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  • You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    So why doesnt the Foreign Secretary know what Govt policy re air strikes in Syria is?

    Is this from channel 4? The policy is clear - Hammond clarified today, we're not airstriking - I saw it on the sky ticker.

  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    I am from Aberdeen and my dad was a Lib Dem councillor briefly. This is a wealthy and very independently minded place that distrusts Edinburgh as much as Westminster. It is pro royal due to Braemar, pro the army and mostly rural. In Aberdeen there are some really grim housing estates. Many more than you would expect. No this is not SNP heartland but will have some pockets of SNP strength. This is the kind of place which does not take arrogance or half truths well.
    I'm also from Aberdeen.

    You've given a fair and honest account I'd say.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    Priorities.
  • SeanT said:

    And it's gone already!

    Hectic market.

    It is astonishing, look at the matched bets for the following markets

    Next GE most seats 437k

    Next GE overall winner 270k

    Indy ref winner £6.1million
    well that's a turnip for the books.
    It is a tipping point for British politics.
  • isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    @Andy

    Agree. And the fact Murdoch hasnt leak

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?

    Two, I believe. YouGov and ICM.
    If they're both No the Yes campaign is in trouble IMO. There's no point in having "momentum" if you're stuck in second place.
    @Andy. Agree and the fact Murdoch hasn't leaked the poll is a good omen IMO.
    He could be busy.
    Whispering sweet nothings to his best pal Eck.

    Does anyone know what Mick Pork thinks of this cosy relationship?
    He's closing his eyes and thinking of Scotland.
    Do you think Alec from Edinburgh will be one of next weeks Page 3 stunners?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    That makes sense, but it's just the scale of the mismatch that seems bizarre. I mean, in the 2011 Scottish election, the SNP's performance in Aberdeenshire was virtually North Korean-like (64% in one seat and 67% in another).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    better get writing fast, I'm leaking it in 10 minutes
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
    ComRes aren't a voodoo pollster
    Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.
    It isn't, it is properly weighted for the region, has a proper sample size.
    OK as a regional poll, but it's sooooo full of problems re. weighting and then people erroneously extrapolating from it. A poll solely of the south of Scotland is, at this stage of the campaign, a bit daft. The last one for comparison was three months ago. They'd have done better keeping the 1000 sample size and making it a properly weighted national poll for comparison with their own and other national indy polls.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
  • You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    better get writing fast, I'm leaking it in 10 minutes
    Mike's writing the thread, I'm merely the messenger
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?

    A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.
    Isn't it more the case that Aberdeen is the richest part of Scotland (oil), so they often vote for the "Tartan Tories" - the SNP - to keep out Labour?

    However when it comes to indy we know the middle classes are firmly NO, including Aberdeen.
    I'm from Aberdeen and steadfastly vote Conservative.

    I've never been able to bring myself to tactical vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pppolitics: ComRes poll shows NO on 66% - further cut in odds for Scots to vote NO to independence http://t.co/q2UjrhAOa9 #indyref
  • Hmm. The desire for independence is trending on Twitter.

    Catalan independence, that is, under the hashtag #CatalansVote9N. Apparently 1.8m people were marching on the streets of Barcelona.

    I wonder how much the result and the fact a vote and campaign is being held in Scotland will affect Catalan opinion and that in Madrid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    On topic

    ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h

    New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref

    In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.
    ComRes aren't a voodoo pollster
    Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.
    It isn't, it is properly weighted for the region, has a proper sample size.
    OK as a regional poll, but it's sooooo full of problems re. weighting and then people erroneously extrapolating from it. A poll solely of the south of Scotland is, at this stage of the campaign, a bit daft. The last one for comparison was three months ago. They'd have done better keeping the 1000 sample size and making it a properly weighted national poll for comparison with their own and other national indy polls.
    What are the problems with the weighting?
  • While regions are maybe not the same the Survation had 60% / 40% for the South of Scotland so this is a good poll for No.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    better get writing fast, I'm leaking it in 10 minutes
    Mike's writing the thread, I'm merely the messenger
    Does that mean if it's bad news we get to shoot you ?
  • futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    I was disappointed he didn't mention Malleus Scotorum, Vote No, or as next Tory leader, I'm campaigning on a platform of being Malleus Scotorum
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    I was disappointed he didn't mention Malleus Scotorum, Vote No, or as next Tory leader, I'm campaigning on a platform of being Malleus Scotorum
    well you could make it worse, Malleus Scrotorum delivers more intent.
  • You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    better get writing fast, I'm leaking it in 10 minutes
    Mike's writing the thread, I'm merely the messenger
    Does that mean if it's bad news we get to shoot you ?
    No, think of the threads I will be writing post the referendum.

