Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
One of the reasons why the MPs won’t make him one of the two for the membership. He’s almost certain to lose Esher and Walton but there’s little prospect of his doing the chicken run. And to be fair, I don’t think he would try that in any event.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
Would you feel the same way if the CP lost both incoming by-elections?
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
Sorry Gin you are on the wrong side of this argument. It is too easy (and completely wrong) for you to dismiss this as simply Remainers on PB or elsewhere wanting revenge for their loss. In case you missed it there are a large number of dedicated Leave campaigners who also want shot of Johnson. He is a liability to the party, to Brexit, to Parliament, to good Governance and, most importantly, to the country.
Anyone who can't see that by now really isn't living in the real world.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
A ridiculous thread from Peston earlier, in which he says that Jeremy Hunt is one of this generation's "men in grey suits" rather than an obvious leadership rival.
@Peston In the days or yore, Tory PM's did the decent thing and retired to their offices with the bottle of whisky and the revolver, after the so-called "men in grey suits" discreetly told them that the game was up. Now, no Tory MP thinks Boris Johnson would ever resign were today's generation of Tory grandee to give him a gentle nudge. Nothing in his history suggests he gives a fig what the great and the good think of him. Which is why this generation's men in grey suits - such as Jeremy Hunt, Jesse Norman, Andrew Mitchell, John Penrose - have taken to Twitter and the airwaves to condemn his fitness to remain as PM in the most clinical and damning terms. Or to put it another way, Boris Johnson's survival or oblivion is simply a brutal numbers game
Peston and most of the political commentators are far inferior to the insight we get on here.
Maybe if Peston had to bet half his salary on the stuff he pontificates about, he'd get better insights.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Those figures simply reflect the weakness of Labour under Starmer. A leader who isn't leading. A man without a vision. A better leader would be enjoying double digit leads in every poll.
But perhaps Durham Police will do everyone a favour and get rid of him.
There are MPs on the Labour benches who will be able to put together a more compelling reason to vote Red than Starmer will ever be able to conceive.
Not that the SKS acolytes will ever admit this. As you said, the fact that Labour is not streets ahead / able to get past 40% much - and that, when it comes to real life elections, their performance has been poor given the circumstances - shows how little faith the electorate has in SKS
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
One of the reasons why the MPs won’t make him one of the two for the membership. He’s almost certain to lose Esher and Walton but there’s little prospect of his doing the chicken run. And to be fair, I don’t think he would try that in any event.
Delighted to see you here and commenting on this momentous day.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Raab is available at 24 for next PM on Betfair.
I know, and its a betting site. There is a very real scenario that Boris is gone *as Prime Minister* this week. Time to run the scenarios, and Deputy PM Raab is the obvious person the palace would call.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
One of the reasons why the MPs won’t make him one of the two for the membership. He’s almost certain to lose Esher and Walton but there’s little prospect of his doing the chicken run. And to be fair, I don’t think he would try that in any event.
Delighted to see you here and commenting on this momentous day.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
Quite. In a 'hit by bus' scenario, if there was not someone obvious, then I could see an official deputy PM getting the nod perhaps, but if they are not seen fit for the role, for whatever reason, anyone could be picked.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
It's up to the cabinet I think.
@oxfordsimon is right - the role is honorific. But constitutionally there is NO pecking order here. The PM is the person who commands the confidence of the house. If the PM abruptly goes they will need to call *someone*. And honorific or not its a good indicator that he is likely to at least be considered as an early option.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Those figures simply reflect the weakness of Labour under Starmer. A leader who isn't leading. A man without a vision. A better leader would be enjoying double digit leads in every poll.
But perhaps Durham Police will do everyone a favour and get rid of him.
There are MPs on the Labour benches who will be able to put together a more compelling reason to vote Red than Starmer will ever be able to conceive.
Starmer doesn't need to inspire people to vote in droves for Labour, he just needs Labour to do well enough in red-blue marginals, and for tactical voting to work properly.
