Even the oldies are now giving Johnson negative ratings – politicalbetting.com

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

wooliedyed said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

Tone deaf. Not a clue

And the same point was made on pb in the last thread so, erm, Fabricant was right.

That's the difference between outsiders discussing practicalities of where we are and a colleague having a bit of fun with it. The latter is distasteful.

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

wooliedyed said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

Tone deaf. Not a clue

And the same point was made on pb in the last thread so, erm, Fabricant was right.

That's the difference between outsiders discussing practicalities of where we are and a colleague having a bit of fun with it. The latter is distasteful.

I always think that Fabricant looks like a caricature of Boris Johnson. He could be a stunt double for Bozo's Spitting Image puppet.

He's a 7th generation clone.

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

One ill advised tweet but otherwise Michael Fabricant is one of the most colourful characters in the Commons and a hardworking local MP.

Hence he got 64% of the vote in Lichfield in 2019

noneoftheabove said:

Taz said:

Good for the RMT in this case.

Toxic workplaces should not be tolerated.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tube-strike-announced-for-jubilee-weekend/ar-AAXpANs?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=73c2edc67d824863a2a98007294c91d6

Obviously those of us who do not work there won't know the details and such bullying should be challenged and addressed, but it is remarkable how many strike days on TfL seem to occur on or around weekends and bank holidays. Prediction - if the weather is wet and miserable that day, it will get resolved, if its sunny, the strike will go ahead.

Andy_JS said:

RochdalePioneers said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

You get what you vote for. What kind of person do you have to be to turn out to vote for *that*? And yet when @Heathener tried to describe them justly got roundly attacked for it.

Keep insulting the voters and Labour will be out of power for another 10 years.

Scott_xP said:

Former British Diplomat @alexhallhall has now named current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the minister responsible for these remarks. https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1453091619213824007

Applicant said:

Taz said:

Good for the RMT in this case.

Toxic workplaces should not be tolerated.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tube-strike-announced-for-jubilee-weekend/ar-AAXpANs?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=73c2edc67d824863a2a98007294c91d6

And punishing thousands of tourists visiting London for the day is a great way to resolve the dispute.

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_xP said:

Former British Diplomat @alexhallhall has now named current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the minister responsible for these remarks. https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1453091619213824007

Truss should resign if that's true. Even Boris as FO wouldn't have come out with anything so crass.

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

noneoftheabove said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_xP said:

Former British Diplomat @alexhallhall has now named current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the minister responsible for these remarks. https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1453091619213824007

Truss should resign if that's true. Even Boris as FO wouldn't have come out with anything so crass.

In Bluekip that means promotion rather than resignation! Crass drives headlines and division, so all very welcome.

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_xP said:

Former British Diplomat @alexhallhall has now named current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the minister responsible for these remarks. https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1453091619213824007

Truss should resign if that's true. Even Boris as FO wouldn't have come out with anything so crass.

MoonRabbit said:

Poll watch and MoonRabbit analysis.

Last 5 polls before local elections, Labour in 40s in all. All 7 polls since local elections, Labour not once in 40s.

Last 5 polls before local elections, Tories 34, 33, 35, 35, 35, since local elections, 35, 34, 34, 33, 33, 34, 35.

The other measurement, Lab Lib green added together, not shrunk at all since locals, despite lower Lab scores, Lib clearly up and green too.

Conclusion. Gap closing, but not thanks to Tories gaining.

Usual Caveats. There is consistent trend, Tories not above 35, labour 4 or 5 clear, but Vagaries of samples could easily throw up misleading headlines showing nothing between the main parties. And once a month Tories always get a bonus of Opinium, Kantor (and occasional yougov joins in) always showing smallest leads, like several buses coming at once, so it depends which part of the month, the Labour bit or Tory bit you look at it. Also for trends we need to look at similar movement from the one poster polls showing up in other posters polls.

In terms of political narrative, my hunch is Torys need a lead soon as this month is their opportunity, as they are taking a lot of negative flak in media last week or so, this may not show immediately in polling (some say it takes couple of weeks).

That couple of weeks to impact polls suggestion is interesting, has it ever been proved? It feels like it is happening, but makes no sense why it’s not quicker? The hammering of Starmer before locals didn’t seem to show in his ratings at first, but is beginning to now, two weeks later?

So as we move into June the polls will start to show Tories drifting further behind is my call. Possibly beginning of a 92-97 polling death spiral. That’s my analysis and prediction.

