Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
Having listened closely to people in Moray who re-elected me and people across Scotland, tonight I will support the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister
Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out. https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424
Tory MPs. If you vote to keep him then every misfortune that befalls the party is on you. And those misfortunes will be plentiful. Im done with you if you bottle it
Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.
Baker called for Boris to resign back in April. Hardly a surprise he still thinks the same.
Indeed, but the point is that I don't see where Boris is going to get his support from. If the Brexit spartans are out then where does the 180 come from? It's a secret ballot, Team Pig Dog have no power over anyone in this.
Baker is hardline on Brexit, but not typical of the Brexit spartans at all. He never was, always more polite, reasonable and considered, the kind of values that the PM does not value or represent.
I don't have a strong view either way on the market but the format suits the incumbent.
The 15% to trigger a vote means you need 36% to believe we should replace the PM but not be willing to write a confidential letter to make it happen. 36% for that is a big group to find.
Can we expect anything else between now and 6pm? Revelations of a further love-child? A Zinoviev Letter featuring Putin? Disclosure of a torrid affair with Sue Grey? A tell-all confession that the PM loves pineapple on pizza and hates Radiohead?
Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
I think the vote against Boris will be in the range 100-149 which Betfair have at 184-1.86. But if the waverers feel Boris is safe the numbers against him could be less and so I've had a speculative £10 at 11.0 on the 50-99 band of VONC against Boris.
Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out. https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424
Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out. https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424
That reminds me about as strongly as anything's possible to remind me of the "banging on the tables" for Theresa May in the 1922. As mentioned in another thread here recently, the Conservative Party is possibly the best in the West at performative, ritualistic and theatrical displays of loyalty.
Senior party source after meeting: "Is there any one here who hasn't got pissed? Is there anyone here who doesn't like a glass of wine to decompress?" Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune" https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475
Well, this is all very exciting boys and girls, isn't it?
Beats the shit out of Netflix.
It really is. I'm pulsing. Have also topped up on him losing at the drifted price. C'mon Tory MPs. Self interest coincides with moral compass here. That doesn't happen too often. Not to be spurned.
Senior party source after meeting: "Is there any one here who hasn't got pissed? Is there anyone here who doesn't like a glass of wine to decompress?" Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune" https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475
When you start channelling Nixon, alarm bells start ringing.
Did you think by any chance that ex-Cons voters want him to leave and, with him not there, become Cons voters once more.
He has toxified the party and hence shed a lot of sensible Cons votes. The party needs those people to return and BoJo might easily have been a factor in them leaving.
So when looking at Cons' prospects in a GE, polling "Cons voters" is meaningless.
Well, this is all very exciting boys and girls, isn't it?
Beats the shit out of Netflix.
Hey Casino
IIRC, was it you who I said to some months ago that I wouldn’t be unduly bothered by the Queen’s demise, that I would see it as interesting in historical terms but that I would emotionally not really bothered? I think it was you.
Well, after this weekend I think I was wrong to say that. I’m not quite a flag-waving monarchist but I will be sad when she goes. I’d like to see the hereditary monarchy abolished, but I think she has done as good a job as anyone could do in the role.
She has been a great servant for the country, a stable figurehead, floating serenely and unsullied above the filthy gutter that is British politics. I will be sad to see her go.
God, maybe I am a monarchist after all?!
Sorry for that interlude everyone, let’s get back to the feverish speculation.
Senior party source after meeting: "Is there any one here who hasn't got pissed? Is there anyone here who doesn't like a glass of wine to decompress?" Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune" https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475
They dont get it. They really don't get it. Let me spell it out for them from a personal position. I lost my mum to cancer in the first year, i lost time with her knowing she was dying because of your rules. She spent her last months frightened by your rhetoric. And you 'decompressed' Fuck you. Fuck you right off.
Tory MPs. If you vote to keep him then every misfortune that befalls the party is on you. And those misfortunes will be plentiful. Im done with you if you bottle it
The idea of a narrow win being spun as some sort of mandate will just be laughed at.
Who is there could sit down with Boris and tell him a narrow win is no win? Is there a senior figure he genuinely respects, that could tell him he has to resign?
It'll be interesting to see the level of psychological trauma Boris's departure will inflict upon the Tories. Boris has been around for decades, putting the world to rights in articles and making the British conservatives feel good about themselves and their opinions. 'Boris for PM!' was the refrain. If Boris is kicked out in disgrace, something deep within the Tories will die with him: where for years they thought they'd seen success and confidence it will transpire there was only failure.
The only thing that will die with him is the certainty of the Tories losing the next election.
Tory MPs. If you vote to keep him then every misfortune that befalls the party is on you. And those misfortunes will be plentiful. Im done with you if you bottle it
The idea of a narrow win being spun as some sort of mandate will just be laughed at.
Who is there could sit down with Boris and tell him a narrow win is no win? Is there a senior figure he genuinely respects, that could tell him he has to resign?
There is a precedent for a 52% to 48% vote being decisive.
Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."
Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.
