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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454

    Selebian said:

    FPT

    Johnson tells Conservative MPs: “Now is not the moment.”

    Said President Zelensky told him he wanted a “strong UK” this morning


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533828835422220288

    Christ, even Zelensky wants him out? I thought he was supposed to be a fan :wink:
    He is.

    Maybe he'll offer Boris a job?
    Frontline infantry? Barrage balloon?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Can't wait to hear what Prime Minister Raab will do to stabilise the great ship of state in the months of blue blood letting to come.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Pretty brutal conclusion from master reader of the Conservative runes @PaulGoodmanCH

    "The worst result this evening would be a narrow win for him - prolonging the agony." https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1533836298464681987 https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1533837480474066945/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625

    33% still a higher Tory voteshare in Wakefield than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

    Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,815

    Pro_Rata said:

    I remain on 124-235 against Boris.

    I might go for a tad lower margin if I guessed now, but not that much, and I don't see the need to resile from an already stated guess.

    If you think that, there's cracking value at backing the 200-249 band on Betfair at 34s
    I'm not a big actual staker of money on politics, but I'd take that range at 10s, so 34s I'd have no hesitation.

    Backers above 100 now, would be so funny if he didn't get the numbers of declared backers.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    HYUFD said:

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625

    33% still a higher Tory voteshare in Wakefield than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

    Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
    Ah the elections the Tories famously won
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    About to speak on @CNN now about why Boris Johnson must now resign. https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1533726721077280768
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    HYUFD said:

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625

    33% still a higher Tory voteshare in Wakefield than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

    Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
    Also, there is no sense of how big the 'don't know/won't vote' number might be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited June 6

    HYUFD said:

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625

    33% still a higher Tory voteshare in Wakefield than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

    Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
    Ah the elections the Tories famously won
    They did win in 2015, they also got 33% in Wakefield in 1970 when Heath won
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    How much would you like to bet and at what odds?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Not surprised, I have not seen any Scottish Conservative MPs apart from Scotland Minister Alastair Jack come out in support of Boris today.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Some of you might.
    Falstaff as PM is not even close to amusing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,066
    edited June 6
    Having listened closely to people in Moray who re-elected me and people across Scotland, tonight I will support the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1533835876689760257
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,838
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out.
    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424

    "bullish"? Are we sure that wasn't misheard?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now

    I'd say it's 35-40% chance Boris loses outright now (and that's up from c.20% this morning)

    So those odds are value. I've certainly topped up.
    Tempted, but I've already reached my self imposed limit.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    Hunt or Mordaunt, maybe. Both would make the Tories more likely to win, I think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,102
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like piles in my case.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.

    Baker called for Boris to resign back in April. Hardly a surprise he still thinks the same.
    Indeed, but the point is that I don't see where Boris is going to get his support from. If the Brexit spartans are out then where does the 180 come from? It's a secret ballot, Team Pig Dog have no power over anyone in this.
    Baker is hardline on Brexit, but not typical of the Brexit spartans at all. He never was, always more polite, reasonable and considered, the kind of values that the PM does not value or represent.

    I don't have a strong view either way on the market but the format suits the incumbent.

    The 15% to trigger a vote means you need 36% to believe we should replace the PM but not be willing to write a confidential letter to make it happen. 36% for that is a big group to find.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    edited June 6
    Well, that was a good time for Survation to drop.

    Can we expect anything else between now and 6pm? Revelations of a further love-child? A Zinoviev Letter featuring Putin? Disclosure of a torrid affair with Sue Grey? A tell-all confession that the PM loves pineapple on pizza and hates Radiohead?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323

    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    How much would you like to bet and at what odds?
    Are you suggesting people actually bet on politics?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER

    This could be as good as it gets for labour
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,644
    I think the vote against Boris will be in the range 100-149 which Betfair have at 184-1.86. But if the waverers feel Boris is safe the numbers against him could be less and so I've had a speculative £10 at 11.0 on the 50-99 band of VONC against Boris.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,519
    I do kinda get a feeling in my water that the Big-Mo is not with Bo-Jo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Scott_xP said:

    Pretty brutal conclusion from master reader of the Conservative runes @PaulGoodmanCH

    "The worst result this evening would be a narrow win for him - prolonging the agony." https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1533836298464681987 https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1533837480474066945/photo/1

    And that ladies and gentlemen is exactly what we are about to get.

