view that Bob had more support from his own party than either May or Johnson and thus was in a more secure position ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.

    Nadine seems to be ignorant of the fact we changed PMs during BOTH World Wars, in which millions of UK and Empire troops were actually engaged.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Hague says it's "unsustainable". Should look for an "honourable" way out.
    I think I spotted the flaw there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.

    That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
    I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
    The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
    And as Big Dog said today: He would do it all again...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.

    Perhaps.

    Though it would just be a general sign of the times in No. 10 if one the tiny handful of genuinely vocal supporters of Boris was one of the ones taking the can.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    dixiedean said:

    Hague says it's "unsustainable". Should look for an "honourable" way out.
    I think I spotted the flaw there.

    Does he mean an unfortunate gardening accident?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Hard to see how MPs like John Baron and Jesse Norman can keep the Tory whip given what they've publicly written.

    That depends on whether they, and the other 139 MPs accept the result and continue to support the government in the Commons. If they start voting against 3 line whips they will be out. One of the many problems with this sort of vote, like referendums, is that it really doesn't resolve anything. Everyone continues to argue for whatever they argued for before. The idea that votes actually decide things seems to have gone completely out of fashion.
    I don't see the rebels voting down key government policies. It's not like the May Brexit era. They're a mixed bunch and in any case there are no key government policies.
    The only key government policies we've seen lately were (a) defending Owen Paterson and (b) opposing the Privileges Committee investigation. In both cases, the government backed down in the face of rebellions... and that was *before* today's VONC!
    Wasn’t there something about bringing back imperial measurements (even though we already use imperial measurements for lots of things)? That one was a big hitter!
    Let's just say we'd like to avoid any Imperial entanglements!
    Move along! Move along!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    mwadams said:

    Some allies of the PM pushing for hard and fast retribution:

    Sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of "die-hard" rebels who've been pushing for his removal.


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533914102304849921

    Ain’t gonna happen.

    3/4 of the backbench just voted against him and a policy of punishment beatings would turn that to 4/4.

    I would not be surprised to see him sack Sunak, though, and perhaps others. I expect a reshuffle after he loses the by-elections.
    Definitely a reshuffle coming.

    And when Sunak is shunted to the back bench he can reflect at leisure on how he did not seize the tide.

    If Boris is cunning (and persuasive enough), he will dump Patel, Sunak and Rees-Mogg and bring in/back Mordaunt, Badenoch, and Lord Frost.
    I would think twice before consigning Patel, at least, to the back benches. She'd surely take the gloves off.
    Maybe, but she’s got no support either in the PCP or in public, that I can see.

    I forgot Raab. He too should probably be dispatched.

    The general strategy should be to remove those people most offensive to Waitrose Women, while shoring up support from his internal Brexit flank.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    pm215 said:

    I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?

    May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.

    Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?

    Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
    He also got more votes against than she did.
    Except she had more opposition MPs than she had, they weren't exactly supporting her now were they? To discount the opposition MPs because they aren't Tories is HYUFDian perverted logic.

    In order to get bills through the Commons you need 50% + 1 one of the votes in the Commons. 200 backers and 117 rebels is less support than 211 backers and 148 rebels.

    Support is about how many people you can get to vote for you, not those about those who voted against, and 211 is more than 200.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377


    Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
    @montie
    ·
    1h
    After a very similar result in 1990 the Cabinet finished Mrs Thatcher off. Who is today’s Ken Clarke etc?

    ===

    No one because Johnson did not allow any serious big beast into his Cabinet.

    This will go down as a seminal time in government - cue Peter Hennessy - no longer is it necessary to put heavy weights in Cabinet or balance the party interests and so on.

    This is the Court of Johnson and not a Cabinet.

    Will Starmer redress things when he is PM? Or carry on this baleful approach?

    Starmer's Shadow Cabinet appointments suggest that he wants Labour's biggest hitters from all parts of the party, apart from the far left, surrounding him.
  • The Tory Party used to be a respected and respectable institution.