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

wooliedyed said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

Tone deaf. Not a clue

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Oh dear, for someone who likes to pretend he is expert in this you don't have much ability to analyse. The result in 2017 was ambiguous because a lot of people assumed that TMay was going to get a landslide. The electorate swung back to Labour because they thought there was zero chance of a Corbyn win. When people realised how close we came to PM Corbyn they voted in 2019for Dumb rather than Dumber to keep Dumb out. OGH's polling data demonstrated this was by far the strongest motivation for previous Labour voters to vote Conservative IIRC. I suspect a large number of these voters couldn't give a flying fuck about "get Brexit done", but that is just my opinion, which has about as much supporting evidence as bit of CCHQ propaganda.

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

Poll watch and MoonRabbit analysis.

Last 5 polls before local elections, Labour in 40s in all. All 7 polls since local elections, Labour not once in 40s.

Last 5 polls before local elections, Tories 34, 33, 35, 35, 35, since local elections, 35, 34, 34, 33, 33, 34, 35.

The other measurement, Lab Lib green added together, not shrunk at all since locals, despite lower Lab scores, Lib clearly up and green too.

Conclusion. Gap closing, but not thanks to Tories gaining.

Usual Caveats. There is consistent trend, Tories not above 35, labour 4 or 5 clear, but Vagaries of samples could easily throw up misleading headlines showing nothing between the main parties. And once a month Tories always get a bonus of Opinium, Kantor (and occasional yougov joins in) always showing smallest leads, like several buses coming at once, so it depends which part of the month, the Labour bit or Tory bit you look at it. Also for trends we need to look at similar movement from the one poster polls showing up in other posters polls.

In terms of political narrative, my hunch is Torys need a lead soon as this month is their opportunity, as they are taking a lot of negative flak in media last week or so, this may not show immediately in polling (some say it takes couple of weeks).

That couple of weeks to impact polls suggestion is interesting, has it ever been proved? It feels like it is happening, but makes no sense why it’s not quicker? The hammering of Starmer before locals didn’t seem to show in his ratings at first, but is beginning to now, two weeks later?

So as we move into June the polls will start to show Tories drifting further behind is my call. Possibly beginning of a 92-97 polling death spiral. That’s my analysis and prediction.

The Tories were 20% behind in many polls pre 1997. They are barely 5% behind now in most polls

Carnyx said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

wooliedyed said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

Tone deaf. Not a clue

And the same point was made on pb in the last thread so, erm, Fabricant was right.

That's the difference between outsiders discussing practicalities of where we are and a colleague having a bit of fun with it. The latter is distasteful.

I always think that Fabricant looks like a caricature of Boris Johnson. He could be a stunt double for Bozo's Spitting Image puppet.

He's a 7th generation clone.

'The ontological status of the fabricant, though articulated as cognitively coherent and definitively Other, [...] is nonetheless perpetually unsettled [...], oscillating between organic and inorganic, simultaneously manifesting properties of the machine, the human, the clone and the cyborg.'

From Dunlop, 'Speculative Fiction as Postcolonial Critique' in 'David Mitchell: Critical Essays'.

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Oh dear, for someone who likes to pretend he is expert in this you don't have much ability to analyse. The result in 2017 was ambiguous because a lot of people assumed that TMay was going to get a landslide. The electorate swung back to Labour because they thought there was zero chance of a Corbyn win. When people realised how close we came to PM Corbyn they voted in 2019for Dumb rather than Dumber to keep Dumb out. OGH's polling data demonstrated this was by far the strongest motivation for previous Labour voters to vote Conservative IIRC. I suspect a large number of these voters couldn't give a flying fuck about "get Brexit done", but that is just my opinion, which has about as much supporting evidence as bit of CCHQ propaganda.

Yet at the local elections last month the Tories made gains in Leave areas in the North and Midlands from Sandwell to Bolton and held Dudley and Walsall even with Corbyn gone while also advancing further in Leave areas of Essex like Harlow.

Yet in Remain areas of London and the South the Tories lost councils like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Woking, Tunbridge Wells, Wokingham, West Oxfordshire etc (also losing wealthy Theydon Bois and Ingatestone in Essex to the LDs) now Starmer has replaced Corbyn and is less of a threat to wealth Remainers

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Oh dear, for someone who likes to pretend he is expert in this you don't have much ability to analyse. The result in 2017 was ambiguous because a lot of people assumed that TMay was going to get a landslide. The electorate swung back to Labour because they thought there was zero chance of a Corbyn win. When people realised how close we came to PM Corbyn they voted in 2019for Dumb rather than Dumber to keep Dumb out. OGH's polling data demonstrated this was by far the strongest motivation for previous Labour voters to vote Conservative IIRC. I suspect a large number of these voters couldn't give a flying fuck about "get Brexit done", but that is just my opinion, which has about as much supporting evidence as bit of CCHQ propaganda.

I do think you have to factor in the Brexit fatigue factor in 2019. People were sick of hearing about it:

@AaronBastani
Speaking to a young guy after an event recently I was struck by what he said “Imagine with Covid, inflation & Russia we were still arguing over Brexit? It still wouldn’t be solved today. Only one party offered a conclusion in 2019”.