    When Sunak is sacked as Chancellor, he might reflect on what he could have done this day to end all this.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited June 6
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out.
    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out.
    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424

    That reminds me about as strongly as anything's possible to remind me of the "banging on the tables" for Theresa May in the 1922. As mentioned in another thread here recently, the Conservative Party is possibly the best in the West at performative, ritualistic and theatrical displays of loyalty.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938
    edited June 6

    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now

    I'd say it's 35-40% chance Boris loses outright now (and that's up from c.20% this morning)

    So those odds are value. I've certainly topped up.
    I put £70 on Boris losing at 4/1. These odds seem as mispriced to me as at the time of the Brexit and US Presidential votes in 2016.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    edited June 6
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    How much would you like to bet and at what odds?
    Are you suggesting people actually bet on politics?
    Well, it's either that or discussing the merits of pizza toppings, artisan pebbles or overpriced hotels.

    EDIT: £10 on evens that the toast is toasted?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,066
    Whisper it, but Tories are starting to talk about the prospect of PM losing.

    A non-rebel source says of the '22: "Even if everyone in that room was with the PM (which we know they aren’t…) ... [it] is not enough to win it."


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1533838759254450183
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Senior party source after meeting: "Is there any one here who hasn't got pissed? Is there anyone here who doesn't like a glass of wine to decompress?"
    Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson told the meeting "the best is yet to come".
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533835719168376832

    This is true.

    The day he leaves will be his best day in office.

    I wonder if he actually believes this bullshit?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323
    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Really? Did he really say that?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,066
    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    10 print 'EXPECTATIONS MANAGEMENT!\n'
    20 GOTO 10
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,102

    Well, this is all very exciting boys and girls, isn't it?

    Beats the shit out of Netflix.

    It really is. I'm pulsing. Have also topped up on him losing at the drifted price. C'mon Tory MPs. Self interest coincides with moral compass here. That doesn't happen too often. Not to be spurned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    edited June 6
    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=IiuVysaDPAkhFZBK-Zkxfg
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    Can someone confirm the exact number of conservative mps that will be voting tonight

    With all the by elections and suspensions I have lost count
  • Scott_xP said:

    Senior party source after meeting: "Is there any one here who hasn't got pissed? Is there anyone here who doesn't like a glass of wine to decompress?"
    Says Johnson told the meeting Partygate was being pushed obsessively by the media and he won't "dance to the media's tune"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533839269051113475

    When you start channelling Nixon, alarm bells start ringing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,643
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:
    Did you think by any chance that ex-Cons voters want him to leave and, with him not there, become Cons voters once more.

    He has toxified the party and hence shed a lot of sensible Cons votes. The party needs those people to return and BoJo might easily have been a factor in them leaving.

    So when looking at Cons' prospects in a GE, polling "Cons voters" is meaningless.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Err.. is this actually real? Or is he just given up
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    That's a pretty bold statement. But, not one that's calculated to gain support.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Top stuff Big Dog!!!

    You tell 'em.

  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 16
    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Most honest thing he’s ever said?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited June 6

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Is that a joke - it is in terrible taste if it is
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476
    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    I have a feeling in my water that the unflushable turd will tonight flush.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Most honest thing he’s ever said?
    Very good.

    I still don’t get the politics behind this quote.. who’s he trying to appeal to? Nadine Dorries and JRM only?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    That is very harsh. I remember Kurran from the Apprentice 2018.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Tory MPs. If you vote to keep him then every misfortune that befalls the party is on you.
    And those misfortunes will be plentiful.
    Im done with you if you bottle it


    The idea of a narrow win being spun as some sort of mandate will just be laughed at.

    Who is there could sit down with Boris and tell him a narrow win is no win? Is there a senior figure he genuinely respects, that could tell him he has to resign?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    I have a feeling in my water that the unflushable turd will tonight flush.
    Down to 6 on BF.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Well, there was Lord Melbourne.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Dropping like a stone on BF
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    Can someone confirm the exact number of conservative mps that will be voting tonight

    With all the by elections and suspensions I have lost count

    359.

    180 wins assuming all vote (as they did in the VONC in T. May).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Each and every Tory MP will have to expend personal integrity defending this on the doorsteps if Johnson survives the vote tonight: https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Yay, can bet with betfair despite Italy

    Lose in to 6 now. Can't say that's not value when it's the outcome tipped by the trinity of @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi and @david_herdson
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,287

    Selebian said:

    FPT

    Johnson tells Conservative MPs: “Now is not the moment.”

