Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
Which is certainly right. But what cost is this inflicting on Scotland's reputation in rUK? It sure isn't pretty from where I am sat and I fear a divided Scottish nation whatever the result.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
"Rollercoaster" and "interesting" are the words being used.
It's difficult to conceive them marketing their own poll as 'boring' so I think we can disregard 'interesting.' It would be that whatever it shows. Rollercoaster probably on balance shows No back in the lead but not massively so.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
It is something of a global story, particularly big in Canada and Spain.
Yes - Scotland is closely followed by Quebec in most conversations over here. There seems to be a general feeling that a Yes in Scotland would give a renewed impetus to the Quebec separatists. There is a GE next year, so will be interesting to see if BQ have a bounce.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
What? All the spittle-fested hysteric bigots? Strikes me as a bad advert.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
It is something of a global story, particularly big in Canada and Spain.
Yes - Scotland is closely followed by Quebec in most conversations over here. There seems to be a general feeling that a Yes in Scotland would give a renewed impetus to the Quebec separatists. There is a GE next year, so will be interesting to see if BQ have a bounce.
If we take tonites gbp/usd movement as a proxy for the poll, it's been gently rising since about 8pm:wfich would indicate a No lead. Let's see if this works...
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
What? All the spittle-fested hysteric bigots? Strikes me as a bad advert.
If I owned a hotel, I'd board it up and throw the keys into a loch. Tourisms stuffed.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
Which is certainly right. But what cost is this inflicting on Scotland's reputation in rUK? It sure isn't pretty from where I am sat and I fear a divided Scottish nation whatever the result.
VisitScotland are probably very nervous at the moment, because VisitBritain currently handles all the marketing to international inbound tourists, so VisitScotland have no facility for this. No overseas offices, marketing teams etc. Just another hidden consequence of separation.
No wonder the tories don't win seats in Scotland,every debate,they let the snp,labour,leftwing speakers ,bbc ,get away with propaganda that would frighten any voter to vote tory again.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
It is something of a global story, particularly big in Canada and Spain.
Yes - Scotland is closely followed by Quebec in most conversations over here. There seems to be a general feeling that a Yes in Scotland would give a renewed impetus to the Quebec separatists. There is a GE next year, so will be interesting to see if BQ have a bounce.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 36s EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Scots support for independence falls 6 points over economy fears; No 52%, Yes 48% http://bit.ly/sunscotpoll
It emerged more than double the amount now believe going it alone will make them personally poorer than richer, by 45% to 21%.
Five days ago, the gap was far smaller at just 37% versus 23%.
Scots women in particular are taking flight of the independence dream, our survey also reveals.
Their support for independence has plummeted 5% from Sunday’s poll from 47% to down to 42%.
Scots men still just about back independence; by 54% to 46%.
In a personal blow for SNP boss Alex Salmond, his own trust ratings down 4% since Sunday – from 42% to 38%
And ex-Premier Gordon Brown’s trust ratings up 3% – from 32% to 35%
Scots’ trust in David Cameron and Ed Miliband have also crept up marginally too, but are still very low.
I find the figures on richer/poorer quite astonishing in the context of near-dead heat polls. If the results are ultimately very close either way, will this referendum be nearly unprecedented for the number of people apparently voting against their own personally believed economic interests?
@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov #indyref "Yes" only ahead in one age group - 25 to 39 year olds. All others - inc 16 to 24 year olds - backing Scotland to remain
I am surprised Better Together have not highlighted the division, bitterness and emnity sown in Scottish society by the SNP as a result of this referendum, they have poisoned relationships within Scotland and seek to do the same between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 36s EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Scots support for independence falls 6 points over economy fears; No 52%, Yes 48% http://bit.ly/sunscotpoll
No wonder the tories don't win seats in Scotland,every debate,they let the snp,labour,leftwing speakers ,bbc ,get away with propaganda that would frighten any voter to vote tory again.
Scotland is the only place where the Tories will gain seats in 2015 though.
So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?
Not necessarily. If the first few results are all 10% more Yes or No than expected, it probably means the result will be fairly obvious.
I'm probably showing my ignorance here but I was reading that Shetland/Orkney is expected to be on of the first to declare and that would be around 1:30am. Do papers go to press after that? Are my timings all to cock?