Accepting that this R&W is an outlier for the Labour-Tory lead compared with most other pollsters (recall some have Labour at 40% and Cons at 30-31%), if we do the maths:
Labour 38% + 4% of the current 7% Green vote share (which would still give the Greens their highest GE vote ever) =42% + swapping about 1-2% with the Lib Dems in variously yellow or red target seats
vs
Conservatives 34% + 3% of the 4% REFUK = 37% - the tactical voting effect - the likely loss of at least a couple of DUP seats at the next election - tactical unwind of the unionist vote in Scotland
All Starmer needs to be the next PM is for the Tories not to be able to form a majority government, so the bar isn't that high. He doesn't need to be Blair.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Raab is available at 24 for next PM on Betfair.
I know, and its a betting site. There is a very real scenario that Boris is gone *as Prime Minister* this week. Time to run the scenarios, and Deputy PM Raab is the obvious person the palace would call.
Indeed. I was adding some information for context for anyone who might be tempted.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
As I understand it, the precedent is that the Queen would only ask someone who is NOT running to be caretaker. Otherwise, there is the possibility that the impression is given that this candidate has some kind of nod from the sovereign. I can't remember the details now, but this nearly happened, I think when churchill was ill and not expected to carry on. lord salisbury was considered until a new leader - almost certainly eden was found. churchill recovered quickly.
For this reason, i think BF should put William Hague on the list of next PM.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
I agree with much of this. I personally think he needs to go, but many on here (especially the ex-Tories) are pining for a Blair/Cameron socially liberal consensus that the public don’t want. That world isn’t coming back - it’s a new era.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
Even a majority of Leavers say that Boris is doing a bad job. So, no, it's not just a Remain thing.
Besides, so what? There are many reasons to hate Boris. His lies, his flouting of ministerial code, breaking the law. There's no reason why you can't add "because I don't like his politics" to that list. I mean, FFS, we do live in a democracy.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
It seems the British vote is rather more partisan and less swingy than in the 1990s though. Not as much so as the USA, but certainly the reorientation of politics around issues of culture and identity has - at least to my eye when looking at the poll charts - reduced the amount of variance and presumably the amount of potential swingback. So a 4% poll deficit now may be more like say 8% in the past.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
A ridiculous thread from Peston earlier, in which he says that Jeremy Hunt is one of this generation's "men in grey suits" rather than an obvious leadership rival.
@Peston In the days or yore, Tory PM's did the decent thing and retired to their offices with the bottle of whisky and the revolver, after the so-called "men in grey suits" discreetly told them that the game was up. Now, no Tory MP thinks Boris Johnson would ever resign were today's generation of Tory grandee to give him a gentle nudge. Nothing in his history suggests he gives a fig what the great and the good think of him. Which is why this generation's men in grey suits - such as Jeremy Hunt, Jesse Norman, Andrew Mitchell, John Penrose - have taken to Twitter and the airwaves to condemn his fitness to remain as PM in the most clinical and damning terms. Or to put it another way, Boris Johnson's survival or oblivion is simply a brutal numbers game
Peston and most of the political commentators are far inferior to the insight we get on here.
Maybe if Peston had to bet half his salary on the stuff he pontificates about, he'd get better insights.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
Sorry Gin you are on the wrong side of this argument. It is too easy (and completely wrong) for you to dismiss this as simply Remainers on PB or elsewhere wanting revenge for their loss. In case you missed it there are a large number of dedicated Leave campaigners who also want shot of Johnson. He is a liability to the party, to Brexit, to Parliament, to good Governance and, most importantly, to the country.
Anyone who can't see that by now really isn't living in the real world.
There's clearly an unofficial alliance between very disparate groups who each have reason to dislike Boris's leadership. That should not be surprising, people like Boris found themselves voting with Labour often enough during Brexit, even for very different reasons.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
Quite. In a 'hit by bus' scenario, if there was not someone obvious, then I could see an official deputy PM getting the nod perhaps, but if they are not seen fit for the role, for whatever reason, anyone could be picked.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
Quite. In a 'hit by bus' scenario, if there was not someone obvious, then I could see an official deputy PM getting the nod perhaps, but if they are not seen fit for the role, for whatever reason, anyone could be picked.
Theresa might even get the call.
We have heard quite a bit over the weekend about the Queen's sense of humour.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
If he does the “right thing” and falls on his sword he probably has a better chance of protecting that sweet, sweet post-prime ministerial income stream.
The longer he hangs on, the more shit comes out, the more the “Boris” brand gets tarnished.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
He would still be PM until there's a new leader.
Yes, but he's so petty he might throw in the towel knowing that that is his future.
