Don't exit polls (especially in a "simple" election like a yes/no referendum) play an important role in detecting the possibility of electoral fraud in the ballot/counting process? Complicated of course by postal votes, but possibly the principle stands none the less.
@jessbrammar: "ppl frightened to speak,frightened to put posters up,I don't think ppl want to live in a country like that" - Darling on #newsnight tonight
Rein in the Brownshirts Alex, they are not helping your cause.
(FPT) Just been talking with a close relative who, although not a Scottish resident, has a daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren who are. Although sympathetic to SNP ... son-in-law is usually an SNP voter......., they can't stand Salmond. And don't believe him, either.
So will, apparently vote NO.
Somewhat to my surprise from what they have said earlier!
So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?
Not necessarily. If the first few results are all 10% more Yes or No than expected, it probably means the result will be fairly obvious.
BP, John Lewis, B&Q owner Kingfisher, Asda, Next, Lloyds TSB, RBS, Standard Life and the Weir Group have all issued statements outlining to the Scots what the fallout will be should they choose independence next week. Banking headquarters will move, clothing and food prices could rise.
“Every PR and public affairs director is telling chief executives not to do it, but this is important, this is a personal leadership question,” said one chief executive who warned on the risks of independence this week. “To not speak out is an abrogation of responsibility.”
Another senior executive who has also aired his views on next week’s referendum said he has resisted until now because of the “aggression of the Yes campaign”. He decided this week that the Scots needed a better understanding of the risks that come with a Yes vote.
Don't exit polls (especially in a "simple" election like a yes/no referendum) play an important role in detecting the possibility of electoral fraud in the ballot/counting process? Complicated of course by postal votes, but possibly the principle stands none the less.
That hadn't occurred to me before, but it's a good point.
@jessbrammar: "ppl frightened to speak,frightened to put posters up,I don't think ppl want to live in a country like that" - Darling on #newsnight tonight
Rein in the Brownshirts Alex, they are not helping your cause.
I don't think he can any more. He could avoid having them cheerlead when he's having a press conference though.
BTW how do they KNOW that 97% of all eligible voters have registered? How do the authorities know who is eligible until they have registered. Or is the "97%" just the number of people registered divided by the estimated Scottish population (based on census data etc).
Could this figure in fact just indicate that population estimates in Scotland are too low?
@jessbrammar: "ppl frightened to speak,frightened to put posters up,I don't think ppl want to live in a country like that" - Darling on #newsnight tonight
Rein in the Brownshirts Alex, they are not helping your cause.
That is the right approach from a social point of view. Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
BTW how do they KNOW that 97% of all eligible voters have registered? How do the authorities know who is eligible until they have registered. Or is the "97%" just the number of people registered divided by the estimated Scottish population (based on census data etc).
Could this figure in fact just indicate that population estimates in Scotland are too low?
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.
In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.
Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.
Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
All in favour of nice railways, but who can afford to travel on them? I had to go to Leeds a week or so back, even booking in advance and on fixed trains, so no flexibility, the cheapest I could get was £72 return, as there would be two of us that made it £144 plus taxi journeys. I drove, the journey took about the same length of time (even with the M25 being its usual bastard self) and was more tiring, but a lot cheaper.
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?
Not necessarily. If the first few results are all 10% more Yes or No than expected, it probably means the result will be fairly obvious.
I'm probably showing my ignorance here but I was reading that Shetland/Orkney is expected to be on of the first to declare and that would be around 1:30am. Do papers go to press after that? Are my timings all to cock?
That is the right approach from a social point of view. Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
@journodave: Screaming the N word and calling people traitors on the streets of Glasgow, is this what our #indyref has become? http://t.co/UULuGMobKj
@jessbrammar: "ppl frightened to speak,frightened to put posters up,I don't think ppl want to live in a country like that" - Darling on #newsnight tonight
Rein in the Brownshirts Alex, they are not helping your cause.