    That party is dead.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    image

    My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆

    And, from The Telegraph of all people,



    OK, it would have been fun for him to go tonight. But it would also have been shocking. And Conservative leaders getting these sorts of numbers don't survive long.

    Death will find a way.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited June 2022
    The closest thing we've ever had to Jed Bartlett says the loon on World Tonight.
    It's Corbynesque.
    Jo Tanner adviser to Mayor of London.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited June 2022

    I actually suspect Boris will ditch Mad Nad. Following her unspeakably poor public spat with Hunt today, and her general shiteness, the discontents will want her head on a plate, and I think he will oblige.

    Nadine seems to be ignorant of the fact we changed PMs during BOTH World Wars, in which millions of UK and Empire troops were actually engaged.
    Your first five words would have sufficed - but yes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    What about removing the passports of middle class Channel 4 users? That was a radical and bold legislative proposal.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Heseltine was the leader of the internal opposition to Thatcher, but he didn't succeed her.

    Sometimes it's best not to be seen wielding the knife.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited June 2022

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    So, do you still think the Tories will hold on in Tiverton, which is what I recall you thought from your local knowledge some days ago?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Surely if you’re part of the current cabinet and want to be a future leader you’d need to resign and avoid the stench coming out of no 10.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    What about removing the passports of middle class Channel 4 users? That was a radical and bold legislative proposal.

    You're getting confused. Middle class Channel 4 users will still need their passports to get to Rwanda.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    image

    My dads down the con club, so I only spoke to my mum having a celebratory drink “only needed to win by 1 not this massive win” so I’m back already 😆

    And, from The Telegraph of all people,



    OK, it would have been fun for him to go tonight. But it would also have been shocking. And Conservative leaders getting these sorts of numbers don't survive long.

    Death will find a way.
    Telegraph is increasingly walking well away from Johnson.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Utter nonsense. He's done and dusted. Time to seek a lucrative career in the private sector.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    nico679 said:

    Surely if you’re part of the current cabinet and want to be a future leader you’d need to resign and avoid the stench coming out of no 10.

    I think that is spot-on.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    This is apparently legit-
    a bus stop in Westminster;



    (H/T Greg Hands MP)

    Maybe the "24 hours" is how long it will take the headless Big Dog to stop running around and notice how dead he is.

    A boy can hope.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Utter nonsense. He's done and dusted. Time to seek a lucrative career in the private sector.
    Again. We will have to agree to disagree.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    ...


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    ...


    We are the hollow men.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    I think Boris might try to promote Penny Mordaunt, as a 'keep your enemies closer' thing, so that he can hang a load of crap round her neck to take the shine off her and neutralise the threat. If he does that, she should refuse, declare her wish to stay where she is, and dare him to sack her if he wants to.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2022

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    I wouldn't put it past this bunch of geniuses to remove the whip from 40-odd backbenchers and accidentally deprive themselves of a majority.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    What about removing the passports of middle class Channel 4 users? That was a radical and bold legislative proposal.

    You're getting confused. Middle class Channel 4 users will still need their passports to get to Rwanda.
    Thanks for clearing that up.
  • pm215 said:

    pm215 said:

    I'm curious why some people keep repeating the claim that Theresa May had more support in 2018 than Boris has today?

    May won the backing of 200 MPs, Boris the backing of 211. 211 is more than 200.

    Yes as a percentage its lower, but I don't see why the fact that May won fewer MPs at her election than Boris did at his should be somehow twisted into being a positive for her?

    Consider a hypothetical case. Suppose the Tory party had a mere 200 MPs and Bob Jones was the leader. A leadership vote is held, and Bob wins it in a landslide of 190 votes to 10. Would you really feel that May and Johnson had "more support" from their party than Bob Jones because 200 and 211 are more than 190?
    Clearly yes. It would mean Bob would need ~130 rebel or opposition or other party MPs in order to carry a majority of the Commons, which is more than Boris or May need or needed.
    I congratulate you on your consistency of viewpoint. In turn, can you see why some other people would take the opposite view that Bob had more support from his own party than either May or Johnson and thus was in a more secure position ?
    He doesn't though. He has a smaller party, which might have more "purity" but its still less support in the Commons.