I supported Boris Johnson in 2019 and will vote for him to continue as PM tonight.
The full attention of the party needs to be on growing the economy, delivering on our promise to level-up and playing the leading role in Europe’s defence.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
One of the reasons why the MPs won’t make him one of the two for the membership. He’s almost certain to lose Esher and Walton but there’s little prospect of his doing the chicken run. And to be fair, I don’t think he would try that in any event.
Delighted to see you here and commenting on this momentous day.
Just don't get too excited, will you? 😉
Thanks…and typically generous…I know, I know!!
If Big Dog gets Rinka'd today, we will need to have an emergency PB Tory lunch, I may even order a Nebuchadnezzar of Dom Pérignon champagne for us to both drink.
Boris should get a band of supporters, perhaps led by Nadine, to storm Buckingham palace to demand that the Queen declare the no confidence vote unconstitutional.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
I has Theresa May as my constituency MP (and neighbour about 200 yards away - bloody protection officers all over the place). She was a pretty good constuency MP - spent a lot of time on issues with GWR about commuter trains). Also very pleasant when I ran into her in Waitrose in Twyford (shoes were always on a par with the leopardskin jobs), so despite what @BenjaminRoberts thinks I don't have a problem with her views (maybe that was something to do with collective Cabinet policies?),.
But as anything more than a temporary stand-in? Nah. Not got the temperament for it.
I supported Boris Johnson in 2019 and will vote for him to continue as PM tonight.
The full attention of the party needs to be on growing the economy, delivering on our promise to level-up and playing the leading role in Europe’s defence.
I find this particular type of reasoning to be very strange. It works equally well for someone arguing Boris should be replaced. Perhaps better, since if he stays a lot of time and attention will go on dealing with his ever present scandals and gaffes.
He could at least make a brief reference to how Boris will deliver those things, rather than that the party's 'attention' needs to be on those things. There are several ways to achieve that.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
I has Theresa May as my constituency MP (and neighbour about 200 yards away - bloody protection officers all over the place). She was a pretty good constuency MP - spent a lot of time on issues with GWR about commuter trains). Also very pleasant when I ran into her in Waitrose in Twyford (shoes were always on a par with the leopardskin jobs), so despite what @BenjaminRoberts thinks I don't have a problem with her views (maybe that was something to do with collective Cabinet policies?),.
But as anything more than a temporary stand-in? Nah. Not got the temperament for it.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
He's a populist. And he would be the first Tory leader since Heath to lose a confidence vote, and the first Tory PM since ??? to lose one. He needs to be loved, and has been thrown out on his ear by his own colleagues.
When you get the sack its massively humiliating. Crawling away to lick your wounds is usual. Here we are saying that this man with his personality will happily sit in Downing Street for 2 months and keep taking PMQs and keep running the country knowing that his own lot have binned him off.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
He would still be PM until there's a new leader.
He can resign as PM with immediate effect. Rather than resign as MP which he can treat as a sinecure until the next election.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
If he does the “right thing” and falls on his sword he probably has a better chance of protecting that sweet, sweet post-prime ministerial income stream.
The longer he hangs on, the more shit comes out, the more the “Boris” brand gets tarnished.
If he loses the vote then he loses. There'd be no reason to flounce off and leave everyone needing to find a caretaker PM.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
Quite. In a 'hit by bus' scenario, if there was not someone obvious, then I could see an official deputy PM getting the nod perhaps, but if they are not seen fit for the role, for whatever reason, anyone could be picked.
Theresa might even get the call.
As I posted a short time ago I agree. May would be the obvious call if its not going to be Raaaaaaaaab
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Those figures simply reflect the weakness of Labour under Starmer. A leader who isn't leading. A man without a vision. A better leader would be enjoying double digit leads in every poll.
But perhaps Durham Police will do everyone a favour and get rid of him.
There are MPs on the Labour benches who will be able to put together a more compelling reason to vote Red than Starmer will ever be able to conceive.
Starmer doesn't need to inspire people to vote in droves for Labour, he just needs Labour to do well enough in red-blue marginals, and for tactical voting to work properly.