Thats epic. As I have posted a few times, his "je ne regret rien" nonsense started the avalanche of no confidence letters when he addressed the '22 last time. So if he's done it again he really is a spanner
Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.
Projection: LAB 56% CON 33% IND 3% REFUK 3% LIB DEM 2% GREENS 2% YORKSHIRE PARTY 1% BRITAIN FIRST 1%
Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."
For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
This is soooooooooo tedious. Look, as a remainer who probably wanted to rejoin I fully accept it ain't gonna happen. Brexit has been and GONE. We have to live with it now for good or ill, mostly the latter.
There are a hundred things which matter and as many reasons why Johnson is a liability. Brexit isn't one of them.
And you are not listening 🙂 Mind you, I don’t think anyone else on here actually is either. I’m simply deluded apparently not merely tedious.
I’m only trying to help. Let me try again.
I’m not talking Brexit as in we now rejoin, nor that the daggers were ready for today six years ago because of Boris role in it. I’m not even talking about needing dramatic or very noticeable changes to what is already a hard Brexit position.
But Brexit isn’t a historical thing, it’s now a way of governmental life, it’s there in how all governments post brexit will govern. But it’s also true to govern well requires flexibility at problem solving and a big tent approach for support when you need it. Like elections.
I’m explaining that politicians can see this need for flexibility in order to deliver - and see Boris and his government are too tied to a Brexit agreement to be flexible across a range policy as one of the reasons they struggle. For example, immigration policy and how it ties in with a need to be closer and friendlier towards business, important for the right polyeconomic policy. And and they still need to address one HUGE promise from 2019, how Brexit plays in the voting public - it was going on long before partygate, two different brexit by elections with different results last year long before partygate based on the brexit fault line.
The fact there is still a fault line is what I’m flagging up. It’s laughable some of the replies to me today saying it’s just partygate all the elections in last 7 months, and there’s no remainer voters still out there hammering Tory’s for brexit. 😂 The serious point at play today is in 2019 Boris said he would heal that division and make it go away, but he hasn’t. It was all part of the deal. It was all part of the appeal.
So at play today, at play in the coming leadership election, at play in all politics in the coming years, Governments need to be flexible and need a big tent, with business and voters, but remaining true to their own Brexit deal has not helped Boris government govern, and all coming governments, of all persuasions and its leaders, are going to be challenged now by exactly this same thing.
Just had a very modest bet on 150-199 votes against Boris at 33/20 with Ladbrokes. Feels both about right and good value.
Its a strange range for them to use given it encompasses both a reasonable win and a fairly significant loss. I would have thought they would have had a break point at 180 which is, after all, the all important number.
Interesting to see this movement on the markets. Does sort-of suggest the 1922 has not gone as well as Big Dog hoped.
There's a leftist Machiavellian side of me that wants him to survive this, only wounded, but when you read a post such as @wooliedyed posted below you are 100% reminded that this is no game and no joke.
I still don’t get the politics behind this quote.. who’s he trying to appeal to? Nadine Dorries and JRM only?
I reckon Boris is going to go full 'Lockdowns were a load of crap and the Liberals/Remainers forced me into them against my better judgment.' That would kind of neutralize the moral implications of the Gray Report. (Can he have done anything wrong if lockdowns were themselves inherently wicked?) Moreover, Post-PM he will also be able to tap into the growing market for Covid-revisionist journalism as 'the Man on the inside'.
Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."
Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.
Thats epic. As I have posted a few times, his "je ne regret rien" nonsense started the avalanche of no confidence letters when he addressed the '22 last time. So if he's done it again he really is a spanner
Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."
For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
Replacing Boris with an actual dog as PM would be a clear improvement.
Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."
For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
Best thing is to chop Big Dog's head off and use it as a sporran.
Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?
HYUFD?
Not sure about rooting for him but I would understand if they were nervous they have no one else so electable as Boris in his prime. But then they only have to beat Starmer.
Talk of him being fatally undermined if it is, say, 130 or 140, could persuade some more cowardly MPs to back him on the basis that the same outcome will result, just slower. Dangerous thinking.
You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma
He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
Just need to reintroduce FOM, get rid of border checks and hey presto, sunny uplands.
Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?
HYUFD?
I would prefer he survived to face the electorate's judgement as I'm not a fan of deposing PMs mid-term - especially when they've won such a large majority.
If they do get rid of him then his successor should have the guts to go the country at the earliest available opportunity (yes I know they'll cling on until the final moment in 2024 in reality)
Just had a very modest bet on 150-199 votes against Boris at 33/20 with Ladbrokes. Feels both about right and good value.
Its a strange range for them to use given it encompasses both a reasonable win and a fairly significant loss. I would have thought they would have had a break point at 180 which is, after all, the all important number.
Yes, that's what I thought! My expectation is that he'll cling on, but unconvincingly, so towards the lower end of that range. 33/20 seemed good value for that, though, given that I think it's highly unlikely it'll be 200+.
Comments
"The worst result this evening would be a narrow win for him - prolonging the agony." https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1533836298464681987 https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1533837480474066945/photo/1
Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
Beats the shit out of Netflix.