    I've got a special one, which will amuse many.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
    I didn't defend it I just said why I thought it had happened. They drove people down there in an old van, probably forgot what it said on it

    The report made it sound as if they'd painted it thinking that clacton was in the North East which is obviously not the case

    Couldn't care less about your credit... If you think it's a blow for ukip you can back the Tories at massive odds to beat them

  • Mr. Eagles, I shall prepare myself for some more woeful misunderstandings of classical history...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    I was disappointed he didn't mention Malleus Scotorum, Vote No, or as next Tory leader, I'm campaigning on a platform of being Malleus Scotorum
    well you could make it worse, Malleus Scrotorum delivers more intent.
    I nearly did a piece last year, headlined, will Boris' scrotum be the hammer to his political ambitions.

    It was following this story.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2328067/Boris-Johnsons-secret-lovechild-daughter-Stephanie-victory-publics-right-know.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
    I didn't defend it I just said why I thought it had happened. They drove people down there in an old van, probably forgot what it said on it

    The report made it sound as if they'd painted it thinking that clacton was in the North East which is obviously not the case

    Couldn't care less about your credit... If you think it's a blow for ukip you can back the Tories at massive odds to beat them

    "Probably forgot what it said on it."

    UKIP professionalism.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: The only brass plaque tonight is being screwed down on coffin of @AlexSalmond economic policy @dannyalexander tells Lib Dem rally

    Teehee
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll

    You typed the above in less than 4 secs?

    Or are you multi tasking?
    Multi-tasking.

    I was meant to be at the cinema tonight, but rescheduled my plans so I can bring PBers and Mike the YouGov polling.
    better get writing fast, I'm leaking it in 10 minutes
    Mike's writing the thread, I'm merely the messenger
    Does that mean if it's bad news we get to shoot you ?
    No, think of the threads I will be writing post the referendum.

    I've got a special one, which will amuse many.
    Eckus - podex et maximus ?
  • Mr. Eagles, I shall prepare myself for some more woeful misunderstandings of classical history...

    Well I do compare Alex Salmond to Hannibal
  • Mr. Eagles, I pity the fool who fails to appreciate the military prowess of Hannibal.

    Anyway, I'm off.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Mr. Eagles, I shall prepare myself for some more woeful misunderstandings of classical history...

    Well I do compare Alex Salmond to Hannibal
    Carthaginian or Lecter?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Nevertheless, I seem to recall that Calgacus said, desertam faciunt et pacem appellant ...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    For those of us who'll be out of the country on 18/19th September, will there be live streaming of any of the results programmes available internationally?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2014

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Pedants' corner: the Scots were still in Ulster at the time . They were tangling with the Picts - sort of a Welshy lot.
  • Mr. Eagles, I shall prepare myself for some more woeful misunderstandings of classical history...

    Well I do compare Alex Salmond to Hannibal
    Carthaginian or Lecter?
    The overrated, inept military commander from Carthage
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Michael Crick on C4: 17% of votes are postal and 80% of those have already been cast.
  • AndyJS said:

    For those of us who'll be out of the country on 18/19th September, will there be live streaming of any of the results programmes available internationally?

    If you give him your phone number, I'm sure Malcolm will give you a personal vote by vote report, and his own commentary for free.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Nevertheless, I seem to recall that Calgacus said, desertam faciunt et pacem appellant ...
    solitudinem

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Nevertheless, I seem to recall that Calgacus said, desertam faciunt et pacem appellant ...
    and you thought teary westminster was bad.
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    Good to know that Kim Jong Eck is being backed by his North Korean namesake as one supreme leader to another
  • I've just noticed this postscript on UKPR :

    "There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections."