Accepting that this R&W is an outlier for the Labour-Tory lead compared with most other pollsters (recall some have Labour at 40% and Cons at 30-31%), if we do the maths:
Labour 38% + 4% of the current 7% Green vote share (which would still give the Greens their highest GE vote ever) =42% + swapping about 1-2% with the Lib Dems in variously yellow or red target seats
vs
Conservatives 34% + 3% of the 4% REFUK = 37% - the tactical voting effect - the likely loss of at least a couple of DUP seats at the next election - tactical unwind of the unionist vote in Scotland
All Starmer needs to be the next PM is for the Tories not to be able to form a majority government, so the bar isn't that high. He doesn't need to be Blair.
BIB - there's a bit more to it than that. Likely the Tories would need to fall below 315 for there to be an alternative government that could pass a Queen's Speech.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
He's a populist. And he would be the first Tory leader since Heath to lose a confidence vote, and the first Tory PM since ??? to lose one. He needs to be loved, and has been thrown out on his ear by his own colleagues.
When you get the sack its massively humiliating. Crawling away to lick your wounds is usual. Here we are saying that this man with his personality will happily sit in Downing Street for 2 months and keep taking PMQs and keep running the country knowing that his own lot have binned him off.
Or, he can quit.
Given that you were posting quite seriously about him leading a fascist government a few days ago you must be wondering why he hasn't just sent the heavies round to have the plotters dealt with.
England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.
Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
Keir Starmer (37%, -1) leads Boris Johnson (31%, -2) by 6% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Not a ringing endorsement is it?
Which is why the Tories have to act. Get someone in that will win voters back who are done with Boris. Labour haven't won the next election yet and there's still time to keep them out.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
He would still be PM until there's a new leader.
The possible difference is that, in the background, BoJo would be going for a rather different reason to his predecessors. More sacked in disgrace than being let go for having tried and failed. In other walks of life, it would be "stay at home, we'll box up and deliver your stuff for you". Even someone with deep reserves of grit might struggle to be a caretaker PM in those circumstances. I'm not sure that Johnson would be able to face the humiliation. Take Thatcher's speech in the Commons a few hours after announcing her resignation. Can you see Johnson doing that?
Ah yes I wondered when the "Starmer is useless and must resign" would start again.
Let's look at the reality.
26 points behind to 11 points ahead in two years.
Resolved anti-Semitism.
Corbynites removed from the SC, NEC, Corbyn gone for good.
Most popular Labour leader since Blair.
He's utterly useless, when will Corbyn come back and lose again?
I can see and acknowledge all of that. But that is internal work that is not quite as resolved as you seem to want to believe.
He has yet to articulate a policy direction that gives anyone a clue as to what he stands for.
Yes, he can become PM because of the way a hung parliament would work. But I think offering a vision for what the future might be like would be a welcome addition to our political discourse.
This is why the current ~80% chance the markets are pricing doesn't make sense. Boris doesn't have some unknown reserve of MPs who will vote for him but not publicly support him.
Ah yes I wondered when the "Starmer is useless and must resign" would start again.
Let's look at the reality.
26 points behind to 11 points ahead in two years.
Resolved anti-Semitism.
Corbynites removed from the SC, NEC, Corbyn gone for good.
Most popular Labour leader since Blair.
He's utterly useless, when will Corbyn come back and lose again?
He's not useless. He's currently enjoying watching the goverment hit its own wicket, get stupidly run out, give dolly catches, all without really needing to do anything. Get some decent policies out there too, something to vote for, rather than just against the Tories, then he might get some proper leads. He hasn't yet - the average is nowhere near enough for a labour majority.
He also faces the chance that the Tories might actually that thing that they are renowned for - making the hard choice a ditching a proven winner, when the tide turns. We don't know the future, but its not impossible things get tougher for Starmer from tonight.
Starmer has done fine so far, but there is a long way to go.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.
Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.
Shouldn’t be an issue if everyone sits in their allocated seat. We had 20,000 Cologne fans turn up at Arsenal (many purchased Arsenal tickets), but the idiots went and stood next to the away end. The kick off was delayed by an hour, so I went home as I had to get up early for work (those were the days!).
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
The good news for you (and for the opposition) is that Johnson is going to win tonight so the fun goes on! The boos will continue everywhere he goes. He's trashed his own brand and is now doing irreparable damage to the Tory brand. I can't see a downside.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
Because he has no interest in spending time as a common backbencher?
He would still be PM until there's a new leader.