    If the Greens have 1 MP who 100% support themselves to lead themselves then does that mean the Greens have more support than Bob, or Boris or May?

    If an independent seeking election starts a party with only themselves as a member and they support themselves 100% do they have the same or more or less support?

    Purity is not the same as support. You can have purity and negligible support behind you, or you can have diversity and more support with more opposition.

    Security is a different question.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    Emmanuel Hague saying BJ needs an honourable exit apparently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Oh, we'll get it back. We were tantalisingly close tonight.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Patel and Javid are the potential rivals IMO.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    Including (as we now know) forcible evictions for Covid sufferers. He's a complete muppet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Oh, we'll get it back. We were tantalisingly close tonight.
    Very close, but alas not close enough and I fear it was a kill or be killed moment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    The media can't leave parties alone.
    It isnt all about that. It's about delivery. And falling real wages
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left to elect the centrist candidate in a leadership election again
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
    If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
    If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
    Remember however even Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017, being led by a hard right or hard left leader does not necessarily mean defeat if the government is crap enough. Many thought Thatcher was unelectable too until 1979 and Thatcher was well right of Boris on most issues
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    Boris chooses no-one, I think.

    He will wash his hands of it when he goes. He was never in the job to govern, and has no interest in what happens when he is gone.

    He will probably want to stir up a bit of trouble for his rivals though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I had a think about that. I think one who would want or benefit from promo by Bojo would be Wallace. For everyone else, being Boris's chosen successor is a distinctly mixed blessing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left to elect the centrist candidate in a leadership election again
    Which is why I wonder if the old school Conservatives are kaput. Boris fight on and loses and the party swings to the right in opposition with Steve Barclay.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left for Labour to elect a centrist candidate in a leadership election again
    If they do, with your definition of "right" then they'll remain in opposition, and fully deserve to do so. 👍
    Remember however even Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017, being led by a hard right or hard left leader does not necessarily mean defeat if the government is crap enough. Many thought Thatcher was unelectable too until 1979 and Thatcher was well right of Boris on most issues
    Did Corbyn become PM in 2017? No he didn't!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    Will they still introduce the NI protocol legislation this week?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    .
    🤮
    .
    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Why vote Tory should be the question says Sir John Hayes.
    Indeed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    mwadams said:

    I wouldn't put it past this bunch of geniuses to remove the whip from 40-odd backbenchers and accidentally deprive themselves of a majority.

    All Johnson needs is a populist policy that he can provoke some of his opponents into voting against, and then he can remove the whip from them, and have the voters elect more pliable replacements in a snap general election. It worked for him before in 2019. Not sure what the policy would be, but I don't think Johnson is as scared of losing his majority as a conventional PM would be.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I had a think about that. I think one who would want or benefit from promo by Bojo would be Wallace. For everyone else, being Boris's chosen successor is a distinctly mixed blessing.
    Perhaps this is the game zadhawi is playing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The Daily Mail should just rename themselves the Daily Boris and be done with it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
    Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    I don't know why I bother with politics sometimes. They're all - the whole bloody lot - a bunch of total muppets.

    Goodnight all.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
    Which is the other part of why there isn't a successor-in-waiting being groomed. (Rishi was for a while, sure, but only on the basis of him taking over in a couple of General Elections time, i.e. never.) The main bit is that a lack of rivals strengthens the King's position, with the effect we've seen today.

    But also, anyone else is Not-Boris-Johnson, which means they are part of an indeterminate blur. So they are all equally irrelevant. Truss? Wallace? May? whatevs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
    Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
    Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.

    The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    FF43 said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
    Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.

    She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
  • One thing I dislike on Sky's report is Beth Rigby saying Boris "didn't want to face the public" so met the Estonian Prime Minister inside Downing Street instead of at the door.

