Hooray, we can all remain Francophiles for the next 5 years at least – politicalbetting.com

TimT said:

Malmesbury said:

TimT said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

JohnLilburne said:

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It already is de facto involvement with NATO arming Ukrainian and it cannot be ruled out that NATO will be drawn into the conflict at some time

Just repeating your opinion does not make it an unqualified fact in this intractable and unpredictable war, sadly

The Cold War was a series of proxy conflicts where sometimes the USA and Soviet Union would be arming one side or both sides. Ukraine is more like Vietnam or Afghanistan in which the forces of one of the superpowers are faced with what should be an inferior force but which is armed and supplied by the other superpower.

The results of both of those conflicts should give Ukraine some encouragement.

We have to avoid the temptation to become directly involved.

We are discussing this without considering one important thing. What is NATO's war aim? We are all-but belligerent, we must be working towards some end.

The end is the defence of the western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world, and defending it at the first, not last domino. That is a defensive posture; NATO is not being an aggressor.

Yes, but is it the defeat of Russia, the destruction of their Army of Ukraine, a truce on 2014 borders, a bullet in the back of Putin's head, etc, etc.

Ideally, it would result in a Russia who wants to join, and is fully committed to joining that western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world. But there are many acceptable alternatives that fall short of that, where Russia is defanged, required to leave Ukraine and is effectively removed as a threat for the foreseeable.

To many of the hard core Greater Russian Nationalists, the above is tantamount to the extinction of Russia -

Vilain : Respect is everything. Without respect, we are just people. Common, shitty people.

Well, he at least is self-aware.

nico679 said:

What a lovely entrance by Macron and his wife . Very emotional hearing that beautiful rendition of Ode To Joy .

So happy that my parents gave me the chance to keep my EU passport .

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

Anabobazina said:

Le Pen is getting a proper schooli

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

The projection is for Macron to win by 17 points.

Not even close, never mind “painfully close”.

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

Nick Clegg this could have been you if you hadn’t formed the coalition.

What, president of France?

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

I think one poster said Mayotte is 99% Muslim.

DavidL said:

Anabobazina said:

Le Pen is getting a proper schooli

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

The projection is for Macron to win by 17 points.

Not even close, never mind “painfully close”.

Lol. I meant close to my bet (and many others) bet on 60-65% following the tip on here the other day.

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

Wonder if Johnson would really prefer Le Pen. They are similar in many ways, a point @Roger was making on the previous thread.

He would not, because Le Pen is hostile towards NATO.

Jim_Miller said:

From previous thread: Tim T - Thanks for this: "@State go away is not entirely correct. There was an instance in which a Russian Lt Col was required to fire nuclear weapons according to protocol but refused to follow standing orders.

Lt Col Stanislav Petrov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov "

I was vaguely aware of that first example, but couldn't remember enough to find it quickly;

From your Wikipedia link:

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident.[1] On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm.[2]

His subsequent decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,[3] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war which could have wiped out half of the population of the countries involved.

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

Probably offset by the results in Ile de France and Lyon.

Looks like another department has declared, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence - Le Pen 51.45%, Macron 48.55%

Anyone know how that compares with 2017?

Actually, just found it:

2017 - Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

Macron down 10%

Think it's -7% down there?

Carnyx said:

nico679 said:

What a lovely entrance by Macron and his wife . Very emotional hearing that beautiful rendition of Ode To Joy .

So happy that my parents gave me the chance to keep my EU passport .

Jammy sod ... but not complaining that you kept it.

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Lozère 2nd round

2017: Macron 67.0% Le Pen 33.0%
2022: Macron 54.2% Le Pen 45.7%

Réunion & Mayotte landslides for Le Pen

DavidL said:

France 24 now estimating M 58.3. to 58.8. Painfully close.

Interesting given the (very few) results so far suggest more of a swing against Macron.

You have lost, and lost badly.

Another appalling tip from you ramping the right. I suggest you refrain from promoting your political betting tips in future.

Yawn. Do you ever put betting tips on yourself?

Ps how's your "Virginia would never go Republican" comment looking?

PPS oh yes, and Alaska could go Democrat - LOL. Standing in a greenhouse...

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Corse-du-Sud
2017: Macron 50.6%
2022: Macron 41.7%

Haute-Corse
2017: Macron 52.3%
2022: Macron 42.1%

So, that's the first Metropolitan region to be carried by Le Pen.

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence was first I believe (I transposed 2022 numbers)

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

DavidL said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

More than 40% of Americans voted for something worse.

FF43 said:

glw said:

Roger said:

There you have it. A straight line from Farage through Johnson to Le Pen. France have rejected the far right. The UK have embraced it

You really are a massive dope. Johnson is a poor PM, but not even in the same league as Le Pen. It's completely nuts that 40% of the French voters will back a fascist.

I would say Johnson and Le Pen ended up in a similar political space, having come on different journeys, with Le Pen softening the fascist tendencies of her inheritance while Johnson rode the populist tiger. They are both insurgents from within the elite, they have similar views of their respective countries' place in the world and how other countries should deal with them, similar views on the role of the State, sovereignty in their view is absolute and what they decide it to be, both previously rather keen on Trump and Putin (but Johnson is better at the pivot). Both are opportunists and chaotic in their behaviours.