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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland are finds NO 67% to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland are finds NO 67% to YES 33%

New ComRes IndyRef poll for @ITVBorder of South of Scotland finds NO 67% YES 33%

Read the full story here


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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    First?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Border Scots. Quel peuple magnifique!
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Have they polled this before? Change on last?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    F1: nice video of Coulthard and Vettel around the Sochi track:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29094820

    I'll be checking the odds on a safety car. Narrow, high speed, not much run off, and the track seems a bit slippery (not uncommon with new surfaces).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pretty much fits in with my prediction by area.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0

    (I need to increase the electorate slightly to fit in with today's announcement that 4.3 million are registered to vote).
  • Options
    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Jackie Bird was pretty grumpy at the 1830 yesterday wasn't she??

    I can't believe sky sent poor Faisal to Edinburgh though - all the Azn's are in weegie land aren't they???

    Please ignore me - I'm just waiting for my 1900 RT Programme.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ...obviously not real Scots..traitorous scum
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cameron should annexe the Borders Putin style to protect these people.

    Add on Shetland and Morningside and that leaves Eck with the Castlemilk to Dundee corridor ;)
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    lharris999lharris999 Posts: 1
    South of Scotland - is that the new word for England?
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    Au contraire - the settled will of the Borders is to stay in the Uk. Indy Scotland just got smaller.
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    There may be other candidates for the crown but I admit I can't think of one off the top of my head.
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    BoabBoab Posts: 13
    It's not even the South of Scotland, it's the tiny proportion (around 5%) of Scotland that get ITV Border.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    Numerous.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Quite. It's a bit like just polling malcolmg.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Extrapolating from 1997 suggests a clear 'NO' nationally...
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    Ishmael_X said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Quite. It's a bit like just polling malcolmg.

    Lol. I can imagine how twitter rumours of such a poll might shift the markets.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,318
    When is the last day that polls will be allowed?
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    Numerous.

    Such as?
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    TGOHF said:

    Cameron should annexe the Borders Putin style to protect these people.

    Add on Shetland and Morningside and that leaves Eck with the Castlemilk to Dundee corridor ;)

    That would make completing the Donalds considerably easier.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    We're getting a fresh Scottish thread at 1830.

    If only Team OGH could always be so kind to us poor PB Scots residing in Scotland.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    Numerous.

    Such as?
    Read the header.

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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    Boab said:

    It's not even the South of Scotland, it's the tiny proportion (around 5%) of Scotland that get ITV Border.

    The voodoo poll of Scottish mothers run by Mumsnet was the hot contender for the crown of worst Scottish poll, but this one has stolen the wooden spoon from its mouth.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]

    Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    Numerous.

    Such as?
    Read the header.

    The header that merely states the poll numbers?
    Tomorrow: a YouGov poll of Richard Navabi's back garden sees Tories in lead.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Twitter is afire with allegations that Galloway compared either Yes voters or the SNP to Nazi's. Galloway strongly and categorically denies. Unfortunately no live feed of the debate, just the edited version the BBC will put out tonight.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.

    As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Miss C, not a Scot, but I think it'd take multiple polls showing a massive No lead for any relaxation to possibly occur. I think both sides will turn out in force. Should make polling beforehand quite tricky given perhaps a quarter of those voting won't have bothered even at the last General Election.
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    BoabBoab Posts: 13
    Beverley_C said:

    Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.

    As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.

    They have ran this poll twice previously....

    They had it....

    71/31
    70/30


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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    JBriskin said:

    [There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]

    Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.

    Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Nobody lives in the Borders, Bev. Best to embrace OGH's trolling - and maximise your heel post count.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    saddened said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.
    Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.

    A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax,
    Not really. As we can now see, Devomax would be wholly unacceptable to the other countries in the Union. It's in the bin.