That is the right approach from a social point of view. Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
The damage has been done - whatever the result, the fall-out from the increasingly bitter campaign will take some time to work itself out. We're not quite at the different coloured kerbstones stage but whoever the winner is had better be super-generous and all-embracing if serious long-term societal damage is to be avoided.
BTW how do they KNOW that 97% of all eligible voters have registered? How do the authorities know who is eligible until they have registered. Or is the "97%" just the number of people registered divided by the estimated Scottish population (based on census data etc).
Could this figure in fact just indicate that population estimates in Scotland are too low?
Yup
Perhaps the Scottish Parliament should draw on this in a bid for increased funding!
Of course it could just be a temporary boost based on hundreds of thousands of emigrant Scots finding a reason to return home long enough to register/vote in the referendum (ie. to parents/relatives etc). An interesting dynamic if they are largely biased towards one camp. (and possibly wouldn't be picked up in polling).
So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?
Not necessarily. If the first few results are all 10% more Yes or No than expected, it probably means the result will be fairly obvious.
I'm probably showing my ignorance here but I was reading that Shetland/Orkney is expected to be on of the first to declare and that would be around 1:30am. Do papers go to press after that? Are my timings all to cock?
On election night Orkney & Shetland usually take ages to declare. Funnily enough the Western Isles is often one of the first, something which always bemuses David Dimbleby.
Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!
@tnewtondunn 1m It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.
I read it as meaning that Yes has plummeted as dramatically as it has rocketed but a week is still a long time in politics.
I am now a pathetic heap of gin-deprived nerves, but I read it as: the week began well for YES, but then swang back to NO (Survation, all the bank stuff) so this means it's swung AGAIN towards YES. A rollercoaster.
But I really DO need that bloody gin.
Well, as someone who has given us good wine tips on the past, what is your gin recommendation? I have been enjoying Sipsmith and Fever Tree, and Tom Collins made with Haymans Old Tom. Recently bought a bottle of Martin Miller's, first impression is that it is more elegant and smooth tasting than Sipsmith whicji has a lot of in-your-face fruity Juniper.
Call me a europhile; but I am rather fond of oude Genever. Not when working the next day though!
That is the right approach from a social point of view. Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
@journodave: Screaming the N word and calling people traitors on the streets of Glasgow, is this what our #indyref has become? http://t.co/UULuGMobKj
Yes it has.
Its all about Salmond trying to become supreme ruler of scotland, he will stop at nothing to achieve it. A vote for YES is a vote for a reign of terror over scotland, where the people will be suppressed by the SNP totalitarian regime.
Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!
@tnewtondunn 1m It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.
I read it as meaning that Yes has plummeted as dramatically as it has rocketed but a week is still a long time in politics.
I am now a pathetic heap of gin-deprived nerves, but I read it as: the week began well for YES, but then swang back to NO (Survation, all the bank stuff) so this means it's swung AGAIN towards YES. A rollercoaster.
But I really DO need that bloody gin.
Well, as someone who has given us good wine tips on the past, what is your gin recommendation? I have been enjoying Sipsmith and Fever Tree, and Tom Collins made with Haymans Old Tom. Recently bought a bottle of Martin Miller's, first impression is that it is more elegant and smooth tasting than Sipsmith whicji has a lot of in-your-face fruity Juniper.
Call me a europhile; but I am rather fond of oude Genever. Not when working the next day though!
Plymouth Gin is worth a try likewise the Naval Strength. Won a bottle of Hayman's Gin recently, was impressed with it.
BP, John Lewis, B&Q owner Kingfisher, Asda, Next, Lloyds TSB, RBS, Standard Life and the Weir Group have all issued statements outlining to the Scots what the fallout will be should they choose independence next week. Banking headquarters will move, clothing and food prices could rise.
“Every PR and public affairs director is telling chief executives not to do it, but this is important, this is a personal leadership question,” said one chief executive who warned on the risks of independence this week. “To not speak out is an abrogation of responsibility.”
Another senior executive who has also aired his views on next week’s referendum said he has resisted until now because of the “aggression of the Yes campaign”. He decided this week that the Scots needed a better understanding of the risks that come with a Yes vote.