    The public haven't been allowed down Downing Street for may years have they? The public wouldn't be there. Perhaps given what was happening today he didn't want to meet her with Sam Coates twattishly shouting out something at him?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    edited June 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
    Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
    Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.

    The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
    We will see, it he certainly nailed his colours to the mast. Big dog owes him one. Become CofE and then be well positioned in next year’s leadership election?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    FF43 said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
    Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.

    She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
    Link on that please.
    If Mordaunt has made that promise, she is going nowhere.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    .
    🤮
    .
    image

    “And we’d do it all again”

    Strong and Stable under Boris, or coalition of chaos under Starmer
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    FF43 said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
    Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.

    She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
    Penny looks OK :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Blimey. Even by Mail's recent standards that is a toady sycophantic front page.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    They are not Major figures. Major was CofE.
    So was Javid.
    Wallace is Defence Sec during a major war.
    Barclay is de facto Deputy PM.

    Anyway, what I mean is someone inoffensive to most MPs.
    To be Major you have to be inoffensive, in a top job and critically have the support of the incumbent. We need to figure out who Boris would choose if he had to finally go.
    I don’t agree with your third premise.
    Thatcher retained a massive number of loyalist MPs, who wished to protect Thatcherism.

    Boris really only has the payroll vote, once he is gone he’ll have nobody. There’s no such thing as “Borisism” and no such thing as “Borisists”, with the sole exception of Nadine Dorries.
    Zadhawi positioned himself pretty well today.
    Au contraire, he made himself look like a spinning tit.

    The selectorate is the PCP. Johnson’s imprimatur is not actually helpful, I think.
    We will see, it he certainly nailed his colours to the mast. Big dog owes him one. Become CofE and then be well positioned in next year’s leadership election?
    Yes, I suppose that’s possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Interesting Mail is recycling the Lab-SNP coalition of chaos line on front page.

    Tired and stale.




  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633

    Blimey. Even by Mail's recent standards that is a toady sycophantic front page.

    Wasn't "coalition of chaos" (as opposed to "strong and stable") a Theresa May soundbite?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    Farooq said:

    Well what a thoroughly depressing evening.

    I do wonder if Starmer could take a chance and call a VONC in the hope there are 40 Tory MPs who are brave enough to support it and bring down Johnson. But I don't think Starmer wants that of course. He would much prefer Johnson in power at the next GE. But I am not sure the country can afford another 2 years of the moral vacuum at the heart of Government.

    Agreed. But get ideas of a successful VONC in the government out of your head. It's far too big an ask. I'd be surprised if you could find five Conservatives who would actually do it.
    It would probably be a massive tactical mistake to attempt it.
    Oh I agree. I am pretty sure that Starmer wouldn't do it anyway even if he had the signed commitment written in blood from 50 Tory MPs. Unless I read him wrong he is far more interested in making sure he has the best chance of wining in 2 years than in doing what is right for he country. He is, after all, a politician.
    I am sure Starmer would jump at the chance of a GE tomorrow if he could. But calling for a VoNC he knows he cannot win would be a tactical error. And he doesn't seem to make many of those.

    Better to wait and call for a vote on any Privileges Committee sanction against Johnson.

    No it wouldn't matter if he won the VONC. There would not be a GE. All that would happen is that Johnson would be forced out and the 80 seat majority that the Tories have would unite behind a new leader. That, more than anything, is why he won't call a VONC. It doesn't bring a GE one day closer to happening, it just means that when the GE does come he is facing someone who is not fatally damaged in the way Johnson is.

    Politic dictates Starmer do whatever he can to make sure Johnson is PM at the next GE. Meanwhile the country continues to suffer under an incompetent lawbreaker.
    I think Starmer would table a VONC if (say) a hardcore of Conservative rebels (say... half... 70?) guaranteed that they'd support Labour AND allow the result of that VONC to be a General Election.