    Said President Zelensky told him he wanted a “strong UK” this morning


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533828835422220288

    Christ, even Zelensky wants him out? I thought he was supposed to be a fan :wink:
    He is.

    Maybe he'll offer Boris a job?
    A particular type of rat has done a lot to redeem the breed’s reputation by clearing mine fields I believe?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476

    Tory MPs. If you vote to keep him then every misfortune that befalls the party is on you.
    And those misfortunes will be plentiful.
    Im done with you if you bottle it


    The idea of a narrow win being spun as some sort of mandate will just be laughed at.

    Who is there could sit down with Boris and tell him a narrow win is no win? Is there a senior figure he genuinely respects, that could tell him he has to resign?
    There is a precedent for a 52% to 48% vote being decisive.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,766
    Just had a very modest bet on 150-199 votes against Boris at 33/20 with Ladbrokes. Feels both about right and good value.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    That 'contrition' line didn't last long:

    Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."


    Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.

    Thats epic. As I have posted a few times, his "je ne regret rien" nonsense started the avalanche of no confidence letters when he addressed the '22 last time. So if he's done it again he really is a spanner
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    HYUFD said:

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625

    33% still a higher Tory voteshare in Wakefield than they got in 1997, 2001 and 2005.

    Also only 1% less than the 34% Cameron got in Wakefield in 2015
    Wakefield wasn't Wakefield before 2010.
    It's only half of that constituency.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Big_Ian said:

    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog

    Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."

    For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Lose 5.4 on bf
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508
    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.

    Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.

    https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568

    It’s not about Brexit?

    If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.

    This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.


    This is soooooooooo tedious. Look, as a remainer who probably wanted to rejoin I fully accept it ain't gonna happen. Brexit has been and GONE. We have to live with it now for good or ill, mostly the latter.

    There are a hundred things which matter and as many reasons why Johnson is a liability. Brexit isn't one of them.
    And you are not listening 🙂 Mind you, I don’t think anyone else on here actually is either. I’m simply deluded apparently not merely tedious.

    I’m only trying to help. Let me try again.

    I’m not talking Brexit as in we now rejoin, nor that the daggers were ready for today six years ago because of Boris role in it. I’m not even talking about needing dramatic or very noticeable changes to what is already a hard Brexit position.

    But Brexit isn’t a historical thing, it’s now a way of governmental life, it’s there in how all governments post brexit will govern. But it’s also true to govern well requires flexibility at problem solving and a big tent approach for support when you need it. Like elections.

    I’m explaining that politicians can see this need for flexibility in order to deliver - and see Boris and his government are too tied to a Brexit agreement to be flexible across a range policy as one of the reasons they struggle. For example, immigration policy and how it ties in with a need to be closer and friendlier towards business, important for the right polyeconomic policy. And and they still need to address one HUGE promise from 2019, how Brexit plays in the voting public - it was going on long before partygate, two different brexit by elections with different results last year long before partygate based on the brexit fault line.

    The fact there is still a fault line is what I’m flagging up. It’s laughable some of the replies to me today saying it’s just partygate all the elections in last 7 months, and there’s no remainer voters still out there hammering Tory’s for brexit. 😂 The serious point at play today is in 2019 Boris said he would heal that division and make it go away, but he hasn’t. It was all part of the deal. It was all part of the appeal.

    So at play today, at play in the coming leadership election, at play in all politics in the coming years,
    Governments need to be flexible and need a big tent, with business and voters, but remaining true to their own Brexit deal has not helped Boris government govern, and all coming governments, of all persuasions and its leaders, are going to be challenged now by exactly this same thing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Can someone confirm the exact number of conservative mps that will be voting tonight

    With all the by elections and suspensions I have lost count

    359.

    180 wins assuming all vote (as they did in the VONC in T. May).
    Thanks
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?

    HYUFD?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575
    Cookie said:

    Just had a very modest bet on 150-199 votes against Boris at 33/20 with Ladbrokes. Feels both about right and good value.

    Its a strange range for them to use given it encompasses both a reasonable win and a fairly significant loss. I would have thought they would have had a break point at 180 which is, after all, the all important number.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=IiuVysaDPAkhFZBK-Zkxfg

    That's nuts.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited June 6

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Gosh is that miserable old duffer still going (Bruce, not Boris) ? ;)

    I thought a lot of those dour, right wing bores like Anderson, Heffer and Oborne had quietly dropped off the scene these past few years...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    IshmaelZ said:

    Lose 5.4 on bf

    Interesting to see this movement on the markets. Does sort-of suggest the 1922 has not gone as well as Big Dog hoped.