But, of course it won't matter how much anything costs, according to the Dear Leader we will be awash with money and everyone is scaremongering! People are actually believing his spiel and it's scary.
"There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections."
Shame on them ..... bloody penny-pinchers!
I'm sure somebody will do one. The publicity alone would make it worth the outlay.
Meanwhile, I have an image of Alex Salmond in Bute House, staring at his mobile. Waiting for the booty call from Uncle Rupert.
Nope, it costs a lot of money, and takes a lot of planning, which can't be done in the last week.
But do you know Sky aren't doing one? It seems an obvious move, as it would strengthen their claim to equality with the BBC - hey look, we did what the so-called national broadcaster didn't do.
And if they had an exit poll they would then grab all the indyref viewers from the off. "Tune in for our exit poll, coming soon".
Millions would switch, and wait.
Their advertisers would love it. I'd be quite surprised if Sky News - who do not lack money - haven't thought about it.
It may not just be the broadcasters; the polling companies themselves put their reputations on the line when they do an exit poll. Perhaps they declined a late offer because they didn't have sufficient time to develop a robust methodology for a one-off, close vote. Nothing would undermine them more than calling it one way, only for the vote to then go the other - even if the actual gap were a handful of percentage points. It wasn't just the pre-election polls that were wrong in 1992; the exit poll also predicted a hung parliament.
The pollsters have little track record to work off to ensure a representative sample. Indeed, this is one reason I'm not that convinced by the current polls - I do wonder to what extent the narrowing of the range of the published polls has to do with the sort of methodological clustering we saw in 1992. It may be that they are all correct (near enough), but there is safety in numbers even if they're not, whereas to be out on a limb is an exposed and potentially uncomfortable position when no-one can be too sure in advance. Publishing an exit poll just produces the same problem in spades.
Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!
@tnewtondunn 1m It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.
I read it as meaning that Yes has plummeted as dramatically as it has rocketed but a week is still a long time in politics.
I am now a pathetic heap of gin-deprived nerves, but I read it as: the week began well for YES, but then swang back to NO (Survation, all the bank stuff) so this means it's swung AGAIN towards YES. A rollercoaster.
But I really DO need that bloody gin.
Well, as someone who has given us good wine tips on the past, what is your gin recommendation? I have been enjoying Sipsmith and Fever Tree, and Tom Collins made with Haymans Old Tom. Recently bought a bottle of Martin Miller's, first impression is that it is more elegant and smooth tasting than Sipsmith whicji has a lot of in-your-face fruity Juniper.
Call me a europhile; but I am rather fond of oude Genever. Not when working the next day though!
Plymouth Gin is worth a try likewise the Naval Strength. Won a bottle of Hayman's Gin recently, was impressed with it.
Malawi gin is also very good, I always bring back a bottle when I visit.
So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?
A leading Scottish firm with offices north and south of the border has shifted its cash out of Scottish banks for fear that a vote in favour of independence could lead to a run on them.
Don't exit polls (especially in a "simple" election like a yes/no referendum) play an important role in detecting the possibility of electoral fraud in the ballot/counting process? Complicated of course by postal votes, but possibly the principle stands none the less.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.
In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.
Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.
Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
All in favour of nice railways, but who can afford to travel on them? I had to go to Leeds a week or so back, even booking in advance and on fixed trains, so no flexibility, the cheapest I could get was £72 return, as there would be two of us that made it £144 plus taxi journeys. I drove, the journey took about the same length of time (even with the M25 being its usual bastard self) and was more tiring, but a lot cheaper.
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
The woman with the toddler who wants the boom mike. Claims to be undecided, yet certain to vote, and when asked why more women back 'No', says because they research more and they're smarter. So a clear no, but doesn't feel she can acknowledge it to a camera. I believe there are a lot like her.
Y'know how everyone's all (with regards to #indyref) - I just want to know the facts, I just want to know the facts.