    Shame on them ..... bloody penny-pinchers!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I was able to watch the 2011 Scottish elections live on the STVplayer when I was in Boston.
    AndyJS said:

    For those of us who'll be out of the country on 18/19th September, will there be live streaming of any of the results programmes available internationally?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    welshowl said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Pedants' corner: the Scots were still in Ulster at the time . They were tangling with the Picts - sort of a Welshy lot.
    quite so. The welsh were the scots and the scots were irish, so to speak.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped

    Potentially fascinating map - though the graphic designer had a rather odd way of doing it, unless his data restricted him. One can't sense the boundary. Nor does it allow for population: the Isles in particular seem prone to statistical fluctuation of small populations.
  • SeanT said:

    I've just noticed this postscript on UKPR :

    "There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections."

    Shame on them ..... bloody penny-pinchers!

    I'm sure somebody will do one. The publicity alone would make it worth the outlay.

    Meanwhile, I have an image of Alex Salmond in Bute House, staring at his mobile. Waiting for the booty call from Uncle Rupert.
    Nope, it costs a lot of money, and takes a lot of planning, which can't be done in the last week.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I was able to watch the 2011 Scottish elections live on the STVplayer when I was in Boston.

    AndyJS said:

    For those of us who'll be out of the country on 18/19th September, will there be live streaming of any of the results programmes available internationally?

    Thanks.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Pedants' corner: the Scots were still in Ulster at the time . They were tangling with the Picts - sort of a Welshy lot.
    quite so. The welsh were the scots and the scots were irish, so to speak.
    And when is Alex Salmond going to recognise the naked aggression inflicted by Kenneth McAlpin on the innocent Pictish/Welsh of Strathclyde and Dumfries and Galloway and hand these lands back to their rightful government in Cardiff say I? ;-)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    "65+ segment in ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef phone poll divide 62% NO to 19% YES & say they're 87% certain to vote"

    The June figures are 71% NO 15% YES 71% certain to vote.

    High turnout favours Eck.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Ishmael_X said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Nevertheless, I seem to recall that Calgacus said, desertam faciunt et pacem appellant ...
    solitudinem

    Thanks!! That's it - it seemed wrong somehow.



  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    If YOU GOV tonight ,the only polling company so far showing yes in the lead,gives no the lead then the yes campaign is toast.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Pedants' corner: the Scots were still in Ulster at the time . They were tangling with the Picts - sort of a Welshy lot.
    quite so. The welsh were the scots and the scots were irish, so to speak.
    And when is Alex Salmond going to recognise the naked aggression inflicted by Kenneth McAlpin on the innocent Pictish/Welsh of Strathclyde and Dumfries and Galloway and hand these lands back to their rightful government in Cardiff say I? ;-)
    Not to mention the Votadini/Gododdin wanting their land back ...
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I've just noticed this postscript on UKPR :

    "There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections."

    Shame on them ..... bloody penny-pinchers!

    I'm sure somebody will do one. The publicity alone would make it worth the outlay.

    Meanwhile, I have an image of Alex Salmond in Bute House, staring at his mobile. Waiting for the booty call from Uncle Rupert.
    Nope, it costs a lot of money, and takes a lot of planning, which can't be done in the last week.
    But do you know Sky aren't doing one? It seems an obvious move, as it would strengthen their claim to equality with the BBC - hey look, we did what the so-called national broadcaster didn't do.

    And if they had an exit poll they would then grab all the indyref viewers from the off. "Tune in for our exit poll, coming soon".

    Millions would switch, and wait.

    Their advertisers would love it. I'd be quite surprised if Sky News - who do not lack money - haven't thought about it.

    I think they have also ruled one out.

    The UK General Election was co funded by Sky, BBC and ITV.

    I think the logistics rule out commissioning one this close to the referendum/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Ishmael_X said:

    "65+ segment in ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef phone poll divide 62% NO to 19% YES & say they're 87% certain to vote"

    The June figures are 71% NO 15% YES 71% certain to vote.

    High turnout favours Eck.

    That has to be disentangled from a genuine shift to Yes, rather than just being based on differential turnout.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I've just noticed this postscript on UKPR :

    "There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections."