    There's a leftist Machiavellian side of me that wants him to survive this, only wounded, but when you read a post such as @wooliedyed posted below you are 100% reminded that this is no game and no joke.

    He has to go. It's that simple.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=IiuVysaDPAkhFZBK-Zkxfg

    That's nuts.
    Good luck to those Tory MPs voting in favour of him after that
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,102

    DougSeal said:

    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.

    I have a feeling in my water that the unflushable turd will tonight flush.
    I do too. This could be a shirt off running around the garden moment. First one since the 2017 exit poll.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?

    HYUFD?

    This is why I think he'll lose.
    What are the positives if he wins? I can't see any. Unless you're the Opposition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,244
    I've consulted with my most Boris fan relative. He's furious the party might remove him, but would not venture an opinion as to if they will.

    This news brought to you from Anecdote Towers.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,251

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    Most honest thing he’s ever said?
    Very good.

    I still don’t get the politics behind this quote.. who’s he trying to appeal to? Nadine Dorries and JRM only?
    I reckon Boris is going to go full 'Lockdowns were a load of crap and the Liberals/Remainers forced me into them against my better judgment.' That would kind of neutralize the moral implications of the Gray Report. (Can he have done anything wrong if lockdowns were themselves inherently wicked?) Moreover, Post-PM he will also be able to tap into the growing market for Covid-revisionist journalism as 'the Man on the inside'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    This morning I estimated the rebels would get at least 130 votes. I'm sticking with that.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,109
    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    That 'contrition' line didn't last long:

    Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."


    Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.

    Thats epic. As I have posted a few times, his "je ne regret rien" nonsense started the avalanche of no confidence letters when he addressed the '22 last time. So if he's done it again he really is a spanner
    He can't help himself, can he?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476
    Cruella says on BBC World that one vote in Johnson's favour is decisive.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,958

    Big_Ian said:

    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog

    Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."

    For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
    Replacing Boris with an actual dog as PM would be a clear improvement.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Boris Johnson’s lies are not an accidental or occasional feature of his personality - they are the reason he is ultimately unable to lead, win trust, make proper use of his majority or get things done. If MPs grant him another year it will be another wasted year for Britain.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1533843293427142659
    https://twitter.com/beckycnn/status/1533840750395510784
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

    I think that will be the line that makes him lose the vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    Big_Ian said:

    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog

    Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."

    For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
    Best thing is to chop Big Dog's head off and use it as a sporran.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,634

    Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?

    HYUFD?

    Not sure about rooting for him but I would understand if they were nervous they have no one else so electable as Boris in his prime. But then they only have to beat Starmer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,244
    Talk of him being fatally undermined if it is, say, 130 or 140, could persuade some more cowardly MPs to back him on the basis that the same outcome will result, just slower. Dangerous thinking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,404
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
    Just need to reintroduce FOM, get rid of border checks and hey presto, sunny uplands.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    He is still more than 50 public pledges short of what he needs with less than an hour to go.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?

    If Sunak wants this, he has about 50mins to try and seize the crown.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551

    Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?

    HYUFD?


    I would prefer he survived to face the electorate's judgement as I'm not a fan of deposing PMs mid-term - especially when they've won such a large majority.

    If they do get rid of him then his successor should have the guts to go the country at the earliest available opportunity (yes I know they'll cling on until the final moment in 2024 in reality)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,766

    Cookie said:

    Just had a very modest bet on 150-199 votes against Boris at 33/20 with Ladbrokes. Feels both about right and good value.

    Its a strange range for them to use given it encompasses both a reasonable win and a fairly significant loss. I would have thought they would have had a break point at 180 which is, after all, the all important number.
    Yes, that's what I thought! My expectation is that he'll cling on, but unconvincingly, so towards the lower end of that range. 33/20 seemed good value for that, though, given that I think it's highly unlikely it'll be 200+.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    GIN1138 said:

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Gosh is that miserable old duffer still going (Bruce, not Boris) ? ;)

    I thought a lot of those dour, right wing bores like Anderson, Heffer and Oborne had quietly dropped off the scene these past few years...
    Bruce Anderson of course wrote an article in the 1997 general election campaign saying why John Major would be re elected
This discussion has been closed.