Isn't that a bit like speaking to a prospective girlfriend and saying "I want to go out with you - But I just want to know the facts - I just want to know the facts"
Don't exit polls (especially in a "simple" election like a yes/no referendum) play an important role in detecting the possibility of electoral fraud in the ballot/counting process? Complicated of course by postal votes, but possibly the principle stands none the less.
Some votes must have been cast by 15 year olds, because I assume if you turn 16 on September 18th you can still vote in advance by post if you so choose.
@Peston: Justin King also warns of poss damage to Scotland's food industry once shoppers in rest of UK no longer see its produce as from same country
I proposed banning Scottish delicacies from the house, but the good lady did not approve and quickly convinced me otherwise. - Walkers shortbread stayed on the shopping list...
Y'know how everyone's all (with regards to #indyref) - I just want to know the facts, I just want to know the facts.
Isn't that a bit like speaking to a prospective girlfriend and saying "I want to go out with you - But I just want to know the facts - I just want to know the facts"
If the poll is to be believed could we be looking at the start of the campaign for the partitioning of Scotland with British separatists in the border counties demanding to remain with the Union (after all why should an independent Scotland retain its UK regional border?). That would then leave Kim Jong Eck master of 'North Scotland'?
Nay, Nay, and a thousand times Nay. As every true Scot knows, it's "Sal Mond Eck"
Labour MPs confronted by the working class voters they have been ignoring for all these years.
It looks a bit like Rourke's Drift....
" Without further ado, the yell-off commenced. "NO! NO! NO!" "YES! YES! YES!" "NO! NO! NO!" "TRAITORRRRRS!"
Frantically the Yes man started pointing at a tiny scratch on his arm. "Look at this!" he screamed, eyes bulging. "This is the truth of the No campaign! VIOLENCE!" Brilliantly, he had an English accent.
Chant, chant, chant, chant. The noise was relentless. This was a shopping precinct on a Thursday lunchtime, but it might as well have been Saturday afternoon at Ibrox or Parkhead. "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!" "SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!" "SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "
Labour MPs confronted by the working class voters they have been ignoring for all these years.
It looks a bit like Rourke's Drift....
" Without further ado, the yell-off commenced. "NO! NO! NO!" "YES! YES! YES!" "NO! NO! NO!" "TRAITORRRRRS!"
Frantically the Yes man started pointing at a tiny scratch on his arm. "Look at this!" he screamed, eyes bulging. "This is the truth of the No campaign! VIOLENCE!" Brilliantly, he had an English accent.
Chant, chant, chant, chant. The noise was relentless. This was a shopping precinct on a Thursday lunchtime, but it might as well have been Saturday afternoon at Ibrox or Parkhead. "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!" "SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!" "SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "
Y'know how everyone's all (with regards to #indyref) - I just want to know the facts, I just want to know the facts.
Isn't that a bit like speaking to a prospective girlfriend and saying "I want to go out with you - But I just want to know the facts - I just want to know the facts"
No - it's like divorcing your wife/husband.
"I would divorce you - but I just want to know the facts - I just want to know the facts" ??
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.
In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.
Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.
Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
All in favour of nice railways, but who can afford to travel on them? I had to go to Leeds a week or so back, even booking in advance and on fixed trains, so no flexibility, the cheapest I could get was £72 return, as there would be two of us that made it £144 plus taxi journeys. I drove, the journey took about the same length of time (even with the M25 being its usual bastard self) and was more tiring, but a lot cheaper.
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
If that is the best argument you can put forward in defense of HS2 then no wonder the public are skeptical.
Maybe somewhere like Jim Murphy's East Renfrewshire will be first to declare. Wealthy area and likely to vote No by a fairly clear margin. Relatively small population.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
Even on that basis I still come out ahead because I saved the taxi fares (there would have been six taxi trips in all). In pure cash costs (given that the insurance is paid whether I use the car or not and 500 miles is neither here nor there in terms of depreciation) the day cost me a tank of petrol plus a bit, say £60.
When I was working and, so charging my travel to someone else, I would never have dreamed of driving to Leeds. First class rail would have been the only option (return £391 per person). What are the fares going to be on this wonderful new railway and who is going to pay them. I very much fear that we will be spending tens of billions of taxpayers money to get a small number of businessmen to London a bit quicker.