On election night Orkney & Shetland usually take ages to declare. Funnily enough the Western Isles is often one of the first, something which always bemuses David Dimbleby.
The Long Island is almost completely connected by road causeways now. O & S certainly aren't (except around part of Scapa Flow).
If we take tonites gbp/usd movement as a proxy for the poll, it's been gently rising since about 8pm:wfich would indicate a No lead. Let's see if this works...
Fuck me, I was right!
OK, let's think. If we assume somebody, somewhere leaks a given poll and somebody, somewhere, then piles in to make an early killing, then that early killing should show up somewhere...like the exchange rate. So can we take changes in GBP/USD after 8pm as a proxy for a Scots Indy poll result at 10pm? A drop indicates a "Yes" lead, an increase indicates a "No" lead? Does this make sense, or am I reaching?
Conversely, can we just bug the ICM/YouGov offices? It shouldn't be too hard.
I am surprised Better Together have not highlighted the division, bitterness and emnity sown in Scottish society by the SNP as a result of this referendum, they have poisoned relationships within Scotland and seek to do the same between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
I entirely agree about BT's nastiness. And that devomax nonsense too.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
It is something of a global story, particularly big in Canada and Spain.
Yes - Scotland is closely followed by Quebec in most conversations over here. There seems to be a general feeling that a Yes in Scotland would give a renewed impetus to the Quebec separatists. There is a GE next year, so will be interesting to see if BQ have a bounce.
You mean PQ...or the DIY outfit?
BQ = Bloc Québécois
The BQ is the federal wing of the sovereigntist movement and cannot do much damamge in Ottawa. The provincial wing, the PQ fell from power in april, partly after raising the prospect of another referendum.
I thought 48/52 was par for Betfair to remain unchanged.
Did you see how much Betfair moved when Survation put out a poll that showed no change? YouGov put out a poll which shows Yes falling and the sky is the limit for where it ends out.
You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
"... anything up to £70billion"
Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.
"If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"
There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.
"Just a few cities"
The biggest cities in England.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least when the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The HS2 costs were upped to 50 billion to include a political contingency and the real cost at 2012 date is likely to be half of that 70 billion. Only if political loonies ensure its built in 200 miles of tunnel would it cost £70 billion.
14 billion is a ridiculous contingency as part of 43 billion total. It is amazing how easy it is for someone to blather 70 billion when the actual baseline is 28.2 billion !!
Well when you are an official spokesman who has been involved in the production of the figures I'll take you seriously but until then I'll treat you as the generally ill-tempered excessively animated disingenuous Tory mouthpiece that you are.......
I am surprised Better Together have not highlighted the division, bitterness and emnity sown in Scottish society by the SNP as a result of this referendum, they have poisoned relationships within Scotland and seek to do the same between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
For the first time today I overheard our accounts dept chattering about Scotland in the light of all the Indyref goings on. Suffice it to say Scotland is being damaged whatever. And this in deepest Gwent.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
Even on that basis I still come out ahead because I saved the taxi fares (there would have been six taxi trips in all). In pure cash costs (given that the insurance is paid whether I use the car or not and 500 miles is neither here nor there in terms of depreciation) the day cost me a tank of petrol plus a bit, say £60.
When I was working and, so charging my travel to someone else, I would never have dreamed of driving to Leeds. First class rail would have been the only option (return £391 per person). What are the fares going to be on this wonderful new railway and who is going to pay them. I very much fear that we will be spending tens of billions of taxpayers money to get a small number of businessmen to London a bit quicker.
If we don't build new railways the whole system will bung up.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
What? All the spittle-fested hysteric bigots? Strikes me as a bad advert.
If I owned a hotel, I'd board it up and throw the keys into a loch. Tourisms stuffed.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
What? All the spittle-fested hysteric bigots? Strikes me as a bad advert.
If I owned a hotel, I'd board it up and throw the keys into a loch. Tourisms stuffed.
Whats a bit worrying is that only now when its almost too late are the businesses and supermarkets coming out with the truth - that their costs and prices will rise on independence. I think its worrying because they are reluctant to go public because of physical mand political mbacklash.
Meantime ... The treasury try to look after out (our!) financial stability and Salmond screams blue murder.