    Shame on them ..... bloody penny-pinchers!

    I'm sure somebody will do one. The publicity alone would make it worth the outlay.

    Meanwhile, I have an image of Alex Salmond in Bute House, staring at his mobile. Waiting for the booty call from Uncle Rupert.
    Nope, it costs a lot of money, and takes a lot of planning, which can't be done in the last week.
    But do you know Sky aren't doing one? It seems an obvious move, as it would strengthen their claim to equality with the BBC - hey look, we did what the so-called national broadcaster didn't do.

    And if they had an exit poll they would then grab all the indyref viewers from the off. "Tune in for our exit poll, coming soon".

    Millions would switch, and wait.

    Their advertisers would love it. I'd be quite surprised if Sky News - who do not lack money - haven't thought about it.

    Perhaps they thought it was a foregone conclusion.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Carnyx said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Carnyx said:

    futue te ipsum jacobellum ?

    or perhaps you'd like to suggest a suitable verse from Catullus.
    Tacitus might be more appropriate!
    no Tacitus was just too nice to the scots - much like Agricola ;-)


    Pedants' corner: the Scots were still in Ulster at the time . They were tangling with the Picts - sort of a Welshy lot.
    quite so. The welsh were the scots and the scots were irish, so to speak.
    And when is Alex Salmond going to recognise the naked aggression inflicted by Kenneth McAlpin on the innocent Pictish/Welsh of Strathclyde and Dumfries and Galloway and hand these lands back to their rightful government in Cardiff say I? ;-)
    Not to mention the Votadini/Gododdin wanting their land back ...
    Well that really would upset Edinburgh's financial service sector! Think we can all agree on that .

    Think they ended up migrating to Gwynedd so their descendants are still Welsh.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Carnyx said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped

    Potentially fascinating map - though the graphic designer had a rather odd way of doing it, unless his data restricted him. One can't sense the boundary. Nor does it allow for population: the Isles in particular seem prone to statistical fluctuation of small populations.

    Hooray! Someone else has had more sense ...

    http://s1252.photobucket.com/user/photobucket114/media/voting_intentions_zpsc9720db0.png.html
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    @AndyJS Andy, how did you come up with your council area projections?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No exit poll means it'll be a lot more exciting waiting for the real votes to be counted. They're so accurate these days that they take a lot of the interest out of election night. 2005 election: exit poll predicted a 66 seat Labour majority, which is precisely what it was. Same thing in 2010.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped

    Potentially fascinating map - though the graphic designer had a rather odd way of doing it, unless his data restricted him. One can't sense the boundary. Nor does it allow for population: the Isles in particular seem prone to statistical fluctuation of small populations.

    Hooray! Someone else has had more sense ...

    http://s1252.photobucket.com/user/photobucket114/media/voting_intentions_zpsc9720db0.png.html
    ARGH. who the f*** made the map such that there is no division at 50%, and the No side has a wider range of colours. Imbeciles.
  • The Political Editor of the Sun tweets

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 41s

    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The Political Editor of the Sun tweets

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 41s

    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.

    Extrapolating from Survation tweet I predict no change.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
    When its costs are estimated as anything up to £70billion (and the DoT put it at £43billion). £43 billion buys an awful lot of ordinary transport upgrades like the A14 upgrade. If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project that many think then clearly that money could have been better spent improving the transport links for many whole counties instead of just a few cities. To pretend otherwise is extremely disingenuous.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    SeanT said:

    Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!

    @tnewtondunn 1m
    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.

    surely a rollercoaster would imply its moving the other way. So No slightly up...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    SeanT said:

    I'm taking that Newton Dunn tweet to mean it is close, whoever is leading.

    As long as the Yes lead isn't getting bigger ;-)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    We are literally all sitting at our computers, constantly reloading "YouGov" on Twitter, are we not?

    I am also checking where the money is on BetFair
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    SeanT said:

    We are literally all sitting at our computers, constantly reloading "YouGov" on Twitter, are we not?

    I have it on my ipad besides my computer, occasionally swiping down to update :')
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    SeanT said:

    We are literally all sitting at our computers, constantly reloading "YouGov" on Twitter, are we not?