That is the right approach from a social point of view. Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
@journodave: Screaming the N word and calling people traitors on the streets of Glasgow, is this what our #indyref has become? http://t.co/UULuGMobKj
Yes it has.
Its all about Salmond trying to become supreme ruler of scotland, he will stop at nothing to achieve it. A vote for YES is a vote for a reign of terror over scotland, where the people will be suppressed by the SNP totalitarian regime.
Never, do our police carry guns when on normal duties? Er! Yes, 284 just now, of them anyway. Funnily enough without it being discussed at local, regional or Holyrood level.
Are some in the SNP so virulently Anti-English that they would put the zylon-b into the showers to eliminate the "problem" ? Er! Yes, and do it for free.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.
In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.
Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.
Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
All in favour of nice railways, but who can afford to travel on them? I had to go to Leeds a week or so back, even booking in advance and on fixed trains, so no flexibility, the cheapest I could get was £72 return, as there would be two of us that made it £144 plus taxi journeys. I drove, the journey took about the same length of time (even with the M25 being its usual bastard self) and was more tiring, but a lot cheaper.
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
If that is the best argument you can put forward in defense of HS2 then no wonder the public are skeptical.
It's not an argument for HS2; it was a reply to Mr Llama about why I'm surprised that the journey he mentioned was a lot cheaper. Although I might have his starting location wrong.
I'm up to defend HS2 if you come up with half-intelligent arguments against; I've done it before, even against things like the IEA's hilariously poor £80bn cost claim. Although others on here may scream: "NO!"
Definitely a peak blazer win - but as it's utilising 16 y/o's, we shall, certainly given the current climate, do as you would expect of people of our fine upstandingness and not shout about it.
Scots won't get independence from a yes vote. Simple, plain, and devastatingly true.
'A Scotland outside the UK, but in the EU, can no more have its own trade, agriculture, fisheries, immigration, environment or justice policies than any other EU member.'
I don't really set much store by big businesses (though them leaving will bring pain), if Scotland was truly on the path to becoming an independent, low tax, small state, politically neutral, outward looking, staunchly democratic country. Because I don't believe you can really keep hard working well educated determined people down when taxation is light -the market would buoy them up again. However that isn't Scotland now, and that certainly isn't where the EU is going.
Scots won't get independence from a yes vote. Simple, plain, and devastatingly true.
'A Scotland outside the UK, but in the EU, can no more have its own trade, agriculture, fisheries, immigration, environment or justice policies than any other EU member.'
I don't really set much store by big businesses (though them leaving will bring pain), if Scotland was truly on the path to becoming an independent, low tax, small state, politically neutral, outward looking, staunchly democratic country. Because I don't believe you can really keep hard working well educated determined people down when taxation is light -the market would buoy them up again. However that isn't Scotland now, and that certainly isn't where the EU is going.
Sorry to quote myself, but check out the 'I'm voting No' Scottish Labour woman on the left hand side -she's holding a 'Yes' poster behind the 'No' one so it looks like she's a yes to the people behind her! hahahaha
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
@OliverCooper: Ah, glad to see the Yes campaign's sums are based on such established accounting terms as 'Lots' and 'Lots and lots and lots'. #BigBigDebate
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Yeah - I imagine the referendum has done great things for the global awareness of Scotland. You can't buy publicity like this. If I was visitscotland, or the whisky industry association etc, I'd be trying to milk it for all its worth.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.
In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.
Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.
Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
All in favour of nice railways, but who can afford to travel on them? I had to go to Leeds a week or so back, even booking in advance and on fixed trains, so no flexibility, the cheapest I could get was £72 return, as there would be two of us that made it £144 plus taxi journeys. I drove, the journey took about the same length of time (even with the M25 being its usual bastard self) and was more tiring, but a lot cheaper.
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
I'm not sure where you live, Mr Llama, but according to the AA, a single-way car journey from Brighton to Leeds costs £77 at 30p per mile (fuel, insurance, depreciation etc). This means a return journey would be roughly the same as the train for two people.