The possible difference is that, in the background, BoJo would be going for a rather different reason to his predecessors. More sacked in disgrace than being let go for having tried and failed. In other walks of life, it would be "stay at home, we'll box up and deliver your stuff for you". Even someone with deep reserves of grit might struggle to be a caretaker PM in those circumstances. I'm not sure that Johnson would be able to face the humiliation. Take Thatcher's speech in the Commons a few hours after announcing her resignation. Can you see Johnson doing that?
He will still want to get beyond Theresa May which I calculate as 60 days away. A two month long campaign takes him there and gets the new leader in before conference season.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
So. (Bravely) assuming that those tweets turn into votes...
Johnson needs another 50 shy votes for a bare win that buys him (at most) another year. Ideally he needs another 100 + votes for a 2:1 win that might be semi-convincing.
It could be that there are a lot of Boris backers that don't want to advertise the fact. After all, would you? But it's an awfully big gap to close.
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
Lets come back to your point. The scenario is (a) Boris loses and (b) Boris abruptly resigns as an MP. We need a PM regardless of the chaos happening, and whilst being an MP is not a requirement to be PM, wanting to serve as such is.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Why on earth would he abruptly resign as an MP?
He's a populist. And he would be the first Tory leader since Heath to lose a confidence vote, and the first Tory PM since ??? to lose one. He needs to be loved, and has been thrown out on his ear by his own colleagues.
When you get the sack its massively humiliating. Crawling away to lick your wounds is usual. Here we are saying that this man with his personality will happily sit in Downing Street for 2 months and keep taking PMQs and keep running the country knowing that his own lot have binned him off.
Or, he can quit.
Given that you were posting quite seriously about him leading a fascist government a few days ago you must be wondering why he hasn't just sent the heavies round to have the plotters dealt with.
Fascist tendencies. Which I listed. Having blackshirts isn't one of the tendencies exhibited at this point.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
The other odd reasoning employed is about how people and MPs want to 'move on'. That might be so, but if the problem is Boris Johnson's actions, then it is hard to move on whilst he is still PM. The problem remains.
So rather than arguing the party wants to move on, it should be that they have addressed problems. Which some, but not all, have done, but are undermined by his admittance that he feels no contrition about things.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
So. (Bravely) assuming that those tweets turn into votes...
Johnson needs another 50 shy votes for a bare win that buys him (at most) another year. Ideally he needs another 100 + votes for a 2:1 win that might be semi-convincing.
It could be that there are a lot of Boris backers that don't want to advertise the fact. After all, would you? But it's an awfully big gap to close.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.
But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
I know this. The scenario is: 1. Big Dog gets shot 2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him 3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.
I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.
Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
Deputy PM is an invented role with no constitutional basis. Raab does not have an automatic right to assume the role.
The UK's constitution is made up as we go along! Ultimately, Raab assumes the role if he has the confidence of the Commons, which means the confidence of Tory MPs. So, the question is: how much weight do Tory MPs put in Raab's title?
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
Stick to the flint knapping. Your prose isn't really up to much. Neither's mine TBF.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
Yes, I think that is possible. This was coming, he couldn't stop it so he took it at his own time. But its very high risk poker, momentum is uncertain and the risk of being, at best, severely wounded, is real. Boris is a gambler though. I think he thought sod it, let's do it now.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson. One can say what one likes about her, but she was a person of high personal integrity. Johnson is a self serving egotistical disaster zone. He isn't fit to lick her high heals. The problem with Johnson apologists is that they fundamentally misunderstand the importance of elections. They are not beauty contests, or ego trips; they are a means to elect a party and its leader to government. Even if he were 10 points ahead of Labour in the polls he would still be unsuitable.
The other odd reasoning employed is about how people and MPs want to 'move on'. That might be so, but if the problem is Boris Johnson's actions, then it is hard to move on whilst he is still PM. The problem remains.
So rather than arguing the party wants to move on, it should be that they have addressed problems. Which some, but not all, have done, but are undermined by his admittance that he feels no contrition about things.
Are there really people who are now surprised that he was sorry for getting caught rather than sorry for breaking the law?
He picked an odd time to say it, but none of his colleagues are remotely surprised that is what he feels, and I doubt many of the electorate are either.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
The other odd reasoning employed is about how people and MPs want to 'move on'. That might be so, but if the problem is Boris Johnson's actions, then it is hard to move on whilst he is still PM. The problem remains.