    With Betfair open on the other tab....
  • Tom Newton Dunn is a git

    Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 3m

    @tnewtondunn @YouGov give us a clue

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 35s

    @nicholaswatt @YouGov No. Or should that be Yes?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I completely underestimated how far the market would go on the Survation result, I will not make the same mistake again.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    My random, stab-in-the-dark guess is Y49/51N
  • Just remember, YouGov (and News International) do not send out embargoed copies to anyone.

    So, there are going to be very few leaks, unlike with the survation and TNS-BMRB
  • isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
    When its costs are estimated as anything up to £70billion (and the DoT put it at £43billion). £43 billion buys an awful lot of ordinary transport upgrades like the A14 upgrade. If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project that many think then clearly that money could have been better spent improving the transport links for many whole counties instead of just a few cities. To pretend otherwise is extremely disingenuous.
    "... anything up to £70billion"

    Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.

    "If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"

    There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.

    "Just a few cities"

    The biggest cities in England.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I have to say that Rollercoaster does suggest Yes down. I'm going with statistical tie. Yes price to collapse on BetFair, out to 6 at least.
  • FF42 said:

    Good to know that Kim Jong Eck is being backed by his North Korean namesake as one supreme leader to another

    If the poll is to be believed could we be looking at the start of the campaign for the partitioning of Scotland with British separatists in the border counties demanding to remain with the Union (after all why should an independent Scotland retain its UK regional border?). That would then leave Kim Jong Eck master of 'North Scotland'?
  • SeanT said:

    Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!

    @tnewtondunn 1m
    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.

    I read it as meaning that Yes has plummeted as dramatically as it has rocketed but a week is still a long time in politics.
  • Pong said:

    SeanT said:



    With Betfair open on the other tab....

    And IG in a third tab for live currency pricing
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Must be ok news for No - Murdoch's gone quiet. ..
  • SeanT said:

    Must be ok news for No - Murdoch's gone quiet. ..

    Apparently the Sunday Times was furious that Rupe leaked the news early, so that might explain his monastic silence, tonight.
    PB loved it, led to 900 comments in a few hours on Saturday afternoon/evening.
  • SeanT said:

    Must be ok news for No - Murdoch's gone quiet. ..

    Apparently the Sunday Times was furious that Rupe leaked the news early, so that might explain his monastic silence, tonight.

    Maybe they didn't tell him this time.

  • bazzbazz Posts: 16
    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 20m
    Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members

    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 15m
    Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?

    My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.
    They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggie
    Yes, I'm sure the good people of Clacton will like being mistaken for living in the northeast.It shows contempt for them.

    Besides, it's a bogus argument. Firstly, since when did an infrastructure project have to benefit all parts of the country? Should we not have the Kingskerswell Bypass because it does not benefit Kent? The A14 upgrade here in Cambridge because it does not benefit Mancunians?

    Secondly, UKIP wanted several high-speed lines in their laughable 2010 manifesto.

    Thirdly, it does benefit parts of the northeast.

    You might get a little more credit if you occasionally said: "Oops!" instead of religiously defending anything UKIP.
    "... anything up to £70billion"

    Anyone who believes that figure needs serious education.

    "If it turns out to be the White Elephant vanity project"

    There is a real problem that needs solving. May I suggest you read the relevant documentation.

    "Just a few cities"

    The biggest cities in England.
    IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?

    There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.

    So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least when the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    While waiting we could start CALM, the campaign against lazy metaphors, to put a stop to this rollercoaster nonsense.
  • bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    While waiting we could start CALM, the campaign against lazy metaphors, to put a stop to this rollercoaster nonsense.

    Don;t be such a wet blanket....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    You need serious manpower to get it completed in a reasonable time frame.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    You need serious manpower to get it completed in a reasonable time frame.
    I'd say.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So I've just realised, with no exit polls there'll be no way for the morning papers to call it if the final polling is close. They'll have gone to print before even the first results are out won't they?

  • IIRC Isn't the 70 billion figure the Treasury figure that has been rationalised to include inflation over the period of the project and therefore is a reasonable estimate of the actual end cost at the end of the project?