If that is the best argument you can put forward in defense of HS2 then no wonder the public are skeptical.
...
I'm up to defend HS2 if you come up with half-intelligent arguments against; I've done it before ...
And you did it jolly well, and very entertainingly too, Mr. Jessop.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?
My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
...
You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
"... anything up to £70billion"
Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.
"If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"
There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.
"Just a few cities"
The biggest cities in England.
IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?
There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.
So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least when the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
The HS2 costs were upped to 50 billion to include a political contingency and the real cost at 2012 date is likely to be half of that 70 billion. Only if political loonies ensure its built in 200 miles of tunnel would it cost £70 billion.
14 billion is a ridiculous contingency as part of 43 billion total. It is amazing how easy it is for someone to blather 70 billion when the actual baseline is 28.2 billion !!
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Strangely little interest here in the East Midlands. The only patient to speak of it was a longstanding Scottish patient of mine. She thought her 87 year old auntie would have a stroke if Yes won.
I suppose peaceful seperations are rather rare in the world, so may be a bit of novelty value in Nigeria.
Anecdote time - the Scottish referendum is truly a global phenomenon. Taxi driver from Nigeria yesterday - when we said we were from England, his first question was about the referendum. Next minute, David Cameron was on the radio pleading for a No.
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
It is something of a global story, particularly big in Canada and Spain.
Comments
Rein in the Brownshirts Alex, they are not helping your cause.
Just been talking with a close relative who, although not a Scottish resident, has a daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren who are.
Although sympathetic to SNP ... son-in-law is usually an SNP voter......., they can't stand Salmond. And don't believe him, either.
So will, apparently vote NO.
Somewhat to my surprise from what they have said earlier!
And no, they're not in the Borders!
Could this figure in fact just indicate that population estimates in Scotland are too low?
Does the scottish public want to live in a totalitarian SNP state? (and there is plenty of evidence that it will be a totalitarian state)
I am sure HS2 will be wonderful, for the few people who can afford it.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/11/indyref-betting-markets-swing-strongly-back-for-no/
It's 1988 BBC Personality of the Year, Giles Watling:
https://mobile.twitter.com/g15ssy
Neither is oil any guarantee of prosperity - as Venezuela shows.
Everyone is scaremongering and it really will be the land of milk and honey as promised by the SNP.
oh, and Salmond takes a bunch of cheerleaders to his press conferences and the BBC is out to get him.
Missed anything?
Of course it could just be a temporary boost based on hundreds of thousands of emigrant Scots finding a reason to return home long enough to register/vote in the referendum (ie. to parents/relatives etc). An interesting dynamic if they are largely biased towards one camp. (and possibly wouldn't be picked up in polling).
Its all about Salmond trying to become supreme ruler of scotland, he will stop at nothing to achieve it.
A vote for YES is a vote for a reign of terror over scotland, where the people will be suppressed by the SNP totalitarian regime.
http://andrewduff.blogactiv.eu/2014/09/10/jean-claude-gsoh/?utm_source=EurActiv+Newsletter&utm_campaign=e4406ddd47-Bmail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bab5f0ea4e-e4406ddd47-245514803
http://tinyurl.com/mpnp3dr
But, of course it won't matter how much anything costs, according to the Dear Leader we will be awash with money and everyone is scaremongering! People are actually believing his spiel and it's scary.
The pollsters have little track record to work off to ensure a representative sample. Indeed, this is one reason I'm not that convinced by the current polls - I do wonder to what extent the narrowing of the range of the published polls has to do with the sort of methodological clustering we saw in 1992. It may be that they are all correct (near enough), but there is safety in numbers even if they're not, whereas to be out on a limb is an exposed and potentially uncomfortable position when no-one can be too sure in advance. Publishing an exit poll just produces the same problem in spades.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQPEMf3j6AY
what hope is there for humanity?