The only answer is that is absolutely right.

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1524465356567371778

You have to admire the electoral genius/chutzpah of a party that creates a problem, then wins an election by promising to solve the problem, and then hopes to win the next election by promising to tear up that solution because it's shit.

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Incidentally, I assume that Boris can't have forgotten what he did when he was mayor, so I assume his "I started Crossrail" boast was yet another lie.

What exactly did he say? If he says that construction started when he was mayor, that I think that's correct. He became mayor in 2008, and construction started in 2009.

Of course, the project was a longstanding one, with the original idea coming from George Down during WWII, and the Crossrail name being nearly as old as I am.

However given the mess Crossrail became, I'm surprised people actually want to 'own' the project...

Taz said:

Applicant said:

Taz said:

Good for the RMT in this case.

Toxic workplaces should not be tolerated.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tube-strike-announced-for-jubilee-weekend/ar-AAXpANs?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=73c2edc67d824863a2a98007294c91d6

And punishing thousands of tourists visiting London for the day is a great way to resolve the dispute.

They need to maximise their leverage. Don't blame them.

Selebian said:

Nigelb said:

wooliedyed said:

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1526865527246831616

Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
@Mike_Fabricant
I am expecting a strong turnout of Conservative MPs at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Not only to demonstrate their strong support for #Boris (!!). BUT also to prove they are NOT the one told by the Chief Whip to stay at home. I'll be there!😜

Disgusting

Tory whips have asked him to remove it according to BBC2

What are the people of Lichfield thinking electing such a twat

Tone deaf. Not a clue

Bit harsh to characterise the entire population of Lichfield like that.

Yep. Only evident for the approx 45% of the electorate that voted for him, to be fair.

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

It was the free tuition fees he offered that really attracted them

Applicant said:

Taz said:

Applicant said:

Taz said:

Good for the RMT in this case.

Toxic workplaces should not be tolerated.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tube-strike-announced-for-jubilee-weekend/ar-AAXpANs?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=73c2edc67d824863a2a98007294c91d6

And punishing thousands of tourists visiting London for the day is a great way to resolve the dispute.

They need to maximise their leverage. Don't blame them.

And fuck the tourists, eh?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

An education doesn't necessarily immunise the young person, or an older one for that matter, from gullibility.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Partaking in the WFH review meeting somebody* brought up an excellent point.

Commuting and petrol prices have gone up a lot and the government wants us to go back to the office and be even poorer. They can fuck right off.

The optics are terrible for the government and expect them to become unpopular.

*Not me, yes I’m as surprised as you.

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

It was the free tuition fees he offered that really attracted them

biggles said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

It was the free tuition fees he offered that really attracted them

Erm, no. I loath Corbyn and his ilk more than most but that wasn’t his appeal. It might have been part of it but when you spoke to those who loved him and weren’t previously politically engaged (e.g. weren’t the usual far left mob) it was because he spoke with compassion and about hope for the future.

Nigelb said:

First reported ground launched Brimstone combat use.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1526871355815337987
The first ever footage of what is claimed by the Ukrainian side to be UK-supplied Brimstone missiles in use against Russian forces in the East.

Two tanks are struck in very rapid succession- it is said this is deep behind the front lines.

Actually a very cost effective stand off weapon - we've signed some deal to re-equip some of Poland's old AFVs with it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

logical_song said:

MoonRabbit said:

Heathener said:

My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

I agree with you about Labour possibly struggling in Wakefield, Heathener. If your messaging and persuasive skills can’t even prevent the local party resigning on mass, how is it going to persuade voters to switch?

Yesterday I placed bully on Tories at 6-1. Any sort of candidate from ‘disgruntled, red wall, leave their entire lives labour’ splitting the vote surely hands this one to Tories?

In a way, as a wake up call (see what I did there) it might be some good for Labour, slapped with a wet cold haddock to realise now rather than two years they have problems appealing in the red wall Tory seats, this failure coming soon after similar struggles recent local election night.

However, it also gives Tory’s a path back to Downing Street, if they are really underhand and despicably not playing by the rules to take it - to find and field anti Starmer labour splitters in all the red wall defences at next election. The story of election night would be, Tories 21K, Labour 19K, Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ 5K, over and over throughout the night.

You're thinking that Brexit is still popular in the ex-Red Wall seats. If so why would the 'Leave Labour ‘protect brexit’ candidate not hurt the Tories?
No the Tories won those seats by convincing voters that the Tories would not ignore them as Labour had for years.

Nope they voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. Nothing more

No, otherwise they would have voted Tory in 2017 too when Corbyn was also Labour leader rather than Labour.