So rather than arguing the party wants to move on, it should be that they have addressed problems. Which some, but not all, have done, but are undermined by his admittance that he feels no contrition about things.
Are there really people who are now surprised that he was sorry for getting caught rather than sorry for breaking the law?
He picked an odd time to say it, but none of his colleagues are remotely surprised that is what he feels, and I doubt many of the electorate are either.
Many MPs are prepared to go along with bullshit explanations for things, but will feel aggrieved if it is admitted to be a bullshit explanation.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Just watching the highlights of day 3 of the test, brilliant game but the flaws in English batting plain for all to see. Nothing useful from 1-3 and some pretty ordinary dismissals. Beligerence from YJB but really not what the situation required. Stokes a total stroke of luck on the NB and some very ordinary batting. Root, just magnificent, a totally different class.
So he only needs about 1 in 5 of those who are undeclared to break his way. Very achievable.
I don’t understand why there would be any “shy Boris voters” amongst MPs.
If you are too worried about publicly declaring for Boris then clearly you accept that he’s a liability for your future electoral prospects and so would not vote for him to stay.
If you think he is the answer and is best for the country then surely you would say so.
So will be interesting to see how many undeclared actually do break for him.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
Yes, I think that is possible. This was coming, he couldn't stop it so he took it at his own time. But its very high risk poker, momentum is uncertain and the risk of being, at best, severely wounded, is real. Boris is a gambler though. I think he thought sod it, let's do it now.
So 120 or less against, he is safe for a year, or at least have a good stab at fighting back this summer and autumn?
But he can’t easily be forced out 140 or few more against today can he?
The other odd reasoning employed is about how people and MPs want to 'move on'. That might be so, but if the problem is Boris Johnson's actions, then it is hard to move on whilst he is still PM. The problem remains.
So rather than arguing the party wants to move on, it should be that they have addressed problems. Which some, but not all, have done, but are undermined by his admittance that he feels no contrition about things.
Are there really people who are now surprised that he was sorry for getting caught rather than sorry for breaking the law?
He picked an odd time to say it, but none of his colleagues are remotely surprised that is what he feels, and I doubt many of the electorate are either.
Many MPs are prepared to go along with bullshit explanations for things, but will feel aggrieved if it is admitted to be a bullshit explanation.
Maybe, certainly a popular tactic with some pb loyalists when they can cling to a fig leaf.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
The fact alone that Caroline Nokes is against BJ makes me think he should stay. She’s probably angling for any new role of Secretary of State for Trans issues
So he only needs about 1 in 5 of those who are undeclared to break his way. Very achievable.
I don’t understand why there would be any “shy Boris voters” amongst MPs.
If you are too worried about publicly declaring for Boris then clearly you accept that he’s a liability for your future electoral prospects and so would not vote for him to stay.
If you think he is the answer and is best for the country then surely you would say so.
So will be interesting to see how many undeclared actually do break for him.
Some number won't be on twitter, a rare view will be stubborn about not giving away how they intend to vote regardless of how little that would matter, some may be worried about defending him but still think the unknown chaos of his ousting is too risky.
I am upping my prediction of rebels to 60:40 to Boris though
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
Stick to the flint knapping. Your prose isn't really up to much. Neither's mine TBF.
Something pulled at me.... then I found it...
I felt myself in the presence of something enormously big, as if a small barbarian was desecrating the colossal Zeus of Pheidias with a coal hammer. But I also felt it inhuman, and I hated it and I clung to that hatred.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go. But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
I've posted this before, but its striking how the narrative of 'jam tomorrow' is entirely absent from the government's narrative.
There is no message of 'stick with us, things will get better by xyz'
Comments
Anyone who can't see that by now really isn't living in the real world.
Maybe if Peston had to bet half his salary on the stuff he pontificates about, he'd get better insights.
So, if Raab passes despite being deputy PM, and as such the palace has a problem. The Tories have imploded into a blue bloodbath. A dozen names are being talked about as potential candidates including current and former cabinet ministers. So someone senior who is definitely not running and isn't being attacked for running needs to be quickly appointed.
Someone willing to serve as PM for a few months. To stabilise the ship.
Its Theresa May isn't it?
