There are signs of a Liberal Democrat advance in the "Blue Wall" territory of Brentwood, in Essex.
In the first five wards declared, their vote was up by 19 percentage points compared with 2018, and by 5 points compared with last year. Meanwhile the Conservatives are down by 2 - 3 points compared with both years.
Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.
Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.
Hardly any results are in and you’re always going to get local factors . It’s too early to say .
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
Don't think this local election tells us anything much either way about the general election... but this certainly doesn't feel like one of those seminal local elections like 1995/1996 or 2006/2007...
It's reminiscent of the local elections when loads of Tories were preparing a coup against IDS and then had to backtrack when the results turned out to be pretty good.
Don't think this local election tells us anything much either way about the general election... but this certainly doesn't feel like one of those seminal local elections like 1995/1996 or 2006/2007...
No, it doesn't, although London may prove different.
Northern Ireland will likely be first, second and third headline if Sinn Fein win - which perhaps both main party leaders will be happy about.
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
Arguably the worst result of the night for Labour (so far) losing seats in Bolton pretty much confirms Labour have failed to win back any red wall voters, if anything more have gone Tory.
Hardly any results are in and you’re always going to get local factors . It’s too early to say .
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522365801277399040 "We know, that just on the vote switching from our poll taken today, Labour gets back to roughly neck-and-neck, i.e. the position they were in in when English seats were last fought in 2018. BUT!!!
There will still be some realignment within this. Since 2018 Labour and Tories voter coalition has changed quite substantially (most notably, Leave voters have moved towards Con, Remain voters have moved towards Lab) so we will still be seeing some of this play through tonight.
AND!
The big unknown we still have is turnout. There is an expectation that more Tory voters won't bother to vote than Labour voters...but we really can't tell until we get more results in.
My best guess at this stage is that both of the above is happening, and it is canceling out in some of the earlier Leave-leaning areas (which is why we are seeing small swings to Con's so far).
When everything plays out, I think we will end up with a small lab lead."
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
People are less likely to vote tactically in council elections , come a GE things will be different . But the trend at the moment looks like the Lib Dems could cause a lot of problems for the Tories in the south .
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.
They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
People are less likely to vote tactically in council elections , come a GE things will be different . But the trend at the moment looks like the Lib Dems could cause a lot of problems for the Tories in the south .
It was the greens voting green in general election I was referring to.
News from Prof Curtis There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections.
Will there be pressure Nick for Starmer to go as the results were not great this time last year as he lost Hartlepool 12 months ago.
According to prof Curtice results currently show a 1% swing from Labour to Conservatives. And that’s quite a lot of red wall seats declared now.
Also according to Prof Curtice, There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections. So despite all expectations of stay at home Disgruntled voters, Tories have clearly got their vote out.
Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting
Voting turnout: 27.64% Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED Kay Morrison Labour 674 Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116 William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47
Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting
Voting turnout: 27.64% Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED Kay Morrison Labour 674 Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116 William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.
They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
They are nuts. What’s this about the revolution eats it’s own. Sensible long standing greens are getting eaten by weird undernourished vegan wokists. Libdem and Labour can’t rely on these people for support, they are now on a mission.
Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
It does to me - former Labour voters like me still feel betrayed by Labour on Brexit
Also Starmer drinking in Durham and the fact that Labour have no idea how to address any of the economic problems the country faces - in fact it would probably make them even worse in a number of ways.
Centre-left politics is all about spending more of other people's money, and, as Brown found out, when there is none, it has nothing to say.
The tories who are currently ensuring the worst cost of living crisis in a generation and potentially leading the country into a recession are still doing better than Labour. This just shows what a mess the Labour Party is in and that Keir isn’t the man to bring the W for labour.
Bush Fair (Harlow) Conservative GAIN from Labour by 4 votes for those counting
Voting turnout: 27.64% Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED Kay Morrison Labour 674 Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116 William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47
I wonder if the lesson for the evening for the Conservatives is going to be “play first-past-the-post games, win first-past-the-post prizes”. Now that Labour has a transfer-friendly leader once more, it looks like tactical voting is back in a big way.
It will have to be. If this green and Libdem vote stays put in seats Labour need to win, they will struggle to get passed 250 or 260 seats at the general elections.
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
The greens in my part of the midlands are in chaos. A councillor allegedly sexually harassed a very loud green trans activist. The allegations went all over Twitter and blew apart the - hitherto rather effective - local party. It’s now all out war. On Twitter.
They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
They are nuts. What’s this about the revolution eats it’s own. Sensible long standing greens are getting eaten by weird undernourished vegan wokists. Libdem and Labour can’t rely on these people for support, they are now on a mission.
Flipping eck. I’m beginning to sound just like Leon. Maybe I’m getting old.
Why are the BBC Sky etc results websites so bad? I want to see gains/losses and net, and a matrix of who gained how many seats off which party. It's not difficult.
Should this really be happening in so many places? It’s mid term. Partygate. Extra taxes in middle of credit crunch. It don’t make much sense?
Leave areas don't trust the man most associated with "people's vote" / trying to cancel Brexit?
Nail on head
Brexit Brexit bloody Brexit. It’s still alive and well in English and Wales voting. The country still has Boris beating through its veins 🙁 🙁 🙁
The main parties let all the leave voters down until Boris came on the scene - voters will not forget - it's a strange world for when Boris goes BIG - G will vote Conservative again and I will vote Green - never Labour
Has everyone seen that there is a video of a naked Madison Cawthorn rubbing his bare "bits" on another man's face while groaning.