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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    "Au contraire - the settled will of the Borders is to stay in the Uk. Indy Scotland just got smaller. "

    This confirms my view, TGOFH, that in the event of a Yes vote, we can use the Putin Gambit and go rescue our Unionist brethren in The Borders. No?
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    @Bev

    Some people are so bad at maths that your last point may actually have something in it.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss C, not a Scot, but I think it'd take multiple polls showing a massive No lead for any relaxation to possibly occur. I think both sides will turn out in force. Should make polling beforehand quite tricky given perhaps a quarter of those voting won't have bothered even at the last General Election.

    I will not argue the point MD, I will just point out that in any series of things there has to be a first one.

    ;-)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    saddened said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]

    Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.

    Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?
    I think we're talking slightly at cross purposes - I'm saying the issues are already there. If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    Oooh, ICM. Gold standard for referenda.. Hopefully good for team union.
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    "Brass plating" the financial institutions in the event of a "Yes" will not be enough,there will be huge resentment from rUK ,and a rush away from all things Scottish by those South of the border.
    Yes I know,I am a stupid ignorant southern jessie turnip,but I for one will be reorganising my affairs in the event of a "Yes",and I am not alone.
    I hope for a "No",but will deal with a "Yes".
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    SeanT said:

    saddened said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.
    Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.

    A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax, which was then exploited by the devious, amoral, entirely mendacious Alex Salmond.
    LOL. You might as well poll the most Welsh speaking village in North West Snowdonia and decree that the Welsh union is held together by blu tack.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2014
    A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax

    The Devomax sums do not add up. A bunch of scots voting themselves benefits they can't afford and the english won;t pay.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Miss C, fair enough. Aren't we due the next poll (Scotland-wide) in a few hours?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395
    The Borders is very sparsely populated - I should know, I was at school there for a few years - but, still, this is encouraging.

    Rod; what numbers does your national extrapolation churn out off the back of this?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    saddened said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Speedy said:

    This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
    If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.

    @Moniker - informative in what way?
    In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.
    Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.

    A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax, which was then exploited by the devious, amoral, entirely mendacious Alex Salmond.
    This is a poll about 'do you want to be independent and stand on your own two feet' not a poll on 'do you want more power and more free money from England'. Right from the outset there has been more devolution on offer. But that affects the English as well.

    As for the Borders poll. Malcolmg may be happy to be condesending on numbers, but land are counts too (its the land which makes up the country after all) and it would hardly help a newly independent Scotland if the greater part of the land area voted No with just a narrow central belt voting Yes.
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    This bad boy from ComRes not enough for you Rob?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)

    Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.
    Nationalism frequently ends in division, poison and tears. Salmond appeals to emotions, things like love, hate, jealousy, greed. Nationalism often tends to be a selfish movement, narrow minded and intolerant.

    Salmond is hoodwinking people into thinking patriotism is the same as nationalism. They are not, one is benign, the other, which he espouses is a cancerous growth devouring reason to feed it's passion.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044
    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    JBriskin said:

    saddened said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]

    Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.

    Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?
    . If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.

    True it will give the no camp the opportunity to start their we told you so campaign. Let's face it Salmond promising a unicorn for every voter is going to rapidly come unstuck when it meets reality head on. The idea that everybody is going to come together behind the great leader in a mass outpouring of emotion is laughable.
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    @Andy

    Agree. And the fact Murdoch hasnt leak
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
    @Andy. Agree and the fact Murdoch hasn't leaked the poll is a good omen IMO.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    Yes. 1951
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    JosiasJessop said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    For those not in the East, Andrew Sinclair is BBC Look East's political correspondent.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Scottish independence: voting intention across Scotland mapped
    Voting intention data mapped across Scotland shows that the race remains too close to call"

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.

    And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)
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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    North East Essex
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    saddened said:

    JBriskin said:

    saddened said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]

    Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.

    Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?
    . If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.