    There may be a real problem but turning the likes of Birmingham into a dormitory for London (which is primarily what HS1 has done for specific Kent towns) is not the answer to the problem that it is supposed to fix.

    So on we go with the continual polarisation around a handful of increasingly unmanageable and relatively expensive urban centres where the quality of life is dubious to say the least the Tories have expressed time and time again that they wish to re-balance the economy. Have they ever heard of dis-economies of scale?

    The £70bn figure is *alleged* to be a treasury figure, as told be someone to someone. But you never measure projects in such a manner; it's not the way it is done. So every alternative project would also have to be calculated in that manner for comparison.

    In addition, it is widely believed to have been plucked out of someone's backside.

    Cities and towns outside the main HS2 routes benefit from having 'traditional' trains join them at places like Crewe, and running high-speed down to London.

    Your arguments are ones of non-progress. Would you have been against the GWR in the early 1830s?
  • RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    The response rate can be quite poor, so you might have to ring 10,000 people to get 1,000 responses.

  • bazzbazz Posts: 16
    how long per phone call? 15 minutes including time to find somebody who answers the phone....so average minimum wager can survey, say 30 people in an 8 hour shift...so 30 staff could get the job done...pay them each £80-£100 per day..it's a good earner for the pollsters...£3k on wages, £1500 on phone calls computer stuff...sounds like a high margin business...you would need a few boffins to crunch the numbers as well of course, and a PR team...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    edited September 2014

    RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    The response rate can be quite poor, so you might have to ring 10,000 people to get 1,000 responses.

    So £10 per call.. probably takes on average 5 minutes per call (taking into account those very quick calls where the other end doesn't pick up)... think I should get in on this game at £120 an hour!
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh god. This sounds bad for NO. Or maybe I am being paranoid!

    @tnewtondunn 1m
    It's been a rollercoaster week - but it's not over yet. Stay tuned for our latest @YouGov poll on how Scots will vote; here, at 10pm.

    I read it as meaning that Yes has plummeted as dramatically as it has rocketed but a week is still a long time in politics.
    I am now a pathetic heap of gin-deprived nerves, but I read it as: the week began well for YES, but then swang back to NO (Survation, all the bank stuff) so this means it's swung AGAIN towards YES. A rollercoaster.

    But I really DO need that bloody gin.
    Well, as someone who has given us good wine tips on the past, what is your gin recommendation? I have been enjoying Sipsmith and Fever Tree, and Tom Collins made with Haymans Old Tom. Recently bought a bottle of Martin Miller's, first impression is that it is more elegant and smooth tasting than Sipsmith whicji has a lot of in-your-face fruity Juniper.

  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    The response rate can be quite poor, so you might have to ring 10,000 people to get 1,000 responses.

    So £10 per call.. probably takes on average 5 minutes per call (taking into account those very quick calls where the other end doesn't pick up)... think I should get in on this game at £120 an hour!
    Phone calls can be quite lengthy. Just look at the questions ICM and other phone pollsters ask, such as VI, and voter ID question
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    shadsy said:

    @AndyJS Andy, how did you come up with your council area projections?

    A wide range of influences, including the 1997 Scottish referendum result.

    It's just my personal prediction, based on having spent most of the last 20 years staring at election statistics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    edited September 2014

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    bazz said:

    does anybody how much a poll costs to do? with, say 1000 participants from a decent firm? (Out of interest, I couldn't afford one from a betting perspective!)

    A phone poll can cost between £20k and 100k.

    Online polls are a lot cheaper.
    Who are they phoning?? Some dodgy premium rate lines, no doubt.
    The response rate can be quite poor, so you might have to ring 10,000 people to get 1,000 responses.

    So £10 per call.. probably takes on average 5 minutes per call (taking into account those very quick calls where the other end doesn't pick up)... think I should get in on this game at £120 an hour!
    Phone calls can be quite lengthy. Just look at the questions ICM and other phone pollsters ask, such as VI, and voter ID question
    That average takes into account the 30 seconds for the call where no one answers. Given it is a 10:1 ratio, you could spend 45 minutes on the line to the 1 out of 10 who responds, to still make it an average of 5 minutes per call.
This discussion has been closed.