There's nothing wrong with that behaviour, as it's just two consenting adults, etc.
But I do find the way - in today's Republican Party - he's busy making possibly the least persuasive "I'm not gay, this is just a things guys do all the time" line I think I've ever heard.
Spectacular result for the Green in Plympton Chaddlewood (Plymouth), coming from nowhere to split the big 2 with 57.7% of the vote. Is there a local effect to do with nuclear submarines?
Turnout: 35.7% Candidate Party Votes Christopher James Cuddihee Labour Party 163 -23.6% Glenn Robert Jordan Conservative Party 770 -26.4% Ian Andrew Poyser Green Party 1,273 +57.7%
Comments
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
Con: 48.6% (+4.4)
Lab: 44.0% (-2.1)
Grn: 7.4% (+7.4)
Whenever the LD’s go for it in the blue wall, they meet a receptive audience.
Lab -6
Con -4
LD +5
Green +4
Ind +1
Northern Ireland will likely be first, second and third headline if Sinn Fein win - which perhaps both main party leaders will be happy about.
Boris isn't going anywhere immediately.
Back to Sue...
I wouldn’t trust the greens to be honest with you, us libdems are more savvy and anti Boris, the greens I personally know now see themselves at war with and destined to beat everyone, none of the establishment parties worthy of their vote.
Acid test looks to be where it goes the most.
"We know, that just on the vote switching from our poll taken today, Labour gets back to roughly neck-and-neck, i.e. the position they were in in when English seats were last fought in 2018. BUT!!!
There will still be some realignment within this. Since 2018 Labour and Tories voter coalition has changed quite substantially (most notably, Leave voters have moved towards Con, Remain voters have moved towards Lab) so we will still be seeing some of this play through tonight.
AND!
The big unknown we still have is turnout. There is an expectation that more Tory voters won't bother to vote than Labour voters...but we really can't tell until we get more results in.
My best guess at this stage is that both of the above is happening, and it is canceling out in some of the earlier Leave-leaning areas (which is why we are seeing small swings to Con's so far).
When everything plays out, I think we will end up with a small lab lead."
Lab = Down 5
Con = Down 2
They really are their own worst enemy, these greens.
News from Prof Curtis
There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections.
Con +3 seats
Lab -3 seat
Also according to Prof Curtice, There has been no sign so far of turnout falling compared with previous local elections. So despite all expectations of stay at home Disgruntled voters, Tories have clearly got their vote out.
Lab = Down 8
Con = Down 2
I guess nothing yet in from London which will probably be worse for Con - but even so pretty good for Con.
Quarry Bank and Dudley Wood (Dudley) election result:
Labour HOLD.
Lab: 51.8% (+6.8)
Con: 39.7% (-1.2)
LDem: 8.5% (+6.2)
Lab -11 seats
Con +4 seats
LD +3 seats
Green +3 seats
Lab -1
Con -2
LD +3
Green +2
UKIP -1
Second year in a row with council leader ousted here.
Lab = Down 8
Con = Down 11
And of course even if Lab does well in London, there are few Con marginals in London.
Voting turnout: 27.64%
Marco Lorenzini Conservative 678 ELECTED
Kay Morrison Labour 674
Jennifer Steadman Green Party 116
William Tennison Liberal Democrats 47
https://www.harlow.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/latest-election-news
Centre-left politics is all about spending more of other people's money, and, as Brown found out, when there is none, it has nothing to say.
BBC reporter hearing from Tories in Portsmouth that it could be a bloodbath there !
In Epping Forest the only Tory loss was Theydon Bois to the LDs by a very narrow margin
Jiggle them baby, jiggle them!
I’m jiggling jiggling!
Still early days, with 20/146 councils in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUzEr5JtuFU
LD making gains in Blue wall
Lab not making any progress in Red wall
Con 8,945
Lab 7,182
Green 1,779
Harlow Alliance 461
LD 47
TUSC 46
Con 48.5%
Lab 38.9%
Green 9.6%
Harlow Alliance 2.5%
LD 0.3%
TUSC 0.2%
LD 2 gains from Lab so far.
LD need 3 gains for control.
Kit Malthouse (NW Hampshire) :
“It’s been tricky, hard. I’m preparing myself for a thumping”
Lab - Down 10
Con - Down 13
Con will surely feel they still have every chance of winning in 2024.
Lab -10
Con -8
Has everyone seen that there is a video of a naked Madison Cawthorn rubbing his bare "bits" on another man's face while groaning.
There's nothing wrong with that behaviour, as it's just two consenting adults, etc.
But I do find the way - in today's Republican Party - he's busy making possibly the least persuasive "I'm not gay, this is just a things guys do all the time" line I think I've ever heard.
Royton North (Oldham) election result:
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
Con: 47.4% (+7.6)
Lab: 40.1% (-7.7)
LDem: 5.9% (-1.7)
Grn: 3.6% (-1.2)
Oth: 3.1% (+3.1)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1522381111124537344
It's rare these days to get a second chance, but just maybe they might.
Turnout: 35.7%
Candidate Party Votes
Christopher James Cuddihee Labour Party 163 -23.6%
Glenn Robert Jordan Conservative Party 770 -26.4%
Ian Andrew Poyser Green Party 1,273 +57.7%
https://www.plymouth.gov.uk/votingandelections/elections2022/localelections2022/localelectionresults2022