    True it will give the no camp the opportunity to start their we told you so campaign. Let's face it Salmond promising a unicorn for every voter is going to rapidly come unstuck when it meets reality head on. The idea that everybody is going to come together behind the great leader in a mass outpouring of emotion is laughable.
    I was initially arguing that it's a mess now - and it will be a mess then (post next Friday)

    Congratulations - you have inspired my inner devils advocate.

    I honestly don't think it can get much worse than now - things can only get better. If it's a yes then obviously people won't be going all pro-eck all of a sudden. But at least it will give them some economic/high politic ideology to work on - rather than - well whatever the F is happening now.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    I'm at London bridge now. Parts of the station still open and some trains runining, so probably nothing too serious.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Easteross my apologies for the delayed response, but thank you for your erudite response about Mrs T. Great and informative anecdotes about her involvement in Scottish affairs.

    I do think the Conservative Party's passion for unionism, well this type of unionism, is an illogical weakness.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395
    It's possible the result on the day will end up very close to the long-term polling average: something like 58-42 NO/YES on an 80% turnout.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO.
    And vice versa, maybe....

    However the enormous registration numbers mean we can't take anything for granted until the 19th. This vote is sui generis. Very difficult to poll.

    One poll this year has put Yes ahead. If the number remains at one it seems like a no-brainer to me that No will win.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.

    And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)

    But that means ICM should be on the Guardian website before midnight.
    No, the fieldwork will finish tonight, they will publish it on their website tomorrow, for publication for the Saturday print edition.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    From my experience on the ground, so to speak - it's mainly just anti-labour. Sorry, commenting on a website like this I should maybe know more - but I don't.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Boab said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.

    As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.

    They have ran this poll twice previously....

    They had it....

    71/31
    70/30


    Aha!

    It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.

    But it does got that swing, even if a bit MOEishly.

    Fieldwork 3-9 Sept and the previous polls were June and January.

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    __Bobajob____Bobajob__ Posts: 144
    SeanT said:

    London Bridge Station evacuated.... just now according to C4....

    and it is 9/11

    I'm deep in the suburbs now Sean but it's a bomb scare according to Twitter. Some nutter wailing threats too apparently
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    Alistair said:

    Twitter is afire with allegations that Galloway compared either Yes voters or the SNP to Nazi's. Galloway strongly and categorically denies. Unfortunately no live feed of the debate, just the edited version the BBC will put out tonight.

    I got the impression it was Mr G telling the youngsters they'd be speaking German if the UK had ben divided durng WW2 or something. Which is not, of course, the same as equating Yes voters to the Germans, or the SNP to the NSDAP. But whatever it was, it did not go down well. His performance evidently did not satisfy and he was metaphorically told to away and drink his milk (or so I suppose, rather than eat his cereal*).

    *Refers to Patronising BT Lady TV ad, for those who don't know.

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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    London Bridge Station evacuated.... just now according to C4....

    and it is 9/11

    History shows that London Bridge Station is always beiung evacuated. Amazingly in the midst of all this and to unexpected indefference, Oscar Pistorius has been found Not Guilty of murder.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    Aberdonians fear and loathe central belt dominance above all else. Their opinion of Glaswegians isn't high.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.

    And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)

    But that means ICM should be on the Guardian website before midnight.
    No, the fieldwork will finish tonight, they will publish it on their website tomorrow, for publication for the Saturday print edition.
    Ah. OK. Ta.

    So just one poll tonight. YouGov. What time does that normally emerge? Whenever Rupert is woken up for his milky tea and biscuit?
    Last time it was on the Times website at 8.30pm, but I expect we'll have something by 10pm
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    My bestie is here so time for Retail Therapy.

    Byeeee!!!!!!!
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    __Bobajob__ said:

    @Andy

    Agree. And the fact Murdoch hasnt leak

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
    @Andy. Agree and the fact Murdoch hasn't leaked the poll is a good omen IMO.
    He could be busy.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    Quite. A caveat, though - that's much more for the FPTP system at Westminster, not the Holyrood system.