Just don't get too excited, will you? 😉
Accepting that this R&W is an outlier for the Labour-Tory lead compared with most other pollsters (recall some have Labour at 40% and Cons at 30-31%), if we do the maths:
Labour 38%
+ 4% of the current 7% Green vote share (which would still give the Greens their highest GE vote ever)
=42%
+ swapping about 1-2% with the Lib Dems in variously yellow or red target seats
vs
Conservatives 34%
+ 3% of the 4% REFUK
= 37%
- the tactical voting effect
- the likely loss of at least a couple of DUP seats at the next election
- tactical unwind of the unionist vote in Scotland
All Starmer needs to be the next PM is for the Tories not to be able to form a majority government, so the bar isn't that high. He doesn't need to be Blair.
Otherwise, there is the possibility that the impression is given that this candidate has some kind of nod from the sovereign. I can't remember the details now, but this nearly happened, I think when churchill was ill and not expected to carry on. lord salisbury was considered until a new leader - almost certainly eden was found. churchill recovered quickly.
For this reason, i think BF should put William Hague on the list of next PM.
Besides, so what? There are many reasons to hate Boris. His lies, his flouting of ministerial code, breaking the law. There's no reason why you can't add "because I don't like his politics" to that list. I mean, FFS, we do live in a democracy.
The longer he hangs on, the more shit comes out, the more the “Boris” brand gets tarnished.
The full attention of the party needs to be on growing the economy, delivering on our promise to level-up and playing the leading role in Europe’s defence.
That’s how we win the next election.
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1533852337671897091
Let's look at the reality.
26 points behind to 11 points ahead in two years.
Resolved anti-Semitism.
Corbynites removed from the SC, NEC, Corbyn gone for good.
Most popular Labour leader since Blair.
He's utterly useless, when will Corbyn come back and lose again?
But as anything more than a temporary stand-in? Nah. Not got the temperament for it.
He could at least make a brief reference to how Boris will deliver those things, rather than that the party's 'attention' needs to be on those things. There are several ways to achieve that.
When you get the sack its massively humiliating. Crawling away to lick your wounds is usual. Here we are saying that this man with his personality will happily sit in Downing Street for 2 months and keep taking PMQs and keep running the country knowing that his own lot have binned him off.
Or, he can quit.
132:
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533854382592229376
England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.
Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nations-league-fears-of-crowd-trouble-as-england-fans-buy-tickets-in-germany-section-zmm8p0jqk
He has yet to articulate a policy direction that gives anyone a clue as to what he stands for.
Yes, he can become PM because of the way a hung parliament would work. But I think offering a vision for what the future might be like would be a welcome addition to our political discourse.
He also faces the chance that the Tories might actually that thing that they are renowned for - making the hard choice a ditching a proven winner, when the tide turns. We don't know the future, but its not impossible things get tougher for Starmer from tonight.
Starmer has done fine so far, but there is a long way to go.
I did one, including constituency info. Will start adding declarations shortly, feel free to contribute!
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1533756796434784256?cxt=HHwWgICx9cPr_8gqAAAA
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
Johnson needs another 50 shy votes for a bare win that buys him (at most) another year.
Ideally he needs another 100 + votes for a 2:1 win that might be semi-convincing.
It could be that there are a lot of Boris backers that don't want to advertise the fact. After all, would you? But it's an awfully big gap to close.
So rather than arguing the party wants to move on, it should be that they have addressed problems. Which some, but not all, have done, but are undermined by his admittance that he feels no contrition about things.
Standards Committee......
The absolute disconnect of this.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
He picked an odd time to say it, but none of his colleagues are remotely surprised that is what he feels, and I doubt many of the electorate are either.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
If you are too worried about publicly declaring for Boris then clearly you accept that he’s a liability for your future electoral prospects and so would not vote for him to stay.
If you think he is the answer and is best for the country then surely you would say so.
So will be interesting to see how many undeclared actually do break for him.
But he can’t easily be forced out 140 or few more against today can he?
I am upping my prediction of rebels to 60:40 to Boris though
I felt myself in the presence of something enormously big, as if a small barbarian was desecrating the colossal Zeus of Pheidias with a coal hammer. But I also felt it inhuman, and I hated it and I clung to that hatred.
But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
There is no message of 'stick with us, things will get better by xyz'