A leading Scottish firm with offices north and south of the border has shifted its cash out of Scottish banks for fear that a vote in favour of independence could lead to a run on them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11090937/Word-on-the-street-are-women-more-likely-to-vote-No-on-Scottish-independence.html
The woman with the toddler who wants the boom mike. Claims to be undecided, yet certain to vote, and when asked why more women back 'No', says because they research more and they're smarter. So a clear no, but doesn't feel she can acknowledge it to a camera. I believe there are a lot like her.
I'm away to watch the 16 y/o debate.
But I was just thinking-
Y'know how everyone's all (with regards to #indyref) - I just want to know the facts, I just want to know the facts.
Isn't that a bit like speaking to a prospective girlfriend and saying "I want to go out with you - But I just want to know the facts - I just want to know the facts"
Labour MPs confronted by the working class voters they have been ignoring for all these years.
It looks a bit like Rourke's Drift....
Silly Yessnp.
Scot tory leader - Lesbo - good idea? - really?
"TRAITORRRRRS!"
Frantically the Yes man started pointing at a tiny scratch on his arm. "Look at this!" he screamed, eyes bulging. "This is the truth of the No campaign! VIOLENCE!" Brilliantly, he had an English accent.
Chant, chant, chant, chant. The noise was relentless. This was a shopping precinct on a Thursday lunchtime, but it might as well have been Saturday afternoon at Ibrox or Parkhead. "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!"
"SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "SCOTLAND SAYS NO!" "SCOTLAND SAYS YES!" "
What are the odds for a civil war in scotland?
Nah- My metaphor's better.
When I was working and, so charging my travel to someone else, I would never have dreamed of driving to Leeds. First class rail would have been the only option (return £391 per person). What are the fares going to be on this wonderful new railway and who is going to pay them. I very much fear that we will be spending tens of billions of taxpayers money to get a small number of businessmen to London a bit quicker.
Are some in the SNP so virulently Anti-English that they would put the zylon-b into the showers to eliminate the "problem" ? Er! Yes, and do it for free.
Obama White House Refuses to Define Victory Over ISIS, Makes a Joke Out of It All http://bit.ly/1xPEOQF #tcot
The Mysteries of Obamas Foreign policy. Or has he really got one?
I'm up to defend HS2 if you come up with half-intelligent arguments against; I've done it before, even against things like the IEA's hilariously poor £80bn cost claim. Although others on here may scream: "NO!"
;-)
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/ap-reporter-grills-earnest-how-can-obama-justify-isis-action-with-law-he-wanted-repealed/
(Which would generate masses of guff, hand-wringing or celebration but which would be entirely within MoE.)
Scots won't get independence from a yes vote. Simple, plain, and devastatingly true.
'A Scotland outside the UK, but in the EU, can no more have its own trade, agriculture, fisheries, immigration, environment or justice policies than any other EU member.'
I don't really set much store by big businesses (though them leaving will bring pain), if Scotland was truly on the path to becoming an independent, low tax, small state, politically neutral, outward looking, staunchly democratic country. Because I don't believe you can really keep hard working well educated determined people down when taxation is light -the market would buoy them up again. However that isn't Scotland now, and that certainly isn't where the EU is going.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11090807/Scottish-independence-now-Nessie-defects.html
@FT: Just published: front page of the Financial Times UK edition Fri Sep 12 http://t.co/mwoIbcgTma
(For the avoidance of doubt - I'm still in Canada - not Nigeria!)
YG: Y54, N46???
Silly Yessnp.
Cue they'll rue the day from the Gnats.
http://www.hs2.org.uk/about-hs2/facts-figures/route-trains-cost
''The total for the route is therefore £42.6 billion, including £14.4 billion of contingency.''
14 billion is a ridiculous contingency as part of 43 billion total. It is amazing how easy it is for someone to blather 70 billion when the actual baseline is 28.2 billion !!
The answer is a categorical NO. He wouldn't know the truth if it slapped him in the face. Duplicitousness all the way thro the interview.
I suppose peaceful seperations are rather rare in the world, so may be a bit of novelty value in Nigeria.