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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    JosiasJessop said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    Isn't it more the case that Aberdeen is the richest part of Scotland (oil), so they often vote for the "Tartan Tories" - the SNP - to keep out Labour?

    However when it comes to indy we know the middle classes are firmly NO, including Aberdeen.
    Being on the ground, so to speak - I feel the need to add to this with my (as ever, all over the place, understanding)

    Aberdeen Shire - Is choocheterville, therefore Anti-labour, Therefore SNP (Salmond), Tory or Lib Dem.

    Aberdeen - Labour

    I have faith that the fabulous North East of Scotland will vote No!!!!

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    audreyanne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
    ComRes aren't a voodoo pollster
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    audreyanne said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    @Andy

    Agree. And the fact Murdoch hasnt leak

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
    @Andy. Agree and the fact Murdoch hasn't leaked the poll is a good omen IMO.
    He could be busy.
    Whispering sweet nothings to his best pal Eck.

    Does anyone know what Mick Pork thinks of this cosy relationship?
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    hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    I am from Aberdeen and my dad was a Lib Dem councillor briefly. This is a wealthy and very independently minded place that distrusts Edinburgh as much as Westminster. It is pro royal due to Braemar, pro the army and mostly rural. In Aberdeen there are some really grim housing estates. Many more than you would expect. No this is not SNP heartland but will have some pockets of SNP strength. This is the kind of place which does not take arrogance or half truths well.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    audreyanne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
    ComRes aren't a voodoo pollster
    Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the second reference: the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    Yeah, you get that from the polls where they break down Y/N for supporters of each party.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    audreyanne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    audreyanne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
    ComRes aren't a voodoo pollster
    Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.
    It isn't, it is properly weighted for the region, has a proper sample size.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    From the Betfair money people are expecting bad news for Yes from the Poll
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    TheWatcher said:

    audreyanne said:

    __Bobajob__ said:

    @Andy

    Agree. And the fact Murdoch hasnt leak

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
    @Andy. Agree and the fact Murdoch hasn't leaked the poll is a good omen IMO.
    He could be busy.
    Whispering sweet nothings to his best pal Eck.

    Does anyone know what Mick Pork thinks of this cosy relationship?
    He's closing his eyes and thinking of Scotland.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: EXCL: M&S poised to go over parapet. Marc Bolland to sign joint letter from retailers warning on rising costs if Scotland votes Yes #scotref

    Bluffing Tipping Point
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    So why doesnt the Foreign Secretary know what Govt policy re air strikes in Syria is?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    And it's gone already!

    Hectic market.

    Quite often it looks like it is withdrawn rather than taken. Lots of (big) money seems to be appearing and disappearing above and below the current price.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Almost everywhere south of Edinburgh and Glasgow is likely to vote No, with one or two exceptions. Kilmarnock might be one.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,831
    AndyJS said:

    Pretty much fits in with my prediction by area.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0

    (I need to increase the electorate slightly to fit in with today's announcement that 4.3 million are registered to vote).

    I note with interest your predictions concerning the Scottish referendum. You may be interested to know that a young statistician (not me, obviously) from Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland gave a presentation last week in the RSS Conference on predicting it: he came up with similar figures to yours, incidentally. The link to the presentation is here (https://rss.conference-services.net/programme.asp?conferenceID=4023&action=prog_list&session=29966 ) but you will have to google hm further if you want the details.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    SeanT said:

    And it's gone already!

    Hectic market.

    It is astonishing, look at the matched bets for the following markets

    Next GE most seats 437k

    Next GE overall winner 270k

    Indy ref winner £6.1million
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In 1987 the SNP lost both of its longstanding MPs to Labour but picked up 3 seats from the Tories in the north-east. The 32 year-old Salmond was one of them in Banff & Buchan.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    And it's gone already!

    Hectic market.

    It is astonishing, look at the matched bets for the following markets

    Next GE most seats 437k

    Next GE overall winner 270k

    Indy ref winner £6.1million
    well that's a turnip for the books.
This discussion has been closed.