    But how both sides would be able to come to an agreement is beyond me.
    Starmer wants a GE (ideally facing Johnson), but the Conservative rebels merely want Johnson gone (and no GE).
    A Parliamentary VONC is now the only viable route for the next year to achieving ONE of the above, but the outcome is potentially mutually exclusive.

    Starmer can't trust them to call a VONC. The rebels would, after winning it, renege on any GE deal and form an alternative viable government.
    If they somehow didn't renege, then the Conservatives would face a July GE(!) at the same time they either have a leadership contest going at the same time(!) or with Johnson still at the helm.

    Goodness, this is difficult.
    The one year rule really makes things difficult for rebels if they're strong, but not quite strong enough. It never imagined a leader who wouldn't just take the whiskey and revolver if the vote was bad but not bad enough (I mean, all other leaders have had a personal minimum....).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Blimey. Even by Mail's recent standards that is a toady sycophantic front page.

    Indeed. It crosses the line into Pravda territory.

    Even the Express, next to it, manages to temper it with the use of speech marks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    FF43 said:

    Tonight has clarified one thing.

    We now have an heir apparent.

    Hunt has nailed his mast. He has no way back now. He is now the leader of the internal opposition and no one else has a chance of being that figure now. Everyday he must be out promoting the alternative regime.

    That doesn't mean he would necessarily win a leadership contest when it finally happens, but there are now two lodestars in the party and they are Hunt and Johnson.

    Truss, Sunak and Raab are incredibly reduced figures tonight imho.

    Hunt is over.
    He’s merely replaced Tugendhat as the heir assumptive for people who don’t have a clue about the Conservative Party.
    We will have to agree to disagree.

    Hunt will now run a constant, 'on the other hand, what i would do as PM is...' operation from now on.

    No one else stepped forward.

    Truss and co have blown it.
    I wobbled a bit about Hunt’s chances a few days ago, but my conclusion is that he is not widely liked or trusted inside the PCP, and Nadine’s claims today have damaged him.

    Truss, Patel, Raab I think never had any support inside the PCP.

    Sunak can’t recover. The FPN is not the problem; his non-dom status is. Besides which he has pissed off the fiscal dries who would ordinarily make up his chief support group.

    I think we are looking at a Major figure, ie Wallace, Javid or Barclay. Or Mordaunt. My money is now on the latter.
    Mordaunt is interesting. She has had a series of ministerial jobs over the years apparently without achieving anything of note in any of them. Maybe it doesn't matter. She is however ambitious, gets on with people and is a conscientious constituency MP.
    Penny has agreed to make her campaign manager Angela Leadsome Chancellor if PM, so clear which corner of the party she will rule from.

    She also didn’t publicly back Boris today - so gone up in shareprice my point of view - but now has Enemy number 1 crosshairs aimed at her from number ten.
    Link on that please.
    If Mordaunt has made that promise, she is going nowhere.
    I have not seen that, but despite dislike of her (over Brexit) in many quarters, Leadsom was always a capable Minister well on top of her brief. It was an odd decision for Boris to sack her, and I imagine it was probably because he didn't like her having too many principles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Three-quarters of backbenchers think the PM a liar and want him removed.

    He is kept in place by those who he has given jobs - including the Cabinet.

    How shabby does that look, Government Ministers?

    Must be odd to be a Conservative tonight. Arguably weirder than being an old school Labour supporter through the Corbyn years. I do wonder if you will get your party back, or it’s forever changed much as the GOP.
    Difference is I would expect the Conservatives to go further right in opposition if they lose the next general election. It took Labour 13 years after Blair left to elect the centrist candidate in a leadership election again
    Which is why I wonder if the old school Conservatives are kaput. Boris fight on and loses and the party swings to the right in opposition with Steve Barclay.
    Then further right still under Priti or Rees Mogg
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Any major Cabinet member who wants to be PM needs to resign tomorrow.

    They get to cite the "I'd do it again" quote, it is perfect cover.

    It even gives Sunak a do-over.
This discussion has been closed.