Backers above 100 now, would be so funny if he didn't get the numbers of declared backers.
Falstaff as PM is not even close to amusing.
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1533835876689760257
And those misfortunes will be plentiful.
Im done with you if you bottle it
I don't have a strong view either way on the market but the format suits the incumbent.
The 15% to trigger a vote means you need 36% to believe we should replace the PM but not be willing to write a confidential letter to make it happen. 36% for that is a big group to find.
Can we expect anything else between now and 6pm? Revelations of a further love-child? A Zinoviev Letter featuring Putin? Disclosure of a torrid affair with Sue Grey? A tell-all confession that the PM loves pineapple on pizza and hates Radiohead?
When Sunak is sacked as Chancellor, he might reflect on what he could have done this day to end all this.
EDIT: £10 on evens that the toast is toasted?
A non-rebel source says of the '22: "Even if everyone in that room was with the PM (which we know they aren’t…) ... [it] is not enough to win it."
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1533838759254450183
Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune"
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire
Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."
Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=IiuVysaDPAkhFZBK-Zkxfg
With all the by elections and suspensions I have lost count
He has toxified the party and hence shed a lot of sensible Cons votes. The party needs those people to return and BoJo might easily have been a factor in them leaving.
So when looking at Cons' prospects in a GE, polling "Cons voters" is meaningless.
IIRC, was it you who I said to some months ago that I wouldn’t be unduly bothered by the Queen’s demise, that I would see it as interesting in historical terms but that I would emotionally not really bothered? I think it was you.
Well, after this weekend I think I was wrong to say that. I’m not quite a flag-waving monarchist but I will be sad when she goes. I’d like to see the hereditary monarchy abolished, but I think she has done as good a job as anyone could do in the role.
She has been a great servant for the country, a stable figurehead, floating serenely and unsullied above the filthy gutter that is British politics. I will be sad to see her go.
God, maybe I am a monarchist after all?!
Sorry for that interlude everyone, let’s get back to the feverish speculation.
You tell 'em.
Let me spell it out for them from a personal position. I lost my mum to cancer in the first year, i lost time with her knowing she was dying because of your rules. She spent her last months frightened by your rhetoric.
And you 'decompressed'
Fuck you. Fuck you right off.
I still don’t get the politics behind this quote.. who’s he trying to appeal to? Nadine Dorries and JRM only?
Who is there could sit down with Boris and tell him a narrow win is no win? Is there a senior figure he genuinely respects, that could tell him he has to resign?
180 wins assuming all vote (as they did in the VONC in T. May).
Lose in to 6 now. Can't say that's not value when it's the outcome tipped by the trinity of @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi and @david_herdson
It's only half of that constituency.
For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
I’m only trying to help. Let me try again.
I’m not talking Brexit as in we now rejoin, nor that the daggers were ready for today six years ago because of Boris role in it. I’m not even talking about needing dramatic or very noticeable changes to what is already a hard Brexit position.
But Brexit isn’t a historical thing, it’s now a way of governmental life, it’s there in how all governments post brexit will govern. But it’s also true to govern well requires flexibility at problem solving and a big tent approach for support when you need it. Like elections.
I’m explaining that politicians can see this need for flexibility in order to deliver - and see Boris and his government are too tied to a Brexit agreement to be flexible across a range policy as one of the reasons they struggle. For example, immigration policy and how it ties in with a need to be closer and friendlier towards business, important for the right polyeconomic policy. And and they still need to address one HUGE promise from 2019, how Brexit plays in the voting public - it was going on long before partygate, two different brexit by elections with different results last year long before partygate based on the brexit fault line.
The fact there is still a fault line is what I’m flagging up. It’s laughable some of the replies to me today saying it’s just partygate all the elections in last 7 months, and there’s no remainer voters still out there hammering Tory’s for brexit. 😂 The serious point at play today is in 2019 Boris said he would heal that division and make it go away, but he hasn’t. It was all part of the deal. It was all part of the appeal.
So at play today, at play in the coming leadership election, at play in all politics in the coming years,
Governments need to be flexible and need a big tent, with business and voters, but remaining true to their own Brexit deal has not helped Boris government govern, and all coming governments, of all persuasions and its leaders, are going to be challenged now by exactly this same thing.
HYUFD?
I thought a lot of those dour, right wing bores like Anderson, Heffer and Oborne had quietly dropped off the scene these past few years...
There's a leftist Machiavellian side of me that wants him to survive this, only wounded, but when you read a post such as @wooliedyed posted below you are 100% reminded that this is no game and no joke.
He has to go. It's that simple.
What are the positives if he wins? I can't see any. Unless you're the Opposition.
This news brought to you from Anecdote Towers.
I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1533843293427142659
https://twitter.com/beckycnn/status/1533840750395510784
I would prefer he survived to face the electorate's judgement as I'm not a fan of deposing PMs mid-term - especially when they've won such a large majority.
If they do get rid of him then his successor should have the guts to go the country at the earliest available opportunity (yes I know they'll cling on until the final moment in 2024 in reality)