The redwall seats voted Tory in 2019 to get Brexit done, not just beat Corbyn

You keep claiming this and yet the polling data produced by OGH confirms my point. Stop repeating propaganda, and try not to start your sentences with "no" when you are only stating an unsupported opinion.

It doesn't.

The voting evidence refutes it. The redwall seats voted for Corbyn in 2017 remember, they only voted for Boris and the Tories in 2019 to get Brexit done.

The voting evidence again confirmed it in the local elections this month with a far bigger swing against the Tories in Remain voting areas of London and the Home counties than in Leave areas of the redwall

Perhaps they preferred Jezza to Theresa but preferred Boris to Jezza. That would make sense as Theresa was the archetypal Tory woman who'd have got their backs up, whereas Boris's appeal famously transcends party preferences.

I rather wonder that our education system produces people that like Corbyn. You may as well emerge from uni and try to eat rocks. Quite how the stupidest people on the planet inflame the allegedly educated young baffles me entirely.

It was the free tuition fees he offered that really attracted them

Quite, when the current lot have hiked up the vigorish on student loans to a level that would shame a Sarf London gangster resident in a nice gaff in Epping.

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Scott_xP said:

Former British Diplomat @alexhallhall has now named current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the minister responsible for these remarks. https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1453091619213824007

Good for her if so. 👍

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

turbotubbs said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

I offer up the Conservative definition of a 'new' and indeed 'hospital' for the court...

Northern_Al said:

turbotubbs said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

I offer up the Conservative definition of a 'new' and indeed 'hospital' for the court...

Ah, you mean counting a new car parking space for the Chief Executive outside a hospital as a "new hospital". That kind of thing?

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

I mean, they're literally intending for people to hear "you'll get £600" and gloss over the "up to".

And, yeah, I'm not saying they're any worse than the other side. As usual, they're all pretty much the same.

MISTY said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

Sure, Windfall taxes are a terrible idea which usually end up with the customer paying.

No good Conservative should support a windfall tax, they are the ultimate virtual signal tax.

Which is why I expect this government to announce one soon.

Ten minutes after they do, labour will say 'it doesn't go far enough'

Which is, essentially, all they have been saying since December 2019.

Northern_Al said:

turbotubbs said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

I offer up the Conservative definition of a 'new' and indeed 'hospital' for the court...

Ah, you mean counting a new car parking space for the Chief Executive outside a hospital as a "new hospital". That kind of thing?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Applicant said:

Northern_Al said:

Taz said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

It is hard to argue with Dan Hodges on this

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

'Is there anyone in No.10, No.11, the wider Government, the wider Conservative party, the country, the continent, the globe, any sentient being this side of the Milky Way, who can explain the current Tory strategy on an Energy Windfall Tax...'


I really cannot understand the conservative party in all of this, but then I cannot understand why Starmer and labour are not out of sight in the polls

As an aside I have not commented on 'beergate' for quite a while but it interesting that Durham police indicate 20 questionnaires are being sent out

Starmer originally said there were 6, then 15 and now it looks like 20

Why does he prevaricate rather than be upfront

Also Rachel Reeves has just admitted in the house of commons that labour's windfall tax would raise about £100 per household, not the £200 or even £600 quoted by labour mps

And you wonder why he public says a plague on all your houses

New Labour being dishonest.

Well I'm shocked.

It really is a plague on all their houses. Labour promised £600 of our bills through their windfall tax. It is nothing of the sort. It just gets seen for what it is. cheap politics.

Not the case. Labour has always said that it is only the poorest households that will get £600 off their bills, and carefully couched it as 'up to £600', with most getting less or nothing. The refund (for want of a better word) will be on a sliding scale, with those who don't need help with paying their bills (e.g. most PB posters, including me) not getting a penny. That's also why Reeves' assertion that the total raised will be equivalent to £100 per household is accurate.

I mean, you've basically agreed that they've been dishonest. "carefully couched"???

Well, it's not my fault if people can't read or if the press don't report properly. Here's the actual wording from the Labour Party website on the press release that first announced the policy; it doesn't look dishonest to me:

“Labour will stand up for the millions of families across the country, with a package that won’t just help the average household with around £200 off bills, but also targeted and focused support for those who need it most – including low earners, pensioners and the squeezed middle – with up to £600 in total off their bills.”

They're intending for people to hear "you'll get £600".

Not their fault if people ignore the words "up to", which are always included.

I agree they're spinning it a bit, in stark contrast to Boris's Tories who would never dream of putting a gloss on something to make it sound better than it is.

Now here is labour's problem in one comment

Keir Starmer has committed to resign if he gets a FPN and demands everyone in Labour tells the truth

Spinning is misleading the public and below Starmer's bar he has set labour