All very encouraging. Just completed a very satisfactory evening canvass in Moray. Truth be told, always going to be a good No area but it always nice to have people practically falling on you with gratitude for knocking on their door. The Yessers have the posters. We have the voters.
You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
"... anything up to £70billion"
Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.
"If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"
There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.
"Just a few cities"
The biggest cities in England.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least when the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The HS2 costs were upped to 50 billion to include a political contingency and the real cost at 2012 date is likely to be half of that 70 billion. Only if political loonies ensure its built in 200 miles of tunnel would it cost £70 billion.
14 billion is a ridiculous contingency as part of 43 billion total. It is amazing how easy it is for someone to blather 70 billion when the actual baseline is 28.2 billion !!
Well when you are an official spokesman who has been involved in the production of the figures I'll take you seriously but until then I'll treat you as the generally ill-tempered excessively animated disingenuous Tory mouthpiece that you are.......
You know nothing of me - just invention like the 70 billion figure. Read the facts
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?
My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
...
You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
"... anything up to £70billion"
Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.
"If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"
There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.
"Just a few cities"
The biggest cities in England.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least when the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The HS2 costs were upped to 50 billion to include a political contingency and the real cost at 2012 date is likely to be half of that 70 billion. Only if political loonies ensure its built in 200 miles of tunnel would it cost £70 billion.
14 billion is a ridiculous contingency as part of 43 billion total. It is amazing how easy it is for someone to blather 70 billion when the actual baseline is 28.2 billion !!
51% contingency compares quite well with the 2012 Olympics budget, which IIRC had 3 levels of contingencies totalling 64% of the actual estimated costs.
Comments
MUST WATCH: Ultimate smackdown of BBC's @bbcnickrobinson by @AlexSalmond over #RBS price sensitive info. Amazing. http://youtu.be/rHmLb-RIbrM
Rollercoaster probably on balance shows No back in the lead but not massively so.
I have the figures, No ahead
It gave a four point lead to No, putting Scotland on course to reject independence by 52% to Yes 48% in the referendum in just six days' time.
Bruch's Scottish Fanatasia rearranged Alex Salmond.
It emerged more than double the amount now believe going it alone will make them personally poorer than richer, by 45% to 21%.
Five days ago, the gap was far smaller at just 37% versus 23%.
Scots women in particular are taking flight of the independence dream, our survey also reveals.
Their support for independence has plummeted 5% from Sunday’s poll from 47% to down to 42%.
Scots men still just about back independence; by 54% to 46%.
In a personal blow for SNP boss Alex Salmond, his own trust ratings down 4% since Sunday – from 42% to 38%
And ex-Premier Gordon Brown’s trust ratings up 3% – from 32% to 35%
Scots’ trust in David Cameron and Ed Miliband have also crept up marginally too, but are still very low.
I thought 48/52 was par for Betfair to remain unchanged.
EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Scots support for independence falls 6 points over economy fears; No 52%, Yes 48% http://bit.ly/sunscotpoll
Pardonnez moi, Sandy!
Genius Eck
How good am I
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes · 1m
YouGov #indyref "Yes" only ahead in one age group - 25 to 39 year olds. All others - inc 16 to 24 year olds - backing Scotland to remain
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes · 1m
Salmond's women challenge: 42% of women are "Yes", down 5% since w/end. 49% think they would be worse off, up 10% since weekend
Ed is crap is PM inTonights YG
But for those who like Downfall stuff, here's one from 2012.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaHd3YJBhIE
...Opposition to independence strongest among young and old Scots. Over 60s: No 64%, Yes 36% http://bit.ly/sunscotpoll
OK, let's think. If we assume somebody, somewhere leaks a given poll and somebody, somewhere, then piles in to make an early killing, then that early killing should show up somewhere...like the exchange rate. So can we take changes in GBP/USD after 8pm as a proxy for a Scots Indy poll result at 10pm? A drop indicates a "Yes" lead, an increase indicates a "No" lead? Does this make sense, or am I reaching?
Conversely, can we just bug the ICM/YouGov offices? It shouldn't be too hard.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down two to four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%
Only seen them once back in the 80s - are they still making records?
Meantime ... The treasury try to look after out (our!) financial stability and Salmond screams blue murder.
The locals are calling it 'Snowtember'.
Read the facts
It's on BBC news
NO - 52% (+3)
NO - 52% (+3)